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Question: When will BTC get back above $70K:
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26489861 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
JayJuanGee
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October 03, 2020, 06:39:42 PM

I am glad that Bitmex coins had not been seized, and I am glad that mostly account holders are able to get their coins off the exchange, so far.

That is good news.  Whereas I am more worried about such things as this—just for instance:

https://blog.bitmex.com/who-funds-bitcoin-development/

https://blog.bitmex.com/hdr-global-trading-increases-bitcoin-developer-grant-to-us100000/

BitMEX is far from the biggest funder of Bitcoin development; but their support of the effort that makes Bitcoin work on a technical level is nothing to sneeze at, either.

Most people do not even think about this.  High-quality free and open-source software engineering just appears spontaneously out of thin air, without funding and organization.  (Rather like revolutions, “amorphous movements”, mass-migrations, etc.; the world is such a random place, in which human events just happen without any organization, leadership, or money.)

From what I have seen from the sidelines, BitMEX has also otherwise been on the good side of many Bitcoin issues.  E.g., “Therefore BitMEX will not be able to support SegWit2x.  [...]  BitMEX considers any and all contentious hardfork tokens as altcoins.”  It would be a shame if they were to diminish or disappear, leaving a void to be filled by some of the exchanges who are practically enemies of Bitcoin.

Note:  I have no connection to BitMEX, and no financial interest in the foregoing statement.  My experience with centralized exchanges is pretty much nil; and I don’t know anybody at BitMEX.


Thanks for highlighting that point as well, nullius.

There has been increasing kinds of funding in the bitcoin space towards developers, research and other matters, and of course, bitcoin will NOT be dead (and probably not even meaningfully disabled) if Bitmex funding towards bitcoin development and research ends up drying up. 

I do agree that through the last several years, Bitmex seems to have served as a decent steward of the bitcoin space, and surely it remains a bit irritating that they are being attacked in such a seemingly strenuous way...., whether that is too much, or merely the US government employing seemingly overbearing tools in order to attempt to negotiate from a better seeming position of strength.   

I surely do not claim to know many of the details of the purported egregiousness that the USA govt is proclaiming against bitmex and four of its officials to justify criminal rather than civil charges, and overall through the years, I have considered Bitmex to be greatly on the net positive side of Bitcoin's development.. even though surely some people (even pretty BIG ass players have gotten quite reckt) have been quite fucked in using their exchange when the market has moved against their bets.
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October 03, 2020, 06:56:54 PM


https://twitter.com/RoninNode/status/1312339488774017024
hmm maybe
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October 03, 2020, 07:00:01 PM


wallet.dat backed up on a USB stick, inserted in one’s anus?
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October 03, 2020, 07:10:51 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)


Yeah triggering the airport security gate > cavity search > humiliating extraction  Grin
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October 03, 2020, 07:12:36 PM

That's the worst way I've ever seen on storing your private keys. I would prefer memorising the 256 bits' order.
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October 03, 2020, 07:13:54 PM
Merited by strawbs (1)

Today is going to be a crazy day.
In these moments it is like being in the middle of the ocean with the sea calm, stereo on, coffee, happy saturday

Sometimes it's both.
Did i write about my wife getting educated in hypnosis recently?

I know that is completely off topic(s), but i'd like to share the following experience, and what it did to me.

First, i had self-hypnosis, meditation and NLP practice starting about 20 years ago already, so i am a person that gets into trance more easily than most other people.
Second, i always considered myself as almost impossible to be consciously manipulated by others.
Third, in the realm of the unconscious, i was proved wrong.

So we already had two sessions so far, one to check out my ability to get into hypnosis, the second one to help my selfie to stand more by my values, where i was feeling to adjust to others too often/quickly.

The third one was of type "return to a life before getting reincarnated into the current one". The one most people experience themselves as their former "me", mostly human.
I'll try to make the path to it short: I just had exercise and my mind was pretty active. It took me about 5 minutes to get into trance, and left the guidance and moderation to my unconscious self and the voice of my beloved guide.

I was floating about 1000 to 1500 meters high in windy heights, it felt a little cold to me. I was looking at an island in front and below me, it had perfectly circular shoreline and shaped as a perfect cone with concave sides, becoming progressively thinner near the top, like a circus tent. Snow and ice on the top quarter or so, absolutely flat surface, like printed on it. The waters were silver-greyish and rippled with waves, a little glowing somehow, but the sea didn't move at all. It felt like i had a body, but i couln't look at it. I exactly felt that my arms ended above elbow level, and from an inch or two below the solar plexus my body sensation was like "cut off", with a glowing warmth, radiating from this region into my body, along the edges of my ribs, like the boundaries of the lungs. I didn't breathe. I had no name i was aware of, i was floating in a fixed position and the cool winds were blowing around my body.
I was waiting. Peacefully and patiently, with that glowing feeling embracing and radiating through my body. When i was asked how long i was waiting, i said "for a long time". Asked further, it turned out that i had no idea of how long and what exactly i was waiting for. I was not able to look at other things than the mountain island.
Then it went black, and i sensed the sensation of the light in a room getting brighter, observed with closed eyes. But the light didn't actually get brighter, i was aware that i was "back in reality", after getting "kicked out".
The reason of me getting kicked out was a slight "mistake" made by my guide, i won't get into it more deeply here, because it didn't matter for me.

Now, what's it all related to the quote i put in bold letters?

When i opened my eyes, i could still feel the sensation described above, throughout my inside (#nohomo btw.)
It lasted through the whole day, and it made me feel exactly
Quote
... like being in the middle of the ocean with the sea calm ...
which triggered my reply, which i originally intended to keep off WO because off topic, and yeah - who would even believe this, from a random fellow on the interweb?

Now this happened on tuesday, and the thing is... it made myself more peaceful, to put it in a word remotely able to describe what i mean.
Not just noticeably, but almost like forced. On the first few days after it, my selfie ego fought back to gain control, and it did to some extent, but i don't really care, because i now know what "it" feels like, and i just have to remember it, to start bringing it back. It is somewhat different to anything i experienced in meditation before. Currently a lot in my life is changing, in terms of perspective. Only a few experiences on drugs like LSD had this quality of an impact on my perception of myself and/or my environment.

Most people on this kind of hypnosis experience "former" lives of themselves as some person with some trouble or history, influencing ones current life. I heard some stories before, from people i know that went under that kind of hypnosis, and they all had experiences that made them look different at their struggles, making it easier for them to solve. I was a sceptic every time.

I feel like maybe there is something we all forgot about. Something we were maybe experiencing from some stage as unborns, when we were free from conditioned emotions and thoughts. I'm not getting crazy, i already was in past times, so i think i can differentiate between my crazy and "normal" me  Grin

If anybody here has been helped by reading this, or will help him/her in the future, i'd be happy enough that i decided to share it.
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October 03, 2020, 07:19:10 PM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (2)

all that fits up LFC's anus? Shocked
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October 03, 2020, 07:57:50 PM

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October 03, 2020, 08:02:17 PM

There has been increasing kinds of funding in the bitcoin space towards developers, research and other matters, and of course, bitcoin will NOT be dead (and probably not even meaningfully disabled) if Bitmex funding towards bitcoin development and research ends up drying up.

Of course, I did not intend to suggest that Bitcoin was in any way dependent on BitMEX or any other single party.  I should hope that I was not misunderstood that way by anybody!

I do agree that through the last several years, Bitmex seems to have served as a decent steward of the bitcoin space, and surely it remains a bit irritating that they are being attacked in such a seemingly strenuous way...., whether that is too much, or merely the US government employing seemingly overbearing tools in order to attempt to negotiate from a better seeming position of strength.

Indeed, I somewhat noticed that U.S. regulators went aggressively after an exchange that has demonstrated pro-Bitcoin behaviour, instead of ripping into one of the many exchanges that never saw a forked shitcoin they didn’t love.  It’s not as if the U.S. government has ever been in any direct or indirect way connected to shitconery.  Just joking.  I think.

I surely do not claim to know many of the details of the purported egregiousness that the USA govt is proclaiming against bitmex and four of its officials to justify criminal rather than civil charges, and overall through the years, I have considered Bitmex to be greatly on the net positive side of Bitcoin's development.. even though surely some people (even pretty BIG ass players have gotten quite reckt) have been quite fucked in using their exchange when the market has moved against their bets.

I suppose that that’s called “taking responsibility for your own money”.  I presume that it’s a Bitcoin thing.

Waving my hands a bit over the nature of levers:

If I wanted to gamble in a casino at 100x or even 10000x leverage, I don’t suppose that any do-gooding busybodies would want to protect me from potentially losing my own money through my own choices and my own follies...  Oh, wait!  Meanwhile, savvy traders who do not go insane or get drunk on leverage have probably made a reasonable profit at the MEX and other exchanges.

Aside, it always astounds me that some people seem not to know that market trading is zero-sum.  If somebody lost a fortune, somebody else gained—and vice versa.  TANSTAAFL.
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October 03, 2020, 08:16:07 PM
Merited by ivomm (1)

Bitcoin is a 'common good'.
Bitmex was damaging it by 100x margin, as easy as this.
btc going down 1% wipes out the 100X long position.
can a 1btc account spoof? No. can a 10K-100K btc account do the same on mex? Absolutely.
We have speed limit signs on most highways, right? Same idea.
Bitmex is no autobahn.

I would not shear a single tear if mex is gone or curtailed (after allowing outgoing btc transfers, of course).
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October 03, 2020, 08:21:30 PM


https://twitter.com/missteencrypto/status/1312398645006917632

some lovely blooms she has there
JayJuanGee
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October 03, 2020, 08:37:39 PM

There has been increasing kinds of funding in the bitcoin space towards developers, research and other matters, and of course, bitcoin will NOT be dead (and probably not even meaningfully disabled) if Bitmex funding towards bitcoin development and research ends up drying up.

Of course, I did not intend to suggest that Bitcoin was in any way dependent on BitMEX or any other single party.  I should hope that I was not misunderstood that way by anybody!

I did not conclude your post to be suggesting that Bitmex is or would be indispensable in the event that they were totally incapacitated (we are likely quite a distance from that), but I did decide that some further comment seemed warranted.

I do agree that through the last several years, Bitmex seems to have served as a decent steward of the bitcoin space, and surely it remains a bit irritating that they are being attacked in such a seemingly strenuous way...., whether that is too much, or merely the US government employing seemingly overbearing tools in order to attempt to negotiate from a better seeming position of strength.

Indeed, I somewhat noticed that U.S. regulators went aggressively after an exchange that has demonstrated pro-Bitcoin behaviour, instead of ripping into one of the many exchanges that never saw a forked shitcoin they didn’t love.  It’s not as if the U.S. government has ever been in any direct or indirect way connected to shitconery.  Just joking.  I think.

Of course.  Should not go unnoticed, and sometimes there can be additional costs that are imposed by bullies (or BIG dogs) when there seems to be some kind of potential ideological challenge... perhaps part of the reason that bitcoin attempts to be a  bit milder in a variety of ways - including NOT coming out blatantly with secrecy on its base layer.


I surely do not claim to know many of the details of the purported egregiousness that the USA govt is proclaiming against bitmex and four of its officials to justify criminal rather than civil charges, and overall through the years, I have considered Bitmex to be greatly on the net positive side of Bitcoin's development.. even though surely some people (even pretty BIG ass players have gotten quite reckt) have been quite fucked in using their exchange when the market has moved against their bets.

I suppose that that’s called “taking responsibility for your own money”.  I presume that it’s a Bitcoin thing.

Purposes can likely be served by leverage, but 100x does seem to be quite outrageous.

Personally, I cannot really conceive of any frequent way of using 100x in a kind of practical and legitimate way, but people who are more experienced in playing around with leverage are likely more capable of figuring out meaningful and legitimate uses for 100x, besides pure gambling.


Waving my hands a bit over the nature of levers:

If I wanted to gamble in a casino at 100x or even 10000x leverage, I don’t suppose that any do-gooding busybodies would want to protect me from potentially losing my own money through my own choices and my own follies...  Oh, wait!  Meanwhile, savvy traders who do not go insane or get drunk on leverage have probably made a reasonable profit at the MEX and other exchanges.

Aside, it always astounds me that some people seem not to know that market trading is zero-sum.  If somebody lost a fortune, somebody else gained—and vice versa.  TANSTAAFL.

There are likely ways to conduct trading to be profitable, so it may not matter too much what happens with most people, if you know what the fuck you are doing.

Sure, there are a lot of folks who trade who likely believe that they know more than they do, and so they may well not be employing their time effectively.
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October 03, 2020, 08:56:12 PM

It’s coming again....


https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1312449034154504192?s=21



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October 03, 2020, 09:05:11 PM

100x leverage is for a trader who knows exactly where a large candle is about to form in the direction they predict, alot of knowledge and timing is going to occur in that decision or they wont last long.    I dont think its a negative by itself and its not even abnormal because I think options contracts allow similar, mostly its going to make a profit for the house as its gambling for most who dont have those skills and discipline to enter correctly.    We all know BTC regularly just does loop the loop and repeats its pricing, occasionally theres a bigger candle but I dont know when tbh.    Was there any big candle to match the news of President getting covid, if that news isnt showing up in an obvious way I dont know how it could be easily predictable really.

We been going sideways a few months roughly, not sure I get my wish but looking for price action to stop with the lower highs and do something new fairly soon.   Falling 50 day and rising 200 day and we squish between them since September start.
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October 03, 2020, 09:22:22 PM

November soon.. Remember Remember

Looking stable.. Time for some pumpenings..
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October 03, 2020, 09:56:18 PM
Merited by vapourminer (2)

The problem in not the 100x itself but rather the opportunity which it creates with a practically anonymous account. I say 'practically' because even if someone is giving his name, his actions are not monitored like on regulated US exchanges.

Take the numerous cases in which CFTC discovered derivate manipulations. What does this mean? Simply speaking this means that one person (or family, or a circle of friends) trades  simultaneously on spot market and derivate market taking advantage of its own action. With regulated exchanges it is easier to find these people and to sue them for their illegal actions. Many of us were suspicious about the CME gaps for example, expecting a dump to fill those gaps at $9600. Well, it happened several times before but not this time, which shows that CFTC is working well with CME.  

On the other hand, it is much easier with a 100x margin to manipulate the marked by selling both on mex and some less liquid spot exchange. There is a risk of a price swing of course, but theoretically such practically anonymous persons or entities could do this endlessly. If there is no monitoring on behalf of mex staff, then everything is allowed. And this is by no means good for the natural growth of Bitcoin. Not to mention that there are numerous suspicions that mex owners are playing against their clients. Of course, they know all their positions and can squeeze them anytime. I can recall for at least 2 articles in coindesk and cointelegraph about it. They also can turn off the server in case something goes wrong like 12 March crash. And finally, I really don't believe that the owners are innocent and not cooperating with money launderers. So, the hodlers should have no tears or remorse for mex. Grin

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October 03, 2020, 10:25:43 PM


This stimulus is medically indicated for the treatment of acute hysteria:



High inflation with potential for hyperinflation, however, is rather like taking a cyanide pill to cure a headache.  I suppose that it does work, in a sense.





Excellent.  So good that it actually made me go to Twitter and peruse the discussion.  Thanks.
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October 03, 2020, 10:28:45 PM

Today is going to be a crazy day.
In these moments it is like being in the middle of the ocean with the sea calm, stereo on, coffee, happy saturday

Sometimes it's both.
Did i write about my wife getting educated in hypnosis recently?

I know that is completely off topic(s), but i'd like to share the following experience, and what it did to me.

...
If anybody here has been helped by reading this, or will help him/her in the future, i'd be happy enough that i decided to share it.
With apologies to the OP.  Smiley

Thanks for sharing.  I've had similar experiences, and yours match up well with what I have seen and felt.

My grandfather was a professional hypnotist.  He was a dentist and he'd use it to anesthetize patients before performing oral surgery.  And so, he hypnotized me a few times.  The experiences you describe can also be achieved, as you know, through many means, like: self hypnosis, shamanic drumming, reiki, or even just spontaneously, etc.  These all have similar outcomes to allow one to experience those other parts of the mind and self.
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October 03, 2020, 10:48:57 PM
Merited by Last of the V8s (1)


Sadly corruption exists everywhere.

In the west it is just not so obvious and sitting straight in front of your eye compared to developing nations and similar.

And this also sometimes directly lead to another problem:

Exploitation of poorer nations and thus worsening corruption there.

(Slave and child labor, destruction of the enviroment and economy, exploitation of natural ressources without the ethnic population taking part of the profits)

Quote from: John Emerich Edward Dalberg-Acton
Power tends to corrupt;
absolute power corrupts absolutely.




A nice article about bitmex from a lawyer:

https://cointelegraph.com/news/indictments-issued-for-bitmex-senior-team-are-a-signal-to-all
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October 03, 2020, 11:09:00 PM


An exceedingly long rant response was hereby cut, and replaced with the following:

Who appointed the United States and its institutions to supervise Bitcoin?

N.b. that I myself despise financial speculation in principle.  I think that in a perfect world, there would be no significant financial speculation at all.  If I find myself in the unusual position of defending that sort of activity, then that may be a sign that you have stepped into the zone of HANDS OFF MY BITCOIN and AMERICA IS NOT THE GODDAMN WORLD POLICE—AMERICA IS NOT THE BITCOIN POLICE.

Bitmex was damaging it by 100x margin, as easy as this.
btc going down 1% wipes out the 100X long position.

That is what margin calls are for.  Fools suffer from their follies.

We have speed limit signs on most highways, right? Same idea.

Suggesting that the U.S. government should or can put “speed limit signs” on Bitcoin!  You, personally, are a part of the problem.  There is already a shitcoin for you:  It is called the United States Dollar.

Bitmex is no autobahn.

Also, stop believing urban legends.  Most if not all of the Autobahn has speed limits.  The limits just tend to be... rather high.  Are you perchance American?  I have only ever seen Americans repeat that nonsense.

With regulated exchanges it is easier to find these people and to sue them for their illegal actions. Many of us were suspicious about the CME gaps for example, expecting a dump to fill those gaps at $9600. Well, it happened several times before but not this time, which shows that CFTC is working well with CME.

...oh... oh.  So you think this is because of CME.  Thanks; if (if) you are correct, then I now despise them even more than I already have since that was first announced in 2017.  The Bitcoin futures market should get wrecked, so that it stops messing with the normal Bitcoin market.  If everybody who trades futures and other derivatives were to go bankrupt, it would be better for Bitcoin in the long term.

The problem in not the 100x itself but rather the opportunity which it creates with a practically anonymous account.

[...]

money launderers

OK, gotcha.  You’ve a few Horsemen left to go.



If it is not something that can be done safely in an unregulated market, then maybe you shouldn’t be doing it in an unregulated market.  Don’t try to create the clusterfork of the bank-run financial markets in Bitcoin.

<snip>
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