You can go back historically and look at what would have happened if you had invested a set amount; however, the dcabtc website only allows you to go back 9 years - but still shows stupendous profits for that period in BTC.. especially compared with other investments such as gold and stocks.

I don't know about that.  Sure, I am a bit more averse to down predictions than UP predictions, and I am a bit hostile towards placing too high of probabilities on any calls, either direction.. so there is that angle too...

I think that I am more than fair to attempting to follow your analysis and even to give some benefit of the doubt along the way, too.

Furthermore, I believe that largely I tend to give valid reasons for my ongoing posts on the topic, including my giving you push back about some of your bearish tendencies... which is that some no coiners and/or fence sitters are persuaded by such nonsense in that they might fail to adequately prepare for UPpity because they are too busy trying to get a better BTC price, that may well not end up happening.

So, this is not about uie pooie, exstasie, but instead about peeps that might give more credit to your predictions than they deserve... when they are likely to be way the hell safer to make sure that they are adequately prepared for UPpity before they start trying to time the market with hopes of a few more percentages down, here and there along the way.


We agree on that part.


Some supposed long term bulls can be quite full of shit, sometimes..... .. with the "I'm long-term bullish but short-term bearish," bullshit.


Sure, there is that angle, as well.

Many of us invest into bitcoin in order to get excited when it goes up in price.

NOT sure why anyone should not be willing to engage in some celebrations in that UPpity direction, when it happens...

I am surely NOT the kind of person who takes UPpity for granted, but I sure experience a certain amount of pleasures (and tinglies) from witnessing some bears, or sideways/down betters getting reckt along our way UPpity.  That brings me some satisfaction to witness bears, fence-sitters, bitcoin naysayers, alt coin pumpeners and no coiners running after the train after they have gotten reckt from failing and refusing to adequately pee pare their lil selfies for UPpity... (of course, I don't get those kinds of gloating satisfactions for the more innocent newbie types who get mislead into waiting for down and failing to pee pare for UPpity).

I just noticed the article that you had linked, blueimp.  Thanks for that.

We seem to be getting some actual action going on in this matter, and surely it seems strange to be suggesting that anyone who might have been operating an exchange would have also had time to get involved in bullshit randsomeware nonsense - so in that sense, charges seem a bit trumped up... however, there could be more validity to arguments that he knew about illegal activities that were being channeled through his exchange.

I did I quick google search of Vinnik's name in the news and the latest article that I found was from 3 days ago...

https://martinsvillebulletin.com/news/world/trial-of-russian-in-alleged-bitcoin-fraud-to-wrap-in-paris/article_be31eaa4-9fbe-5693-92ef-8b42c7a82ca8.html

One angle that seems to be even cooler is that our BTC price peak that went to $13,880 on June 26, 2019 had only caused a weighted-average price peak of $12,723 - so this particular price rise has achieved higher weighted average BTC prices and even last 5 days that have beaten that June 26, 2019 peak price.

Surely, I do not want to jinx anything - even though we seem to be achieving very good numbers in recent days, even though a lot of chartalists might have gotten caught on giving significance to that $13,880 number that has significantly and materially already been surpassed based on the quantity and price levels of the coins traded over the past 5 days and seemingly ongoing (unless I happen to jinx it, which anything is possible, I suppose).   

I am having some difficulties being pessimistic about BTC price movements in recent months. 

More specifically, on a personal level, in nearly the past two months (since September 3), I have only had one BTC buy order execute, and I have had around 10 BTC sell orders execute... which means that the BTC price has mostly been going nonstop UPpity during that time. 

Sure, Bitcoin prices do not tend to go straight up, except during extremely bullish periods.. yet from looking at my own books, we seem to largely be experiencing a decent amount of largely straight UPpity BTC price actions with hardly any meaningful and/or significant price corrections along the way...

I am surely ONLY making an observation, and I am NOT complaining because as many of the regular folks in this here WO thread likely realize I set my BTC orders in such a way that causes me to hardly give any shits about which direction BTC prices head in the shorter term (months or a few years), so long as they largely go UPpity in the longer term (like 4-8 years or even more)... which seems to be what has been happening with our lillie fiend, aka dee bitcoins...

Even looking at the shorter term, we seem to be experiencing ongoing bullish as fuck BTC price actions, so I hardly see any reason to be concerned about if we might hav some we lil blip along the way, here and there, which surely should be reasonably expected to happen, from time to time in bitcoinlandia.

Even if we were to experience some kind of BIG ass correction (and test) down to $10k-ish..., that does not seem unreasonable and sometimes happens in bitcoinlandia... not sure if we can write off 4 digits forever, but surly NOT out of the question that we might be getting close to being able to engage in such writing off of 4 digits, too.. ... hahahahahahaa   

I, personally, am interested to see what happens when we get close to testing our quasi-local top (from late June 2019) of $13,880... we going to get above such price range?  or hang out in that area or lower for some amount of time?

For what period are you suggesting that BTC prices are going to be around $20k to $22k, cosmicbtc?

Do you realize that tentatively (and presumably) BTC prices in the $17,250 to $23,500-ish arena is a kind of deadman's zone in BTC prices.. so it remains as not very likely to be accurate to be discussing in any kind of detail anything that might take place in such price zone - especially, since we are NOT likely to be there for very long, relatively speaking.

Of course, in any system, quirks can happen, so I am not saying that hanging out in the deadman's zone for a relatively longer period is not going to happen, and in that regard, we could end up hanging out in such deadman's zone for longer than anticipated, but still, at this time, does not seem to be reality-based to be emphasizing any kinds of bitcoin-related things that may or may not happen within such deadman's zone.

Don't u know nuttin, cosmicbtc?

Oh?  I forgot, u b a newbie.. that may 'splain some of dees lack of focusening matters.


 


Hopefully, he will live long enough for you to be able to tell him:  "I told you so."  At current prices (near $13k), you would need around 77 coins..., but if prices go to $100k, then you would only need 10 coins.... So I am not sure if 10 coins are in your reach or if you are going to need BTC prices to go higher before you are able to wag your pointing finger at pops.

I agree that such "funny thought" is worth exploring since the power of exponential value growth can frequently be under-appreciated - including that when the BTC price is wildly appreciating, there has sometimes been a kind of throwing around of value in crazy ways, that would cause the losing of money in regular scenarios, but when the BTC price is rising like crazy, some folks might lose or throw away 50% of their stash, but still end up being stupendously profitable. 

Take the period of late 2016 to late 2017, there was a BTC price appreciation of more than 28x from $700-ish to $20k-ish, and buying 20BTC at the start would have cost around $14k, but would have been worth around $400k at the peak... so there may have been ways to fuck up the HODLing and trading of BTC for shitcoins and still come out ahead and even gotten more than your $14k back at or near the BTC price peak.   

In other words, nearly everyone becomes a genius by following some of the more basic principles of buying low and selling high, and also NOT doing the opposite of buying high and selling low.... , which second scenario ended up being some variation of how mindrust's situation played out... which is a sympathetic situation to the extent that he was a real person rather than a troll or a fake - and I do tend to believe that he was a real person... so I continue to have sympathies for his situation, even though it remains a good illustration regarding a kind of value of NOT panicking and NOT losing faith in the BTC.

I am pretty happy with how the whole situation has been working out, and really my income in late 2013 and thereafter had largely been reduced too, so really, I had not anticipated any major increases in networth after that time.



It does NOT seem to be as accurate to measure ONLY what is happening with bitcoin without attempting to take an overall picture of your situation.... that was what I thought was being attempted by lightfoot and replicated by me.

Given bitcoin's actual price performance in those two 4-year periods, getting about 10x on bitcoin and another 10x does not seem implausible or unreasonable - even if you seem to be "coincidentally" coming out with seemingly quite rounded numbers for both of those time frames.

Even though I may be getting ahead in responding to aspects of your post, I would like to point out that figuring out BTC holdings or even overall networth holdings on any particular date can be a complicated matter in itself, and perhaps one of the reasons that some folks may only be inclined to entertain such questions on an annual basis (around tax season), but I have been attempting to maintain an ability to assess these matters and changes in these matters on a monthly basis, and for sure, from time to time, I have ended up having to go back and to revise numbers based on new data or even new ways of categorizing some of the data.

So, my numbers come from an end of October 2016 and end of October 2020 (almost there) assessment, and in 2016, the bitcoin proportion of my overall networth was about 21.3% of my overall networth, and in 2020, my bitcoin proportion of my overall networth is around 75% of my overall networth. My networth charts do NOT show the actual bitcoin price at the time that the value is locked in, but I believe that I had used $700 per BTC in 2016, and so far I have been using $12,900 as my 2020 calculations.

I look at and compare the various numbers, and really I had come to the conclusion that if I had not come across bitcoin, and I had largely continued with my previous investment patterns, my various other investment would have largely remained flat in value - which they have done when I remove bitcoin from the calculations.

Another point is that I find it completely crazy and unreasonable for the vast majority of normies to be transitioning into some kind of high allocation of bitcoin that approaches anywhere close to 100%, and even allocating more than 10% to 20% is going to be unreasonable for a lot of normies.  In my case, specifically, even before I got into bitcoin (before late 2013), I had largely figured out a way that I was going to be able to sustain myself for the rest of my life with a meaningful amount of comfort, even without having had come across the additional returns of bitcoin.  Sure, bitcoin has added a lot of icing on that cake, but even if bitcoin goes completely to zero I have that other value - and of course, I will acknowledge that we have found the precariousness of even traditional investments, too... so sure there is a bit of presumption, in any way of projecting upon how solid of a ground any of these matters happen to be - besides investing in guns and ammo.  

I suppose that part of my point in criticizing the "invest everything in bitcoin" evangelists, is that it seems to me that bitcoin remains such an asymmetric bet that many folks have chances to become rich as fuck without going "all in."  Folks can engage in reasonable ongoing investment into bitcoin (perhaps aggressive can help to accelerate the getting rich matter a wee bit) and become rich as fuck with the passage of time.  Of course, starting out with a 4 year investment timeline is a good minimum starting point, but it seems more reasonable to approach the matter with a 10-20 year investment timeline, and even though regular normies have historically needed to invest 30 to 40 years, bitcoin seems to provide a potential of short-cutting that timeline - even though there are no guarantees of getting rich quick - and it seems quite imprudent, from my perspective, to be presuming that bitcoin is going to get you rich.. and there is some prudence to having some kind of a balanced approach in the way that value in invested and built... even if some folks are going to choose much more aggressive approaches to bitcoin than what I would recommend.



Many times we can learn from mistakes, but we don't necessarily always learn because sometimes there are personal inclinations that cause many peeps to repeat behaviors (such as gambling), even if they have gotten burned by such behaviors.  I am surely not immuned from such behaviors, and I have several of my own examples of mistakes that were made at various points along the way.


Cannot stop people from engaging in some risk.. and usually recommending a strategy would involve some aspect of considering the extent to which a person might be able to make up for losses, if the risky strategy ends in losses.

Of course, the more richie we become, the more we should be concerned about engaging in some degree of wealth preservation.  If we do not have much wealth to preserve, then sometimes we might consider that we do not hav much to lose, either, so we might be more willing to risk what we have in those kinds of circumstances.. so sometimes those kinds of strategies can pay off, as your experience seems to demonstrate.



I disagree.  I believe that you can invest incrementally, even though there may be some advantages to front loading your investment into BTC in a heavier way, as you suggest.



Of course, all of those are possible and even reasonable assessments of probability - with some uncertainties in regards to the timeline, yet I still conclude that it would be unreasonable and imprudent to approach your own investment strategy as if those various scenarios were guaranteed.


I am not disagreeing with you.


Yes, such a thing is possible.






Well, we are probably on a similar page in the assessment of these last points.  In other words, we do not likely need to have Armageddon, hyperinflation or some weird-ass scenarios for bitcoin to reach $1 million or even $10 million.  You are preaching to the choir when you address that angle.

Yep...

surely difficult to make up for those kinds of sales.

You did much better than mindrust, especially since you sold less than 15% of your stash and you were able to bring that back to less than 10% of your stash.. and think about mindrust selling 100% of his stash, and maybe he bought back 10%.. maybe?  And if so, at a pretty BIG loss, no?  And, the BIGGER loss for mindrust was failing to buy back and to suck up some of the losses.

Each of us should attempt to learn from these kinds of circumstances  in order to be careful in how we manage our portfolios while attempting to preserve principle and NOT getting too aggressive in our approach to such matter(s).


I agree that it tends to be a bit more prudent to shave a bit off along the way up, and the amount of the shavings and the locations for the shavings will likely vary from person to person and also depending on context...

Regarding $18k?  I am not sure if that would be a prudent location to make any shavings.. even though I have been ready, willing and able to shave a bit off all the way since $250 (in late 2015) to present prices.. but that is me... and my situation is different, in part because of the way that I structured my situation from the start.. which was a creation of bitcoin surplus by causing actual physical bitcoin surplus which also created a kind of psychological feeling of bitcoin surplus, too that really then allows for such ongoing shavenings without worrying about engaging in such ongoing shavenings.


Yes..... consider this, too.  times have changed.   

 

Yes... this will be tried and may even have some success; however, one of the powers of bitcoin remains the ability to demand and to obtain direct possession without hardly any of the encumbrances of physicality.

It will take some time for the power of direct possession to be exercised with meaningful and measurable success, even while it remains ongoingly powerful underlying bitcoin dynamic  - and even while some folks enter into 3rd party contracts that undermine such power dynamics.. the power dynamics are still there.. ready to be realized by those willing to realize such power.



I don't know why we would give any shits about the performance of some amorphous term, such as crypto in this here bitcoin thread...

What the fuck does that have to do with bitcoin, exactly?  Can you (yslyv) at least delineate bitcoin from within that vague/amorphous "crypto" concept?.. compare, contrast, something that involves bitcoin..? and real bitcoin.. that is..



Interesting, Paashaas.

More or less a doubling of value, every four years...

Interestanting!!

 

From your inspiration, I did a quickie assessment of my own situation (using October of each of the years as the measurement point), yet I would not attribute changes in my networth to politics... and I am a bit surprised to look at the numbers, but I think that the last portion of my great luck seems to have been largely attributable to my late 2013 decision to add bitcoin to my invests and to persist with investing in BTC during the past 4 years.  If I were to remove BTC from the assessment and hypothesize having had investing in some other asset class, then 2016 would likely have had looked the same/similar, but 2016 to 2020 would have likely have had been way more flat.

2004 - baseline
2008 - 285% increase
2012 - 301% increase
2016 - 161% increase
2020 - 320% increase

I will concede that the last 16-20 years of my life have been investment portfolio building/appreciation years.. which I would never have had imagined such great overall performance.. seems to have been some luck in there, too.. especially the last 4 years.. as I tried to say above..

Seems that you have NOT been tuning into the WO frequently enough, PoolMinor.  In essence, Searing has always been a glass half full kind of guy who has been more than willing to spout out pessimistic views while apparently mostly HODLing through the vast majority of it, while complaining the whole time.

There are worse kinds of bear/bulls or whatever might be the proper label for such a HODLer, as the constantly fearing Searing.   

You already knew that something like this was quite probable to happen, so seems that you already accounted for that - right? 

You can ONLY do as much as you are able to do... I recall a period in which my cashflow was very tight for a very long time, and I really could not take advantage of accumulating or diversifying because I hardly had anything to work with... so what can you do?  We make choices based on the cards that we are dealt - and we can sometimes make adjustments to hope to improve our position - but it is not always possible to be even in a position to win the lottery.. not that I am suggesting that buying any lottery ticket is even a prudent use of capital.

I have still only read the first page of responses in this thread, and from your response to my post, I realize that I engaged in a bit of a presumption that some dickering around of account values might be reasonable in terms of considering potential future BTC price movements, and many of us longer term BTC HODLers realize that there are some problematic aspects in changing allocations based on anticipated future value (aka possible future BTC price movements) - which your post highlighted the weighing of some of the considerations that would be involved to move in and out of positions rather than attempting to maintain a more steady position.

By the way, I was presuming a bit of a range for your possible account value fluctuations, and really, if your account is anywhere in the area of $200 to $5k in the next year and a half or so, there might not be any great attention that would come from the IRS, unless they are adding up other areas in which accounts and BTC activities are adding up that go beyond reasonable assessments of BTC related activities..  Of course, these areas remain in flux, so individuals are likely to come to varying conclusions regarding how much reporting is reasonable and practical - especially related to potential micro-transactions.  I am NOT sure the extent to which your age matters, but of course, I get your point that if you have already built up systems that largely already account for your various BTC transactions in relatively comprehensive ways, why would you NOT just fold your PP related BTC activities into systems that you have already established - even though others might come to differing assessments regarding prudence and practicalities in that direction.

Just off the top, it seems quite clear that you should be able to gain exposure to BTC volatility by holding some or all of your paypal account value in BTC.

Let's say that historically, you have a floating paypal balance that bounces around between $200 and $5,000.  If you choose to allocate a certain percentage to BTC (whether 5%, 25%, 50%, 90% or some variating percentages that is based on other factors chosen by you), then you could potentially monitor the extent to which there might be advantages/disadvantages in holding some portion of your account value in BTC rather than dollars.

Of course, during high BTC UPpity volatility there should be greater benefits to hold larger portions of your account value in BTC rather than dollars, and opposingly, during high DOWNity BTC volatility, there should be greater benefits of holding larger portions of your account value in dollars rather than BTC.


That does seem to be one of the BIG questions concerning if there happens to be any value in holding some or all of your account value in BTC rather than sticking with dollars ONLY?

Jbreher has been missed.

He must be busy setting his BSV buy orders (or would it be sell orders? since his buy orders would be executing with ongoing droppenings of such prized project that should be flippening bitcoin any moment, once it can get out of the lower .013xx / upper .012xx doldrums).  



Sure, remember $13,880 is our high from late June 2019 - so there will be some interest regarding how strong such previous resistance point might still be.

I am not proclaiming anything.. beyond merely feeling good about the decent probability that it may well be challenged in the coming days.. and may have decent odds of being broken through.


I am thinking if we are able to meaningfully break above $13,880,. then the next resistance point would be in the $17,250 price arena... that's my tentative thinking (or at least has been my thinking for quite a while - and nothing really seems to be changing such sentiments).

That sideways hedge (just in case not down) didn't age too well...   

did it?

 


Hopefully, some innocent peeps did not fail to buy enough BTC... in order to prepare their lil selfies for UPpity.... or sell too many BTC too soon under a believe that they might be able to get more coyns upon down (or alternatively sideways, which seemed NOT to quite happen as expected)...

Of course, it is interesting to look at coin market cap for shits adn giggles from time to time, but it is not a very meaningful measurement in terms of trying to figure out whether bitcoin is valuable or the extent to which bitcoin is valuable.. so some people get deceived by their looking at the shadows on the wall of the coinmarket cap cave and  into failing to buy bitcoin a meaningful amount of bitcoin, waiting to buy bitcoin or selling too many bitcoins too soon because they use coinmarket cap as if it were some kind of meaningful indicator of bitcoin value compared to more than 7k shitcoins.


I must have missed that....  

especially since king daddy was never coupled...  


go figure?



 




 

Edit:  I realize that the above chart compares bitcoin to gold and equities and also included ETH in there, too...   My above comment was mostly aimed at the gold and equities correlation nonsense which has largely been whimsically spouted out since about March of this year - and of course, having parallels short-term spouting events in various parts of bitcoin's history, too.. especially if bitcoin might be in a short-period of consolidation.. and/or rebalancing...   

Ethereum, on the other hand, is a wee bit of a different story, as an asset class.. because largely ethereum and other shitcoins have been a lot more correlated to bitcoin, and any possibility of their success largely depends upon bitcoin providing them cover.  So the analysis of the correlation, or lack thereof, of ethereum and other shitcoins to bitcoin is somewhat different from such analysis of those more mature assets of gold and stocks.

I am glad that you have assessed that you have learned from this process and that you believe engaging in such process has likely caused you to sell less BTC overall than what you would have without such strategy.

Still sounds that you structured such overall strategy in a way that was overly emphasizing betting on down and also in that regard selling too much, too soon BTC on the way up..

But, hey, if in the end you learned from the whole process, that is good, and perhaps you might be able to employ again in the future and/or tweak some more in order to make such process even more valuable to your own particular situation.

Yes!!!   It would be nice to start filling some values in the supra $12k territory.. and surely in the top 50, too...

Yet, we always must wonder a little bit about whether the time has come, yet - or if we need to wait a wee bit longer to experience such filling-in of price slots?