[........ edited out]......
2004 - baseline
2008 - 285% increase
2012 - 301% increase
2016 - 161% increase
2020 - 320% increase
.......
those are solid figures, congrats
I am pretty happy with how the whole situation has been working out, and really my income in late 2013 and thereafter had largely been reduced too, so really, I had not anticipated any major increases in networth after that time.
my case it is an example of an bitcoin-only investment:
invested in btc in 2013.
2013-2016: 1000% increase
2016-2020: 1000% increase
overall it was a 100x on investment via buying and hodling.
It does NOT seem to be as accurate to measure ONLY what is happening with bitcoin without attempting to take an overall picture of your situation.... that was what I thought was being attempted by lightfoot and replicated by me.
Given bitcoin's actual price performance in those two 4-year periods, getting about 10x on bitcoin and another 10x does not seem implausible or unreasonable - even if you seem to be "coincidentally" coming out with seemingly quite rounded numbers for both of those time frames.
Even though I may be getting ahead in responding to aspects of your post, I would like to point out that figuring out BTC holdings or even overall networth holdings on any particular date can be a complicated matter in itself, and perhaps one of the reasons that some folks may only be inclined to entertain such questions on an annual basis (around tax season), but I have been attempting to maintain an ability to assess these matters and changes in these matters on a monthly basis, and for sure, from time to time, I have ended up having to go back and to revise numbers based on new data or even new ways of categorizing some of the data.
So, my numbers come from an end of October 2016 and end of October 2020 (almost there) assessment, and in 2016, the bitcoin proportion of my overall networth was about 21.3% of my overall networth, and in 2020, my bitcoin proportion of my overall networth is around 75% of my overall networth. My networth charts do NOT show the actual bitcoin price at the time that the value is locked in, but I believe that I had used $700 per BTC in 2016, and so far I have been using $12,900 as my 2020 calculations.
I look at and compare the various numbers, and really I had come to the conclusion that if I had not come across bitcoin, and I had largely continued with my previous investment patterns, my various other investment would have largely remained flat in value - which they have done when I remove bitcoin from the calculations.
Another point is that I find it completely crazy and unreasonable for the vast majority of normies to be transitioning into some kind of high allocation of bitcoin that approaches anywhere close to 100%, and even allocating more than 10% to 20% is going to be unreasonable for a lot of normies. In my case, specifically, even before I got into bitcoin (before late 2013), I had largely figured out a way that I was going to be able to sustain myself for the rest of my life with a meaningful amount of comfort, even without having had come across the additional returns of bitcoin. Sure, bitcoin has added a lot of icing on that cake, but even if bitcoin goes completely to zero I have that other value - and of course, I will acknowledge that we have found the precariousness of even traditional investments, too... so sure there is a bit of presumption, in any way of projecting upon how solid of a ground any of these matters happen to be - besides investing in guns and ammo.
I suppose that part of my point in criticizing the "invest everything in bitcoin" evangelists, is that it seems to me that bitcoin remains such an asymmetric bet that many folks have chances to become rich as fuck without going "all in." Folks can engage in reasonable ongoing investment into bitcoin (perhaps aggressive can help to accelerate the getting rich matter a wee bit) and become rich as fuck with the passage of time. Of course, starting out with a 4 year investment timeline is a good minimum starting point, but it seems more reasonable to approach the matter with a 10-20 year investment timeline, and even though regular normies have historically needed to invest 30 to 40 years, bitcoin seems to provide a potential of short-cutting that timeline - even though there are no guarantees of getting rich quick - and it seems quite imprudent, from my perspective, to be presuming that bitcoin is going to get you rich.. and there is some prudence to having some kind of a balanced approach in the way that value in invested and built... even if some folks are going to choose much more aggressive approaches to bitcoin than what I would recommend.
the only other time I tried to invest was me buying internet stocks a few weeks before the Dotcom bubble burst. after a few weeks I had managed to turn €10k in €1k thanks to my immaculate timing.
Many times we can learn from mistakes, but we don't necessarily always learn because sometimes there are personal inclinations that cause many peeps to repeat behaviors (such as gambling), even if they have gotten burned by such behaviors. I am surely not immuned from such behaviors, and I have several of my own examples of mistakes that were made at various points along the way.
bitcoin only investment is putting all eggs in one basket. it was very risky and it felt terrible. I was over invested in bitcoin for 7 years in a row and I had to pay the toll for it. it induced panic selling at the lows, it made my hair turn grey, it caused oh-so-many sleepless nights. the stress this strategy put on me was such a burden that more than once I thought about quitting bitcoin despite the gains. financially this strategy worked very well but I am not sure if I can recommend it.
Cannot stop people from engaging in some risk.. and usually recommending a strategy would involve some aspect of considering the extent to which a person might be able to make up for losses, if the risky strategy ends in losses.
Of course, the more richie we become, the more we should be concerned about engaging in some degree of wealth preservation. If we do not have much wealth to preserve, then sometimes we might consider that we do not hav much to lose, either, so we might be more willing to risk what we have in those kinds of circumstances.. so sometimes those kinds of strategies can pay off, as your experience seems to demonstrate.
if one thinks this might be the only chance of ever escaping the rat-race, this cannot be done without risk. it cannot be done incrementally. you pull the trigger or not.
I disagree. I believe that you can invest incrementally, even though there may be some advantages to front loading your investment into BTC in a heavier way, as you suggest.
will bitcoin do another 10x? I believe so. will it do another 50x? yes, I think it will. will it do another 100x, reaching $1mil per coin? yes, I think it is possible that bitcoin will reach the levels by the end of the decade.
Of course, all of those are possible and even reasonable assessments of probability - with some uncertainties in regards to the timeline, yet I still conclude that it would be unreasonable and imprudent to approach your own investment strategy as if those various scenarios were guaranteed.
a $10k investment in bitcoin today can become $1mil within 10 years.
I am not disagreeing with you.
Yes, such a thing is possible.
to some extend fiat inflation will be the reason for those insane prices. but I refer to "asset-price-inflation", which is already taking place big time and this trend will only accelerate. but I am not talking about a $1mil price for bitcoin in a world where a loaf of bread costs $1000k.
asset price inflation will continue, but $1mil per coin is possible even in a world where the price of bread will have doubled or tripled in the next decade.
Well, we are probably on a similar page in the assessment of these last points. In other words, we do not likely need to have Armageddon, hyperinflation or some weird-ass scenarios for bitcoin to reach $1 million or even $10 million. You are preaching to the choir when you address that angle.
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