Seems to me that when BTC price momentum changes or there might be movements that seem contrary to the earlier momentum such as Gox issues in Feb 2014, Bitfinex hackening in August 2016, blocksize/forkening battles in mid-to-late 2017, the Bcash split in November 2018, the March 2020 liquidity event, Musk's wiffle-waffling proclamations of recent times, or some other events, we cannot really know for sure if the particular supposed BTC price impacting talking-point issue(s) had been really affecting the BTC price in a kind of material way or if the BTC price was inclined to go in that direction anyhow.. and the talking point issue only ends up being an excuse or a partial and incomplete explanation. 

Surely, sometimes when we do get a change in momentum, then it seems that we might also experience some opportunistic jumping on board to try to take advantage of whatever momentum seemed to have been created and sometimes attempts to spread more and more news in the direction of the momentum (if we are talking about down), and I am not even going to proclaim that there would not have been some exacerbating effect of such negative information or the piling on of additional negative information that might be coupled with actual physical dumpenings with an attempt to achieve as much DOWNity that is within reach and to keep the BTC price DOWNity for as long as possible, but in the end, there still might remain some questions regarding how much of a delay was caused all of that hub-bub and/or attempts to manipulate, and maybe if the delay might have come from some other reasons. 

Surely, after the 2017 forkening matter had seemed to resolve itself in August/September 2017, there was a bit of an outrageous BTC price recovery that went quite above and beyond expectations that likely caused several of us (including yours truly) to speculate that there may well be some more upside legs in this, even after already nearly reaching $20k, even though after some amount of time (for me it may have taken nearly 11 months-ish), there was some realization that the top was in and the bull market was delayed a wee bit (taking 3- years to get back to $19,666 - and thereafter above that).

Elon does seem like a BIG so fucking what in the whole scheme of things, but many of us appreciate that various kinds of FUD and manipulations can be employed relatively effectively on a number of occasions, and variations of the "China bans bitcoin" has been used for years, and was even a kind of companion narrative in our recent great movements in BTC mining hashrate - which seems to have largely recovered, even though there were quite a few pundits asserting the BTC mining hashrate as a kind of BIG deal just a few weeks ago.. that also subsequently had been shown to be a pretty BIG so what - whether measured by how quickly it recovered and even the fact that the drop in hashrate was hardly even very large considering the remaining hashpower.. sure a few delays in transactions too and some temporary expensive transactions as well, if you want to get them to go through quickly... but even the mempool seems quite cleared up in the past week or so (maybe even greater than reasonable early projections of high fees forever.. which ended up not even being true.. as the actual facts have played out).

To me, you seem to be overly pessimistic in terms of the extent to which BTC prices might end up being inflated ONLY because the dollar is losing value in exponential kinds of ways.. which harldy seems to be a condition precedent for BTC prices to rise, whether we are looking at BTC's historical price performance, or it likely future price performance..

But let's just say if BTC went up 60x from here (at $50k-ish) to $3million, then I doubt that baguettes, for example, would end up going up even 2x to 5x in their dollar price.. but even in a kind of worser case scenario if baguettes ended up going up 20x.. you would still be 3x better with holding your value in BTC rather than in baguettes.. which is surely bearish about bitcoin to consider that it is ONLY going to 3x in comparison to the dollar..

In any event, when projecting the price of any assets, goods or services, it does not seem too likely to increase in price nearly as much as bitcoin ends up going up in value..,.

Given the $3million bitcoin scenario by 2025.. which also may well NOT end up being a stable bitcoin price but instead a peak BTC price and a subsequent drop into $1million or something like that could end up happening subsequently, perhaps?  if such a BTC price performance dynamic were to play out within only 4-5 more years-ish from now, then surely there could be a decent amount of volatility to get from our current $50k-ish price to 60x.. which would be $3 million.

Of course, a variety of measuring of the value of assets, goods and services would be important, and surely even with the dollar, we know that assets, goods and services do not increase in price at the same rate, so surely if some popping of bubbles do end up taking place, then there could end up being some returns to more fair valuations of assets, goods and services too.. and to suggest that bitcoin might help to address some of these matters, even if it does not end up completely fixing such a problematic matter of sometimes floating valuations and sometimes attempts to control valuations of such assets, goods and services.


Of course, I have heard quite a bit about Bitmex and yes, i have heard of bart and reverse bart, and other sometimes existing chart patterns that may have come about from time to time in bitcoin's history... and possible future, too.....so whatever you are suggesting to be supposedly "obvious" regarding your supposed slam-dunk rebuttal of my earlier post seems to be more conclusionary than getting anywhere in discussion of points raised therein..


I like that.. "kill me now."..


If you do not insert a pic, nobody is going to understand your post.

#justsaying

bear   



Sure, I do not like Eth, but largely in my earlier posts, I was badgering you about ETH and/or other shitcoins not being relevant to this thread, and your failure/refusal to bash them when you are talking about them makes matters worse in terms of your seeming to support them.,. which also seems to be quite irrelevant to this thread, even if it is something that you do to get more bitcoin or dollars.. but whatever... I already made my points in my earlier posts.. but you seem to continue to want to post about shitcoins in this thread.



Yes, I could.. but I am not going to.

There are many things in life that cause me feel to feel dirty, uncomfortable or unpleasant from time to time, but I exercise my discretion regarding how to approach such matters when or if they come up.

I am glad to be alive and to be able to make such decisions.



Since when was this thread about escrow or the dilemmas that might come from being involved in escrow decisions?


Well, I am glad that all worked out for you.


Seems like we might have differing ways of presenting ideas of legit, which seems to have motivated me to respond to your earlier framing of such "legit" categorizations.



I doubt that it is getting me worked up, even if you would like to project such emotions upon me.

I will admit that recently, I had some conversations in real life that devolved in the other person (actually no coiners purportedly contemplating the potential of becoming coiners) who seemed to not know too much about bitcoin but bringing up other cryptos - and doge coin was surely mentioned in prominent kinds of ways.. so that was a bit irritating, and I doubt that I am failing to "acknowledge the existence" of such shitcoins, even though it seems quite problematic to be continuously trying to derail this thread in such direction, even while you are continuing to "see nothing wrong with that" blah blah blah.



Your actions and your posts frequently seem to undermine such supposed knowledge of such.


Sure.. it could just be that you are either stubborn or have an inability to try to stay topical in this thread.


And......? So what?  You seem to be misreading me if you believe that I conclude that shitcoins do not have any value, even if I conclude that bring them up in this thread is NOT topical and it tends to cost way more than any benefit that it brings, including the fact that you are more than free to talk about all the shitcoins that you love and their supposed value in some other thread in the forum.  Are there forum threads for that? and even if you don't use the forum, there are likely other social media locations too, such as twitter and reddit and likely other places to talk about such irrelevant (to this thread) nonsense.


Oh gawd!!!   

first of all you presume that I don't believe that shitcoins have value and then you make some other kind of nonsense assertion attempting to make an analogy.. Did I wake up in a parallel universe?  help... help.



Nobody is stopping you from "keeping an open mind" - just go do it somewhere else.   

 


Yes.. its a failure to either stay on topic or to respect the wishes of consensual matters of mostly staying away from shitcoins in this thread..except to either bash them or to make some bitcoin related observation that mostly would not be construed as pumping such baloney or ideas about supposed value that they might have (in theory).


Of course, this should be a place that allows for learning, but get the fuck out of here with wanting to bring up irrelevant and bullshit shitcoins.. .. why do I feel as if I might be repeating my lil selfie?

 



Yes, lots of us make mistakes in life..and sometimes we learn and other times it takes longer to learn... and surely sometimes we don't learn too, so there are a lot of variations of what might happen whether it is falling or making some other kinds of mistakes.. and hopefully such discussions are mostly involving bitcoin, even while other topics are surely tolerated and accepted in this thread as long as you are not devolving into shitcoin pumping or some other kind of shill pumping posts... which largely tend to be irritating rather than anything that members might want to discuss in this here thread.. .seems to me.

I hope.


Ok... I will subscribe to your reverse psychology.

You will thank me later.   


Ok..  fair enough...

I still get the sense that your "gut feelings" were likely just coincidences, and if we had a pump to $75k in the same period, instead of a dump to $45,700, you would have been proclaiming the same thing about the supposed relevance of your gut feeling.. that is unless you have now converted to actual soothsayer status, and you do not seem to be saying that.. yet.

 

Get the fuck out of here, you twat.

 


Who cares about what shitcoin might be relatively better than another shitcoin.. it is not relevant to this thread unless you can somehow tie it in to discussions of king daddy without pumping the nonsense and causing us to deviate from otherwise important topics, ie..   how much we do not like Elon, at the moment... .. cue save the rf..

This time is for real...?

Glad that I was able to hear that so that, and especially from such a credible source that knows about math, science and even writes and performs sing songs.  This way,  I will strive to not continue to do what I have been doing.

Desperate times call for desperate measures... and hopefully this works out for everyone.

Good luck peeps... some are going to need it more than others.. so it seems.

 


I thought that we already had more than a $10k correction.  My mathematical calculation of $64,895 - $45,700 is $19,195... Surely nothing to sneeze at, especially since the amount of correction is very close to the whole value of the peak of the price of bitcoin in late 2017 and we had not surpassed that value again until December 2020.

Maybe some amazingness to the quantity of numbers, even though pondering the matter in terms of percentages would probably be a bit more realistic in terms of attempting to grasp material significance of such price moves (whether Downity or otherwise).


Shouldn't be a BIG deal for you anyhow, Elwar.  We are priced right around what you had considered to be the top of this cycle, so what's the BIGGIE... sure this cycle ended up being nearly $15k greater than what you had anticipated, but no one can get the cycle exactly correct, so if you changed your mind, to expect even higher prices then wouldn't you just be overly setting yourself up for unnecessary and invented disappointment?  #justaskin



I suppose that there are a few reasons why you are right about this generalization point, and surely bitcoin OGs will have ONLY transgressed newbie status if they have engaged in a sufficient amount of HODLing in order to have allowed their BTC holdings to advance into considerable profits.

There may well be some bitcoin OGs who did not get some of the memos regarding mostly either doing nothing, such as HODLing or perhaps using some extra cashflow (if any) to buy on dips.. to the extent even needed.

Sure newbs are going to fit a couple of categories because even those who might have average BTC costs of under $20k may end up getting overly tempted to play the market because they may feel that they did not have had enough time to stack a large enough stash to their comfort level.  Surely, a lot of newbs will have some struggles in their attempts to prepare for both UPpity and DOWNity and to attempt to maintain a budget that mostly does not run out of cash and then resorting to HODL in the event that cashflow falls short during the crash period (rather than selling to generate cash - which many times is going to be problematic to attempt to accomplish during a crash and also largely appreciating that bitcoin remains in a bull market, until a large passage of time might cause confirmation that BTC no longer is in a bull market).  Probably all of these matters are much more difficult for anyone who had been very aggressive with investing in recent times and has largely run out of cash, even though the correction has ONLY been 30%, so far.. not saying that it will necessarily be greater, but there are surely no guarantees that the bottom is in after only a day outside of the $45,700 dippening and NOT really staying down there for very long (not that we have to, but still)....



Many of us longer-termers do not like the idea of selling on dips, especially during a bull market, and there seems to ONLY be rare circumstances that such selling on dips would work out including if it ends up that we are not in the bull market that we expect our lil selfies to be.       does not seem likely but it's possible.


We should all (that's the royal we, of course) just tell you to fuck off, but hey, you are not a bad guy, generally speaking, so there is that, too.   

Don't have too much funzies in your drunken stupor that might cause you to do anything that you would not be willing to disclose herein, even considering opsec obfuscation matters...... hahahahaha


Oh gawd.. you are surely a humble bumble today richy_t for some strange reason.

 

A joke is not as much fun if it is not presented in a kind of serious way, and of course, we seem to be really in the middle of the chart, which is not really a very critical^tm place, even if some folks might consider our current BTC price location as critical^tm - we are largely still at the top of the price range - especially if we zoom out even with about a 30% correction when we went down (the so far trough) to $45,700 in the past 24 hours-ish.

Oh my ivomm.. you have a lot of doosies in this post...

And just to agree with you, I would like to say thank you so much to the USA government for saving us from the BIG meanies.. by snuffing that black undeserving meanie Arthur Hayes and his little anti-bitcoin gang... yeah, Arthur even looks as if he is greedy and taking advantage of udder peeps.

yeah right...  


Some of us get so god-damned attached to whether the BTC price is moving too much in one direction or another that we start to believe that traditional financial governmental overreach is going to be our savior and solution.


rrrrrrriiiiiiiiggggggghhhhhtttttttttt.

 




Have you been hanging out with the old Torque?  finding a conspiracy in every little thing because you are so damned anxious for the BTC price not to correct and not to go sideways and if the price is NOT going UP every little second, you believe that their is some kind of "manipulation" that is greater than other industries?  Even Torque seems to have lighted up in recent years about some of that previously over-focused manipulation nonsensical assertions.



Of course they are not.. but do you even believe that a majority of shitcoiner insiders are going to really know if they are going to be successful with their various bullshit.. sure some aspects are probably decently orchestrated, but even some of the insiders are likely reckt from time to time too, even though they likely are stacking the cards in order to profit in a vast array of scenarios moreso than regular joe blows.   



So?  We have already seen this stuff and just variations of earlier themes.. which might drag down BTC prices and might not...   hard to really know.. but we should not be allowing the crap to get us worked up or distracted, right?



When bitcoin is ready to go up, it is quite likely that no one is going to be able to do anything about it. And, sure this cycle may have already topped off.. yet in any event, we know that there are a variety of different players that are going to try to push bitcoin's price down as far as they can and to keep it down for as long as they can, but again that is a BIG so fucking what because they may or may not be successful in such efforts, and then at some point they may well lose such battle.  We have seen the loss of such battles to keep BTC down multiple times in the past, and sure whether this time will be successful or not should not get any of us too worked up because each of us longer term bitcoiners should well be prepared for BTC price movements in either direction and to go in either direction contrary to our own wishes and beliefs.. That kind of shit happens, especially during a war... a largely silent war, but still.. war it is and war it has been..,. and we are lucky in a lot of respects that bitcoin has so far been doing quite well in such war... even while past performance does not guarantee future results, even while it can give us some indications of what kinds of scenarios are more probable and try to prepare our lil selfies within realism rather than just making shit up because we do not like the way the BTC's price is going.. we have not even really had any 30% plus correction this cycle.. and so many peeps are concluding that 30% plus is not possible.. blah blah blah.. and yeah, there may be some udder peeps that would like to show that 30%, 50% and even greater than 50% are quite possible, whether sustainable or not might be another story.



Really great when peeps are trying to say that there is some kind of pattern to the various shitcoin pumps.,. right?  that's living in a fantasy to believe that some kind of pattern might play out in the future merely because it may have been noticed in the past.. especially when it comes to attempting to predict how shitcoins may or may not affect the price dynamics of king daddy.




Now you know what shitcoins are going to do?  That is even harder to figure out than what bitcoin is likely to do, and gosh I doubt that we have very great odds of being able to say in either direction beyond 50/50.. so what else is new?

It does seem quite convincingly that bitcoin remains in a bull market, so that would kind of give some credibility to where bitcoin is likely to go in the longer term.. such as 3-9 months from now, but I doubt that the fact that bitcoin has largely been bouncing and slanting uppity for the past 3.5 months between $42k and $65k gives us any kind of meaningful ability to say what it might next or even in the next couple of legs (or if there will be legs).



Frequently "for sure" language remains quite dangerous and might be a sign that you may well need to take a few chips off the table in order to not be so vulnerable to ONLY one direction, whether we are talking about the price direction of bitcoin or how shitcoins might play out in connection to whatever king daddy might end up doing.  Hopefully you have not been employing leverage in recent times to have to rely on such expectations that you have... and sure peeps can leverage in a lot of ways that cause them to be overly reliant on one direction over another direction... so hopefully, that is not what is going on with your presentation regarding what you expect to happen in bitcoin or shitcoinlandia in the coming months to half year or whatever timeline you are attempting to figure out.


Yes.. someone with a name like JohnnyUranus should get excited about a thing like that.

@Yefi... a day behind....  

Well, golly gee, that seems quite imprecise bunny...

We need better numerology that would put the price at $123,456,789.01

I like that much moar better, and to me, it just seems better to specify exact happiness reaching thresholds.



Surely seems like a big wasteful use of money for any adult reasonable and prudent person.. that's for sure.... and not very frugal, either.

seems da @bunny is a not very good role model.   

must +1WO merit you for that one, Dabs.


Actually, I have heard some seemingly reasonable bitcoiners making assertions that bitcoin is NOT going to be too ready to pump prior to GBTC getting the fuck back in line with proper BTC prices, and surely it should NOT need to get back to zero or even within a percentage or two from where it "should be", but almost anyone can  appreciate that the 15% to 18% negative premium is just "out of line" and causing some BTC price dynamic tensions - even if it is just one of the factors to account in current times.

On the other hand, sometimes, there could be forces that would like to blow GBTC and Barry Silbert the fuck up, and could manipulate BTC prices in order to punish them beyond any kind of reasonable expectations, and that is kind of what can happen with free markets and sometimes big players who want to take advantage of "awkward situations" and make some money at the expense of somebody else (including rich peeps taking money from other rich peeps... hahahahahaha.,.. pee pare ur lil selfies for any kind of scenario that could play out from where we be at and where we might be going.. this is not bat country anymore...).


Sure Grayscale is likely a pretty BIG ass player, but it is likely NOT good for your health - either financially or psychologically to presume that even BIGGER players might want to attempt to teach them a lesson, whether successful or not might be another story.


Is that a selfie, Torque?

 

Opsec, dude.. Opsec.

 

You will thank me later.


I doubt that there is anyone who is realistically looking at historical BTC price performance who is actually saying or even projecting that BTC is going to be smooth or without corrections or without significant underperformances of the 2x or 3x trajectories, but even your anticipating of something like $3.3 million by 2025  would be well within a variety of 2x trajectories even if the before and after years happen to fall below such 2x trajectories.

Gosh, I did not realize that the only disadvantage of that piece of shit was a lack of limited supply.

You mean that Eth is otherwise similar to bitcoin except for its lack of a limited supply?  

Why is there so many tendencies for guys in this here thread to be giving benefits of doubt to pieces of shit, such as ethereum?  Or is it just me?  (this last question is rhetorical.. but sure, I understand that shitcoiners are going to want to answer my last questions and want to pump their shit in this here otherwise lovely (#nohomo) thread and act like they aren't)


That does not seem sustainable for very long to me, even if we are able to make such historical claims and even if it might end up continuing to happen for a few more years after we trajectory it out.. maybe past this cycle and the next couple of cycles.. perhaps?  perhaps?


Edit:  Oh looks like AlcoHoDL trajectored out the annual doubling to help provide some kinds of guidance and to ground us in terms of the realisticness of such annual doubling sustainability possibilities.

That's a pretty damned old chart, isn't it?

You could not find anything more contemporary than late 2019 in order that we (those of us looking) could actually see how the actual numbers plot out on such a chart after late 2019?

Sure there is some historical value in showing that historical calculations (and even projections) end up playing out within reasonable parameters of their projections, but there is also value in seeing the actual data regarding how current (after late 2019) BTC price dynamics fit into that kind of a chart.


Generally speaking, serious tends to be good, and emotional tends to be not too good.. especially when it comes to certain kinds of financial considerations...

hahahahaha

"itching"   I like it.

Don't pull such switch too soon, and don't wait too long, either. I am glad that I could throw in my two cents..

You fuck.


hahahahaha

By the way, 208-week moving average crossing into $12,300 - not that you give too many shits about my own personal "worse case scenario" metric that I continue to like to throw out there into the bitcoin discussions from time to time for funzies when it seems somewhat relevant and I have not posted the actual seemingly ever increasing number for a while.

Surely, it could be interpreted as humor, even though there are real world impacts that come from such strange comments...

You must be quoting from the Onion, no?

but i dont know anything anyway sooo im oout xD
[/quote]

Well, that should go without needing to actually say it, no?


You did not even use "nohomo", so it is good to make negative inferences from your failure/refusal to properly disclaim.   

As a Legendary, you should know better!!!!!!

 

It's good practice to hold Legendaries to a higher standard.  hahahahahaha


Calls for a pee pic, no?   

Oh gawd... how ridiculous can you be?

Yes, you can use a piece of shitcoin to transact in the short term, and if you can ongoingly keep such access to such coin for such back up purposes of transacting, then there may well be no problem with that.  Having options should not be anything that any of us would be consider to be a bad thing, so if there might be circumstances that if you want to buy something and doge coin happens to be the best way to accomplish that at that particular moment whether it is speed or fees or privacy or any other considerations, then nothing wrong with having that option if it exists, but still likely does not suggest that such system is better than bitcoin, even if it might have some short term measurements that might be better than bitcoin for a certain transaction or certain kinds of transactions at a specific point in time.

Anyhow, franky.. seems that your self-proclaimed assertion of "utility" is selective and misleading, and it even comes off as you don't even fucking understand what bitcoin is - after so many years of making a variety of posts in this forum, and maybe saying something smart every 1/100th of the time. (am I being too generous? nohomo)

 


Shows that you still are failing and refusing to really recognize and appreciate what gives value to bitcoin and why every single coin out there is likely lacking in legitimacy, even if there might be some attributes that bitcoin can later take from them in terms of their having had served as a test bed to figure out what might either be able to be built upon bitcoin or pegged to it in some kind of way as a second, third, forth, fifth etc layer.



Yes, you do have a confusing way of categorizing "legit" and hopefully some of your muddy thinking is neither hurting yourself or others in their attempts to find value in where you draw your categorical lines... and your willingness to grant benefit of the doubt to various shitcoins.


To me, it seems much safer to just categorize bitcoin as legit and various projects that are either built upon bitcoin or attempting to peg to bitcoin without printing their own token as legit, and consider the rest as not legitimate.

Sure there might be some areas in which such definition of "legit" might be somewhat ambiguous, but it surely does not seem that ethereum (or almost anything building upon it or even imitating it), dogecoin, or the various bcashes to be legit, even though we can surely learn from them and their various projects, so the fact that we end up learning from them or being able to take some of their systems into bitcoin or even maybe some of those projects might get pegged to bitcoin in the future, but it still does not seem to be a good practice to be suggesting them to be legit merely because bitcoin might have already been advantaged by some of their "innovations" or that they might be useful as learning tools in the future.

I am starting to feel dirty by talking about these pieces of shit so much in this thread.. sorry guys, but jesus fucking christ, why are supposed bitcoiners wanting to ongoingly present shitcoins in this thread and engaging in ongoing slippery-slope posting behaviors by suggesting that they are "legit" or that they have some kind of positive attributions (or contributions) in any way? .. fuck that.

I largely agree with you lightfoot, but your last sentence summary causes you to come off as more pessimistic than necessary.

Many of us longer term bitcoiners recognize and appreciate that Gresham's law is an actual dynamic that causes value to ultimately flow into the products, goods, services, assets that are the most valuable including a certain amount of gravitation towards assets that are going to retain value with the passage of time - even though many of us do need to regularly consume, if we have ways to structure our own situations that it is feasible to defer some of our gratification, many of us are going to recognize the value of bitcoin and even start to direct portions of our value storage into bitcoin and such ongoing cascading effects are likely to be measurable in very revolutionary wealth transferring kinds of ways, even if a bit more difficult to measure in the shorter term or even on the individual level.. because there are going to continue to be a lot of normies and regular joe blows who do not "get it" and some normie peeps just have a lot of trouble employing delayed gratification, even if it would be to their advantage to do so.. even in very small amounts.. they cannot do it, and many of our systems have provided short term rewards to them for not employing deferred gratification and they might not end up realizing the degree of their fuck up until it is either too late to reverse it or they just cannot bring their lil selfies out of their pattern of their behaviors even though on a logical level they realize that it would be for their own good to attempt to employ greater amounts of deferred gratification.


I will grant you that ETH may well go to $10k or $20k in the near future, yet any investment (if we can stretch our imaginations to consider ETH in such category) has to consider a variety of downside scenarios that cause it to be a very bad place to gamble, even if your goal might be to use it in a way to stack more BTC.

So, proclaiming that you are using ETH in order to be able to stack more BTC seems to be on quite pie in the sky speculation - even though I know that even my commenting on your intentions in terms of a piece of crap has some invitation to further talking about such nonsense here - instead of just moving the conversation to another thread in which people actually believe that there is any kind of need to have some of their value (that would likely be better placed in BTC) to be placed in gambling practices. 

By the way, I can somewhat "accept" that peeps should be allowed to gamble because they are going to do it anyhow, if they otherwise have their cashflow in order (including having their BTC stash in order) and the extra gambling is just a relatively small amount of their value, just for funzies.. so I can appreciate those kinds of approaches rather than talking about ETH and taking it seriously, even if many of us recognize and appreciate that there are a lot of dumb fucks in the world that are likely to cause ETH to pump the fuck beyond its value (like it already has done) and including our lil selfies into that system just seems like a big ass waste of time, except maybe if it is really small amounts of value and peeps already got their shit in order (which frequently peeps do not sufficiently got their shit in order to be playing around with crap like ethereum or any of the other scams that are connected to it - even while recognizing and accepting that it may well continue to pump).

You are correct, machasm.

Many of us likely realize that "smart money" does end up proven to be "not very smart" after many years, but on a contemporary basis, we surely might NOT be able to accurately assess which money happens to be smarter than other money, even if we might have some decent suspicions but the evidence is not always going to be unambiguous to conclude which is which.


I sometimes wonder why supposedly long-termers like you, somac, get so delusional about exchanges or entities that are trying to avoid various kinds of governmental oversight and then to suggest that they are either conspiring with governments or that they are fucking over the bitcoin because they are manipulating it too much through their attempts at wild, wild west operations.

Sure, maybe we don't really disagree in the end about a certain need for standards, but still some of these seemingly cheering on of government crackdowns or overly attempting to describe the exchanges with wild, wild west as the villians seems to be just confusing matters rather than really attempting to accept a certain amount of the wild wild west dynamics that are likely existing with these various systems including overly jumping on the bashing of the exchanges that attempt to operate outside of some of the ongoing jurisdictional overreaching dynamics that we get from certain countries, too.

Kind of reminds me about how anti-bitfinex so many folks were in 2016, especially around the time of their supposed hackening in about August, and sure some of the bitfinex story does not really add up either, but sometimes the conspiracy theories including the bashing on USDT get carried to similar extremes that seem to be likely assuming way more bad faith from the entities that are actually having quite a few troubles attempting to operate without getting beat up by governmental overreach, and sure even BTC-E that tried for quite a long time to continue to operate without falling into any jurisdiction (kind of like bitcoin itself) got accused of a lot of insider corruption matters that may or may not be true and at the same time quite a few users of their system were not able to get their coins back, and may well not have been caused by the actual operators - but really been a result of various governmental overreach and some of the users who end up losing their coins (yours truly included) are not really going to end up knowing the full story but many of us should be somewhat skeptical of some of the sources that seem to presume that the exchange operators were evil, corrupt, manipulators, greedy, blah blah blah.. rather than trying to actually contributing to the bitcoin community (while profiting and sometimes getting involved in shitcoins along the way too.. which is not illegal either, even though some of us might choose not to get involved in shitcoins or to operate businesses that allow leverage, but still there are varying ways to operate businesses, without presuming evilness to such operators without having enough information or likely even agreeing too much with some of the FUD spin).

Sure, each of us may have differing ways of attempting to assess whatever announcements had been made, so for example, if BTC prices had NOT really gone below $55k (just a day or two ago, I will remind you), then people might have been proclaiming that Saylor et al is a genius for buying on the dip, blah blah blah.. because in some sense, the price of $55k-ish could be considered a dip from $59k-ish or a dip from $64,895-ish.

So, sure there could be some getting in digs for Saylor to be announcing that his company "recently" bought $10million or $20million or whatever at a price that is  higher than the current price, but still there could be some company internal dynamics that Saylor just announces whenever his "btc buying department" has put the numbers together in order that he does not misstate what his company has done in "recent times" which just happens to coincide with a dip or a before the dip or an after the dip or whenever such data has been put together in order that it happens to be ready for disclosure (even if he might be disclosing way more frequently than is even necessary to "keep everyone happy"), Saylor et al has seemed to have taken an approach that seems to be pretty damned frequent disclosures, and just let the chips fall where they will.

Even Saylor et al, may become a bit frustrated (perhaps?) if his company keeps buying, keeps announcing that they are buying, but the BTC price keeps ongoingly cascadingly falling lower than his buy price on a regular basis, and none of us (even Saylor) can know when the correction is over until perhaps when it has recovered sufficiently enough to make it clear that the correction is over... sometimes taking three years or so before the downward cascading ends.. hopefully such 3 year downward cascading is not happening at this time, but who knows?  Nothing is guaranteed in bitcoinlandia even if it seems very likely that we are currently in the middle of a bull run rather than at the end of a bullrun, but we cannot even know that until the whole matter plays out which actually can take a year or longer to even identify where we are at or to revise a previous assessment of where we thought we were and where we actually think that we are based on updated data.

Of course the shitshow of ethereum et al is so god damned frustrating on an ongoing basis to see the various levels of bullshit pump and dump projects, and so many of us just wished that they would hurry the fuck up with this imminent^tm transition to POS that has been being promised from that smoke and mirrors scam project since about 2016, but for some reason, they are continuing to project such best shit in the world pie in the sky vaporware transition into the future. and it never happens and how long can they keep the pyramid scheme or ponzi (or whatever other descriptives apply) going.

People are both greedy and gullible as fuck, so sure, the various ethereum marketers and scammers have made enough money (it seems) to be able to keep the scams going for a hell of a long time, 15 to 30 years does not seem unobtainable, because they can continue to suck off the teet of bitcoin's security and delude the ongoing stream of new adopters into their every shifting new ways to make money that are going to "change the world" blah blah blah..

And, I am not even saying that there are not some innovations on ethereum or related to ethereum in terms of creative (and gamification) ways to ongoingly use various technical mechanisms to part normies from their money and even allowing for some of those normies to get rich too through their ongoing injection of cash and likely ongoing confusing various regulators in such a way that the smoke and mirror schemes can go and go and go... of course, until they don't and of course, when momentum changes, there can be some additional ruthelessness that plays out when some of the froth gets corrected out from time to time (and not even sure when those various harsh and punishing corrections will be).

Seems to me that over the past 9 months or so, Saylor (in terms of speaking on behalf of Microstrategies) has been unambiguously clear that he is bullish as fuck about bitcoin and he provided many opportunities (which would include his fairly regular reports about what microstrategies is doing regarding buying bitcoin) that if anything he is becoming more and more bullish about bitcoin with the passage of time and his investment into bitcoin is long term rather than short or medium term and not giving shits about dips because likely in the longer term (whether it takes 5 years or maybe even longer) that it is all going to work out for him and his company to be leveraged (or even over leveraged in bitcoin) in spite of possible short to medium term BTC price movements.. And for sure, these 25%-ish price corrections (even if he did not buy at the actual dip) do not challenge bitcoin's investment thesis in any kind of meaningful way because they are even quite smaller than the size of price corrections that have historically taken place whether we are referring to size of correction or even how long the price correction drags out.


Sure, if BTC prices were to go below his average purchase price and also stay below his average purchase price for a considerable amount of time (even if he were to keep buying if the BTC price were to go below $20k, for example), he may well have to reconsider some of his approach to being so aggressive about BTC, including whether backlash from shareholders might be resulting in attention from regulators, lawsuits, threats to his executive position or even if the cashflow from his regular company business is not sufficient to service the debt that was issued, but still seems to me that Saylor has gone quite overboard in ongoingy disclosing his BTC approach, so  surely shareholders or anyone else have that information and should be able to bail if they do not agree with the philosophy or they are shaken by short term performance numbers.

Hahahaha

I doubt that they (seeming policies led by Saylor) are giving too many shits about whether BTC prices are dipping or not when they buy their monthly-ish installations of BTC (and I doubt that they are even necessarily waiting for the month to play out in the event that they were to get extra cashflows during the month, we likely can appreciate where they might be putting that extra cashflow and just reporting it on a monthly basis or whatever). 

So, surely a lot of normies get all worked up about dollar cost average buying in such a way that the average price per coin is shooting way up, but Saylor et al, seems to give few to no shits about that.   By the way, I personally believe that normies cannot really emulate Saylor's behavior exactly, unless they happen to have excessive regular cashflows, but still Saylor's behavior should demonstrate for any fence sitters (whether institutions or individuals) that some bitcoin enlightened players are not going to be having any mercy to be waiting around for the price to drop when they are buying their bitcoin, even if it causes their average dollar price per BTC to go up or even more than double because they are ongoingly buying at almost any price.. so fence sitters are likely going to be damaged considerably if they don't rectify their fence sitting behaviors and put systems in place that they can start getting a bitcoin stake, sooner rather than later.
 
Remember the first installation of Saylor et al had achieved average BTC prices of less than $10k, and then the next one brought the average to $11,111.11 (yes it seems fictional.. and maybe it is, I don't know, just remember that number for some strange reason), and then they keep buying at whatever is the price of the day/week in which they are buying which may or may not end up being a "dip".. so little by little their average price per BTC has gone up while the size of their stash has gone up too... and yes, it is nice to be able to both see that their average price per BTC is now $24,403, they have made several purchases at various points in the $50ks (high, low, middle, whatever the BTC price happens to be in the period that they were buying), and they just keep plodding along with either a vision that we are not at a price top or maybe not even caring if we might be at a top since their investment timeline is way into the future - perhaps even beyond the timeline of their servicing of their couple of 5 year bonds - which they can likely service, even if BTC prices were to drop by 80% or whatever (which also does not seem to be too likely in our current BTC price posturing situation).