Title says it all. Have no idea what the price will be in 8 hours but am sure it will either be up a lot or have crashed further. Which is it?
I am almost sure that in next 8 hourse price won't change a lot, so it will be neither when you'll wake up, price now is 430$ so i think that price after 8 hours will be around 440$ but not more, because price rises this whole week The Bitcoin price cant reduce in a fast time as you can see now you see that the value is now stable and the most people think that the value will rise soon after the halving, that can be good. Bitcoin will not reduce in value, it is now stable enough to rise and that is nice. You're replying to someone who, when they posted, had just seen happen that exact thing you're saying can't happen. |
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anything higher than $1000 will definitely not happen this year. but don't get tricked into thinking the price won't go up just because the price has been quite stable lately. people here never seem to be satisfied. one day they say that they are tired of the volatility and look forward to a more stable price. and once the price became stable people start to co mplain about the market being boring and such. people simply don't know what they want anymore.
Ain't that the truth. And it tends to be "(I am not a merchant but) merchants hate volatility" or "(I am not a trader but) traders hate stability". There seems to be no conception that volatility exists with every currency pair - one of the most volatile currency pairs is GBP/AUD, yet, incredibly, Australian retailers manage to successfully sell me things in exchange for my British Pounds. It's almost as if this volatility thing is a known problem with known solutions. But that's just crazy talk. |
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The problem with your trading strategy is that you will make a little bit of money every so often while the price fluctuates within your range, but when there is a big move against you, you will lose all your profits.
It depends how you do it. Last year I was buying BTC around $220 (I was aiming for $200, but in practice I'd wait for it to rise above $200 before buying) and selling calls around $280 (aiming for $300, but etc etc). If price started to rise after I'd sold a call I'd buy a call around $300-$320 to hedge. In practice this only happened once (in November), and my losses were limited to the difference between the calls I'd bought and the calls I'd sold. I could have done a similar hedge with plain-old shorting, but I'm happier with pure options (shorting terrifies me, perhaps unreasonably...) |
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Most people in the speculation forum don't understand anything about Bitcoin mining. The first thing you need to understand is, nobody running a current process node miner actually turns them off no matter what the price does. You're either an ASIC dealer that spent millions on research and design to make it, or some random Joe that paid a big premium for one. Turning them off makes no sense for anyone since Bitcoin is an asymmetric investment. Unless you're mining with crazy expensive electricity, your current generation miner will either pay off eventually, or Bitcoin will go to 0. There's no purpose in turning it off.
If you're mining, you likely already own coins, and increasing hash power just drives the price up of the ones you already have as well. Trust me, I've rented out like 80% of the hashpower of entire altcoins, I'm an expert on this from firsthand experience. Since the amount of miners deployed increased a lot with the recent price increase, this means the floor miners will stop selling at raised too. If the majority of the network is composed of ASICs that are supposed to be technologically viable, or even near their ROI period at all, but the sell rate is not favorable to that, they will simply stop selling, supply withers to nothing, then the price boom occurs.
Miners also tend to mine at a loss in hopes of future returns (being a deflationary system and all) long before turning their miners off. If the miners do begin to mine at a loss ,they will then also go buy coins off the wall to dollar cost average because we've already determined they aren't turning the miners off. It is 100% inevitable price increases after halving. Post halving price is a function of what the market can bear pre-halving. We've already seen the Mike Hearn R3 propaganda scare dumps where the market didn't drop that much then rebounded anyway. There's not a problem with the market supporting this ballpark of pre-halving price of around a 410 floor.
No matter how you look at it, post halving, in one way or another, through multiple dynamics, the supply will decrease propotional to demand. Mining is a form of demand. Mining is a decentralized exchange, Coinbase is a centralized exchange. The price could increase 50%, it could increase 100%, or depending how elastic demand is, it could go much higher through a big shock in supply side distortion. Around 75% of Bitcoin has already been mined, so the hard part, the putting money up front to capitalize the accumulation period, is already done. Now the people who have accumulated just wait for inflation to drop, like it's about to do, then send the market higher. The market will move through both predictable laws of economics and whale engineering at the same time.
OK, I don't necessarily disagree with any of that. It's been many years since I mined, and a lot has changed, but I recognise mining-at-a-loss - when I purchased my first <ahem> "rig" (known as a fancy graphics card back then) I knew I could spend the money on BTC instead, and - initially - have far more BTC. I knew that difficulty would push ROI back further and further. Despite that, I mined at a loss in the hope that - one -day! - BTC would be worth more than the few dollars it was then. So - good analysis, interesting and thought-provoking discussion ensues. What I don't get is - what does that have to do with the subject of the thread? The big struggle I have trying to get people to understand that markets take known, future events into account is getting them to understand that traders don't live in a bubble, that they have access to the same data, the same analysis we have (not least because there's an overlap between "traders" and "us"). The premise here seems to be (1) we know that supply will reduce relative to demand, (2) ?, (3) Profit. What's step 2? |
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Title says it all. Have no idea what the price will be in 8 hours but am sure it will either be up a lot or have crashed further. Which is it?
I am almost sure that in next 8 hourse price won't change a lot, so it will be neither when you'll wake up, price now is 430$ so i think that price after 8 hours will be around 440$ but not more, because price rises this whole week After eight hours price was still around $380. |
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With China now owing about 75% of the mining power i think in all their greed they will destroy bitcoin.
They will never allow the protocol to change to accept larger blocks since it's not in their interest.
You don't have much time left to sell your bags.
Well China is very important for bitcon from day one, and yes,lots of miners are in china, but i don't they that they wouldn't like thing like halving, yes they will get less money but price of bitcoin will rise, so maybe they will get even more profit Yes I would also think that the halving will destroy any profit that china miners are getting now and will deter anymore from going into mining in the future. If there is no big profit to be had then chinese are not interested in pursuing into it any further. (and it's a very big "if") that were to happen, then difficulty would decrease. At some point potential miners are going to note the decrease in difficulty and start mining. This apocalyptic "all miners stop mining" nonsense is silly. We've been through one halving and this didn't happen. Why would it happen this time? |
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Fundamentally, the price of the bitcoin depends on the supply and demand of the coins. The usage will increase the demand.
Short term price movement is dependent on long & short games at various market... Yeah but bitcoins price doesn't depend much on that. Just according to the technology the crypts are running successfully without much falls. i agree, all the long and short games are effective but not as much as the supply and demand and also the increasing demand the more usage will cause. Supply and demand and ... demand?  It makes an interesting change from "supply and demand and [insert bogeyman/angel]"! |
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If the daily price fluctuaition is less than 3% and the price just rise 5% a month, then I could say the price is stable.
What is the daily fluctuation? I worked out the average weekly change a while back, from the raw data at Bitcoincharts. The average weekly change between 2010 and December 2015 was 2.75%. Obviously that pushes the average monthly change beyond 5%, though. |
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That seems to be a high expectation. Going to bed with this price won't take you to $500 or $300 in a twelve hours time.
$500 to under $380 in 12 hours. Under the circumstances it looks like it was a realistic concern. I think it will not drop from $500 to $380 again. If the price is $500, the bottom is $400. Yes. As did the post romero121 was replying to. |
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The bitcoin price has been below $440 for some time. If the price break the $440 level, it will go much higher.
Why $440? (Apart from it being the subject of this thread and the price on February 20). There does seem to have been some support and resistance around $440 in late February, but looking at the past 5-6 months I'm much more inclined towards support and resistance drawing closer - lower highs and higher lows. If price got above ~$425 I'd expect it to go much higher (and, conversely, if it went below ~$415 I'd expect it to much lower). |
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And now 30-day volatility is at 1.08%. 60-day down to 1.55%. As many have noticed periods of decreased volatility historically precede periods of increased volatility. I think we have at least another month of stability though. Time will tell. 0.98% today. One month seems too long to me, but wouldn't entirely surprise me (I've grown used to being more excited by volatility (or the lack thereof...) than by price). If I had to guess I'd go with no longer than two weeks before we exit the triangle. |
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If you think the block halving is priced in, then sell your coins, which you already did. Good for you, but what's the point of letting us know that you sold? Just to make youself feel good while you know that the price will go up from this point? Good luck with buying back.
I, uh, think that's suitable advice for the OP (if you know what I mean ). I'm not convinced it's good advice in general, however. The block halving being priced in doesn't mean that the price now is the price forever more. It simply means that traders are aware that the halving will occur. Let me put it like this... if you have a bond, say, that pays $10 a month for the next 12 months, and then returns the initial principle of $100 - how much would that be worth to me? Clearly not $220 (because if I had $220 now, why would I tie it up just so I could receive it back in 12 months time?) It's the same with BTC - the price (broadly) reflects the fact that halving will occur in several months time, not simply that the halving will occur. A rational trader isn't going to buy BTC for the money they think it'll be worth in July - but they will take their estimate of July's worth into account when deciding how much they're prepared to pay for BTC in April. There's also all the other fundamentals, and the usual short- and medium-term noise caused by trading, none of which suddenly disappear simply because we know the halving is coming! tl;dr - Yes, the halving is priced in. No, that doesn't mean that trading BTC has suddenly become pointless! (I'm still hodling). |
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Well, eight months (the rise was early November; the block reward reduction is likely to be early July at the latest). Would it blow your mind if I told you I believe the current price reflects not just the 2013 and 2016 block reward reductions, but 2020 (and subsequent halvings) too?
Yes, it would blow my mind. Markets (especially crypto) are not that efficient. They don't need to be. You don't need to (and I don't) fully accept the Efficient Market Hypothesis to believe that a known event will be reflected in the price in advance. |
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I know bitcoin is not a stock and all that. But with other assets, when there is a well known event that might affect price, price is already affected many months before the event comes. Halving is near enough to be reflected in price, but it does not seem to be affected it yet. That is somewhat strange.
I see last year's rise - after an extended period at $200-$300 - as part of the second halving being "priced in". That was about one year away. I think the market will not respond to the halving so early. That was just the rise due to adoption. Well, eight months (the rise was early November; the block reward reduction is likely to be early July at the latest). Would it blow your mind if I told you I believe the current price reflects not just the 2013 and 2016 block reward reductions, but 2020 (and subsequent halvings) too? What makes you say the November rise was "just" due to adoption (or have I misunderstood you)? I certainly think adoption played its part (along with the relaxation of its then-latest "ban" on BTC by the PBoC) but I don't see that as mutually exclusive. |
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I'm happy to learn this:
$100 and BTC goes up by 5% - you make $20.
strange calculation...
Well spotted, fixed, thanks! |
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No, there isn't a rule saying that the price will increase... And we didn't go through the halving yet.
I hope that the halving will happen anytime soon. It has not happened yet and many bitcoin users are waiting for it to happen. If this will happen it could attract allot more people. The lower price is good for some of us. It gives us more chance to buy cheap coins and sell at higher prices.No it doesn't - don't be silly. If BTC was twice the price you could afford half the BTC you can afford now. If you start with, say, $100 and BTC goes up by 5% - you make $5. That applies whether BTC/USD is $400, $200 or $800. BTC is subdivided into "satoshi" - there are 10 000 000 to every 1 BTC. The price of one satoshi is vanishingly small. Even if BTC price rose to the point where 1 satoshi was unaffordable, BTC could still be further subdivided. The problem you think exists - doesn't. Edit: 5% of $100 is $5, not $20. Every day's a school day! |
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500$ isn't very high level, but i think the Bitcoin's price will reach this level soon
$500 was the expectation for the year of 2015, but fortunately it didn't touched. This time even before the 2016 December we could reach $500 even if halving doesn't take place. Yes , 500$ was the expectation for 2k15 but it did not hit the 500$ line But this time it will reach 500$+ before December 500$ is not so high as we see more investors and companies are getting in with bitcoin and the block size is going to be decrease to 12.5 BTC so the price of bitcoin will rise . |
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Should I sell my BTC or wait till it goes up and why do you think it will go up?
i have no idea why you should sell them now instead of holding them for some time, if you will sell your coins you will lose possible profit only, don't you know anything about halving? Halving will happen in July and it will rise price of bitcoin, so you really shouldn't sell them, better hold them for few months and sell after price rise Because July is seven/eight months away [§]? Because, while price could rise to nearly $460 in a couple of weeks (January 7, 8 ) it could also fall down to $360 (January 14, 15)? Because the price could go sideways until April 6 [§§], resulting in you missing investment opportunities elsewhere? Check the date of the OP. If a post ever gives you cause to ask "don't you know anything?" it's generally a good idea to make sure the question you're answering is the question you think it is. [§] I predict, with a high degree of confidence, replies "explaining" that July is not seven/eight months away. [§§] April 6 2016 is where my powers of prediction end. |
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London seems to be way more open to cryptos and Bitcoin.While NY state stifles progress and innovation via a stupid license, London is rubbing hands and says: "Come to us!" That BitLicense seems be self-defeating. Sort of. So long as it benefits them. Banks in the UK don't appear BTC-friendly at a consumer-level - if you want to stick GBP on an exchange you're looking at a non-UK exchange and SEPA transfers. Even buying BTC on Localbitcoin you'll probably be asked by the seller to use something like "Ebay purchase" as the reference in case the seller's bank takes offence and closes their account for having the audacity to use that magic internet money. I do think this is good news, however, despite the hypocrisy of UK banks. |
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In this week Bitcoins will touch 444$ again , prediction according to china market.
What's happening in the Chinese markets that would suggest BTC/USD would rise to $444? (I can see BTC/USD rising, but $444 just seems like an arbitrary number plucked out of the ether). |
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