Seems to me that you are complaining (if we want to call it that) about the interference of the natural ways of the free market which would more likely just follow a supply and demand curve.  So if there are guys meeting in private meeting and wanting to either collude in terms of stating industrial preferences and sure maybe Elon is wanting to look "green" in order to get subsidies, which is not exactly either free market or following where supply and demand might more naturally take incentives.

By the way, don't get me wrong because necessarily anti-government or of the belief that free market is going to take care of all problems - even though I understand that bitcoin likely has built in incentives that would likely both cause efficiencies or the searching of energy sources that are under utilized with a presumption that those under utilized energy sources would be cheaper to allow them more profits relative to their competition.



There is no need for me to argue with any of this - even though some miners are going to have stronger abilities to hold for longer periods than others, either economies of scale or maybe they have found some other efficiencies that other miners might not have been able to achieve.  Also mismanagement or even superior management could cause efficiencies or lack thereof.


Whether meetings are beneficial or not to the players might be one thing and whether the meetings do anything might be a related thing, so if there is an ability to create an image, that could still be doing something for the participant(s) even if it might not do anything material and substantive for the environment, except create an appearance of doing something. 

I doubt that you (suchmoon) and I are very far apart on these questions, even though we are framing some of the ways of talking about it differently.

You mean proudhon is going to give you a gift?  it's a one way bet, right?.. proudhon promised to give a gift at a certain point if BTC does not reach a certain price point, and would that be the end of 2021 or a different timeline?  I cannot recall... and surely, nice if you have a 2x cushion in there, too.

Whoaza!!!!  10x from here.  Is that guaranteed or confirmed or anything like that?



EXACTSamente

STOPS ur lil selfies from UPvoting this peep.

Instead upvote Biodom who happens to know that we's got's our lil selfies: 1) significant quantities of resistance at $42k/$43k (recently amended to $48k/$50k.. like in this post.. not that he is not staying current), 2) pretty damned high likelihood of visiting $25k and 3) perilous futures upon going below $25k.. including end of dee bull market for dis here cycle... kiss ur lil butts (if you have them or ur ratt's asses)  good byes if we gets our lil selfies breaks in the $25k support.    


You surely are making shit up and grasping at straws if you have to bring the virus into this conversation.


hahahaha

That's fine.. you can ignore this ratt's ass and reflect upon the many bad that used to happen in ur wall observing history before you became enlightened to how you had been manipulated by a NOT peep.  Perhaps a gay frog in a tin foil hat.    

if you were logically coherent (which u tend to NOT be) you should not have anything against frogs, as long as they have laser eyes, rite?

Hey, that reminds me.. where is my laser eye hat, @homer bomer?  U been discriminating against dees here kinds of peeps (I mean not peeps, whoops)?


ooooo?  we are making progress, no?  We don't have to watch $42k to $43k no moar?



That sucks!



Plus, I (we, if there is any left?) have to wait, too?  Sssssshhhhiiiiiittttteeee.      

Surely there are needs for fine balancing whenever attempting to predict anything - especially when it involves the future and bitcoin


So far I have not heard anything about MSTR participating in any future's markets, and sure it could be within parameters of what they are already authorized to do, but they might have to disclose that too... especially if it might go beyond certain value numbers.. but if it is just small numbers they may not need to disclose because I think with any regulations there is going to be some discretion when working with values that do not constitute large percentages of overall value...

but you, The Pharmacist, seem to be suggesting that it would be prudent for MSTR to take even larger future positions to hedge against the seemingly large (out of this world range) long positions they already have taken, and if MSTR were taking the kinds of future positions that you seem to be suggesting to be prudent, then they would likely have to disclose such positions.  I am thinking that Saylor considers levels of prudence a wee bit differently than you, The Pharmacist.  For example, he has made pretty damned strong ass statements against diversification and hedging to assert that those are NOT smart moves once you have identified the winner (or leader) of a category, and surely Saylor has quite vigorously asserted that he believes bitcoin to be and above and beyond any other potential competitor in its area, and therefore there is no need to hedge in that kind of a way, which would also likely affect his thinking about futures, too... and sure, time will tell if he ends up being correct about the currently seeming strong positions that he has so far been taking in terms of bitcoin.


Surely the facts seem to be on your side, fillippone, with this claim about pretty much unipotent (or is it omnipotent?) Saylor power in terms of his company, and probably the BIGGEST loophole that could undermine Saylor's position or put him in jeopardy would not be from various ways that votes might be conjured up whether talking about shareholders, investors, workers or any other category of stakeholder, but there is just the amorphous public company category that requires full and adequate disclosures to the public, which kind of gives me the sense that Saylor goes overboard on his public disclosure practices because he realizes that lacking in public disclosures would likely be his weakest link (achilles heel) if anyone were to attempt to play gotcha with him whether it were to be a shareholder, regulator or some other stakeholder trying to undermine him.

Seems to me that Saylor is using his own money and other peoples money, so surely, he has taken a pretty aggressive stance toward bitcoin, but it is NOT only other people's money.

In regards to his company being a public company, he has a lot of control over the company, and it seems that he has gone overboard on the disclosures that are necessary by law, but of course, there could well be some motivations that some USA regulators might want to attempt to go after him.. if they believe that he might be going overboard or just that there is a bit of hostility to bitcoin, even though they might not want to outright admit it.   

We might be getting far afield but there can be passive aggressive behaviors from regulators in many respects too.. so they will tolerate various bullshit from Elon as long as he seems to be attempting to undermine confidence in bitcoin.. Similar things could well be going on with shitcoins like ethereum in which there is some tolerance for the bullshit to be allowed because there could be ways to undermine bitcoin by having people believe in a piece of shit smoke and screen system like ethereum.. but maybe ethereum might get too big for its britches at some point, too... but in any event, when peeps get out there and actually talk the sound money points and do not mince words, like Saylor seems to have been doing in the past 10 months or so, there might be considerable desires bring him down a notch or two.. He surely is not untouchable, even so far, there has not been any publicity to go after him from USA regulators or even to claim that Saylor is doing a speculative attack on the dollar.. which could be a plausible accusation.. .. whether it would be good for the USA government to go after him might be another story in terms of potentially causing a Streisand effect... its a risk... and also risk of wack-a-mole, too.


I doubt that all bitcoiners are necessarily on the same page, but whether it is a good idea to be going against some of Saylor's tactics seems problematic too.  He has been providing free seminars for other companies to imitate his tactics, and sure charging some of them for "elite" access, and so there are going to be all kinds of ways that banks of the future get transformed and some of the ways are going to be adopting some traditional models or attempts to work/"play" within various existing systems.

People are going to do all kinds of shit, so on the balance are their actions good, bad, ugly or something else will likely vary too.. bitcoin does not give any shits about who comes in or does not come in... so there can be good guys and bad guys criminals and child pornographers.  Some of this will be creative and maybe some of the criminals will be able to get away with it, but maybe governments are going to need to become more creative in terms of figuring out what is going on and which behaviors might be enforceable and what will not.

Banks are also going to need to figure out ways to still maintain relevance in these kinds of changing dynamics.  Are new laws going to pass?  Sure.  Is there going to be possible lobbying in terms of Saylor cheating or not playing by the rules or trying to bring traditional banking to bitcoin?  Sure.

Some of us can attempt to get prescriptive in terms of what we want or what we do not want, and some of us will just be trying to roll with the punches and recognize that all kinds of changes are going to continue to take place, and on balance, I am having troubles considering Saylor as some kind of bad guy or bad influence in the whole scheme of things.. at least so far but maybe I haven't seen some of his true colors or maybe I don't appreciate the gravity of the situation as much as you seem to, suchmoon?



I cannot disagree with you, and surely there has been a decent amount of attention coming to the energy question in recent times, and I doubt that people are just going to accept green label bullshit without attempting to have some further assessments, and sure there might not always be agreement regarding weighing costs versus benefits of any technologies, and some technologies that are subsidized might not be as green as they are being made out to be in terms of privatizing the profits and publicly subsidizing some of the costs... 

Longer term bitcoiners surely are not newbies in terms of dealing with various misinformation talking points, and even if some of the misinformation can latch on for a while, there still could be some aftermath information and studies that come out to help in clarifying the varying ways that some of us might have gotten duped by the earlier spins.. so surely there can be a lot of taking matters with a considerable grain of salt, anyhow, even if we can see there are supposed "green" trends that are window dressing rather than having any actual material and significant substance behind them.


Surely I would not really know this, and sometimes the miners themselves might want to put out disinformation in order to keep out competition.
I see all kinds of numbers on how much it costs to mine a bitcoin, and sure I recognize that some sources are likely more credible than others.  The more that you are involved in mining the more you might care about this, but also sometimes folks spout out theories of expected BTC price movement based on mining costs, too, and surely I take some of that with a grain of salt too and appreciate that peeps going to have differing perspectives about what causes what, and probably many of us appreciate that it is not exactly a one way street.. and even some miners might purposefully mine at a loss for a considerable amount of time to attempt to flush out competition too.

Anyhow, I guess my point is that there can be a lot of variables in terms of assessing overall mining costs or mining by region or even mining by scope of the operation or the way that a mining pool might be administratively set up to be able to be more profitable or not... and then also ways of shifting between shitcoins that could help with profitability and also prop up shitcoins that don't deserve to be propped up.. but if they are profitable, then that may well be the way that mining gets directed, at least in the short term, and some miners are more set up for fast switching (its like the fast twitching muscle) and others are not fucking around with shitcoins.. but they might get forced out of business if the shitcoiners are able to suck off of fluff and froth, and so I guess I am saying that there are all kinds of dynamics to attempt to assess profitability or not and also efficiency or not and purported "green" or not.



Of course, you probably know about these matters better than me, but I would think that there is going to be some value for miners to have a variety of options and maybe even be able to move quickly if needed.   We could sit here and come up with examples all day long, but a mining operation that was set up in texas and mostly running off of solar and wind and maybe even excess oil might have felt himself in a pinch when the energy grid went to shit for a while in December.. so there could be a lot of renewables that are reliable in a certain area, but then there could end up being a bit of saturation of miners in an area too, right.. if all the miners hear that Washington is the place to be, then regulators can sometimes fuck that up, too.. especially after 100 mining pools (or whatever is the number) shows up in the outskirts of Spokane or whatever other non-suburb location is suitable for such low cost and supposedly green sustainable and efficient (and whatever other buzz words) energy sources might be present.. right?  So sometimes there could be some incentives for miners to be secretive about their location and whatever contracts they were able to negotiate.. whether green or not, whether reliable or not and whether the local government might break those agreements or not after the public finds out.


Not everyone is going to recognize the ramifications of what they are doing at the time they do it, but still might not stop them from doing it because it seems like the "right thing" to do at that particular time that they do it.



Sure.. deals are not always in the public interest... that's for sure... and some people, institutions have more bargaining clout than others.  That's how the world works, last time that I checked, and might not even be just or fair, either.


You already said that they do not reflect all of the miners because they failed/refused to invite you... so whether these guys are at the right table or if it ends up being like the 2017 NY segwit2x blocksize agreement might still to be determined, no?


You are not going to get any argument from me on that point.    #nohomo

   
Standards are pie in the sky, all over the place.  na noo na noo.

don't uie puie no nuttin

 

Of course, Microstrategies has created financial instruments and even various public disclosures that provide them with a pretty much blank slate in terms of being able to do what they want (at their discretion) to be able to sell their bitcoin, but at the same time, MSTR is a bit of a unique beast in terms of mostly being controlled by Saylor and Saylor pretty clearly and unambiguously that he does not consider bitcoin as a kind of thing that you fuck around with in terms of trading - so he has clearly and unambiguously stated that he is "in" bitcoin for the longrun, and he has backed that up with rationale and various sound money talking points - so he really seems to be quite an exception in terms of not ONLY getting what bitcoin is about, being well able to articulate what bitcoin is about and largely putting his money where his mouth is.

I understand that many of us have become jaded about trusting what any politicians or corporate leaders or other "thought leaders" say in terms of what they are going to do and in what circumstances that they are going to do it, so I will agree with any assertion that we need to take statements with a certain grain of salt and not get too reliant upon what someone like Saylor says he is going to do.  However, at the same time, I would not be presuming that he is going to sell at $100k or $200k or even any higher price either (even that is something that you would do or something you believe that he should do.. blah blah blah), because you are merely attributing the opposite to him than what he said that he was going to do with absolutely no evidence to back it up beyond speculation that he is going to do the opposite merely because people will sometimes do the opposite or whatever other jaded perspective might have been embedded into your thinking through the years.. hahahahahaha.

Personally, I consider it to be way more reasonable to consider and presume that Saylor is going to do what he said that he is going to do, and if Saylor ends up backing out of what he said or NOT doing what he said, then cross that bridge at that time.. It is not going to be the end of the world, if Saylor ends up being a liar or a person that speaks out of both sides of his mouth, but we surely do not have a scant of evidence to suggest that he is that kind of person.. as far as I have seen so far to date. 

Furthermore, none of us should be putting anyone (whether Saylor or any other long term bitcoiner) on a pedestal.. even though at the same time, we surely can (and probably should) appreciate various contributions that some of the longer term bitcoiners have made to the space, but if they start to talk gobbledy gook shitcoiner nonsense or seem to be acting like personal opportunists that you cannot rely upon what they say to be honest, then of course, they should be called out on those kinds of things...and sometimes we might not even agree about what is good behavior or bad behavior.. and I suppose that some issues might escalate regarding disagreements.. and sure, we can respect what Saylor has done so far in his ONLY about 10 months of publicly speaking about bitcoin and we can even agree with him on a variety of the positions that he has taken in regards to bitcoin, but we should not be afraid to lecture him or to call him out if he does end up getting on the wrong side of things from our own perspective(s).. and he has been called out on a few things so far by some bitcoiners (such as his seemingly friendly posture towards the need for regulatory clarity in the BTC space)... which I see absolutely no problem with people expressing differing opinions on that particular topic.. but from my perspective, still those kinds of differing opinions should not rise to the level to consider that Saylor is a sell out regarding core bitcoin values or that he is going to sell his bitcoin merely because his portfolio went up 5x or 10x in terms of its fiat value, merely because some of his views seem to be contrary to the views of other respected bitcoiners in the space.

Tell me something that I don't already know.

 

You must be a bot ur lil selfie to believe that a bot does not know to be a bot.

I did just look up aspects of your dilemma on the DCA website, so yeah, it would take you about 7 years at $96 per week to invest $35k into bitcoin.  Historically, that would have gotten you 40 BTC, but currently, you may well not even be able to reach 0.4BTC by the time that you invest $96 per week and that 7 years plays out.. but you will have put $35k into the system.. better than not putting anything in.. and each of us have to start where we need to start in terms of attempting to accumulate a BTC stash that we believe is reasonable.. and what we need to sacrifice to reach our goals.

Fuck McDonald's but if that is the best that you can do, then you might have to get two or three jobs since they likely don't even allow you to work a full time week. If you are young you might be able to tolerate, but seems better to build skills, but if you are stuck working a variety of dead end jobs, then you may need to work 20 hours at each (60 per week) and then just UP your game in terms of investing $1k per week into bitcoin rather than $100.. but still you gotta get the rest of your shit together too.

I give up.


Start by getting a job, eXPHorizon   - like Gyrsur above.

Second try to build skills so that you can get paid more for whatever you are able to contribute.

By the way, a few days ago, I was walking my dog and some kids (probably around 10 years old) asked me for money, and I said that I did not carry money when I was walking my dog, and then just yesterday (a few days later) I saw the same 4 kids, and the one kid asked me if I had any money yet.  I actually decided to be a bit more truthful and straight-forward with the kid, and I said that it was not a very good habit for kids to be asking for money from strangers on the street.  I said that it really was not a good thing that kids should be doing, and the kid started playing with my dog, and I did not pursue the topic any further.  Not comfortable to say too much to other people's kids, especially when just interacting on the street like that.

I have doubts about whether a kid with such beginning points is going to change, and part of the problem could be that the kid has not been taught better ways and maybe even his parents are engaged in similar kinds of behaviors that don't really teach the kid that it is better to try to figure out ways to contribute and to earn money through contributing some kind of service.. so just having a few interactions with kids who have begging values is difficult to share more profound ideas and values with such kids or influence them because they might just believe that I am being mean to them by not giving them money, and sure if I knew them better I could maybe think of ways to give them a job for helping out or suggest different kinds of ways that they might earn an allowance..

It can surely take a while to instill values into folks, and if they go down the wrong course, it can be difficult to teach them to be less stupid... whether they want to learn or they just learned a lot of bad habits can be difficult to know without spending some time with them.

Part of the problem is that you are never going to know for sure if you are buying at the bottom or if the price is going to continue to go down.  For example, if a newbie nocoiner had just heard of bitcoin in January of this year and had absolutely no coins, but as we recall the BTC price went above $50k and stayed mostly above $50k for about 3.5 months, and even some people (not going to name any names) were saying that BTC prices were never going below $50k again, so even if you wanted to get some bitcoin to prepare for UP, you might be feeling to just get started otherwise you do not have any if the BTC price were to go up and $50ks happen to be the lowest that the BTC price goes.

If you are buying for the long term, you might not want to get too obsessed about whether you feel good or not in the short term.  Of course, you feel better if you buy lower, but you are not always going to know, but if the BTC price goes up in the long term, then likely after several years you keep buying you should end up in the positive.  So I surely suggest set up regular buys, and maybe small amounts such a $10 or $20 per week, and then just have an additional amount that can be used to buy more BTC on dips without acting (or even expecting) that you are going to know for sure how much of a dip is enough so maybe you end up buying at the dip below $50k at $48k, and then again at $43k and then $38k and $33k..

and you start running out of money and getting frustrated and have to wait for more money to come in, and maybe you are not really able to buy below $38k because you are running out of money and so you decide to just HODL.. Hopefully, you are not deciding to sell and buy back lower.. because that is a very dangerous strategy and frequently causes folks to end up with fewer bitcoins and lots of stress waiting for lower prices that might not happen.

It can take a while to both build up your BTC holdings and also to have them in the profits, and I personally believe that people should not be kicking themselves or trying to get short term feelings of moar better and so there can be some ways to balance the strategy and to plan ahead the various buying regularly no matter what and also buying at various points on the dip while expecting that you do not know for sure how far the dip is going to go or how long it is going to last... but if you are investing in something with strong fundamentals (only talking about bitcoin here.. not about some stupid ass shitcoin - does not matter which other shitcoin, just applies to bitcoin).

Also, in tradition assets and historically, it could have taken guys 30 years to 40 years to invest, and maybe they build a good sized nest egg, but there are no guarantees.  Sure in bitcoin there are good chances to cut that way down, such as cut the investment timeline in half, but still there are no guarantees, but as you build your wealth (and your investment portfolio) longer and longer it should both increase in value but also give you a lot more options because it is increasing in value (just might not seem so on the shorter timeframe, even 2-4 years might feel like you are not making a lot of progress... but persistence and having a solid non gambling system does tend to pay off and sometimes even way better than expected even if in the short term it is more difficult to see).

I surely do not claim to be very knowledgeable about any of the details - especially regarding who is who in the mining industry, whether we are talking about North American miners or outside of North American - even though at least the names of miners, mining pools have come up through thte years, and also in recent times, we have some interest in which mining pools are signaling taproot.

I think that part of my main point of my earlier post in sending an attachment to the Saylor tweet is because initially I had seen various posts about Musk being a liar and surely there is already a decent amount of wiffle waffling tweets to catch Musk in a multitude of lies, so it is difficult to be sympathetic for anything that Musk says.. but I had not seen any information to back up what Musk had said about the supposed meeting until I saw the Saylor tweet.

I do get some sense that Saylor tends to be much more grown up than Elon and also has built quite a bit of credibility in the bitcoin space in the past 10 months or so.. as compared to Elon dicking around in a variety of ways.. whether self-serving, distractions or attacks upon bitcoin.



I doubt that you were mining for a medal.. but I suppose that there are all kinds of reasons that miners might mine or engage in certain kinds of behaviors besides merely the profit motivations.. Surely some miners are more geographically flexible than others, and surely some miners who are NOT geographically flexible will be limited in considering what kinds of energy sources might be in their area  and then decide if that might be profitable for them to mine within the parameters of their energy source options.



Well, sure there are both free market motivations and also motivations that exist within bitcoin too.. so I suppose that if the BTC price stays low for a long time, there will be more motivations to cut energy costs - yet at the same time, if there is a large bitcoin mining surplus, the cutting of energy costs might not be as central of a short term motivator - even though more profits could be made from cutting energy costs, there are also likely circumstances in which the focus might not be as much upon cutting energy costs but instead producing a lot of hash power in order to increase the likelihood of mining blocks... so the balance is likely NOT always merely about either cutting energy costs or even concerns about from where the energy might come.

Personally, I would not go so far as to suggest that meetings have no effect or that a lot of public attention could have affects too.. whether meetings or public attention causes actual substantive focusing on getting more green, or going through the motions or attempts to seek government subsidies can be variations regarding how meetings could change focuses of individual miners or pools.



That's the way of the world and spin, no?

Spin and nonsense can both move markets and it can also change investment decisions, so there could be short term impacts, yet not really sure if king daddy gives too many shits in the long run - and even theories will differ about whether sometimes seemingly BIG events like the MTGOX crash or the Bitfinex hack or the China bans bitcoin or even the Musk energy scandal or even a combination of these has any effects on longer term BTC price movements in terms of changing the trajectory or delaying the bull run or if the trajectory is largely unchanged because if there were not one reason for a dump another reason would have come. .and sure on the margins there could be some changes, but in the long term trajectory it is sometimes difficult to measure - some people get scared into or out of positions based on such short-term dynamics too.

Personally, I believe that so many of these things do matter in various small kinds of ways, and I believe that my already existing systems of buying on the way down and selling on the way up attempt to take advantage of seemingly inevitable increased volatility created by such various events and information-spreading talking points of the day (call them FUD, call them FOMO or call them something else), and maybe every once in a while I might tweak what I was going to do on the margins here and there, but most of the time, I do not want to tweak very much, because many times these kinds of happenings end up appearing like blips on the radar when we look back at them. 

I would think that miners engage in similar thoughts in terms of whether to change their operations or to consider changing operations (buying or selling equipment), and of course, a miner is way more tied down and has more considerations than a mere simple joe blow like my lil selfie who merely considers buying and selling and which exchanges or direct trades to patronize, and maybe if I will run a node or maybe if I will change wallets to include lightning features, maybe I will talk to other peeps about bitcoin and what should I say, and silly lil things like that in which I even sometimes have technical difficulties in trying to figure out if I want to incorporate more technical changes in my life or how I might talk to other peeps who I come across in my life (if at all) about bitcoin or various happenings in the space including hearing their spin (usually wrong) about what is going on in bitcoinlandia (versus some shitcoin they have heard about as potentially important in the current events arena). 

I fixed the content of the above tweet for you.  I understand that there are no guarantees, yet probably we could take a bit of a risk and assert/proclaim that a guy with a minimum of a 6 year investment timeline into BTC has pretty damned decent chances of at least returning 1.5x.. at a minimum, and even in 6 years it is possible to go to 150x.... I do believe that we are better off to be making our predictions in 4 year increments and maybe accounting for the location of our current cycle we might add another year and a half onto the cycle.. so there might be one set of predictions that are for 5.5 years and another more bullish set of predictions for 9.5 years from now. 

So even the 5.5 year time frame might allow for 1.5x to 150x, but the 9.5 year time-frame would ramp up the numbers a bit to between 5x and 600x.. think about 600x?  that would be the high side and it would be $22.8 million dollar bitcoin, which surely does seem to be on the outer upper end of what could end up playing out.. and sure 5x would be bearish for that timeframe, but still seems somewhat realistic and even better than the up and down guarantees (close to guarantees) that could be reasonably made with any other investment.

To get a present value calculation the investment should include considerations of both the most bullish and the most bearish of scenarios that would then give a value a range with probably some bell curve characteristics that allow for more likely chances of landing somewhere in the middle.  In assigning a present value on either a 5.5 year timeline or a 9.5 year timeline to bitcoin, there might need to be some attempt at including the going to zero possibility and or the considerably losing value scenarios, and I am NOT completely going to negate the existence of either the going to zero scenario or the considerably losing value scenarios, but such non-appreciation of value scenarios, in the case of bitcoin are becoming less and less likely with the passage of time and really would end up contributing very small value to the overall perspective of bringing down the extensiveness of the upside scenarios rather than actually having the lower end including in a present value range that would likely stay positive with 1.5x being the low end of a 5.5 year time frame and 5x being the lower end of a 9.5 year timeframe, and I don't know where you can get such bullish numbers from any other investment.. especially since so many have dollar corruption aspects within their ongoing artificial inflation, too.


I think that we no longer need to be skeptical of the truth of Elon having had participated in some kind of discussions with some miners in very recent times, yet for me it is very interesting that Elon pretty much was able to get his ass saved by Saylor.

https://twitter.com/michael_saylor/status/1396915801492439044

The tweet:
>>>>
"Michael Saylor
@michael_saylor

Yesterday I was pleased to host a meeting between @elonmusk & the leading Bitcoin miners in North America.  The miners have agreed to form the Bitcoin Mining Council to promote energy usage transparency & accelerate sustainability initiatives worldwide."

<<<<<<<<<<<<


I am not 100% surprised that rich fucktwats can get their asses saved over and over again, even though sometimes narcissistic attention whore fucks like Elon will still tend to both burn bridges and ongoingly engage in outrageous attention whoring behaviors because guys like that have a kind of disease, but maybe at least some of us have seen him show his true colors with the latest opportunistic bullshit that he attempted to play in his favor and likely had it explode a wee bit in his face.

TLDR... stop being so god damned ridiculously dogmatic about what peeps should or should not do with their BTC.  Peeps can do whatever the fuck they want, especially if they have already met their personal goals and they are able to continue to meet, maintain or even exceed their personal goals in a variety of ways that are of their own choosing, including if they want to sell some portion (even all) of their BTC.

Of course, I already gave a pretty damned specific and even realistic hypothetical example (not necessarily based on any particular known person), of a person has a goal of achieving $1 million  by 2021, but then realizes that he actually would be better served with $2million by that same date, but then when he also realizes that his BTC has become worth $12 million.  Accordingly, he should not feel any inhibitions in shaving off some BTC because he has $10million excess of his own personal financial wealth accumulation goals.

Sure, maybe this particular peep could be well served by increasing his personal financial goals, or maybe he can consider that he should have started shaving off profits way before having had reached $12 million... whatever he decides to do, then he has choice and discretion in planning or replanning that or even concluding that he has achieved way in excess of his own personal financial wealth accumulation goals. 

Further, what happens if his wealth accumulation goal is $2 million, and then he just let's his $12million continue to accumulate value and he does not shave off any BTC when his BTC stash has already reached $12million, and then BTC does another 8x from $40k per coin to $320k per coin, then all of a sudden he has $96million and his personal financial accumulation goal has not come off of $2 million? 

Of course it is not a bad problem to have, and it is not even unrealistic that this kind of a "problem" could end up happening to some one because I already explained a pretty damned possible circumstances in reaching such a $12million accumulation status at today's prices.. and many of us realize that it is not unrealistic for BTC to go through another 8x price appreciation from here.

Surely, I can think of all kinds of circumstances that guys are still struggling to get to fuck you status, even if they have been in BTC accumulation for a decent amount of time, but there are surely circumstances in which guys could well end up accumulating way more wealth than they are able to spend and it makes a lot of sense for them to shave some off... and maybe their "problem" just keeps getting worse at a certain point, especially if they do not shave off, and not everyone wants to accumulate wealth beyond their goals.. maybe they can tolerate another 3x or 5x or even 10x to have a bit more cushion, but at some point, if they are 48x beyond the top of what they thought that they needed, they have to start to become way more creative (and possibly beyond their own competency) in trying to spend their money in ways that are suitable to their own personality traits and preferences.



You are going to be grasping at straws if you merely take a snapshot of where these assets are at currently.

In 2015, bitcoin was struggling to stay above a $5 billion market cap.  In other words bitcoin has between 160x and 240x more value than it had in 2015 (depending on which location you are locking in).

You think that bitcoin is going to stagnate? You think that bitcoin cannot do another 20x?

Sure not everyone can appreciate the amount of value that bitcoin has gained, and they conclude that bitcoin is going to be topping out soon, when I believe that it has largely already beaten gold and silver and other various PMs... Sure it could take some time for some of the measurements to feel more comfortable, but bitcoin can already do way more than those PMs in terms of sovereignty over value so long as a person has connections on both ends, he can move value anywhere in the world, and of course, more and more peeps are willing to accept bitcoin and even if they are moving a small amount of value, such as a few million dollars in value, they may well even be able to do that without anyone even really noticing... try doing that with gold/silver pms, and those private planes even get searched sometimes.



Surely hardly any of this is tangible for a lot of normies, and even in the bitcoin learning space some of us are still trying to figure this stuff out.. including getting exposed to information and knowledge that we thought that we would never have any interest.. but then holding bitcoin sometimes will cause exposure to a variety of macro economic concepts that help to establish at least part of the the bitcoin investment thesis.


I will try NOT to cry.. even though sometimes I even get mad, angry and frustrated at "good buds" in these here parts.. and I am sure that the feeling is mutual.. because I have been told so, several times.

It's exactly true that any of us could have gone down the road of selling too many of our coins at strange times and then end up locking our lil selfies into a position that thereafter causes us to become bitter and even lacking in abilities to suck up certain losses or even to buy back in later at BTC prices that are higher than our sales price.

Surely, I am not suggesting that there is ONLY one way to fuck up your level of bitcoin holdings, but we do tend to see some patterns that include both the kinds of people who never get involved in setting up a bitcoin account or a wallet and the kinds of people who once got involved but end up betting too high on down at the wrong time and then become bitter or disgruntled.

I can empathize a bit more with the person who never set up accounts because I meet a whole hell of a lot of them, and I do understand that sometimes it can be a whole hell of a lot of work to just get started.. even if it is a mere $100 per month (or even lower)...but once getting in a groove.. even the most modest of incomes, cashflow and savings can end up really complementing overall investment by having had gotten started..

Perhaps another problem is that there are so many people who fail/refuse to establish and to maintain any kind of investment, so as soon as they start to develop an investment and then it increases in value, they just cannot resist tapping into it.  "I'll just remove a bit for x, y or z," so it seems to be so true that so many peeps have such difficulties just creating a kind of separate account that they keep separate and never tap into.  Part of the solution could be to ONLY put $10 per month in, rather than putting in $100, so there is not enough of a cash reserve on hand to deal with a variety of expenses as they come in.

The problem that I am describing is likely the very first 5 years or so of any investment to get it in place and to keep it growing.  Once the investment has reached a certain higher level of maturity and profitability, then it may well not be as BIG of a deal to be tapping into it from time to time.. especially if no longer in a kind of phase that is emphasizing accumulation.

So, a question that each of us needs to ask remains how much to be tapping into such bitcoin fund once we established it, and question ourselves in regards to are we in an accumulation phase, maintenance phase or a liquidation phase.  Surely, those phases are not completely absolute and a 1% to 5% withdrawal for BIG projects should not make big differences in the whole scheme of things, either but there may be a bit of emphasis of one or another of the phases that should inform the extent to which contributions are continuing to be made into BTC or whether liquidations can (should) be liberally taking place too. 

Ok.  So you got about $11,000 from your 0.2BTC.  Presumably most of that was profits, and there may not have been any kind of desperation in regards to that $11k, since you forgot about it for a few years.. yet you did not provide enough details for us here, to understand a lot of your specifics besides your gloating over something approaching a $11k profit... or a windfall.

You know I had a pretty close acquaintance gloat over selling around 0.5 bitcoin around $3,800-ish ($1,900) in 2017, and that bitcoin had been acquired below $700 ($350)  in 2016 (so a profit of around 5x or $1,550).  That person has been expressing quite a few regrets over the years.. not only in terms of how he dealt with that particular transaction, but how that transaction had affected his whole perspective on bitcoin and how he might have been better incorporate bitcoin as an overall better strategy into his whole wealth management system (that he does rely quite a bit on "professional" advice for concluding regarding certain balances that he decides to reach).

At this time, with the BTC price hovering around $38k, you might feel like a genius because you currently are UP in your sale, yet you could buy back at this lower price.  

Alternatively, you could wait for a further dip and buy back (that is if a further dip happens), or you could buy back part of the BTC that you had sold at current prices or some variation of current prices or you could just remain a nocoiner from here on out and gloat during this window period in which you are appearing to be in profits relative to fiat.

You are the best person to judge your own circumstances, and guys in this thread are going to really vary too in terms of how they would approach such a matter about which you are currently gloating if they were faced with the same facts, and I would suspect a minority of the regulars would feel comfortable keeping that value completely in dollars given recent BTC price actions, but there are likely a few of us who would be o.k. with that.. not this cat.. but hey.. just saying.. ..

Actually, some active guys in this thread can be seen professing that BTC prices are going lower than the current $30k bottom.. and perhaps at some point they will be changing their tunes, too.. because some guys like to talk their book too, even though they act like they are not talking their book.

Also, sometimes it can be difficult to know if some guys are putting their money where there mouth is or if they are just making proclamations in a public thread in order to entice others into actions that they are not taking themselves.. not sure how effective that would be, but some guys surely seem to engage in that kind of behaviors.  

Surely, not even I expect each of us to exactly be describing his position before some aspects of it executes.  Even in my case, I generally have a kind of systematic practice that I tend to follow and I am pretty open about it, but I do not tend to give the exact numbers very often, but sometimes even something approaching exact numbers or percentages might be relevant to certain kinds of discussions.  

Nonetheless, in recent months, I have created some variations in my systematic practices because I am attempting to achieve some kinds of real world targets, and I am disinclined to share too many of the particulars until I am mostly finished with the executions to achieve the goals that I am attempting to achieve.  If whatever I did is seeming kind of relevant, I will probably share aspects of what I did once I get closer to achieving my goals, and I am not even so naive as to presume that I might not have to adjust aspects of my tactic along the way too, especially in the event that my targets are not met in within my real world timeline expectations.  I have had to do this a few times in the past, and there can both be uncomfortable periods, but also some unwillingness (at least from yours truly) to share details until the whole situation has kind of sorted itself out and reached a kind of resolution, at least from my perspective.

I like it, except surely your failure/refusal to disclaim with #nohomo must have been an oversight.   

By the way, you know that we are on a public thread, so whether you said it or not, good enough for govt. work. woops.


Well.. sounds a bit premature to be reaching such a conclusion.

Like I already mentioned, if various PMs are being used outside of storage of value or even financial instruments, then bitcoin (no need to talk about other cryptos in this thread because they are not important and they are not relevant) would not be in a position to replace those other kinds of values whether it be industrial use or jewlery or things like that.



I am  glad that you got that off your chest.

Can we go back to being buddies, now?



Sounds like a premature assessment to me.

I would suggest if whatever PMs are not being used as a store of value or financial instrument, then bitcoin would not have too much affect on their prices, but we know that various PMs are being used as financial instruments and stores of value.. so sounds to me that you are wrong if you believe that bitcoin superiority in that regard is NOT going to have any effect on PMs being used in similar ways but inferiorities... .. believe what you will in that regard.. time will continue to tell.. just as it already has told part of the story, but you seem to be wanting to see what you want, apart from the seeming relevant facts.


Great challenge proudhon...

I like your transition into something a bit more funzies... better than your usual repetitive and boring Debbie DOWNsies proclamations.

Ready, set, go.

.5 days down, 9.5 days to go.


Philip 1957 loves this kind of counting.

That's what I have been talking about for years.  Of course, you should not be cashing out too much, but you should be attempting to figure out various price points along the way.. whether that is 2x, 5x, 10x, 50x or whatever.  Something.


This post demonstrates the need to tweak from time to time and to reconsider and try to find some kind of balance that feels comfortable and is acceptable.

Of course, finding a perfect balance might not be exactly possible, and people will also have tendencies to second guess themselves after seeing how the market subsequently moved.. but still even if we attempt to learn from that, many of us realize that we should be attempting to not kick ourselves over such prior decisions (and actions) and thereafter see if in the present time there might be ways that we can deal with what we got and even sometimes make up for some of our having had overdone it in the past in one direction or another.

Doesn't say their buy price though?  Did they really "buy the dip"  and probably there was a bit of spreading of such buying, especially since from the blurb it appears that such authorized buying came from the funds of 12 of their investors.


A lot of the questions regarding who will buy at higher prices gets answered with the passage of time.

In 2012 when BTC prices were below $10, there were a lot of folks asking who would be buying above $100.. but subsequently people did buy above $100.. and lots of peeps did buy.

In 2015 when BTC prices were around $250, there were a lot of folks asking who would be buying above $3,000.. but subsequently people did buy above $3,000.. and lots of peeps did buy.

In 2019 when BTC prices were below $6,000, there were a lot of folks asking who would be buying above $20,000.. but subsequently people did buy above $20,000.. and lots of peeps did buy.

So, you can draw the line where ever you want, newbie... and as the BTC prices rise, the schelling point also rises.. and the higher prices become the new normal, even though some disgruntled people do get caught in the past regarding peeps who had been able to buy their bitcoin at lower prices, but if you cannot get over your disgruntledness, you will likely either remain a no coiner or a person who is way too underinvested in bitcoin because you are waiting for lower prices that are no longer available once getting into longer periods of adoption and comfort into this thingie that continues to both increase in value, but also more and more normies increasingly recognize the increasing value that it has (except the caught in the past delusional losers.. don't be more of a looser than you already are, lucky enough).


Snap out of it lucky.  you resentful, bitter and jealous retard.   

I would not want to get too pie in the sky in my speculation about what could happen.. upside versus downside, yet frequently if there is a decently sized correction, then it could take a bit of time (a few weeks for the buy pressure to begin to build and then to create a lot of UPside movements).

I am thinking that the April to June 2019 uptrend of 3.5x during that short period was blamed on the plustoken, but who really knows?.. sometimes we can end up experiencing very considerable upside movements in a very short period of time.. whether 3.5x is possible at these prices or a mere 2x would be possible remains to be seen..., and of course, there are no guarantees either, including that more correction could be on its way.. .. sorry to be all over the place in terms of my short-term thinking, but I doubt that we can have confidence in either direction, and sure a reverse could create upside momentum.. but surely not guaranteed. 

Inspite of some of the concerns that the short term has downward momentum, I do personally believe that there are considerable difficulties to continue such DOWNity momentum in a bull market, and merely wishing away the bull market has its own problems - including questions about whether more froth needs to be removed from shitcoins and several of which (too many? who knows?) are seeming to bounce pretty well too in this latest bounce of the past 24 hours.

Seems a bit of a strong statement to presume that guys need to be focusing ONLY on bitcoin when not only do we live in a fiat dominated world, there are all kinds of timeline and individualistic considerations, too.

Accordingly, there are ways to appreciate bitcoin as the best investment that the world has ever seen but still to balance that investment - so perhaps how any person might consider this matter might have to do with how much of their wealth might already be tied up into bitcoin and even own personal circumstances.  Think about the matter.  Sure, you may need or want other things based on your own personal circumstances, but don't be fucking judging other peeps because they draw lines in differing places.

Let's create a hypothetical that can be tweaked.. but here goes:

Let's say a person had around $500k in wealth in 2012, and that person had a goal to minimally try to achieve a million in 8-10 years which may not be total fuck you status but would put such person in a pretty decent financial position.  Such person heard about bitcoin around that time, so decided to diversify some of his investment into bitcoin.. just to see how it plays out.. but did not want to risk too much on such pie in the sky bitcoin thingie.. so decides to put 1% of his wealth into bitcoin, which would be about $5,000.    By the time, he made all the transactions and paid the fees, the $5k ends up buying him 500BTC (at $10 per BTC).  

Such person considers that he is going to attempt to be mostly hands off about his BTC investment but to trade it a bit and to maybe try to make some additional money that way, too.  Between 2012 and 2015, he notices that his traditional investment had gone up to about $700k and he was able to fold some of his trades into dollars and continue to stack dollar investments, but his BTC investment had gone up to about $250 per coin, but his stash of BTC had gone down to 250 BTC.  His 25x which would have been about $62,500  ($250 x 250BTC).  

He recognized that his trading BTC was not really increasing his BTC stash.. and even though he was able to fold some of his BTC profits into dollars, he was going to stop fucking around with his BTC.  He noticed that his BTC was in a kind of price trough for most of 2015.. so he decides to put another $12,500 into BTC.. so instead of having 250 BTC he would up his BTC to 300 BTC and mostly just leave his BTC at 300 for the coming years and just see how the whole thing plays out.  

In some sense he feels that he has overinvested in BTC because by 2015 the BTC price has been down for about a year, but he would just let the matter sit for a few years and see how it plays out.  

By the time, 2021 comes along, maybe his traditional investment had ended up performing pretty well and it is at around $1million (maybe even more than a million and even approaching his earlier fuck you status levels), but he sees with inflation and several of the problems in the world including the future world, he has to move his fuck you status up to minimally starting at $2million.. just to have a wee bit more cushion to alleviate some of his stress.. and provide a bit more financial comfort.  

So, if he is just looking at his traditional investments, they are not quite helping him to get over his fuck you status threshold, even though he feels that those traditional investments are doing decently well in the whole scheme of things.  He looks at his BTC, and sees that they are valued at around $12million (300 BTC x $40k).   Sure there are ways that the guy can recognize potential downside of the BTC, but largely his BTC has become a pretty damned large percentage of his overall wealth, and it is really 12x the size of his wealth that is fitting in the traditional categories, even though he did not invest much more than 1% of his wealth into BTC it has magnified to becoming 12x of all his wealth in the other traditional categories combined.

Accordingly, why lecture guys.. legendary or not about selling some of their BTC?

Personally, I see no fucking problem for a guy in such a scenario (which is actually more than reasonable to have had happened to some OGs in this thread - not saying that anything like that happened to yours truly, but I can imagine it happening to some peeps).  Accordingly, for a guy like that to cash out some of his BTC and to live a bit instead of focusing on BTC ONLY blah blah blah seems to be a good and valuable thing and a real world thing.. rather than pie in the sky ideology about some nonsense detachment from a real world in which you can get a lot of satisfaction by purchasing goods and services in stinky dollars.  They might not hold their value, but you can still get things through such dollars.  

Sure, maybe the guy could have just gotten stuck with a much smaller stack of 100BTC, but he would still have a similar situation to ONLY have $4million in BTC value at this time.. but in our actual hypothetical, at this time, he has 300 BTC and he has $12million in value...,

In any event, there should be no problem for him to shave a wee bit of BTC off and whether he shaves 10 BTC off at $30k ($300k) or he shaves 10 BTC off at $60k ($600k), he might give few shits either way...

He could also shave off 30BTC and have few problems with reducing his BTC stash by 10% - that would be 30 BTC off at $30k ($900k) or he shaves 30 BTC off at $60k ($1.8 million).

Even after those shavings, this guy still has built a good investment in BTC, and he remains pretty damned comfortable in his traditional investments too, but his BTC has way out performed his traditional investments and even if he shaves off a decent quantity of BTC at amounts within his discretion and based on his own circumstances including considering his cashflow, timeline, risk tolerance and perhaps a few other factors, even with such shaveings of profits, he still would have plenty of allocations in both BTC and in traditional assets.. and maybe he would be able to enjoy some hookers, lambos, blow and maybe even a nice place by the lake or on a ranch without even hardly putting much of a dent in the bank..

Of course, some goods and services are going to hold their value better than other goods and services, and so there will be some discretion in terms of does he feel some desires that his wealth continues to grow (does he have enough) or does he want to consume a bit.. which may deplete both his current wealth status or his potential for future growth, but he might give few shits.. especially if he had a goal of having $2million in personal wealth by 2021, but he currently has $12million or so just in his BTC.. so, just in his BTC there is $10million more than he feels that he needs (again, his discretion regarding how much he believes he needs presently or into the future).

Does my hypothetical seem pie in the sky or not?  Of course, you can reduce the quantities, or you can reduce the timeline, so maybe there are quite a few guys who have a way shorter time that they have been in BTC, and maybe they have ONLY gotten in BTC since 2016, 2017 or some other shorter time period, so they have not been able to build up so much BTC, but they could still have some similar potentiality in terms of the future growth of their BTC, and once they get beyond their personal targets whether that be $2million in value or otherwise, then of course they can still continue to hold BTC, but they might want to shave off some profits too... and how the fuck are they going to value their wealth?  you think dollars have no meaning, then move to hookers, lambos, blow and property by lakes/ranches.  But dollars are still going to get you those things and even if BTC is likely to appreciate more than those other things, I see no reason not to enjoy some or all of those other things, if they give you pleasure on a personal level or whatever.