Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Happy Bitcoin Pizza Day Guys.

[somac.]

fuck this shit.

Have your various interest earning bullshits been liquidated, yet?

sorry for your loss.

Only a loss (actually still mass amounts of profit) if I sell, and that is NEVER going to happen.

Hahahaha

Ok... Fair enough.

Why was I trying to read more bitter in you than actually exists?

Maybe because you have been expressing a lots of emotions in recent times?  Perhaps?  Perhaps?

I'm just having a whinge, that is all.

Also, speaking of my "interest earning bullshits" that I did with 1 BTC, It has been going awesome. I pulled in, as income, USD15k on that 1 BTC so far (2.5 months). If only I had the balls to of used more BTC. Also None of that 1 BTC is gone, it still = 1 BTC.

Probably for more than half of the over 7 years of my participation on this forum, I have been suggesting that for fuck you status, there are probably a lot of guys who would need at least $1million in capital, so that would be presuming a $3,333 per month as passive income a starting point.  I have been inclined to double that amount in the past year or two - and probably especially after some of the shocking aspects of the early 2020 money printer go burr situation.. so that would mean $2million in capital which would be presumed to be able to sustain about $6,666 per month in passive income.

You seem to be suggesting that you are getting about $6,000 per month  ($15k/2.5) in passive income with merely 1 BTC.. which surely would have fluctuated in value between about $30k and $64,895k.,. Seems too good to be true... to be sustainable?  Even considering BTC values at $60k, to be able to earn 100% the value of the BTC in 10 months.

Yes that 1 BTC has also, unfortunately gone down in value over those months, but we play 1 BTC = 1 BTC  here so not to worry.

Too good to be true? No. Sustainable? unlikely over the long-term with just 1 coin.

I have been selling OTM call options on that 1 coin, those calls have stupid high premiums, so making that money quickly is easy enough, the problem will come if it goes up in price substantially within the short time frame (hopefully it does and stays there), this is where it is possibly not sustainable, and all you can do to avoid is sell well OTM calls (less premium) or do you best to time your trades.

We'll see how it all goes in the end, but in my mind it beats selling, as if I were to do this I would lose all capital gains (also be taxed like a bitch) where as OTM calls mean I still get some capital gains at least.

I have done this trade in legacy markets prior, so experience helps. Understanding the greeks is paramount to maximising ones return, right now the volatlity has created some pretty high premiums so even now the gains can still be fantastic, that will drop off though as time goes on, but hopefully price goes back up at same time.

This shit ain't for everyone and I certainly don't recommend it without a full understanding of what you are getting into. HODL will always be the best strategy long-term for accumulation of capital. And there is no way you should even attempt it Jay, you lack the ability to understand the perspective yet alone the trade, so just do what works for you.

[JayJuanGee]

This shit ain't for everyone and I certainly don't recommend it without a full understanding of what you are getting into. HODL will always be the best strategy long-term for accumulation of capital. And there is no way you should even attempt it Jay, you lack the ability to understand the perspective yet alone the trade, so just do what works for you.

Funny how you have been acting like such a whinny little bitch in recent days in spite of your supposedly being able to kill it with sophisticated financial instruments in recent times, too.

Also, it seems to me to be much better to be attempting to describe BTC portfolio strategies that are replicable, and I tend to do that on an ongoing and regular basis..

Of course, any guy should be attempting to start with basics and that is getting their financial shit together so that they are not whining like a little girl every time the BTC price moves.. because if guys get their financial shit together, then they should already be prepared both financially and psychologically for BTC price moves in any direction and even extreme moves. 

Seems to me that if a guy is not psychologically prepared for BTC price moves and he is whining like a little girl, (we already have decent ideas that they can and tend to be extreme from time to time), then there is likely something wrong with strategy in a financial way too.. so basics (finance 101 - which seem to be a challenge to you somac) would be to attempt as best as possible to align finances with psychology.

In response to your  other convoluted and potentially contradicting nonsense, there seems to be no real need for me to go into detail about what has been so fucking awesome about my own BTC system, even though I have largely been in BTC about 7.5 years now, so the first years were building foundations but already having a decent amount of capital that I could inject and allocate into bitcoin.

On the other hand, we know that if guys are starting investing from scratch, then they might have to exercise a considerable amount of patience to even build up their investment portfolio to 1 BTC.. not that I am even conceding to have 1 BTC since that is also considered to be a lot these days, so beginners likely are going to have lower targets before they might start feeling that they can go baller with any of their stash... which surely, I tend to be a person who wants to recommend means that are fairly conservative and straightforward rathe than the employment of complicated and convoluted investment mechanisms... which may well screw peeps out of whatever investment portfolio that they may have, as you seem to suggest to be a potential risk somac (besides your bragging about it).

[somac.]

This shit ain't for everyone and I certainly don't recommend it without a full understanding of what you are getting into. HODL will always be the best strategy long-term for accumulation of capital. And there is no way you should even attempt it Jay, you lack the ability to understand the perspective yet alone the trade, so just do what works for you.

Funny how you have been acting like such a whinny little bitch in recent days in spite of your supposedly being able to kill it with sophisticated financial instruments in recent times, too.

Also, it seems to me to be much better to be attempting to describe BTC portfolio strategies that are replicable, and I tend to do that on an ongoing and regular basis..

Of course, any guy should be attempting to start with basics and that is getting their financial shit together so that they are not whining like a little girl every time the BTC price moves.. because if guys get their financial shit together, then they should already be prepared both financially and psychologically for BTC price moves in any direction and even extreme moves. 

Seems to me that if a guy is not psychologically prepared for BTC price moves and he is whining like a little girl, (we already have decent ideas that they can and tend to be extreme from time to time), then there is likely something wrong with strategy in a financial way too.. so basics (finance 101 - which seem to be a challenge to you somac) would be to attempt as best as possible to align finances with psychology.

In response to your  other convoluted and potentially contradicting nonsense, there seems to be no real need for me to go into detail about what has been so fucking awesome about my own BTC system, even though I have largely been in BTC about 7.5 years now, so the first years were building foundations but already having a decent amount of capital that I could inject and allocate into bitcoin.

On the other hand, we know that if guys are starting investing from scratch, then they might have to exercise a considerable amount of patience to even build up their investment portfolio to 1 BTC.. not that I am even conceding to have 1 BTC since that is also considered to be a lot these days, so beginners likely are going to have lower targets before they might start feeling that they can go baller with any of their stash... which surely, I tend to be a person who wants to recommend means that are fairly conservative and straightforward rathe than the employment of complicated and convoluted investment mechanisms... which may well screw peeps out of whatever investment portfolio that they may have, as you seem to suggest to be a potential risk somac (besides your bragging about it).

Losing half of ones net worth, while making 15K in income over a 2 and a half month period is hardly killing it. It is actually a disaster.

Now, something you will never understand is that you a piece of shit, everyone else can recongnise that, but you never will. So just accept your limitations and stop thinking you know better than everyone else, you don't.

[aesma]

Hello guys. So unlike others I'm not a trader, although I can use a small part of my stash to buy low and sell high, but with BTC, high one day is low another day. If the stash is in fiat, it's still OK.

This month I decided I had too much fiat and wanted to put 30K€ (36500$) back in, 1000€ (1220$) a day. I started when prices were at 46-48000€ (58500$) so I expected to get about 0.66BTC, and now we're at 30000€ (36500$) so pretty bad timing, but 2 thirds of the way my average buying price is 35000€ so I'm pretty happy with that.

Do you think I should put the last third in ASAP and buy at the current 30K€ (36500$) price, or continue with the plan ?

I'm keeping some bags of cash anyway in case the price goes down to 20K€, 10K€, and if it goes below that, we'll see, I might go all in, or stop buying because something bad would have caused such price.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ivomm]

Good morning WO! I see that we are 20%+ the bottom, which is a good sign. I think that what we've seen in the last week is not a logical part of the market dynamics. On the contrary, this was a heavily manipulated well coordinated dump using high leverage shorts on bitmex, aided by some unfortunate FUD like Moron's tweets and the chinese winnie the poohs fake news. We know that each time Bitcoin is rising, the chinese communists are reiterating for a millionth time the ban narrative in a desparate but doomed attempt to save the communist yuan. They are so desparate that they are creating millions of fake facebook accounts to advertise the digital yuan. It is quite fun for me to report any add as misleading each time I see it (10+ times per day).

So now the big quiestion is what will happen next. How far the derivate manipulations will go (including CME, which are more subtle, but still present)? I don't want to make assumptions in that direction, since this is only a matter of manipulations, not the real thing. Sooner or later the fiat liquidity will punish the leveraged shorts attempts and wipe out all bitcoins of their owners to 0. Even in 2017 after the 70% dump from the ATH there was a 2x recovery from 6K to 12K. But then most people thought that 20K was not a legit price because it stayed only a couple of days after some weird pump from 10K to 20K. And around 12K a huge amount of weak hodler bitcoins flooded the exchanges which made the price to tank further.

Now the situation is much different. Everyone saw that the price stayed around 60K for months, so it is quite doable and sustainable. The average Joe is still dreaming for a whole coin, so any price lower thatn 30K will be short lived. Moreover, if we look at the log chart with the two 2x parallel lines, we see that the bottom price at the end of 2021 is $25600 and in 2022 - $51200, which can happen only in a severe bear market! This is a contradiction, because it will mean that somewhere in between we will return into the bull market. Since this dump is short lived and not fueled by the weaker hodlers like in 2018, I think that the chances of returning to the bull market in the next few months, even weeks are bigger than in 2022. And that will resemble 2013 double top market. If it happens in 2021 the top price would be around 150-200K+. If it happens in 2022, it would be 300-400K+.

[bitebits]

https://taproot.watch/miners

If BTC.com is able to upgrade all their nodes in the coming days, we will have taproot activated next difficulty epoch!

[somac.]

https://taproot.watch/miners

If BTC.com is able to upgrade all their nodes in the coming days, we will have taproot activated next difficulty epoch!

Apparently they said end of this week.

[virasog]

TLDR; We already had enough decline compared with 2013, but could go to about 25K in the oversold scenario. Anything lower would be a problem.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

Losing half of ones net worth, while making 15K in income over a 2 and a half month period is hardly killing it. It is actually a disaster.

For some reason, I did not let the so far 53% drop in BTC's price get to me in an emotional way.. so you are seeming to have some disproportional issues  with that.. as if you are a newbie rather than someone who has had time to accumulate a decent BTC stash.

Of course, I am having some difficulties with some of the exact calculations, but for ballpark purposes some of us might be able to concede that there may have been BTC bought and sold at a variety of prices over the years, and let's just presume that various mistakes were made along the way, too.

So even if some of us may have been in BTC for about 7.5 years (and based on your forum registration date, maybe you and I would be in a very similar position somac?), so maybe we could even concede that our average price per BTC was around $1k per BTC.  Wouldn't that be more or less fair? 

Much easier to calculate impacts of price changes with a round number, no?  So if our portfolio dropped from about 65x profits down to about 30x profits, I am having some troubles feeling the supposed trauma of such a BTC price drop. 

Even though I was buying BTC through 2013, 2014 and 2015, I felt a bit more uneasiness for that period, but even if we assume a similar level of costs per BTC, in 2017/2018 we had a price drop from 20x to 3x, so for some reason with the more passage of time, there seems to be some decent cushion in terms of the amount of the fall in the BTC price.

I am not going to even say that I have one BTC, but let’s presume someone might have 100BTC, and so a drop from $65k to $30k would be a drop from $6.5million in value to $3million in value.. but it is still better than a drop from $2million to $300k, no?  So if you have been able to hang onto some of your BTC over the years, then there should be a bit of a cushion there?

Again, for some reason, I am not feeling the level of panic that you seem to be feeling, somac.

Now, something you will never understand is that you a piece of shit, everyone else can recongnise that, but you never will.

   

I suppose that I do not understand, and probably I don’t care if you and maybe a few others might not like me, but I am not going to let it ruin my day.. or even to get all upset in my posts.

So just accept your limitations and stop thinking you know better than everyone else, you don't.

I presume that you are referring to limitations in my abilities to manage my finances rather than in my ability to get along with others?  You are a bit convoluted here, but I doubt that I was even panicking as close to you in the past few days, which seems to be a sign that I have good financial and psychological management relative to you.. no?. 

Furthermore, I do not presume that I know better than everyone else, because I believe that each person should be attempting to tailor his approach to his own situation including his own limitations and then figure out the extent to which (if at all) he will want to interact with any other member(s) in this thread.   

 It’s hard for me to see that there might be some kind of other important or material problem with my post style or content.. and seems a bit distracting to even consider the matter.  For example, I recall in 2016-ish or maybe it was 2017, there were a lot of guys in the thread telling me how much they hate me on a regular basis and how the thread would be better without my participation blah blah blah.

I have continued to participate… sucks to be you guys forced to read my stuff, and the thread seems to be going just fine, and I hardly even modified the extent of my attempts at contributions to the thread, even though some peeps have said that they do not like me on a regular basis.. hahahahaha

In other words.. hardly news to me, somac, so I am having difficulties understanding the point that you are wanting to make, except wanting to let me know something that I already know – not to get too self-absorbed with baloney talk about how much my content or I may or may not be liked… a BIG whooptie-doo, no?

[luckygenough56]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=htgr3pvBr-I

hold the line 

[JayJuanGee]

Hello guys. So unlike others I'm not a trader, although I can use a small part of my stash to buy low and sell high, but with BTC, high one day is low another day. If the stash is in fiat, it's still OK.

This month I decided I had too much fiat and wanted to put 30K€ (36500$) back in, 1000€ (1220$) a day. I started when prices were at 46-48000€ (58500$) so I expected to get about 0.66BTC, and now we're at 30000€ (36500$) so pretty bad timing, but 2 thirds of the way my average buying price is 35000€ so I'm pretty happy with that.

Do you think I should put the last third in ASAP and buy at the current 30K€ (36500$) price, or continue with the plan ?

I'm keeping some bags of cash anyway in case the price goes down to 20K€, 10K€, and if it goes below that, we'll see, I might go all in, or stop buying because something bad would have caused such price.

I usually plug any new cash into three categories:  Lump sum, DCA and buying on dips.  So you have to decide how to apportion the amount that you have.  Sounds like you already have some allocated to buying on dips, so you would have to decide if you want to plug more into that category and the other two categories. 

The total of what you do has a lot to do with your particulars and it is NOT only about your views about BTC as compared with other assets, you consider your ongoing cashflow, your other investments, your timeline, your risk tolerance and your time, skills and abilities to tweak along the way.

Of course, opinions are all over the place in regards to whether the bottom is already in or the top is already in and so many other variations, so how you invest can really become a very close impression of yourself and your views and how much you might hedge for a variety of possibilities while still being happy if the price moved against your hedging in one direction or another, so in the end, if you set up your amounts correctly, then you should not really have BIG concerns about if the BTC price goes up or down because you are taking advantage of its movement no matter what.

[luckygenough56]

15 minutes candles seem like 1 hour candles when you daytrading 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[aesma]

Hello guys. So unlike others I'm not a trader, although I can use a small part of my stash to buy low and sell high, but with BTC, high one day is low another day. If the stash is in fiat, it's still OK.

This month I decided I had too much fiat and wanted to put 30K€ (36500$) back in, 1000€ (1220$) a day. I started when prices were at 46-48000€ (58500$) so I expected to get about 0.66BTC, and now we're at 30000€ (36500$) so pretty bad timing, but 2 thirds of the way my average buying price is 35000€ so I'm pretty happy with that.

Do you think I should put the last third in ASAP and buy at the current 30K€ (36500$) price, or continue with the plan ?

I'm keeping some bags of cash anyway in case the price goes down to 20K€, 10K€, and if it goes below that, we'll see, I might go all in, or stop buying because something bad would have caused such price.

I usually plug any new cash into three categories:  Lump sum, DCA and buying on dips.  So you have to decide how to apportion the amount that you have.  Sounds like you already have some allocated to buying on dips, so you would have to decide if you want to plug more into that category and the other two categories. 

The total of what you do has a lot to do with your particulars and it is NOT only about your views about BTC as compared with other assets, you consider your ongoing cashflow, your other investments, your timeline, your risk tolerance and your time, skills and abilities to tweak along the way.

Of course, opinions are all over the place in regards to whether the bottom is already in or the top is already in and so many other variations, so how you invest can really become a very close impression of yourself and your views and how much you might hedge for a variety of possibilities while still being happy if the price moved against your hedging in one direction or another, so in the end, if you set up your amounts correctly, then you should not really have BIG concerns about if the BTC price goes up or down because you are taking advantage of its movement no matter what.

Basically if I finish my buys at the current price I think I would be happy. But of course if the price crashes again 30% then I might not feel that way. I have already some buy orders for up to a 15% drop from here.

[Searing]

Hello guys. So unlike others I'm not a trader, although I can use a small part of my stash to buy low and sell high, but with BTC, high one day is low another day. If the stash is in fiat, it's still OK.

This month I decided I had too much fiat and wanted to put 30K€ (36500$) back in, 1000€ (1220$) a day. I started when prices were at 46-48000€ (58500$) so I expected to get about 0.66BTC, and now we're at 30000€ (36500$) so pretty bad timing, but 2 thirds of the way my average buying price is 35000€ so I'm pretty happy with that.

Do you think I should put the last third in ASAP and buy at the current 30K€ (36500$) price, or continue with the plan ?

I'm keeping some bags of cash anyway in case the price goes down to 20K€, 10K€, and if it goes below that, we'll see, I might go all in, or stop buying because something bad would have caused such price.

I usually plug any new cash into three categories:  Lump sum, DCA and buying on dips.  So you have to decide how to apportion the amount that you have.  Sounds like you already have some allocated to buying on dips, so you would have to decide if you want to plug more into that category and the other two categories.  

The total of what you do has a lot to do with your particulars and it is NOT only about your views about BTC as compared with other assets, you consider your ongoing cashflow, your other investments, your timeline, your risk tolerance and your time, skills and abilities to tweak along the way.

Of course, opinions are all over the place in regards to whether the bottom is already in or the top is already in and so many other variations, so how you invest can really become a very close impression of yourself and your views and how much you might hedge for a variety of possibilities while still being happy if the price moved against your hedging in one direction or another, so in the end, if you set up your amounts correctly, then you should not really have BIG concerns about if the BTC price goes up or down because you are taking advantage of its movement no matter what.

Basically if I finish my buys at the current price I think I would be happy. But of course if the price crashes again 30% then I might not feel that way. I have already some buy orders for up to a 15% drop from here.

started up some home mining again (matchX m2 pro) about $1 a month at most in electric IoT miner)  just because....you can never have too much 'coin' of whatever mining when the

sh*t hits the fan and the price of BTC/crypto tanks...a bit of delusional/denial, hobby-wise, to get me through all this,  but hey....whatever gets me through this latest dump....and/per usual

on 'price recover' on BTC, when I convert this MXC someday the dust from this hobby miner. Rinse/WashRepeat.

I've mined 'air' before at a loss for a year ..did it and stubborn in 2014 on $1.80 LTC and stubbornly stuck to it. the same frigging' newbie bet/idea

"a small act of dubious rebellion' and these times require a 'truly/stupid/senseless and futile gesture on someone's part!, eventually will convert this MXC to go to BTC ...eventually....

Or as I call it 'Fiddling While Rome Burns' for something to do until this whole thing corrects.

This will be my 3rd 'go around' in this manner of 'home mining' while Rome burns since 2013,

By the by, for you newbies that are 'currently freaked out' again, Rinse/Wash/Repeat.

Brad

[aesma]

I'm not mining currently as it's not possible where I'm living but I hope to move soon and there will definitely be a room dedicated to mining. Probably 1 BTC rig and 1 alt rig (selling most of the alts for BTC).

[aesma]

My bank is automatically flagging my bank movements (healthcare, groceries, gas, utilities, etc.) when it can, and I just noticed the money I'm sending to an exchange is now flagged "crypto". Not sure if it's good or bad (although I already knew they knew as they asked about it years ago).