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7581  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: bitcoins question 1e payment on: December 10, 2012, 02:21:19 PM
Might be nice to throw a NSFW next to your link but yes Bitcoin is Bitcoin.
7582  Economy / Speculation / Re: When in 2013 shall Bitcoin break its all-time-high of $31? on: December 10, 2012, 01:57:54 PM
No. If price followed cost of production then the price would be at least $20 right now. However, people won't be willing to sell their Bitcoins for less than what they spent to generate them, so it's partially true.

Where do you get that idea from?  For current generation hardware difficulty would need to at least quadruple before cost of production would be $20.00 and all signs indicate a slow decline in difficulty until ASICs are released.

A well built GPU rig can achieve 3 MH/J and $2 per MH/s in capital costs.  Lets amortize that over 12 months (assume zero residual value) and a moderately low power cost of $0.07 per kWh.

Hashes per BTC = (nonces per diff 1 * difficulty) / (BTC per block)
Hashes per BTC =  (2^32 * 3.4E6)/ ( 25 )
Hashes per BTC =  5.84E14
MH per BTC =  5.84E8


Power costs per BTC (@ $0.07 per kWh):
Power per BTC = (5.84E8 / ( 3 * 60 * 60 * 1000)
Power per BTC = 1351 kWh
Power cost per BTC = 1351kWh * $0.07 per kWh = $3.785


Capital cost per BTC (@ $2 per MH/s & 12 month amortization):
Lifetime MH per dollar of capital cost = (1 MH/s / $2.00) * (60s * 60s/h * 24h/d * 365d)
Lifetime MH per dollar of capital cost = 1.58E7 MH/$
Capital cost per BTC = (1.58E7 MH/$) / (5.84E8 MH / BTC)
Capital cost per BTC = $0.27 per BTC


Total Amortized Cost = $4.06 per BTC*

*Note this isn't to say one should be building new rigs today given the future difficulty may be magnitudes higher due to ASICs however I didn't want to include only the power component of an existing rig.
7583  Economy / Economics / Re: What would happen if everyone got 1000 USD every month? on: December 09, 2012, 06:32:55 PM
For anyone who thinks this would not be harmful, what is the problem (if any) with giving $10000 or $100000/mo?

Or just make the minimum wage law $100,000 per year (and while your at it tax income at >$100,000 at 100%).  See the government doesn't own the means of production, it is still capitalism right?
7584  Economy / Economics / Re: What would happen if everyone got 1000 USD every month? on: December 09, 2012, 04:51:02 PM
Agreed.  My post was getting long so it shouldn't be considered an exhaustive analysis of governmental policy.  There are numerous other reasons why taxation, especially via multiple methods is preferred.
7585  Economy / Economics / Re: What would happen if everyone got 1000 USD every month? on: December 09, 2012, 04:42:49 PM
Note the idea of a BGI isn't new and it isn't necessarily bad.  I personally would be for a BGI IF it replaced various other handouts (welfare, medicaid, foodstamps, disability, HUD homes program, low income housing subsidies, etc).   It would be less "corrupt" and less open to misuse and abuse.

Still pretending it is different than taxation and welfare is intellectually dishonest.  It is the confiscation of wealth from one group and the transfer of that wealth to another group via the government's monopoly of violence.  Don't pretend that away.

7586  Economy / Economics / Re: What would happen if everyone got 1000 USD every month? on: December 09, 2012, 04:07:56 PM
OP it is still socialism and it is still paid for (mostly) by the rich.  
It is a indirect form of wealth confiscation and transfer.  Not materially different in the outcome of using taxes to fund welfare or other programs.
The fact that you make it universal doesn't really change anything other than how it is implemented.

Quote
Hypothetical scenario.

Population is 1 million people.
Total GDP: $50 billion.
Most modern economies have a velocity of ~1 so lets assume monetary base (pre "print & give") is ~= GDP = $50 billion
We will call this the "pre print & give economy".

Now lets compare two example persons in this economy:
Quote
homeless man
Income of $5,000 annually (odd jobs, panhandling, crime, etc).
The $5K has $5K of purchasing power in the "pre print & give economy"

small business owner
Income of $250,000 annually.*
The $250K has $250K of purchasing power in the "pre print & give economy"
* Technically the the SB owner would pay taxes and thus his post tax income would be lower however it doesn't materially change this comparison so for simplicity it has been left off.

Now lets look at the "post print & give" economy.
Quote
Now the govt prints an additional $10K and gives it to every person so that increases the money supply by $10B.
No additional wealth has been created.  Money is merely an accounting system.   You now have more slips of paper (physical or digital) which can be exchanged for the same amount of goods and services.
We would expect to see ($10B + $50B) / ($50B) = 20% price inflation.

So lets go back to our two persons.
The homeless man now has $5K + $10K = $15K in income.  
However prices have increased 20% so his purchasing power (in pre "print & give" dollars) is $15K / 1.2 =  $12.5K annually.  
An increase of 150%.  Remember nominal numbers are irrelivent.  If tomorrow your central bank doubled the effective money supply you would expect prices (including your wages) to double however you wouldn't be any richer
or poorer.  Adjusted for inflation (in real terms) you income and wealth would be exactly the same.


The business owner now has $250K + $10K = $260K in income.  
However prices have increased 20% so his purchasing power (in pre "print & give" dollars) is $260K / 1.2 =  $216K annually.  
An decrease of 13%.

You have taken wealth from one person and given it to another.
Note that for these two people you could acheive the exact same goal (transfer of wealth from rich to poor) via a tax funded welfare program.  
Say instead of operation "print & give" you had instead given $7,500 in welfare to anyone below the poverty line and paid for it with a tax increase of 13% on the income of everyone above it.

Under that scenario:
Homeless man.  $5K in income + $7,500 govt handout = $12,500 in income (money supply not expanded) An increase of 150%.
Business owner.  $250 income - (13% tax = $33K tax) = $216K in income (money supply not expanded) A decrease of 13%.
Exactly the same outcome (in inflation adjusted dollars = purchasing power) as the "print & give".

Money isn't wealth.  Increased money doesn't result in increased wealth.  Money is merely an accounting system.  Increased Productivity results in increased wealth.   You can't produce wealth by merely changing the accounting "rules".  All you are doing is moving wealth from one person to another.  The net effect is zero.

Also to expand your mind a little a similar though process ... a government with control of the printing presses doesn't even need to collect taxes (or borrow).  They govt can simply print enough money to cover operations and thus "tax" people indirectly via inflation.  For example the US govt spends roughly 25% of GDP.  The govt could simply print 25% more money each year and collect no taxes and issue no treasury bonds.   Someone making $100K would simply be "taxed" $20K because the price of all goods and services would rise 25% and thus $100K would only buy what $80K bought the year prior.  Government choose taxation over monetizing operation costs because it allows them to influence (manipulate) via tax policy.  With indirect "taxation" via inflation the effect is universal (i.e. solar panels rise in price as much as crack cocaine does).


The reverse is also true.  In the US there has over the years been a proposal called the "fair tax" it would be a flat sales tax to replace all other forms of taxation in the country.  One criticism of sales taxes is they hurt the work (especially the working poor).  The "fair tax" system would use a prebate.  If the sales tax is 20% and you wanted to in effect make the first $30K in income "tax free" the government would simply (in this case via collected funds not via printing) send $30,000 * 20% = $6,000 to every person.    So a family making $50K  would have $50K + $6K = $56K.  Lets pretend they save nothing and spend it all.  They would pay 20% * $56K = $11K in taxes at the cash register - $6K prebate = ~$5K in taxes for an effective tax rate of 10%.  Someone making $30K would have an effective tax rate of 0%.  Someone making (technically spending) $1,000,000 would have an effective tax rate of 19.4%.  Someone making $200M would have an effective tax rate of 19.997%.
7587  Economy / Lending / Re: 1 Bitcoin Loan BUILDING COMMUNITIES TRUST - PAID WITHIN 48 HOURS on: December 09, 2012, 02:28:13 AM
Would you like to see business documents? We are legit, EIN and a DBA and a DnB Profile.

No need.  Just provide the name of the state where you filed your articles of organization.  An LLC has a specific meaning.  It is a legal construct that exists independently of its owners.

So in which state(s) is B.F.S.,LLC registered?


7588  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: The ITU members decided to adopt the Y.2770 standard for DPI on: December 06, 2012, 11:54:33 PM
No I am sure on that.
7589  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Re: Why was this transaction not included in a block? on: December 06, 2012, 11:35:00 PM
It is only included in 1 block.  The 2nd and 3rd ... and 8th confirmation simply mean more blocks have been found AFTER the block containing your tx.  Your tx, its fee (or lack of fee) has absolutely no effect on the 2nd confirmation onward. 

The fact that it got 8 confirmations "quickly" simply means 7 more blocks were found "quickly" after the block containing your tx.
7590  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: The ITU members decided to adopt the Y.2770 standard for DPI on: December 06, 2012, 10:49:24 PM
Govts control ... that is what they do ... that is all they do.

Then again you can't deep packet inspect an encrypted packet.

Deep Packest Inspector "Hmm I deeply know this packet is still encrypted".
7591  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: You think you don't need to trust blockchain.info ? Think again on: December 06, 2012, 07:56:54 PM
Why does blockchain's mywallet use a JS wallet and a browser plugin to verify it? Why not simply a browser plugin like lastpass? Wouldn't that be more secure?

The advantage of having the encryption and signing done in javascript is the source is available.  Can you make a browser plugin in javascript?  If so then it likely isn't any more secure but it certainly isn't any less secure.  If the browser plugin is running opaque code then it is significantly less secure than using javascript.
7592  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Publicly released some of the magic potion that goes into physical bitcoins! on: December 06, 2012, 07:51:55 PM
Thanks, I will give it a go.
I do have a question, it is not probably new, to Bitcoin, if 1000 people are generating addresses at the same time what stops the your system from making 2 identical addresses on alternate systems?

Same thing which prevents 2 random bitcoin users on the planet from making the same address.

The simple version is 2^256 is much much much larger than you think.   A billion users, each generating a billion keys a year for a billion years has a ~0% chance of producing a duplicate.
7593  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: [ANN] Bitcoin Magazine has New Ownership on: December 06, 2012, 07:27:02 PM
Bitcoin Magazine is dead, long live Bitcoin Magazine!  *
7594  Economy / Services / Re: CellCoin: Pay for your Prepaid Wireless Refills with bitcoins and save up to 5% on: December 06, 2012, 06:28:45 PM
No RedPocket at the moment?

We actually do have the ability to generate Red Pocket Mobile PINs.  I need to check the with distributor on the discount.  Worst case scenario is it would be retail price.

Code:
Red Pocket $10 Pin
Red Pocket $25 Pin
Red Pocket 3G $19.99
Red Pocket 3G $29.99
Red Pocket 3G $39.99
Red Pocket 3G $49.99
Red Pocket 3G $54.99
Red Pocket $13.99 (7 days)
Red Pocket $22.99 (15 days)
7595  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Re: How to protect one hard drive from another on: December 06, 2012, 06:25:01 PM
There is no way to hide a drive from the OS.   One option would be to create a truecrypt partition (encrypted "drive") on the SSD drive and simply never decrypt it except when you are booted into the OS you like.  Since the decryption key won't ever be used/stored/left in temp files/in memory/etc on the "win8" partition won't  be able to decrypt the truecrypt partition.

Baring user error (like accidentally decrypt the secure partition from the "causal OS") there is nothing that can be done.  Any malware can see the drive, see the encrypted partition but lacking the decrypt key can't do anything about it.
7596  Economy / Securities / Re: what do u think? on: December 06, 2012, 04:46:43 AM

So what does the sum of 1/(2^i) for i=1..infinity converge to?

trick question, that formula does not converge or it is 0 and your picking my brain now

Ouch and it was an easy one ....

Seriously on the propsal in the OP. I recommend taking a copy offline, cleaning it up, and in the meantime redact the contents of the OP.   Now.  Honestly step back pretend someone else just handed you the OP and read it from an outsiders point of view.  Would you give money to someone who presented that plan to you?  Honestly?  Going into side topics about people coming over to rape you, and how you own a Glock?  Joking or not is comes off as childish and dysfunctional.  Generally when trying to get others to invest money coming off as childish and dysfunctional is not a good thing.
7597  Economy / Securities / Re: what do u think? on: December 06, 2012, 04:19:34 AM
If you intend to use the proceeds of the bond to buy some paragraphs and return keys well sign me up for a 100 shares.
7598  Economy / Securities / Re: [BTCT.CO] BTC-GOLD: 100 shares = 1 gram gold bullion on: December 05, 2012, 11:56:25 PM
One option is to price shares in SPOT only.  If someone wants to take delivery then they can pay a coinage fee (you are already going to charge shipping and possibly insurance on large deliveries anyways right)?  Then your gold reserve can be a mix of various coins (1/4 oz, 1/2 oz, 1 oz) and bars (5 oz, 10 oz).  There is one limitation to this though.  Your cost (until delivery occurs) will be higher than the net value of shares.  ETN generally handle this by either a) getting a cut of tx fees and/or b) doing a reverse split to cover fund operating costs (i.e. 100 shares is reverse split to 98 = 2% fund operating cost).  My understanding is that no exchange currently offers the ability to do reverse splits or entitles funds to a % of transaction fees.  You could roll all your fees/cost/profit into the delivery portion but it may mean you are equity "rich" and cash poor if you issue a lot of shares and nobody takes delivery.

Still having the fund be in spot only is the cleanest way to handle things, I would try to think of a way doing that.  Otherwise it is going to get "ugly" if/when you start mixing coins coin sizes (or buying coins in bulk which have a lower premium relative to spot).

If the legal aspect wasn't so risky I was considering opening a bitcoin denominated gold ETF using the method above.  Of course now I have way more than enough projects to occupy my time.
7599  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: [COMMUNITY] Taaki, never tell anyone you are involved with Bitcoin ever again. on: December 05, 2012, 10:51:10 PM
The fact that the transcript is punctuated with "yeah", "um", and "like", and expresses the need to point out he "mispelled" (sic) my name in a Google search doesn't reflect well on the transcriber.  If he is allegedly an idiot, it would have to be because of the message, and not because he says "um" a lot.  I haven't read the transcript all the way through, but am bothered by the fact that I am seemingly being asked him to judge him on his ability to articulate sentences in public, something that isn't a prerequisite for being who he is.

I can overlook the ums, yeahs, and likes.  I do it all the time, so do most people without really good public speaking skills. 

However what is painful is things like:

1) using the word "we".  "we are not a flashy startup".  He can't speak for Bitcoin.  It would be like someone giving a presentation on the internet and using "we" as if they own, control, and operate the internet. 

2) "I think".  As in "I think the banks will fail".  Irrelivent.  If the person in the audience disagrees with that statement they have just been tuned out.

3) Blantantly false or exagurated claims.  "apparently I can buy almost anything in Finland".  What is worse is the word apparently is a weasel word.  It leads the audience to doubt the claim almost as soon as it is said.  In this case they would be right.  Someone midly interested does their own research finds out it is false and then they dismiss the entire presentation.  Its bad.  In presenting unless you know a statement, claim, or fact is 100% guaranteed accurate don't say it.

4) Insisting there are no fees.  Hey Taaki what are these http://blockchain.info/charts/transaction-fees?  Also hint hint the subsidy is a form of hidden fee.  When 1% more coins are minted all existing coins have their value reduced by 1%.  Granted the demand is growing faster than the minting rate and thus price rises but Bitcoin HAS FEES.    Honestly the claim "no fees" is not only wrong it is counterproductive.  First it makes Bitcoin seem even more implausible.  If there are no fees then who/what pays for the network?  Is it a bunch of socialists who believe in "the common good" and expend energy, labor, and capital to give a superior product for free.   Saying "no fees" is just stupid.  THERE ARE FEES.  Say "lower fees than any other payment processing system", "very small fees", "some transactions may pay a small fee, we are talking less than a penny folks, and many transactions are free".

5) Not answering the question asked.  Not sure what was going on here but surprisingly the audience had some good questions.  Questions completely ignored in some cases.   If you don't know say ... I don't know.  Simply talking about something else as an answer makes it seem like there is something to hide.


For the record I am not saying I am an amazing public speaker but anyone representing Bitcoin at a confrence, presentation, or in the media please
1) Leave your rhetoric at home
2) Get your facts rights
3) If it is a planned event write down your talking points and have the community critique them BEFORE you come off as an ass.
4) If you really want to help Bitcoin (and not just your own ego) take a public speaking class
5) (and this is something I do personally for meetings) try to anticipate the likely questions and have answers.  It will help you stay on script and seem more knowledgeable.
6) PLEASE be sure to emphasis Bitcoin is an open source project.  Be sure the audience understands that you are just one person working on (bitcoin related ventures, improving source code, doing academic research, launching a startup, etc).  If will help to perform damage control if you total FAIL HARD.  "Well that guy was a flake but Bitcoin does sound interesting".
7600  Economy / Goods / Re: [REDUCED 5%].99 Silver Below Spot (Seriously) INVEST ! on: December 05, 2012, 05:18:54 AM
So if you are not careful casting in sterling silver, you wind up with a higher purity? That doesn't seem right.

He is right.  Note I am not vouching for the quality of his wares but his explanation is correct.

Imagine 1 oz of sterling silver.  It is 0.925 oz of pure silver and 0.075 oz of impurities (mostly copper).  By controlling the temp so it is ABOVE silver melting temp and BELOW copper melting temp what is molten isn't 1 oz it is ~0.925 oz* and it isn't 92% silver it is 100% silver.*  The rest remains solid in the crucible and doesn't get poured into the new form.  Now in this example you only have 0.925 oz not 1 oz so if you wanted to make a oz form you would need to add some more "pure" (normally 99.9 fine) silver.

* Now in the real world you will never get the temp exactly right.  Some of the copper will heat up to melting point and join the molten silver.  So you won't be able to exclude all the copper.  Also silver has other impurities which have a lower melting point so they are going to come along for the ride.  Still the point is that a significant portion of anything with a higher melting point than silver gets "left behind" and thus what gets poured into the form is higher quality.
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