So what are people's thoughts? Ironically, despite still expecting an inevitable correction (what goes up must come down before going back up again), today's bearish candle I don't find very concerning. For one, it's the first sell candle in weeks, since the move from $40K, so isn't exactly conclusive of "the top's in" mentality. For now, it's an orderly corrective candle, with further potential upside. Just look back at October 2021 with ATH making. Firstly there was a new ATH followed by an immediate strong bearish doji selling candle on the Weekly, that was followed by another 3 weeks of upside to make another slightly higher ATH. So now that the ATH has been pierced, I think it's more likely to be re-tested and broken again, rather than the correcting starting from here. That said...
As a comparison point, we are likely closer to December 2020 than we are to October 2021... although we are still at pre-halvening.. even though likely the impact of the halvening is dwarfed as compared to the volume of BTC that the various new spot ETFs are sucking up.
Had you noticed that spot BTC ETFs had been approved and they have been sucking up BTC like a mo fo?
My thought on re-testing $30K haven't changed much,
Oh my....
Poor widdo tingilie .. hasn't bought back yet. Gonna have to pour one out for you soon.
especially the more parabolic the price has gone.
Hardly could be parabolic when there is hardly any supply left on exchanges..
But hey, you can look at whatever data you prefer.
I'm closer to thinking a low could be around $35K rather than $30K,
Gosh what a great compromiser you are. Thanks for that. You are probably going to be lucky to get anything in the $40s.. and maybe this wee widdo dippening to $59,772 might have been all yee gonna be able to get..
again..
poor widdo tingilie....
as now a BULLISH macro retracement would be around $36K (0.382 fib retracement from low to high), as opposed to the more bearish full retracement back down to $28K. Felt the need to capitalise there, to specify that one price level would be bullish, the other would be borderline bearish, but otherwise neutral. Ie, starting an uptrend again from scratch type level, but also not conclusive of being bearish, even if it'd "feel" very bearish to many.
Yeah but it is probably not going to happen..
Yeah, we have a bit of a correction today, but we are most likely going to through no man's land, and yeah, maybe we won't make it all the way through without a correction, but I am thinking that you have better chances for a correction once we start getting close to $90k-ish, give or take $4k.
Overall, I see the parabolic from from $40K to ~$70K as complete over-leveraged puff and newbie FOMO from ETFs.
ETF volume is hardly newbie FOMO.. The ETFs are barely getting started and many of them are not even open to RIAs yet (that's registered investment advisors).
Of course the ETFs are "good" (look at the price!), but many of these investors have no idea experience of Bitcoin's volatility that isn't one directional.
ETFs are still generally sticky.
Sure they can trade them, but they are more likely parking their money into those products for several years, and they may even get automatically reallocated from time to time, so they are not completely static, but they are most likely as much the "in and out" vehicles that you are making them out to be.
If we are to go below the ETF opening price of $48K,
We already did. Don't you remember the correction from $49k to $38.5k? That is the best you are going to get.
Sorry for your loss.
I think there will be a lot "jumping ship" from more conservative investors, rather than further speculation. Bare in mind these TradFi clowns aren't used to a -30% correction in a matter of days or weeks, and they'd typically see it as extremely bearish, even though $48K level would be the support level for continued bullish momentum. This, fundamentally more than anything, is why I don't trust the current rally above $50K. It's based on hopes and dreamss, not reality imo, and relying on newbies to have strong hands.
There are always newbies bailing ship, but they are not enough to make a difference.
Have you heard of no man's land, aka bat country? aka hot butter zone ....
well the hot butter zone did not work out so well.. but still.. So I am sitll a bit torn over the "considerable correction" theory, as it may just be a re-test of $50K level and stablise from there (again this would be IMMEDIATELY BULLISH not bearish). My other concern is surrounding the halving... ironically. With price so high, so is the average mining cost, around $50K at the moment. At this rate, there will be the inevitable "miner capitulation" (reduction in mining power) with average price immediately spiking to $100K. I think we've generally averted the uber bearish miner selling scenario, because with price so high and rewards about to drop in half, miners are able to sell at a reasonable price to cover costs (especially those who will need to switch off machines in the coming months, until a more favourable mining cost is available, with the reduction of difficulty etc). Naturally the longer-term effects will be bullish, like we've seen every halving, but in reality the immediate effects are never bullish, but more of a stabilising effect for price (at best...)
Sure, there might be some loss of miners.. but even that is not a given. You seem to be assuming quite a bit, but hey? who knows? maybe you will be correct and you will be able to buy back your coins in the $30ks as you suggest, or maybe you will get smarter and buy back before then when you realize that it ain't not gonna happen.
More to the point, every halving there is at least one significant drop of mining power, due to reduced rewards, usually a few instances depending on where price has come from,
This time is different.
Sure there will be corrections, but not the kind and quality and quantity that you are talking about.
which often leads to either decrease in price or otherwise sideways stability, as difficulty drops and the network has to "re-calibrate" the change (see 2020 and 2016).
Sure. Flash crashes no problem. May or may not happen again, as you suggest, so sad for uie pooie... if you are preparing for down without sufficiently/adequately preparing for up.
I still have buy orders down to $20k, but I don't expect any orders to be filled lower than $45k, and even with that I have my doubts that there is any need to go back into the $50ks.. who knows.. The BTC price area in question seems to be quite a bit higher than the area that you are pondering (and seeming to hope about).
So I'm not expecting much different here, unlike a lot of other speculative theories knocking around, from $100K within X amount of days or my estimation of dropping to around $30K;
Probably we will end up gravitating into the $120k to $180k arena in order to need to reassess from there in terms of the quantity of the demand and whether in that price range if some peeps are going to make their coins available for sale.
the halving is never "priced in", as the effects of reduced mining rewards only takes effect once the rewards are actually halved.
Of course new issuance of coins makes a difference, but we have supply squeezes currently that go way beyond the effects of the halvening.. if you had not noticed that.
Not forgetting that it takes some time, usually a few months, for the supply to "dry up", if the demand and supply remains the same. Obviously if the demand remains high, like with the ETFs, the effects of the halving could be more immediate than usual, but only time will tell. For example if we hold $50K until the halving, the effects would likely be immediate bullish based on current demand.
$100k before the halvening is looking more likely, and then the $120k to $180k range is likely to be a part of our 2024 BTC experiences. Sorry to break the news.
Overall, just like $48K was the "treshold" for me to no longer consider the move from $15.5K as a 2019-style dead cat bounce, it will also be the level for me to consider the immediate uptrend to be over if we break below, especially now this is the opening ETF price effectively.
It is doubtful we will get back to $48k.. even though sure it is possible, but lower $50ks is probably best you can hope for..... absent some kind of short-term downward spike, but I have my doubts about that, too.
Probably others would lower to this $44K (Weekly closing highs) or even $40K, but personally I think below $48K it could well be too late to directly change the course of events. It's specifically were TradFi investors will enevitably turn into nervous nellies, if price is approaching their entry points.
I doubt those early ETF guys are as weak-handed as you are making them out to be, even though they may well be reapportioning their BTC from time to time..
Bare in mind most of the investors are no different than Bitcoin speculators, and the first correction each of these speculators experiences is typified by fear, uncertainty, and doubt; thus leads to a lot of panic selling. So I'm certainly not putting my faith into these newbies to be strong hands if price corrects beyond what they feel comfortable with. Obviously any "smart Bitcoin investor" would simply increase position if price dropped further, for example buying $40K if you're average was $50K, etc, but these Bitcoin ETF newbies won't be smart in my opinion, they are still complete newbies to the Bitcoin market, and more importantly prefer to buy strength than weakness. So if you want to put faith in these newbies (that can be translated into price >$50K, then feel free, but I won't be participating in this facade).
Seems like a long-shot theory you are espousing... but hey it is a free
country world thread.. do/feel as you like.
Also, as just a mere reality check of Bitcoin pyschology here, since when did complete noobs get to throw money at Bitcoin near an ATH and get to ride a 50% move to the upside within a couple of months with zero consequences? I don't believe these institutional investors are any smarter than Bitcoiners in my opinon, and if anything, when push comes to shove, they will have much weaker hands. They want Bitcoin because of price appreciation and as a store of value. If that store of value is to the downside, I'm certain they won't be interested until it presents itself as a store of value / price appreciation asset again.
Sounds like a long shot theory and you are talking your book.. .
sucks to be uie pooie.. sold at $48k or was it $46k?
PS - I'm not salty that I sold at $48K either,
Ok.. $48k then. You might as well buy back....
Oh you wouldn't want to do that.
You would rather stick with your principles.
and nonsense pie-in-the-sky wishful-thinking theories.I still hold the majority of Bitcoin, just simply have a decent amount of "dry powder" for a correction (for probably the first time ever).
It is good that you did not blow your whole wadd on this.
But you still sound a wee bit desperate
(rather than objective) in regards to the whole matter.
If I didn't sell $48K to the upside, I'd be selling it to the downside, and looking at price as I type,
Stop trying to suck us into your stupidity. Yeah you would have had been smart if you would have bought back around $38.5k, but you were too stubborn, and you think that what you are saying is so obvious that guys here should be selling.. .. that is quite lame.
I think that downside may already be sooner than we think. Also if not obvious, I'm happy to ride a 250% move over a year during a recovery stage, I don't care about the final 50% parabolic move to the upside, I'll leave that to the degenerative gamblers to take advantage of, or get rekt by.[/i]
I doubt that guys waiting for up and buying on the way down (or on dips or even DCA buying) are even close to as degenerate as someone waiting/hoping for down when we just crossed over into ATHs for the first time in 2 years and 4 months.. 30 months.
There are ways to play these matters in order to be prepared for either direction, and not ONLY are you seeming to be overly prepared for down, you are likely to have the odds quite greatly against you... so that's too bad we have not heard from you for the past month or so, when you probably should have been buying back in, while we were still in the $40ks even if we did not hit your lower $30k BTC price expectations.
Poll
