So if you already pretty much have everything in place, but you believe that there might be a 20-30% chance that price could drop another 30% then you might have to allocate a small amount to that rather than totally buying at the current prices, which is making you happy except for  the relatively small area that you are not prepared....

So since you mentioned getting .66BTC.. that would be around $23k.  So let's say that instead of spending $23k at current prices, you spend $18k at current prices, and then you set up buy orders with the remaining $5k at various locations that would make you feel satisfied on outlier scenarios.

Sure, I might be suggesting to hold back too much, so maybe you might only hold back $2k to $3k for such additional down scenarios because you are largely already inclined to put it all in at this price - but you do have some concerns about possible further drops. 

Of course, if the BTC price does not go down, and instead it shoots up $10k from here then you can plan for those kinds of scenarios too...even if you would end up getting less BTC in such a scenario that BTC shot up $10k. 

No matter what, there is no easy answer, but you can get some ideas regarding tweaking the proportions and maybe NOT feeling great in any of the scenarios that you think through, but in the end, you realize that you did the best that you could at the time that you set the orders including making some contingency plans to revisit the matter under the actual scenarios that end up playing out.   

By the way, in around 2016, I used to tweak my set ups a lot more along the way, but with the passage of time, I learned that I did NOT really like tweaking so often because it drains me, so I would usually just set it and then just let it play out and usually I do have some retweaking that is just part of the ongoing plan anyhow, so if sell orders get filled I end up manually setting buy orders after the sell orders fill and the opposite is true if the buy orders fill then I end up manually setting up sell orders after the buy orders fill.... so sometimes the retweaking can just be built into the system, so that if just one or two buy orders fill, then that would cause me to tweak differently as compared with 5-6 buy orders or even more getting filled (vice versa is true, also).. So sometimes, I tell myself that I am not even going to think about the matter until after orders get filled in one direction or the other...and sometimes I will put them far apart on purpose, so that I do not have to think about it unless the BTC price moves even further in one direction or another in order to force me to detach myself from any noise in between the set levels.

Sorry that it can be a bit long and confusing, but I also might have additional great cushions that I put in place if I accidentally make a mistake in one direction or another or for example, if I am setting an order to buy at $32k, for example, but I accidentally end up buying at market price ($36k), then it might cause me to say fuck it and I don't set anymore buy orders unless the BTC price goes down to $30k, but it might cause me to set an additional sell order at $40k rather than $42k and then once the sell order executes at $40k, then i can set the buy order at $32k.. and of course, the combination of the orders can prioritize stacking more sats or stacking more fiat depending on my then inclinations... and I understand at this time, you aesma, are more inclined to be stacking sats rather than stacking fiat because you had felt that you had overdone your fiat stacking.. so you want to move the needle back in the other direction towards having a bit higher allocation in sats... .so in that sense, maybe all of your sell orders end up being very small but your buy orders tend to use higher portions of your fiat that is generated  and sometimes if you are not paying attention, then you can start to become way more imbalanced on the opposite side as you had been earlier.. so then all of a sudden you feel that you have too many sats and not enough dollars.... so you gotta start to shave those sats off, once you reach that point.

I kind of learned my lesson about that in late 2017, so I had been buying back way too many sats during the drop from $20k, so after that time, I learned to spread my buy back orders a bit larger quantities so that I feel more comfortable, and less likely to run out of money if the BTC price continues to drop.  In the end, the important thing is that I feel better, and I give no shits about how some other guy in this thread would feel about if I have too many sats or too many dollars.

Just like a few months ago, I had buy orders going down to $9k, and I felt good about that.  I had some guys here say that I should cancel those orders, and I did not.  However, I had some changes in my circumstances that did cause me to cancel my orders between about $9k and $13k, and it is likely that I will be cancelling some more buy orders between $13k and higher numbers that are yet to be determined.. maybe even up; to $20k depending on both how near term prices move but also in terms of how much money I am going to need for some projects that I am figuring out the details including some bills coming due in the near future.

I usually plug any new cash into three categories:  Lump sum, DCA and buying on dips.  So you have to decide how to apportion the amount that you have.  Sounds like you already have some allocated to buying on dips, so you would have to decide if you want to plug more into that category and the other two categories. 

The total of what you do has a lot to do with your particulars and it is NOT only about your views about BTC as compared with other assets, you consider your ongoing cashflow, your other investments, your timeline, your risk tolerance and your time, skills and abilities to tweak along the way.

Of course, opinions are all over the place in regards to whether the bottom is already in or the top is already in and so many other variations, so how you invest can really become a very close impression of yourself and your views and how much you might hedge for a variety of possibilities while still being happy if the price moved against your hedging in one direction or another, so in the end, if you set up your amounts correctly, then you should not really have BIG concerns about if the BTC price goes up or down because you are taking advantage of its movement no matter what.

For some reason, I did not let the so far 53% drop in BTC's price get to me in an emotional way.. so you are seeming to have some disproportional issues  with that.. as if you are a newbie rather than someone who has had time to accumulate a decent BTC stash.

Of course, I am having some difficulties with some of the exact calculations, but for ballpark purposes some of us might be able to concede that there may have been BTC bought and sold at a variety of prices over the years, and let's just presume that various mistakes were made along the way, too.

So even if some of us may have been in BTC for about 7.5 years (and based on your forum registration date, maybe you and I would be in a very similar position somac?), so maybe we could even concede that our average price per BTC was around $1k per BTC.  Wouldn't that be more or less fair? 

Much easier to calculate impacts of price changes with a round number, no?  So if our portfolio dropped from about 65x profits down to about 30x profits, I am having some troubles feeling the supposed trauma of such a BTC price drop. 

Even though I was buying BTC through 2013, 2014 and 2015, I felt a bit more uneasiness for that period, but even if we assume a similar level of costs per BTC, in 2017/2018 we had a price drop from 20x to 3x, so for some reason with the more passage of time, there seems to be some decent cushion in terms of the amount of the fall in the BTC price.

I am not going to even say that I have one BTC, but let’s presume someone might have 100BTC, and so a drop from $65k to $30k would be a drop from $6.5million in value to $3million in value.. but it is still better than a drop from $2million to $300k, no?  So if you have been able to hang onto some of your BTC over the years, then there should be a bit of a cushion there?

Again, for some reason, I am not feeling the level of panic that you seem to be feeling, somac.


   

I suppose that I do not understand, and probably I don’t care if you and maybe a few others might not like me, but I am not going to let it ruin my day.. or even to get all upset in my posts.



I presume that you are referring to limitations in my abilities to manage my finances rather than in my ability to get along with others?  You are a bit convoluted here, but I doubt that I was even panicking as close to you in the past few days, which seems to be a sign that I have good financial and psychological management relative to you.. no?. 

Furthermore, I do not presume that I know better than everyone else, because I believe that each person should be attempting to tailor his approach to his own situation including his own limitations and then figure out the extent to which (if at all) he will want to interact with any other member(s) in this thread.   

 It’s hard for me to see that there might be some kind of other important or material problem with my post style or content.. and seems a bit distracting to even consider the matter.  For example, I recall in 2016-ish or maybe it was 2017, there were a lot of guys in the thread telling me how much they hate me on a regular basis and how the thread would be better without my participation blah blah blah.

I have continued to participate… sucks to be you guys forced to read my stuff, and the thread seems to be going just fine, and I hardly even modified the extent of my attempts at contributions to the thread, even though some peeps have said that they do not like me on a regular basis.. hahahahaha

In other words.. hardly news to me, somac, so I am having difficulties understanding the point that you are wanting to make, except wanting to let me know something that I already know – not to get too self-absorbed with baloney talk about how much my content or I may or may not be liked… a BIG whooptie-doo, no?

Funny how you have been acting like such a whinny little bitch in recent days in spite of your supposedly being able to kill it with sophisticated financial instruments in recent times, too.

Also, it seems to me to be much better to be attempting to describe BTC portfolio strategies that are replicable, and I tend to do that on an ongoing and regular basis..

Of course, any guy should be attempting to start with basics and that is getting their financial shit together so that they are not whining like a little girl every time the BTC price moves.. because if guys get their financial shit together, then they should already be prepared both financially and psychologically for BTC price moves in any direction and even extreme moves. 

Seems to me that if a guy is not psychologically prepared for BTC price moves and he is whining like a little girl, (we already have decent ideas that they can and tend to be extreme from time to time), then there is likely something wrong with strategy in a financial way too.. so basics (finance 101 - which seem to be a challenge to you somac) would be to attempt as best as possible to align finances with psychology.

In response to your  other convoluted and potentially contradicting nonsense, there seems to be no real need for me to go into detail about what has been so fucking awesome about my own BTC system, even though I have largely been in BTC about 7.5 years now, so the first years were building foundations but already having a decent amount of capital that I could inject and allocate into bitcoin.

On the other hand, we know that if guys are starting investing from scratch, then they might have to exercise a considerable amount of patience to even build up their investment portfolio to 1 BTC.. not that I am even conceding to have 1 BTC since that is also considered to be a lot these days, so beginners likely are going to have lower targets before they might start feeling that they can go baller with any of their stash... which surely, I tend to be a person who wants to recommend means that are fairly conservative and straightforward rathe than the employment of complicated and convoluted investment mechanisms... which may well screw peeps out of whatever investment portfolio that they may have, as you seem to suggest to be a potential risk somac (besides your bragging about it).

Probably for more than half of the over 7 years of my participation on this forum, I have been suggesting that for fuck you status, there are probably a lot of guys who would need at least $1million in capital, so that would be presuming a $3,333 per month as passive income as a starting point for their cashflow.. of course, some guys might be able to get by for less or might need more, but it had seemed that $1million had been a good starting point.  

Sorry to say that in recent times, I have felt inclined to become more elitist and to double the starting out for fuck you status amount in the past year or two - and probably especially I felt more compelled to double the starting out amount after some of the shocking aspects of the early 2020 money printer go burr situation.. so that would mean $2million in capital which would be presumed to be able to sustain about $6,666 per month in passive income.

I still appreciate that there are going to be quite a few areas in the world that such a large income would be a bit of an overkill as a starting out fuck you status point - meaning that the starting point could be quite a bit lower than $6,666 per month.

In any event, you (somac) seem to be suggesting that you are getting about $6,000 per month  ($15k/2.5) in passive income by merely having 1 BTC as your capital used to earn that. which surely would have fluctuated in value between about $30k and $64,895k, but seems way too good to be true in terms of either being able to earn that much from so little and/or.. to be sustainable?  

Even considering BTC values at $60k, to be able to earn 100% the value of the BTC in 10 months, seems a wee bit too good to be true... Are you selling something or smoking something?

Hahahaha

Ok... Fair enough.

Why was I trying to read more bitter in you than actually exists?

Maybe because you have been expressing a lots of emotions in recent times?  Perhaps?  Perhaps?



Hahahaha

nice to see some emotionalism from you dude..  hahahaha

You are coming off as quite the skeptic in regards to the stories of some peeps, here.   


There you go with your imagination again, and might you not consider possible errors that might exist to extrapolate how online personas may well differ from real life ones?

Go on, keep imagining.


Are you giving some kind of advices regarding my participation being premature?  or are you trying to suggest that you know something important with which I am interfering?

For some reason, I am having troubles taking your vices seriously... but hey, did I ask for advices?  I cannot recall doing that.

Deep down on the inside.

all of us bbbbeeeeeeeeeeee bots.


bots unite!!!!!!!!!!



FTFY

 


If there was already momentum from a few days ago, then there is more than enough reason to attempt to test support again.. whether gets successfully low or not is likely a bit of another story.


Don't mischaracterize me, you diptwat.

You should realize by now that I hardly ever have an opinion beyond 50/50 - but I do frequently criticize others who are seeming to make claims that attribute way more certainty than they deserve, including your premature proclamation of resistance at $42k/$43k.



There was?  or was there just not enough buying support?  Same thing?


Ok.  I would like to blame Biodom for ongoingly making premature and strong proclamations that are likely NOT true... or at best are a wee bit more than 50/50.




Who?  You mean if I say that you are full of shit, and then the price ends up going in your direction, so you proclaim victory?  That's what you be talking about willis?



 


You are reading a lot into this buddy.
 

Maybe you should start trading, since you seem to be such a smartie pants?  put some money where ur lil mousie is.  That might help some of your analysis or lack thereof.


Goes to show you that scary can be relative.

I concede, in part.   

Accept your point about a lot of possibilities, especially we are considering the relatively near term future, whether attempting to project out 3 days or 9 months into the near term future.. hahahaha


Well.. yes many of us are HODLers and accumulators.. don't forget the accumulation part unless you ran out of cash.. then you might well have to HODL until the next cash comes to you.


I doubt that it matters too much to get caught up in some of the green or not aspects of mining nonsense... seems to largely just be playing into mostly wrong talking points in regards to what is going on in bitcoin and peeps who have various seemingly disingenuine motives to be naysaying on bitcoin mining or whatever negative hook that they might be able to achieve.. at least in the short term.

Bitcoin miners are going to go where it works for them for a variety of reasons, and when the BTC price is booming they probably give too few shits about how much energy they are consuming.. but if they are seeing the landscape of competitive mining and the UPs and downs of profit margins, many times they are going to be advantaged to seek the cheapest energy that they can find, perhaps frequently even closer to the source which may even be using some surplus energy that might not have otherwise been used (which also causes such energy to be cheaper), but surely miners have to be careful too because there would be costs or potential costs if operating in locations that are hostile - so it might not be worth it to miners (even if the energy is cheap) to locate in areas that might be hostile to them.


Of course, anything is possible you diptwat, but does not mean that we should get obsessed with such nonsense especially after we already had a 53% correction in which further correction may or may not happen.

Sure, prepare for either scenario, but getting overly focused on DOWNity seems a bit more of a fantasy rather than realistically pee paring ur lil selfie for all possibilities.

If you are supposedly so goddamned pee pared for UPpity, why you spend so much time, on an ongoing basis, giving attention to DOWNity scenarios that may or may not happen?  Are you expecting that others need to do something to give credit of more than 50/50 to such a scenario that might even be less than 50/50 even though you want to stress it?



Hm?  So we could go to $25k.., but then again we might not.. but if we do go to $25k, which seems unlikely, we better get ready to prepare our lil selfies to get MOAR scared, just in case.  That's the Biodom punchline at this time?    

Sounds like overly focused on DOWNity nonsense to me.    


Ok... We are supposed to be scared of that?

Sure, it no does not look like an ant move, but still.. not getting scary enough yet.  We needs MOAR scary.. Please bring some more scary because the scary so far no does not seem to be working enuff.

I doubt king daddy gives any shits, even if you might be trying to make some kind of connection in regards to what should be considered as largely noises.


Seems like a BIG so fucking what, even if you are trying to be somewhat dramatic about it.

We need lots of drama and scary shit to be able to attempt to shake some of the weak hands that do not know that they are weak hands, yet.  So, sure is there going to be anymore shaking or success at shaking, time will tell. 

The best time to attempt to attack some more by either throwing more coins at the issue and/or throwing more FUD at the issue while the chips are down... so a question still remains if any more success can be achieved in further attempts for DOWNity or no...   

Weekends can be a good/opportune time for throwing more coins at this issue.,. but do dee bears gots any more coins left that they are ready, willing and able to throw at their DOWNity preferences?  and what are dee odds for success?

Popcorns anyone?


There are a few other differences too, but hey, Biodom, if you are 'specting more DOWNity or even flat from here that drags out 2-6 months, you might be overplaying your lack of bullishness a wee bit.  But who am I to say?  You surely have your right to either wait for more DOWNity or fail refuse to adequately pee pare ur lil selfie for UPpity because you are expecting either flat or down.. Hopefully not to many udder peeps rely on your projections for adequately making their own UPpity preparations.

For sure, I am NOT proclaiming that Saylor is equal to normies, and so merely based on his billionnaire (rockstar) status and his employment of a variety of experts in the BTC space, he is likely getting access to a variety of decent and insider information, but as far as the BTC price market and when the correction is going to stop, no body knows that.  They might know about when certain insider things might happen that we regular peeps do not know about beyond conjecture, but still there is absolutely no evidence that Saylor is playing around with his stash in terms of trading it and his outward actions seem to largely be what he is doing.. which is just ongoingly accumulating BTC.


I doubt that any CEO of a public company is going to want to tie their hands - so they both create instruments that give them as much flexibility as they can reasonably get away with and they also make statements to assure that they will do whatever it takes to preserve shareholder value etc. etc. etc.  Sure, diptwat Elon, seems to be somewhat of an exception to be making statements that seem to show that he is reckless as fuck and doesn't give any shit about shareholder value.. or whatever the Elon statements were meant to accomplish.

I am just repeating myself to assert once again that even if the financial instruments and even the words of Saylor is to assert that he has flexibility to do whatever the fuck he wants in terms of selling, he has no intention to sell for a long time (yeah, I don't believe that 100 year bullshit, because Saylor will be lucky to have competency for another 40 years - suggesting that if he lives as long (and is active in the space) for as long as Buffet or Munger.


I agree with you about their having had bought BTC to hedge for macro-economic risks, but something seems wrong with your so easily crossing into the territory (or mindset) or Microstrategies selling on the way down.. in the event that BTC were to go down to those levels.. which also seems to be a pretty BIG assumption.

I will kind of agree with you about a kind of presumption that Microstrategies may have overdone themselves in terms of the quantity of their BTC buys, but they surely seem to have the cashflows to service the debts that they created for themselves and also they just moved cash reserves into bitcoin - sure maybe a bit more than prudent, but those cash reserves are largely continuing to hold value - so sure once the BTC price goes below $24k, then they are in the negative, but I doubt that that would justify selling at a loss rather than hanging onto bitcoin for at least a few years .. and sure if after a few years (maybe even 5-6 years?) bitcoin is not holding its value relative to the dollar, then they may have to well rethink their investment thesis - NOT that they even have to wait 5-6 years to reassess their BTC investment thesis, but I doubt that they are questioning themselves on a regular basis, merely because BTC prices are currently correcting, as you seem to be necessary for them to do.. their likely action in the coming months or even year or two (presuming that BTC prices stay stagnant) would be just to continue to DCA buy BTC with whatever percentage of their cashflow that they deem to be ongoingly prudent for their circumstances.

 

ONLY one person complained about chart buddy.. so seems that the overwhelmingly majority of us (essentially every single body) no do not care if there happen to get posted walls of chartbuddy(ies).

Fair enough.. that is what I was asking..

So, yeah.. one thing is that it does not matter so much if you have an opinion that is popular or not regarding which way that you expect that the BTC price is going to go.. but surely, it is important to have a plan that helps you to be able to deal with the situation if it plays out like you expect and also to be able to deal with the situation if your expectations do not play out.

To me, your plan sounds reasonable, yet that would be mostly for you to figure out if the particulars are sufficiently comfortable for you.

Hard to give too many shits about peeps who may well overly rely upon technical analysis - especially when there are a lot of historical examples of many being so god-damned wrong... but still they live on to predict another day.



Nothing wrong with selling a wee bit.. but seems problematic to be selling after about a 53% dippening, and we are still in about a 40% to 44% correction zone.. depending on which hour I send my post.



Actually, you are finally saying something worth listening to..

 



I doubt that exact parallels can be made between peeps screaming up and peeps screaming down, but sure any of us can agree that on an ongoing basis there are peeps who are overly optimistic in one direction or another and the levels of optimism do tend to go with the trend, somewhat.. not exclusively but somewhat.


At least you admit to not knowing shit, and your use of the term "crypto" in these here parts is providing further evidence that you are lacking focus in your thinkenings (to the extent that your spewings can be called thinkenings).


That's probably all that we needed to know.


Hope not.  You don't seem to be adding any value in these here parts.


Due to the pandemic.. the use of drive throughs (for all kinds of use-cases) have surely increased quite a bit in the past year or so..


Hahahaha

You must be new here bitcoinPsycho.

you actually believe that Arriemoller has any meaningful ability to let anything go?

He's like a toddler with a toy..

Arriemoller has an ability to take the stupidest of shit and to emphasize it as if it were the ONLY thing that matters in the world.

Who cares if it is popular or not?

What you going to do about your own feelings?



I doubt that the power of bitcoin is undermined in any kind of meaningful way merely because there might be some things that it cannot do very well.  

In that regard, seems to me, that bitcoin is going to be very capable of having value and serving as a decent investment when it provides some options that are NOT otherwise available.

Sure, you might proclaim that some shitcoins can do the same thing as bitcoin, and maybe they can do some of thew same things as bitcoin, but seems to me that every single one of them (name one that is an exception) can ONLY do things as well or better than bitcoin because of the fact that bitcoin is providing them with a security blanket in order to be able to do what they can do.  So then, which one has the value?  Seems that bitcoin does not even have a competitor, yet.. name one?  go ahead.. name one... just one.. no pressure.. go ahead.  I am waiting.


Have your various interest earning bullshits been liquidated, yet?

sorry for your loss.

I am shocked!!!!!!!!!!!

Absolutely shocked!!!!!!!!!


Note:  according to your forum registration, you, Karartma, have been in bitcoin for about the same amount of time as me.

Weren't you in bitcoin in 2015?  when BTC had spent so much time in the $250-ish arena?

So for example, in 2015, $10k could get you 40BTC, no?

Right now, even at these more or less bargain BTC prices (let's call them $39k-ish as I type - well dropping fast.. so I am still going to use $39k.. even though I see $38k $37,610 being touched upon with a long red candle as I type).. you are ONLY going to get .25641026BTC for $10k (in the event that you have $10k) and to buy 40 BTC it is going to cost you $1.56 million..... so yeah, I appreciate that money printer has gone burrrrrr but still $10k has not deflated all the way to $1.56 million has it?  

In other words, which one is it, good ole buddy?  why u be celebrating "bargains" so much based on 5 digit BTC prices?  I want some of what u gots.       

You believe that the opening of a lot of shorts shows that the BTC price is going down?


Whoaza!!!!





Oh my.

Is something wrong with my lil head?  I cannot even think of one project that even comes close to bitcoin in terms of value add and where I would like to put my money for actual investing (let's say 4-10 years or more).

Sure, there could be some short term playing arounds that work out, but still cannot really think of a good place to put value besides bitcoin.. is it me?  Am I missing something?



Last time I checked, there was no need to buy a whole bitcoin in order to increase your potential of becoming richie.



I don't recall you being so retarded previously, lucky - enough... maybe you just had not said anything previously in order to demonstrate such levels of retardedness?  Perhaps?   



I think that you are correct that our previous dump from about $50k-ish to $30k was partly a product of being able to force leveraged longs to be called.. so once the dumpening was taking place, the leveraged longs provided fuel for further dumpenings - so I am not sure where you get the logic that another further dumpening based on leveraged longs might end up taking place, when you, in fact, recognized that leveraged shorts are building up.

I surely do not claim to be any kind of expert in regards to whether leveraged shorts are going to outnumber leveraged longs in order to fuel UPpity rather than DOWNity, but seems to me that we already had a decent amount of DOWNity, and also seems to me that we still happen to be in a bull market.  BTC price moves do tend to go in the direction of whatever kind of market we are in, so to presume DOWNity when the tendency is UPpity seems to be contrary to the current trend.. and the trend continues to be our friend, no?

If you can do it, then every single other person (or institution) should be able to do it too.  Sure the proportions might be different based on a variety of factors including how much they might already have in bitcoin... and surely, I propose that there should be some urgency for those who do not have any value in bitcoin, and part of that malpractice would be to be telling nocoiners to wait when that is already their scared ass inclinations.. so if you tell nocoiners to wait then you are reinforcing something that they already want to do... which is to scare them out of getting the fuck started.

Hey, I am no damned salesmen when it comes to talking to people online or even in real life because I am frequently telling them that they gotta do what works for them.. but I almost tell anyone who asks about bitcoin to get started rather than waiting and for me, it does not even matter what the BTC price happens to be at the time.... but of course, we do not completely ignore price either because once getting started, there may be some considerations of the current price, historical price and where the price might go in terms of figuring out actual allocations and ways forward.

Of course out of the three BTC accumulation strategies, there are ways to proportion each part of those allocation strategies.. that is the lump sum investing, DCA and buying on dip.. and of course, the HODL is going to kick in when anyone might run out of money at various points and the dippening keeps happening beyond their budgeted amount.



Buy with everything you can, once you establish your budget.  Of course, peeps gotta establish their budgets first, and so many people do not really have good grasps on what is their budget exactly.. get that shit in order and then buying with everything that they can should also be divided into the three tactics of lump sum investing, DCA and buying on dips... There is no need to shoot the whole wadd at one price and then have nothing left if the price dips which just causes feelings of panic to NOT be in a place to be able to do anything because all in was already done at a much higher price then the subsequent dippening price.


I doubt it is "safest" to say wait... Seems to me safest to "get the fuck started" and then to apportion in accordance with your own situation.  So set up accounts is the first thing.. maybe put $10 in each account, figure out your situation, establish your goals and plans and then start to execute.  Some people can spare $1 week and others might be able to spare $1,000 per week, but I still might suggest to be careful about whatever is done, so frequently, I will suggest establishing a plan that allows for 6 months or longer in terms of attempting to plan out a budget..

So let's say for example that a person has $6k in cash and $6k in expected cashflow over the next six months, then that is $12k for their 6-month budget but they do not have access to all $12k at that particular moment.. and they better NOT be exaggerating their expected cashflow either..,. because each of us should attempt to be realistic with our own projections of our cashflow and what we have reasonably available to invest into BTC or anything else for that matter.. gotta be able to continually be able to pay the bills and to pay any emergency expenses that will come up.. and emergency expenses are inevitable.. especially if you have not planned for them #justsaying.

Sure $12k might seem like a lot of money, and a lot of people might not even have that much extra that they can afford to invest in bitcoin, even if spread over 6 months.. but whatever, I largely am using that amount because it is a nice round number and easy to divide in several ways.

For example, lump sum might involved taking 1/3 ($4k) and investing right way or alternatively taking ONLY 1/3 of what is actually available ($2k) and investing right away.  Then the next 1/3 wouls  be set up for DCA so $4k/26=$153.85 per week, and then 1/3 for buying on dips.  Maybe look at our current price, and then consider intervals down to $20k  $4k / 40 would be $100 for each interval (or some other variation of comfort that could be moved with the passage of time)..

So if during the next 6 months there is a cashflow shortage (there better not be because hopefully your cashflow estimates were already conservative), then there might be a need to take from the allocation.. more likely, if you have planned conservatively, during the next 6 months there might be some cash that comes in that was not counted upon when making the 6 month projection, so when the new quasi-unexpected cash comes in, it is plugged into the three categories of the existing system.  If the amount that comes in is $3k for example (yes nice and divisible) then it is divided by 3 and 1/3 goes to lump sum, 1/3 goes to DCA and 1/3 goes to buying on dip.

Anyone can adjust the specifics to their own situation, but there should be attempts to consider all the categories, especially if in an accumulation stage and on a budget.. once accumulation goals are met, then there would likely be a lot of relaxing of the practices and strategies.. but then also much easier to sit back and relax a bit once accumulation goals are reached... sure if someone is relatively young in their 20s to 40s, then they might never really believe that they graduated from accumulation goals because their fuck you (retirement) timeline might still be a wee bit into the future.. but again, each person has to consider those kinds of matters, and surely you might consider that I might be picking on the young-uns, but I am not, one of the problems of being in your 20s is that there is a whole fucking long time to need to be able to support ur lil selfie on whatever richness that you have accumulated.. so you gots to be careful in terms of pulling the fuck you lever way too early if you are in your 20s if you have not figured out a plan in which the amount of capital that you have accumulated is able to support you without unduly depleting the principle in the process of 50 to 70 years of drawing upon it if you were to be so young and with a potentially long timeline in which you would be wanting to live off of your accumulated wealth.


No problem about being confused and humbled, even though your outline of the OP does seem to apply, especially if we have a dip, then shouldn't we either be buying or HODLing?  And, if the dip last long enough and we might have some cashflow come in.. let's say that we earn anywhere between $3k to $6k per month (again nice round numbers), but for some reason, we have about $2,400 to $4,800 in expenses, so we ONLY have $600 to $1,200 (round numbers) left for consideration to potentially put into bitcoin.  Are we going to buy the dip?  DCA? HODL? or something else?  Sure, waiting is a form of HODL, I suppose, but if you don't fucking got ur lil selfie no bitcoin then you are NOT prepared for UPpity.. you are ONLY prepared for DOWNity, which does not seem to be a good place to be..

One of my ongoing suggestions for everyone is to prepare for both directions, and sure you have to come to your own conclusions regarding what those preparations can reasonably be, and so many nocoiners and even bitcoiners themselves tend to be way more prepared for DOWNity than they are for UPpity.. and that has been part of their problem, even in the past couple of bitcoin cycles.. to overly prepare for DOWNity and to under prepare for UPpity.. and historically bitcoin has shown us (likely to continue into the future) that you do not even need to prepare a lot for UPpity in order to be able to profit stupendously from whatever UPpity preparations that you have made.. just get the fuck off of zero.  hahahahaha

Of course, our actual specific circumstances, even including our timeline as a potentially decent and distinguishing factor between you and me make a decent difference in regards to whether on a personal level we are considering matters further out.. or we might even feel that we had largely transitioned out of BTC accumulation in the past.. or  even having had come into BTC with an already decent stash of front-loading money... So there can end up being quite a few individual circumstances that could end up affecting folks differently even if they may well have gotten started in BTC at around the same time... which seem to be part of the difference in perspective between me and you.  



Yes.. of course, your repeatedly reading creepy or stalking or OPsec violations or blah blah blah into my interaction tactics seems to be some thing that you are wanting to see rather than something that is actually happening in reality.  But I am not going to put anything past you in terms of your sometimes selectively making shit up in order to fit some of your nonsense narrative that sometimes can be a bit difficult to figure out, too... is it a conservative bull or a bullish bear... hhahahahaha.. whatevers.  



You seem to be wanting to read a lot into the burlesque theme, too.. which is also kind of going above my head, at least at this time, which is not the first time.

I doubt that you can completely go by that theory of overhype to have confidence that the top is in, but you surely can do what you feel comfortable with.



I am trying to talk substantively with you, and surely some of those pegged tokens are bringing in extra risk, but I will concede that they are somewhat relevant to this thread because we are talking BTC/USD pair here.. and I understand that some exchanges might not even be offering USD as part of their trading pairs.. so some form of pegged coin might be the closest that you are able to reasonably get... so I am not trying to be overly harsh about your keeping the value in some kind of stable coin product because the main point that you made was that you were getting completely out of BTC.. so sure, I was probably a bit wordy in my response... what else is new?



Ok... I may have even invited you in terms of going into that, so I am not going to poo-poo you about those aspects of what you are doing regarding those USD pegged coins because I do believe that your main points do happen to be that you believe that BTC had already topped out, at least in the short term.. maybe even a year or more.. but surely even you are not necessarily going that far in terms of just wanting to watch the 200-week moving average in terms of a bottom that you expect to be reached at some point while you might still be profitable to get back into your BTC long, perhaps?

By the way, I did already attempt to express my current concerns about theories that suggest that we already topped out, in my response to Richy_T from about an hour ago.. so I do feel like I am starting to repeat myself, too.

I doubt that too many guys here has a problem for cashing out a portion of your stash.. 10% or 20% or even more.. kind of in some kind of reason.. - even if you end up being wrong...  You surely are not wrong at the current moment, but how long are we going to stay below $50k?  Furthermore, cashing out everything seems a bit short-sighted and gambling.. even if you have around 5x profits at the cashed-out price.

Time will tell how it works out for you, and you know that even if you are somehow reading our current BTC charts as topped out, it is possible that we get up and down BTC price movements, that do not come back down to $50k.. time will tell about that, too.  

You know about the various current price prediction models, right?  You could buy back 20% to 50% of your stash at current prices, and still have some profits on that but also some ability to profit from either price direction, otherwise you are ONLY betting on down.. which does not really seem to be a great place to be.. but peeps gonna do what peeps gonna do..... especially if you are highly confident in where you are at and what you are doing based on current BTC price dynamics.

By the way, what do believe that the guys who had bought into BTC at $50k should do? keep buying while the BTC price is below $50k to bring down their average buy price?  or just HODL and wait to buy more BTC in the event that BTC prices get close to the 200-week moving average?  You recognize that the 200-week moving average is moving up fairly quickly, and it may well get up to moving up $1,000 per week in the near future.  It was at about $5k-ish during the March 2020 event and so the BTC price did stay below it for about a week or perhaps a bit longer at that time.  In any event, it is not out of the question that the 200-week moving average could move up to $50k in a year or two.  Guys who bought at $50k should not sell their BTC at a loss, right?

Surely your earlier mentioning of "Uniswap's USDC/DAI" does not seem to be either on-topic here nor a better place to rest your value.. including resting your value in the dollar (and sure that USDC/DAI is likely pegged to the dollar and maybe you are earning interest on it from whereever you are storing it?  in dollar equivalents. if you don't lose it from the third party, right?).. but or whatever currency you cashed out your $50k BTC for.