Nope!!!!

You are wwwwwwrrrrrrooooooonnnnnnnngggggg!

I heard somewhere that we are getting $70k for sure by May 1 (May 1, is less than one month from now).  


So go suck an egg.



Huh?  No it wouldn't.  That thing probably does not even have a value of $.003.. so I hardly would find it nice to continue to be inflated 100x or more of its value, assuming that it might have some value.



Still does not seem to be a good thing to hope for, even if you personally profit from such nonsense.



Just because you get BTC for that crapola, does not seem to make it a BTC topic.  


Tether is hardly even comparable.. so get the fuck out of here with those false comparisons.


Agree about Ripple being nearly pure crap, but it still does not want to die.. and within the last week or two, they won a ruling against the US Gov.. so they have a bit of strut in their step recently.  Piece of crap.



It is funny that there is a kind of tendency for putting value in some of these matters, and that is a good point about the BTC testnet coins starting to gain value, richy.


Who cannot appreciate a moving bottom in these here times?

Edit:  I moved this post

Seems that you are being a wee bit ungrateful and greedy.

Sure when we were in the top of the range, $59k to $65k-ish, it just does not seem to be a place to hang out for very long, so from there, $59k to $65k-ish, there was a kind of imperative to either go up or go down.. because we just cannot be hanging out at the top of the range.

Who knows how long we could be hanging out in the $50ks (yes, I understand that we already spent a decent amount of time here in the past couple of months (or maybe just the past 6 weeks), but sure does seem like a long time hanging out in the $50ks, but this spot would not be a too bad of a place to even hang out for a few more months.  

We could call it stable prices.  People love stable prices, but sure it is NOT likely a long term place that we will be hanging out, even if it could be possible to hang out here for a decent amount of additional time in the medium term.. if we are calling 2-3 months "medium" term?


Surely you would have.. we had a lot of seeming reasonable peeps suggesting a couple of years or more just to get back above $10k - which surely seemed troublesome at the time, but NOT completely out of the realms of possible outcomes - despite some of our more convincing BTC price prediction models showing otherwise - and so those of us who had been meaningfully and adequately pee paring our lil selfies for UPpity were able to substantially and materially (even though it may be appearing to be ONLY on paper if we have not cashed out our lil selfies).

Even if our profits might ONLY seem to be on paper to some, many of us can really feel that we have materially and psychologically benefitted from the BTC price violence of 5x to 6x+ since September - even though it is no longer feeling like 6x+ at this particular moment... but there still feels some decent amount of knowing that we could cash out some or all of our BTC, even at these here prices.. and NOT too bothered about it.

Yes, we  might get a bit more stressed if BTC prices were to correct further into the lower $40ks, which is NOT greatly out of the question, even if it might NOT feel like it has high likelihoods of happening in the coming months.
'
I don't know, and I do not care too much, even if I share similar preferences as you towards UPpity rather than flat or experiencing more or less normal kinds of consolidations or corrections that remain decent possibilities.

I am NOT even saying that there has to be further BTC corrections for some of the known shitcoin and DEFI froth to go through some meaningful purgenings.

Who knows?  Who knows?

Even though many of us know that there remain decent amounts of upside BTC potential, we also likely realize that there may well be some weakhands to purge from btitcoinlandia, too.  Don't know.  Don't know, and whatevers.


Sure.   I was starting to feel like it was going to continue UPpity.. and sure, it still could, but we could also be a wee bit ahead of schedule, too.. I don't claim to know much of anything, but I do get the sense that BTC prices do not tend to go straight UPpity, even if there are a lot of people who honestly, sincerely and with all of their heart blah blah blah believe in supercycle blah blah blah..

Yeah, supercycle might happen, but then again, it might not... at least not now and not even for another cycle or two, if it does.... in spite of our having a decent amount of information that there are likely more and more institutions and BIGGER players getting into bitcoin.... Those BIGGER players and institutions might even have some desires (and even potentially have some tools available) to remove some coins from retail (those who might not have patience to experience their up and coming richie status (but only if they HODL - but they might NOT be able to.. 5x to 6x profits for some of those short-termers, as a sure thingie, in their lil pockets, all they have to do is hit the sell button.

Have you ever had 5x to 6x returns in less than a year..? and isn't it tempting to sell, especially if you don't know what the fuck you are investing in.. and if you value your wealth in dollars and the prices appear to be going down (not UP as promised)?  What if you could sell and buy back lower.. there's that, too.  hahahahahha  good luck.

Something is wrong with your analysis, shahzadafzal, and lightfoot already mentioned the crux of the misleading aspect of deee doggie...

Lightfoot described it as 180 degrees of bitcoin, but to be more specific, deeeee creators of deeeee doggie were trying to make fun of bitcoin by doing many things in the opposite way such as mining, lack of scarcity and the way that coin rewards came and some other bullshit, and even though there may have been some changes to some of those nearly non-functional aspects, the impetus still remains a means to try to make fun of bitcoin.. but it has grown to even more misleading than that because even if some peeps might have gotten the joke, there are some other peeps who actually take doggie seriously because they believe it is some variation of bitcoin blah blah blah - even though it is making fun of bitcoin... and doing the opposite in a few ways (probably more than I would like to study into - because ain't nobody who gots time for dat).

There have always been a variety of ways that folks might get talked out of investing into bitcoin or underinvesting in bitcoin, whether referring to unit bias or other kinds of distractions to which they might give credence. 

Of course, we can view the pumpening of various other coins (or even misleading talking points) as negative because they likely keep bitcoin prices lower for a longer period than otherwise we would expect, but it seems that many of us largely attempt to take advantage of such information asymmetry in terms of our continuing to buy and HODL bitcoin through the thick and thin...

Of course, if everyone were to realize the true value of bitcoin, it would be a much lesser bargain because its price would be very much higher, even though based on anticipated future appreciation (designed to pump forever) it still would be prudent to get some, if you either did not have any or you did not have enough.

That day seems quite far off from now, maybe greater than 50 years, so I am not sure how much utility we get from speculating over a kind of situation that is far from our current reality.  In other words, right now we have variables in front of us in which there are all kinds of asset classes, and likely bitcoin is far and beyond superior than any of the others, but that still might not justify putting 100% of value into bitcoin.. but at the same time, the likely ongoing superior performance of bitcoin is likely a pretty damned strong factor that should be accounted for, even if some folks are not even going to agree with my statement here so therefore there is going to likely be a long-ass time that a lot of people are investing in inferior assets, and whether that drags on for 50 years or some other timeline, I cannot really know, and my odds of even being around 50 years is very slim, i mean in terms of witnessing what happens by then.. but maybe there will be some advances in various directions, as you suggest prior to 50 years from now that I would be able to witness, even if it might not affect my investment choices in any meaningful way.. not sure...


Funny (or is the correct word "strange"?) that you want to keep harping on this likely inadequate talking point.


If doge is a purposeful distraction from bitcoin, then why talk about it?

Yes... my thoughts are that there is no usual in bitcoinlandia, and king daddy gives few shits about what you think it might do.


You can surely lose money in "crypto" by HODLing it.... that's for damned sure.

Of course, I cannot speak for Phil_S, but I give less than one ratt's ass if you want to call it SWR rather than passive income, and several times, I already stated various ways to reasonably consider the matter...and you want to get all bogged down on semantics that you believe better capture the ideas about how you would rather to consider the matter.

By the way, I further state that I consider "passive income" to be more descriptive in terms of what is attempting to be achieved (which is to have an income) without having to work rather than your "safe withdrawal rate" which hardly captures any kinds of ideas that we have been talking about.  What you trying to be safe from?  Safe from depleting your principle, perhaps?  I see no reason to change the descriptors based on your attempts at lame technical gottchas.



No one should blanketly attempt to create expectations out of centrally controlled assets, and surely every asset has a variety of particulars that need to be considered, and how much those particulars matter will depend, in part, upon how much of your value is tied up in such assets and what kind of timeline you expect to continue to have some or all of your value tied up in such assets.


His smartness got him distracted into a shitcoin, aka Monero....  which ended up showing that sometimes smartness cannot save peeps from dumb.

 

Aka SOMA...


Even though I tend to believe that a lot of the life extension ideas are fantasies rather than anything realistic that any of us should expect, I do agree with the idea of attempting to create a system that allows for a perpetual withdrawal rate, which would thereafter allow you to UP the withdrawal rate at a later date in order to start to dip into the principle.

I personally do not believe that a retirement plan should be designed with an exact window in which to use everything up until such date is known or comfortable.

In the end, each of us should be attempting to identify and to plan to follow a system that is customized to our circumstances and our comfort level. 

Also, even though I have a tendency to go overboard on making sure that I have a pretty BIG ass cushion, I find it a wee bit problematic when some members seem to be creating obstacles that seem to delay the allowance of pulling the fuck you lever - so in any event, there is going to be some balancing needs in terms of neither pulling the fuck you lever too soon and also being way too reluctant to pull such lever even when everything might not be aligned, even though you may well have enough finances to actually follow through with pulling such fuck you lever.


hahahahahaha.. wish all you like, sure there might be some things that you may be able to do to add a few years due to your richie status, but most likely the meat wagon is going to catch up to each of us and real life events are likely going to take away some of that living forever optimism.. blah blah blah.. not wishing any ill-will on anyone specifically... just trying some "real" talk on this here WO sometimes fantasy thread.

Even if you use some sound money investment strategies as a guide, if you are your own money manager, you likely are going to want to do a wee bit of thinking for yourself in terms of what asset classes you are investing in, what levels of returns do you expect and what levels of withdrawal do you expect.

For example, in a quote cited by Phil_S, earlier, there was a suggestion that if the returns in the fund are greater than you expected then you could withdraw greater than expected, and I personally would consider that as a dumbass strategy that unless your goal is to draw down principle and you are in a liquidation phase. Also, fuck the 30 year timeline, you can make the timeline whatever you want, unless you happen to want to 30 year timeline, but my idea is to draw at a rate that allows the ability to draw and continue to draw at that rate to be perpetual, until such time as you change your mind and decide to increase your withdraw rate to start to deplete principle. 

In other words, strategies that you create should attempt to reflect your specific goals and your specific situation instead of blindly following some structure created by someone else in a different time and likely applying to different asset classes since we are also considering king daddy here, and not some random asset class, even though index funds have been a historical reference and can still serve as a jumping off point in order to consider the possible reasonableness and prudence of your assessments.

I am not sure what DRP is, and if you are suggesting that it is a good supplement in terms of a type of asset to generate passive income?

Of course, if we keep most of our value in BTC (and maybe some in fiat), then we might consider ways to formulate systems that allow us to be able to draw from our BTC in some kind of way without having to either worry about the overly depletion of value within our intended timeframe or having psychological pressures regarding either from where to draw upon sources or that we might not have a sufficient cushion (your example of paying the $100 late bill).

It seems to me that if we are managing our own assets, even in the most toughest of times, we should have enough cushion that we are not overly worried about ways to pay various shorter-term expenses that might come in, but if times are rough for a considerable amount of time beyond expectations, we may well have to consider easier measures first in terms of cutting down on some of our costs/expenses in the short term so that later down the road we will not be running into figuring out our cash flow matters.

Regarding your target of increasing wealth by a minimum of 10% per year (I would add on average), I am in full agreement with that kind of targeting during accumulation of wealth phases, but once you get into either maintenance or even liquidation stages, the goals might change including whether you might merely be attempting to maintain value (however you measure that) or even starting to draw down the value.... So a goal of 10% per year minimum (on average) seems to ONLY apply to the accumulation phase - even if incidentally value might still increase in maintenance stage and even in liquidation stage, based on market movements.

Aren't the walls of order books reverse indicators?  Or have times changed in BTClandia?

(no one sent me the memo... )


That's a kind of thing that happens to each of us if we happen to be so lucky as to get older, even if such thing might NOT happen in such extremes, some variation of that does happen with age.

FTFY


Surely, I would not be asserting that it will not work in all circumstances, but for the vast majority of normies (who might just be getting into BTC or attempting to balance their fiat cashflow in terms of how much BTC to hold versus fiat), they are likely going to be much better off planning beyond month to month, and I had suggested having a 6 month cashflow for someone with fairly basic (or not too complicate) financial circumstances, and something like 18-24 months with someone who has more complicated financial circumstances or just might want to project ahead further.


Surely, getting an income in bitcoin would not be the circumstances of most normies - and of course, income source would ONLY be part of the story - and the other part would be expenses..are those payable in bitcoin (or are they measured in dollars/fiat)?

Another aspect, of course, is tailoring to your own circumstances and perhaps tweaking along the way, so if you have already been in such a practice since 2016 - gosh that could be 5 years or so, then you have already been through some decent BTC volatility periods, and I will presume that you have been attempting to learn along the way, in the event that you might have had some adjusting/tweaking that you have had to do during that period.

Since we are in a public thread, it may well be helpful to share some of your tactics, if you believe that they could be of general applicability.

You know sometimes guys here will describe some circumstances or practices that they have, and sure it is tailored to their own situation, but if we do not know certain aspects of their own situation, then we might wrongly conclude that some practice like theirs might work for our own circumstances, too.. which may or may not be true.


I have been thinking about some of this in recent times too in terms of debt.  I surely am not against the use of fiat based debt to potentially leverage the amount of BTC that you are able to buy.  Michael Saylor and some others have brought this strategy to the spotlight in recent times, and one thing that allows him to engage in such aggressiveness in that direction remains a decent amount of assurance in his already existing cashflow that he can project out, and the asset values that he already has that he can project out.  It may sound a bit ironic to some, but over the years, I had gravitated into a kind of similar approach as Saylor in my use of debt - which I increasingly was able to accomplish in the very late 90s and moreso in the early 2000s... So for example, I would get pretty decent-sized loans that had really low interest rates, but I would largely already have the money to pay it back, but the loan would still give me greater flexibility in terms of putting some or all of that money to work, and so as that money was working to increase income, then I would be able to attempt to leverage more money based on the increase in my portfolios.  It's like a positive loop, as long as you keep your money working - and many folks get tempted when they have so much additional cash to buy consumption goods such as expensive cars or furniture or go out to eat at nice places, which likely end up being depreciating assets.  

Surely, some of those seemingly consumption items could be justified in terms of increasing income, so maybe a car is needed to produce income, and does the fancy new Mercedes or BeeMer end up bringing in value/utility that is greater than the Ford, Toyota or even Lexus?   Might there be some value (utility) in buying a car that already depreciated quite a bit in value, such as a 3 year old car (which still might be like new) rather than the new car?

Anyhow, most of my point here relates to attempting to use debt in ways to build value, especially in earlier years - and of course, you may well be able to splurge a lot more when you have reached certain levels of profitability, and even excess profitability - which does not likely come automatically, but may begin to be more measurable with the passage of time.


I personally believe that the longer you are in, the more you should be able to build up comfort - as long as you do not screw up too much along the way.  Even with some screw ups, BTC can be relatively forgiving so long as you have been erring on the side of stacking sats - while at the same time, we know that past performance does not guarantee future results - even though we do have some current BTC price models that do seem to decently show us how to assign probabilities.


That would be pretty bad...and surely would suck for a lot of us.  I remember having those kinds of dreams (or maybe nightmares) a lot more in my earlier days in BTC (maybe between about 2014 and 2017), but have not been having them too much in recent times, even though every once in a while I will still get a kind of stray dream like that.  Surely, zero does not seem too likely, and I would suspect even going back to sub $10k or god-forbid sub $3k would be quite traumatic, even if it is NOT quite zero.


Hopefully it is not.  I think that even if such outrageous scenarios seem to be less than 1% or .001% in the more extreme scenarios (and hopefully you are not so deluded that you are assigning unrealistically low probabilities to events that have much higher probabilities of happening), it seems to me that there should still be some considerations and preparations for variations of such extremely negative scenarios... but also in my thinking, those kinds of outrageous and extreme scenarios ONLY deserve in the ballpark of as much considerations and preparations as their probabilities indicate (so in my thinking it would be completely ludicrous to put 10% or 20% preparations into various scenarios that only have 1% or even .001% odds of happening  ... there needs to be some proportionality and no problema with hedging a wee bit either).


Actually, you are correct about considering your youth, your health and your various skills (employability).  Some people might not be ready, willing or able to unpull the fuck you lever once they pull it (meaning going back to work - including some people thinking that they could become something like a Walmart greeter.. and yeah, we have all likely seen people working or trying to gain income in various activities and ways that seem quite unsuited to their abilities and skills.

By the way, around late 2013 - right around the time right before I got into bitcoin, I had pulled some variation of the fuck you lever (actually, there were things that I had decided in the prior year or maybe more) that had largely contributed to my pulling of the fuck you lever in late 2013 to become almost inevitable by the time that it came.. It was not a complete pulling of the fuck you lever, but there was a certain lack of desire building in me to engage in the kind of hustle that would allow me to make the salary that I was making at that time.  So, even though there may well be circumstances that could allow me to either make that level of income or to exceed it, there is a decently high level of reluctance that has remained in me (and luckily I have not had to go down that road) to actually try to get a job that either pays anywhere close to that fuck you lever pulling job that I had, or even some job that might supplement my ability to live at some fraction of the level of income that I had from that job.

Another kind of funny and ironic thing is that I would have likely not had time to look into bitcoin or even to be motivated to get into bitcoin if I had kept my fuck you lever pulling job in late 2013 - and even though it largely took a few years for my bitcoin appreciation to exceed what I would have earned by staying in that job, even by late 2018 (referring to the correction) the value of my BTC investment had increased to a level that put me close to being on par from my fuck you lever pulling income, but surely, our most recent price run after September 2020 that seems to have tested $10k for the last time has allowed a kind of sealing of the deal in terms of not only bringing income and value to where I am at, but also provided future income that decently exceeds what I had been making on a monthly and regular basis while not really having to do much if any work (beyond managing it) for that exceeding value to be able to continue to be withdrawn - even into perpetuity - upon my choosing (and I largely have not started withdrawing any value yet - beyond various maintenances or incidentally) - and without having to work.. which I would surely consider a vast amount of what is going on in my own situation as passive income - even if Biodom does not like my categorization of withdraw of BTC value (or anticipation of it) as "passive" income because supposedly I am misleading people blah blah blah because once I start withdrawing value from my BTC, I would actually be depleting the number of my coins... blah blah blah... he can go fuck himself with his failure/refusal to appreciate the points that a decent level of assurances can be achieved in terms of how to measure value of an asset and ability to draw upon such value rather than waiting for some pie in the sky moment that forestalls pulling the fuck you lever in a meaningful way while still having enough youth and energy to enjoy such NOT having to work ever again (except completely voluntarily) (beyond perhaps managing your own money).

You might need to work on your reading skills a bit more.  I said that you need about double today as you would have needed in 2010 including millionnaire status.

As you likely already know because we have discussed the matter a zillion times, the passive income of $3,333 per month is based on using an withdrawal rate of 4% per year.. and presuming that you are able to earn at least 4% per year has been traditional accounting .. but not consensus because there are differing views on how much peeps believe that they can earn and/or safely withdraw from any principle in order to maintain it.


Traditional accounting... of a withdrawal rate of 4% per year, which is $1million x 4% = $40k/12.


If you get value appreciation of at least 4% per year, then you can withdraw it.. its the same thing - and probably you have to earn a bit more if there are capital gains taxes or something like that in there which may well be different depending on which asset class you are referring to.. in this case we should be mostly considering bitcoin, but I understand peeps are going to diversify into other assets as well..  You can figure out the details of your own situation regarding how much you might need to sustain yourself, what assets you have... and what expenses you might have.



I give no shits.  I am talking about if the value appreciates, then you still have the same amount in principle if you are ONLY spending from the appreciating amount.. same thing as passive income, only thing is that you may have to spend some time managing your money, but you are not having to bust your ass, you are living off of the value - and if you want to make it perpetual, they you should not be drawing into the principle.. even though at some point yit ou might want to draw down the principle as well.  


You have not pointed out any errors yet. Only complaining that might not be able to get 4% in appreciation to be able to account for the spending, and I would just suggest that you have more then or that you make sure that you are invested in assets that are appreciating at least if NOT more on average than you are withdrawing, in order that you are not eating into your principle.


I say 4%, and my new formula in bitcoin is going to allow up to 12% per year using the 208 week moving average.

And, yes it is passive because you do not have to work for it, beyond maybe managing it (which does not count), so I could give less than two shits if you accept my use of the word "passive" or not.


In the case of bitcoin, it is value appreciation too.


If the value of your stash is appreciating more than you are spending, then for all intents and purposes it is passive income.. and with any volatile asset, you have to figure out a way to measure its value in such a way that attempts to account for the volatility and so you might not be withdrawing faster than it is appreciating - which I have been using the 208-week moving average for measurement of value for about the past 6 months to year or so.  So currently the 208-week moving average has a value of close to $11,500.  So in order to be a millionaire, you would currently need about 87 coins, and of course double that for $2million.. which I would suggest to be the bare minimum to reach fuck you status.

Since I am allowing up to 12% per year based on the 208-week moving average, of course, $1million may well be enough for many folks under my formula, because that would be $10k per month.  That is $1million x 12% = 120k/12.

Ok.... I will bite.

Why?


I think that there is also a kind of consensus evolving in recent times that even today, you need $2million as compared to what a millionaire would have been in 2010-ish   So $1million will give you about $3,333 in passive income per month and sure double that with $2million.. to $6,667 per month of passive income.

You tease!!!!!!!!!

 

There could be some on the threshold, and for sure, even though the majority of the BTC price has stayed within the range of $55k to $63k, the reality of the matter is that we did have a 20% dip from the ATH of $64,895 to the so far extreme of this particular dip down to $51,541.

I am surely NOT going to flip out because for at least a few reasons, I do not consider myself to be on the threshold, and I also believe that our current 208-week moving average of $11,235 has hardly even given a bleep about if the BTC price is at $65k or $50k, even though the 208-week moving average would surely move UPpity more rapidly with a higher price, either price hardly makes much difference in the whole scheme of things whether the current BTC price is 5.79x above the 208-week moving average or 4.45x above the 208-week moving average - a difference without a distinction, which maybe a very similar thing to what you, AlcoHoDL, are saying.

By the way, $20k could well just be an easier number from which to measure including that it attempts to skate to where the puck is going, and it is a logical number for other reasons (including being in the neighborhood of the previous ATH that stood for about 3 years from mid-December 2017 to mid-December 2020).  

So if we measure this most recent dip from the consideration of $20k being our bottom (and $20k) being our fuck you status measurement, then we have a going down from 3.25x above the measurement (that would be cushion, no?) to 2.5x above the measurement... still have 2.5x cushion in the dip so far.

I guess in the end, what I am attempting to assert and suggest for longer term HODLers to attempt to consider current BTC price in terms of the most extreme of bottoms that you can imagine to be somewhat reasonable.  I have chosen $11,235 as my moving target, and AlcoHoDL seems to be somewhere in the neighborhood of $20k, and if you had been choosing $50k or $60k as your number, you are likely being completely (or nearly completely) unreasonable to be expecting that some decently sized dippenings might not come along the way, and even that BTC prices may well get stuck in those decently sized dippenings for a considerable time before it is ready, willing and able to resume UPpity (presuming that at some point it will resume UPpity).

By the way, I recall from a few days ago hearing Willy Woo having a bet with someone that BTC prices will not go below $44,500 (or something like that) at any time before the end of the year, and so when the BTC price is dipping outrageously - like it did yesterday, then there can become some worries that the number is in jeopardy, and surely in order to get someone to take the other side of the bet, you gotta be higher than either my number  of $11,235 or even AlcoHoDL's $20k-ish number.


And, that is another fair/reasonable way of looking at the being poor matter.

For sure, each of us has to attempt to account for our own situation in terms of cashflow, other investments, view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, timeline, risk tolerance and time, skills and abilities to learn plan strategize and tweak from time to time based on learning including possibly reallocating and trading.

How long you have been in bitcoin (including establishing your position) can also affect how long you have been able to solidify your position and your strategies.

So, if we go buy your forum registration date of June 2019, it could be quite possible that you have not had as much time as me to establish your position, and also since I had already been investing in a variety of other assets for about 25 years prior to my late 2013 entrance into BTC, I was relatively shortly (within about a year) able to get a pretty decent stake in bitcoin - even though, like I said I was somewhat anxious and nervous about whatever I was doing for about 3 years after getting started in part because my BTC portfolio continued to be either unprofitable or ONLY marginally becoming profitable by the end of that 3 years.. but then it moved quite far into profitability soon thereafter as we might surmise from the BTC price movements of late 2016 and most of 2017.

So degree of profitability (that may well be tied to how long you are in and attempting to employ your strategy) can also bring some changes in comfort but also some changes in the strategies (or at least more conviction in terms of strategies already being followed - not suggesting that I am opposed to ongoing tweakenings of strategies, if seems to be a prudent course of action).


Of course, each of us is going to employ strategies that are a bit different from each other, even if we share a lot of similar factors.

There might be some need for explanation, here.   When I came into bitcoin I ended up targeting putting 10% of my quasi-liquid investment asset value into BTC, but by the time all was said and done after a couple of years, the amount that I ended up putting into bitcoin was in the ballpark of 13.5%..,. so if that allocation was more or less achieved by the end of 2015 or so (even though most of it was achieved in 2014), then BTC's price appreciation had caused my BTC allocation to go towards the 90% arena by the end of 2017 but then bounce back down to somewhere around 50% during the extremes of the 2018 and 2020 corrections, but then gotten into the 90% arena, again, and yes, if I end up extracting out some of the dollars that are in my various bitcoin related funds in order to figure out what is actually in BTC versus non-BTC... then maybe I get somewhere below 90% - even though those funds  (even if in dollars) are largely dedicated towards bitcoin at this point.    

I would claim that I am sufficiently "in" bitcoin, and sufficiently staying in bitcoin in spite of tinkering arounds on the various edges, even if some might say that my allocation into bitcoin is not enough because I am not 100% in bitcoin, and I find those ideas to be quite bullshit both in the times that we live and also in terms of some of the necessities for most people to keep some other assets besides bitcoin including being able to account for their various short to medium and even somewhat longer term fiat expenses.  

In fact I already asserted several times, that since late 2013 my non-BTC investments have been enough to sustain my standard of living, and sure I have made some little bumpenings up in my standard of living in some regards in accounting for my bitcoin value that I have as insurance, but my bumping up has not been drawing into my bitcoin investment except maybe indirectly I have been trying to keep less and less fiat reserves in the traditional systems as an account for the ongoing increasing value of my BTC investment and the securities/assurances that the BTC value has been providing - moreso after 2016.
 

I did a quickie look, and it appears that I have about 10% to 11% of my total BTC investment value on various exchanges (and with 3rd parties).  I believe before early 2017, I had around 50% to 60% on about 10 exchanges (or with 3rd parties).  I don't consider 10% to 11% to be a significant portion of my overall value, and I consider the utility (and benefits) of it to be worth the risk (including that on a personal level, I have wanted to have some various kinds of participation in the BTC eco-structure besides mere HODLing – which I consider that if I participate in various aspects of bitcoin, it causes me to more actively attempt to watch what is going on while attempting to learn from my participation, too).


Just from that representation, you are describing your situation as quite different from mine, especially that I have tended to be reluctant to actually outrightly sell my BTC stash in order to take care of any regular expenses, and only on some lesser frequent occasions have I sold BTC and ending up having some troubles replacing it or somehow attempting to plug those sold values back into my system – which might be removing buy orders from the very bottom of my ladder of buy orders and putting them higher up.. such as putting them as the next buys to make (which means closing my buy/sell gap or attempting to buy BTC in order to keep  my BTC stash close to the same as it was prior to the sale).  

In 2014, 2015 and 2016, I was even more paranoid about the buy and replace and I would set up systems to more surely guarantee that I had buy backs in a relatively short period of time, frequently less than a couple of days.  After 2017, I felt that my BTC portfolio was getting into quite significant profits, so I did not mind so much if there might be some extra shavings off here and there but still not using BTC for any kinds of regular expenses because I have fiat cashflows (mostly passive, since 2013) that are already designated for ongoing and regular expenses – and usually projecting out around 18 to 24 months.

By the way, I do understand that if someone is either earning money in BTC or mining or something like that, then they have to have a system that regularly cashes out BTC, so even though peeps in those kinds of situations might end up keeping more of their value in BTC, I still would consider it quite problematic if they are not reasonably projecting out their cashflows for a considerable amount of time – maybe they might not need to go as far as 18-24 months like I do, but they should be attempting to minimize some kind of scenario where they might be forced to sell decent or significant portions of their BTC that is at a time that is NOT of their own choosing, merely because they managed and projected their cashflows poorly – and that did kind of happen to me in November 2018 – not a major loss but a bit of a lesson (and not even sure if I completely learned from it.. even though I think about it frequently).


That seems like a really crazy-ass way of managing cashflow – month to month.  I feel that I am very conservative, and I starting to think more and more that there is a lot of importance in having a conservative mindset when it comes to how to deal with capital, and yeah it took me a fuck tone of time to build wealth over 25 years before getting into bitcoin, but still I was never really a BIG risk taker and I have just honed those practices over the years.. and don’t call me a fud dud because I do take some risks, but taking too many risks can become quite problematic if you lose your principle and you have to start over again.. but you can still put some of your principle at risk without putting it too much at risk and allowing it to work for you…

When I was 18 to 25,…. - might have even lasted longer than that.  I frequently would project my cashflow out at least 6 months – but I think that I was having some troubles using debt during that time and sometimes it was just harder, back then to actually qualify for getting credit lines that became easier and easier as I got older (but I think that times changed somewhat too with more loose credit line policies)… but anyhow, the more complicated my finances (including using debts and having some varying risks and volatilities in investments – and even cashflow), I found it more and more advantageous to project cashflows out further.. and gosh I would get nervous when it appeared that one or two or even three months in advance were appearing to have potential short-falls.. there is almost no way that I would want to have uncertainty within the same month.. but maybe that is just me, even though I do find a lot of wealth creation potential in having really good grasps on longer term cashflows including even sometimes assigning probabilities to certain streams of income or expenses coming due/arriving at certain timelines.


Of course, you probably realize that I never have much confidence in short term price direction beyond 5% or so, therefore I am frequently around 50/50 for anything, and there is a considerable amount of emotional detachment from that.. if you see me stating probabilities of 55% / 45% that is meaning that I am becoming confident (or potentially deluded) about one direction over another..

And, yeah of course, there are not just two price directions because we have sideways too, and then price is not ONLY a function of amount but also a function of time, so getting the time and the amount correct seems like a fools errand to me, and accordingly, I find it quite prudent to prepare for either direction and maybe tweaking a bit to bias towards one direction or another, and I suppose that my long term tweaking bias has continued to be tweaking towards Uppity… which sometimes even that sometimes has gotten me into trouble in terms of starting to run low on cash if the BTC price runs against my preparations for what seems to be for too long of a time.


Good to revisit it from time to time, for sure… and sometimes the time to revisit it might be when there is a BIG market movement or even a series of regular or normal market movements in the same direction that largely add up to BIG in the whole scheme of things.

Sometimes when I go to reset some of my buy orders or sell orders, I decide to revisit the whole thing just to reassess my level of comfort.  

I have a fairly BIG deal that I am contemplating that is fairly short-term that will likely cause me to have to do some tweaking in the short term, and then I have an even BIGGER long term project that is in my head, and likely is going to take way the hell more planning/structuring that I will need to get to at some point when the mere regular day activities might open up some space to permit me to do so.


There are so many damned bullish things going on in Bitcoinlandia (of course I worry about some of the froth in the shitcoin space), and it almost seems way too good to be true, and sad for the peeps who are likely missing out on this whole matter (likely a lot of retail normies), so yeah, I believe that there are great odds for decent levels of UPpity in the coming months that could last as long as 20 months…. but we also have no guarantees that the top of $64,895 for this cycle might already be in.. (seems like a decently low probability that the top is in but surely quite a bit greater than a zero probability, and maybe even in a 10% or greater arena that the top is in… am I being too bullish with this 10% number?)

Whatever, if you are not preparing for both UP and Down – and sure sideways is in there too, somewhere (less likely), then you are likely gambling rather than investing… preparations for both UP and DOWN are based on a number of factors including assigning probabilities and should be both financially and psychologically.

ONLY 14 days to the end of the month.  I am not saying that $70k cannot happen, but the odds are interesting (a little bit trying to stick with the theme of this thread of watching what is happening rather than trying to assert what is likely to happen, which can be quite irresistible sometimes). 

One more outrageous prediction point.  who pointed out that we have had an ATH every month and predicted an ATH in every month until the end of the year (which ATH every month until the end of the year would be quite an interesting phenomenon if it were to actually happen)? 

I am thinking that at least we will be having an ATH in May.. and then since we already had an ATH in April, do we really need another one?  It could go either way. 

I suppose we just need to watch because taking out so many levered longs (through the extreme correction of the last 12 hours) might have made it easier to continue to go UP.. perhaps?  Perhaps?

Actually, that is true.. there should be a quite a few wiping of the leveraged longs from such an extreme and quick price move.. .. and of course, such wiping of longs does not guarantee that we are going to resume UPpity, but surely I had recalled seeing quite a bit of stacking of leveraged longs, which at some point becomes way too much of a honey pot for any deep pocket(s) to resist.

You can say that again.

It's been a while since we had any kind of quasi-meaningful correction whether we are referring to the quantity of the correction or how long it might last.

So far it has been pretty quick, since our high of $64,895 was on the 14th, and the amount of the correction so far is "only" about 20% to our current low of $51,541.  

I am not cheering for more correction, because frequently when there is so much volume in such a short period of time (that last leg from $58,600-ish to the $51,541 current bottom happened over about 25 minutes.  So sure there could be more, even if the bounce back (to reach about $56k within the past 5 minutes, as I type) is currently seeming decent.  We will see if the bounce back or an ongoing correction is in our near-term future?  We will see?   The next 36 hours are absolutely and undeniably critical.^tm