Attention negative short-term bitcoin analysts (aka whiners who have insufficiently pee pared their lil selfies psychologically and/or financially).

Protip:  we still have s-curve.

It's called exponential growth s-curve adoption based on networking effects and metcalfe principles.

That has not disappeared at all, and part of the reason that some peeps might not be able to see it is because it goes beyond the 4 year cycles and quite likely even the 12+ years of bitcoin cannot even capture it very well..

Think about the matter?  How much adoption do you expect bitcoin currently has?   are we over 1% yet?  Yeah, sure there are some rich peeps hoarding, some OGs hoarding and even some institutional entrants who are hoarding, so how much has bitcoin really penetrated into retail (meaning the massive population)?  

Get a fucking grip if you are trying to analyze the existence or the degree of movement of s-curve exponential adoption within a four-year cycle or some other random and wimpy time-frame that is not sufficiently zoomed out.


You don't lose any money if you never bought any....

hahahahaha

just kidding.. I know that this is NOT a time to be kidding.. but still...

I will agree that in times like this, it can be quite problematic to overly make certain kinds of jokes... - especially if you might know some of the particulars of some peeps... at the same time some digs can become quite effective too.. in these kinds of times of potential vulnerability..

And furthermore, some peeps (especially with no stake) will become even more emboldened to get in their lil digs. 

So, we must be careful, even while we have a lot of potential volatility stresses upon our lil selfies to NOT lose our cool.... even on the interwebs (if possible - we (not  royal) - are not bots, right?).

Funny how sorcerer wannabe's try to find ways to be correct no matter what?

Don't you recall instructing to go away for a month or two?

You are saying that it is all about reaching the number?

In other words, u doesn't know shit...

Except that there was a lot of momentum.

Another thing is that when there is a BIG ASS wick.. like the one that we see from the last hour or so, and then a pretty BIG ASS bounce back, which seems that could be happening currently, then there could be a sign that the bottom is in.. but surely not guaranteed, and I am personally not going to rest very comfortably about the bottom being in until we are a considerable distance from it in terms of both quantity and time.. perhaps getting back above $50k.. but depending on how it may play out in the coming week or so.


Size of the bounce back (short term wick) looking pretty BIG right now (from a low of $30,066 about 40 minutes ago to a bounce back up to about $37,581 about 10 minutes ago).. but I surely do not claim to know much beyond wanting to criticize others for making pretty strong claims of certainty in regards to the future... which frequently is problematic... so I have no clues if this wick is going to resolve the matter or we may have another leg down.. depending on the way recovery plays out.. and very difficult to speculate with any kind of confidence (not that I ever do) while the dumpening and attempt at recovery battle is in progress (edited this paragraph to add current bouncing around numbers).. price currently bouncing between $35,800-ish and $36,500-ish in the last 5 minutes or so as I type.

As long as you are prepared psychologically and financially for either up or down, then I suppose that it does not matter which way it goes.

Just don't prepare only for one BTC price direction that might not happen.. which is likely the punchline.

I guarantee that the BTC price has to go to $45k before it goes to $55k   

First, we are not talking about crypto here.. we are talking about bitcoin.. so just to clarify that angle and a sometimes ambiguity that can come from your use of such crypto term.

Second, buying on dips is only one component of figuring out how are you going to get a stake into bitcoin, so if you wait until $30k to $32k you may well never have that number reached, and sure of course, where someone is at can make a pretty BIG difference in considerations.

Third, dollar cost average method is a very solid method that buys at any price on a regular basis (I personally recommend at least weekly but budgets and purchase locations might affect those intervals) with an assumption that there is nearly no way to know where the price of an asset is going to go (especially BTC), so in that regard, you are being quite presumptuous 3meek to suggest that you know much of anything about BTC price direction.. especially in the short to medium term.. including that we are still likely in a bull market.. whether you believe it or no.

Fourth, I personally employed front loading investment, buying on dip and DCA averaging to get my initial stake in bitcoin in 2013, 2014, and 2015 and I believe that it worked out very well because even though some people claim they knew what was going to happen when BTC prices went down from $1,163 to $200-ish from 2013 to 2014 and largely get stuck in the mid $250s for the vast majority of 2015, this was not really known with any certainty, even though after the fact a person can look back and feel all kinds of self-righteous confidence about should have waited and bought on dips blah blah blah.. and some of those folks who waited did not get in or were too BIG of pussies in regards to trying to time the market and/or failing refusing to take any kind of meaningful stake into BTC.

Fifth, I have seen time after time during the bullrun of late 2015 to late 2017 that peeps were scared to buy the dip on several occasions, got scared from some of the various dips along the way, thought the BTC price was going lower, and ended up waiting too god-damned long, failed/refused to be sufficiently aggressive about their BTC investment, and sometimes especially ends up happening after a BIG dip and then waiting for another 20-40% dip that does not happen... and ultimately too greedy or too preoccupied about trying to be too smart in their attempt to time the market when they should have just bought.. saw it over and over..

Sixth.. this time is different.. who knows?  We have pretty decent currently valid BTC price prediction models that are not broken and we do not seem to be in a bear market, so if you consider that you know better, then so be it.. maybe you will be right.. maybe not....,.

Seven, if you have absolutely no stake in bitcoin, this is a great time to get the fuck in..  Just like $64k was.. so start out by thinking about 1% to 10% and tailor to your own situation.. and you are responsible for your own situation and your own investment approach.. there is a lot of information out there...some of it better than others.

So in regards to this friend.... does he own any bitcoin?

I would say buy the dip or continue with your dollar cost averaging, and if you have not gotten into bitcoin yet, get the fuck in.

Of course, overall you are correct, and we do not know if the top is in with the $64,895 that was reached on April 13..   To me, it seems very doubtful that that is the end of the BTC run for this cycle, but it surely remains possible that we could have a bit of a pause here that lasts a few months or maybe even 9 months or so.. and then resumption of the UPpity.. and of course none of that is guaranteed including that we might not get past $64,895 for another 3-5 years (and that seems doubtful scenario to me in terms of the end of UPpity until then.. but any of us HODLers and accumulators of bitcoin need to be mentally and financially prepared for a variety of scenarios, including the less likely scenarios.

So in the end?  what should your friend do?  Partly depends on his own situation and if he has already reached his BTC accumulation target.. then he could either be in a maintenance stage or a liquidation stage.. but if his timeline is longer than 4 years, then he should not necessarily be in a liquidation stage.. but hey depends in part on particulars, too.

I know Wind_FURY (I am razzing you a bit), that you are reluctant to proclaim that peeps should be engaging in DCA buying on a regular basis, yet I continue to believe that DCA remains a great frame work.. and sure they have to keep in mind that there might be considerable more additional dip (even though it seems that we are currently in a bull market), and if we end up converting into a bear market our dip could get into the sub $20k territory.. perhaps?  perhaps? 

Anyone who ONLY thinks about DOWN scenarios in times like these is likely going to miss opportunities for accumulating BTC and sufficiently and adequately preparing for UP.. at least in my humble bumble opinion.

Of course, I have frequently asserted that my system works quite well for me in terms of what I have done in bitcoin.. and no real need to redescribe it at this point.. beyond to say that it buys on the way down with buy orders set down to about $13k currently.. and sell orders that go up to about $100k currently..

But I do have some real world deals that may well cause me to change some of my orders and also give some considerations to me cash on-hand considerations.. including potentially removing some of the sub $30k buy orders.. even though this does seem to be a time to be keeping those in place...  but in the real world, I hardly gives no fucks.. and I can even shave off some extra BTC at any time that I want to.. even though it is seeming right now would not be a good time to do so..  but my decision does not have very much at all to do with whether the BTC price is moving UPpity or DOWNity... and just a matter of already being in "fuck-you" status that mostly allows to NOT pay so much attention if the shaven off portions of the BTC stash are in 65x profits or they "only" happen to be in 32x profits. or even some smaller number.. assuming a cost basis of around $1k per BTC.

Even though my authorization to be able to sell as needed above $5k went into effect sometime after the 2019 recovery from the 2018 dippening.  My authorization to sell above $5k as needed has been reverted into using the 208-week moving average as my guidance in terms of whether I may remove myself from being able to sell or to shave off some BTC here and there at will, which allows me to sell without worries so long as the price is above the 208-week moving average.... and largely I am able to sell up to 12% per year based on those numbers.. which seems a bit high, and I have not even come close to selling much of any (beyond a few percent here and there and even those were subsequently largely replaced)...

So anyhow, the 208-week moving average is currently approaching $12,500-ish.. so even shaving off some BTC now (at these current prices of $40k-ish).. would still result in 3x more value than the 208-week moving average, if I were to want to shave up to 12% per year of the 208-week moving average total which I may well restrict myself to 3% per quarter, but have not thought it through yet since it has NOT yet needed to actually be applied.. yet... so hopefully no panic from me, if all of a sudden I might need to shave off some BTC and it might go higher than the limits that I had already set for myself. hope that it does not happen, but I feel decently secure, currently.

I surely understand that there are going to be some folks who might consider any kind of selling to NOT to be a good when the BTC price is going down, and surely I agree with that, so I tend to prefer to time any sales for when the BTC price is going up, in the event that I were to need to make any sales.. which currently, I am still in the buying on the way down mode.. as I already mentioned.... 

Sorry to confuse peeps with personal details because personally tailorizing anything that you do (including bitcoining) does seem to be a quite winner strategy - even though the individualized particulars from time to time might not apply to others... especially if we consider if that BTC HODLers are likely in various different locations and degrees of whether they are largely accumulating, maintaining or liquidating, so understanding where one HODLer might be in comparison to another HODLer may well help to be able to appreciate why one HODLer may have taken his/her particularized tailored approach in the event that they were to be asked further regarding personal details and see if any of that might apply to the circumstances of other peeps or how they might plan and strategize their own approach to bitcoin based on their personal situation and whether they are in accumulation stage, maintenance stage or liquidation stage (or some hybrid variation).

I am going to suggest that even predictions around 60% can be quite overly certain in bitcoinlandia and even needing explanation order to understand why such certainty is being espoused to others.  On the other hand, on a personal level you can come to as high of certainties as you like, and if you place your BTC bets accordingly, you may well be getting reckt quite a lot if you are actually betting in ways that consider yourself to have better than 60% odds of being correct.

At the same time, many of us realize that both gamblers and sorcerer wannabes tend to overstate their success history, and if they are forced into a practice of actually having to timely report such bets in order to see how they play out in actual practice, they are frequently humbled in a fairly quick timeline, even though some might have something up to a 6 month streak from time to time.. even jupiter9 - that kind of reminds me of your vague-ass TD9 was successful for a seemingly long-ass time, may have been greater than 3 months if my recollection is serving me with some level of accuracy.

You don't really seem like a dumb guy, so hopefully you will get ur lil selfie humbled a wee bit in order that you might be able to be helpful to others in this thread beyond being another example of what NOT to do.. and we surely already have a decent abundance of those, so it seems....

At the same time, I do believe that we are quite blessed in this thread in terms of the number of really full of shit participants .. so there does seem to be a lot of decent ideas being presented and outlined herein on a quite regular basis.. even during stressful times like these.. what are we at?  a current low of $40,127 (within the past 20 minutes-ish) as I type which would be a bit more than a 38% correction from our current ATH of $64,895?

No real actual clear sign of a violent bounce back that sometimes can help to provide some evidence that the bottom is in - even though neither a violent spike down nor a violent bounce back would be a condition precedent for the bottom being in because the bottom could get reached without such wicks.



Hahahahaha

That might be the key.. bob...

Maybe we do have to get Blawb to start screaming like a little girl before the bottom is actually in....

that might be a decent indicator.. And you cannot be faking it either.. .. put ur lil selfie emotionally back in the time when you were deleting all your posts, or you were whining about going below $10k but the BTC price did not want to stop there...

King daddy knows the difference between a real scream like a little girl and a fake one.

Is the purported "ASIC's boost" overt or covert or just difficult to know what is happening? 

And how speculative is such an "ASIC's boost" practice that you mentioned?  I heard that covert ASIC boost was a "thingie" in 2017-ish, but I thought that segregated witness removed such possibilities to engage in such practices, at least in terms of how it was understood to be being carried out in early to mid-2017.

Am I the greenie in this context?

If so, I could think of worse.

 

Not to perpetuate this stream of discussion longer than it needs to, but many of us know that the ways of war have moved into the non-physical space, and sure physical is effective too, but the non-physical attack methods are gaining a lot of ground - even if you prefer metal pipe treatment.. you might not get your preferences so easily..

Further more, prices of metal has gone up,.. and some folks may be having some difficulties finding you too, no?.. of course, the BIG players are not going to have as many difficulties to find you, but there may well be some folks who are quite effective in concealing their physical location.. and even employ a sufficient amount of decoy tactics to be able to enjoy hookers, Lambos and blow without anyone (of concern) really knowing about it.

Many of us appreciate that bitcoin (and crypto perhaps?) for that matter can be pretty damned unforgiving for mistakes, and if Barry et al get caught on the wrong side of doing things whether attempts at betting or attempts at manipulation, he could get his ass handed to him pretty damned badly.

I strive not to follow shitcoins with any kind of specificity or even potentialities in getting caught up in nonsense analysis or nonsense indications of what is happening or what might happen.  Nonetheless, I do recall that Barry et al has been a pretty damned BIG ETC supporter ever since soon after the initial creation of ETC.. so likely due to Barry et al's single-handed endorsement of that ETC product, he has likely helped to keep it from fading away into oblivion.

I bet in terms of dollars, his ETC has performed decently well, and who knows if ETC might have any chances of picking up considerable market support in the event that various aspects of ETH fail in their purported transition to ETH 2.0 (proof of stake) or whatever other various weaknesses that ETH might have that ETC might be in a better place to take over rather than some other ETH imitation shitcoin.

Again, I don't tend to follow any of these matters in any kind of detail, but it is difficult to ignore when so many business are getting involved in various aspects of shitcoins - and might even cause some of my exposure to such businesses whether Gemini, Binance, Bitstamp or even some of the support on hardware wallets to become more vulnerable or even controversial due to some of their shitcoin support choices.

I suppose that there are degrees in all of these matters, and each of us have to attempt to decide how much to pay attention to these matters or maybe to direct our attention in other ways including my decision to post about Grayscale in a joking kind of way regarding what seems to be a lot of ongoing shitcoin plays... Time will tell if these matters play out well, and Barry does not seem to be any kind of dummy even though the market has been going against him in recent times, and surely we might really know if something might be about to blow up until it actually already has blown up (even if signs are there)...

Some peeps think that Grayscale could get rescued by a ETF approval (its own), but just imagine that sometimes even peeps within the govt do take sides from time to time, and some of them may well prefer to put a wee bit of pressure (drama) on the bitcoin space by supporting some competitor and denying Grayscale and sitting back in popcorn mode to see how that plays out... of course, I don't know shit, so I am just speculating about some things that could happen to throw some curve balls into the space.

No they don't.

"They" can take 50% from you without even knowing who the fuck you are by doubling the dollar supply on the ledger.. and does not matter which one you hold.. physical or digital....  similar with the gold manipulations in which some gold bag hodlers believe that there are significantly additional value to physical gold (beyond armagaeddon scenarios) in holding the actual cumbersome physical stuff...

Accordingly, our uncle sam or designee with merely push one lil button (or click the mouse) and wing-a-dingie-adee-ding, wam-a-dee-wee-woo-doodle.. and uie pooie end up having 50% less value than you had a few minutes earlier.   Easy ma peasie...

Note:  Relatively speaking, I largely agree with your overall point lightfoot, in regards to the preference of physical currency over some of the recent digital shenanigans in the makings.. but I also wanted to highlight a wee bit of an overstatement that seemed to have been contained within your own framing of current monetary money dynamics (fiat especially).


Is something missing, such as a link?  #justsaying

Hahahahaha

That is be called Koreck.. psycho...


Even though ur lil name is psycho, u b making lots of senses, sometimes.



If we set up our various systems correctly, we should give hardly no fucks about considerably great corrections such as 80-ish% or 4-10x or greater price appreciations.

Yeah, I am not even saying that some of the extremes might not start to become concerning - but extremes that barely go beyond what is already expectedll should not be causing great anxiety.. especially for longer term bitcoin peeps who may have had at least a few years to both set up their systems and to set up plans for dealing with the more extreme BTC price moves, which seem more inevitable than they should be feeling as surprises..

A 40%-ish correction comes or even a 65% correction, and how you gonna respond?

I am shocked...

I am shocked..


Huh?  What?

I am not gonna say that I am not going to be bothered somewhat.. just like I am bothered somewhat from our current 40%, but my personal level of bother is hardly enough to write home about... sure the greater the correction, the greater the moving of the needle.. and some peeps or a wee bit more sensitive than others, but part of being in bitcoin and being in for a longer time should be allowing more and more abilities to pee pare our lil selfies for extremes. that have happened historically and are likely to continue to happen in spite of whatever bulltards (#nohomo) are theoretically asserting about supercycle blah blah blah.. which is hardly even factually based beyond sounding like it could happen (not even saying that supercycle could not happen, but seems way the fuck too premature to be hitching my wagon to that kind of a horse).


I appreciate the joke aspect, but in the end, if we want to attempt to consider matters somewhat realistically, bitcoin is built in such a way that it welcomes all to use it however the fuck they like... good, bad, ugly and hostile.  Sure, we can engage in some denigrating of various uses, including denigrating hostility and calling everything non-bitcoin as a kind of scam (which yours truly and others tend to do), but in the end, anyone can  find their niche in bitcoin, including roger ver, craig wright, china, usa, venezuela, iran, north korea, and negativity flavor of the day elon the wishy washy.


Puzzle over dee head.   

Glad to see you back hairy bairy.... you gonna stick around for a while this time or what #nohomo?


Many of us likely recall the intensity of China's late 2016 somewhat surprise locking down exchanges within their jurisdictions to require KYC and likely the jumping through a variety of other hurdles before anything could be done in terms of exchanging coins, or withdrawing value - which seems to have had fucked their citizens out of being able to have value mobility during the 2017 BTC price run - and I seem to recall that it took a fucking long time for that situation to somewhat get resolved... which still seemed to have had the ultimate effect on certain aspects of their local peeps rather than putting any kind of a meaningful dent in the then overall bitcoin market besides likely scaring some weak hands from failing to buy BTC when they should have and/or causing some of those same weak hands from selling too much BTC too soon.

In other words, no problema.. roll with the punches.. and see how it all plays out... how much more of a correction you expecting.. what are the odds, greater than 50/50?  Are you preparing ur lil selfie (not referring to you Wekkel since you seem to have largely established ur self as a mostly not weakie peakie) for any BTC price direction including, but not limited to UP? (protip: historically many peeps fail/refuse to meaningfully and adequately pee pare their lil selfies for UPpity)

Glad that I could bring a tear to your eye.


















NOT!!!!





Snap out of your lovey dovey, homer!!!!!!

Funny what peeps gonna focus upon in any story (artistic piece).

Based on where I was at, I was thinking that the plastic bag filled item was a kind of sauce, but it might have had some food items too... because she got excited about whatever taste she was getting from it - which I am doubting would have happen so quickly from a pure sauce. I was not even super slow in reaching her.. but I am kicking my lil-selfie a wee bit because I could have likely gotten to her a few seconds quicker would have been enough to stop her from gulping down.. the bag.. and I am not even concerned about the substance within the bag, actually (even though maybe I should rethink that part too, knowing some of the outrageous things that dogs might get interested in eating sometimes and they are surely not shied away from foods that would cause humans to vomit from just thinking about getting their mouths close to it).



That's what they say about tofu, too.... supposedly tofu can be made without hardly any flavor or smell, but it will absorb the flavors and smell of the surrounding food.. but who wants to become a soyboy...? surely not this cat.   .. and the gels would, presumably, be of even less nutritional value.. even though you are seeming to want to attribute some kind of potential superpowers to them... hahahahah...  



Of course, that is understandable... and part of the riches is already there.. so there can be a little bit of a dilema going on in respect to the marshallow experiment (aka delayed gratification test).


Perhaps?   But each of us should know that close to 40% corrections in BTC are well within reason, and surely you might be able to notice that I have hardly any sympathies (not even referring specifically to LFC here) to guys who had been either describing correction limitations of 30%, and even seeming to suggest that even whatever whimpy limitations they were conjuring up were going to be spike down in price anyhow, suggesting that we are all going to know them when we see them and be able to buy the dip and kumbaya kumbaya through each of them.. and historically speaking any of us should be able to appreciate that while we are going through greater levels of dippening, we are achieving such greater levels for "reasons" including that they frequently feel real as fuck and never ending, even when there are no solid reasons to identify beyond momentum and some likely-to-be FUD spreading talking points.

By the way, whether we believe that Mindrust's story was true or not, he surely showed quite a few signs of emotionalism along the way, so it ends up that regular members here (whether referring to yours truly or other members like ur lil selfie or LFC or anyone else), are showing some of our ways of thinking and our level of emotionalism and even some of us are showing some of our levels of preparedness that could lend (or even detract) from some credibility in terms of how well our plans might match with our emotions.. so I am not even saying that it is an easy thing to attempt to match our actual financial plans/strategies/tactics, with our emotions, but probably we would end up getting fewer instances of panic (whether exaggerated or not) if we are able to achieve a decent amount of matching...

And, yeah, when the BTC price is moving violently and beyond expectations, those can become very considerable tests regarding the degree of successfulness of our matching of our strategies to our sentiments.. and teach us if some kind of tweak might be necessary.. so as I attempted to suggest to LFC.. seems to me that a move (hypothetically speaking of course because I do not really know the exact LFC details) from 5% sales to 25% seems really fucking outrageous.. merely based upon a drop that should have already been within the expectations of what could reasonably happen.. and fuck those assertions that rule out 50% or greater corrections during a bull market.  

Look at the goddamned bitcoin charts.  Hardly even any meaningful correction since September 2020.. and peeps trying to suggest (or even believing pie in the sky) that 50% or greater corrections are not possible in a bull market blah blah blah..  

whatevers.. I feel like I am starting to repeat myself, and I don't even like to talk too much about bearish projections.. even when it starts to seem obvious that we have entered into a bear market,. and probably take way the hell more than 60% and drug out corrections before you are even going to get any concession from me about actually being in a bear market....



Yeah but even though you have decent likelihoods of being correct about inferences that $100k ish or more are largely within reasonable realms of this price cycle, there are still some folks who may be better served (at least psychology - and perhaps financially as well) from some greater shavings off along the way.. Bob seemed to have benefited from that - even though many of us might have some objective concerns about some of his past sales or even some of his current tactics - but the main thing is that it is working for him and for his assessment of his situation.



You know round numbers can provide some resistance, but end up getting considerably overshot once they do get overshot.. so hopefully whatever plan you have attempts to account for that historical dynamic that we have seen in bitcoin.


Agreed about some of the difficulties in making some sales that may or may not be necessary, and maybe that could be part of the justification of getting used to it at various increments along the way rather than waiting for 100x or greater profits or whatever happens to be your threshold.

Remember the simple sane savings (not exactly a sane guy, but whatever), even he was suggesting a starting point at 10x profits or something like that.. so jesus fucking christ, waiting for 100x or whatever before even starting causes a quasi-insane guy (RIP) to appear sane... hahahahahaha.



You are starting to sound unrealistic at this time.  Don't let any thread or pride or whatever to cause much interferrence in assessing your own individual circumstances.. and yeah maybe you want to be a good role model and yeah maybe you might not disclose certain details, but ultimately, fuck the WO.. in terms of making your decisions..

yeah, sure I have great appreciation for both the existence of this thread and my abilities to learn and to share information within the thread, but I still believe that there should be hardly any value in the objectification of a strategy that each and everyone of us should be striving to personalize.. which might not exactly have any objective answer.

So sure, it is possible, that some of us could create systems in which we never ever ever sell any BTC because we are otherwise able to finagle a variety of arrangements to leverage our BTC or we just have a variety of other assets that we might have even been able to acquire because of having and managing our BTC stash....

So for example, if some of us have approached the accumulation of 500 BTC, and that would be over $21 million in todays prices, what  the fuck difference is it going to make if you shave off a couple of million?  Even if you have only 50 BTC (which would be more than $2.1 million) and you shave off a couple of BTC or you set a personal goal that you never want to go below 50BTC, but even that might not seem realistic if BTC prices go up 10x from here to $430k-ish and then all of a sudden you have the $21million value issue.. and do you really need to keep all of that value in BTC..?

Sure each of us does need to decide those matters including if we want to gain status in the BTC holdings department relative to other BTC holders, and even though I personally have never aspired to such personal status comparisons, there might be something wrong with me - and sure maybe if you get closer and closer, then you might start to make those kinds of aspirations for your self... so if I had not been selling along the way, maybe I could have had 20% or more value from focusing on accumulating BTC... but I am not even sure if prudent management of finiances works like that even though there are quite a few instances of people getting even more rich as fuck by concentrating their wealth.. but some of those end up in corruption too.. even thinking of Elon in this instance with the extent of his interweavings with government subsidies and likely exploitation of peeps and walking contradictions in order to get higher levels of wealth.


Ok... fine.. maybe you are not devolving into weird.  I frequently have asserted that one or two UPpity cycles might not be enough for peeps to transition into fuck you status.. and gosh it could take a decent number of peeps 4 cycles or more, so yeah, if you are just having concerns about crossing a personal threshhold then that might be reasonable.. even though I continue to repeat that you cannot fucking be relying on those upper bounds when you are figuring out what to do on a personal level.. and how fucking long will it take to cross $100k is one thing, but how long it will take to stay sustainably above $100k is a whole other question, and you better fucking get more patients if you are waiting to really be able to meaningfully act with prices only above $100k.. because seems to me that we hardly can rest assured about numbers that are in the future rather than banking on numbers that are in the past.. such as my choice of the 208-week moving average - which is currently at about $12,500 and your previously mentioning of $20k which you seem to be mentioning merely to appease guys like me rather really engaging in real world calculations based on such numbers.. which again seems way fucking more realistic to be doing rather than focusing on ephemeral tops that may or may not happen, even if they have price prediction models that give them relatively high probabilities.

I know I am being overly harsh about your post.. and surely it is nothing personal.. because I am arguing with your ideas.. which you are repeating and I believe deserve to be argued with, even though I appreciate a lot of the specifics that you ongoingly provide regarding how you are thinking about the BTC price performance (and expectations) matter.


I completely agree with ideas that various other moneys of ours can get really freed up by merely having our BTC, even if we do not sell one fucking satoshi.

In other words, let me describe some personal dynamics, I have a fiat cashflow that has had some decent amounts of fluctuation through the years that I have been in bitcoin, and my earlier years in bitcoin such as late 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 and maybe even into 2017, I was using portions of that cashflow to buy more BTC, and even though I felt that I had acquired a sufficiently enough quantity of BTC by the end of 2014, I could not really resist continuing using some of my cashflow to buy more bitcoin.

Depending on the point that I am trying to make, I have troubles characterizing each of my years but even by 2018 through present, I have decided to take on as variety of projects and even to cause myself considerable expenses that both go beyond my cashflow but also cause me to have to no longer use what used to be extra portions of my cashflow for purchasing BTC... so even though I might not be spending my BTC, I am using the BTC as a kind of psychological and financial assurance that allows me to spend very much larger percentages of my other cashflow and fiat denominated assets/currencies/values that I might have otherwise felt compelled to hang onto if I did not have the BTC in the background... so even if banks do not want to recognize my BTC and various third parties want to give me shitty-ass terms (even considerable risk) to collateralize my BTC, they can fuck themselves, because I have a way of valuating my BTC that I would speculate to be way more accurate than them... and serves my interests better than any attempt that I would have to create a relationship with a third party in regards to the BTC that I hold.


Apparently Elon does not understand or he does not want to understand.  He seems to have shown some of his true colors which is probably way better than if some of us might have become more reliant upon him and he had attempted to undermine bitcoin in a less public way.. not that he might not be attempting to do both.. who fucking knows?  He seems far from a bitcoin ally, even if some of his behaviors can be helpful for attempting to learn, and his distracting shenanigans may have given some additional boosting sense of community to miners to signal for taproot and to send a decently-sized fuck you in the direction of the Elon-reliant FUD spreading fucks.

I see 85% taproot right now as I type, and not enough to signal for this difficulty period (since already 11% of blocks have come through as negative for this period), but current signaling is surely showing really good chances to have a strong fighting chance for getting above 90% for our next difficulty period that starts in about 10 days.. and if BTC is under attack at that time (10 days can be a long time in bitcoinlandia), I am thinking that miners will step up to the plate rather than letting fucktwats like Elon and other retards push around bitcoin or try to proclaim what bitcoin is or what it is not.  Gonna be nice to see Elon get recked as fuck (if he continues to play his cards badly.. whatever cards he might have left.. no need to be sympathetic for him.. especially when he flip flopped like he did).



I doubt that Elon even wants to grapple with the level of details that you provided, AlcoHoDL.  He was attempting to play the momentum, and it could well end up blowing up upon him, even if there may have been some short-term success for whatever he was attempting to achieve - whether it was showing his lil selfie as relevant or just getting attention or whatever.



I know that I am responding to you 10 hours later.. ;. .yet in any event .. good day to you, too.. and fuck I have to write my own lil selfie a list of things that I want to get done in the next day or two.. I am feeling a bit lost at the moment because I had a few projects that I had been wrapping up that did not really allow me to some bigger picture prioritizing.

I doubt that anyone is going to object to anyone who may have either a different perspective, a different way of framing things or even someone who his either high on confidence or wants to create such an impression, yet some of us will get irritated when you might be coming off as if you are trying to sell something or if you are striving to provide more credibility to yourself beyond the postings of this particular account.  I have seen a quite a few brand new accounts gain a lot of credibility without necessarily having to refer to some vague account that they might have had.. and also just referring to multi-accounts seems to be inviting your account to get red tagged or even other administrative actions through your "look at me" look at me" behaviors.

Acting like a normie and sharing bitcoin related information should not by itself trigger anyone to want to red tag you.. or at least I doubt so.

Of course, some people do like to put out high level prediction confidence, and sometimes that will work for a while, and surely historically I have had troubles with members either using really high percentages in their confidence of future events ...... so we will see if you last around here.. you are kind of coming off, already, as if you can already perceive your forum days to be numbered... so hard to put very much trust in someone who is presenting their lil selfies as a potential flash in the pan (whether caused by self or caused by forum admins).  

I liked your first post, thewaterloggers. 

Then you have to come off as an arrogant know it all fuck (only after two posts, go figure?.. that's too bad.. we gotta pour one out for you already.. .you dweeb).

Yeah, right we surely appreciate talking about a variety of BTC price dynamics and theories about the BTC price in this here thread, but nobody knows the BTC price before it happens... so you can fuck off with your asserting that you are smarter than everyone else and hiding the ball with your wanna be sorcerer bullshit.



Fair enough.  I may have read too much into your post, and of course, we are in a public thread here, so even though I was getting on your case (and thanks for some specifics, too), there are likely some guys who are in a very similar situation as you (sure maybe not exactly the same, but you know what I am saying.. sufficiently similar as to be able to relate a lot to your situation... and there might even be certain ways that I am close to your situation - except for the fact that I am shaving a decent amount off on a continuous basis.. and not even saying that is the best method for anyone beyond myself because I get a sufficient amount of my own criticism to even suggest that my system is not even good for me.. go figure?  I thought that I knew my own situation including additional relevant factors that I do not tend to share in public threads.

So, yeah, ONLY you are going to know certain aspects of your particulars in such a way that tipping points are caused at certain areas that may well be tipping points at different locations for other guys... whether we are talking about cashflow, other investments, view of bitcoin versus other investments, timeline, risk tolerance and/or skills, abilities and time to learn and tweak systems along the way that might include reallocation, trading or even employment of financial instruments.



I say that about myself very frequently in recent times.. maybe just me, but sometimes, there are reasons that I have to explain my situation to people who do not really know my situation, and once I get to know the person and I end up going into some details, I tend to use that "lucky" expression a lot - including with people who I know have fucked up their finances a lot.. and I have been talking with them about bitcoin a lot in the past 4-6 years.. and sometimes they even believe that I have been talking with them about bitcoin for longer than I have been.. but whatever.. deep down, I actually consider some of them as almost like incompetent to be able to actually take steps that they need to take to get started in bitcoin.. so if I am going to continue the conversation without making the whole thing too personal and too confrontational.. I describe the various ways that I have been lucky through the years.

At the same time, I think that I spent so much time trying to help them with information.. so for example, if they say, they needed a loan from me, I am not even sure that I could do it.. because they continue to fail and refuse to take anything close to action that would help them to get going down what is quite likely to be a better path.. and maybe some of it is my fault too... because I am never giving any guarantees.., and some of these peeps need guarantees.. which I won't do. 

It continues to be tough.. and can you imagine the day when 1 out of 10 people that you actually meet in real life actually has some kind of clue about bitcoin and has actually taken a stake in bitcoin .. even if a modest stake....   We are still in such early days..




I think that many will... but we will have a variety of ways to counter.. rrrrrriiiiiiggggghhhhhtttt.

 





Yep.. and they can get bigger.. that's part of what makes them even more wrenching.


We are probably NOT even in territories where recovery is less likely than not.. or even less than 55%... I hate putting odds on anything in the short term that goes much further than that.. and sure when we are in the middle of a dip.. it's difficult to know if another shoe will drop.. but if we start to get recovery momentum.. the recovery starts to build upon itself and then seem inevitable.. and then pretty soon we did not recall so much how painful the correction was... and surely the no coiners cannot relate at all (except that they tend to be cheering for the opposite, those dweebs) because they fucking do not have any stake.



You do not need to tell me, you fuck (no homo)


 

You also know that I bust your balls a wee bit, partly because I have seen a lot of posts from you through the years, and you tend to provide decent specifics from time to time that allow for discussion points that are shared by lots of other peeps.



I get a bit conservative in these times too.. so in that sense, I really don't see how at this point that any of us can really become overly comfortable that the bottom is in until we get back above $50k.. but of course, every lil bit of continued movement up provides more and more feelings of a cushion.. in regards to our current $42,100 bottom being in for this cycle.. and yeah, the degree of cushion remains both a production of quantity of cushion but also amount of time above certain price points.


For sure, that is a nice little chart.. cannot deny that... to show if we are testing support or in the middle or testing resistance.. and don't even necessarily agree with those exact numbers in order to get a sense for where we might be at - at any given point in time.

It's not that complicated Wlex77.

Sure, you may well need to study the space for a while, so if you are brand new to almost any topic, then anything is likely to sound plausible and feasible, but the longer that you study a space and if you are able to engage in critical thinking then you are going to be able to better recognize the difference between good information and misinformation.

You are more than welcome to participate in this thread to try to sort through some of these matters, but if you devolve into nonsense about shitcoins or you cannot attempt to figure out that bitcoin is different from shitcoins, then you might have to sort through those issues in another thread.

There is plenty of information to argue the case that Tesla is way the fuck over valued, and bitcoin is generally undervalued, but it could take a long time for someone to come to those kinds of conclusions if they are just thinking about the matters from a variety of superfiical information sources including having some inabilities to actually understand what the fuck is bitcoin (even though it may seem apparent on the surface, it likely is not).

So even if the supposed narcissism of Elon has intelligence beyond his varied pronouncements, in the past week or so, he has shown himself to be a bit of a retard when it comes to either understanding bitcoin or to even acknowledging that he does not really understand it, so instead of admitting that he does not really understand bitcoin, he acts like he is some kind of smarter than everyone else source about bitcoin, and sure that presentation might work for those who do not know much about bitcoin, but it is not going to work at all for people who have even a medium amount of understanding of bitcoin.


You are a stubborn fuck.

I will concede on that one.

Uncle.  Uncle.   Uncle.


I had to edit my response, because I read your above post again Richy and I see that I misread stubbornness (like you had put a NOT in there) into a non-stubborn post... I think that I rushed my response because I just wanted to call you a name when you did not deserve it, this time.  myyyy baaaaaaddddd.  I know that I have done that before too.. with you Richy.. so yeah.. a kind of pattern with me, but I don't dislike you.. just fighting my inner selfie, that's all.


 #nohomo