Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[savetherainforest]

https://i.imgur.com/cfChYGT.jpg

Tonight I'm going to sell my soul to the witch.
I wish you all a happy Halloween night.
Take care

Here is a ritual incantation you won't believe:

I miss nihilist Lambie.
I miss nazist R0ach.
I miss technocrat-bureaucrat Adam.

This doesn't feel like winning anymore.

Good enough incantation??

[DaRude]

https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/bitcoin-miners-iran-have-new-buyer-central-bank

"New regulations ask miners to sell their crypto to the central bank."

When (not if) the global central bank arms race to stock up on Bitcoin reserves begins in earnest then 100k will be dirt cheap coins.

Stocking up on coins with no history, interesting.

Doubt they care about history. Most likely subsidizing the electricity, then requiring miners to sell for their useless fiat. Pretty sure there's no need to mine if they were ready to buy with gold coins

[savetherainforest]

https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/bitcoin-miners-iran-have-new-buyer-central-bank

"New regulations ask miners to sell their crypto to the central bank."

When (not if) the global central bank arms race to stock up on Bitcoin reserves begins in earnest then 100k will be dirt cheap coins.

But doesn't this mean that they will buy from exchange with the money they get from Central Banks? And probably will ask more money then the spot price for this "favor".
Or they will just hoard it and not sell it at all?...
Or just make it disappear. Basically there is no rule against miners just moving their equipment in smaller apartment-house or off-electricity-grid smaller farms. And government won't know who is mining them and where they come, or where they are being sold.... Duhhh??

*Edit: Any scenario, will make the price pump! So... I guess... its bullish news!

[explorer]

rollercoaster.gif

[cAPSLOCK]

Weird selloff with no volume = weird selloff with no volume.

Very kookoo...

[Hueristic]

https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/bitcoin-miners-iran-have-new-buyer-central-bank

"New regulations ask miners to sell their crypto to the central bank."

When (not if) the global central bank arms race to stock up on Bitcoin reserves begins in earnest then 100k will be dirt cheap coins.

Stocking up on coins with no history, interesting.

Doubt they care about history. Most likely subsidizing the electricity, then requiring miners to sell for their useless fiat. Pretty sure there's no need to mine if they were ready to buy with gold coins

I'll let smarter guys than me Mull on this.

[explorer]

Weird selloff with no volume = weird selloff with no volume.

Very kookoo...

Shake Shake Shake....  Shake Shake Shake...

Shakin' the tree, but no coins falling out.  What comes next?

[Toxic2040]

Brian Brooks got his start in traditional finance before joining Coinbase in 2018 and is currently the acting comptroller of the currency. In this episode, he discusses:
● how his background in traditional financial services led him to take a position at Coinbase
● whether the role blockchain and crypto will likely play in the financial future is being recognized at the federal level
● whether or not banks have always had the authority to custody crypto for their customers
● how he expects things to unfold in the coming years as banks begin to become more involved in crypto custody
● his thoughts on Kraken and others launching crypto banks and whether it will lead to the founding of other crypto banks
● how his office is pushing for a national fintech charter, and how it could affect less crypto-friendly states
● whether banks that work with crypto companies supporting unhosted wallets are prohibited from holding stablecoin reserves
● whether or not OCC regulations cover DeFi, and the regulatory challenges that open source protocols present
● whether he sees a time when governments and regulators participate in the governance of crypto platforms
● what roles he thinks public and private sectors, as well as commercial banks, should play in the creation of a central bank digital currency
● what stance the OCC might take around privacy in blockchain transactions
● how U.S. regulators can offer more clarity to the crypto industry
● and how he thinks the pandemic, its effect on the economy, and the government’s response through stimulus will affect the crypto industry

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3DW7Q-4e5n0 Acting Comptroller of the Currency Brian Brooks on Crypto Banks

+1 WOsMerit

a well spoken man trying to answer some hard questions   had a good vibe i thought..will be watching more closely

the mention of a strategic view point by state actors in the cryptospace perked my ears up

it was all interesting..great interview

[Toxic2040]

#dyor

before closing monthly chart with some thoughts




after close




daily chart



perspective


#stronghands


Happy Halloween!

[cAPSLOCK]

Weird selloff with no volume = weird selloff with no volume.

Very kookoo...

Shake Shake Shake....  Shake Shake Shake...

Shakin' the tree, but no coins falling out.  What comes next?

Who knows?

[JimboToronto]

Shake Shake Shake....  Shake Shake Shake...
...What comes next?

Sheik Yerbouti?

[cAPSLOCK]

Just a PSA.  I think it is apropos.

If you have balances of BTC anywhere other than addresses derived from private keys you hold now might be a very good time to drop those coins into your self custody. (or arguably next week if you want to wait for the difficulty adjustment to kick in)  Of course we are the choir as far as the hymn "NYK-NYC".  But I know many of us are traders, or have the random balance here or there...

Here is why:

1.  Some third parties are still paying the network fees for you.  Notably CashApp.  This is actually the only place I hold a little BTC that is not in my control.  That's where I buy dips.  And it's not so much that I am super worried.  But I pulled my daily limit off today and will continue till it's drained.  It's nice to see they are batching.  And man.. in my transaction there were over 50 payments made.  They are doing some REAL business it seems.

2.  The more I think about the Iran news the more it makes me think I just want to tie up all the loose ends like that.  That news is going to do all kinds of crazy stuff.  It is arguably the beginning of Central Bank FOMO.  Just that alone means you might want to get your house in order, so to speak.  As the network could be headed towards becoming fairly expensive to transact on.

And obviously there is also the possibility that western governments decide to take extreme actions.  I know it's paranoid, but seriously... what is left to surprise us anymore?  It's probably a tiny chance, but if your government orders exchanges to freeze funds etc, or even seize balances...

Also if you are running a lightning node...  Now (or next week?) would be the time to think about cleaning up and small money in little dead end channels with small balances, Or channels that seem to be with an unreliable peer.  Depending on chain fees you could effectively lose sats tied up in crummy channels...

Anyway. some food for thought.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gUhRKVIjJtw

[Biodom]

It's good to mine right now although probably much less profitable than in late 2017 as @philipma1957 has shown.
With fees being above 300 sat/byte and China shutting their 'rain miners' down you are basically buying bitcoin at a nice discount or simply buying bitcoin slowly it you choose to pay fiat for electricity.

[JayJuanGee]

So far I was able to send tx only when I wanted for, at most 30c (7-8sats/byte) or so.
However, soon I would have to send a payment and if it is $15 (as it is currently projected), it would be somewhat annoying.
Now, picture the "enthusiasm" at 30K btc and imagine a fee then.
I am somewhat bewildered that almost nothing was done to alleviate this in 2017-2020 except a slow LN rollout.
It is entirely possible that paying with "onchain" btc will soon be a fools errand (for $100 size tx).
Maybe this is what Paypal aims at.
One component is missing, though, which is the ability to "fund' your paypal account with pre-existing btc.
I am not sure what I will use in the future, LN, paypal, Strike, etc, but i sure as heck would not be paying $15/tx, hopefully, unless btc moves into "state savings" domain and is at $1mil/btc or above.

if the 30K BTC is a single input. No difference to 0.3BTC on a single input. fees will be the same...

Sucks LN isn't making a bigger impact that we had hoped for. Can already hear the big block supporters in the background!

Side Note: 127,668 unconfirmed transactions

Maybe it is time to fire up the S13 again!

This is kind of obvious...
My point was not a number of bytes, but the "enthusiam" that would be there at 30K and above.
If 100mil people will try to squeeze their tx into available blocks, fees might go even higher.
Say, at $1000/tx only Saylor size tx are reasonable.

To commemorate Saylor's tx size, maybe we should get a 1Sr (or Say) at 17.5K btc, then 1millisay=17.5btc, 1 microsay=0.0175btc (currently worthabout $241), 1nanoSay=0.0000175 btc (currently a quarter worth). Or, perhaps make nanoSay or 10 nanoSay a Say (basic unit), currently worth either 0.25 or 2.5.
Then, pay with Says instead of small fractions of btc or large number (currently) of sats.

you are coming off as overly pessimistic of the likely direction of fees, Biodom, and you are seemingly bitter about rich peeps, such as Saylor coming into bitcoin as a newbie (and maybe Saylor is revered too much, too, from your perspective?) and hoarding block space (hoarding a sizeable stake in bitcoin without serving time or suffering like many of us long term HODLers)..

I cannot really disagree with anything you said here, cAPSLOCK - even though you seem to be giving arguably positive press to scammer/shitcoiners

Hey... I'm just stating facts.  Any interpretive bias you sense is coming from your own selfie.

I don'tknow the future... but we all will once it's here.  Easy peasy.

Could be, but I am sticking with my original observation.  

All 2020 I was trying to maximize my fiat returns so i don't have to sell btc at the next peak (2021-2022).
The results are mostly OK so far, giving myself a nicer volatility cushion.
Will sell btc at some ridiculously high number (for this stage, such as 350-500K) in 2021-22, but probably not at 55K.

Here is a tease: got an alt that outperformed btc by 1000% or even more since Oct 2017 (till now).
What is that mystery alt? BTW, there was another with the same stats few mo ago- 100% sold that one already.
Shitcoins can "work" if you don't hold them very long term. An intermediate hold-6-18 mo (or even few years) can work in your favor.
Woonomic calls them "oscillators", which is very accurate.

I sincerely hope that @JJG would not have a spike in his/hers blood pressure while putting down such "revelations".
Take it easy, it's just numbers, everything will go back to btc...soon, but not yet.

Your choice to be a shitcoiner.. and your choice to want to lure others into such practices through posts within this here thread.       

[Biodom]

So far I was able to send tx only when I wanted for, at most 30c (7-8sats/byte) or so.
However, soon I would have to send a payment and if it is $15 (as it is currently projected), it would be somewhat annoying.
Now, picture the "enthusiasm" at 30K btc and imagine a fee then.
I am somewhat bewildered that almost nothing was done to alleviate this in 2017-2020 except a slow LN rollout.
It is entirely possible that paying with "onchain" btc will soon be a fools errand (for $100 size tx).
Maybe this is what Paypal aims at.
One component is missing, though, which is the ability to "fund' your paypal account with pre-existing btc.
I am not sure what I will use in the future, LN, paypal, Strike, etc, but i sure as heck would not be paying $15/tx, hopefully, unless btc moves into "state savings" domain and is at $1mil/btc or above.

if the 30K BTC is a single input. No difference to 0.3BTC on a single input. fees will be the same...

Sucks LN isn't making a bigger impact that we had hoped for. Can already hear the big block supporters in the background!

Side Note: 127,668 unconfirmed transactions

Maybe it is time to fire up the S13 again!

This is kind of obvious...
My point was not a number of bytes, but the "enthusiam" that would be there at 30K and above.
If 100mil people will try to squeeze their tx into available blocks, fees might go even higher.
Say, at $1000/tx only Saylor size tx are reasonable.

To commemorate Saylor's tx size, maybe we should get a 1Sr (or Say) at 17.5K btc, then 1millisay=17.5btc, 1 microsay=0.0175btc (currently worthabout $241), 1nanoSay=0.0000175 btc (currently a quarter worth). Or, perhaps make nanoSay or 10 nanoSay a Say (basic unit), currently worth either 0.25 or 2.5.
Then, pay with Says instead of small fractions of btc or large number (currently) of sats.

you are coming off as overly pessimistic of the likely direction of fees, Biodom, and you are seemingly bitter about rich peeps, such as Saylor coming into bitcoin as a newbie (and maybe Saylor is revered too much, too, from your perspective?) and hoarding block space (hoarding a sizeable stake in bitcoin without serving time or suffering like many of us long term HODLers)..

I cannot really disagree with anything you said here, cAPSLOCK - even though you seem to be giving arguably positive press to scammer/shitcoiners

Hey... I'm just stating facts.  Any interpretive bias you sense is coming from your own selfie.

I don'tknow the future... but we all will once it's here.  Easy peasy.

Could be, but I am sticking with my original observation.   

You are implying something that is not there.
First off, he is not hoarding any blocks and second, he already had that 425mil cash in the company and at least 170 mil of his own, so gains are not that impressive yet.
If btc goes to 10mil and he would have 175 bil in btc and his company another 380 bil in btc, MSTR would still be smaller than APPL, FB, MSFT, GOOG and a few other companies.
Right now he does sound a bit strict, as a recent convert would sound. Perhaps, he would mellow a bit later, but I am totally fine so far even with a current situation.
I just hope that when btc drops 40%, he would not start running around telling everyone what kind of 'shit' it is (in his new-new opinion).
He strikes me as a person of 'extremes'-black and white, but perhaps, this helped him to make a lot of money in the last 8-10 years when he claims to invest a lot into FB, GOOGL, AAPL and AMZN because it occurred to him that these companies would disrupt each and every category they participate in.

[Biodom]

All 2020 I was trying to maximize my fiat returns so i don't have to sell btc at the next peak (2021-2022).
The results are mostly OK so far, giving myself a nicer volatility cushion.
Will sell btc at some ridiculously high number (for this stage, such as 350-500K) in 2021-22, but probably not at 55K.

Here is a tease: got an alt that outperformed btc by 1000% or even more since Oct 2017 (till now).
What is that mystery alt? BTW, there was another with the same stats few mo ago- 100% sold that one already.
Shitcoins can "work" if you don't hold them very long term. An intermediate hold-6-18 mo (or even few years) can work in your favor.
Woonomic calls them "oscillators", which is very accurate.

I sincerely hope that @JJG would not have a spike in his/hers blood pressure while putting down such "revelations".
Take it easy, it's just numbers, everything will go back to btc...soon, but not yet.

Your choice to be a shitcoiner.. and your choice to want to lure others into such practices through posts within this here thread.      

I think that a bitcoiner who keeps measuring success in $$ received once bitcoin is sold is a "shitcoiner" too by your own definition.
ha ha

I cannot lure anyone into anything, just sharing...to each his own.
I think you know this practice (of sharing) quite well.

[JayJuanGee]

Good lord, the 2016 2017 energy is SOOO strong.  You gents remember this?

Making another run at it.

Those days definitely felt great. I was going through a particularly bad breakup with a business partner at the time and it got VERY messy but BTC doing it's thing kept me sane and gave me a nice little financial padding to navigate though uncertain times. I only sold a fraction of my stash but boy am I glad it was there for me.

Let's hope this is only the start of things to come. Tell ya what lads, I see people here talking of retirement and the like and while I might not be whales like some of you (I haven't done too badly) I don't begrudge you at all. Happy for every single one of you because I know one day and one day soon I'll get there too.

Enjoy it fellas, it's well deserved!

Wouldn't a more important question be about whether we are able to retire earlier than what we would have otherwise?

There is a bit of a factor of age that does allow less enjoyment - and at the same time if you are in your 30s or 40s, it might be difficult to pull any kind of early retirement without having greater cushion - some folks who are getting into their 60s might become eligible to draw into supplemental sources of income, too... so there are all of those angles.

All 2020 I was trying to maximize my fiat returns so i don't have to sell btc at the next peak (2021-2022).
The results are mostly OK so far, giving myself a nicer volatility cushion.
Will sell btc at some ridiculously high number (for this stage, such as 350-500K) in 2021-22, but probably not at 55K.

Here is a tease: got an alt that outperformed btc by 1000% or even more since Oct 2017 (till now).
What is that mystery alt? BTW, there was another with the same stats few mo ago- 100% sold that one already.
Shitcoins can "work" if you don't hold them very long term. An intermediate hold-6-18 mo (or even few years) can work in your favor.
Woonomic calls them "oscillators", which is very accurate.

I sincerely hope that @JJG would not have a spike in his/hers blood pressure while putting down such "revelations".
Take it easy, it's just numbers, everything will go back to btc...soon, but not yet.

Your choice to be a shitcoiner.. and your choice to want to lure others into such practices through posts within this here thread.      

I think that bitcoiner who keep measuring success in $$ received once bitcoin is sold is a "shitcoiner" too by your own definition.
ha ha

Hm?  you are itching for a fight, aren't you?     (maybe you are getting a little bored with so much BTC UPpity in recent months?  Gosh zooming out a bit.. it is starting to almost look like a straight line up since March 21, 2020... even though I do remember having a few decent sized corrections in there and even flats.. but NOT really feeling like much of any flat or down correction when looking at that period.. a little here and there, but geez)       

Seems like I posted on this topic, previously.... and there are surely a lot of ways to both measure your wealth and to talk about your wealth and your various allocation and reallocation strategies.

It seems that my talking about my tactics does cause me to reframe my way of thinking about these matters from time to time... take, for example, my recent adoption of the 200-week moving average as a way of measuring downside volatility likelihood.  I likely adopted that within the past 6-9 months, and then my recent conversion from using the 200-week moving average to using the 208-week moving average was only accomplished in the past month or so.

We are NOT all going to frame these kinds of measuring matters in the same way, and hopefully we are able to learn from one another... I do, however, believe that it is not good to be playing with slippery slope topics of talking up the dabbling in shitcoins in this thread - even if there are reasonable ways to cause such shitcoinery to be profitable.. it is just bad taste and disrespectful to the topic of this thread.. Sure, you can push it and probably no one is going to do anything about it, except for call you a shitcoiner.. but hey.. you can do what you want.. you been around these parts for long enough.. and you have not been shy about expressing your opinions on a regular basis.. and probably I agree with you quite a large bit of the time... not that I hav any kind of exact calculation for that but it is likely a bit over 50% of  the time.. Hate to admit it.... go figure?  

[Biodom]

Good lord, the 2016 2017 energy is SOOO strong.  You gents remember this?

Making another run at it.

Those days definitely felt great. I was going through a particularly bad breakup with a business partner at the time and it got VERY messy but BTC doing it's thing kept me sane and gave me a nice little financial padding to navigate though uncertain times. I only sold a fraction of my stash but boy am I glad it was there for me.

Let's hope this is only the start of things to come. Tell ya what lads, I see people here talking of retirement and the like and while I might not be whales like some of you (I haven't done too badly) I don't begrudge you at all. Happy for every single one of you because I know one day and one day soon I'll get there too.

Enjoy it fellas, it's well deserved!

Wouldn't a more important question be about whether we are able to retire earlier than what we would have otherwise?

There is a bit of a factor of age that does allow less enjoyment - and at the same time if you are in your 30s or 40s, it might be difficult to pull any kind of early retirement without having greater cushion - some folks who are getting into their 60s might become eligible to draw into supplemental sources of income, too... so there are all of those angles.

All 2020 I was trying to maximize my fiat returns so i don't have to sell btc at the next peak (2021-2022).
The results are mostly OK so far, giving myself a nicer volatility cushion.
Will sell btc at some ridiculously high number (for this stage, such as 350-500K) in 2021-22, but probably not at 55K.

Here is a tease: got an alt that outperformed btc by 1000% or even more since Oct 2017 (till now).
What is that mystery alt? BTW, there was another with the same stats few mo ago- 100% sold that one already.
Shitcoins can "work" if you don't hold them very long term. An intermediate hold-6-18 mo (or even few years) can work in your favor.
Woonomic calls them "oscillators", which is very accurate.

I sincerely hope that @JJG would not have a spike in his/hers blood pressure while putting down such "revelations".
Take it easy, it's just numbers, everything will go back to btc...soon, but not yet.

Your choice to be a shitcoiner.. and your choice to want to lure others into such practices through posts within this here thread.      

I think that bitcoiner who keep measuring success in $$ received once bitcoin is sold is a "shitcoiner" too by your own definition.
ha ha

Hm?  you are itching for a fight, aren't you?    

Seems like I posted on this topic, previously.... and there are surely a lot of ways to both measure your wealth and to talk about your wealth and your various allocation and reallocation strategies.

It seems that my talking about my tactics does cause me to reframe my way of thinking about these matters from time to time... take, for example, my recent adoption of the 200 week moving average as a way of measuring downside volatility likelihood.  I likely adopted that within the past 6-9 months, and then my recent conversion from using the 200 week moving average to using the 208 week moving average was only accomplished in the past month or so.

We are NOT all going to frame these kinds of measuring matters in the same way, and hopefully we are able to learn from one another... I do, however, believe that it is not good to be playing with slippery slope topics of talking up the dabbling in shitcoins in this thread - even if there are reasonable ways to cause such shitcoinery to be profitable.. it is just bad taste and disrespectful to the topic of this thread.. Sure, you can push it and probably no one is going to do anything about it, except for call you a shitcoiner.. but hey.. you can do what you want.. you been around these parts for long enough.. and you have not been shy about expressing your opinions on a regular basis.. and probably I agree with you quite a large bit of the time... not that I hav any kind of exact calculation for that but it is likely a bit over 50% of  the time.. Hate to admit it.... go figure?  

Cool, but maybe consider a philosophy of keeping bitcoin until bitcoin 'eats the world', then simpy use it.
Selling btc for fiat seems suboptimal right now.
My strategy now is to maximize bitcoin holdings, exactly a la Saylor, while paying little attention to the accumulation of anything else (as a final goal).
Other tools, such as fiat stock gains, altcoin gains (bought always via fiat) are there to increase btc, while your ultimate goal seems to increase fiat holdings (via bitcoin).
Am I wrong?
...yes, a little bored (and overworked), I concede there.

[VB1001]

https://twitter.com/BitcoinMemeHub/status/1322460964051161088

Tonight I'm going to sell my soul to the witch.
I wish you all a happy Halloween night.
Take care

Grossly photoshopped.

On Halloween night everything is photoshop

Good morning WO

[FIFA worldcup]