The "at that point" remains on a spectrum because there are a certain number of us who have already been cashing out here and there... so passage of time has incrementalisms as well as an all of a sudden components.

If some of us may have some worries about certain changes in liquidation avenues, maybe it does not hurt to be getting in the practice of cashing out here and there along the way, even if smaller amounts.

Practice cashing out and buying back again.  $100 or $1,000 or some practical amount.

We should have some practice with our liquidation avenues, anyhow.

Sure, if we feel that we are mostly in BTC accumulation phase, then we might not be ready to go straight into a liquidation phase, but personally, I believe that bitcoin accumulation becomes a kind of "own it" way of life, so we have to figure out various ways to be comfortable in our Bitcoin skins, and therefore, it seems way more practical to go from accumulation phase to maintenance phase to liquidation phase - and for me, it seems that these phases are on a spectrum rather than being absolute categories.

I had always thought that at least a couple of liquidation avenues should be contemplated to be prepared for just in case some of those avenues might dry up, and sure of course, I am just a regular joe blow, so I am not really in any kind of position to give reassurances that liquidation avenues that you pick might not later end up drying up.  I have already personally had some of my liquidation avenues dry up over the years, so I can even relate to increased levels of worries regarding my remaining liquidation avenues as they currently stand and how they might change (or get reduced) in the future.

So sure, one of the risks, calculations and costs does remain liquidation avenues, and surely the actions against Bitmex likely causes greater liquidation avenues uncertainties rather than inspiring confidence as some other bitcoiners seem to be arguing.



Actually, that plays on another point that I was going to make regarding members being at various points on the spectrum.  Sure there are some members who are full out ready willing and able to engage in liquidations at any time, some members
who are on the cusp of being able to liquidate, and other members who would feel much more comfortable with another BTC price exponential phase.

Those who are NOT quite ready but would be more ready upon another 3x, 5x or 8x might be more anxious...

Some people need 10x or more, and sure there are others who need much more than 20x or even 40x to 100x based on the size of their current BTC holdings and/or what amount of BTC that they might be able to accumulate in the shorter term.



We should not be preparing for an ideal world.

We should be preparing for a variety of possible scenarios and a shifting framework - and maybe even some unexpected happenings along the way.

In other words, even though we are NOT specifically focusing on the best case scenarios or the worst case scenarios, we are prepared for those kinds of extreme and less probable scenarios along with the more probable scenarios that are a mixture of the two.

My thinking is already that bitcoin is way the fuck better along than I had expected it to be when I got in, so the fact that I am likely going to continue to have to juggle a variety of known inconveniences as well as unknown inconveniences does not come as a surprise to me, even though the specifics of the various inconveniences are surely still to be figured out at whatever particular time I am cashing out parts of my BTC or if I were to cash out larger amounts.

Remember that I personally remain with Jimbo in terms of anticipating incrementalism cashing out behaviors from myself rather than expecting that there is going to be some point(s) that I am going to be cashing out BIG ass amounts causing my lil selfie feelings of desperation and/or drawing unwarranted attention to my lil selfie and/or my hypothetical levels of richie-ness.



Sure, the BTC price could go there, and I suppose it would not necessarily be a bad problem to have... but it seems to be on the lower level of probability in the immediate future.

Of course, if BTC prices goes shooting up to $300k in the next 6 months to 1 year, then million dollar bitcoin become more probable upon reaching those kinds of higher prices.  Currently, our high price has merely been $20k.. so it seems to be a bit absurd to be placing too high of probabilities on $1million bitcoins.

Don't get me wrong, I do have projections of my BTC holdings and my cash holdings that go out to a million, but I do not place very high odds on such outcomes in this particular cycle... even though I am prepared for such.

By the way in 2015/2016 (when BTC prices were below $700), my UPpity preparations largely went until about $3k to $5k, and as the BTC price went up, including when we got into the $1ks and $2ks, I had to adjust my UPpity preparations and to assign greater odds to BTC price possibilities that went beyond $5k.. .. so there are likely ways that preparations can be adjusted along the way and to be able to assign higher probabilities to higher numbers once BTC prices cross some of those intermediate price thresholds (on the way up).



Again, I personally don't believe we should be preparing for the ideal, even though we should be prepared in case the ideal happens... if that makes any senses.



Well, yes... more likely that there are going to be some obstacles along the way.. even if we cannot be sure exactly what those obstacles are going to be, we should attempt to prepare for a variety of potential obstacles along the way.



Yes.  That is one way of putting it.  I think that another way of putting it is that we put more preparations into more likely scenarios, and adapt along the way as scenarios become more likely, and of course, that is nearly the same thing as preparing for any scenario, while attempting to focus on the more likely scenarios before focusing on the less likely scenarios.



If you believe that you do not need to tweak anything, then that is on you.

It is good to reflect every once in a while to consider whether any tweakening might be helpful, either psychologically or financially....

and of course, if you have been largely or ONLY "investing what you can afford to lose" then that surely should be helpful in terms of NOT causing you to take rash actions... hopefully...

Sometimes, one of the problemas with bitcoin has been that when the price goes shooting with a large amount of exuberance, we cannot help but to become emotional and possibly unexpectedly transform into irrationality.  It happens on the way up, as well as on the way down.

But if you have been attempting to really be honest with ur lil selfie in regards to how comfortable you are at various price points in case the BTC price kept going up or it reversed, and you are really contemplating that you would be neutral either way, then you may have structured what you are going to do at those various price points as best as you can and causing yourself less likelihood to actually panic when (or if) such scenario happens.



That is fair enough.  I am not going to say that ambiguous feelings might happen, even when you feel that you have prepared  yourself to beat hell.  Guys (and maybe even gal) are second-guessing the hell out of themselves on an ongoing basis, but when the BTC price reverses at $48k in the next year and a half, and crashes back down to $10k or even less, you have to be comfortable financially and psychologically, even if you had chosen NOT to sell any satoshis up until that point..... or whatever other variant of scenario that you might believe to NOT be very probable, but ends up playing out.

Those various price points in regard what to do, exactly, are completely on you and your comfort rather than what other balances (or lack thereof) that other guys and gal may have chosen along that path... that ends up playing out unexpectedly from your point of view.



I think that it was pretty cool that when Travolta's character opens it up, and it seems to glow on his face, and Jackson has to ask Travolta a couple of times before Travolta answers.  hahahaha.



Since I did not see it, I would not know, but surely the fairer sex does seem to have differing sensibilities from the not so fair sex.



Fair enough.. It is an interesting moment, too.


Yes... bonus behind the scenes information.. Thanks, AlcoHoDL.

Another fair and valid point.

I do believe that the mere fact that some of us are not talking about that particular angle does not mean that we are neither aware of that point or appreciate the impact of such point.

This thread is not referring to "crypto" generally, so it would be erroneous to presume that buying dips applies to any shitcoins because you need to be able to have confidence that the various shitcoins are going to go up at some point, and the mere fact that they went down does not mean that they are going to go up, even if bitcoin goes up.

In other words, buying on dips only applies to bitcoin.. fuck that other shit.. and fuck the mindset of believing than shitcoins (altcoins as you refer to them) have any kind of parallel to bitcoin, even if they are wanting to suck off the tit of bitcoin for as long as they can.

O.k..

I will concede to that way of framing the matter because it also ties to living within one's means, which causes options, and of course, there could be higher thresholds that provide for greater options, such as getting rid of the mandatory JOB, and causing the job to become more of an option.

Shouldn't we also recognize that there are a decent number of people who are stuck in various kinds of JOBs, but they mentally frame the matter in such a way that causes them to accept that they do not have very many options.

I remember having times in which I was performing pretty menial and denigrating jobs, but I had various kinds of ways to make myself feel good about the matter - and surely even to feel like I was enjoying the matter.

Perhaps the devil is in the details, and surely I am having some difficulties arguing with you in regards to these points, because sometimes people do put too much emphasis into all or nothing achievements, but there surely are scenarios in which the introduction to bitcoin and thereafter taking meaningful investment actions would later lead to greater states of empowerment and options merely because the investment made returns that were way beyond any other investment asset that you had been holding.

So, from your forum registration, I will presume that both you and I got into bitcoin at a very similar time, so I will use late 2013 as a hypothetical investment date.

So that would provide nearly a 7 year investment time horizon. 

Let's say that we are living largely paycheck to paycheck and with modest savings and modest investments that allow us to largely cover all of our expenses on a regular basis and we have enough savings that we could live for 6 months without a paycheck and/or cover various emergency expenditures.  We are not richie in absolute terms, but we are not really suffering in any kind of meaningful way.  We are feeling relatively happy about our ability to support ourselves with a kind of peace of mind.

When we get introduced to bitcoin, we feel relatively positive about the ideas behind bitcoin, and we want to act in some kind of way to support bitcoin, just in case something might positive happen with bitcoin in the future.  We do not really feel that we have any kind of large amount that we could lump sum invest into bitcoin, but we do feel that we could scrounge up $10 per week on a regular basis and invest that $10 per week into bitcoin without really missing it.

So, after 7 years of $10 per week, we have invested about $3,660 into bitcoin, and that 7 years of relative modest investing into BTC has given us way more options (of a $51K pool of funds to draw from) rather than what we would have been able to achieve through regular gold or stock investments that would have merely just held their value, relative to inflation and not really gotten us much, even though in nominal terms they would have been at about $5,550 and $5,000 respectively.    See DCA BTC link for such current reference to such investment scenario.

So largely, I am conceding.  There are ways that someone in a situation like yours could have not quite reached "fuck you" status when entering into bitcoin and may not even have quite reached a pure objective "fuck you" status, but bitcoin providing quite a few more options, especially after 7 years-ish of mere modest investing and sticking-withit-ness.

Either you are close to reaching "fuck you" status, or you have already reached it.

Either of those scenarios would be good newses.


Alternatively, you wrongly believe that you have reached "fuck you" status in regards to you are in a kind of denial state about possible "master(s)" that you are failing/refusing to recognize or grant proper credit(s).  That would suck. 

Ok.  I watched that clip.

How come when they left, they did not take the briefcase with them?

Am I missing something?  By the way, I had never seen the whole movie, so surely I must be missing something about the meaning of that briefcase.

Also, why was the one cowering black kid spared?  Travolta's character goes up to him in the end of the clip, and he asked why they were not told about the guy with the BIG gun who was hiding in the bathroom, and the kid does not answer - yet he was spared.

If I recall that around the time of that 2014 auction, the then dominant theory was that any coins being auctioned off by government were going to be acquired at bargain prices and then subsequently dumped on the market - therefore still being profitable bitcoins because such dumpening would cause BTC's price to go down so much - whether or not the dumper decided to subsequently buy back at lower prices.

Draper's then action of buying all the coins at higher than the market price was not exactly disclosed at the time, even though hints of such higher purchase price was made.  Furthermore, even though Draper represented himself as a bitcoin bull who would hang onto the coins that he bought, whenever the price would dump (or fail to go up) there were frequent proclamations that Draper was dumping behind the scenes, and that was causing the BTC price to either go down or fail to go up.  These days, we hear those kinds of similar nonsense speculations in regards to Saylor, too.  Saylor is going to dump, Saylor is able to dump, Saylor knows bitcoin is liquid, blah blah blah.. even though we get similar vibes from Saylor as we had gotten from Draper, and in essence Saylor is someone quite likely to HODL through decently long periods in order to allow market forces to play out (which are more likely bullish rather than bearish or even neutral).  

One more thing, regarding Saylor is that he has fairly clearly stated that he already has intentions to continue to buy BTC with incoming cashflow into the future - so I am NOT really sure how those ongoing buys would take place or how much of new incoming cashflow would be used, yet the point is that those kinds of statements in regards to ongoing buying intentions are more bullish than the largely radio silence that we got from Draper.... Draper did not say anything so clearly about engaging in ongoing buying of bitcoin, even though it is possible that between late 2014 and late 2016, he may have been doing so in small quantities on the sly.  Perhaps?


Oh yes.  Thanks for those reminders of past assertions, Lucius.. and also the video link.  I believe that the linked Draper video interview that you provided would have been from late 2014, even though the upload date was May 15, 2015 - since the then current BTC price referenced in the interview was $413 (various dates in September, October or November of 2014 would have been possible for that $413 referenced-price).  By the way, BTC prices on May 15, 2015 were around $235, and BTC prices floated in the mid $200s for an overwhelming majority of 2015.

I did forget to mention, that Draper seems to project BTC prices that are several years out, and even though I doubt that anyone is any kind of soothsayer of specific prices, directionally, Draper has been getting bitcoin correct.. and even getting the specific number correct, too... at least, so far... and surely $10k in 3 years, did seem kind of ridiculously pie in the sky optimistic in mid-2015... just like his ongoing assertions of $250k for 2022/2023 has been seeming a wee bit pie in the sky optimistic, too.

When you are participating in a public thread, you should expect that others might chime in (or bud in, as you put it) to points that are being made within such public thread.

It seems that I have otherwise already stated my various points, and pretty much you continue to misrepresent, even straight forward matters.  I don't see any utility in continuing to repeat variants of points that I have already made.



You repeated the same thing in different words in this here second response... so I can just say ditto to my already made response as well.   

By the way, on a somewhat substantive point, it will be interesting to see how these matters play out.... and surely, Saylor has made quite a few rounds in the bitcoin podcast space, and otherwise receiving a decent amount of attention.

Still his overall investment of $425 million at an average BTC price of $11,111.11 remains a wee bit under water - at least in terms of the face value of the purchase.

I recall in mid-2014, Tim Draper looked kind of like a fool too, when he had purchased around 30k BTC for about $600 each, when he won all of the silkroad auctioned coins... which would have been a $18 million dollar purchase for those coins... around the same quantity of coins that Saylor got.

Presumably Draper won all those BTC from the auction because he outbid everyone else, so part of the dumbness that he seemed was that he largely stayed in the red in regards to his BTC purchase for about 2.5 years - then all of a sudden in late 2016 and into 2017, he started to look like a genius.

Could be that we might be thinking about Saylor in those kinds of ways similar to Draper, but I doubt that Saylor is going to have to wait even a year or so before he starts to look like a genius.  I do agree that there are scenarios in which BTC prices could remain stagnant for a couple of years too, so we will see how it all plays out in terms of the $11,111.11 per BTC purchase price.

7 out of 10 dentists approve your spelling, Biodom.


 

Surely, that is part of the justification why bitcoiner should NOT be blanketedly cheering for BIG government to be taking down Bitmex and its various agents, presuming them to be criminals - even though currently, they are being charged as criminals.  There are due process rights in America, even though sometimes those due process rights are NOT fairly applied or allowed, so of course, frequently injustices occur.  

I am NOT proclaiming that the various departments of the US justice system (who are purportedly representing the interest of the US people) are without a variety of justifications, but surely they need to have jurisdiction over the matters that they are alleging and charging, and due process of law should be allowed, including in criminal cases there are presumptions of innocent until being proved guilty.  Therefore evidence needs to be shown in a court of law, and criminal cases surely have intent elements that must be proven in a court of law, too.  

I am more inclined to presume that injustices are taking place on the side of the accused, when I see members posting about the guilt of these various players way before evidence has even been adequately described (and sure in the court of public opinion, we might even be relying upon more flimsy evidence regarding how we might feel about the situation).


For sure, if we are feeling overexposed to bitcoin, maybe we cut back on our allocation a bit.

But, even with various negative news like this, it remains difficult to figure out where to better put your money, and even if there might be some justifications, based on recent news, how to better allocate.

Of course, each person has to decide for themselves the extent to which they might be over-allocated in bitcoin, and also if s/he might become a target of governmental actions and/or overreach based on his/her own situation - whether that is being accused of  some conduct that s/he did not consider to be against the law.. but sometimes safety measures may well need to be taken in regards to where to hold stash and how much of the private keys are kept off line.  I personally find it can be quite difficult to attempt to sell BTC directly, especially if we start to get to very large numbers, in the future, so in that regard, it is likely better to have some arrangements with traditional institutions to be able to have avenues to liquidate portions of your BTC stash from time to time and also reporting on taxes, consulting with attorneys and accountants and things like that could be helpful too.  

If any of us are pulling out anything approaching fuck you status levels, whether that is a million or more or even in the territory of $6million or more, then we may well need to have some of those liquidation relationships because it could be much more difficult to operate peer to peer with those kinds of quantities, and then might we be interacting in circles that might end up causing questions to our own actions, too - even if we personally believe that we are trying to stay above board with every one of our actions.


Yep.. preparing for and conceding to the possibility of apocalypse and Armageddon-like scenarios are seeming way less outlandish than they were feeling pre-2020.

Might have even called you out as a "nutjob" before you even had a chance to finish your sentence - but these days, you are coming off as somewhat reasonable deploying that apocalypse term.

I did not conclude your post to be suggesting that Bitmex is or would be indispensable in the event that they were totally incapacitated (we are likely quite a distance from that), but I did decide that some further comment seemed warranted.


Of course.  Should not go unnoticed, and sometimes there can be additional costs that are imposed by bullies (or BIG dogs) when there seems to be some kind of potential ideological challenge... perhaps part of the reason that bitcoin attempts to be a  bit milder in a variety of ways - including NOT coming out blatantly with secrecy on its base layer.



Purposes can likely be served by leverage, but 100x does seem to be quite outrageous.

Personally, I cannot really conceive of any frequent way of using 100x in a kind of practical and legitimate way, but people who are more experienced in playing around with leverage are likely more capable of figuring out meaningful and legitimate uses for 100x, besides pure gambling.



There are likely ways to conduct trading to be profitable, so it may not matter too much what happens with most people, if you know what the fuck you are doing.

Sure, there are a lot of folks who trade who likely believe that they know more than they do, and so they may well not be employing their time effectively.

Thanks for highlighting that point as well, nullius.

There has been increasing kinds of funding in the bitcoin space towards developers, research and other matters, and of course, bitcoin will NOT be dead (and probably not even meaningfully disabled) if Bitmex funding towards bitcoin development and research ends up drying up. 

I do agree that through the last several years, Bitmex seems to have served as a decent steward of the bitcoin space, and surely it remains a bit irritating that they are being attacked in such a seemingly strenuous way...., whether that is too much, or merely the US government employing seemingly overbearing tools in order to attempt to negotiate from a better seeming position of strength.   

I surely do not claim to know many of the details of the purported egregiousness that the USA govt is proclaiming against bitmex and four of its officials to justify criminal rather than civil charges, and overall through the years, I have considered Bitmex to be greatly on the net positive side of Bitcoin's development.. even though surely some people (even pretty BIG ass players have gotten quite reckt) have been quite fucked in using their exchange when the market has moved against their bets.

Of course, there are several of us who remain concerned about regulatory overreach and also seeming desperate measures taken by various arms of the USA government.

Clearly there is a bully factor in these matters, and even though there may have been some pretty extreme wild, wild west type activities going on with BitMex's allowance of 100x leverage and problems with incentives created around such extreme abilities to leverage so much.

There have been a variety of actors in the bitcoin space who had been targeted in the past by the USA government in a variety of ways, and does not seem right to be cheering for regulatory overreach and/or bullying.

Furthermore, criminal charges are way the fuck more extreme than civil charges, so we will surely need to see how some of this plays out - especially if we really do not know a lot of the details, and surely it is in the interest of a variety of bitcoiners that Bitmex is able to put up some decent fights.. just like Bitfinex and Tether have been able to do... at least, so far.

I am glad that Bitmex coins had not been seized, and I am glad that mostly account holders are able to get their coins off the exchange, so far.  They have likely processed around 30% withdrawals of the coins that were in their custody.. and I believe that they had an additional mass exodus of coins from their custody during the mid-March liquidation event, and surely some account holders had gambled or lost BIG during some of the March situation, and maybe even Bitmex had lost some credibility from how their exchange appeared to be being used during that situation, too.

By the way Karartma1, I doubt that this particular Bitmex attack situation goes so far as warranting the exiting of a reasonable bitcoin position, but of course, you need to decide for yourself what level of allocation you believe is warranted in bitcoin and whether some of the various bullshit and/or heavy-handed attack tactics sufficiently and materially interfere with bitcoin's investment thesis, including your own ideas of what bitcoin's investment theses might be.  

It's not as if many of us longer term HODLers and/or watchers of the bitcoin space did not expect various governments to attack on bitcoin, and of course, they frequently are going to attempt to engage in divide and conquer or even going after smaller potatoes before attacking the BIGGER dogs, and surely, there are attempts to reward the suck ups, too, so we should NOT be expecting that the level of attacks from various governments and/or incumbent financial institutions would not attempt to play favorites or for bitcoin to bring honesty to the various desperate status quo institutional fucks (whether governmental or financial institutions).

Conclusion?

BTC prices stable now?  BTC losing volatility?

BTC prices are going to stay "stable" from here on out?  (let's say within a few thousand dollars - maybe $8,500 to $12,500 for a couple years, until October-ish of 2022, at least?) 

Upcoming "stable" BTC price movements are going to established earlier propagated BTC price prediction models as NOT valid?



I would NOT suggest such a BTC "stable prices" thesis to be completely out of the question, but gosh, what would be the odds?  Would anyone believe such thing to be possible?

The odds would likely be quite low.., no?

Something less than 20%?  Perhaps even lower, no?

You seem angry.. Biodom.

Note the expression:  "quite possibly"   Doesn't that give you any sense of assurances?  

You seem to want to proclaim that an overpromising has been going on, and you are going to be resentful if such projected happening does not happen and a bunch of innocent peeps (maybe not you) are mislead into being overly bullish about bitcoin.. and accordingly, a bunch of bulltards exist within the BTC space.. not only PlanB  (who you likely have engaged in the fallacy of misplaced concreteness with regards to his arguments) but also dragging Adam Back into your argument target zone of suggesting that he, too, is making overzealous promises in regards to underlying bitcoin price dynamics..

i.e another person you believe to be overpromising in regards to the future of bitcoin....

Be responsible and take these kinds of representations with a grain of salt - no one is being misled, except dummies.. no investment advice is being given, because each of us needs to conclude for our own lil selfies whether to invest in BTC or not, how much to invest and how to go about investing, if we do - because as you know.. peeps are responsible for themselves and there are no guarantees in bitcoinlandia, even if some peeps draw lines on papers or computer screens and present price prediction models in order to help you (and others) to pee pare ur lil selfies for UPpity (that may or may not happening)..  

The mere placement of those lines on the page / computer screen does not guarantee anything, even if such guarantees seem to be appearing as if they were concrete in your thinking about the situation.. because you see them on a piece of paper/computer screen.

Yes.. you are going to kick and scream while bitcoin is going up (why have we been stuck in $10ks for more than 3 years.. blah blah blah). and say that you have NOT been underinvesting in king daddy, but it is quite hard to imagine that you are NOT holding back some of your value because you remain skeptical and scared and so worried about supposed over guarantees that have been taking place in regards to bitcoin price UPpity.    

I must admit that you most likely need a batman slap.      (no homo)

I could give less than two ratt's asses about who is planB.

The ideas do not matter in regards to who he is.

Either you appreciate the ideas or you do not, and largely, PlanB is not saying anything differently than what had been previously said before he came onto the bitcoin scene.  Sure, PlanB is organizing the ideas, but largely he is not saying anything new.

You seem to be distracted in terms of being against ideas for the mere sake of it, and tying such ideas to a person, and the person does not matter at all.

In any event, any of us should appreciate that PlanB has attempted to statistically lay out where BTC price has been, to show where we are at, to account for various ideas in the BTC space and projections of BTC's stock in order to create a meaning and plausible trajectory where BTC's price is likely to go, but he is NOT saying anything more than what was already known before he came into the space (and what he was saying was already being said in differing kinds of ways). 

So sure, currently, PlanB is resonating with peeps and he is packaging up ideas and information in a nice and lovely digestible package... which concededly in the end does end up adding some kind of value and message in and of itself.. but who cares, right?

Part of the point should be that we should not be putting any particular peeps on any kind of pedestal, so of course you are correct in that regard, Biodom... but anyhow, there are all kinds of idea contributors in the bitcoin space, and some peeps are more eloquent than other peeps.

Further, as I said before, there could be a whole hell of a lot of deviation from the BTC price prediction model of PlanB too, based on actual human behavior (manipulations) and also strivenings to cause the BTC price prediction models to become untrue or to make it look like it is NOT true, but until such deviations from PlanB's price prediction model take place or there becomes any need to shift the terms of the model, the model continues to be amongst the best of the datafying of the BTC price predictions...

So sure, this particular PlanB price prediction model is true, until it is NOT.. and even if it might NOT appear to be true, it still might be true...

But still at the same time, fuck PlanB.  NO deifying of peeps - except maybe satoshi, and maybe even that is not appropriate, either? 

So maybe I should say, fuck satoshi, too... hopefully not appearing to be either blasphemous, bitter or ungrateful.. so there is some agreement about no need to deify peeps while still remaining appreciative of their contributions to the space and the ideas which are embedded into the contributions of many others besides Plan B and besides satoshi in order to come to these various kinds of grandeur ideas that have developed from many.  On the other hand, just like you might be suggesting, Biodom, together we can pray to king daddy.. not trying to put words in your lil mousie.. ....

pee pare ur lil selfie... and perhaps thank me later...      

That sounds more like your interpretation to me, but hey, maybe PlanB did say something that is that dumb...

"My model will be invalid, if it gets manipulated into quasi-oblivion because maths and science rules the world."

That would be a ridiculous posuture in regards to a model that is based on various probabilities rather than certainties.



Of course, you hardly see any value in the model anyhow, you have already asserted that several times and you tend to repeat your assertions at almost any possible opportunity that you can.


Sure of course.  As I said, I am not wedded to that particular model even though it does seem to have a lot of explanatory effect in terms of where  we have been and where we are.  Sure, it is less solid in terms of its predictive effect, but surely still decently co-integrated in order to be amongst the best of the models including if you supplement it too by taking into account the four-year fractal and the s-curve exponential adoption based on networking effects and metcalfe principles. 

Surely, in my self-described humble bumble opinion, no need to go whining if the supposed bare minimum thresholds either are not met by the anticipated date or if there are delays in meeting such thresholds... but hey, aren't we (the royal we) repeating ourselves?


Surely, good to be a bit flexible on the time frames, even though surely we have seen quite decent past correlation with a couple of the past four-year fractals.. and even though such 4-year fractals are not set in stone, they have tended to show quite remarkable similarity patterns.. take such info (and timelines) with a grain of salt and be a doubting Tomas if it makes you feel more better about some of us becoming richie (hopefully you are included in such becoming MOAR richie status since you are neither waiting to buy nor failing/refusing to adequately pee pare ur lil selfie for UPpity..    even if you might be kicking and screaming the whole UPpity way towards getting materially closer and closer to fuck you and your mother status.... so long as you did not fail/refuse to adequately pee pare ur lil selfie..  ).

Even though some folks want to consider the US system like it were able to employ willy-nilly nepotism, I question the extent to which candidates can be changed either at the last moment or even changed at all after voting has already started.

Furthermore, there are state by state differentiations in terms of merely getting on the ballot or whether candidates can be written in, etc etc..

So, just seems like a legal quagmire to play various kinds of games of attempting to hand-off power, even in extreme circumstances, and even though these day, it remains difficult to rule out anything when it comes to what certain parties might attempt to pull off.

It's like desperate times call for desperate measures - and gosh, if some weird-ass shit has been allowed to happen earlier in this administration in terms of nepotism like practices, why not continue with additional weird-ass measures that are not necessarily based within actual legal requirements?

I doubt that it is in anyone's interest (especially BTC HODLers) to really be asking for more societal drama in order for king daddy bitcoin to prosper..

Bitcoin would likely be much better served by fewer Armageddon-wannabe scenarios.


That seems to be a bit of a strange claim about the model being supposedly broken if the BTC price is below $55k by the end of next year...

We will see, Biodom, but your claim seems to be a bit strong and wishful on your behalf, Biodom.. I mean in terms of you wanting to proclaim that the model is either worth very little or not worth anything.. and it is as if you are just rooting on an ongoing basis that the model is not true... ...

for what reason, it is difficult to know for sure..

Seems to me that you are just overly bothered by the model and you are ongoingly trying to figure out ways to discount the model and suggest that it adds little to no value to our thinking about BTC price dynamics, no?

Also, it seems to me that BTC prices could be manipulated down for 13-14 months or even extending 2 years from now or longer .. in order to cause the stock to flow model to appear to be broken.. and so what would that ongoing and persistent manipulation accomplish exactly, if it were to happen?  

Seems to me that such ongoing downward manipulation could cause an explosive BTC price move later on down the road, or maybe such ongoing downward manipulation would cause a shifting of the trendline of the model to get pushed downward within the model.. so I am not clear why you believe that such need to potentially tweak the model would necessarily cause the model to be broken or invalid.. because the model is likely NOT guaranteeing as much as you seem to be wanting to argue that such model guarantees.

You are seeming to transition into a behemoth analyzer status, 600w...  

satoshi? Is that you?    

Thanks for your ongoing in-depth presentations regarding current underlying bitcoin-related dynamics.   #nohomo


Yep.

Even early in the year, while he was telling the populous that the virus was "not a problem" blah blah blah, he was getting tested on a very regular basis, and anyone who was exposed to him was getting tested on a regular basis.

But, like you suggested, lightfoot, the virus does not give two ratt's asses whether you are taking half-assed measures... a bubble, like you said, but NOT anything close to enough of a solid bubble.


Torque does not believe in such god theory(ies), unless god happens to be some kind of a manipulator, who is screwing with various matters just to irk Torque-ie porkie.