Looking at this, I see economic diversification if not why would an oil rich city want to go into Crypto mining. They have seen the future of the new world economy and are beginning to set up something in anticipation so as not to be taken unawares.
You don't need a Bitcoin-led new world order to start mining today, because mining is quite profitable when you have cheap electricity. And having a mining operation today won't give you a lot of edge in the future, because mining equipment becomes obsolete with time when more efficient miners get released. So I doubt that they bet on a Bitcoin revolution, they are just making a rational decision today. |
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There was never such chance to begin with, because bull market only starts around or after the halvening. And it takes some time to reach the peak of the previous bull market. And I suspect this time it would be way harder to achieve that, because halvenings play smaller role in reducing supply. Well over 90% of all coins are already mined. So 69K shouldn't be viewed as a given, it's would be a significant milestone if/when it will be reached again.
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How the P2P scams happen
One way P2P scammers steal user data is with the help of fake crypto-centered channels on Telegram that promise high profits or airdrops. Many gullible users looking to make a quick profit often join these channels and share their personal banking information. In many other cases, the scammer simply buys or steals the user’s personal information.
The stolen data is then used to create a P2P account on any popular P2P platform — Binance and WazriX are common in India.
The scammer then initiates a buy order on the P2P platform looking for unsuspecting sellers. Once they match with a seller, they send the money to the seller using the victim’s account. Thus, they complete the P2P transaction on the platfrom where the buyer receives the cryptocurrency and the seller receives the money in their bank account.
The buyer (scammer) then vanishes with the crypto and the victim whose bank account was used to send the money only realizes it after the money has been deducted from their bank account.
Those banks must have really horrible security, because I can't imagine this happening to me even if my government id got leaked to scammers. My banks use fingerprints, face id, phonecalls, email, in-app chat for extra verificiation, and they have risk assesment algorithms. When I make typical transactions, they can processed in an instant, but if something is off, they would do extra verifications to make sure it's really me doing the transaction. People should vote with their wallets and use modern digital banks with secure infrastructure. |
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During economic crashes, EVERYTHING sells off. I mean, everything. Let's go back to 2008..nothing was safe. I remember selling a nice Rado watch because I simply needed the money for like 25% of what I paid for it, because that the best offer I could get. All collectible items were dirt cheap for years (still regretting not buying a Babe Ruth card I really wanted, plus the Michael Jordan rookie card..they were dirt cheap).
Bitcoin is still a highly volatile asset. Not only am I certain it will crash, it will crash harder than most asset classes.
That's the most likely outcome. We already saw Bitcoin crashes tied to macroeconomic indicators, like the crash at the start of covid, or crashes tied to stock market. Bitcoin is a high risk asset, high risk assets are not meant for crisis times, they are meant for calm prosperous times when there are spare money available. |
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TBH its not a big surprise, because from looking at the chart it was clear that the market was about to take a huge move - either up or down. Of course we are all here hodlers and that makes us permabull, so we hoped that only movement up is possible, but you should be always mentally prepared to see a big red candle. After all, the bull run has not started yet.
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In crypto anything can be a scam, because crypto made scamming incredibly easy and safe for scammers. You create a coin, you sell it to people - you legally don't owe them anything, you're not obligated to make it profitable, to make it work. You're just selling a digital asset created out of thin air. Governments can go after ponzi schemes, because they break contracts by not delivering profits, they can't go after crypto because there's no explicit violation of trust. So it doesn't matter if a coin has transparent team, endorsed by experts and so on - they can take your money and legally not owe you anything for it, because you are not investing, you are speculating.
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Some say its influenced by supply and demand but I need more conviction.
This is correct, but it's also not very useful for predicting the price. The price is formed by the current active supply and demand. It changes all the time. If someone decides to dump hundreds or thousands of their coins, they suddenly increase the supply, if they fill the existing buy orders below the current price, the price will go down. If someone brings a lot of fiat and starts buying BTC from the market - they increased demand and the price goes up. It's hard to predict where the price will go, because you can't predict the actions of thousands or millions of individuals. You can't predict how people will react to certain news or to market events. Sometimes Bitcoin is correlated to other markets, sometiems its not. Sometimes it reacts to global events, sometimes its not. We know that Bitcoin tends to have long-term trends, but those trends might not repeat in the future. |
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I think newbies are aware of the dangers of shitcoins and tokens, but the problem is that they tend to think that they are investing in "good project". It's better to assume that all altcoins and tokens are shitcoins because either the devs are scammers who create a coin/token to dump premine, or the coin/token will fail even if devs will honestly work on it, because blockchain doesn't really have any practical applications aside from currency, and we already have Bitcoin, so copying Bitcoin is pointless.
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The government will not allow Bitcoin revolution, be it peacesful or with protests. They need to control the currency because it allows them to form a budget and function. It's possible to work with Bitcoin, but fiat makes things easier for them. They can't stop single invidividual from owning or using Bitcoin, but they can stop larger entities from doing so. If they won't allow them to use Bitcoin, than Bitcoin will have no future as a currency. A currency is only good if it's universally accepted.
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I agree with you that trading is not the best way to go not only for newbies but for veterans also. I don't believe in TA, not even in FA
You're right, technical analysis is basically just a superstition, and fundamental analysis is likely impossible in crypto. First, because the fundamentals are not understood - you can't make a formula of taking a node count and calculating the objective value. Or number of users or any other metric. And second, seems like the market doesn't care about fundamentals at all. You can have 2 identical coins, but one is named after a meme, and its value is 1000 times higher than the other. |
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A few months ago, I was introduced to a free signal channel by someone.
If you get a free product, then you are the product. It should be pretty obvious that no one will share accurate predictions or insider information for free. Instead these channels will typically mislead beginner traders into investing in shitcoins. You just can't trust anyone in trading, it's a zero sum game with no cooperation. |
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Bitcoin is not for everyone, it requires its users to have very high standards of online safety, and old people are a typical target for scammers and hackers. So think twice before preaching Bitcoin to an old person - maybe they would put their life savings into it only to lose it to some scam or malware. If this is your relative, you could manage their coins for them.
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I am wondering when is best to sell and want to make sure I don't sell too early.
The fear of selling too early is often making investors sell too late or worse - not sell at all and wait for another bull run. The bull run starts with a sudden spike and after that lasts for 1-1.5 years, so a good strategy is to wait 1 year from the start of the run. Also, if DCA is popular buying stategy, than the reverse can be an exit strategy - sell some BTC every week of the bull run and you will get the average bull season price. Ofc the best outcome is to sell at the very top, but tops usually last only a day or two, so it's unlikely you would catch them. The average price of a bull season is way higher than the average of the previous bear season, so it's still a great profit. |
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Regulations by the US government could easily affect the price dramatically. But if a country with a small economy and no political weight would do this, the market will ignore that. Regulations by countries with bigger economy, like France or Germany could affect the price, but less than the countries like the US or China. China used to be the cause of FUD when they were regulating Bitcoin and eventually banned it, and since than the market forgot about China, but if tomorrow China announced that they embrace Bitcoin, you could expect a small bull run.
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Bitcoin network's minimum tx fee is way higher than 1 satoshi, so 1 satoshi is unusable on mainnet. LN also has a problem with mass adoption - you need to open a channel by sending transaction on mainnet, Bitcoin can only process 0.3M transactions per day, while there's 8 billion of people in the world - it would take many years for all people in the world to open a channel, and channels might be closed from time to time. So the solution would be to use banks to store Bitcoin and send satoshis through Visa. But that would mean that the system won't be too different from what we have now.
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The idea that Bitcoin is a store of value started getting popular when it became clear that people don't want to use it for payments, and that there are problems with scalability. But this idea remains untested, because we don't know if the current holders are determined to actually store their value in Bitcoin for long term, or if they merely try to profit from bull-bear cycles. The institutional interest is also overrated. It's just one company - Microstrategy, that went big on Bitcoin, and a few other players like Blackrock showing interest in Bitcoin products. There's no hundreds of companies that store their wealth in Bitcoin.
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Some businesses don't want to hold Bitcoin so they use intermediaries that receive Bitcoin for them and convert it to fiat. But not all businesses are like that, some don't mind keeping BTC, so they get they full decentralized experience.
The bigger problem that if you want to use Bitcoin, often you just can't, because you can't pay with it, so you have to sell it for fiat. In the past there was a lot of hope that soon mass adoption will come and it will change, but that "soon" never came so far.
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The US Dollar (USD) and Bitcoin (BTC) are two separate but interconnected forces that have been reshaping the financial and economic landscape.
Dollar has been dominating the global economy since WW2. Bitcoin these days is insignificant compared to USD - it has a tiny fraction of its marketcap and even a tinier fraction of transactions. These two organizations stand for opposing ideals—one rooted in conventional financial institutions, the other a forerunner of the digital age.
Financial institutions are not tied to USD. They could operate with Bitcoin if there was demand. Crypto exchanges are financial institutions too. And Bitcoin is not a digital revolution. US dollar has been digital for quite a while. The conflict between the dollar and Bitcoin has prompted discussions about the future of money, investing, and the role of technology in forming financial institutions as the global economy continues to change. My question is this, why does the value of BTC decrease when the value of the dollar rises?
Bitcoin value goes up or down in a chaotic manner, so it could be a coincidence. But there's a strong narrative that Bitcoin is a hedge against inflation, so if dollar is strengthening, there's no need in this function. |
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Bitcoin is changing the payment system in the world right now. Payments made in Bitcoin are always fast to receive and do not days to receive.
Bitcoin is 14 years old now. In their first 14 years other inventions have achieved huge adoption and disrupted their sphere. You just can't say the same about Bitcoin. It's mainly used for speculative trading. People don't use it as money for a variety of reasons. One of them being transaction speed, because 10 minutes is not good enough for small physical purchases. Meanwhile banks these days have instant transactions through Visa and Mastercard. |
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Is it actually possible that BlackRock could co-opt Bitcoin by, hiring their own developers - probably even hire some of the Core Developers, incentivize a hash war, convince/buy into the economic majority to cooperate, start a fork, and declare their fork as Bitcoin?
Their clients would sue them, their reputation would be damaged and all of that for what? To pocket the coins on the other chain, which would probably lose some value after such turmoil? How high would the profit from such scam would be - a few billions? And how would they take them - who would buy their coins? A company that manages trillions in asset is unlikely to engage in such behavior that will be generally counteproductive for them. |
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