How dare you?



 

Yep... the merits have been achieved for Legendary.. and also largely the number of posts seem to be enough too..  because in order to become Legendary, you have to average at least 14 posts per every two week period, which you seem to have achieved (even currently - ahead of schedule).

So, surely the only matter left is to gain activity points, and for you, it appears that so long as you post at least one post every two weeks, then you will have reached the requirements of the legendary lottery which can happen anywhere between 2 years and 3 years of the beginning of your account.. which would be activity levels of somewhere in the range of 728 and 1092 (something like that).  Even though merits were not an issue for me, I am pretty sure that I was over 1,000 activity points when I finally ranked up through the Legendary lottery.

You seem to be analyzing in loops and hoops in order to downplay the facts around the microstrategy entrance into bitcoin and also the impact of such a bold move from microstrategy, whether considering short term or long term effects.

You can analyze however you like and even suggest that bitcoin is at the top of some kind of cycle when it seems way more likely that whatever UPpity bitcoin cycle we are in, if any, seems to be considerably early in such cycle with Microstrategy (and even the quantity of Saylor's personal purchases) having a direct impact on  BTC upwards price pressures and also serving as a model and influence of other people whether normies, high networth individuals, companies or governments.

Of course, you can frame Microstrategy's behavior as an aberration or even consider him as a risk loving crazy person, but in the end, there are still only 21 million coins and there are only 900 new coins made available on a daily basis.. so from where are the coins coming and seems quite likely that we are going to continue to witness ongoing upwards price pressures on BTC prices in the coming 3 to 18 months, even if we might also experience some BTC price corrections along the way too, the ultimate direction seems to be UPpity... so sure, your milage (and framing of the matter) may well vary from this scenario that I am highlighting...see it as you wish.... sorry for your loss...       

Huh?

dee corn has decided.. and we seem to be largely going UPpity...

In udder words, this price movement that you believe that you might be seeing is totally NOT unusual to get a bit of a rewinding (some might call coiling) on the way up.

We really have not had any kind of meaningful correction, so merely bouncing around within 5% ($13,439, so far) of the $14,100 top is largely white noise in the whole scheme of having had gone up nearly 28% for the month of October (just trying to put a timeframe on such UPpity, even if timeframes can sometimes be a bit arbitrary in themselves).

With a 28% price surge for the month of October, even experiencing a 10% correction (which would be $12,690 - I am not rooting for this) would not really be interfering with our current ongoing UPpity momentum in any kind of meaningful way.  We have not even had a 10% correction since late August/early September.

In other words, wake me up regarding whining about purported DOWNity when we get to a 15% or greater downward correction number.. (which currently 15% correction from the current local top would be $12k-ish) otherwise any of this back and forth and purported UP and DOWN is largely meh...   ..    

Definitely better to look at returns on a zoomed out and longer time horizon - because the shorter-term snapshots can sometimes lose the sentiment(s) regarding what is really going on when comparing bitcoin to other assets.

Even though bitcoin adoption is ongoingly continuing to increase (frequently difficult to recognize while we are caught within the data changes), with some of this data, it is still difficult to understand how it continues to be so difficult for a lot of normies (and even institutions) to actually come around to the ideas of what is bitcoin - and a lot of this information has been out there for a decent amount of time - even if such information has ben packaged in various (sometimes confusing and ambiguous) ways in the past, and surely a lot of normies do get distracted by theoretical ideas that bitcoin is "at the top of a bubble" and/or theoretical ideas that they are too late to really be able to profit from making some kind of an investment into bitcoin, which bitcoin pessimistic speculations look silly in retrospect even though such ideas continue to persist as I type this post... and will likely continue to persist into near term future years (2-6-10 years), too.. even while ongoing and face-melting levels of transferrings  of wealth continues to take place (even if there are decently-sized and seemingly extended periods of time of bitcoin dips along the way).


Since bitcoin is so volatile (and likely to continue to be volatile, relative to other assets), it may b good to consider framing some of your passing down of wealth in terms of percentages, too, even if there remains some openness in that, too.

October was surely UPpity, even while September had been down - yet even accounting for September's DOWNity amount, by subtracting out the down amount, bitcoin was still UP twice as much as September had gone down.

TLDR:  Feels good man.

Hopefully, your descendants appreciate all your hard work, because frequently getting handed free wealth does not necessarily allow for the development of good character in the wealth recipients - but surely the idea of being able to start off a life journey from better foundations does seem like it would be a good thing - just getting a formal education, for example, which seems to have become way more costly in the USA in recent years.. ridiculously so, and causing some young peeps (wrongly I believe) to conclude that the costs of getting a formal education outweigh the benefits.. even though there might be truth to that, but there surely can be a lot of benefits in learning formally rather than attempting to be a self-didactic and screw things up...


I had actually attempted to learn some formal disciplines on my own when I was younger (before I had gone to college).. and it just did not work.. because I did not know what I did not know, and so it was so easy to get onto the wrong tracks without realizing it. College surely opened up my learning how to learn.. that I had not developed in my youth... and may not have ever developed without such guidance.


Actually, this is true, too.

There may be ways that nuevo richies, such as us bitcoiners would be able to contribute towards empowering our descendants without necessarily delving into direct hand-outs.. but surely, to each their own in terms of figuring out what they believe to be the better uses of wealth including the extent to which transferring down is good or should be channeled in some way(s).

You come off as trolling with that question.

I doubt that there are too many of us who actually believe in an imminency that BTC becoming the world reserve currency, or whatever other achievements would need to be reached in order to meet "eats the world" status.  That's just pie in the sky, and you seem to be way the fuck more conservative than me in terms of the imminency of such a status so I don't know why you would suggest that as any kind of reasonable approach to BTC - especially for someone like me who has already proclaimed that I am approaching such a status that I would likely want to liquidate more of my BTC stash rather than to hold it or to continue to accumulate it.

Sure, if someone has some kind of longer time frame (maybe someone in their 20s or 30s) then maybe the ongoing accumulation of BTC might cause them to engage in tactics of never selling BTC so they could more reasonably entertain speculation that by the time that they are ready to start liquidating that bitcoin may have reached such world reserve (eat the world) status - but even something like that would likely be at least 20 years into the future and maybe more realistically 50 years - even though at the same time we can also appreciate that the "suddenly" part of "gradually then suddenly" could end up playing out in a sooner surprise timeframe - of 5 or 10 years.... but nonetheless, still would be ridiculous to be banking on some kind of scenario that might not happen rather than a scenarios that are more likely...

Do you even understand the use of the 208 week moving average as a thought about planning bitcoin cashing out / valuation strategies.  It is conservative and it is based on what is and being able to act upon "what is" rather than "what might be."   Yeah, I talk about what might happen in bitcoin, but my financials have ongoingly been tied to where I am at rather than pie in the sky expectations... that is another reason that my previous hopiums (when I first got into bitcoin in 2013 and thereafter) about BTC price performance was a kind of hopium that bitcoin would be able to at least equal the performance of my traditional investments and average 6% per year of price appreciation.. and any BTC price performance that goes beyond averaging 6% per year would be viewed as icing on the cake (I still have some of that thinking in my head, even though I believe that I can kind of bank on higher floors because those price moves have already happened in BTC** which thereby allowed me to move over to the 208-week moving average in terms of thinking about my own budgeting, etc etc etc.)

Edited earlier post to add in this note:

** By the way, even if I were to estimate my cost per BTC in a very generous way to have been in the $1,000 per BTC price territory, currently my BTC price performance is way beyond those minimum expectations of 6% per year, which through my quick calculation would have current put BTC prices at about  $1,504 per BTC... So, yeah, I have quite a cushion, and at current BTC prices, my average per year is currently a bit above 45% per year.  So, really there is quite a cushion See two comparisons, below:

              6%/yr     45%/yr
2013      $1,000      $1,000
2014      $1,060      $1,450
2015      $1,124      $2,103
2016      $1,191      $3,049
2017      $1,262      $4,421
2018      $1,338      $6,410
2019      $1,419      $9,294
2020      $1,504      $13,476

I am NOT proclaiming that I can even expect continued returns of 45% per year (that might be unrealistic to expect such, even though it is possible for such a thing to happen), and my investment could revert to much lower average returns per year levels, including averaging something like 6% here on out, and I have have NO problema with that kind of reduced performance playing out.. especially since I already am experiencing a large profit cushion from my original BTC performance expectations.  

So, again, why?  Why change over into some kind of nonsense pie in the sky speculation when it is absolutely not necessary for me to already largely be in a kind of "fuck you" status without having to incorporate such pie in the sky framings (bitcoin reserve currency status) that may or may not happen in my lifetime?


I have been sticking with my system of selling somewhere under 1% of the value of my BTC stash for every 10% BTC price rise (and I had done a recent calculation that shows it to be even smaller than that), but it is already a system that I am comfortable with.. been doing since $250.. and it does not seem to be any kind of problem... so why fix it if it is not broken?  You want me to stop doing all of this and wait until $70k or something like that?  For me, it is not necessary.. I can still sell decent amounts of my BTC stash if we reach $70k, if I so choose.. I already have a lot of it projected out.. I have BTC sell orders that currently go up to $36k, and I can easily add more sell orders within incrementalism or lump sum.... and I largely already have projected out those numbers, and either way I am rich as fuck.. and already having trouble spending all of my money.. so not really sure why I need to structure some kind of further delayed gratification or some plan that fits your ideas rather than my own.



That's great.. and maybe it will work for you.  I am glad that you are accounting for your own situation, and especially if you are saying that you need a minimum of $6 million to feel comfortable with fuck you status and I am saying that $2 million is good enough.. especially if accounting for 208 week moving average...  .. but either way there are still needs to tailor whatever approach to cashflow, other investments, view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, risk tolerance, timeline and time, skills and abilities to learn, plan, tweak and reallocate from time to time as needed including considering whether to trade and how.


I am not sure.  How any of us might evaluate would be accounting for a variety of the assets - not only bitcoin, but if we feel that we need $6,666 per month (which is the $2million principle) to feel comfortable or we feel that we need $18k per month (which is the nearly $6 million in principle), we have to look at all of our investments and to se what kinds of cashflow we can generate from those other investments.

Of course, if we only have one kind of asset (or two BTC and dollars), then the calculations are going to be easier, but there still might be other assets and determinations regarding how much cashflow can be generated from various assets.  Let's say, for example, you have a goal of the $6,666 per month, and let's say that you have $500k that is in a 401k.  Depending on your age, you may or may not be eligible to start dipping into such 401k funds, so in that sense you have to generate your income from other assets.  Apartments might generate income, but if you merely own houses or other forms of real estate that you are using in various ways, you might not b generating income from that or maybe if you are generating some income from such properties, you might fold that income back into the property expenses, but overall property would not be a very liquid asset that you would use to figure out your ability to generate cashflow from it.. even if it could be a kind of emergency value that exists out there that could be liquidated in the future, if needed.



At least BTC prices are going up.. so that should be able to take away some personal pressures, I would hope, unless you had been too busy betting on down, not adequately preparing for UP, overly anticipating flat or things like that.  

Some of your earlier bearish talk could actually have been indications that you might not have been adequately preparing for UP... but whatever, that's on you, ultimately in terms of what balance any of us may have reached in recent times in terms of both preparing for up and preparing for down at the same time... can definitely be a challenge and a dilemma.  

There had been times that I was running out of cash to buy some of the dips, so there were times in which I felt that I did not have enough cash in my reserves in order to take advantage of down or MOAR down, were it to happen.  Even now, I have something like 97% bitcoin and 3% cash (in the funds that are dedicated to BTC).. which, to me, seems to be a bit overly-weighted in BTC.. so I don't have any personal reservations to skim off some additional cash from my BTC here and there along the way.. because on an ongoing basis - even since 2015, I have largely been over invested in BTC.. but I have systems in place in which I have made myself comfortable to deal with whichever way the BTC price happens to go (seemingly UP.. and that's certainly fine with me, too).

Edited above to add price performance analysis note:

Wouldn't a more important question be about whether we are able to retire earlier than what we would have otherwise?

There is a bit of a factor of age that does allow less enjoyment - and at the same time if you are in your 30s or 40s, it might be difficult to pull any kind of early retirement without having greater cushion - some folks who are getting into their 60s might become eligible to draw into supplemental sources of income, too... so there are all of those angles.


Hm?  you are itching for a fight, aren't you?     (maybe you are getting a little bored with so much BTC UPpity in recent months?  Gosh zooming out a bit.. it is starting to almost look like a straight line up since March 21, 2020... even though I do remember having a few decent sized corrections in there and even flats.. but NOT really feeling like much of any flat or down correction when looking at that period.. a little here and there, but geez)       

Seems like I posted on this topic, previously.... and there are surely a lot of ways to both measure your wealth and to talk about your wealth and your various allocation and reallocation strategies.

It seems that my talking about my tactics does cause me to reframe my way of thinking about these matters from time to time... take, for example, my recent adoption of the 200-week moving average as a way of measuring downside volatility likelihood.  I likely adopted that within the past 6-9 months, and then my recent conversion from using the 200-week moving average to using the 208-week moving average was only accomplished in the past month or so.

We are NOT all going to frame these kinds of measuring matters in the same way, and hopefully we are able to learn from one another... I do, however, believe that it is not good to be playing with slippery slope topics of talking up the dabbling in shitcoins in this thread - even if there are reasonable ways to cause such shitcoinery to be profitable.. it is just bad taste and disrespectful to the topic of this thread.. Sure, you can push it and probably no one is going to do anything about it, except for call you a shitcoiner.. but hey.. you can do what you want.. you been around these parts for long enough.. and you have not been shy about expressing your opinions on a regular basis.. and probably I agree with you quite a large bit of the time... not that I hav any kind of exact calculation for that but it is likely a bit over 50% of  the time.. Hate to admit it.... go figure?  

you are coming off as overly pessimistic of the likely direction of fees, Biodom, and you are seemingly bitter about rich peeps, such as Saylor coming into bitcoin as a newbie (and maybe Saylor is revered too much, too, from your perspective?) and hoarding block space (hoarding a sizeable stake in bitcoin without serving time or suffering like many of us long term HODLers)..


Could be, but I am sticking with my original observation.  


Your choice to be a shitcoiner.. and your choice to want to lure others into such practices through posts within this here thread.       

Surely will be interesting to find out if we are going to be able to experience 31 more days at BTC daily wighted prices of $12,584 or more (or would 32 more days be needed to break such streak?).


#metoo

hahahaahaha

 


I cannot really disagree with anything you said here, cAPSLOCK - even though you seem to be giving arguably positive press to scammer/shitcoiners

Yeah.. I think that this is showing that scammers can try to take advantage of data leaks that occurred earlier.... so yeah, they are skimming the information that they had obtained in order to contact those people (including you) with the objective of reeling in gullible folks... they are likely to obtain the seed phrases through the cooperation of some gullible folks through this "reaching out" process.

Not smart.  hahahahaaha

 


Actually, on a personal level, I believe that the status that each of us should aspire to achieve would be largely minimum calculation of the then current BTC price at the time of our cashing out whatever amounts of dollar value of BTC that we then needed for whatever happens to be our reason(s).  Of course, if there are relatively obvious BTC price movements, such as a seemingly short-term dip or a seemingly short term spike then we might choose to cash out more or faster during a spike and less and slower during a dip.

Probably part of achieving fuck you status would be hardly giving any shits about the BTC price when making such choices of incremental cashenings of lily fiend.

Some time around early 2018, I tentatively decided that long term sub $5k was my NOT cashening out threshold.. and it is starting to seem quite likely that we are not going to have to worry about sub $5k BTC prices any longer... so largely, vapourminer, I may be entering into a kind of similar status as you in terms of my NOT really giving too many shits about whatever happens to be the current price - except to the extent that there might be extreme and obvious scenarios of seemingly short-term BTC price movements.

Actually, in recent times, I have been trying to increase some of my spending in order that I might start to enter into a kind of threshold arena that I might need to dip into portions of my BTC.  The fact of the matter remains that I have lived pretty prudently for so long in my life (meaning living within my means and making sure that I always have a decent cash cushion that involves some kinds of investments and savings, so merely spending rather than investing or saving portions of my cashflow results in increases in my standard of living without ven haing to dip into my BTC stash (or my cash balances that are already largely dedicated to BTC).



For sure, either a downward deathspiral scenario (that might not quite go to zero) and/or an actual going to zero scenario are becoming way less and less within any realm of reasonable BTC price trajectories... So I am still thinking that the 208-week moving average serves as a very decent and reasonable assessment of extreme BTC price bottoms, and currently as I type, such 208-week moving average is touching on $6,800.   No guarantees, of course.. but seemingly a reasonable way of assessing BTC value and accounting for more likely scenarios (including likely extreme BTC price bottoms). 

Yeah.... Whoaza!!!!!  

Entry threshold for top 20 is $14,840..

I wonder if the day's weighted BTC price were to come in at exactly $14,840 again, are there other criteria to determine which one should go on top? - or is there an ability to go into further digits to the right to be able to see which weighted average would be higher?  

If we were to go 8 digits, the odds for a tie would be quite low, no?  

Lot's of BIG duties and responsibilities for yefi in the coming year or more, so it seems.    

Are you referring to bcash...

Seems misleading to use the word bitcoin to refer to projects that are not tied to bitcoin... of course, we could say bitcoin lightning or bitcoin liquid or use the term "bitcoin" to refer to some project that is specifically pegged to bitcoin.

There is a project out there called bcash sv, and there are a lot of people who like to refer to that project with the name bitcoin contained therein, which is quite misleading, too... by the way, where has been our lil buddy, jbreher, one of the bcash sv proponents who has been lecturing us upon the inevitable blockalypse coming to bitcoin and his proclamations that bcash sv might be able to play a role in rescuing bitcoin from such hypothesized calamities?


 a wwwwweeeeeee   lil reckt picnic bear?

 

Don't go away.. we likie uie so muchie... especially if you would admit that you are and were wrong.. which does NOT seem to be too likely to happening.   

Your first question about where money is coming from is a bit unclear, Ayiranorea.

Are you asking where Microstrategy or Saylor got his money?  They been in business for more than 20 years.

Are you asking how BTC prices go up and allow Microstratgy and Saylor to have on paper profits that are so high?

your question is rhetorical, right?  You don't really need to understand if the profits are real, do you?

Your second point about a supposed "long term process" seems to be the opposite of correct.

The fact of the matter is that Saylor and Microstrategy got into bitcoin recently.. at least that is the official story, and there are not really any facts to contradict that they got into bitcoin recently.  Microstrategy and Saylor seem to be examples of entities and persons getting into bitcoin and profiting very quickly (a kind of "good" timing).  A lot of short term players would like to get into bitcoin and then have prices go up and then withdraw with dollar profits, but that does not seem to be the strategy that either Saylor nor Microstrategy is playing... even though with any investment there is likely a decent amount of comfort if an investor puts in a considerably large front-loaded sum of money and has the investment go up very quickly.. there is likely a decent amount of comfort in having that - even if it might seem to be mostly on paper.

Good point to emphasize, fillippone.

We surely have some Orwellian double-speak shit going on in recent times, and in the USA, when credit cards first came out, there were some rules that businesses could not refuse to accept physical cash.   And, sure I cannot remember the details, exactly there were also rulings about the fungibility of cash, in that businesses and the government would NOT be able to black list certain bill serial numbers - and a lot of the fungibility issues and even the forcing of businesses to take cash seem to have gone out the window due to the exaggeration of a virus.

I am not even trying to suggest that the virus is not real.. just that there seems to be a lot of convenient war upon physical cash.. and sure bitcoin is meant to be a kind of substitute for physical cash, and surely bitcoin HODLers are going to continue to find challenges in terms of challenges to fungibility...which therefore could end up affecting value  if vendors have some kind of requirement to ensure the purity of the bitcoins that they are accepting.

Of course, if bitcoins are not endorsed by governments, then they have rights to treat bitcoin differently from their own government payment systems - which is likely to continue to be an ongoing challenge for bitcoin in the coming years... probably 10-20 years or longer---- who knows how a lot of this plays out, even though options are continuing to be built that could cause security through obscurity, but still both parties in the peer to peer transaction do need to feel ready, willing and able to transact and surely the more that KYC/AML is ascribed to parties then the more uncomfortable they become - and surely seems to be more of an issue the higher the amount of value - and even governments seem to want to get into the business of private transactions for increasingly lower and lower amounts.. even a $10k threshold that has been around since about the early 70s through the bank secrecy act  hardly means anything as it did nearly 50 years ago... that value has been inflated away to cause government interference into way lower thresholds, that $10k in 1970 would be worth about $67k today.. but the government still wants to know more and more and more by NOT adjusting the threshold based on inflation.   

Your example sucks because there is ONLY a 1.5% spread between your buy and your sell prices.

And, really the OP and the title of this thread does NOT refer to selling even being beneficiary, so you are extrapolating more into this particular topic if you believe that incorporating selling into your practice could still work for the subject matter of this thread.

Personally, I am not against some small amount of selling - however, I do believe that a lot of benefits can come to a lot of people coming into bitcoin if they first attempt to focus on their buying and their HODLing way before they even begin to think about selling any bitcoin..

In other words, get one part of the formula correct before attempting to apply some kind of more advanced technique.

The buying on dips and holding is NO whimpy formula... You can become rich as fuck by merely focusing on that aspect of the formula... so let's talk about that, first.  What might be your accumulation goal?  Have you met it by engaging in buying on dips and HODLing... Once you achieve those buying and accumulation goals then maybe consider selling or entering the realm of selling.. and thereby going to some other thread to talk about those selling dynamics that are not the focus of this thread.  AmInotkoreck? 

Sure, another approach to accumulating bitcoin might be to incorporate both buying and selling.. but that is not what is being discussed in this thread.. that is a different strategy than what is being proposed in this thread.. and therefore likely a different topic, too.

It could go sideways at $20k, but the odds are quite low, and I get a bit irritated fantasizing about scenarios in which the odds are low rather than attempting to focus on more likely scenarios.. sure we have to be prepared for anything but seems quite unrealistic to be focusing upon less likely scenarios.



Don't get me wrong.  There may be opportunities that surely present themselves that had not been present, and accordingly a damned compelling reason to cash out a decent amount or all of the BTC stash because of such presented opportunity.  So, I surely am NOT asserting that situations might not come about or there might not be ways to reframe the situation in which investing in something other than BTC appears to be the better conclusion.

But there could also be some problems if the conclusion is reached to pull the fuck you lever upon incomplete information and inadequate planning and the conclusion to pull the fuck you lever ends up bing wrong because of lack of preparedness and inadequate analysis of the situation.



10 or 20 years ago, $1 million might have been an adequate target, and sure $1million still might be an adequate target for some people, but it also seems that $1million is becoming less and less  likely to be adequate as a target.

I had suggested $2million as a better target - but even that seems b on shaky grounds when we hav members like Biodom suggesting that $6million might be the minimum fuck you status entry point (which I still consider to be a bit above average.. or too pie in the sky in terms of the vast majority of normies).

I have also incorporated some other safety measures into my own way of calculating fuck you status value, and that is to use the 208 week moving average BTC price, and surely my methodology includes an emphasis to continue to HODL bitcoin rather than converting to dollars, so I consider that the 208 week moving average would be a safe way to calculate whether fuck  you status has ben reached and also to provide a decent amount of assurance that the fuck you lever is not pulled too soon.  So currently the 208 week moving average is at about $6,800, and so that would require about 147 BTC.

So, yeah, concededly if you want to keep decent portions of your wealth in BTC, then I believe that you should be using the 208 week moving average to calculate the value of those BTC holdings.  Of course, some of us have quasi-liquid value that is in other assets, so we may well be combining various asset categories to verify whether we have reached our fuck you status amount.




I generally agree that it may be more accurate to presume that for anyone to really be getting close to confident fuck you status, they likely would have needed to be in bitcoin for at least one more cycle, but maybe even that is a bit presumptuous in terms of considering the extent that someone may even be getting close to having had been able to build a fuck you status stash of BTC... or combination of BTC and other investments... but sure the longer that someone has been in bitcoin and accumulating bitcoin, then we might develop some presumptions that they may have built a large enough stash to be able to start shaving off some profits, whether that is shaving large proportions or some may be transitioning into more of a mindset that I (and others) have been advocating in recent times which is figuring out ways in which large portions of the BTC stash might not need to be sold and still be able to carry out a kind of fuck you status exit (entry?  / transition).




I doubt that you can assert with any level of confidence inspiration that your predictions have been steady for any kind of meaningful amount of time, except perhaps your seemingly ongoing tendency to take where-ever we might be and to paint a pessimistic viewpoint on that.. and then to assign too high of odds to such pessimistic viewpoint.  So, I agree that it is not helpful for us to become too optimistic, but there can be problems with continuing to paint too pessimistic scenarios, too.

In the end, yeah, there are a variety of scenarios that could play out, but there is some validity to looking at how BTC prices have performed in the past, too.   We have ongoing facts on the ground that continue to help us to put credibility on the four year fractal models and to see what kinds of price dynamics happen in BTC.. and it dos not tend to stick around previous ATHs, and there are reasons for that... there is a kind of psychology that goes with BTC price movement, and psychology is helped to be backed up when we can witness certain kinds of events happening at the same time to show that buying pressure is continuing from a variety of angles (and you can choose to see them or not, or you can choose to hypothesize about the supposed smaller potato weak hands who may be selling their coins too soon.... the choice of what to see is yours, and I don't even believe that I am spinning any of this, I just continue to see you emphasizing a lot of glass half-full kinds of scenarios... and yeah, sure they might play out.. but I am not going to place a lot of weight into such unlikelihoods even if you believe them with all your heart... #nohomo....  ).

It seems to me that a few points are worth noting, if we are attempting to account for 2013 in regards to what might happen.

I will concede to you that there is more than one way that an exponential curve could play out in the four year fractal and still largely be within free market parameters of expectations.  Accordingly, 2013 does represent a double top kind of model, and 2017 represents a single top kind of model.

So, sure, it is possible that we could end up having a 2020/21/22/23 run up that has more than one top, and the various corrections during the process of getting to the ultimate blow off top might cause a shakening of a lot of weak hands along the way.  So surely there could be various ways in which HODLers sell way too many coins too soon, and actually, if you think about the matter, more deeply, these kinds of tactics might be the better ways that the status quo rich may be able to lessen (even if they cannot completely prevent) some of the impacts of one of the likely largest transfers of wealth that the world has ever seen.  

There could be all kinds of tragedies along the way in which some HODLers are tricked into selling way too many coins too soon... and if you are 50, 60, 70 or 80 years old, you might not give as many shits about any of those matters (except to the extent that you might have been planning to pass some of your wealth to your descendants) because your own timeline is NOT long enough, and you are still able to figure out ways to considerably profit from however you play your bitcoin cards.  So of course, the more years that you have, the more that you would likely want to have more power in whatever ways that you choose to allocate your wealth for the longer time-frame of what you expect your life to be or the estate (legacy) that you might want to plan to pass down to your heirs.

So, in some sense, I may be kind of agreeing with you about various ways that weak hands could be shaken from some or all of their coins - but I still do NOT buy into any story that you might be wanting to outline that attempts to ascribe power to the weak hands bringing down the market or stories that they BTC price is failing to go up because too many weak hands are ready, willing and able sell their coins.

Sure, there is always a dynamic in which peeps with wealth (sometimes referred to as bearwhales) are going to want to employ resources to keep BTC prices down as low as they can and for as long as they can, but still some of the dynamics of how much they are able to keep the price down or to keep it down may also be limited - including that we still remain in relatively early stages of adoption and some of the other peeps with money (and even regular joe blow public, retail) are going to continue to contribute to ongoing upward price pressures on lil fiend, even if some folks, that you seem to be relating to, Searing, are nervous, valuing their wealth in lockability dollars, but they are still likely to be overwhelmed by ongoing adoption rather than really causing inabilities for BTC prices to significantly rise beyond previous all time highs.

As I already mentioned, similar kinds of stories were told in 2015/2016 regarding how so many folks were supposedly going to be selling around $1k blah blah blah... and how it took so much more capital to push BTC prices above $1k as compared to how much capital it had taken to push BTC prices above $100 blah blah blah...

nonsense...

We continue to witness entrances of new players into bitcoin who are going to help to contribute to likely inevitable  and ongoing upwards BTC price pressures, evn if we are getting into BTC prices that currently seem too difficult to sustain.. whether referring to $25k prices or $100k prices or even higher prices such as $500k or $1 million that may well end up being way more sustainable than previously thunk.  




On a personal level you can do what you like.

Personally, I have never suggested completely HOLDING everything through BTC price appreciation periods, but instead shaving some off along the way, and how much to shave off should be contemplated by projecting out scenarios such as the BTC price rising very quickly and/or the BTC price rising slowly and going through interim painstaking correction cycles - including longer 2-3 year correction cycles that cause some peeps to regret NOT having had sold more BTC in the arena of blow of top prices.  I personally believe that those of us who have been through previous BTC cycles and even including peeps who may not have been through previous cycles but have enough imagination when they look at previous charts, we have enough information to be able extrapolate various scenarios, even extreme scenarios and attempt to pee pare our lil selfies for those various extreme scenarios.. and having had gone through a few of these kinds of outrageous extreme scenarios, many of us have come to realize both that it can seem surreal as fuck to actually be going through an extreme scenario that you had projected as NOT very likely, while at the same time, if a relatively small number of us had a "kind of workable" plan in place, then we end up feeling much better for having had made such a plan and we even feel better if we make various tweaks to the plan along the way because the plan put us in a way better position than what we would have been in, if we had not created such a plan and had not tried to largely follow such plan.

Of course, each of us also have our own limitations in creativity in terms of how much we are really able to extrapolate what we are going to do under various scenarios and we might well even end up gravitating towards scenarios that end up NOT playing out.. and then we feel that we have not prepared enough.. so I am NOT even suggesting that everyone is going to be able to really plan for all of the scenarios.. even though there may be ways that anyone could do better at least outlining some extreme scenarios so they are not totally caught off guard by selling too much too soon or the employment of other gambling techniques that may not feel too good if they end up NOT playing out very well... I am not saying to use margin.. even though some folks become so confident that they end up using margin to screw their own selfies in situations where they did not need to be screwed.. why get greedy when bitcoin already has asymmetric probabilities sitting right in front of us.. (I am surely NOT suggesting that you, Searing, are someone who is inclined to employ margin even though you may be someone who might still end up having regrets because of lack of adequately pee paring for certain scenarios that are outside of your expectations).

PS...
By the way, I have heard some fairly prominent bitcoin folks assert that people should consider selling all or large portions of their BTC holdings if it would result in "life changing" impacts upon them... And, personally, I believe this "life changing impacts" concept would likely cause too many BTC HODLers to employ inadequately contemplated actions that involve selling too much bitcoins too soon... It is not a good parameter, especially if they are failing to figure out some kind of balance for what they might be doing with the money, whether it is buying real estate, investing in a business, investing in education of oneself, buying PMs, getting into equities, buying an annuity, keeping more money in fiat, or buying some consumer goods.  Of course, not all uses of money are equal, and frequently when we are young, we need to put our capital to work in various and if we are ONLY invested in bitcoin, it may well be prudent to diversify a bit more outwardly into other assets, even if many of them might NOT hold their value too well or be too much dependent upon fiat values or the lack of value that is given to so much debt being out there in circulation in our current society... Still some investments are better than others, and I suppose in the end, I had largely created this particular PS because I wanted to quibble with the vague concept of "life changing impacts" because it remains an inadequate concept on its own, without at least attempting to explore whether you might be allocating away from bitcoin because of needs to invest in yourself, in investment goods or in consumption goods.. good to determine what you are investing in and also analyzing other particular circumstances that are pertinent to your situation including cashflow, other investments, view of bitcoin compared with other investments, risk tolerance, timeline and time, skills abilities to plan learn along the way and to tweak your strategies along the way including reallocating and whether and the extent that you trade at all.