Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[aesma]

a 3 million dollars BTC in 2025 seems lovely (especially for someone like me with a small stash) however I fear it would mostly mean the dollar is worthless by then. Not in a "but it's already worthless" kind of way, but as in "you need stacks of 1000$ bills to buy a baguette".

Doing my daily look at the mempool and the damn thing is near empty. 1 sat fees are now being processed now, so a great time to make some transactions.

Curious about ETH strength of late, I take a look at their mempool. Full, massivily full, and has been since the start of this year. Of course high fees are the norm but I think what this also says is that there is a tonne of consistant demand out there on their network, BTC looks like a ghost town in comparison. Now I realise this is because their network is clogged up with all sorts of silly shit (and BTC hash has increased), but if this demand is maintained (and I'm sure no one here wants to hear this), we have to consider the very likely possibility that ETH will eventually beat out BTC for the number one spot.

Yes ETH is a centralized shitcoin and a mess in so many ways, but nobody seems to care about that. The attitude is "well they'll solve all those problems with future updates". Maybe they will, maybe they won't. Either way I don't think it matters. ETH has their network effect, just like BTC does, there will be no ETH killer, but with all the extra shit that is flooding their network as time goes on, how could it not beat BTC, the digital gold that everyone just hodls but doesn't do much else with.

I won't be investing in it, but also don't want to be disappointed when (if) it does unseat BTC. I don't think it will be able to take BTC place this cycle either, but next on, maybe.

I hope I am wrong.

I think ETH has its uses but I must say as the price goes up and the fees go crazy, it seems less useful, so it could be a bit like bitcoin, without the advantage of the limited supply.

Gosh, I did not realize that the only disadvantage of that piece of shit was a lack of limited supply.

Don't worry I'm not into ETH, I own one that I got for 100$ I think. I used to mine it of course before the DAO thing.

Ethereum brought dapps and smart contracts, which are interesting concepts. If only to prove they allow all kinds of scams of course.

I have not delved too much into its governance etc. since I'm not into it so don't take my posts as endorsing altcoins in any way. I'm just saying if there is no limit to the supply of a coin, I don't really want to hear about it (big premine is also bad but I forgot about that in the case of ethereum). I mostly don't hear/read about alts that do have a limited supply either, though. It would be a full time job.

With that said, I know people who do that work and make good money/BTC out of it. Doesn't mean they believe in any alt, but they believe in making dough out of them ! I would probably be bad at it and end up holding bags of shitcoins, knowing myself.

[somac.]

Yes ETH is a centralized shitcoin and a mess in so many ways, but nobody seems to care about that. The attitude is "well they'll solve all those problems with future updates". Maybe they will, maybe they won't. Either way I don't think it matters. ETH has their network effect, just like BTC does, there will be no ETH killer, but with all the extra shit that is flooding their network as time goes on, how could it not beat BTC, the digital gold that everyone just hodls but doesn't do much else with.

I won't be investing in it, but also don't want to be disappointed when (if) it does unseat BTC. I don't think it will be able to take BTC place this cycle either, but next on, maybe.

If you think that a centralized mess of a shitcoin with a 90M pre-mine and currently $50-500 transaction fees will ever "overtake" BTC, then you are delusional. And POS will be a big fail.

It does make you wonder where the term "smart money" comes from?
Doesn't seem that smart to me.

You are correct, machasm.

Many of us likely realize that "smart money" does end up proven to be "not very smart" after many years, but on a contemporary basis, we surely might NOT be able to accurately assess which money happens to be smarter than other money, even if we might have some decent suspicions but the evidence is not always going to be unambiguous to conclude which is which.

Isn't it a Chinese exchange run offshore.

Edit: from the wiki

Binance was founded by Changpeng Zhao, a developer who had previously created high frequency trading software. Binance was initially based in China, but later moved out of China due to China's increasing regulation of cryptocurrency.

These guys are as dodgy as Bitmex, remember when the SEC got onto them and the Barts ceased and then the BTC price went up and never looked back. Binance has taken over their role I suspect. It makes you wonder if these exchanges get pressured by certain authorities to use there opaqueness to prevent BTC growth.

Takes tin foil hat off.

I sometimes wonder why supposedly long-termers like you, somac, get so delusional about exchanges or entities that are trying to avoid various kinds of governmental oversight and then to suggest that they are either conspiring with governments or that they are fucking over the bitcoin because they are manipulating it too much through their attempts at wild, wild west operations.

Sure, maybe we don't really disagree in the end about a certain need for standards, but still some of these seemingly cheering on of government crackdowns or overly attempting to describe the exchanges with wild, wild west as the villians seems to be just confusing matters rather than really attempting to accept a certain amount of the wild wild west dynamics that are likely existing with these various systems including overly jumping on the bashing of the exchanges that attempt to operate outside of some of the ongoing jurisdictional overreaching dynamics that we get from certain countries, too.

Kind of reminds me about how anti-bitfinex so many folks were in 2016, especially around the time of their supposed hackening in about August, and sure some of the bitfinex story does not really add up either, but sometimes the conspiracy theories including the bashing on USDT get carried to similar extremes that seem to be likely assuming way more bad faith from the entities that are actually having quite a few troubles attempting to operate without getting beat up by governmental overreach, and sure even BTC-E that tried for quite a long time to continue to operate without falling into any jurisdiction (kind of like bitcoin itself) got accused of a lot of insider corruption matters that may or may not be true and at the same time quite a few users of their system were not able to get their coins back, and may well not have been caused by the actual operators - but really been a result of various governmental overreach and some of the users who end up losing their coins (yours truly included) are not really going to end up knowing the full story but many of us should be somewhat skeptical of some of the sources that seem to presume that the exchange operators were evil, corrupt, manipulators, greedy, blah blah blah.. rather than trying to actually contributing to the bitcoin community (while profiting and sometimes getting involved in shitcoins along the way too.. which is not illegal either, even though some of us might choose not to get involved in shitcoins or to operate businesses that allow leverage, but still there are varying ways to operate businesses, without presuming evilness to such operators without having enough information or likely even agreeing too much with some of the FUD spin).

Obviosuly you never heard of Bitmex. Does the word "Bart" mean anything to you.

[Arriemoller]

And, what's planking?

To me, it looks like a push-up, but you don't go down. You just hold your position for time.

Like, push-up, 1 ... then count to 30 but don't move..

When you can do that for 3 minutes straight, it's time to ask a little kid to hop on your back and try it again. You know, weighted planking.

thanks

Ill try it some day.

[rdbase]

Oh f*ck what a screwed up day ,
coinbase announcing listing of Douche coin *pun intended* so this is what will pump up the crypto markets?
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5337324.0
Kill me now.

I don't see it budge yet that sh*t coin is up 8% from this. Market manipulation at it's finest people.

And King of the Douches just stirred up the sh*t on his twitter.


Sit back & watch the idiocy unfold.

[Arriemoller]

So, I wrote this in the dudes competition thread "And thank you very much for doing this your dudenes, I really like the nostalgic feel."
And it got deleted, WTF! Do they have retarded mods outside this thread? And what possible rule could that have breached?

[BobLawblaw]

This guy is a super-duper asshole.

[BitcoinBunny]

So, I wrote this in the dudes competition thread "And thank you very much for doing this your dudenes, I really like the nostalgic feel."
And it got deleted, WTF! Do they have retarded mods outside this thread? And what possible rule could that have breached?

Your post consumed too much fossil energy. 

[JayJuanGee]

Every time Bitcoin price fell to the low $54000 and then again pulled back, how long the uptrend will take resume?
Bulls might busy on other side, unless the bulls bought the dips won't see $60K..

There's constant uptrend, and also outflow from exchanges.
Just these regular dumps to certain ranges start to smell fishy, but it can't go on forever.
Some characters take advantage of some kind of manipulation, and regarding the price and periodic aspect, i think it's about accumulation.
More on the conspiracy side, regularly pulling down bitcoin to make it look unprofitable could also be an explanation - could be, but that's all conspiracy theory for sure.

About these dumps, I think it is true - all of it. The same thing happened with 9K-10K range resistance for quite a few months. Now it is slightly different, but not that much. Previously, we had barts every other day, which I suppose were thanks to Bitmex. This was openly and blatantly demonstrated with no fear of being punished until CFTC busted them.

Oh my ivomm.. you have a lot of doosies in this post...

And just to agree with you, I would like to say thank you so much to the USA government for saving us from the BIG meanies.. by snuffing that black undeserving meanie Arthur Hayes and his little anti-bitcoin gang... yeah, Arthur even looks as if he is greedy and taking advantage of udder peeps.

yeah right...  


Some of us get so god-damned attached to whether the BTC price is moving too much in one direction or another that we start to believe that traditional financial governmental overreach is going to be our savior and solution.


rrrrrrriiiiiiiiggggggghhhhhtttttttttt.

 

Now we have a different pattern, which repeats each day around the same hours. It is like the hat symbol "^". 12 hours of pumping and harvesting longs and then 12 hours of dumping and harvesting shorts.

Have you been hanging out with the old Torque?  finding a conspiracy in every little thing because you are so damned anxious for the BTC price not to correct and not to go sideways and if the price is NOT going UP every little second, you believe that their is some kind of "manipulation" that is greater than other industries?  Even Torque seems to have lighted up in recent years about some of that previously over-focused manipulation nonsensical assertions.

But the other theories are also valid in one way or another. The shitcoin pumps are not an accident.

Of course they are not.. but do you even believe that a majority of shitcoiner insiders are going to really know if they are going to be successful with their various bullshit.. sure some aspects are probably decently orchestrated, but even some of the insiders are likely reckt from time to time too, even though they likely are stacking the cards in order to profit in a vast array of scenarios moreso than regular joe blows.   

They are pre-planed months ago.

So?  We have already seen this stuff and just variations of earlier themes.. which might drag down BTC prices and might not...   hard to really know.. but we should not be allowing the crap to get us worked up or distracted, right?

For the fulfillment of this plan it is necessary that Bitcoin is not allowed to increase, but to be restrained artificially in some narrow 10% range.

When bitcoin is ready to go up, it is quite likely that no one is going to be able to do anything about it. And, sure this cycle may have already topped off.. yet in any event, we know that there are a variety of different players that are going to try to push bitcoin's price down as far as they can and to keep it down for as long as they can, but again that is a BIG so fucking what because they may or may not be successful in such efforts, and then at some point they may well lose such battle.  We have seen the loss of such battles to keep BTC down multiple times in the past, and sure whether this time will be successful or not should not get any of us too worked up because each of us longer term bitcoiners should well be prepared for BTC price movements in either direction and to go in either direction contrary to our own wishes and beliefs.. That kind of shit happens, especially during a war... a largely silent war, but still.. war it is and war it has been..,. and we are lucky in a lot of respects that bitcoin has so far been doing quite well in such war... even while past performance does not guarantee future results, even while it can give us some indications of what kinds of scenarios are more probable and try to prepare our lil selfies within realism rather than just making shit up because we do not like the way the BTC's price is going.. we have not even really had any 30% plus correction this cycle.. and so many peeps are concluding that 30% plus is not possible.. blah blah blah.. and yeah, there may be some udder peeps that would like to show that 30%, 50% and even greater than 50% are quite possible, whether sustainable or not might be another story.

That is why historically, the main shitcoin pumps are accompanied by Bitcoin sideways movement.

Really great when peeps are trying to say that there is some kind of pattern to the various shitcoin pumps.,. right?  that's living in a fantasy to believe that some kind of pattern might play out in the future merely because it may have been noticed in the past.. especially when it comes to attempting to predict how shitcoins may or may not affect the price dynamics of king daddy.

A strong Bitcoin breakout in either direction will put and end to their pumps prematurely and they won't get profits from dumping their own shitcoins on the exact price.

Now you know what shitcoins are going to do?  That is even harder to figure out than what bitcoin is likely to do, and gosh I doubt that we have very great odds of being able to say in either direction beyond 50/50.. so what else is new?

It does seem quite convincingly that bitcoin remains in a bull market, so that would kind of give some credibility to where bitcoin is likely to go in the longer term.. such as 3-9 months from now, but I doubt that the fact that bitcoin has largely been bouncing and slanting uppity for the past 3.5 months between $42k and $65k gives us any kind of meaningful ability to say what it might next or even in the next couple of legs (or if there will be legs).

In that case, their Bitcoin reserve must be depleted soon and Bitcoin will break the resistance heading to 100K. Every shitcoin will crash 50%+ by then for sure.

Frequently "for sure" language remains quite dangerous and might be a sign that you may well need to take a few chips off the table in order to not be so vulnerable to ONLY one direction, whether we are talking about the price direction of bitcoin or how shitcoins might play out in connection to whatever king daddy might end up doing.  Hopefully you have not been employing leverage in recent times to have to rely on such expectations that you have... and sure peeps can leverage in a lot of ways that cause them to be overly reliant on one direction over another direction... so hopefully, that is not what is going on with your presentation regarding what you expect to happen in bitcoin or shitcoinlandia in the coming months to half year or whatever timeline you are attempting to figure out.

big red dildo 

Yes.. someone with a name like JohnnyUranus should get excited about a thing like that.

[Paashaas]

Oh f*ck what a screwed up day ,
coinbase announcing listing of Douche coin *pun intended* so this is what will pump up the crypto markets?
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5337324.0
Kill me now.

I don't see it budge yet that sh*t coin is up 8% from this. Market manipulation at it's finest people.

And King of the Douches just stirred up the sh*t on his twitter.


Sit back & watch the idiocy unfold.

[JayJuanGee]

This is what happens when big players get in the game. Extreme market manipulation. This Tesla tweet is perfectly timed in an already dumped weak market. And whales will drive this thing now down to 40k levels. So the big boys can buy more. These ultra rich people are such disgusting. Never get enough.

The big boys are going to exit. A few people unfamiliar with the proven science of bitcoin's failure might trade it on the way down, but this is it. This really is the death of bitcoin.

This time is for real...?

Glad that I was able to hear that so that, and especially from such a credible source that knows about math, science and even writes and performs sing songs.  This way,  I will strive to not continue to do what I have been doing.

Desperate times call for desperate measures... and hopefully this works out for everyone.

Good luck peeps... some are going to need it more than others.. so it seems.

 

This is going to signal the Great Exit from bitcoin. By next week, $50k will be a pleasant dream away from the nightmare that's coming to bitcoin prices. Get ready for sub-$10,000 before the year is over.

Oh Proudhon, you are very optimist again. Not before the year is over but I would say that  we must get ready for sub $-10k before the May is over

I thought that we already had more than a $10k correction.  My mathematical calculation of $64,895 - $45,700 is $19,195... Surely nothing to sneeze at, especially since the amount of correction is very close to the whole value of the peak of the price of bitcoin in late 2017 and we had not surpassed that value again until December 2020.

Maybe some amazingness to the quantity of numbers, even though pondering the matter in terms of percentages would probably be a bit more realistic in terms of attempting to grasp material significance of such price moves (whether Downity or otherwise).

I had some expensive bills to pay...that I can only pay with bitcoin.

Screw that Musk guy.

Shouldn't be a BIG deal for you anyhow, Elwar.  We are priced right around what you had considered to be the top of this cycle, so what's the BIGGIE... sure this cycle ended up being nearly $15k greater than what you had anticipated, but no one can get the cycle exactly correct, so if you changed your mind, to expect even higher prices then wouldn't you just be overly setting yourself up for unnecessary and invented disappointment?  #justaskin

  go down where it hurts, low 30s? high 20s? Still, a number that would never affect a bitcoin OG, however the noobs get slaughtered, rightfully so.

I suppose that there are a few reasons why you are right about this generalization point, and surely bitcoin OGs will have ONLY transgressed newbie status if they have engaged in a sufficient amount of HODLing in order to have allowed their BTC holdings to advance into considerable profits.

There may well be some bitcoin OGs who did not get some of the memos regarding mostly either doing nothing, such as HODLing or perhaps using some extra cashflow (if any) to buy on dips.. to the extent even needed.

Sure newbs are going to fit a couple of categories because even those who might have average BTC costs of under $20k may end up getting overly tempted to play the market because they may feel that they did not have had enough time to stack a large enough stash to their comfort level.  Surely, a lot of newbs will have some struggles in their attempts to prepare for both UPpity and DOWNity and to attempt to maintain a budget that mostly does not run out of cash and then resorting to HODL in the event that cashflow falls short during the crash period (rather than selling to generate cash - which many times is going to be problematic to attempt to accomplish during a crash and also largely appreciating that bitcoin remains in a bull market, until a large passage of time might cause confirmation that BTC no longer is in a bull market).  Probably all of these matters are much more difficult for anyone who had been very aggressive with investing in recent times and has largely run out of cash, even though the correction has ONLY been 30%, so far.. not saying that it will necessarily be greater, but there are surely no guarantees that the bottom is in after only a day outside of the $45,700 dippening and NOT really staying down there for very long (not that we have to, but still)....

A few more dead-cat bounces because the playing field is set. And the field showed the 40s already. Selling now would be the stupidest move, and we know it.

Many of us longer-termers do not like the idea of selling on dips, especially during a bull market, and there seems to ONLY be rare circumstances that such selling on dips would work out including if it ends up that we are not in the bull market that we expect our lil selfies to be.       does not seem likely but it's possible.

Not gonna argue here much more, love you anyway. Maybe I'm wrong? Anyway, I'm not trading on my speculation thought. Coins are in deepest cold storage and I'm just traveling south France while drinking red wine. Life is good.

Cheers WO crew

We should all (that's the royal we, of course) just tell you to fuck off, but hey, you are not a bad guy, generally speaking, so there is that, too.   

Don't have too much funzies in your drunken stupor that might cause you to do anything that you would not be willing to disclose herein, even considering opsec obfuscation matters...... hahahahaha

Vitalik ......... I'd count him as definitely smarter than me (which is rare even if more deserve it).

Oh gawd.. you are surely a humble bumble today richy_t for some strange reason.

 

[Paashaas]

WoW, Israel has gone crazy.

Gaza is being under attack with a lot of air strikes, they have been attacking non-stop the whole night.

2 million Palestinians live in a besieged 365 km².

Waking up to see all those corpses from little children is disgusting.

 

[podyx]

Thoughts on Monero vs Ethereum?

[heslo]

Thoughts on Monero vs Ethereum?

I know alt coins aren't really discussed here but my 2 cents is I value Monero way way more than Eth. Monero has good devs, a strong focus on privacy and keeps is decentralised. Eth on the other hand is a jumbled mess, controlled by a select few and likes to experiment on the fly (not something I'd want any of my $$$ parked in)

[JayJuanGee]

Thoughts on Monero vs Ethereum?

Get the fuck out of here, you twat.

 

Thoughts on Monero vs Ethereum?

I know alt coins aren't really discussed here but my 2 cents is I value Monero way way more than Eth. Monero has good devs, a strong focus on privacy and keeps is decentralised. Eth on the other hand is a jumbled mess, controlled by a select few and likes to experiment on the fly (not something I'd want any of my $$$ parked in)

Who cares about what shitcoin might be relatively better than another shitcoin.. it is not relevant to this thread unless you can somehow tie it in to discussions of king daddy without pumping the nonsense and causing us to deviate from otherwise important topics, ie..   how much we do not like Elon, at the moment... .. cue save the rf..

[Hueristic]

Thoughts on Monero vs Ethereum?

Hahaha, my thought is I hope you brought a helmet. Lol







Edit: Looks like I didn't get your helmet to you fast enough, boy these guys are quick!

Thoughts on Monero vs Ethereum?

Get the fuck out of here, you twat.

 

[bitebits]

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1392974251011895300

[JayJuanGee]

Elon just pulled the curtain back. Sorry everyone. It's over. This really is the end. Bitcoin will never recover.

Where was Bitcoin before Elon Musk? It survived 10 years without him.
 
If all the governments can’t stop bitcoin his curtain pulling won’t do anything?

We will bounce back!!!

I hope.

This reminds me a small story...

“Once there was an old farmer, one day in early morning when he went to his fields he saw a young couple making love in his fields. He saw them and he started shouting. Couple came to him and begged “Please don’t shout and don’t tell anyone and we won’t come to your fields again”. But he insisted and said, “No, I will go and tell the whole village about it”.

Girl begged again and said he can do anything if he want but just don’t tell anyone. He excitedly agreed and said “Ok I won’t tell any one but I want to f*ck too”. He pulled down his pants and started making his little johny hard. But nothing happened he kept trying for over 10 minutes but nothing... there was no moment. He tried hard but that dead meat wasn’t going anywhere.

He angrily stood up pulled his pants and said “No, I have decided, I’m going to tell the whole village about it”

So I heard someone tried to sale his cars in Bitcoins but it didn’t go as planned.

Please don’t quote.

Ok... I will subscribe to your reverse psychology.

You will thank me later.   

1. "Could 1b USDT 'fix' the daily RSI?"
2. "Over how many days should this money be spread upon?"
3. "How many coins would someone have to sell to push the price down to 50k?".

My trusted analyst qualitatively hinted that I have too much focus on the short term.
Falling for FOMO am I? Where Lambo? Sh**, I should have bought doge...  

Don't say those kinds of things.

Signs that you are breaking, and our current BTC price predicament surely does not seem to be nearly as "bad" as you seem to be making it out to be.

My questions were looking ahead to an event similar to what we just had. I smelled a bit of bear hyperactivity, and I was guessing someone wasn't happy with the quantity and price of the cheep coinz they got.

I think Elon twatting was just the pretext for a bunch of mid-sized bearwhales to strike. I was trying to assay the average bear size in that particular bunch, and the quantity of cheep coinz that could be bought by the freshly minted tether, and approximately how fast would the (daily, weekly) RSI move as a consequence.

I am not breaking. I never owned a doge btw ;-)

Ok..  fair enough...

I still get the sense that your "gut feelings" were likely just coincidences, and if we had a pump to $75k in the same period, instead of a dump to $45,700, you would have been proclaiming the same thing about the supposed relevance of your gut feeling.. that is unless you have now converted to actual soothsayer status, and you do not seem to be saying that.. yet.

 

[jojo69]

"devs"

[heslo]

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1392974251011895300

lmao I still can't wrap my head around this. He surely is just trolling at this point

[Kylapoiss]

Pricewise, it's still good as f, isn't it? We'll shoot to six figures in no time.

In another note, I gained a level, yeehaw