This seems to be lacking context. I don't understand it.  Mined in 2010.. yes I get that, but it looks like they were moved.

And then sold?  Sure they were transferred, but accidentally?  And where is the 2021 info pertaining to these coins? Oh? that's your speculation about something that is missing from the evidence.

To me, it just looks like three days ago some 2010 coins were moved... and why would anyone sell that many coins at once, if they had not been moved since 2010?


that could be... or moving to a more secure wallet. but it would seem that they should be split up if that were the case.  I cannot tell from the information provided.


Well you have to stay within your own scope of abilities because it would not be good to overdo whatever you are doing and then not be able to continue to build your BTC stash... so you may well have a good 10 years of accumulation ahead of you, especially if you are just getting started investing.   

When I mentioned front-loading in my post, I am not necessarily referring to loans, even though loans could be a form of front-loading that may or may not be reasonable depending on context - including your ability to service the loans apart from the price direction of the underlying investment (namely bitcoin in this case).  You can also front-load your investment into bitcoin by being overly aggressive in your DCA or even if you were to have lump sum funds that are available to you, whether transferring from another investments, some kind of payment for goods and/or services that you received or some other reason that you might come across some extra funds.. presumptively not from robbing banks or similar kinds of ways to come across extra funds.


You might be correct that there are not as many of the ETF clients that are going to jump ship in one or two years, but they are still individuals, governments and institutions, they are not one monolith and the coins are not Blackrock's.  Blackrock is merely an intermediary that has to follow the exposure of their clients in regards to having to buy and sell the bitcoin to cover the sold BTC spot price ETF shares.

From my perspective, you still seem to be grasping at a long-shot theory, while trying to make it sound like it has some kind of realistic chance of playing out.. when maybe at best it has 20% odds of happening.

And, yeah, I don't claim to be an expert in assigning odds, even though the ETFs seem to be way more sticky in terms of the kind of capital that they are likely getting flowing in..

These are likely not the "in and out" kind of guys that you are painting them to be, and at the same time, the BTC spot ETFs are successful beyond the wildest of expectations and they are generating their own demand/hype to some extent that seems to justify something like a 2x to 3x BTC price appreciation based on flows that are going in the buying direction and NOT likely easy to change, until maybe after the 2x to 3x BTC UPpity plays out... so you are striving and stretching to argue the contrary point of view that does not line up with actual on the ground facts.


Sure.  I believe in cycles too, and yeah, in terms of the timeline we are closer to March 2020, but part of the problem is that in March 2020, we had not yet reached an ATH.. so we did not get into noman's land or even close, we were still struggling getting past the early July 2019 high of $13,880.. .. so right before the March 2020 crashening (kind of like a quasi-black swan event) we were ONLY dancing with $10k at best which was ONLY half the 2017 ATH.. and in this case we have already breached the 2021 ATH, momentum remains in that direction because buy support is more than keeping up. .... this thing is not overly frothy.. which would be the case if buying support is not able to keep up with the price, which surely is not the current case (ie facts on the ground).


No way Jose.  It is not obvious.  In 2021, we had two peaks, so right now the BTC price is not even close to peaking, so it is more like December 2020 when it was passing the 2017 ATH for the first time. .. or like December/January 2017 when it was passing the 2013 ATH for the first time.  Sure there can be snafus and hanging up points, but we have unusual circumstances this time with more than 10x the demand - even accounting for (or adjusting for) increased prices.  The amount of money coming in way out strips the supply of BTC available on the market, including that a lot of HODLers had pulled their coins from exchanges and even normal BTC supply channels are drying up.  

Yeah, some of the cold storage supply is going to come back online, but a lot of it is likely not coming back for sale until prices are over $100k, so there is not enough supply to go around to meet the way increasing demand, and even the demand is not even close to exhausted, they are barely coming online, and they are even having more demand than any of the ETF providers had expected.


It would seem to be better to be open minded, but hey you do you.


I am prepared for either direction, and I hardly give any shits about either direction, especially since this UPpity is a bit premature.

But I am not going to fight the facts, which seems to be that we are in the middle of nomans land and heading uppity.. and the best you likely could hope for is that there might be some additional resistance somewhere between $84k and $94k prior to us getting too close to $100k since we should already know that $100k is not going to hold, once we get within a 4-5% of it... Yeah, it is likely to be passed through a few times, but we are at a point of the cycle that you cannot be putting much credit into downity.. the trend is your friend and it happens to be UPpity. and that is how bull markets work.


I see the price going up. and I don't consider it to be going up too fast, especially given context.


There is something off about your framing... too bad you couldn't have just stayed a bit more of a bulltard, then you would not be in your current situation, wishing for downity that is not very likely to happen.


I am not much of a price predictor anyhow.  All I tend to do is prepare for either direction, and I let the price come to me.

Sure, I might adjust my orders a bit, but not very much, so for example in noman's land, I still sell but I increase my increments and decrease the size of the sales.. so I make little adjustments based on some of my ideas of price, but I stick iwth the overall system of buying on the way down and selling on the way up.  I have been doing that since mid-to-late 2015, and sure I made a few mistakes, but they system largely stayed in place the whole time without too much prediction involved....

Oh for example, I had to remove  some of my orders in 2022 and spread them out more and even bring in some outside money because the price went way lower than expected. .I probably had around a 10% cushion to go below the 200-WMA, and the price, as we know, ended up going around 35% below the 200-WMA, so I had to make adjustments, so that I would not run out of money, but that did not involve selling BTC, just changing the way that my buy orders were structured.. and then yeah, buy on the way down and sell on the way up, so there was selling on the way up, and so there may have been tweaks here and there to attempt to account for where we were, how we got there and even thoughts of where we might go.


I am not going to deny large corrections to be both possible, but to have decently high odds of happening.  It is also quite possible that BTC prices will settle in the range of $120k to $180k in 2024. and then perhaps (or likely) go higher in 2025, so just between now and $180k, I surely expect some decently-sized corrections, including at least a couple 30% or more that might even get in the 50% plus levels.... but they are still not seeming too likely prior to our at least getting through noman's land, and generally  (and historically) speaking once getting all the way through noman's land, it does not tend to be likely to correct all the way back through it.. so call me a sceptic on any theories expecting those levels of corrections, even though they could happen.


Good.  That way I don't have to write anything more, either.


Again.  No further comment needed by this here cat.


I did not say it is impossible.  I am still considering the 200-WMA as the bottom and that is currently at around $31,700.  But that does not mean that I am going to go argue that we need to revisit those lower prices or to suggest down before up, especially when we are still well in the middle of noman's land, which has an additional UPPity momentum built into the concept.


We still consider every possibility, and we assign very low odds to your scenario, such as less than 20%.

You seem to be wanting to assign much higher odds to your scenario, such as, perhaps, higher than 50% odds.  You were even suggesting that guys shave off some of their cornz so they can prepare for your scenario.  How is that playing out right now?


You are creating some kind of imaginary argument.

yeah I remember 2019.  We went right around 3.5x from April to June from $4,200 to $1,3880.. and yeah that was amazing as fuck.. and so sure guys might have started to consider that $10k might end up holding, and it did not.. and so we got back down to $6k-ish and Tone Vays and some of those guys were proclaiming that the 2013 ATH of $1,163 had to be retested before we would be ready to go up. and there were others in that same camp, never happy with the extent of our correction being enough... and so yeah, $6k probably would have been the bottom for that period.. except we ended up getting the March 2020 events.. so yeah flukes happen, and they probably are somewhat expected to continue to happen.. so I will give you that part.. the part that flukes can sometimes happen and they can happen again, but it still seems a bit short-sighted to be preparing for a fluke.. that seems more like gambling. which seems to be what you are doing and you have been doing for a couple of months when you announced your strategy and continuously seeming to want to talk your book into existence..


Sure they count.  But I doubt that they are as flimsy and fickle as you are making them out to be.. yet you can believe what you want. with your current "down before up theory."


Yes.  negatives can happen. and even panic.  But you are not going to get me to change where I think that we are at, and I am not much of a down person anyhow, even if I have some decent senses that it is going down.  The best you would get me to do is to pull some of my buy orders so I could buy lower, but I usually don't even do that, even when I think that I am buying into a falling knife, because I learned fairly early on that it tends to be better to just leave my buy orders and my sell orders in spite of my views... and frequently the price changes at kind of weird places anyhow, so it is not like I would have been able to predict it and to buy back much better than where my orders had already been placed.


Ok.  sorry about assuming more than I should have had about your position or your exact price point. which I already understand that there is both discretion and there could be rapidly changing circumstances that can change the approach of any trader/gambler.

I get the sense that we have already been quite stable through this whole rise from $25k to $69.2k, and only recently did we get a bit more instability, but if the BTC price is bouncing around a bit, that still does not mean it is not going to continue to ultimately move up and to pass through no man's land along with the presumption that it is passing through noman's land.


I never said up only.  I am just seeming to assign different odds than uie-pooie and you are thereafter trying to proclaim that I am an UP ONLY kind of guy.. which is pure bullshit.  I always prepare for either direction, even if I might talk BIGger about one direction rather than the other, and frequently I prefer to talk about up rather than down, even if I might sense down, I don't usually tend to cheer for it, even if I might sometimes fear it or even expect it... I don't tend to talk about downity in these here parts, especially as a kind of downity promoter.. it is a rare thing for me.. even though I will sometimes acknowledge various actions that I am taking to prepare for downity, just in case.. which sometimes members will even consider those kinds of discussions to be overly bearish.. .but I still will make such assertions from time to time.

But why do it now?  Especially when we are both in UPPity and we are in an even more special area of UPpity.. and furthermore we are in a kind of bear punishment mode.. which has been really great to be experiencing it again.. in that sense we are in a situation similar to early 2019.. but we are in a later state of the cycle.. or like late 2020 crossing into new ATHs and the price still going up and refusing to correct (until it does)... and yeah there is always the beartard trying to ruin the moo.

keep calling for down over and over and over...

I remember Tera (or was it Tera2) in the 2017 bull market.. kept calling for down all the way from $2k all the way up until $20k, and then finally when s/he was correct, many members were calling her/him a genius.  Yeah, we get those beartards continuously saying that down is imminent, and sure sooner or later they will end up being correct.


Sure. What you say is true, but it still does not mean that UP is not going to continue until morale of the bears improves.

Some of you traders put way the fuck too much emphasis in various squigglies and you also need to stop the fuck treating Bitcoin as if it were some kind of a mature asset and fail/refuse to sufficiently/adequately account for exponential s-curve adoption based on Metcalfe principles and network effects (in the Trace Mayer school of thought).. .. so king daddy is going to continue to punish you guys when you think you can hold it down and part of the world's transfer of wealth has to do with some of these stepping up periods of UPPpty that fail refuse to correct back down, and if you are not sufficiently/adequately in during the step up period, you end up not being part of the receiver side of that particular stage of the transfer of wealth from the nocoiners to the coiners.

The punchline remains that you need to be the fuck in during these transfer of wealth periods (or step up periods or whatever they are called when the price goes up and it does not correct back down and give you another chance to get back in and blah blah blah). It has happened many times in bitcoin's history, and it is likely going to continue to happen, until morale improves.


We are far from there, because if you had not noticed, BTC's price was artificially repressed during 2022 and even into until October 2023, which helps to contribute to these kinds of explosive periods to make up for the prior suppression that had been happening earlier.  Yeah they can be called natural part of the happenings. but at the same time, it still results in a bit of explosiveness in both directions to make up for the other direction, so perhaps dee cornz has to get back to where it should have had been which currently seems to be gravitating towards the $120k to $180k price arena within the next 3-12 months...and then at some point reassess where we are at from within that.


Great.  I am glad that you are taking note.  In the mean time, protip you might try to figure out a way to buy back those coins you sold at $48k, even if it might be at a loss.


You are sure spending a lot of time arguing for down, even though claiming to be prepared for either direction.


I am not trying to throw out history, either.  There surely are patterns and there are also periods in which dee cornz goes beyond the patterns while still staying within the patterns, but we might not be able to see that it is still within the pattern until we let time pass and we look back upon what had just happened that seemed to be unexpected, but still it was not as crazy as it seemed to be while we were going through it.


To the extent that I am preparing for either price direction, I doubt that I am failing to account for any of the possibilities, even though there are various unknowns that are always in the mix...and I just buy if the price goes down and sell if it goes up.. and make little adjustments here and there.


That comes later.  They likely need to get in before they are able to get out.. and we are seeing ongoing and continuous flow in rather than out, inspite various preseeding attempts and even sources of liquidity that seem to be drying up and continuously, ongoingly and persistently getting sucked into the ETFs.. much beyond expectations I might add.  Even if some of their inflow starts to dry up, it is still bullish.

Seems like doom and gloom if you believe these newbies are so dumb as to start selling... but yeah, hey anything can happen, and I am glad that at least one of us (you) is putting a decent amount of effort to prepare yourself, so you will be able to tell us "I told you so" when you end up being the ONLY one who saw it.


I am glad that you are so original. much more original than the various uber bulls, like yours truly.  and I am glad that you consider yourself to be smarter and such an original thinker.. as if some folks with opinions and assessments similar to mine are all parroting one another while you have the true insight and the nuanced perspective that happens to be able to see matters with more clarity.


My 2021 predictions (or assignment of odds for various price ranges and even a timeline) is still outstanding in Opening post 4 of my investment ideas thread.  I haven't updated them, yet.    I will likely need to update those probability assignments for this cycle (and to raise the numbers a bit, especially since the 200-WMA has gone up quite a bit since then, too), but it seems a bit early for for my plugging in the new numbers, yet.  I might need to unwittingly wait until the top of the cycle, like I did last time.  hahahahahha


You shouldn't generalize too much.  It is not polite.


Your theory is "more tested" than mine?  give me a break.


Yes.  Automation can sometimes dampen volatiliy, but it can also cause volatility to cascade.   So I don't disagree with those kinds of assessments.


Ok.  Sounds good to me.


It depends on how much you sold. Since you are claiming to not have sold very much then you might be o.k.  ... but many times guys like you who sell too much too soon (without admitting it) rationalize themselves into becoming more and more disgruntled.  So hopefully your situation is not going in that direction.


I am getting the sense that you must not know dee cornz too well.. the cornz is likely to become less stable rather than more stable in the coming 6-18 months give or take 3 months.


I am getting that impression.


No.  I just wrote my words in a kind of stream of consciousness kind of way.    


How am I supposed to know?  I mostly buy bitcoin to prepare for UP, and if down happens, then I buy more cornz in order to prepare more for up.

I got into bitcoin in order to be biased towards up.  I don't fuck around with trying to guess short term price moves, and I even attempt to set myself up in a way that I am protected no matter what, but part of the problem with bitcoin it has way the fuck outperformed my expectations.. and so be it.. icing on the cake.  I put in money that was extra and was going to be only 10% or so of my investment portfolio, and now it has caused my whole other 90% to appear as dwarfs.. mostly due to BTC price appreciation that went way beyond expectations.. a wind fall that has been lovely.. I am not going to complain.


I guess I might be lazy then.  Why do I have buy orders going down to $20k?


Selling anything beyond 5% at a time seems like a lot to me.. but hey, I sell about 5% every time the price doubles.. so I suppose I could be similar to you.. even though my BTC stash still seems to be mostly going up and doesn't really shrink very much.. .even though several mistakes have been made along the way, too.


Seems a bit misplaced to suffer from so much skepticism from the perspective of this here cat.  Especially after going through so much gruelling between May 2022 until about October 2023..


Fuck the institutions... but if you had not noticed bitcoin is open source, and we cannot stop who comes in or leaves, and if you think that they are going to be able to unduly influence dee cornz, you might not even understand dee cornz well enough.

Not that I am claiming to know what is going to happen, but I doubt that the fat cat institutions coming into bitcoin is really hurting bitcoin and there is nothing we can do about it anyway, except get out, like you suggested.. but I doubt that you are even treating it correctly.. you are acting as if they can naked short bitcoin, and that was what they were likely doing with the futures, but the BTC spot ETFS are another beast, when they are required to back up their shares with the underlying.


No problem.  Do what you gotta do (or what you want to do).


I stand corrected then.  Perhaps?


They are doing all kinds of shit right now.  And the ETFs are not just institutions, they are individual clients that are buying those products and some of the clients might be institutions but they might also be individuals and/or governments. Some got in early, others are just coming in and others will come in later.  The whole ETF inflows are just ramping up with so many variety of buyers, including new product offerings that are just rolling out and new RIAs that are just getting authorized to offer the various Bitcoin spot ETF products.  Some already know about BTC and others are just learning and others don't have a clue.. and yeah surely most of them are not very smart about bitcoin, but others are smart and/or able to learn fast.. there is variety in the underlying clients of the ETF products.


Again it is not just institutions.  Some of the institutions are just realizing that they can get Bitcoin through an ETF and some of them will come later.


Well you may well be ignoring reality.. because both is going on and happening at the same time.  


I am glad that you corrected me then.


We have to see how this year and at least part of 2025 play out before figuring out 2026, and you already know the pattern that 2026 would be expected to be a down year... but yeah, we cannot really know this far in advance.. but we can still tentatively keep the cycle frame as you already suggested.


You were telling guys to sell in order to prepare for down like you did.


Well if you are a long term investor rather than a trader, then congratulations and welcome to the club... yet I still have my doubts, especially since you spent a quite a bit of effort prognosticating doom and gloom which causes me to think that you are not very long and you may have sold too much too soon with anticipation of getting further long, and you may well have over did it.

But hey so what..  I might be placing too much expectations on you, but I was attempting to use your own statements and representations to the extent that you made any.

By the way it is hard to go along with your proclamation that you are no longer a degenerate trader when you are espousing trading ideas and trying to predict price movements.  I already said that I believe that my own strategy does not do any of that, and so my sales on the way up and my buying on the way down are largely intended just to provide insurance and there seems to be some empowerment with the ongoing employment of such a system that largely attempts to not get attached to short-term price moves.... even though it is not completely detached since it does involve buying on the way down and selling on the way up, but I don't really consider that to be trading.. merely a form of price/volatility insurance...especially since both of us likely realize that one of the most inevitable things in bitcoin is its volatility.. both historically and also in the present and in the years to come.. at least 20 years or more of outrageous price volatility expected as being more or less inevitable.

That surely can be one of the strange parts of this whole project, including that it is a body weight exercise, so no extra gear or equipment is required.. so there could be some embarrassing moments in terms of trying to fit them in, as you mentioned... also sometimes with exertion there are grunts and even for me,  I frequently will feel much better to exert myself if I have not just eaten.. so if a person is driving to a restaurant, he cannot do pushups in the car, and so when he arrives, he might feel that he has to do the push-ups before he eats, or otherwise he might not feel that he is able to do them after he eats.. so what should he do?  Perhaps pump out a quick 20 or 30 pushups in order to try to stay on schedule, right?



Yep.. it is a pretty high level to be able to do 50 at once... even though I am pretty sure in my youth I would have been able to do it... right now I am capped out at 40.. and even that is a struggle.  I am frequently doing 30-35, and every once in a while 40.. but I am getting the sense that I might soon be able to cross over into 45. but it is still quite difficult for me... so I don't want to push it more than I already am.

Of course, it is up to you how to treat these matters, and each of us has to take responsibility for his own decisions including being ready, willing and able to accept that the price might go up without coming back down.. sure there are always going to be corrections and sure if the various ETF providers are pushing the BTC price up, they are likely stimulating more HODLers to agree to release some coins, but it may well not be enough.. so we could end up gravitating up to the $120k to $180k range and then just staying there in the later part of 2024.. . and that is just one scenario.. that may or may not happen, so whatever you do should attempt to be o.k. with a variety of possible scenarios..


..so yeah.. how to apportion yourself for that possibility?  Not easy, but still choices have to be made based on individual particulars without causing yourself to overdo it at the same time. 


Fuck shitcoins.  Who cares?


If you are new to bitcoin or you are a low coiner, you probably don't have a choice except to buy now, otherwise you are not prepared for up (that may or may not happen).


Historically when it passes through the previous ATH it tends to keep going up... but hey, you can read it however you like.  I doubt that there is any reason to worry about topping until some where in the $120k to $180k range, and most likely the upper end of the range - even though corrections can surely happen at any time, even when there is ongoing, persistent and consistent UPPity price pressures, like we are currently experiencing with the spot BTC ETFs and other related ongoing buying pressures.


You sound like you are worried about the top.

If we go by your forum registration date, you have been in bitcoin at least 6 months longer than me, so you should have already gotten used to these kinds of matters, and I have my doubts about needing to worry about tops, yet or profits..

But if you have been in for a while you can take profits whenever you like, so you should already be beyond your accumulation stage.. at least in theory.. this thread is about accumulation. rather than worrying about whether or not to take profits.


If you are new to bitcoin, it would not be smart to wait.  It ONLY makes sense to wait, especially in times like these, if you have already accumulated a decent amount of BTC.


It is hard to give anyone advice, and they have to be responsible for their own actions (or inactions).

So the best thing is to get the fuck started and the ONLY way to prepare for UP is to have some bitcoin, and if he is worried that the price is going to go down, then he needs to be prepared for either, and you cannot really tell him how much to invest or if he will be profitable, but if he is coming to bitcoin, he should plan 4-10 years or longer if he wants to invest, but if he wants to gamble, then that is on him.  You can tell him "if you want to gamble that is on you.  I don't gamble with my bitcoin."

If he is gambling then he has to figure that shit out for himself, and you should not take any responsibility, except maybe tell him to consider long term strategies rather than short-term strategies and adjusting his position size in order to account for long term, and if he wants to do other things, that is his choice.  You are not taking responsibility for his actions whether he follows your suggestion or not, he's gotta figure some of what he is going to do out for himself, and make his own balances, prioriities and risk choices. .including accounting for his 9 factors.

Probably way too many newbies get preoccupied with their entry price, which causes them to wait, and you cannot prepare for UP by waiting, so even if the price might correct, it also might not, so there is no ability at all to count on prices going down or even staying flat... even if they might end up doing so, they also might not.

So the ONLY way to prepare for up is to buy BTC.

Another thing is that if someone is brand new to investing, it could take them 10 years or longer to just build up a decent position that is actually meaningful.

Don't get me wrong, any investment is meaningful, but investments likely have little to no power in their first few years while they are building, and the ONLY folks who can establish meaningful investments into bitcoin in the beginning are those who are transferring decent amounts of value into it right from the start, but they no longer are going to be fitting the profile of any kind of typical normie newbie investor.

So, normie newbies likely could be nearly completely blind to price for at least 4 years and just invest at any price, and then perhaps reassess at that time, but if they are merely investing 10% or so of their salary into bitcoin, they are still not going to have very much invested, even after 4 years.. think about 10% per year would ONLY result in 40% of their salary, and sure the underlying could end up appreciating a lot during that time, but that still may not result in life-changing amounts of value.

I frequently mention a suggestion of front loading and even lump sum investing, and surely not everyone has those kinds of options available, but they likely would be good with bitcoin, and no one should be lump summing or front loading with 100% of their available cash.  If they are able to front-load/lump sum, they still should be setting aside funds for buying on the dip and DCAing.. and presumably DCAing could come from any disposable income that they might have for 6 months or longer or however might be their intial planning stage for their entrance into bitcoin.

But yeah probably a vast majority of normie newbies don't hardly have shit available to lump sum or to front load, so they will just be faced with DCAing.. and maybe trying to organize their finances so that they can attempt to be as aggressive as they can with their DCA amounts.  It still takes a while, even if someone is ready, willing and able to be aggressive, and tops like this should not discourage them from getting started...


You sound distracted if you are using dumb-ass ideas of $2.3 trillion... because no one should give any fucks about shitcoins.

The last time around bitcoin reached around a $1.2 trillion market cap..,. so let's try to focus on bitcoin when we are considering relevant numbers.  Yeah there are shitcoins involved sucking off bitcoin's tit and hanging around as affinity scams and sure there could be some value in some of that crap, but it muddies our thinking and our numbers when we fail/refuse to focus on ourselves on the important asset - namely king daddy bitcoin.


That is way too optimistic to be considering $1 per sat or 1sat per $1, and bitcoin is not even needed to come close to those numbers in order to be able to prosper stupendously by getting involved in it.. and yeah, people can ONLY be as aggressive as they are able to be without overdoing it, and maybe trying to be too strategic about trying to figure out the price is going to lead to either waiting around or getting distracted into trading and/or shitcoins.

In the last 6 months or so, I had revived my fuck you status chart in more conservative ways, and I probably ended up overdoing it, so I will probably have to revive it in order to be a little more bullish, but still even with the projections of my fuck you status chart beyond 2074, we are likely not reaching $1 per sat until around the turn of the century (at least in terms of the 200-WMA, which I believe is the better way to valuate bitcoin in terms of bottoms rather than in terms of tops).   I had been considering if I should post an update to that chart prior to the end of May 2024, since it appears that we are on track for at least a 25% rise in the 200-WMA for the 6 month period (which is likely more than $36k) rather than the 16% that I had projected.

But even if we look at the 200-WMA and we project out 4-10 years, then 4 years puts the 200-WMA at around $114k and 10 years puts it at $389.5k.  That is from my updated chart rather the the above-linked current one that is posted.

So part of the point is that any newbies should be able to invest into bitcoin regularly and consistently and still likely be doing fine, even though there are likely advantages to front-laoding the investment, but not many newbie normies are able to do that, so they have to just do what they can without overdoing it and losing their shirts because they devolved into gambling/trading rather than investing.


You are correct.. We are likely in the early stages of exponential, and even though BTC's market growth (and price) already looks exponential when we look at the historical charts, there is no reason to conclude that such exponential growth is not going to continue, especially since the evidence (logic and facts) still seems to strongly support that bitcoin is the soundest and most pristine asset known to man... but still not too many people realize such.. .even though more and more people, institutions and governments are coming to realize such.


Well, that's too bad.

You likely are not realizing the power of this bad boy, and you have to have persistence and even through all of my 10 years investing in bitcoin, whenever I sell BTC, I am always presuming that I might not be able to buy it back.. so in that regard, from my point of view, sales are always relatively conservative, and without any expectation of being able to buy back.

One of the problems of newbies and even experienced bitcoiners (traders and gamblers) is that there is too much presumption of abilities to buy back at cheaper prices and also they are trying to use sales of BTC as a way to accumulate more BTC, and that's not how it is done.  The ONLY time any true bitcoiner should be selling his/her bitcoin is when s/he knows that s/he has enough or that s/he has more than enough.  Otherwise, no selling of BTC should take place, until reaching that status of sufficient accumulation or better yet over accumulation... easier said than done, but it takes discipline and a long time to build up a bitcoin portfolio and none of us should be taking for granted how many sats that we have accumulated or that we can buy them back at the same price or even cheaper than the current price.


Hopefully you will learn a lesson to just keep buying and stop fucking around with trading and trying to be smarter than the market.

Another thing is that our move from $25k (August/September/October) to current prices of $65k-ish has been pretty damned brutal for either the bitcoin non-believers and/or those who sold too many coin too soon.  There have only been a couple of corrections greater than 12%, and even the corrections of 8% to 12% were not very many.

And maybe we can say a similar thing from the low of $15,479 in November 2022.  There have not been a lot of large correction since November 2022, either... so lots of good buying opportunities that were not really realized until later.. and once we start hitting all time highs again like yesterday and probably like the weeks and months to come, even sometimes we might start to consider bitcoin's whole history as having had been great buying opportunities, and many times we get too fucking caught up on short-term price moves or anticipations of what might happen, without realizing that bitcoin's whole history has been buying opportunities, and it is only going to continue to get more and more difficult to get cheap coins, even though bitcoin is also volatile and going to continue to be volatile..


We already did see an ATH.. yesterday, and yeah it is looking more and more likely that we are going to see $100k before the halvening and maybe even land somewhere in the range of $120k and $180k prior to the end of 2024.


I can't disagree with you on these points.

In follow-up to my earlier post. I don't claim to be any kind of gold follower, but here is a better chart that compares bitcoin and gold with the grey line showing the grams of gold per bitcoin (currently at 863.24), and the yellow line show the ounces of gold per bitcoin (currently at 30.45).

https://charts.bitbo.io/btc-gold/

I see that you have been registered on the forum for more than 3 years Faisal2202, which may well mean that you have enough BTC.

But if you don't have enough coins, then what?  You have to buy at some point.  When are you going to buy?  Did you buy today?  If not, then when are you going to buy.

On the other hand, if you have enough coin, then congratulations. Do you have any plans in regards to managing your coins going forward  and/or various selling points that might relate to either price and/or time?

We should not be presuming anyone else to be a fool in regards to their situation merely based on when they bought (including if they might have had been buying BTC in the last week) and/or if they are just getting started in BTC. We need more information before we would reasonably be able to know if they might have been approaching their bitcoin accumulation in a foolish way..


Well if you have an investment time horizon that is 4-10 years or longer, it would be difficult to assess that you are starting too late or that you are foolish for getting started. 

In the last more than 10 years that I have been involved in bitcoin (and paying some attention), I know a lot of folks over the years who waited and did not do anything in regards to buying bitcoin and we have had a lot of all time highs over the last 10 years... and sometimes it takes a while to reach another ATH after an ATH has been reached, but other times when we have not touched the all time high for a couple of years or more, then it is likely that we will continue to have more ATHs for months to come.. Of course, nothing is guaranteed, but surely anyone buying bitcoin needs to be considering his investment timeline as an important factor, and then whether he is going to lump sum buy, DCA and/or buy on dips, and it can take several years to establish a position, no matter what the BTC accumulation approach.

In regards to before $100k, I doubt anyone complains about too many copters.. it is just potentially a lot of work for you..

In regards to after $100k, personally, I would prefer to not have to go all the way to $10k spans.. Maybe we could compromise on $5k spans after $100k? 

As a comparison point, we are likely closer to December 2020 than we are to October 2021... although we are still at pre-halvening.. even though likely the impact of the halvening is dwarfed as compared to the volume of BTC that the various new spot ETFs are sucking up.

Had you noticed that spot BTC ETFs had been approved and they have been sucking up BTC like a mo fo?



Oh my....     Poor widdo tingilie .. hasn't bought back yet.  Gonna have to pour one out for you soon.


Hardly could be parabolic when there is hardly any supply left on exchanges..

But hey, you can look at whatever data you prefer.


Gosh what a great compromiser you are.  Thanks for that.  You are probably going to be lucky to get anything in the $40s.. and maybe this wee widdo dippening to $59,772 might have been all yee gonna be able to get..

again..

poor widdo tingilie.... 


Yeah but it is probably not going to happen..

Yeah, we have a bit of a correction today, but we are most likely going to through no man's land, and yeah, maybe we won't make it all the way through without a correction, but I am thinking that you have better chances for a correction once we start getting close to $90k-ish, give or take $4k.


ETF volume is hardly newbie FOMO.. The ETFs are barely getting started and many of them are not even open to RIAs yet (that's registered investment advisors). 


ETFs are still generally sticky.

Sure they can trade them, but they are more likely parking their money into those products for several years, and they may even get automatically reallocated from time to time, so they are not completely static, but they are most likely as much the "in and out" vehicles that you are making them out to be.


We already did.  Don't you remember the correction from $49k to $38.5k?  That is the best you are going to get. 

Sorry for your loss.




There are always newbies bailing ship, but they are not enough to make a difference.

Have you heard of no man's land, aka bat country? aka hot butter zone .... well the hot butter zone did not work out so well.. but still..


Sure, there might be some loss of miners.. but even that is not a given.  You seem to be assuming quite a bit, but hey?  who knows?  maybe you will be correct and you will be able to buy back your coins in the $30ks as you suggest, or maybe you will get smarter and buy back before then when you realize that it ain't not gonna happen. 


This time is different.

Sure there will be corrections, but not the kind and quality and quantity that you are talking about.


Sure.  Flash crashes no problem.  May or may not happen again, as you suggest, so sad for uie pooie... if you are preparing for down without sufficiently/adequately preparing for up.

I still have buy orders down to $20k, but I don't expect any orders to be filled lower than $45k, and even with that I have my doubts that there is any need to go back into the $50ks.. who knows..   The BTC price area in question seems to be quite a bit higher than the area that you are pondering (and seeming to hope about).


Probably we will end up gravitating into the $120k to $180k arena in order to need to reassess from there in terms of the quantity of the demand and whether in that price range if some peeps are going to make their coins available for sale.


Of course new issuance of coins makes a difference, but we have supply squeezes currently that go way beyond the effects of the halvening.. if you had not noticed that.


$100k before the halvening is looking more likely, and then the $120k to $180k range is likely to be a part of our 2024 BTC experiences. Sorry to break the news.


It is doubtful we will get back to $48k.. even though sure it is possible, but lower $50ks is probably best you can hope for..... absent some kind of short-term downward spike, but I have my doubts about that, too.


I doubt those early ETF guys are as weak-handed as you are making them out to be, even though they may well be reapportioning their BTC from time to time..


Seems like a long-shot theory you are espousing... but hey it is a free country world  thread.. do/feel as you like.


Sounds like a long shot theory and you are talking your book.. .

sucks to be uie pooie.. sold at $48k or was it $46k?


Ok.. $48k then.  You might as well buy back....

Oh you wouldn't want to do that.

You would rather stick with your principles.


and nonsense pie-in-the-sky wishful-thinking theories.


It is good that you did not blow your whole wadd on this.

But you still sound a wee bit desperate (rather than objective) in regards to the whole matter.


Stop trying to suck us into your stupidity.  Yeah you would have had been smart if you would have bought back around $38.5k, but you were too stubborn, and you think that what you are saying is so obvious that guys here should be selling.. .. that is quite lame.


I doubt that guys waiting for up and buying on the way down (or on dips or even DCA buying) are even close to as degenerate as someone waiting/hoping for down when we just crossed over into ATHs for the first time in 2 years and 4 months.. 30 months.

There are ways to play these matters in order to be prepared for either direction, and not ONLY are you seeming to be overly prepared for down, you are likely to have the odds quite greatly against you... so that's too bad we have not heard from you for the past month or so, when you probably should have been buying back in, while we were still in the $40ks even if we did not hit your lower $30k BTC price expectations.

Fuck Coinbase.


You must be new here.


OgNasty cannot help his lil selfie. to exaggerate a wee bit

We are devolving into off-topicness when we get into diversification topics, especially if we are trying to argue in favor of diversification and then sliding into talking about which shitcoins happen to be less shitty.  

Since we are in a bitcoin thread, then if you are arguing against diversification you are more likely to be on topic than if you are trying to argue in favor of diversification.

Fuck diversification and fuck shitcoins.. take that bullshit to some other thread if you want to talk about it and to justify why you believe such at thing to be justifiable for anyone... and seems even worse for newbies.. and perhaps someone more experienced and with a larger portfolio might justify diversification or getting involved in shitcoins, but they still would probably best to limit their involvement with that nonsense to no more than 10% of the size of their bitcoin holdings and that 10% limitation might even be too much of an allowance.

Oh my..  You might be more lost than I had previously assessed.

In udder wurds:

HELP!!!!!!!!!!



You deserve it.

Fuck shitcoins.


Key word:  "Supposedly"


Fuck shitcoins.

You deserve it, and maybe even more for causing us (perhaps royal?) to suffer in these here parts.


Oh gawd...  

Never thought that I would feel inclined to ppppppuuuukkkeee from a cherry on top.

I used to like cherries.

 

Having choppers every $1k upward movement may start to feel a wee bit nutso.. and at some point the increment is going to need to expand.


I have my doubts that any Ethereum Spot ETF is going to get approved this year.. but who knows?  Never say never.


Well, your forum registration date is a year and a half, so there could be some possibilities that you could have come into bitcoin swinging and even front loaded your investment - but yeah, even with that, it would likely still be difficult to catch up to the earlier investors - which might be part of the legitimacy of the statement that "time in the market" is better than "timing the market."

So, you can choose your level of aggressiveness, and maybe it won't take 20 years for you to start to feel like an OG.  Many of us had started to feel somewhat like an OG after making it through 1 whole bitcoin cycle - and the more that you focus on BTC and don't get distracted by bullshit, then likely the better progress that you would be able to make within your own parameters.

Another thing is that you are likely your own best competitor in terms of figuring out ways to compete against yourself in terms of figuring out ways to help to make your own situation better without overly damaging yourself along the way.


I could think of worse things to do.

By the way, with current BTC price action, we might get knocked back down into don't wake me up zone.  Not that I am predicting it.. but you can never really know about these kinds of surprise packages, somewhat illiquid exchanges and also desires to try to shake as many newbies from their corn as possible.. since it tends to be the newbies that don't recognize the value of the thingie that they hold.

Go figure.

That happens too.  I am not going to deny.


Yes and yes.


You are too smart for your own good.  

 


Many times it is not good to rethink too much, especially if you spent a decent amount of time establishing your earlier (or current) plan in the first place.  

Maybe tweak your plan a bit, but don't go overboard in your rethinking and then tweaking it too much in the opposite direction, unless you have compelling reasons for coming to your new thinking (such as realizing that you were too much of a "whimp" in the earlier plan.. hahahahahaha.. ... I have a forum member to whom I could refer you.).

I don't know why guys here keep repeating non-sense and factually inaccurate information.

The previous ATH from 2021 was $69k (and yeah there may have been some variance from exchange to exchange, but many of the forum regulars use Bitstamp as the standard, and that $69k high was from Bitstamp), and so about 3 hours ago, the BTC price breached the 2021 ATH, and went up to $69,210.. and then corrected after that.  So our new ATH on Bitstamp is $69,210.

Here is a screenshot from about 3.5 hours ago.




Ahead of who?  Of course, any of us who have been in bitcoin for a while have been accumulating, so we are ahead of the current entrants, but we still need to know our comparison point and/or why we would be comparing ourselves to anyone other than ourselves.  Sure we might have some real world rivals, but I would think that the main comparison point would be to compare alternative versions of yourself in order to try to make a situation that ends up being best for you (if not best, at least reasonably trying to improve your own situation).


Ok.   If you are saying to buy the dip, that may or may not be necessary if someone has been buying all along.. or maybe someone DCA's weekly and so there could be a question when the DCA might come due.. which day of the week or if there might be some other time period that someone might use if they were DCA'ing.



This part sounds correct   -in regards to maybe having a plan and continuing to accumulate BTC to have more options, but still people can be at differing stages of their BTC accumulation journey.


I probably agree with this part too, since it is likely that more people will learn about bitcoin and get involved in bitcoin because they know other people who are involved in bitcoin.  So in that sense, sharing information about is caring and/or potentially helpful to open them up to bitcoin if they had not previously gotten involved in bitcoin.

What if they sell everything within the context of more than a 50% fluke correction and they hit their sale near the bottom and then they buy back 1/10th of what they sold? 

So yeah, maybe there are ways to attempt to learn the value of incrementalism, but also not over doing it?

Going "all in" is usually not a good idea at any time, even if you have high chances of being correct and/or you end up being correct.


You are making the same mistake as OP with your seemingly presentation of an assumption that all ATHs are equal.  Would you at least concede that in bitcoinlandia, there is a difference between an ATH that is from 2-3 years earlier versus an ATH that might be being set anew over and over and over?

There are also likely differences in ATHs that are mere percentages higher than the ATH from the previous cycle, versus ATHs that might be3x versus 5x, versus 10x or versus 20x higher than the ATH from the previous cycle.  They probably should not be treated equally, but they could still be buying opportunities, especially for nocoiners or low coiners.


Maybe they ONLY just heard about BTC and/or ONLY just realized that BTC is asset that has a lot of upside potential.  If they are a no coiner, shouldn't they get started no matter what?  Or do you consider waiting to be a good investment strategy for no coiners?  Actually low coiners could also be in a similar situation in which they had under invested in dee cornz, and then they come to realize the folly of their previous whimpiness, and so they may well be faced with a situation in which they have to decide what to do right now. 

They are not able to turn back the clock, so maybe amongst the best of choices would be to increase their investment right now rather than employing a waiting strategy and/or continuing to be whimpy.

We know that overly whimpiness can be a problem, just like overly aggressiveness can also be a problem that causes people to get into pickle situations because they have failed/refused to adequately prepare for BTC price movements in either direction, including preparing themselves for possible extremes (short-term or long-term extremes) in either price direction.


You are assuming a lot.  Maybe you and OP are on the same page?

One of the best things for no coiners, even at the ATH like this, is to figure out their own finances, and divide it up into 3 categories that involve lump sum, DCA and buying on dips, and then figure out how much they are going to put into each.. maybe consider a 6 month plan to start and then reassess after 5 months regarding whether to continue with their previous plan or to employ some kind of modified and/or different plan.  So a newbie no coiner may well come to the conclusion to invest right away, even if the BTC price is at a prior ATH.

Let's say that a newbie no coiner has $6k in cash that he is able to invest into bitcoin, and the knows that he has $3k discretionary/disposable income coming in in the next 6 months that he would be able to DCA, he could divide his current $6k in half.  Half for buying on dip and half for lump sum, or he could skew his current $6k more towards lump sum, especially since he is already a no coiner and he wants to prepare for up.  There is no way to prepare for up if he does not buy some.  Waiting is not a sound strategy since it is only preparing for down, and we have no fucking clue which way the BTC price is going to go merely based on it reaching an ATH from more than 2 years ago.



Fair enough.  But what if they have $6k in cash that they are able to invest and $3k income in the next 6 months?  You want them to DCA all of that?  From your point of view, over what period of time should they DCA the $6k that is already available right now?


You said everything correctly, except your last statement is retarded.  You sound like a shitcoiner. 

Why dilute your investment into shitcoins if you have already identified bitcoin as either a good investment or perhaps amongst the best of investments currently known to man?  then why diversify?  just for the sake of it?  because the word "diversify" sounds good?  because you heard other smart people say it?  hahahahaha 

Don't mean to pick on you, but that idea of diversification for the mere sake of diversifying is not very smart, especially if you have any clue about what bitcoin is.

It seems a bit problematic if you are talking about what traders can do and not incorporating what you are doing and/or planning to do - not that you have to give away any personal details, but it is starting to seem as if you are talking about theory rather than actual practice, when you talk about "the perspective of a trader" and "their skills"

Which leads me to a second point that bothers me about the idea of pumping and/or pushing the idea of trading for normies, as if all the normies should be considering trading techniques.. which surely is not true.. so in that case, fuck trading.

Normies are going to be way the fuck better off to focus on building up their BTC stash first, and if they build up their BTC stash to such a level that it is more than a year of their salary/expenses, then maybe at that point they will be in a position to trade.

Of course, there are some folks who don't have any income producing opportunities, so they may be dependent upon trading to earn an income, but those guys are likely exceptions rather than rules, so we should not be presenting the situations of the exceptions as if it were the base case - especially with an asset like bitcoin.  The odds are pretty good that you are really going to get fucked if you are trying to trade rather than just focusing on accumulating bitcoin through various buying techniques (that are also known as investing), and then when you get to a decently sized stash (maybe a year's worth of income/expenses) invested into BTC, then maybe at that point you can reassess if you want to start to use a portion of your stash for trading purposes, which also might not be an obvious answer regarding whether it would be any benefit to begin to trade rather than just accumulate bitcoin through various buying strategies..

There are situations in which a person might start to feel that he has accumulated enough or more than enough BTC, and then he would have more liberty to sell some BTC in strategic ways and possibly buy back.. but I would still suggest those stages are reached after a lot accumulation rather than a default starting position in regards how to approach your BTC accumulation journey.



I think that I see what you are saying, but you seem to be talking about and referring to specialists rather than normal people.  Sure some normal people might want to get into position of being more expert traders, but most people probably would prefer to continue to do their regular jobs and activities without having to learn specialized trading techniques.


Yes people short term trade.  It is not a good idea for an overwhelming majority of people, maybe more than 80% should not be fucking around with trying to trade, unless they limit their trading portion of their portfolio to maybe less than 10% of the size of their bitcoin holdings, and don't allow for portfolio creep.. when they lose that 10% then they have to wait for new money to come in rather than dipping into the BTC portion of their stash in order to refuel their likely losses.


Well it seems that we mostly agree on this point, even though you seem to be promoting the idea and/or practice of trading as if it were a good idea for normies, and most likely I am disagreeing mostly with your prior lack of highlighting that trading is a specialty that takes a pretty fucking long time to learn and anyone getting into trading likely should not be fucking around with large portions of their BTC stash, and so other words, any normies who want to get into trading likely need to limit their stash while they are learning and practicing and building up their skills.. and of course, people are free to do whatever they want in terms of assessing their skills and their abilities to trade, but it also seems that a lot of folks get false senses of their own grandeur and tend to devolve into gambling while proclaiming that they are investing, when they are not.


We can agree to disagree, and when I am talking about the 4 years or longer time line to be an investor, I am specifically talking about bitcoin.


It probably also depends on the asset.


Of course we don't know with any level of certainty, but I am not going to just make up shit without assessing the asset, and with bitcoin we have had 4 year cycles and there is little to no evidence that they are stopping, even though they could end up stopping and/or lessening or changing in their patterns, that does not mean that we are better off to try to trade or to call ourselves investors who like to fuck around trying to figure out short-term waves in order to benefit from such short term price moves...

Don't get me wrong, there is no problem to attempt to prognosticate variations in the historical patterns in order to apply that to the future or even attempting to prepare oneself for variation in past patterns.. because in essence any investor should attempt to be prepared for variations in past patterns and even short term price movements that go beyond expectations, and so any investor should be attempting to already know in advance how he is going to deal with such variations, whether it is continuing to buy, buying on dips, lump sum investing or other strategies, and surely the more BTC that the person has, then they might be in a position to also incorporate selling into their strategy to play waves.. but I am not going to presume that anyone can trade their way up to having enough bitcoin. they more likely need to get to that position of having enough (or more than enough) bitcoin prior to fucking around with selling any of it...

You don't sell something like bitcoin in order to accumulate more, but you can start to sell bitcoin once you have accumulated enough and/or more than enough. .which tends to take a quite a bit of time to get to such point. .. accumulating enough and/or more than enough bitcoin is not a newbie status.. and in that regard, it is usually going to take a whole cycle to get to such status of sufficient and/or more than sufficient BTC accumulation. ...  

By the way, with your own forum registration date, maybe there can be a presumption that you have ONLY been in bitcoin for a year and a half.. so if that might be the case, then I would be having doubts that you would have had a sufficient amount of time to accumulate enough BTC or more than enough BTC in order to be fucking around with selling.. but hey you can correct me, if you have an earlier entry date or if you were able to sufficiently/adequately front-load your BTC investment in order to be in a sufficiently comfortable position to be fucking around with trying to trade the most pristine asset known to mankind, to date.


It does not matter.  Error on the side of accumulation and/or over accumulation, and then once you get to that point, then you will have more options, otherwise don't be fucking around trying to guess short-term price moves or even possible BIG waves in bitcoin.. .and I am not even suggesting to completely ignore the likely patterns including times in which we might be in blow off tops, yet even if any of us might be considering that we might be entering a blow off top periods, if we have not yet accumulated enough BTC that might not mean to sell our BTC, but of course, if we are in a position that it seems plausible to sell some of our BTC an there seems to be a blow off top, then those are our choices to consider whether to sell and how much to sell.. and whether we might or might not be wrong and if we might be selling too much of our BTC in case we might not be correct.  Yes, some of these choices depend partly upon how much BTC you might have accumulated in light of your other personal circumstances (you can see my list of 9 factors to see to what I am referring) that only you can assess. (and you might be wrong on some of them, especially if you are putting too much weight into predicting BTC prices rather than the other 8 factors).


That sounds like swing trading and not investing, but call it whatever you like.


Fuck crypto.

We are talking about bitcoin here in this thread.


This part is redundant..  seems that I already stated my position.  You can do what you like and to muddy categories (and express yourself in muddied and garbled ways) in terms of what you call people and how you treat bitcoin (and/or crypto), and I am not going to agree with the framing, even though it is not such a big deal to get into arguments about semantics, but more important to understand what you are actually doing and saying rather than getting caught up on what word(s) is (are) being used.

Maybe one further point would be that if you are valuing your wealth in short term dollars, and you might not recognize and/or appreciate the value of bitcoin as a long term investment, even though you give lip service to your recognizing and appreciating such, this could be part of the explanation why you come to conclusions that making short term dollar profits from bitcoin could still cause bitcoin to fall within the category of investment - because you are thinking in terms of scalping dollars from short-term Upward BTC price moves... so then you lock in your dollar profits, and you consider that you had invested into bitcoin and you had profited from such investment.

I am not going to give the benefit of the doubt to such arguments that value bitcoin in terms of short-term price moves, even though technically it may well not be incorrect, and part of the reason for my ongoing reluctance and stubborness in that direction has to do with what I consider to be my own appreciation of the truly grand paradigm-shifting power of bitcoin that should bring wonder and awe to anyone who truly understands what bitcoin is and what it brings to the world, besides its mere number go up technology. 

Sure, bitcoin has number go up technology, but it is a lot more than merely number go up technology since it brings options and power to those who hold it for the long term, even if the cost per BTC of some folks might be higher than others, in the end, there is a lot of power that comes from how many BTC you hold and it is likely going to continue to come to those who hold a lot of BTC... and maybe in some sense I am contradicting myself, since I already stated that there could be situations in which guys conclude that they have enough or more than enough BTC - even though at the same time there is a lot of power and prestige from holding a lot of BTC. 

In my own recognition and appreciation that we can hold enough or more than enough BTC, I am trying to also recognize and appreciate that  we are mortal and we also have consumption needs, including living in a world that has a lot of various other inferior assets and currencies that might also be included in the types of assets that we hold for the purpose of diversification and for the purpose of our own transactions and consumption.. and/or maybe our ways of also earning more value through the various other inferior assets/currencies.

Ultimately, you can do whatever you like, but I think to stay in the spirit of the challenge there should be a need to try to emphasize pushups or the closest substitutes to pushups in the event that you are not able to do pushups.

Of course push-ups are a body weight exercise that we are able to modify based on angle and/or even style of our pushups - so we can take it everywhere - and maybe there is a bit of gruelingness to it to based on being able to do it anywhere, but maybe if we are in awkward situations, it might seem strange to do pushups in the parking lot or at the airport.. hahahahaaha

---

Regarding some of the earlier comments of how many pushups to do in a stretch, I read somewhere that very fit folks, such as in the military, sometimes will get plateaued at a certain number of pushups that they are able to do in one stretch - which may be around 75.

Of course, many of us more normal (and potentially more out of shape peeps) likely are having our current plateaus at lower numbers - even though we also might be a bit of newbies to the push-ups-everyday practices (this is my 30th day), so it could be the case that some of our plateaus may well be temporary and we have to let them play out a bit longer to see if we might get over them. 

Another thing that I read is that sometimes guys can start to get seemingly chronic pains (or negative effects) from how many push-ups they are doing, and that seemed to apply to even higher level of push-ups than we are doing (like 200 or higher per day for extended periods), so if it takes a while to get to $100k, we might be doing these push-ups for a while.. though I am getting the sense that it $100k is more and more likely to be reached before the halvening or soon there after. We are just experiencing too many new entrants into BTC in recent times with the spot BTC ETFs, and my thinking is that it is going to be really difficult to hold BTC prices below even $120k.. so probably a new balance point will be between $120k and $180k while so many of these new entrants are coming into BTC - and then we will have to reassess again at that point if some of the liquidity issues might subside or not.. but then we are also going to have the halvening of the new supply effect which also has its own real world UPpity pressures on the BTC price which could cause the new normal for this cycle to end up in the $240k to $360k range, and that is not even accounting for the various artificial price spikes that also accompany the cycles.

Anyhow.. part of the point that I was wanting to make is that if there might be some chronic pains from too many pushups, then the solution might be to have either no push-up days (which seems like it would be out of the spirit of this particular challenge), or maybe some days weaved in there that are lighter push-up days.. like maybe alternating 3 full days and 1 half day. .or something variation of that.. 

We can hardly take you seriously since this is your only forum post and you did not even follow-up in the thread.

And, maybe you don't even know what is bitcoin or what would be the context for anyone currently buying bitcoin.  You surely have not provided much if any context for your question.

There are some kinds of people who are foolish no matter what they do, because they make rash decisions, yet we should not presume someone to be foolish now merely if he is just getting started in bitcoin.

In regards to bitcoin prices, the only way to prepare for BTC prices to go up is to buy some bitcoin, and if are interested in bitcoin and you don't buy any bitcoin, then you are ONLY preparing for down, so if the prices do not go down, then you are not prepared for what ends up happening.

Surely we could look at previous periods in which BTC prices had reached an all time high and then there was an extended period of time of correction and then the BTC price revisited the previous ATH, and frequently in those cases the BTC price moved through the previous ATH and continued to go up.  Of course, past BTC price performance does not guarantee future results, but anyone who might want to prepare for the BTC price to go up, might want to get some bitcoin in case the price does not come back down.

There are also ways to prepare for up and down at the same time, which would be to buy some BTC right now, and then have some money in reserves in case the BTC price drops from here, which could be supplementing the buy through DCA and/or buying on dips.. and in that kind of case the BTC buyer would be prepared for both up and/or down, which tends to be a better practice.  Prepare for either price direction rather than just preparing for only one price direction.

By the way maybe we could go back to early 2013.  The previous ATH had been $32, and in early 2013, the BTC price passed through $32 and then went up to $263, and then corrected back down to around $70 in mid 2013 but then resumed past the $263 ATH in late 2013 to reach $1,163 before correcting back down to $158 but then largely settling in the mid $200s in late 2014 and through much of $215... so then in early 2017, the BTC price went back through the $1,163 ATH and went to $19,666 in late 2017... and ended up correcting back down to $3,124 in 2018 and had another correction to $3,850 in March 2020, but then when it went back through the $19,666 ATH in late 2020, it went up to $64k in early 2021 and $69k in late 2021, before correcting back down to $15,479 in late 2022  and mostly gravitating back up to our current prices,

and so it seems that we may well be passing through a previous ATH again.. yet of course, there are no guarantees, so each of us has to figure out what we are going to do, and you are in more of a pickle if you either don't have any BTC or if you consider yourself a low coiner... and so if you are in either of those categories, it is probably better to buy rather than waiting around for price dips that may or may not end up happening.


I would suggest that by definition when it comes to bitcoin, a person is probably not investing unless s/he has at least a 4 year time horizon.  If their time horizon is less than 4 years, then more likely s/he is either trading/gambling rather than investing.  So investors in bitcoin should have a 4-10 year or longer time horizon for their investment, otherwise they should probably call what they are doing trading and/or gambling rather than investing..

Also, we had some recent casualties when we had the dip from $49k to $38.5k (21%), and that amount of dip was not enough. 

Some of them (traders and/or lacking in confidence of dee cornz) were waiting for lower $30ks.. .. so yeah, greed is not necessarily good.. but also failure/refusal to adequately prepare for up is not good either.