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Seems like a rocky road but so far the trend has generally been up. Started the day at ~120-ish, and now its $124-ish. It'll be nice if we can break the $137 level though. That's key.
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guilds could charge admission fees
I know from my personal experience with WOW that this would cause a disaster. You'd get big guilds that would charge to get into their core raiding team, and take non-core players into raids and dump them after locking them to the instance when a "core" player that paid comes in. There are many servers that you already have to essentially pay gold to guild owners to raid in, which is not fun. Having to pay real money would just be dumb. |
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Interestingly, at the end of the discussion Assange makes an early reference the concept of bitcoin-based 'subcurrencies'.
Some believe this will become the predominant model for future crypto-currency innovation. Much as Google, Ebay and Paypal quickly filled their respective niches in a new landscape, bitcoin is rapidly becoming entrenched as a defacto standard. The eventual fate of the current 'alt coins' is less than certain. Instead, future subcurrencies may appear to fill specific needs, fully or partially backed by bitcoins, much as the US dollar was once backed by gold.
That... sounds ridiculously awesome. |
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It doesn't go from "person to blockchain" either because it never "leaves" the blockchain in the first place.
Different people own bitcoins and it is easy to transfer from one user to another. Thus, "person to person." Maybe from a technical perspective not quite right, but from a practical standpoint, it is.
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What sums, time-frames and odds are we talking about here? Are you doing different odds by strike price or rather 1:1 on current price?
I'm somewhat mid-term bearish, on the order of months. Any offers on that time-frame?
The first one was sort of me trolling. I could do a 1 month 1:1 strike of $120. |
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price is 124.09
1$=0.008058
let's say 0.0081
where should i pay?
1F6yaGAsfe6LvmGf6sdKGY8JJEXPsEMbcR |
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So basically I will bet 1$ that the Mtgox price will be lower than now after exactly 1 hour. I think that https://data.mtgox.com/api/2/BTCUSD/money/ticker is a good source. So at the moment 1$=0.0082651 BTC And the opening price is 120.99 BTCUSD Okay, accepted. Your source seems fine. Ending time is 04:49:11 PM server time (Bitcointalk server time) which is 1 hour from when you posted. |
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The volume is so low - 61k - compared to around 310k yesterday
Don't worry about it, it's the weekend. It always slows down during the weekend. Compare that to 3 months ago... It's high  Compare anything Bitcoin to 3 months ago and it looks high. |
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I would like to have a bet like this, but in $. Meaning that I like the Bitcoin infrastructure for sending and receiving value, but right now I can not trust the stability of BTC (what stability?).
For example a 10$ bet that after x hours the price will be lower.
Using MtGox price as enter price, exit price and of course outcome price.
And as far as I know BTC is quoted much detailed than 'cents'.
Considering that I trust you for now, we have to settle the time correlations.
Very well, I will still complete the transactions in bitcoins however as I have no other way of paying you. I will scale your winnings or losings according to current price of bitcoin. Which bet type do you want? |
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i fucking love it when already fiat rich people lose money!
totally made a long hard work day better. thank you, yokosan, for posting this.
if you wanted to go to college to pursue a career that involved seperating rich people from their money, what lines of work would you consider? thought about trying to become a lawyer but i suck at the socratic learning method.
Not to be a douche, but pretty much some computer science related or finance related field. At the present day people in these fields hold a lot of power. While being a laywer might make you cause some small disruptions in the short term but IMO the other fields have the power to simply be more disruptive. |
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This does not mean we are NOT in a bear market: we are clearly in a bear market. I think the mindset changed for a lot of people: before the crash it was "let's hold to see where it gets". Now its more something like "let's see how soon it arrives to $130 so I can sell". I say $130 but it can be $150 or $160, that point is different for everyone, but I think its clear the mindset changed a lot.
Can you provide factual evidence for the bolded part? Or is this more of a gut feeling? To me it doesn't seem like we can say that we are in a bear market yet, this could easily be a bear trap. Or we could have sideways consolidation for a while. Yes, if the downward trend solidifies over the next few weeks, I think that would paint more a clear picture. EDIT: I think this graph gives good perspective.  Fast forward a few months, "bubble 2.0" may just look like a large correction to the consistent underlying bullish trend for the past year. If this graph is supposed to look bearish, then you did a pretty bad job. If this graph is supposed to induce a great WTF feeling, then you did a pretty good job. |
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Those bets could be cheated at, just a warning for bigger bets.
If you have enough BC and bet a lot if BCs on BCs going down, you can throw a pig pile on the market to let them go down.
(or if you have enough cash, buy BCs to let them go up)
You'd have to have an ass load of money to do so, and even if you did, you'd probably lose more than you'd win anyways. |
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and so the informal Bitcoin derivatives trade was born.
How about, we 'bears' just sit and watch what happens.
If we are correct, and over time, Bitcoin finds a base at a much lower price range, then at that point, providing we think the fundamentals for future growth are still in good shape (I am talking steady and/or thriving existing or newly established Bitcoin market places such as Silk Road), then we enter at that price point, whatever it may be.
The difference is, that you will be making money while you wait, and that if you choose you will never have to long bitcoin at all. |
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I'm a bear, and the idea seems fun but... how am I supposed to bet? I don't have any BTC, I sold them all!  Step 1: Set up bet with me. Step 2: Buy bitcoins (which you've hedged out of anyway because of your bet with me, don't worry, your not 'really' buying coins). Step 3: Lose those bitcoins in your bet. Do you have any money in any exchange ever? I think your step 3 is wrong But seriously, I don't see how it is an interesting deal. We make a bet of 10 BTC at 100$ each for example. If I win, I double my money (20 BTC)....but I win only if the price goes down. If the price goes down 50%, I'm not making any money on the original deal. Getting 20 BTC at 50$.....why I'm betting in the first case? But in your case, if you win, it means that the price went up. So, you're winning 20 BTC of more value than the original BTC of the deal. I don't see how your bet offer can be profitable for any bear. The margin where he can win and profit is small (between minus 1% and 50% of the original price) while you have an infinite margin where you can win and profit. The advantage always goes to the bull because the bull can express his position without the help of the bear but the bear can't do so without the help of the bull. Still, I agree its unfair that the bear can actually lose money if the price goes down too much. Thus, for "down" bets (for one-touch I will send the BTC when the price hits the one-touch so they aren't exposed to additional downside risk) I'll 'hedge' you out of BTC: If you win, and the price goes down I'll cover the loss. Bottom line: No matter what, if you win the bet, you will win money. I'm not trying to pull any dick shit (other than take advantage of the bad predictions of bears)! The other direction is perfectly fair, as if I win, I have the right to do what I want with your money, and what I want to do is buy bitcoins. |
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EDIT: Ignore, issue resolved.
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Also for further reference, I've created a custom address for this, 1F6yaGAsfe6LvmGf6sdKGY8JJEXPsEMbcR, which I'll be using to receive all funds.
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EDIT: Ignore, issue resolved.
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I'm a bear, and the idea seems fun but... how am I supposed to bet? I don't have any BTC, I sold them all! Step 1: Set up bet with me. Step 2: Buy bitcoins (which you've hedged out of anyway because of your bet with me, don't worry, your not 'really' buying coins). Step 3: Lose those bitcoins in your bet. Do you have any money in any exchange ever? |
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I've talked about this in several threads before but I want to make a thread dedicated for it.
Looking for Bears that want to bet against bitcoin.
I am confident in Bitcoin in the days to come so I am looking to express this view without daytrading. Thus I will provide people with the option to short bitcoin with 'binary options' (i.e, what financial institutions use as a fancy way of saying 'bets') so you bears can profit from your 'superior knowledge.'
I offer 2 simple ways of making your bet:
Down: You bet Bitcoin will go down. If the Gox price is lower (even by 1 cent!) than when you make the bet after a designated period of time, you will double your money. If not, you will lose your money.
One-touch: You bet Bitcoin will touch a specific value (lower than the current) within the next designated time period. If it does, you will double your money. If not, you will lose your money. This is useful because even if we go into what you bears call "bull traps" you still make money.
For one-touch, I feel a daily trade is more easily tracked because the "low" is clearly available on gox. Today, the market in one day had a ~25% range of values (from $109 to $136). In order for it to be considered a possible "bear" market, more than half of this variance must be over half of this range. So, I will make the target value for one-touch 13% lower than the current price with a time period of 24 hours as a starting offer.
Obviously I am willing to negotiate and take offers. As for trust, I can assure you I am trustworthy and require users that I personally do not trust (don't take it personally, I probably just haven't got to know you yet) to give me your Bitcoins before starting the bet. In many cases I assume we can go on the honor system and pay each other after the bet is complete. I encourage you to start with a small bet to get to know you can trust me.
This offer may be removed or changed whenever I personally feel. Obviously I will still honor outstanding bets. No need to send me a PM, just post in this thread so the forum can back us up in case of a conflict which increases trust. All prices both opening and closing are based on gox price.
PROFIT CALCULATIONS
-'DOWN' bets:
current price/strike price : 1
Example:
If you bet 1BTC that the price would close lower than 100 when the price is 125, and it did, you would get 1BTC*(125/100) = 1.25BTC as your profit.
-Daily 'STRIKE' bests:
You will double your money if the price reaches 13% lower than the current price within a time period of 24 hours.
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