So what are people's thoughts? Ironically, despite still expecting an inevitable correction (what goes up must come down before going back up again), today's bearish candle I don't find very concerning. For one, it's the first sell candle in weeks, since the move from $40K, so isn't exactly conclusive of "the top's in" mentality. For now, it's an orderly corrective candle, with further potential upside. Just look back at October 2021 with ATH making. Firstly there was a new ATH followed by an immediate strong bearish doji selling candle on the Weekly, that was followed by another 3 weeks of upside to make another slightly higher ATH. So now that the ATH has been pierced, I think it's more likely to be re-tested and broken again, rather than the correcting starting from here. That said...
As a comparison point, we are likely closer to December 2020 than we are to October 2021... although we are still at pre-halvening.. even though likely the impact of the halvening is dwarfed as compared to the volume of BTC that the various new spot ETFs are sucking up.
Had you noticed that spot BTC ETFs had been approved and they have been sucking up BTC like a mo fo?
Yes, noted re: ETFs. Price go up and BTC into ETFs go up.
No shit sherlock. What happens if price goes down though? Nobody knows, because it's never happened with ETFs being available, apart from the initial correction from $48K and ETF outflows became negative, but (I agree) that this is not conclusive of what will occur in the future. We are otherwise closer to March 2020 based on Bitcoin's cycles, which I still believe in. Obviously based on price, we are closer to Octotober 2021. To not acknoledge the subjectivity of these comparisons would be naive (I know I'm certainly not and remaining open minded).
My thought on re-testing $30K haven't changed much,
Oh my....
Poor widdo tingilie .. hasn't bought back yet. Gonna have to pour one out for you soon.
Give it time at least, I wouldn't be bathing in confidence about anything quite yet. There is still a lot to prove here.
especially the more parabolic the price has gone.
Hardly could be parabolic when there is hardly any supply left on exchanges..
But hey, you can look at whatever data you prefer.
It's not what I prefer, parabolic price movement is -
unsurprisingly - based on price movement, it has nothing to do with supply.
I'm surprised you aren't aware of that obvious fact, but never mind.,
I'm closer to thinking a low could be around $35K rather than $30K,
Gosh what a great compromiser you are. Thanks for that. You are probably going to be lucky to get anything in the $40s.. and maybe this wee widdo dippening to $59,772 might have been all yee gonna be able to get..
It sounds like the same nonsense as in 2019, that you'd be lucky to get anything under $10K, when soon after price reached around $6K, back to support - as expected after a parabolic move.
It's possible that for now $60K could be the low before hitting $80K. If that happens, I'd happily raise my low / support level to $40K, because based on time, fib retracements and moving averages, that would be the low support, whether it reaches there or not. It's only really if price reaches $100K and goes beyond, then returning to below $50K becomes a bit less likely, especially if it happens this year.
as now a BULLISH macro retracement would be around $36K (0.382 fib retracement from low to high), as opposed to the more bearish full retracement back down to $28K. Felt the need to capitalise there, to specify that one price level would be bullish, the other would be borderline bearish, but otherwise neutral. Ie, starting an uptrend again from scratch type level, but also not conclusive of being bearish, even if it'd "feel" very bearish to many.
Yeah but it is probably not going to happen..
Sounds convincing. It sounds like every other YouTube saying "it's probably not going to happen", before it does.
Yeah, we have a bit of a correction today, but we are most likely going to through no man's land, and yeah, maybe we won't make it all the way through without a correction, but I am thinking that you have better chances for a correction once we start getting close to $90k-ish, give or take $4k.
You could be right here, it could take until $80K, $90K, even $100K, but in 2024, I don't believe there won't be a correction that won't be on average around 50%. I still believe in the routine.
Overall, I see the parabolic from from $40K to ~$70K as complete over-leveraged puff and newbie FOMO from ETFs.
ETF volume is hardly newbie FOMO.. The ETFs are barely getting started and many of them are not even open to RIAs yet (that's registered investment advisors).
They are barely getting started, but it's not newbie FOMO? Right, ok... not even going to bother with this illogical argument.
Of course the ETFs are "good" (look at the price!), but many of these investors have no idea experience of Bitcoin's volatility that isn't one directional.
ETFs are still generally sticky.
Sure they can trade them, but they are more likely parking their money into those products for several years, and they may even get automatically reallocated from time to time, so they are not completely static, but they are most likely as much the "in and out" vehicles that you are making them out to be.
You stumbled across the key point here, possibly without realising it: "automatic allocation". That works for the upside and well was the de-alloclation to the downside. It's more or less automated based on what's trading to the upside and what's trading to the downside, much less based on emotions or fundamentals in reality. Ideally investments are held for years, sure, but this isn't always the case.
If we are to go below the ETF opening price of $48K,
We already did. Don't you remember the correction from $49k to $38.5k? That is the best you are going to get.
Sorry for your loss.
Oh dear, it's concerning to here a long-time Bitcoiner believing that <$50K is now impossible, when I believe that $100K this year is more than possible. I was hoping there would be more or a balance between "UPonly" and "correction possibly", rather than uber-bullish mentality. I still remember when we used to consider every possible outcome, not be blinded by parabolic moves in the market.
Again, this type of mentality reminds me of 2019 parabolic move, that <$10K was now impossible, cos "Bitcoin is bullish", and remains highly speculative as an outlook to maintain.
I think there will be a lot "jumping ship" from more conservative investors, rather than further speculation. Bare in mind these TradFi clowns aren't used to a -30% correction in a matter of days or weeks, and they'd typically see it as extremely bearish, even though $48K level would be the support level for continued bullish momentum. This, fundamentally more than anything, is why I don't trust the current rally above $50K. It's based on hopes and dreamss, not reality imo, and relying on newbies to have strong hands.
There are always newbies bailing ship, but they are not enough to make a difference.
Right, unless all the newbies bought Bitcoin ETFs in the past two months, or does that not count as newbie investors? We all know who's been buying BTC these past two months, and we can talk about the positives of ETF inflows until the cows come home. But what about the negatives? The newbie short-term holders? Are they exempt from scrutiny because they are mainly institutions? No.
So I am sitll a bit torn over the "considerable correction" theory, as it may just be a re-test of $50K level and stablise from there (again this would be IMMEDIATELY BULLISH not bearish). My other concern is surrounding the halving... ironically. With price so high, so is the average mining cost, around $50K at the moment. At this rate, there will be the inevitable "miner capitulation" (reduction in mining power) with average price immediately spiking to $100K. I think we've generally averted the uber bearish miner selling scenario, because with price so high and rewards about to drop in half, miners are able to sell at a reasonable price to cover costs (especially those who will need to switch off machines in the coming months, until a more favourable mining cost is available, with the reduction of difficulty etc). Naturally the longer-term effects will be bullish, like we've seen every halving, but in reality the immediate effects are never bullish, but more of a stabilising effect for price (at best...)
Sure, there might be some loss of miners.. but even that is not a given. You seem to be assuming quite a bit, but hey? who knows? maybe you will be correct and you will be able to buy back your coins in the $30ks as you suggest, or maybe you will get smarter and buy back before then when you realize that it ain't not gonna happen.
Firstly, you're assuming I'm waiting for $30K or $35K, even $40K. WRONG! I'm waiting for price stability, not really bothered where that price comes from, but if you think that after 14 months of UPONLY that there will be no correction or sideways price action, for a considerable amount of time (like months), then you've gone insane. In 10+ years of Bitcoin, this has ALWAYS been the case. ETFs are not an excuse here.
Even in the "bull market years" of Bitcoin there is price stability that eventually arrives, usually because these UPONLY periods don't last longer than 12 months. This is uncharted territory for sure, but it won't exempt Bitcoin from going through the usually period of correction/sideways price action I don't believe, if anything, the longer it goes on for, the worse it will be. If it did become exempt from usual Bitcoin/market movements, then there will be worse things to come, as that would be official bubble territory that Bitcoin has never experienced before, and all hell could break lose. Fortunately, we're not there yet.
More to the point, every halving there is at least one significant drop of mining power, due to reduced rewards, usually a few instances depending on where price has come from,
This time is different.
I'll add this to my diary of times where I was told that this time it's different, and check back in the future to see if it was actually different, as so far this hasn't been the case. But let's see!
which often leads to either decrease in price or otherwise sideways stability, as difficulty drops and the network has to "re-calibrate" the change (see 2020 and 2016).
Sure. Flash crashes no problem. May or may not happen again, as you suggest, so sad for uie pooie... if you are preparing for down without sufficiently/adequately preparing for up.
Again, you're making unfounded assumptions. I was balancing my portfolio to be prepared for a correction, while also (predominantly) being prepared for continued upside (as has happened). But I forgive you, as despite not bothering to question these things, it's easy to make wrong assumptions about ones Bitcoin allocation. So no sadness here, as I said I'm not bothered about the degen 50%+ on top of that.
the halving is never "priced in", as the effects of reduced mining rewards only takes effect once the rewards are actually halved.
Of course new issuance of coins makes a difference, but we have supply squeezes currently that go way beyond the effects of the halvening.. if you had not noticed that.
I had, I'm just being sensible and not basing 2 months of ETF trading with 15+ years of Bitcoin price history, that'd be ridiculous and insulting to Bitcoin itself. You're insulting Bitcoin here. Is it not fair and realistic to compare ETF inflows/outflows with price decline, not just UPONLY parabolic moves? That seems realistic to me, in order to see the balance of these things, that we've yet to see most importantly.
Of course ETF inflows will increase when price increases, it's correlated for good reason. We don't really know what happens in the inverse stage, and eventually we will find out.
Not forgetting that it takes some time, usually a few months, for the supply to "dry up", if the demand and supply remains the same. Obviously if the demand remains high, like with the ETFs, the effects of the halving could be more immediate than usual, but only time will tell. For example if we hold $50K until the halving, the effects would likely be immediate bullish based on current demand.
$100k before the halvening is looking more likely, and then the $120k to $180k range is likely to be a part of our 2024 BTC experiences. Sorry to break the news.
Oh thanks, I hadn't heard that before. I mean obviously every uber-bull and YouTuber has been spouting >$100K in the next few hours or weeks, similar to late 2021, and it's all over mainstream media, but thanks for breaking the news to me again, I should really have faith in the mainstream media and influencer's positive opinion of Bitcoin. In fact, I should acknowledge more when they are bearish too!
[/sarcasm]Overall, just like $48K was the "treshold" for me to no longer consider the move from $15.5K as a 2019-style dead cat bounce, it will also be the level for me to consider the immediate uptrend to be over if we break below, especially now this is the opening ETF price effectively.
It is doubtful we will get back to $48k.. even though sure it is possible, but lower $50ks is probably best you can hope for..... absent some kind of short-term downward spike, but I have my doubts about that, too.
Thank fuck, I was getting worried then. So $48K is possible after all? In that case, maybe we do go to $100K after all, if everyone hasn't become an UPONLY uber-bull.
Probably others would lower to this $44K (Weekly closing highs) or even $40K, but personally I think below $48K it could well be too late to directly change the course of events. It's specifically were TradFi investors will enevitably turn into nervous nellies, if price is approaching their entry points.
I doubt those early ETF guys are as weak-handed as you are making them out to be, even though they may well be reapportioning their BTC from time to time..
Pure speculation, as has been the theme these past two months. Why don't we wait and find out? Because your theory is completely untested. The only comparison is how strong newbie hands are, and from 10+ years of history, they are weak as fuck. The weakest of them all in fact. Ideally this time it would be different, but all that "automated allocation" malarkey will probably play out in an automated way...
Bare in mind most of the investors are no different than Bitcoin speculators, and the first correction each of these speculators experiences is typified by fear, uncertainty, and doubt; thus leads to a lot of panic selling. So I'm certainly not putting my faith into these newbies to be strong hands if price corrects beyond what they feel comfortable with. Obviously any "smart Bitcoin investor" would simply increase position if price dropped further, for example buying $40K if you're average was $50K, etc, but these Bitcoin ETF newbies won't be smart in my opinion, they are still complete newbies to the Bitcoin market, and more importantly prefer to buy strength than weakness. So if you want to put faith in these newbies (that can be translated into price >$50K, then feel free, but I won't be participating in this facade).
Seems like a long-shot theory you are espousing... but hey it is a free
country world thread.. do/feel as you like.
Long-short theory that newbies aren't weak hands? OK! Let's agree to disagree
Also, as just a mere reality check of Bitcoin pyschology here, since when did complete noobs get to throw money at Bitcoin near an ATH and get to ride a 50% move to the upside within a couple of months with zero consequences? I don't believe these institutional investors are any smarter than Bitcoiners in my opinon, and if anything, when push comes to shove, they will have much weaker hands. They want Bitcoin because of price appreciation and as a store of value. If that store of value is to the downside, I'm certain they won't be interested until it presents itself as a store of value / price appreciation asset again.
Sounds like a long shot theory and you are talking your book.. .
sucks to be uie pooie.. sold at $48k or was it $46k?
It was $48K without regrets. As I said, I'll let the degens trade the rest... they are the only ones trading >$50K right now.
Hodlers aside (that obviously aren't trading hodl stash, like myself).I even could of re-bought at $40K, but wasn't interested in such a speculative trade. Crazy I know, I don't care for degen pump chasing anymore! I've changed.
PS - I'm not salty that I sold at $48K either,
Ok.. $48k then. You might as well buy back....
Oh you wouldn't want to do that.
You would rather stick with your principles.
I'd rather buy stability right now than a correction, that could go deeper than $48K. So again WRONG!
I still hold the majority of Bitcoin, just simply have a decent amount of "dry powder" for a correction (for probably the first time ever).
It is good that you did not blow your whole wadd on this.
But you still sound a wee bit desperate
(rather than objective) in regards to the whole matter.
I'm lacking objectivity? Did you even read your own words? Unlikely to ever go below $50K again, more like to reach $100K within two months? Objective much? Whereas I'm willing to acknowledge that $80K-$100K is possibly this year, even if I find it unlikely, I'm not ruling that out, and am prepared for such scenarios. Predominantly because I think it would all end in tears if happened before 2025.
I was never going to sell the majority of my stash, that would be insane right now. I was simply selling some scepticism, not even weakness. By holding on from >$50K I'd be putting my faith in the institutions that bought up the price, which I'm simply not willing to do. It's a personal choice, not much else here. I'm not expecting you to understand either, don't worry.
If I didn't sell $48K to the upside, I'd be selling it to the downside, and looking at price as I type,
Stop trying to suck us into your stupidity. Yeah you would have had been smart if you would have bought back around $38.5k, but you were too stubborn, and you think that what you are saying is so obvious that guys here should be selling.. .. that is quite lame.
Fuck that, I'm glad I didn't buy $40K!
Oh my god what the fuck are you talking about? My days of degenerate trading are much behind me (at least with Bitcoin). Still happy to trade shictoins for SATS, but I don't chase pumps anymore, it's a recipe for disaster. I wasn't selling $48K for a trade, that probably the first point you missed out of everything.
I think that downside may already be sooner than we think. Also if not obvious, I'm happy to ride a 250% move over a year during a recovery stage, I don't care about the final 50% parabolic move to the upside, I'll leave that to the degenerative gamblers to take advantage of, or get rekt by.[/i]
I doubt that guys waiting for up and buying on the way down (or on dips or even DCA buying) are even close to as degenerate as someone waiting/hoping for down when we just crossed over into ATHs for the first time in 2 years and 4 months.. 30 months.
Just look at the ETF inflows, they weren't buying on the way down and waiting for up, they were waiting for up and buying on the way up, and still are. What you're talking about is traditional Bitcoin investors / retail investors, because buying the dip has historically always been profitable. Institutions quite simply don't have the same blind faith as us Bitcoiners, hence they wait for strength rather than buying weakness.
This is just a simple reality of institutions buying into Bitcoin, and quite frankly, we'll see how it plays out in the immediate term and well as long-term. Long-term I don't doubt it will be beneficial, but short-term, I remain far from convinced (mainly as there is nothing to prove otherwise so far, this is a short-term concept right now). Putting all your faith into the short-term goes against the fundamentals of Bitcoin imo. I refuse to be blinded by these so-called game-changing institutional on-ramps, I'll instead put my faith into Bitcoin, it's cycles, it's fundamentals, and every other technical aspect of it's existence. Not fucking ETFS.
There are ways to play these matters in order to be prepared for either direction, and not ONLY are you seeming to be overly prepared for down, you are likely to have the odds quite greatly against you... so that's too bad we have not heard from you for the past month or so, when you probably should have been buying back in, while we were still in the $40ks even if we did not hit your lower $30k BTC price expectations.
How patronising, how could I be prepared for mainly down when I still hold the majority of my Bitcoin? Makes no sense. That's literally the idea of being prepared for upside (more so than downside)
Because ultimately, regardless of this year, I still believe Bitcoin will increase dramatically in 2025 (let's say by 2026), so I'm not rushing to offload my stash here. Just remaining overly cautious.
And again, don't assume you know what I should have been doing or wish I had done. I'm glad I didn't buy at $40K. I was drawn into this market threw degenerate gambling in August 2021 (degen season), which while was successful and paid off (who wasn't successful?), I realised it wasn't why I wanted to be invested in Bitcoin
(it's not just about the cRaZy GaInZ). I'd prefer to exercise more caution these days, focus more on portfolio balancing and risk aversion, rather than chasing every pump and percentage that comes the markets way. Based on everything I'd said, I believe I have reason to be cautious right now, rather than being blinded by the ETF hype and inflows that are a short-term districations (as explained), and instead focus on Bitcoin and how it's always been.
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