So, here goes ... selling at $5.05 into the weekend, hoping for a dip.
Well, that scores another +1. The gain wasn't that significant, particularly considering the Bitcoinica security incident, after which little additional trading action was the result. As of this writing trading is at $4.95.
A rising price is what would normally be the trigger event to cause the weekend dip follower to buy back those bitcoins that were sold before the weekend.
But this is not a normal weekend however. The Bitcoinica situation will result in liquidation of all open positions there and refund of funds from each account.
Those who were long will get back some USDs and some BTCs and will likely hold them, maybe setting up bids at lower prices. Many of those who were short might have used BTCs as the method to fund the accounts and thus would be getting back some USDs but BTCs as well. Being short already means they are likely to sell their bitcoins as soon as they can move them to an exchange.
About the only buying pressure might come from the apparent need by Bitcoinica to replenish the 18,000 or so bitcoins that were stolen in order to accommodate withdrawals.
This is a dilemma for the weekend dipper. The word "dip" generally is used to refer to a valley where the exit is at the same height as the entrance. The weekend dip only suggests that buying back in the valley, while the dip is still intact, is the goal. It does not suggest that come Monday morning the price will rise back up above the valley floor.
A prudent move would be to buy back at $4.95, book a half a percent gain (after fees) and be happy the weekend dip strategy worked yet one more time.
A more risky option is to hold back, sit on the cash and watch for a selloff if those Bitcoinica shorts make a run for the exit. That option would be even more enticing if there weren't a banking crisis heating up in Europe in response to the increased likelihood of Greece exiting the Euro. A non-reversible, low-cost, immediately spendable digital currency might just do very well in that scenario.
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