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601  Economy / Economics / Re: How Does Stock Work on: April 14, 2011, 02:22:45 AM
Generally it's the board of directors, but if it has a very large impact on the company the shareholders may vote over it. The current shareholders usually has the right to purchase the new shares if they want to. The board of directors is elected by the shareholders. Sorry, but there's no great conspiracy here.

There's no conspiracy, but there's a lot of back scratching.
602  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Can/Will Transactions Ever Be Processed Faster Than Every 10 Minutes? on: April 14, 2011, 02:14:16 AM

Perhaps the one vote per CPU principle is wrong. 


Care to offer an alternative?


I'm just starting to understand how it works.  However, I don't think we should assume everything is perfect as is.
603  Economy / Economics / Re: Get Free Gas by simple correlation on prices. on: April 14, 2011, 12:42:13 AM
Nice try, but you forgot Oil Futures. Just a sec, I will post the link to the overlay. Between Gas and Futures.

No, that is futures.
604  Economy / Economics / Re: Get Free Gas by simple correlation on prices. on: April 14, 2011, 12:21:15 AM
Alright, let just prove it with a few days.

Prices have dropped in the futures market, but prices will continue to go up at the pump for about another 20 days, before they start to fall again.

It is the TTM, that you can take advantage of.


As for the other, dude, businesses run like that for a long time. And once a competitor is run out, there are barriers for re-entry. Especially for independents. They just saw what happen to the previous guy. If you don't come with moola, your toast.



The whole point is that you can take advantage of the TTM in the Gasoline.  There is a corelation between Futures, Spot, TTM, and local gas prices.

Of course you only do it when you see the Futures going up, not down. But the lag in TTM is enough to solidify your position.


Or you could just backtest your theory and realize it fails miserably.  Oil tends to be more extreme in its movements (people cut back on driving which keeps the gas price from going up too much).  Peaks and valleys happen nearly simultaneously.

But good luck on your underground bomb.
605  Economy / Economics / Re: Get Free Gas by simple correlation on prices. on: April 13, 2011, 11:39:57 PM
Quote
Why do you keep bringing up minimums?  You are talking about taking advantage of them having maximum prices.

Why would someone producing more of something charge less?  Another economics assumption you are making?


Ok, this shouldn't come as a surprise to many. But if one is in a better position, financially, you can run your competition out of business by taking a loss over time. It is done all the time. Without collusion, it is simplistic and effective. Once you run out the competition you recoup your losses. By agreeing to minimums, they try to prevent this from happening.

With collusion, it can be devastating.

Station A subsidizes Station B to undercut Station C.  Station C being independent, can't compete. When Station C goes out of business, Station B reimburses Station A.




And then when you raise your prices back up, competition sweeps in and you get crushed again.  It's a terrible way to run a business unless you have artificial barriers to entry.  Who cares if they drive prices low?

Again, this goes back to your claim that it takes 30-60 days for increases in the price of oil to hit the pump.  What does this have to do with minimum prices or artificially low prices?
606  Economy / Economics / Re: Get Free Gas by simple correlation on prices. on: April 13, 2011, 09:47:32 PM
The Leegin case may be interesting to some of you.  The Supreme Court recent upheld contract clauses between manufacturers and retailers that mandated minimum prices:

http://blogs.wsj.com/law/2008/08/18/the-legacy-of-leegin-price-fixing-the-comeback-kid-of-antitrust-law/

Good find, that is what they do.

It is still illegal for them to get together and determine minimum prices. BP, Exxon, Shell, etc.. can't together determine the minimum price for their franchisees.  But that doesn't stop them.  Technically the one producing more should have a lessor price but they don't.

What they do is sort of follow the law. They can't ask each other what their minimums are, but if they overhear it by a non-executive, or get it from a survey, that is perfectly legal.  Guess what gets surveyed every day at almost every gas station in America. Yep the price of Gas and they share that survey with everyone. But that isn't the real problem, the real problem is the agreed upon mark ups for stations.

Which between stations is almost identical.  Exxon-Mobile should let their franchisee's have a bigger mark up but they don't. By adding the NDA to the agreements they even keep stations from confirming.

So every once in a while there will be a Conference where industry professionals will "over hear" the others mark-up agreements. Technically perfectly legal, and very hard to prove collusion.

Why do you keep bringing up minimums?  You are talking about taking advantage of them having maximum prices.

Why would someone producing more of something charge less?  Another economics assumption you are making?
607  Economy / Economics / Re: Get Free Gas by simple correlation on prices. on: April 13, 2011, 07:18:15 PM
For going the individual method.

I will give you a for example:

In the U.S.:

If a gas station fills his underground tank with 10,000 gallons of gas that he bought at $1 a gallon.

Now assume he sells no gas for a month.

Then Gas goes up to $2 a gallon from his supplier.

The Gas that he has in his tank that he bought at $1 a gallon, can not be sold at the $2 price point.

He will have to sell his gas at the $1 rate plus agreed upon mark up until he sells 10,000 gallons. Then he can raise prices. There is an averaging that is allowed, if he receives a delivery before he sells the 10,000 gallons. This is kind of allowing the mixing of fiduciary funds in an insurance account. Most avoid it in case someone complains of gouging.

You can usually see this in work if your town has a lot of gas stations, especially recently with big changes happening fast.

You should have seen one station with several cents difference, some high, some low.  Why does this happen? If it worked as you said, the prices among stations should always be close to each other.



How come gas stations change prices daily?  I know they aren't getting tankers delivering daily.

Gas stations near each other almost always have similar prices where I live.  Occasionally one might be slow to change, and a better "brand" is going to be at a small premium.
608  Economy / Economics / Re: How Does Stock Work on: April 13, 2011, 06:58:18 PM
I added emphasis. Investors may have consented to a company printing new shares when they bought its stock. That doesn't mean that it won't harm them if it does so.

Investors don't need to consent.  Corporations issue new shares by right, because they are corporate 'persons' and they own themselves.  Issuing shares confers no legal rights of ownership.  It is just meaningless claptrap designed to defraud suckers.  It is like fiat money -- a unit of exchange backed by nothing whatsoever that can be created at will.

Of course, thanks to the illustrious dipshits in the US Justice Dept., you can't do anything like printing your own money.  But corporations sure can.  So in the modern US, immortal, psychopathic legal fictions have more rights than actual humans.

A corporation cannot make a decision itself, it's like saying a rock makes a decision.

Someone actually needs to authorize it.  Is it the board of directors?
609  Economy / Economics / Re: Get Free Gas by simple correlation on prices. on: April 13, 2011, 06:57:10 PM
Wal-Mart offers gas as a loss-leader, at something like a 3-5 cent discount.

Regardless, what do you suppose the transport costs are on margins of 5 cents?  Not to mention the labor costs or health costs...

Wal-Mart is in its own category, but they aren't doing it at a loss, just a discount. Big Companies, actually own wells. I developed a field for a company called IP, now I wrongly assumed it was something like International Petroleum or something like that. But it actually turned out to be, International Paper. They bought the lease to offset the cost of fuel. That is just International Paper.

Wal-Mart is big enough to not even to have to buy a well, they can hedge like no tomorrow, just like Airlines.

I like them though, they are truly competing. But look at what it takes to do it. Be the biggest company in America, with enough power to not be pushed around.

And it works, the lines at Sam's are huge with just 5¢ discount. I just want independents to be able to do what Wal-Mart can by eliminating some clauses in Franchise contracts. That anyone who knows about them, can't talk about them. They built in the NDA.

Your entire premise is that you can buy it "cheap" now, and then it takes 30-60 days to go up.  So which is it, are they restricted from making it too cheap, or are they restricted from making it fairly priced and forced to sell it too cheap?  Make up your mind which conspiracy theory you want to subscribe to.

Franchised stations can not by contract under sell it, they are also told what their profit will be from the gas by restricting the maximum price. Do they have to listen? No, but then they don't get to buy it from their supplier and don't get any "support" from them either, and must remove the name.

Individuals, however, you and me. Have no such contracts. We can buy it and do what we wish. And I really don't care about the conspiracy, because as individuals we can bypass the process. We limit our profitability by not being a "business",  but we can maximize our margins. If enough individuals did this, "they" would be force to change.

I look at the futures and the spot price, correlate the TTM (time to market) and suck out the difference.  Gas is one of the few commodities that this can be done with on a individual basis because of access to the end product is abundant and easy  to acquire and re-sell. Technically you could do it with others like corn but it would be much harder because of all the factors (weather, disease, shelf life,  TTM is to long, etc...) And people don't have to buy Corn, but they do have to buy Gas, at least for now.


I still am trying to understand your theory.

1)  Gas station buys a ton of gasoline from supplier for $X.
2)  Oil futures go up by 50% due to some crisis.
3)  Gas station owner would like to raise prices since his next shipment will be more expensive, but cannot due to contract with supplier.  Supplier dictates every price change, which happens daily, even though he may only get his tankers delivering every week.
4)  Eventually he runs out of his gas, buys more from his supplier (30-60 days later), and is now allowed to set his prices higher.

Is there any part of this that I missed?
610  Economy / Economics / Re: Get Free Gas by simple correlation on prices. on: April 13, 2011, 06:40:16 PM
Wal-Mart offers gas as a loss-leader, at something like a 3-5 cent discount.

Regardless, what do you suppose the transport costs are on margins of 5 cents?  Not to mention the labor costs or health costs...

Wal-Mart is in its own category, but they aren't doing it at a loss, just a discount. Big Companies, actually own wells. I developed a field for a company called IP, now I wrongly assumed it was something like International Petroleum or something like that. But it actually turned out to be, International Paper. They bought the lease to offset the cost of fuel. That is just International Paper.

Wal-Mart is big enough to not even to have to buy a well, they can hedge like no tomorrow, just like Airlines.

I like them though, they are truly competing. But look at what it takes to do it. Be the biggest company in America, with enough power to not be pushed around.

And it works, the lines at Sam's are huge with just 5¢ discount. I just want independents to be able to do what Wal-Mart can by eliminating some clauses in Franchise contracts. That anyone who knows about them, can't talk about them. They built in the NDA.

Your entire premise is that you can buy it "cheap" now, and then it takes 30-60 days to go up.  So which is it, are they restricted from making it too cheap, or are they restricted from making it fairly priced and forced to sell it too cheap?  Make up your mind which conspiracy theory you want to subscribe to.
611  Economy / Economics / Re: How Does Stock Work on: April 13, 2011, 06:12:44 PM
Don't worry, they promise to only do it when it is in your best interests.  I thought you agreed that consent was not a good factor by which to judge an outcome?
...consent isn't necessarily the best factor, or even a good factor, by which to judge an outcome.
I added emphasis. Investors may have consented to a company printing new shares when they bought its stock. That doesn't mean that it won't harm them if it does so.

Splitting stock creates more units for the current owners.  Not for the company to give away.
Isn't a company typically a current owner? Does it not have the authority to sell the new shares created after a split?

I'm not sure if it really makes sense for the company to own shares of itself, it's the same thing as if those shares didn't exist.

If you split the shares, everyone gets the split, the value of each share is half of what it was.  Dilution occurs by wanting to give out new shares and *dilute* the value of everyone else.  You are creating something from nothing in that case.

It is counterfeiting in a way, although it's allowed and expected.  Companies that dilute too much will have low valued shares since no one will want to buy any (if their value gets diluted away).  So you might be able to get away with it once or twice, but Wall Street doesn't tolerate that kind of behavior, and no one will touch your stock after that.  So the entire benefit to the person who gets the diluted share turns to nothing since he can't sell it since no everyone is scared it would be diluted again.  But even so, they could take all the dividends and be fine.  I'm not sure who needs to approve of dilution, it may be the board.  So the board really is the voices of the shareholders.  If the board says no dilution, then it doesn't happen.  So really there is some level of consent, although a few powerful people can control the board, and then get all the benefits of dilution.
612  Economy / Economics / Re: Get Free Gas by simple correlation on prices. on: April 13, 2011, 05:47:19 PM
Ok, I will just take my town. The $1 example was extreme just to make the point. In reality just a 5¢ difference would work, a 10¢ difference would be fantastic. Lets say a Convenient store sells 1000 gallons a day at a 1.10 / gallon. The average they get to keep is 7¢ per gallon. So they take in $1100 dollars and get to keep $77 dollars for the mark up. Remember Gas is the lowest mark up at any gas station. The average mark up is at minimum 100% for retail merchandise. So just by selling a few extra candy bars will quickly make up for the Gas.

Lets say they sell 100 candy bars at 1$ at the 1.10 gas price. They make $50 dollars profit off of the Candy Bars alone. Now if they sold the gas at a loss at $1, they have a net loss of 3¢. They give up the 7¢ mark up and take a loss of 3¢.

Now because of their lower prices, their gas sales go up to say $2000 dollars a day at a loss of $60 per day.  So they need to make up at least $60 dollars to break even.

Now traffic doubled, it stands that their in store purchases doubled. But the prices in the store have at least a 100% mark up. But anyone that shops at a convenient store know the mark up is higher than that.

Let me ask, do you thing the store will make more money by taking a 3¢ per gallon hit on the gas and taking a 50% increase on their other items that are marked up at least 100%.

But it gets better, if they make money on that model, and they invest the increase into an interest bearing account on a percentage basis to further subsidize the fuel. It would be funny to buy 10 year T-Notes at 4%, and use the Government to help. (kind of a Gotchya). They will have a model of being able to out compete competitors and put downward pressure on price of others.

Not on a grand Oil Industry Model, but on a Individual Basis with in the Oil Industry Model. So how does the Oil Industry prevent this from happening. Well with Contracts, and Laws that they have lobbied for.  Or like other industries, just buy them out. Actually in other industries their is a model to compete to get bought out. Especially in the electronics industry and internet. Buy your competitors before they can harm your bottom line.

But certain industries have prevented the competition to avoid it.  Banking, Oil, etc...

But as an individual, we can bypass all those things. If many do it on a small scale, they can't stop it.

If only with 20 Gallon gas containers.

If they can get increased business that offsets having a loss-leader in gas, they will do this.  There are some independent owners out there.  Why are they not selling a ton cheaper, crushing competition, and having the other stations get no business?

Good thing Microsoft bought out Google and Ebay before they got too big.

Buying out companies at a premium just for another to show up like wack-a-mole is a very expensive proposition.  Try to think through your nutjob theories before publishing them on the internet, though.  If you have thought through them, try thinking harder.

But I do wish you luck on buying your underground bomb to save $5.
613  Economy / Economics / Re: How Does Stock Work on: April 13, 2011, 05:29:35 PM
That's awful. I always thought that companies would just split their stock if they needed more units.
Splitting stock creates more units for the current owners.  Not for the company to give away.
614  Economy / Economics / Re: Get Free Gas by simple correlation on prices. on: April 13, 2011, 05:07:50 PM
That is the genius behind their system. They lock in the profits to them by preventing others from raising and in some cases lowering the price.

For example, there are truck stops that should have very low gas prices, because they can take profits from their other businesses in the truck stop and self subsidize the gas price to get greater traffic. ( The Casino Model - most loose money on food and beverage but make it up in increased traffic due to the Great Food and prices )

Show me one example of this in the United States, and I will concede to you.  Imagine: a truck stop that could self subsidizes the Gas buy a $1 a gallon. They would make a fortune on Mechanical Services, Restaurant Services, Parts, Gadgets, etc.... because of the increase traffic. The margins on the other sales greatly out weigh the margins on Gas.  So why isn't this occurring?  Because they are not allowed to do it.

The Casino Business Model in just one Gas Franchise would become the number one gas station in the U.S.



This is called a loss-leader.  Not really that uncommon.  Grocery stores do this all the time.  And no, selling gas at a $200 loss per semi-truck would not lead to an increase of $200 in business per customer.

They aren't allowed to do it?  More like they aren't idiots.
615  Economy / Economics / Re: Get Free Gas by simple correlation on prices. on: April 13, 2011, 04:34:34 PM
http://maps.google.com/maps?q=gasoline near 45.45955%2C-101.91356

This is the farthest point from a McDonalds in the US, and all of the gas stations nearby.  But it won't tell you much since prices are determined by supply and demand, and the supply in sparsely-populated areas is usually higher than the supply in big cities.

I thought prices were determined by the vast oil conspiracy?


Examine that, you must buy it. There is little competition. You can easily charge a lot more for it.

When supply is low and demand high, the price should go up.  So at the most remote gas station, the price should be high. We know the demand is there, if there are not a lot of others selling the same product, the price should be high.  But why isn't it?  I have been trying to tell you.

How about this one, in Lake Charles, LA ( the whole town is a Refinery), there is a Circle K gas station sitting in the middle of the refinery right next to the interstate. Supply and Demand should dictate that it should be the lowest.  Nope, one of highest prices in the whole state.

Now, you don't have to go to far to show, "conspiracies" in Louisiana.  Other than Alaska, it should have the lowest gas prices. Alaska has high gas prices too but they pay their citizens royalties of around $2000 a year to offset the prices. Imagine that, you make money just for being a citizen in Alaska.

But if you have asked around at your gas stations, (managers), you will start to see the picture. Prices are dictated to them. When it comes to gas, it is not truly a supply/demand model.

I found the problem.  You have absolutely no understanding of economics.


Me too, You think there is no such thing as collusion, in economic models through use of the Government, Laws, and Competitive communication.

Are you a Keynesian? 

If they were price fixing, why are they price fixing the price too low?  You have all these different ideas and theories, all in conflict with each other.  There is not a consistent train of thought.

And no, I'm not a Keynesian.  But do you listen to Alex Jones?

Collusion can happen, but it's very hard to enforce without governments.  There is too great an incentive to cheat.
616  Economy / Economics / Re: Get Free Gas by simple correlation on prices. on: April 13, 2011, 04:17:00 PM
http://maps.google.com/maps?q=gasoline near 45.45955%2C-101.91356

This is the farthest point from a McDonalds in the US, and all of the gas stations nearby.  But it won't tell you much since prices are determined by supply and demand, and the supply in sparsely-populated areas is usually higher than the supply in big cities.

I thought prices were determined by the vast oil conspiracy?


Examine that, you must buy it. There is little competition. You can easily charge a lot more for it.

When supply is low and demand high, the price should go up.  So at the most remote gas station, the price should be high. We know the demand is there, if there are not a lot of others selling the same product, the price should be high.  But why isn't it?  I have been trying to tell you.

How about this one, in Lake Charles, LA ( the whole town is a Refinery), there is a Circle K gas station sitting in the middle of the refinery right next to the interstate. Supply and Demand should dictate that it should be the lowest.  Nope, one of highest prices in the whole state.

Now, you don't have to go to far to show, "conspiracies" in Louisiana.  Other than Alaska, it should have the lowest gas prices. Alaska has high gas prices too but they pay their citizens royalties of around $2000 a year to offset the prices. Imagine that, you make money just for being a citizen in Alaska.

But if you have asked around at your gas stations, (managers), you will start to see the picture. Prices are dictated to them. When it comes to gas, it is not truly a supply/demand model.

I found the problem.  You have absolutely no understanding of economics.
617  Economy / Economics / Re: Thought experiment: Resetting spendings each month; what would happen? on: April 13, 2011, 03:37:43 PM
There's no need for a thought experiment.  Just look at Zimbabwe, or Germany after WWI.  Your money was worthless by the end of the month (or even sooner), so everyone reset by then.  Everyone ended up being trillionaires or more.
618  Economy / Economics / Re: Get Free Gas by simple correlation on prices. on: April 13, 2011, 03:35:59 PM
http://maps.google.com/maps?q=gasoline near 45.45955%2C-101.91356

This is the farthest point from a McDonalds in the US, and all of the gas stations nearby.  But it won't tell you much since prices are determined by supply and demand, and the supply in sparsely-populated areas is usually higher than the supply in big cities.

I thought prices were determined by the vast oil conspiracy?
619  Economy / Economics / Re: Get Free Gas by simple correlation on prices. on: April 13, 2011, 03:20:01 PM
Yes, I do.  Your right, go along with it. Keep the bubble intact.

I am just Delusional,  Grin   I do like playing chess however. There is no price fixing by mandatory mark ups of 7-11 cents. It just doesn't exist.

Tell you what, go find the most remote gas station in America, call it for its Gas Prices. It should be the most expensive gas in the country. You can subtract all the taxes from everywhere to get the baseline. 

BTW: the biggest reason in differences in prices it the TAXES, the FED, State, and Localities charge.

IF the most remotest gas station in America has the highest or even a high gas price, I will concede.  But it won't.

Why would the remote gas station having the highest prices disprove your point?  You are also forgetting that not all gas is the same.  There are a ton of different blends, etc..., some more costly than others.

I already have disproved your point (that it takes 30-60 days for prices to hit the pumps).  Look at gas prices over time.  Look at a graph of oil futures over time.  The lag is not 30-60 days.  For example, war breaks out in Libya, oil prices rise.  Gas prices will have gone up within a week, maybe even within a day.  You can look at the correlation of the prices, and shift it by different amounts, and see where the greatest correlation occurs.  Use a huge backtest of data to account for seasonal adjustments, refineries coming on and offline, etc...  This is super easy to prove if it were true.  So go ahead and do it, rather than rely on your gut instinct.  With that much money on the line, I can't believe you are so clever that you are the only person to ever figure this out.

Mandatory markups are a completely different issue.

If it was that easy to make money, there is no reason why a gas station owner wouldn't employ this strategy (or just raise his prices immediately ... oh wait, you believe in a vast conspiracy that forces gas stations to lose money), and just close his doors (or close all but 1 pump, or slow down their pumps) during the cheap times, save the gas for later, then sell it then.
620  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Can/Will Transactions Ever Be Processed Faster Than Every 10 Minutes? on: April 13, 2011, 01:25:19 PM
But another question is, why does it have to be that way?  Was it based on technical limitations of having too many blocks if there was 1 per minute or 1 per second?

It's to allow for high latency between nodes. If it was one minute, a few seconds of latency between ends of the network could give someone with good network resources a better chance of winning blocks, damaging the "one vote per CPU" principle.

Also, remember that a confirmation is valuable because it represents some CPU power. If it took a minute on average to get a confirmation, you'd have to get 10 confirmations to match the protection of a single 10-minute confirmation. 1-minute confirmations might even be less valuable than 0 confirmations in such a system because it could be cheaper for an attacker to solve the required number of blocks than to overcome the TCP network.

Perhaps the one vote per CPU principle is wrong.  Network speed is a hugely valuable part of the system.  I want those finding blocks to have fast connections.  I need to really put effort into understanding how someone could double-spend to really understand the problem well, though.

But perhaps it's better to think about BitCoin as a "between-bank" system for larger transfers done less often, rather than down to the individual.  You of course could do it down to the individual for transactions that may take a while and you don't care (which actually is a lot of them, any time someone writes a check, it's pretty much the same thing).  A separate solution would be needed for more instant purchases, which may be fine, but if you end up with 50 different implementations, it starts to look more like the current system, transaction fees will creep back in, etc...  But maybe that's ok.
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