 Lambchop's real hobby, other than insightful commentary on the state of crypto |
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Hehe, good ol' wall thread. Always lighting the rockets and posting the trains right /before / it'll be clear if we should light the rockets / post the train pics  Although, the entirely expected absence of a certain brony troll is definitely an improvement  |
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My words explained in short term  Nice visual summary, thanks. I have a preference for what I'd like to see, but I appreciate your analysis, as always. One thing : I like the current volume. It's, imo, the strongest argument in favor of upwards breakout. |
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No, no network fee paid by users.
Bitstamp seems to bundle several withdrawal requests into one big transaction, to save on fees and not spam the network, I suppose.
If any period of time that no one withdraw Bitcoins, that need to wait a long time to join in with you? Never happened to me so far. Either they always have enough people withdrawing, or eventually, they send it out alone anyway. Note that large withdrawals (maybe 50, 100 btc) seem to be "manually" confirmed by someone at Bitstamp, but even that never took longer than an hour or two for me. Smaller withdrawals go out within minutes in my experience. |
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I've been holding out for lower to buy back a bit more but it feels exactly like waiting for $1 back in bitcoinica days. That never happened and instead bitcoinica swallowed my fiat.
So this time round I'll pin my actions on someone else's indicator so I can blame them when it all goes wrong ;)
Everything I have on bitstamp has just been converted to BTC. It's feeling like about time....
Haha, you bastard. So now I have blood on my hands, huh? Well, let's see how it goes. Right now yesterday's little rally that pushed the signal change looks like it's already losing steam again. Clench your ass cheeks, that's all I'm saying :) Closer than any other suggestions :) MA50 is part of the signal conditions. Oda,
When, if ever, will you share your indicator? Why such a secret? I could understand if it was a weekly trading signal that you didnt want to give to the masses, but this is long term signal. Its harmless to let us know.
By letting us know we might even be able to help you refine it. Although, if not, we could just praise you more precisely for your brilliance.
Either way its a win win!
I don't know... I'm an intellectual hoarder? :D Seriously though: I don't think the exact choice of parameters is that remarkable, but the way I found them is maybe novel. Finance is not my field, so I have no idea yet how to go about it, but I think, somewhere far in the back of my mind, I'm wondering if I can maybe squeeze a publication out of that aspect. There, I said it. |
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Very impressive prediction oda.krell!  No, but seriously, I watch your posts carefully. Just in Mumbai at the moment and I should be out exploring but instead I'm in my room watching the bitcoin price. Sigh. Thanks  Seriously, go out and do more interesting stuff though. Price won't go all rocket most likely anyway (actually, I'm more thinking dip incoming). Mumbai sounds awesome. Wonder if I could tolerate the food... heard some horror stories from people with non-iron cast stomachs |
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Hey. Hope you guys don't mind if I stroke my cock ego a bit more in full public view Huh. Sure you're looking at the right thing? https://i.imgur.com/OCen3ZC.pnghttps://i.imgur.com/ZiGp4hA.pngBetween this (new Chinese volume peak, even higher than volume at capitulation bottom), the major Bitfinex market buys yesterday, and the ramping up of Bitstamp's bid/ask I already mentioned, I'd be seriously surprised if we don't make at least an attempt to get back to 380 within the next 10 days.Posted November 5th. November 10th:  Gotta milk it when you're right for a change |
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It's not that easy to do, bitstamp needs pics of your ID, you holding them, and notarised copies of everything with the pics of notarised copies taken at an angle.
That's new, then... He's bullshitting of course. High-res scan of passport / ID, plus utility bill of corresponding address. Same as always. |
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EDIT. didnt read the disclaimer 3 very carefully...
Hehe, thanks for adding that. Yes. Assuming we are indeed going up, a good discretionary trader might want to wait for a dip first. But that's really not what this signal is intended to do: ideally, it fires once every few months, into a larger up- or downtrend, with little consideration for where price is in the smaller resolution - because the next signal (if things work out as intended) is at a price so far away anyway that the small difference of the dip doesn't matter. At least, that's how it worked in the back-test. |
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Here we are. First 'live' signal change surviving a period close. Important reminder: read the disclaimers and explanations at the end of the post before doing anything stupid.LW v3.10 signals BUY at 372 USD, from previous SELL at 623 USD on 2014-07-21 (back-test only).  Disclaimer 1: None of the above is financial advice. It's a public "experiment" of a highly speculative algorithmic trading method. I'm posting the results for your entertainment, and my own. Anything else is your own decision and risk. Disclaimer 2: The signal has been quite profitable in the back-test, but the total low number of signals (by design), and few corresponding trades, means there is very little statistical power behind the results. If you feel there is a substantial risk the results so far are due to chance, you are probably correct. Disclaimer 3: Even though all BUY signals have been profitable so far in the back-test, in more than one case price dropped briefly after a BUY signal, while the method continued holding BTC, before it went up again. This is to say, Disclaimer 2 warns you that there is a risk the signal is not profitable at all, while Disclaimer 3 warns you that the signal might be profitable in the longer run (a month or two), but could incur a loss in USD terms at first. |
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so did we get confirmation that the 7k buy was legit?
So far, the 7k buy is just the result of jl2012's calculations, but at least it wasn't reversed a few days later like before, so it's more likely it is not a mistake. Confirmation will come if and when the fund officially lists its total BTC holding, which they seem to do about monthly, I think. Someone correct me please if I'm wrong about that. |
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Not yet, but I'm watching it like a hawk Next calculation period closes in an hour or two, will update if there's a signal change surviving the close. |
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No, no network fee paid by users.
Bitstamp seems to bundle several withdrawal requests into one big transaction, to save on fees and not spam the network, I suppose.
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@jl2012
Hope you're not taking this newbie account's accusations serious.
You're doing the absolutely best that can be done with the incomplete information that is available.
If someone is dumb enough to run a 1:1 strategy following the reverse engineered suspected account changes of the fund, that's his problem alone. Everyone else with two brain cells to rub together will use it a bit more cautiously: as an (imperfect) estimation of what the currently largest fund with a Bitcoin collateral is doing. Nothing more, nothing less.
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I'm afraid the post above is wrong.
Withdrawal fee is about twice as high as what he wrote.
It's zero.
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This rally up from $320 was not on a single one technical indicator. So much for the TA and smart trading on the bitcoion markets.
*sigh* Let's see where we go from here. I'm still not 100% convinced this latest trend will stick. But about your claim that this was completely off the radar... [...]
To me it looks like we could go all the way to ~340 for a re-test, and it would look a lot like April 16 to May 19 earlier this year. (Of course it would only be similar if there is good support at that level)
[...]  [...] https://i.imgur.com/OCen3ZC.pnghttps://i.imgur.com/ZiGp4hA.pngBetween this (new Chinese volume peak, even higher than volume at capitulation bottom), the major Bitfinex market buys yesterday, and the ramping up of Bitstamp's bid/ask I already mentioned, I'd be seriously surprised if we don't make at least an attempt to get back to 380 within the next 10 days. |
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What am I supposed to do?? Enter 20x leverage right here or wait for a dip??
Fucking christ
Not to be a dick or anything, but... if the question stresses you out like that, the answer is almost certainly "do not enter a factor 20 leveraged trade" (edit: completely independent of the direction of the trade) |
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ehm. i don't usually respond to troll posts, but it's saturday, so why not?
i still have all my xmr.
i have stated before i'll sell all mine if there's some crazy dramatic change to the emissions curve. that's still the way i feel. i am in support of fixing subsidy at 0.1 XMR when we reach it, to cause small amounts of inflation that help secure the chain, but that's it.
in the future, 2-3 years from now, if people want to come back and tell me that xmr was a premine, that they never had a chance to get in on it when it was cheap, direct them to this post and what the chart looked like at this time. xmr was here to buy, it was cheap, the tech is in the CN paper, we implemented the first database for CN core (not a page file), we published the first paper on a number of privacy issues, and i'm working hard to ensure a roll out of new privacy features in the near future. we've battled off several serious attacks and drama, and we've done it on our own dime. we never had a premine, we never had an instamine, we never had a tax.
i personally never sat around pumping the coin, etc etc etc. the tech behind it is good, so i always had faith. we reimplemented the ring sig algo and studied it intensely and couldn't break it. ecdh is trivially secure. the bitcoin core devs spoke favourably of the ring signature technology in the their sidechains paper.
gui for the node is really an afterthought, which was why we never shoved one out quickly. look at how many bitcoin-qts are left running these days; everyone uses a safer reimplementation of the bitcoin wallet or a webwallet because running a full node using 250 GB of bandwidth a month is silly for the end user. rest assured we're working on better solutions.
there's going to be a lot of stuff happening in the near future. dev is rolling along. if you wanna dump your coins now, go for it.
Whee. Let's untroll a troll's thread Anyway, quoted for truth, future reference, and general agreement. I've been on record before in the usual Monero threads that I am in support of a carefully chosen & community supported emission adjustment of XMR to overall more resemble that of BTC, but even if we disagree on this exact point, your post (and similar ones by the other devs) are the reason why I'm staying in this little experiment with a non-trivial position, downtrend or not. Keep up the good work, is what I'm saying here. |
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I should also clarify that I'm talking about gains relative to the overall market. When the entire market is moving up due to the addition on money from external sources, it's easy for individual traders to see patterns that look like successful strategies, but aren't in fact.
Imagine 100 gamblers playing slot machines that start out at 99.5% payout, then as they continue to play the operators gradually increase the payout past 100% to 110%, then lower it back down to 100% and finally back to where it started.
That's what the infusion of the Baby Boomer's 401k money did to the market, and also to the perceptions of the people involved in it.
Every strategy that appeared to work from the early 1980s until the mid 2000s only did so because the market had been temporarily turned into a positive sum game by tax policy and other regulatory manipulation.
It was never real or sustainable.
Another fair point about the practical side of trading for perhaps a majority of market participants, but we're discussing whether profit is possible in principle. Obviously, serious investigations into market factors are taking your objection into account, either by comparing the factor's results against the market baseline, or by investigating time scales where the larger market direction doesn't play a role. I really invite you to take another look at the Harvey paper, especially because it is extremely critical of what they call a "zoo of new factors", the majority of which are likely just statistical artifacts. The flip side is however that the factors that do survive the additional scrutiny are not easy to dismiss. So, no objection if someone is skeptical whether Elliot Wave this or MACD that is a viable long-term strategy. But the notion that markets are (more or less) unconditionally adhering to weak-form efficiency is hard to sustain in the face of the evidence. |
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Love the meme But, probably not true. The train might be leaving the station, but probably not at breakneck speed at first, and almost certainly with one or more serious slowdowns in the near future. And why do you think so? Because we have a long, crushing, bear market in our back, and assuming that we are going up from here, it'll take a while before market participants will stop taking every minor price swing upwards as an opportunity to take profits, and a real rally will start to form. Look at mid 2013: first doubling of price took ~2 months (July, August). Then one month of stagnation, pierced by the SR crash, then next price doubling in 1 month. From that moment on, things went really fast, another two doublings in 1 month. Not saying it will exactly play out like that (although that would be great), just that a rally needs time to gather speed, so the "last chance to get on the train NOW" is premature, in my opinion, though understandable |
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