I think Hairy means a little more of a move than that.   It's likely to mean Monday sees a plunge to attack the 200MA line again, and then it either breaks or (I would hope) bounces back violently.

I do want to see something decisive. I hope it will prove my own thoughts, but this is Bitcoin....

That article got me thinking, too - a great new way of looking at game-changing innovation. It shifted my perspective from thinking of a use case, to looking at a use case that breaks existing rules. It made a lot of sense and the precedents to prove it are pretty obvious and convincing.

Thanks for the reply Hairy, I don't disagree with you.   Other than 'the beginning of the end' I wasn't being so optimistic, I don't think anything like a real bull run can happen this year.  But even 2015, which memories think dull, saw a near trebling of the price from the Jan low by EOY.

The 200MA wasn't broken, but it was perfectly touched a few weeks back.  One more try? Possibly - but even then I reckon it will probably hold, if so... the end of the beginning is confirmed.

Am dithering too.  I have two Ledger S and a Trezor from many months back that are still in their packaging.  

I am just in paper wallets that are secure and laminated in fire proof and highly secure locations and now I am wondering how much of my time I want to spend working through a new tech learning-curve that I need to master when it is important enough I really have to take it very seriously.

The main reason I got them was that forks were a 'thing' - and the paper wallets were tiresome hassle for a while. Now it seems that era is over and they are just fine sitting there and being safe.

Hey Hairy, I always follow your TA with interest and play at my own, too. I too think the 2014 /2015 overlay is pretty close. 

So; while I agree Bitcoin did have to wait until Nov 2016 to really start the last bull run, it was in January 2015 that saw the last push down of the bears to new lows.  So, while things are not in the bull zone yet, do you not think it 'possible' (as my hopium-addled brain thinks) that this is finally the beginning of the end?

Personally, I am thinking a dull sideways, but slowly upward grind (sure, with fits and starts) from here to the end of this year. Not a bull run yet - but past the definitive end of the bear market. 

I have stuck my neck out with predictive and likely foolhardy posts in the past 24 hours, but I don't think the FUD is working any more, I think too many people think that even here is cheap - and I think too many people would rather buy at 3XXX and risk it dipping than be forced to buy at 4K or 5K if Bitcoin has a French Weekend when they aren't watching.

If there is to be a new ATH, according to pattern - with the order of increase we saw between the last two, then (to extrapolate) what is the difference buying at 3K or 2K if it might hit 50K inside 2 years?

Right, I've just set my hydro-electric powered, gas-cooled, massive AI super computer operation into my regular, proprietary 'market trends analysis mode', analysing crucial data across trade levels and prices in over 200 world currencies, major precious metals, internationally traded commodity prices, macro stuff like central bank interest rates and well over 2000 cryptocurrency market prices on countless exchanges - all in order to pump out the sophisticated data answers I need to predict the Bitcoin price.

However, I need a little help.  It's just stalled and on screen all it says is:



Data Error: Please input data for following:

When is Jimbo back?

A few months ago, I'd have disagreed, I had buys set down as far as $1500, just in case. Now I think it's soon going to be too late to go to the 2K level, if it was coming it should have happened by now. 

There is a fair chance that this dip may turn out to be this year's low.  Meaning if we get beyond mid-January without going lower, it's the signal the bear market is done.  I wasn't actually sure that just above 3K was the real low, I have been waiting for January to see what happened (given its history).

It is even possible by this time next week, especially if we do not break below 3122, we will have already (if imperceptibly at this time) seen the end of the bear's grip on the market and the new bull will be here to start the long march up to the new ATH.  I think quite possibly, it's time.

Yes, but in 2105 /2016/2017 - it was the lowest price that year.

If you bought then in 2018, you would have lost most of it by now

Prediction time?  OK - I will have a pop at it:

This dip seems pretty much right on time; mid January.  It's been the lowest price point of the past four years, except for last year, which was coming down from the ATH, just like 2014 was.

Therefore, if history repeats itself the current few days (if not now, then no more than over the next three or four days) will be the lowest Bitcoin price of this year. We are if anything a day or two ahead of schedule.

DYOR - but now is quite possibly the last chance to buy this low, this year.  

And if we ARE in 2015 again... (nonsensical extrapolation warning) then:

Around 6,000 in early July, then dip in August to slightly sub 5K

Pushing over 11K in November

Then finishing the year a little lower, but over 9K - ready for the 2020 bull run from that base level.

Of course this is almost certainly wrong, but if this IS the January dip which has been uncannily in mid-Jan (12/12/14 in the past) rather too often, then it is indeed time to buy.

As of now I am scaling back in with everything the tax man isn't lifting from me, which isn't as bad as I feared, thankfully.

I still love that album.  Loose Fit is the killer track for me.  Never saw the Mondays, but bizarrely I met Bez and Sean Ryder on the first night of the Black Grape tour at a gig in Portsmouth, it was er... interesting. Glad the HMs best album made it over the pond and found some good ears, Bob. Respect for the nostalgic moment!

I'd certainly prefer it if it was tokens, POS coins etc. under threat.  But hopefully it will end up with stronger POW ('that which does not kill me...' so to speak) and NOT certain token systems basking smugly in the sunshine as V8 noted.

I think a cull is needed to pull resources towards the best projects, but that a gradual extermination of minor coins and a slower death for middling ones would be better than a general sudden carnage.

Too many pissy, crap coins is obviously an issue, but a feeding frenzy of bad, large rogue actors getting richer and bigger in a slaughter-fest might not be pretty.  

Or maybe I just need my medicine.  Nurse...?

Yep, almost certainly.  The 'short and attack' might work profitably on rumour alone.

In all honesty, I hope I am over-reacting.  NiceHash can't rent you enough for 51% on most coins (and certainly not BTC) and an hour wouldn't work, i would need to be sutained.  So it could just be the smaller shitcoins unable to respond (and lacking nodes) that are vulnerable...  Bigger coins can presumably rent or mobilse fan-hash to defend themselves, or adapt POW algos, too.

But big coins need to not fail - you can imagine the media scrum and the wailing and gnashing of teeth on the wires of the scammed.

Well NiceHash attacks could well (should, even?) increase. It might not be too pretty, either - especially as it's POW coins that will take the brunt of it.  

OK, I was wondering how shitcoins might be pruned as, in a Darwinian way, it seems sort of inevitable when there are obviously way too many with no real use case, or any likely long-term value.  But the minimal money to wreck some fairly big name coins, rattles me a tad. It will not exactly be good news if it is widely perceived that POW itself is not safe.

I know BTC is a way bigger deal to attack and almost impossible, but...

EDIT: typos

You have averaged about ten posts a year, it's an honour to witness a post! 

Just curious... Have you still got coins from 2011?

May our Bitcoin rise
Until it rises so high
It ends this winter

And the last thing anyone who was a 'think tanker' - who knew the true intent of those in power - would do, is say so publicly on twatter.

The pond must be cleaned
If it becomes filled with sludge
To keep it healthy

^ Oh no....