I will try to tweak this over the coming months and see if it has any value, but if anyone else better at working this out wants to try - and can factor in more sophisticated statistical analysis (standard deviation etc.) that would be good..
I think calculating the correlation coefficient will give you what you want. Expect it will be quite high. I think a vague positive correlation might be present - but it has to be useful enough to be able to forward map reasonably well. it may involve 'bending time' by having an overlap that differs - making one XX month period longer or shorter against the other, fading sharper moves by averaging to a line of travel if a given % of change is over a certain ratio, or factoring in when certain MAs cross as start and end points for a range (when the halving comes etc.) Basically any mathematically sound and constant fix that looks a better fit by playing with it over a decent long term period of the two comparable cycles that have - ostensibly - some key things in common because of Bitcoin's unique cyclical nature. The drop from top to bottom seemingly correlates in percentage terms, for a start - so it's not a total wild goose chase. It's not really my field, but I'll try and wrap my head around ways to work on it - then test (and back test) to see how I can get anything close enough. So far it 'looks' like we aren't moving as fast away from the bottom as in 2015 - because it was a sharper 'snap' down-and-up in '15 than from the last bottom. I need to look at correlations with opening price, closing price, high and low (or maybe weighted average) to see which (if any) are better fits as time goes on. Then see if I can work on and refine any promising factor so it gives me a better prediction. Daily may not be as close as three day candles etc. So far I can only get data easily for daily historical data in CSV easily, so I shall hunt down other sources (I can get per minute historical data, too - but I am not sure it will help) I only want to see repeating patterns that occasionally will give a prediction with a better than even chance correctly guessing likely direction and a rough price range within a range of + or - XX% in say XX days time +/- X days ? If I can find anything close enough to be useful - or find no real correlation at all, it will be worth knowing. I hope I can learn something - even if it is just my own limits  |
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https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/avmnjs/daily_discussion_thursday_february_28_2019/gr8ful4 58 points · 11 hours ago · edited 11 hours ago Without going much into detail, I'd like to share this long term view with you.  "For 8 years I'm trading the multi-year cycles in this market. More than anything else I focus on market psychology. I use TA, FA and SA only to optimize my entries and targets. In short: each cycle, each top and each floor has its own character. Each cycle builds upon an earlier cycle. Knowing the character and knowing the development path ahead can give incredibly detailed insights into what to expect next. Looking at how we broke down from 6k compared to earlier huge break downs lets me assume that the market participants were prepared for such an event. They even anticipated it. No one even tried catching the knife. They just let it fall. There was only one true capitulation event in BTC history and it was back in 2011. 2013 was a short lived capitulation event triggered by a shitty and lagging exchange which exaggerated every move. 2015 capitulation was forced by Mt. Gox and other exchange hacks. What seemed a "true" capitulation to most was the best buying opportunity for insiders ever. After loading up in late 2011. I accumulated vast amounts in the first half of 2015. Back then BTC was still small. Some thought it was dead, but seeing the infight between all the fractions in the ecosystem made it clear, that they are fighting for something very valuable! Back to our anticipated capitulation event of late 2018. I think there is no one seriously doubting anymore that cryptos are here to stay. That means a true capitulation event is (almost) impossible to occur after it already lost 84%. The only thing that can happen is media manipulation of the masses. But people seeing institutions adopt "blockchain" at every corner aren't stupid and won't give in easily. That said there is tremendous risk for market makers and whales to push price below a certain point, because they always have to factor in re-accumulation + ideally some margin for profits to make the effort worthwhile." I have been pondering on how much 2015-2016 matches 2019. I took daily data open/high/low/close and looked at the ratio of the two lows; 152 to 3122 (actually in Dec '18) which seems an obvious way to work. Then I have tried to overlay on spreadsheets the same prices 'post the bottom', to see if there is any kind of a similar pattern. It didn't correlate on a daily basis enough (using the ratio as a factor) for it to be valuable - as it seems to be currently running lower. I shifted to looking at the same 'time frame', that is; correlating from mid Jan 19, rather than the December 18 low, but neither are close using the same ratio (although it is roughly the same amount 'out' if you zoom out). The only conclusion I can make so far, is relevant to the above post. This is that the sharp final snap down didn't happen, so it follows there was not a sharp snap back up afterwards of the same order as last time. So far the only thing to do to get a closer match has been to to change the 'ratio' I am using in % terms. This looks much closer in terms of matching the range of activity post bottom (on the tiny data set since). If this stays close for a while - it will simply mean we are heading for a curve with not as high a peak from the Dec 18 bottom in % terms. I will try to tweak this over the coming months and see if it has any value, but if anyone else better at working this out wants to try - and can factor in more sophisticated statistical analysis (standard deviation etc.) that would be good... EDIT: for sense. |
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Fuck today I found out I managed myself out of a job. Bummer. Still the team I established and organised will go on to great things. Some tough irony in how much I have fought to keep that together. No problem, I go back into the resource pool, lots of demand for this old looser. lol Hey Globbo, respect. Short term it may seem like a bad call - but it isn't. You think independently and do the right thing. It's a struggle and may seem unrewarded, but you are a better man and will find yourself justly rewarded in the end. Do it right, don't sell out and people who want to work with best will find you. It's a rare quality, one that is precious and hard to find. Walk tall. |
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Sig ad files above the sig? I hope this ain't the future... Sort of bad form, old chap? Nothing personal, just I love it that sig ads are not visible in here. |
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Taking into account that a recent XMR auction ended up going for a greater value than it was that day, I don't think it's worth it. Register NOW for the auction to avoid disappointment! Be prepared and complete your registration today. Follow these simple steps in order to bid;
Click here to download our attached registration form
Complete the form, and return it to ~snip~ along with a copy of your photographic ID and proof of address
Once we have your documents, one of our staff will contact you via the information given to take your £500 deposit
Await an email with your login details (registration cannot be complete without all of the above).
IMPORTANT INFORMATION
Please read the terms & conditions before bidding.
All Lots are subject to a 4.5% buyer’s premium (VAT will be charged on the buyer’s premium in addition).
Full payment is required within 24 hours of the auction.
Details for the wallet for the assets to be transferred to is to be sent no later than 48 hours following the auction.
No bids can be withdrawn once placed for any reason.
Do they accept XMR for bidding?  Nope - but I wouldn't sell my XMR for BTC now anyway I have registered, but they insist on a £500 deposit upfront and don't even show you the lots prior to registration. I am only in to see what's what - just in case it's a bargain. Deposit is refundable in full if you don't win a bid. Worth pinging off a registration form to at least be in the game... |
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Have Fun watching them
BTW, I had no idea your partner was so fucking based. I can respect the idea that you are averse to marriage, but don't lose this one, broheim. You have snagged yourself a very special woman. Treat her well. He can't eat meat ... yeah, a vegetarian gf pretty much makes you a vegetarian.. https://youtu.be/O_eVV7bbZtU?t=14that said, smart outspoken women are cool. But he can always have a secret sausage I think Mic's pretty straight, mate |
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Will This Vulnerability Finally Compel Bitmain to Open Source Its Firmware? A few weeks ago, Bitcoin Core contributor James Hilliard discovered an exploit in Bitmain’s S15 firmware.Hilliard is offering to disclose the vulnerability to Bitmain but under one condition: Bitmain would have to comply to the GNU General Public License (GNU GPL), the popular open source license that the Chinese mining giant is currently breaching, and open source its firmware.https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/will-vulnerability-finally-compel-bitmain-open-source-its-firmware/Can't see 'em agreeing to that, somehow... but it's worth a try. |
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The City / Schalke game was damn good for drama tonight.
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March should see a run at the 200MA, so that entirely possible, I reckon. Maybe a bit higher - but not for long, I am guessing a mid-march peak and then down to about 4K again by April. We are set for an undulating time this year. Five figure stuff no earlier than November-ish. |
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Huobi listed XMR yesterday. Seems not to have had much effect so far, but it's positive news...
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Stamp touched $4,000.
Briefly...
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Going to break 4k, are we?
Didn't we already do that a month or so ago? I fail to see the wow factor in that, just normal volatility. It's because we're showing more evidence of it reversing. Nah, it's too early for that, we have several more months sideways to look forward to. I'll be glad if I'm wrong, but I'm probably not. I would say you are both right and wrong We have bottomed and yes we have several more months of sideways. pish tosh I would say you are both right and wrong. You are right about the sideways. But there's plenty of room yet for a stab down to the dark side. I'd even prefer it that way. I'll bet you a litecoin? I will take it if Hairy won't. I will wager 1 LTC we have already seen the bottom of this bear market. That is, it will not go lower than 3122. Suggest period of wager is until Dec 31 2019, or we go over 7500 on Stamp in USD (or under 3122) - whichever is sooner? Edited for clarity. I will take the bet of 1 LTC that the bottom was $3122 on above terms or whatever else makes sense! Then I should stand aside, as it was offered to you. Unless V8 wants to offer it to me, too... I don't mind, of course. |
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Going to break 4k, are we?
Didn't we already do that a month or so ago? I fail to see the wow factor in that, just normal volatility. It's because we're showing more evidence of it reversing. Nah, it's too early for that, we have several more months sideways to look forward to. I'll be glad if I'm wrong, but I'm probably not. I would say you are both right and wrong We have bottomed and yes we have several more months of sideways. pish tosh I would say you are both right and wrong. You are right about the sideways. But there's plenty of room yet for a stab down to the dark side. I'd even prefer it that way. I'll bet you a litecoin? I will take it if Hairy won't. I will wager 1 LTC we have already seen the bottom of this bear market. That is, it will not go lower than 3122. Suggest period of wager is until Dec 31 2019, or we go over 7500 on Stamp in USD (or under 3122) - whichever is sooner? Edited for clarity. |
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$300 for a raspi and an HDD!?!?! son of a bitch, I'm in the wrong business
yes I've been strongly considering buying one of the new easy-mode LN devices like the Casa Hodl.
suggest research the nodl https://www.nodl.it/more money but more features and more to come That looks sweet. I am not a techie so LN has looked too much set up thus far, but this looks 'turnkey' enough for my tastes - plus it's a full BTC node, so I do my bit for the network. On my wish list, will wait until it's not three weeks delivery (which implies stocks are low / out of stock). |
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(Snipped...)
I am trying to set some interim price targets so we know if we are on track. Not shown here but the 2016 halvening happened on 9 July 2016, immediately after the price formed Bearline 4.
Target 1: Break Bearline 1 in late March 2019 @ $3,500 and spike to $5,000.
Target 2: Break Bearline 2 in mid July 2019 @ $3,750, and spike to $7,000.
Target 3: Break Bearline 3 in start April 2020 @ $5,400, and spike to $10,000.
Target 4: Break Bearline 4 in Dec 2020 @ $12,300 and spike to $19,000.
I am fascinated to see if this plays out. I just looked back to my Jan 10th post to see what I'd said and check if we're inline (I based worked my prediction out upon price points from 2015, too): And if we ARE in 2015 again... (nonsensical extrapolation warning) then:
Around 6,000 in early July, then dip in August to slightly sub 5K
Pushing over 11K in November
Then finishing the year a little lower, but over 9K - ready for the 2020 bull run from that base level.
Of course this is almost certainly wrong, but if this IS the January dip which has been uncannily in mid-Jan (12/12/14 in the past) rather too often, then it is indeed time to buy.
Seems I was a little less optimistic than you, but not so far away. It's certainly worth keeping an eye on it to see if it's panning out close enough to function as a crystal ball - even a blurry one might be an edge. |
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Troll bollocks...
Trolls are a good omen, they usually precede a rise. Needless to say, Monero is No. 1 in trade volume on Polo right now, so I don't think it's a time to be divesting. Monero always has a spring bounce, Gentlemen. And with the coin emission now decreasing so much - supply will not meet demand at these prices. What you are hodling is more precious than ever; let the trolls roll. Bring. It. On. |
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There is quite a scrap going on on Polo.
Fairly large walls popping up 1000 plus either side of the spread - looks like a little whale play with the price.
The momentum was up, so I am not sure the price will stay down. The volume says something is going on, though - it's bigger than it's been in a long time, so I am fascinated to see how this plays out.
EDIT: Grin listing on Polo. Maybe this?
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Well, since this is supposed to be a speculation thread...
Springtime action seems underway. Glad to see Monero's loose historical patterns seem to be continuing. A couple of weeks back it was dipping under 0.012, now it's pushing towards 0.014 - not bad if this keeps up.
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