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741  Other / Off-topic / Re: Scientific proof that God exists? on: February 11, 2015, 08:36:33 PM

So you protest against this on the basis that 'god' cannot be held to the same degree of critical analysis as, well, EVERYTHING we know about our reality because, as you say, this 'god' character is by definition 'beyond the rules of Nature'. Trouble is, this definition is solely by way of attributes WE HUMANS have given the concept of a monotheistic 'god'.


I thought I would clarify this a bit further, even though I responded to it already in my previous post.

What I'm saying is that I protest against claims for/against the existence of God based upon empirical evidence because the topic needs to be held to a higher degree of critical analysis than what empirical methods are able to provide.

Think of it this way:  Empiricism is simply a theory about knowledge acquisition.  But, it's only one of many.  There are other methods of acquiring knowledge that totally and completely trump science when it comes to discussing basically *anything* that has a supra-physical component(s).

The TL;DR version is that empiricism is awesome for exploring and explaining isolated phenomena in terms of other isolated phenomena.  Aside from that, it's essentially useless.
742  Other / Off-topic / Re: Scientific proof that God exists? on: February 11, 2015, 05:59:18 PM
Yet people try to prove over and over again that this case can be solved with science and reason. That is why we have always a huge discussion about nothing...

There is no 'case', there is only wild imagination summed up so perfectly by the end of your last sentence.

We might as well have them arguing the case for the existence of the train to Hogwarts.

Deferring to scientific evidence for God or a lack thereof in support of an argument is a waste of time because there is no amount of evidence that could prove or disprove the existence of a monotheistic god in the first place.  Monotheistic gods are, by definition, beyond the scope of empiricism.  

Whenever I watch religious debates -- and because of YouTube, I've seen a lot -- the same scenario tends to unfold over and over again.  The religious tend to use some form of retarded logic to try to turn religious texts into some scientific account, and atheists rightfully jump all over them for it.  But then, instead of simply shutting up, the atheists can't help but toss in their own form of retarded logic and make the claim that there is no good reason to believe in God because of a lack of scientific evidence.  Then the religious, who already jumped on board the retard wagon, try to rebut the atheists' counterpoint as though it's actually a tenable position.  It's not.

So, we have one group of people making BS claims, and another group making BS counterclaims about which the first group then makes its own BS counterclaims.  

If you're going to debate God's existence, great.  Just leave empiricism out of it.

The only reason no amount of evidence could ever prove or disprove the existence of God is, people who are strong willed can always say that there still isn't enough evidence. That's the only reason.

This means that NOTHING that has been proven ever really has been proven to everybody. In court trials, where the evidence is overwhelming, the jury can still say, the evidence doesn't prove it.

The idea that the evidence of the machine-like nature of the universe doesn't have anything to do with proving God, is simply a belief held by people who have the agenda of not wanting God to be proven. God could walk right up to those people, slap them in the face, or kiss them on the cheek, and then do all kinds of miracles right in front of them, some of which would incite pain, others of which would incite pleasure, and they still wouldn't believe.

Modern science as it exists in its popular fashion, at its core, has no FACT for how this marvelous thing that we call the universe could have ever come into existence. All of the modern scientific explanations for this are science fiction. The evidence of this is that certain relatively obscure scientists have found that red-shift in stars doesn't have anything to do with the distance that stars are away from us, or the speed at which they are traveling away. Red-shift stars have been observed in multiple cases to exist right along side of other stars that are relatively close. This means that the Big Bang Theory is no longer even a theory. It exists as a theory only in the minds of believers in the Big Bang God. To see the evidence for this, Google "electric sun" or "electric cosmos" or "electric universe," and study the results.

There is only one other idea that makes sense for the existence of the universe (as though Big Bang ever really made sense). That idea is God. Since we know relatively nothing regarding the marvels in the universe and nature (we are still just scratching the surface), and since the marvels have machine-like quality to them, and since we know from personal experience that the person who has greater smarts and ingenuity usually is able to develop the greater more-complex machinery, so it goes that the Maker of the universe machinery fits the definition of God.

Smiley

Responding to each paragraph in order:

1)  Wrong.  It has nothing to do with a person's will.  It's simply an impossibility to make any definitive claims about a monotheistic god based upon evidence because it runs directly into the fallacy of induction.

2)  In criminal court, jury's cast a verdict based upon the interpretation of evidence "beyond a reasonable doubt," and not "beyond all doubt."  In civil cases, judgments are simply based upon preponderance of the evidence.  To conclude about God based upon evidence requires infinite data to reach a conclusion beyond all doubt.  This is impossible.

3)  Nothing you state here is a valid consideration.  Witnessing a 'miracle' doesn't suggest God exists whatsoever.  Neither does talking with a burning bush.  For example, you wouldn't be able to decipher whether it was a monotheistic or a polytheistic god that performed the 'miracle.'

4)  If you don't know what the scientific method is, you probably shouldn't pretend that you do.  This entre paragraph is garbage (sorry).

5)  None of the considerations you state here imply the existence of god.  The "machine-like Universe" is a dead argument and does not in any way imply God's existence.

Your faith in the science god, and also the god of your own infallible reasoning is remarkable. Hold onto that kind of faith style, because if you ever become convinced that God exists, you will be a tremendously strong person for Him.

Smiley

I *do* believe God exists.
743  Other / Off-topic / Re: Scientific proof that God exists? on: February 11, 2015, 05:57:48 PM
But then, instead of simply shutting up, the atheists can't help but toss in their own form of retarded logic and make the claim that there is no good reason to believe in God because of a lack of scientific evidence.

So you protest against this on the basis that 'god' cannot be held to the same degree of critical analysis as, well, EVERYTHING we know about our reality because, as you say, this 'god' character is by definition 'beyond the rules of Nature'. Trouble is, this definition is solely by way of attributes WE HUMANS have given the concept of a monotheistic 'god'.

To employ the special pleading fallacy, which you are, is only honest if you are also acknowledging that the reason you are employing special pleading is because our imagination has chosen to attribute 'his' characteristics as such in order to explain away the fact we are proposing the existence of an 'intelligent designer' when no empiric measurement can ever be applied because we say 'he' is beyond our reality.

The process of defining the characteristics or, for that matter, mere existence of something outside our reality, other than simply admitting you're 'making shit up' with your imagination, is farcical in the extreme.

To protest against the Atheist who, rightly, says there is no reason to believe in the existence of a proposed 'god' is to, by definition, accept the potential existence of ABSOLUTELY ANYTHING ANYBODY EVER DREAMS UP because, after all, the 'retarded logic' of dismissing claims towards the existence of that for which exists attributes beyond our reality, according to you, is wrong, therefore: [insert any fanciful supernatural notion here and apply some special pleading fallacy liberally as though it is equally as valid as dismissal of same for lack of evidence]

If we're going down that road, I'm with Konstantinos and his 'hypothesis' concerning the giant black dildo of smiteyness. Because, hey, you can't disprove me!!!!111!!!!1!!!!!! :superrolleyes:

@BADecker You're an idiot abusing what little you know of actual science in order to twist it to your own reality. Stop citing shit as though you even understand it in the first place. Your tiresome 'entropy' screeching keeps falling down over this inconvenient fact I have already cited: "Of utmost importance, entropy is an energetic phenomenon, and only tangentially has to do with the distribution of matter in a system."

As I said, I just wish I could unsubscribe to this shit thread. Sure, I could simply refuse to ever post it in again but the trouble is, sometimes when it appears for the umpteenth time in my list, I remember that I once was so brainwashed that I couldn't see the reality of the situation and it was the rational and reasonable words of others which allowed me to break my conditioning and free my mind from this juvenile and intellectually dishonest system of unquestioning 'faith'. So every now and then I suck it up and try again with you, only for you to show yourself to be beyond help it would seem.

Responding to paragraphs in order:

1)  Here you correctly point out the problem with ascribing a definition to God before confirming His existence.  This runs straight into the fallacy of induction. Let me be clear that this is *not* sound logic.  I'm well aware of that.  

However, if logic necessesitates the existence of some entity that, for all practical considerations, remind us of intuitive notions of God (e.g. Omnipotent; a Creator), then it would be practical to just call it 'God.'  But whatever you call it just comes down to personal preference.

And yes, I'm suggesting that a monotheistic god can not, nor ever could be, explored via science.  Science can't even explore or falsify its own assumptions, so how could you possibly expect it to capably explore something even more general?

2)  Think of it this way:  I start with a preconception of what god is, i.e. an intelligent designer.  Then, I forget all about that preconception and simply go about my business trying to use logic to uncover the fundamental truths of reality.  One such truth happens to be that reality is a mental construct.  Knowing this, I can retrieve my original presupposition and compare it to my findings.  Since it is practical to equate 'reality as a mental construct' with 'intelligent design,' I can practically conclude God exists.

3)  See above.  The only thing I would add here is that talking about something outside of reality is pointless.  If there were something real enough outside of reality so as to be able to affect it, it would be inside reality.

4) Again, the atheists' 'retarded logic' I'm referring to is thinking that empirical methods of exploration have any business exploring something that is self-apparently beyond its scope.  Inductive limitations render this impossible.  Anyone who claims otherwise has a poor understanding of the limitations of empiricism.

5)  I think it would be worth your time to consider why common atheist rebuttals such as the Flying Spaghetti Monster or Space Teapot are invalid right from the get go.

6)  I'll skip your response to BadDecker, but with regards to your last paragraph I think it's pretty clear that you have the opportunity to learn something by sticking around.
744  Other / Off-topic / Re: Scientific proof that God exists? on: February 11, 2015, 05:30:16 PM
Yet people try to prove over and over again that this case can be solved with science and reason. That is why we have always a huge discussion about nothing...

There is no 'case', there is only wild imagination summed up so perfectly by the end of your last sentence.

We might as well have them arguing the case for the existence of the train to Hogwarts.

Deferring to scientific evidence for God or a lack thereof in support of an argument is a waste of time because there is no amount of evidence that could prove or disprove the existence of a monotheistic god in the first place.  Monotheistic gods are, by definition, beyond the scope of empiricism.  

Whenever I watch religious debates -- and because of YouTube, I've seen a lot -- the same scenario tends to unfold over and over again.  The religious tend to use some form of retarded logic to try to turn religious texts into some scientific account, and atheists rightfully jump all over them for it.  But then, instead of simply shutting up, the atheists can't help but toss in their own form of retarded logic and make the claim that there is no good reason to believe in God because of a lack of scientific evidence.  Then the religious, who already jumped on board the retard wagon, try to rebut the atheists' counterpoint as though it's actually a tenable position.  It's not.

So, we have one group of people making BS claims, and another group making BS counterclaims about which the first group then makes its own BS counterclaims.  

If you're going to debate God's existence, great.  Just leave empiricism out of it.

The only reason no amount of evidence could ever prove or disprove the existence of God is, people who are strong willed can always say that there still isn't enough evidence. That's the only reason.

This means that NOTHING that has been proven ever really has been proven to everybody. In court trials, where the evidence is overwhelming, the jury can still say, the evidence doesn't prove it.

The idea that the evidence of the machine-like nature of the universe doesn't have anything to do with proving God, is simply a belief held by people who have the agenda of not wanting God to be proven. God could walk right up to those people, slap them in the face, or kiss them on the cheek, and then do all kinds of miracles right in front of them, some of which would incite pain, others of which would incite pleasure, and they still wouldn't believe.

Modern science as it exists in its popular fashion, at its core, has no FACT for how this marvelous thing that we call the universe could have ever come into existence. All of the modern scientific explanations for this are science fiction. The evidence of this is that certain relatively obscure scientists have found that red-shift in stars doesn't have anything to do with the distance that stars are away from us, or the speed at which they are traveling away. Red-shift stars have been observed in multiple cases to exist right along side of other stars that are relatively close. This means that the Big Bang Theory is no longer even a theory. It exists as a theory only in the minds of believers in the Big Bang God. To see the evidence for this, Google "electric sun" or "electric cosmos" or "electric universe," and study the results.

There is only one other idea that makes sense for the existence of the universe (as though Big Bang ever really made sense). That idea is God. Since we know relatively nothing regarding the marvels in the universe and nature (we are still just scratching the surface), and since the marvels have machine-like quality to them, and since we know from personal experience that the person who has greater smarts and ingenuity usually is able to develop the greater more-complex machinery, so it goes that the Maker of the universe machinery fits the definition of God.

Smiley

Responding to each paragraph in order:

1)  Wrong.  It has nothing to do with a person's will.  It's simply an impossibility to make any definitive claims about a monotheistic god based upon evidence because it runs directly into the fallacy of induction.

2)  In criminal court, juries cast a verdict based upon the interpretation of evidence "beyond a reasonable doubt," and not "beyond all doubt."  In civil cases, judgments are simply based upon preponderance of the evidence.  To conclude about God based upon evidence requires infinite data to reach a conclusion beyond all doubt.  This is impossible.

3)  Nothing you state here is a valid consideration.  Witnessing a 'miracle' doesn't suggest God exists whatsoever.  Neither does talking with a burning bush.  For example, you wouldn't be able to decipher whether it was a monotheistic or a polytheistic god that performed the 'miracle.'

4)  If you don't know what the scientific method is, you probably shouldn't pretend that you do.  This entre paragraph is garbage (sorry).

5)  None of the considerations you state here imply the existence of god.  The "machine-like Universe" is a dead argument and does not in any way imply God's existence.
745  Other / Off-topic / Re: Scientific proof that God exists? on: February 11, 2015, 04:53:56 PM
After all these years and all things we have learned about the way things work how can any person with a brain in their head believe there is a magical man in the sky why sees and knows everything you do.  The story they told you about santa clause was a lie and the story they told you about god is also a lie.  They just never told you it was a lie like they did about santa.  And they are laughing all the way to the bank.

What would you say about intelligent design if it were demonstrated that reality is a mental construct?
746  Other / Off-topic / Re: Scientific proof that God exists? on: February 11, 2015, 02:56:36 PM
Yet people try to prove over and over again that this case can be solved with science and reason. That is why we have always a huge discussion about nothing...

There is no 'case', there is only wild imagination summed up so perfectly by the end of your last sentence.

We might as well have them arguing the case for the existence of the train to Hogwarts.

Deferring to scientific evidence for God or a lack thereof in support of an argument is a waste of time because there is no amount of evidence that could prove or disprove the existence of a monotheistic god in the first place.  Monotheistic gods are, by definition, beyond the scope of empiricism. 

Whenever I watch religious debates -- and because of YouTube, I've seen a lot -- the same scenario tends to unfold over and over again.  The religious tend to use some form of retarded logic to try to turn religious texts into some scientific account, and atheists rightfully jump all over them for it.  But then, instead of simply shutting up, the atheists can't help but toss in their own form of retarded logic and make the claim that there is no good reason to believe in God because of a lack of scientific evidence.  Then the religious, who already jumped on board the retard wagon, try to rebut the atheists' counterpoint as though it's actually a tenable position.  It's not.

So, we have one group of people making BS claims, and another group making BS counterclaims about which the first group then makes its own BS counterclaims. 

If you're going to debate God's existence, great.  Just leave empiricism out of it.
747  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin went out of exponential trend into linear downtrend [TA inside] on: February 02, 2015, 08:00:50 PM
Just because there's a line there doesn't mean it can't go around it. I'm pretty sure the bubble to $1000 broke some trend lines. Once Wall Street got involved, a lot of the past trend lines for Bitcoin don't mean shit. It's a new ball game.

wallstreet is pipedreams. You notice correctly: it was a bubble
Question: when in history did speculative bubbles repeat a second time on the same thing after collapsing? Never.



Actually it's happened for a 2nd and 3rd time already with BTC.  Did you know that this is not the largest crash in BTC's history?  Actually, it's not even close (by a factor of ~4).
748  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: Did you get ROI for your mining equipment? on: February 02, 2015, 04:01:07 PM
It is now a good time to buy miners with fiat, if you believe than BTC price will raise. good way to get positive ROI sooner.

As always, as it was in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015....if you believe the price will rise, just buy the Bitcoin.

You're throwing away money and wasting time buying miners, if you're doing it strictly on speculation.

Too many factors against mining: electrical costs, downtime, upkeep, maintenance, cooling, difficulty, pool variance

Just buy BTC at the moment, it's at a discount price!   Cool

Bad logic.  There are many reasons why buying a miner could be better than buying BTC.  If people really believe that BTC will definitively increase in value, then the best option would seem to be selling everything you own for BTC that isn't essential to your immediate survival.

Obviously, that would be an unbelievably risky move, so basically anyone will factor in at least *some* level of risk.  For those who don't mind risk, buying BTC outright may be preferable.  However, if you hate risk, buying a miner can be a much safer option, especially in a bear market.  The trade off for that extra security is decreased profit potential over the long haul.

You don't buy miners when the price slumps, you just buy BTC, if you're speculating on a price hike.

You DO buy miners when the BTC fiat price is high, as it's more prohibitive to buy the coin outright, then it is to generate small amounts of it daily in hopes of making your fiat investment back.

Simple math for ROI, dude.  BTC In<=BTC Out

Buying a miner now with fiat, no matter which miners, you'll net negative BTC.  If you bought a miner for $500, mine back half a Bitcoin and Bitcoin spikes to $920 a Bitcoin, you're thinking, "WOW, I made back my investment!"   WRONG!

If you had bought $500 worth of Bitcoin, you'd have over 2 Bitcoins at today's price.

It's throwing good money at bad investments.



Responding sequentially:

1) First of all, when the price of btc falls, the fiat cost of miners also decreases.  Second, speculation exists to varied degree.  How much you believe in your speculation significantly determines your investment strategy and how much risk you are willing to take.  Buying a miner can be a way to carry less risk under not so uncommon conditions.

The fiat cost of miners may decrease, the but electrical and cooling costs don't.  Not sure if you're talking about a single miner, but if you a small farm, it doesn't make sense to run with those accumulating month to month hosting costs.

2) The cost of BTC in and of itself has absolutely no bearing on ROI. By this I mean that you can theoretically profit at any price level above $0.

Reading your posts, it's obvious that you're concentrated on Fiat profit first and foremost.  Nothing wrong with that, Fiat rules the world at the moment.

I like to deal with BTC in and out, easier to calculate profit and ROI, but I understand your idealogy.


3) Simple math for ROI, dude.  Fiat in <= fiat out

Once again, you deal with Fiat ROI and profit, nothing wrong with that.

Seeing as this is Bitcointalk forum, you may get a majority of different opinions than yours.


4) Uh, no, you're wrong. If you pay $500 for a miner and mine 1 BTC and sell the btc for $920, then your profit is $420 (excluding other expenditures).  If you buy with fiat, then profits are tracked in fiat.  If you buy with BTC, then profits are tracked in BTC.

Same argument.  Fiat or BTC ROI/profit.

The flaw in your reasoning is that you are making an advisement based upon the assumption that the price will *certainly* be higher in the future.  But what if the market goes down?  If you buy BTC and the price goes down, you *always* take a loss.  But with a miner it is possible to get >100% in a down market.  Also consider that you still have the value of your hardware.

Mining hardware depreciates faster than regular server or network equipment, much faster.  1 TH/s Dragons sold for $3,000-$4000 at launch early last year.  Now you can get Antminer S5s brand new for like $300.

5)  Sure, you could buy more than 2 BTC at these prices,  but if the price falls then you have 2 less valuable BTC.  And, if the price goes down, difficulty can go down and you mine more BTC.

Price can go up, down, sideways.  Your guess is as good as mine.

I think the majority of us are in it for the long haul.  Obviously you're focusing on the short term fiat amount for price stability's sake.


6) I've owned numerous rigs and ASICs that have achieved 100% ROI *solely* due to the fact that I either paid with fiat directly, or paid wth BTC but immediately repurchased the amount I spent.  In a few cases, the difference was >300%.

Fiat vs BTC profit once again.  Different strokes for different folks.





Your approach to things isn't wrong, I'm not disputing the fiat approach to things.  It's the current economic world we live in.

If the approach is to accumulate as much Bitcoin as possible, then it is wrong, however.

Agreed, profit-potential is generally greater if you purchase BTC outright as it would take an unlikely set of circumstances (especially given current ones) to generate more BTC than mining.

We both agree that we can't know future price movement.  But, let's consider the two main options we're focusing on: 1) We can buy BTC, and 2) We can buy a miner instead.

Currently, we are in a down market.  If at any point during the past year someone purchased BTC (and didn't successfully day-trade with it) and held it, they would have lost money.  Similarly, if they had purchased a miner with BTC, virtually all will have lost money.  The chance for ROI over the past year given these conditions is/was essentially 0%.

I've purchased several miners with fiat during the past year, and every single one of those achieved >200% ROI.  In other words, they were the best decisions I could have made at the time.  Pretty much anyone who has purchased a miner with fiat during the past year would have done far better than those who purchased BTC outright or bought a miner with BTC.

Basically, we agree on a lot of things, but the point I keep emphasizing is that, generally, buying a miner limits the range of potential gains but also losses, and therefore carries less risk in many ways.
749  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: I'm a sceptic, convince me! on: February 02, 2015, 03:23:54 PM
I have to admit that I'm sceptical about Bitcoin. I'll give you my reasons, then please convince me!

I'm optimistic about Bitcoin, but not fanatically so.  I'll try to give you some additional considerations.

Quote
Bitcoin is not backed by anything. It would probably not exist in a free market. Money in a free market has always been some kind of commodity. Something that has value beyond its use as a currency. The problem with Bitcoin is that it has no value beyond its use as a currency. Why should it then be regarded as money? Money came into being as a medium of exchange, so that if you got stuck with it it was useful in some way. It wasn't just a piece of paper. It was something that was useful in and of itself. Like gold. Like silver. Bitcoin has none of that. It's just a string of 0s and 1s. Where does it get its value from? I don't think in a free market it would be valued.

Whether a currency is "backed" by anything is of little importance, at least inasmuch as all money is backed by a mere belief in its value. In other words, money -- no matter what form -- ultimately has value because people believe it has value.  This holds true whether we're talking about fiat, gold, oil, whatever, etc.

Possibly the most important characteristic of money is that people can agree that it holds a common value.  In a bartering economy, this does not hold true.  For example, a gold coin considered outside the context of price consensus (i.e. outside gold's purported value depicted in the gold markets) may be much more valuable to one person than another, such as when one person needs a good electrical conductor and the other person doesn't, etc.

To this extent, a digital currency is arguably superior to gold.  You can argue that it is precisely because 1's and 0's are arbitrary and intangible that consensus of value can be achieved.  For example, sugar might be considered an "intrinsically valuable currency" since it has nutritional value outside of social consensus.  But, do you think that sugar is more valuable to a normal person or to a diabetic?  The arbitrariness of pure math can avoid this issue.

Also consider that the Blockchain is valuable in a way that Bitcoin as a currency is not.  Bitcoins derive their value in part by their integration with their own Blockchain.  Bitcoins would lose their value consensus if, say, only the Litecoin Blockchain existed.  So, as it turns out you can make an argument that bitcoins have some intrinsic value, but in the sense that useful bitcoins are inherently tied to the Blockchain (which is why testnet bitcoins on the testnet blockchain are worth jack).  The most profitable BTC companies to date are typically those that facilitate transactions on the Blockchain (and thereby increase its value and utility) such as payment processors, exchanges, and casinos.  The more the Blockchain is used and develops in the complexity of its inter-connectivity, the more socially valuable it becomes.

Quote
Something like Bitcoin could be used as a currency if it was backed by some commodity to do anonymous/quick transactions, but there would be a standard, ultimately, for exchange. It would always be exchangeable into e.g. gold. So that the banks who issued the Bitcoins were contractually obligated to redeem them into gold. Then Bitcoin would serve as a currency, but the money would be the gold.

The value of something is always related to something else.   Let's imagine, per your example, that BTC is backed by gold.  So, you can take 1 BTC and sell it anywhere in the world at market value and receive predictable sum of gold.  Okay, great.

Now you have gold.  Now suppose that after some time passes you want to sell your gold.  How valuable is that gold?  How did it get its value?

The point is that there are two (2) things that can always be stated about value: 1) Value is always relative and is thus subject to change, and 2) Intrinsic value does not necessarily equate to consensus value.  Because consensus value is required for a good form of money, and because value is always subject to change, the natural conclusion is that intrinsic value of money really doesn't matter at all.

Quote
There's also the problem with Bitcoin of inflation. Yes, there's a fixed amount of Bitcoins qua Bitcoin, but anyone can create alternative cryptocurrencies. I don't see why Bitcoin has any unique features that cannot be replicated by others, and therefore you will create massive inflation in a digital coin space.

There are two things I want to say, here.  First, inflation in and of itself is not bad, but actually can be very good for tempering certain market conditions; the only real problem is irresponsible inflation.  Second, alternative cryptocurrencies don't work with the Bitcoin Blockchain.  Sure, if new alt-coins emerge and people decide to move BTC holdings into those alts, then you can imagine it as though Bitcoin is being inflated (even though it isn't) because the sum of all cryptocurrencies in total will have inflated. But...

...I actually wonder if this is precisely why Satoshi didn't allow any room for inflation whatsoever (except by way of a hard fork).  In other words, I wonder if foreknowledge of alt-coin development led to the decision to make BTC completely deflationary, as a naturally-evolving inflation mechanism to help temper cryptocurrency markets in general would arise from the alt-coins themselves.

Quote
So why do I think Bitcoin is still valued today? I think it is because people are fearful of the dollar. They think it's gonna get useless, and they're looking for alternatives. Bitcoin is a product of this fear. Also, I think people are worrying about their privacy. And with good reason, given the growing government intrusion in our lives. People are looking for ways in which to remain private. In which to remain outside the government's abitily to monitor them. Bitcoin provides that. So right now it's providing a value. The value as privacy. The value that it's not paper money. But in a fre market, which we are all working to realize, I do not believe Bitcoin would exist.

I think it's a little fanciful to think BTC is valued today because people are fearful of the dollar.  I can't imagine that very many people use BTC primarily for ideological reasons, and if they do then I'm guessing money isn't especially tight for them right now (else it would be insane to speculate on this market).  I simply think BTC is valued today because its unique features allow it to be a preferable form of money transmission with specific regard to certain types of transactions.  Someone may use BTC for online gambling while using fiat for every other transaction in their lives, for example.  In my case, I prefer to sell things for BTC rather than fiat because I can avoid chargebacks and the enormous fees of eBay et. al., and because of the ease and timeliness of international transactions.

If people are really worrying about their privacy, they're probably doing something illegal or are irrationally paranoid (if you're instead talking about things like the seizure and confiscation of banking accounts, then I can concede the point, especially if you're a Cypriot).  Collecting all data everywhere is certainly unsettling, but filtering through that data is completely different.  If you aren't doing anything illegal or suspicious, there's simply no good reason to waste time and resources to parse through all that extraneous data.  I admit, though, that I'm not a fan of this kind of data collection.  It is unsettling.

I don't think the primary value is privacy.  I think the primary value is its integration with the valuable technology of the Blockchain, compounded by its growing use.
750  Other / Off-topic / Re: Scientific proof that God exists? on: February 02, 2015, 01:52:40 PM
Fuck I wish I could unsubscribe from this abortion of a thread. These discussion topics always end up proving that a big fat wall of stupid will remain long after the intellectual argument has been made and shouted down by way of never-ending logical fallacies.

Enjoy your intellectual dishonesty, theists, may it induce perpetual bouts of crippling anxiety until you finally have the emotional maturity to acknowledge how unhealthy it must be for your brain to maintain 'belief' in your Almighty Imagination.

It would be intellectually dishonest not to acknowledge "belief" in many other assumptions for which there is not a shred of evidence, some of which are absolutely required to engage in scientific exploration (which itself is unequipped to explore the concept of intelligent design).
751  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: Spondoolies-Tech vs Bitmain for a larger operation? on: January 31, 2015, 10:14:07 PM
@OP, I chuckled a bit at your enthusiasm, buying five of each to "compare the two."  Smiley

Is there any reason you didn't just get two SP20 Nano Farms?
752  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: Did you get ROI for your mining equipment? on: January 31, 2015, 12:00:49 AM
It is now a good time to buy miners with fiat, if you believe than BTC price will raise. good way to get positive ROI sooner.

As always, as it was in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015....if you believe the price will rise, just buy the Bitcoin.

You're throwing away money and wasting time buying miners, if you're doing it strictly on speculation.

Too many factors against mining: electrical costs, downtime, upkeep, maintenance, cooling, difficulty, pool variance

Just buy BTC at the moment, it's at a discount price!   Cool

Bad logic.  There are many reasons why buying a miner could be better than buying BTC.  If people really believe that BTC will definitively increase in value, then the best option would seem to be selling everything you own for BTC that isn't essential to your immediate survival.

Obviously, that would be an unbelievably risky move, so basically anyone will factor in at least *some* level of risk.  For those who don't mind risk, buying BTC outright may be preferable.  However, if you hate risk, buying a miner can be a much safer option, especially in a bear market.  The trade off for that extra security is decreased profit potential over the long haul.

You don't buy miners when the price slumps, you just buy BTC, if you're speculating on a price hike.

You DO buy miners when the BTC fiat price is high, as it's more prohibitive to buy the coin outright, then it is to generate small amounts of it daily in hopes of making your fiat investment back.

Simple math for ROI, dude.  BTC In<=BTC Out

Buying a miner now with fiat, no matter which miners, you'll net negative BTC.  If you bought a miner for $500, mine back half a Bitcoin and Bitcoin spikes to $920 a Bitcoin, you're thinking, "WOW, I made back my investment!"   WRONG!

If you had bought $500 worth of Bitcoin, you'd have over 2 Bitcoins at today's price.

It's throwing good money at bad investments.



Responding sequentially:

1) First of all, when the price of btc falls, the fiat cost of miners also decreases.  Second, speculation exists to varied degree.  How much you believe in your speculation significantly determines your investment strategy and how much risk you are willing to take.  Buying a miner can be a way to carry less risk under not so uncommon conditions.

2) The cost of BTC in and of itself has absolutely no bearing on ROI. By this I mean that you can theoretically profit at any price level above $0.

3) Simple math for ROI, dude.  Fiat in <= fiat out

4) Uh, no, you're wrong. If you pay $500 for a miner and mine 1 BTC and sell the btc for $920, then your profit is $420 (excluding other expenditures).  If you buy with fiat, then profits are tracked in fiat.  If you buy with BTC, then profits are tracked in BTC.

The flaw in your reasoning is that you are making an advisement based upon the assumption that the price will *certainly* be higher in the future.  But what if the market goes down?  If you buy BTC and the price goes down, you *always* take a loss.  But with a miner it is possible to get >100% in a down market.  Also consider that you still have the value of your hardware.

5)  Sure, you could buy more than 2 BTC at these prices,  but if the price falls then you have 2 less valuable BTC.  And, if the price goes down, difficulty can go down and you mine more BTC.

6) I've owned numerous rigs and ASICs that have achieved 100% ROI *solely* due to the fact that I either paid with fiat directly, or paid wth BTC but immediately repurchased the amount I spent.  In a few cases, the difference was >300%.
753  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: Did you get ROI for your mining equipment? on: January 30, 2015, 10:13:01 PM
It is now a good time to buy miners with fiat, if you believe than BTC price will raise. good way to get positive ROI sooner.

As always, as it was in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015....if you believe the price will rise, just buy the Bitcoin.

You're throwing away money and wasting time buying miners, if you're doing it strictly on speculation.

Too many factors against mining: electrical costs, downtime, upkeep, maintenance, cooling, difficulty, pool variance

Just buy BTC at the moment, it's at a discount price!   Cool

Bad logic.  There are many reasons why buying a miner could be better than buying BTC.  If people really believe that BTC will definitively increase in value, then the best option would seem to be selling everything you own for BTC that isn't essential to your immediate survival.

Obviously, that would be an unbelievably risky move, so basically anyone will factor in at least *some* level of risk.  For those who don't mind risk, buying BTC outright may be preferable.  However, if you hate risk, buying a miner can be a much safer option, especially in a bear market.  The trade off for that extra security is decreased profit potential over the long haul.
754  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: Did you get ROI for your mining equipment? on: January 30, 2015, 10:04:18 PM
It is now a good time to buy miners with fiat, if you believe than BTC price will raise. good way to get positive ROI sooner.

Bingo!  If history repeats, it's a great time to buy a miner with fiat.

The other benefit to buying a miner with fiat is that it is the *only* way to stand a chance at getting >100% ROI in a downtrend, even if it happens to require a very specific set of conditions (and it does).
755  Economy / Speculation / Re: And the crash continues on: January 29, 2015, 10:31:00 AM
Not necessarily...a much greater proportion of people can afford to buy in the lower the price gets. The wealthy can buy that many more. Once the price makes enough of a sharp rise people panic buy and then it just takes off.

Not to mention the block halving in 2016 will cut the number of new bitcoins produced per day in half...

It's just as easy and affordable to buy btc at $5000/btc as it is at $5/btc, you just get more or less btc depending..

It's basic human psychology, or psych 101...people are going to buy more of something when it is cheaper.


It's not as simple as that.  You should know this by your own experience, i.e. I'm guessing you aren't buying all the alt-coins that have fallen off a cliff. 

The factor you are missing is demand.  Demand increases when perceived utility (not necessarily the same as price value) increases.  For example, you aren't rushing to buy all the alts because they yield little utility if you are the only one using them.
756  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: CoinBase - Not licensed on: January 28, 2015, 09:25:07 PM
Well, they've received well over >$200 Million through crowd-funding.  I'm pretty sure everyone threw that money into an illegal operation.  Especially the NYSE.
757  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: Did you get ROI for your mining equipment? on: January 28, 2015, 05:09:56 PM
I think you'll find that those who have paid for miners with fiat have had much more success getting >100% ROI.  I always buy with fiat, and in several cases now it's made the difference between <100% ROI and >300% ROI.
758  Bitcoin / Press / Re: [2015-01-27] CNN Money: Winklevoss twins: Bitcoin will explode beyond $1 tr. on: January 27, 2015, 03:35:21 PM
http://money.cnn.com/2015/01/27/investing/bitcoin-winklevoss-twins-gold/

Quote
But the Internet entrepreneurs are taking it one step further. They believe Bitcoin could one day morph into a gold-like asset class -- or even surpass it. "If Bitcoin is a better gold or seen as a type of gold-like asset, then it could be in the trillions on a market cap," Tyler Winklevoss told CNNMoney. "We do feel those are very real possibilities."

I don't wan't to be pessimistic... but a 250x rise in market cap? For me, this is lunacy.  Angry


It really just depends how viable it turns out to be long-term.  If BTC is "good enough" for most people, then it's really not lunacy at all.  If hedge funds sink their teeth into the pie at some point, a >trillion-dollar market-cap is hardly unrealistic.  Then again, I've been around since 2011, so I've seen that type of growth (surely BTC's current position would have been considered "lunacy" back then, and it was).
759  Other / Meta / Re: Tomatocage is trust abuser/lier on: January 25, 2015, 10:04:05 PM
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=37522

This kid is totaly retarded
After i show him how many feedback offsite i got offsite to realize his mistake,he still continue to fake lies and abusing the trust system.
If the moderators/escrows are as him,this community/forum is cancer.
He realized that he did mistake,and obviously i'n not only not a scammer but more trusted than him,he blocked the messages i can send to him.
He realize he did mistake but still don't want to remove it abusing the trusted system.
People like you is cancer to all online trading
How come escrows start lying and posting negative feedback randomly and abusing the trust system?
You know what carma is right? you will end someday poor and useless glassed fat scum begging for food in the street oneday
And i will still continue to be more trusted and 10000x more rich than you
Lets everyone see what a retarded cunt you are,accepting your mistake but still abusing the trust level.
Moderatos here are shits to trust you and to accept you as escrow consider you are lier.
https://i.imgur.com/b64nsBo.png

P.S: Its not like i can't buy account for less than 30 dollars and continue my shits.But i don't like lying faggots like you.
Lets everyone see what escrow bitcointalk got and how he lying around

I had a good experience with tomatocage, could you show a proof that he admitted that he made a mistake? You just show a post where he says he will not remove his negative trust ratings. Thanks.

At this point, his proof doesn't matter.  He's just going around giving people negative feedback and falsely accusing others of being scammers for either no good reason or no reason at all.
760  Other / Meta / Re: Tomatocage is trust abuser/lier on: January 24, 2015, 02:47:06 AM
Well, V. Kodoff decided to leave me some feedback:

Quote
Scammer,retard and cancer kid
Avoid in all costs

I love how you linked reference to this thread  Cheesy

I'm on default trust at depth=2, so...ouch?
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