Lulz from the Bitfinex thread: I have negative balance without any margin trading.
Has anyone seen something like this?
Edit: Yeah, have seen this on MtGox before and dozens of others alt-coins exchanges before they collapsed.  Last time I heard about "negative balances" was in december 2013 when users from CRAPtsy (the unreliable shitcoin exchange) were able to withdraw more coins they had (basically stealing from other user's balances without knowing it),  |
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Most chinese miners have cheap electricity. I'm guessing if they are still mining most of them are still largely in profit, so a few percent difference is not gonna change things. Price had been going sideways for a while and nobody was actively buying so putting up ask walls wouldn't have helped and selling in small chunks would have taken forever (I'm guessing they probably already sell in small chunks on a daily/weekly basis).
There are so many mined coins in circulation and not much fiat on exchanges, considering that unbalance, eventually stuff like that happens. Supply/demand. Then price hits a technical break, breaks a few important trend lines that traders take that as a sell signal so prices slowly continue downwards.
If you want credibility as a bear on here, then suggesting that Chinese miners can't be bothered to actually sell their coins gradually to get the best market price probably isn't a great start. Once you agree that selling like we just witnessed is simply there to paint the chart and push the price through a trend line then we can have an honest conversation. The same thing happens when the price moves upwards. The reality is that the number of coins mined is pretty insignificant compared to total daily trading volume - not even discussing the fact that not all miners sell. These games will go on until it is clear the price cannot be pushed lower through buying support. Watch out above then. You don't know how much in trading volume is coins traded back and forth, that's not what you should look at. Since we are talking about miners dumping, what you should look at is fiat on exchanges that can absorb these dumps, and these amounts are very low and decreasing compared to the insane amount of coins mined, far from being insignificant. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=934650.0https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=934650.msg10537338#msg10537338Simply put -> insane amount of coins mined (supply) + very little (and decreasing) fiat to absorb them (demand) = unbalance, hence downtrend. But again, coins mined is just factor among many, as a general rule saying that "bears don't have coins to sell anymore" simply doesn't make sense because that's not how markets work. |
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welllll let's see ... the latest 5% drop in a half hour ... it could be from some of the 3600 coins mined today , or the day before , or the day before that , which the market is now unable to absorb without borrowed money and fractional reserve (fraudulent) purchasing by the exchanges themselves since not enough new cash is coming in at this point , it could be the 7000 + coins that bter stole a couple days ago have begun being sold , could be a tiny tiny handful sold of the millions of coins possessed by super whales which would instantly crash the price to the single digits if they actually tried to cash them all out at once , could be the thousands of coins from mintpal moolah theft finally being fenced , could be that there were still a few thousand coins from the bitstamp hack theft that got dumped , could be the thousands of coins dumped from the whatever it was called mining ponzi in hongkong , or it could be that karpeles just dumped out another couple thousand coins from the 650,000 he stole from everyone with mtgox , or it could be that a few people who used to be millionaires but made the mistake of getting involved in bitcoin in the last year and a half finally decided that half a million dollars is better than even less , or any other of dozens of fucked up reasons ... take your pick ... this is a market sitting on the head of a pin ... 3 billion valuation with likely less than 3 million on the books of the combined markets ... the game of musical chairs could literally be brought to a sudden and catastrophic end at any point by 1 large enough holder ...
It's just price manipulation. Works both up and down. Traders going to trade. Do you think a miner (seeking best price for his coins and electricity costs) just dumps 5000 coins onto the open market? Ha. Most chinese miners have cheap electricity. I'm guessing if they are still mining most of them are still largely in profit, so a few percent difference is not gonna change things. Price had been going sideways for a while and nobody was actively buying so putting up ask walls wouldn't have helped and selling in small chunks would have taken forever (I'm guessing they probably already sell in small chunks on a daily/weekly basis). There are so many mined coins in circulation and not much fiat on exchanges, considering that unbalance, eventually stuff like that happens. Supply/demand. Then price hits a technical break, breaks a few important trend lines that traders take that as a sell signal so prices slowly continue downwards. |
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I'm panic selling as we speak!
I know right?! |
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Interest rate on swaps just doubled. Do you think Bulls will run out of fiat to borrow before bears run out of coins to borrow?
China matters a lot more than bitfinex so there's that. |
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Well here is the start, the dump volume should multiply around 5 times the upcoming days.
I can confirm, it´s getting way worse from here! OMG! CONfirmed?!? Yes, confirmed. |
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Yep, it's called "denial". Another funny thing is the "bears have run out of coins to dump" fantasy. First it doesn't make sense because that's not how markets work. But most importantly: I wonder why bears would be short-selling if they still had any coins to dump. I'm thinking they don't.
The never ending fable of "bears running out of coins". Picture book economics.  "Bears don't have coins to dump anymore". Bitcoiners always tell the funniest stories. Maybe they should mention the fact that since the $160 bottom 120k coins have been mined. But hey! Bears have run out of coins! They never say that bulls have run out of fiat tho  |
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First wave of perma-bulls denial coming.
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So funny, get a burst of ignored user posts for a no volume tiny drop. Geez, they that desperate to promote gloom and doom?
Quoted for future hilarity. This is the beginning of the next downtrend (which never stopped, by the way). Feel free to think I'm just trolling you. |
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Miners have plenty of coins to dump. Like insane quantities, do the math  Overly optimistic bulls and cultists have run out of fiat and already bought. The result? Everybody else panics. As they should. That's how it works. |
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Whoa big drop all of the sudden! What's going on?
Chinese megaminers full of coins to dump have run out of patience? Natural panic because nobody is buying anymore? |
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I wonder why bears would be short-selling if they still had any coins to dump. I'm thinking they don't.
The never ending fable of "bears running out of coins". Picture book economics. "Bears don't have coins to dump anymore". Bitcoiners always tell the funniest stories. Maybe they should mention the fact that since the $160 bottom 120k coins have been mined. But hey! Bears have run out of coins! They never say that bulls have run out of fiat tho |
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When you cultists were saying that bitcoin could not go below $300 again few months ago, anatolio (trader with the best returns on PAMM, where you can see his trades and returns in all transparency) posted this: https://www.tradingview.com/v/JterRDxF/Click on play to see what happened. Not only he nailed the move, but following that chart he expects the crash to continue soon to reach double digits in a few months. I agree with that analysis. When it finally reaches double digits, it will be interesting to see what kind of excuses you will come up with to justify your amazing investment. Good luck, cultists. |
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UPDATE:
Huobi: Bid sum almost halved since I last posted in this thread, from around 17-20M CNY to around 10M CNY. Generally, still very low levels compared to anything seen months ago as you can see by the pic. Bid/ask ratio is around the lowest seen in ages. BTCChina: Generally still low levels, but to be fair it slightly increased. Not by much though. From 6-7M CNY to 8M CNY. Coinbase: Bid sum is low in absolute terms, is stays around $1M-$1.5M range, increased a little and fluctuating but still in this low range. Bitfinex: Nothing interesting as always, see my first post for more info on why. BTC-E: Bid sum stayed around the same levels, it fluctuated a little but overall we don’t see any big increase or decrease. Since the bottom it slightly increased but it still way below levels seen since January 2015. Bitstamp: Still very low bid sum, after the hack fuckery it stabilized at the lowest levels seen all throughout September-December 2014. As a general trend, bid/ask ratio is stabilizing around the lowest levels ever compared to anything seen in 2014 in all exchanges. Again, there is no indication that new money is flowing in exchanges. Demand seems to not pick up for now.    All other exchanges at various time frames: http://coinsight.org/
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You can clearly see the difference between no fees VS fees, lol  |
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This willy bot analysis isn't analysis at all. It neatly ignores the fact that gox was 10% of global volume in the 2013 bull run. And anyway who cares a hoot about gox - we are almost a year on from its demise.
Yeah and all the while when we went down Chinese exchanges suddenly have "fake volume", now what is it? Can't be both fake and real. It wasn't always no fee trading now was it.. During the 2013 run up to $1200 BTCChina (chinese exchange with the most volume back then) had no fees. Then they suddenly introduced fees when the PBOC was talking about their "bans", and everybody switched to Huobi and Okcoin. |
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fun fact: it has been roughly 1 month and a few days since the $160 bottom. That means that in the meantime, more than 120k coins were mined, which is more in USD value of all the buy orders (bid sum) on all major exchanges combined (bitstamp, bitfinex, okcoin, huobi, btcchina, btc-e), which didn't increase (in some exchanges it only decreased) and is still sitting at very low levels (compared to few months ago and 1 year ago). http://coinsight.org/Don't worry tho, chinese megamines HODL all the coins they mine. Bullish! |
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