Just to be a bit more clear dude, you likely realize that one of the assumptions underlying PlanB's model is a kind of steadiness in the demand curve aspect of the supply/demand curve.  Since future demand for BTC is NOT really known, PlanB's model assumes demand as a kind of constant... .and PlanB's model is criticized for such holding of demand constant.

Sure, I will concede that "holding of demand constant" is likely a somewhat valid criticism of the stock to flow model because it is actually true that we cannot really know future demand of BTC with any kind of precision.. but still, at the same time, there is a certain level of doing the best with the information that you have, but surely if something BIG happens with demand (in either direction), then such stock to flow model could be shown to having had presumed too much and based on incomplete information.. which surely future demand of BTC is not really any kind of thing to treat lightly, either... but how the fuck are we going to be able to estimate future demand with any kind of precision?

Therefore, in my humble bumble thinking, it does seem to me that Stock to Flow does take a largely reasonable approach to future BTC demand by merely holding such future demand as a constant, and personally I believe that both the: 1) four-year fractal model and also 2) the s-curve exponential adoption model based on networking and Metcalfe principles are good complementary supplement price prediction models to the stock to flow model in order to attempt to probabilistically account for the potential deficiency of the "constant demand" presumption that is embedded within such stock to flow model.

And, I am glad that you, lambie bambie, were able to take the dick of the red-headed twat out of your mouth long enough in order that you could make your so eloquently-stated post (surely, we needed to receive such important information from uie pooie).



Who is the retard?  

Of course, lambie bambie.. who elsie?

Just for clarification for your lil brain (to the extent that one exists?)

Question 1:  likelihood that your red headed buddy will not survive a positive covid result in the coming months

Question 2:  consequences of such non-survival, were such non-survival to occur.

I spot my lil selfie a retard, and it is not yours truly.  

Possibly.


Federal crimes and state crimes.  Presidents have pardon power over federal crimes, and surely there would be some turmoil over any of these kinds of potential corruption matters... Yet when there are so many messes that are made, sometimes, even politicians of the opposing party, prefer to merely bring closure to some of the matters rather than revealing how extensively the people have been fleeced by a variety of greed/power based shenanigans.

This is not an accurate statement, fillippone.

One of the top 4 guys was arrested and three others were charged. 

"Arrested" would more accurately describe some how being physically restrained (even if later released) - and physical restraint only happened to one of them so far, as far as any of us knows as I type this post.  Unless you have news that is not otherwise currently known by yours truly?

Funny thing about twitter remains whether senile ones could construct their own tweets.

Both of those fucks cheat in that regard, so there may need to be rules to govern the verification of their typing.... maybe we need a blockchain for that?  BSV.. they have plenty of extra space for nonsense.. and surely can be trusted.

Didn't someone mention earlier that those POTUS candidate diptwats were tweeting during the actual debates... Yeah, right?  That would be some other dork sending such like-minded dork tweet nonsense.  A form of desperation to not even be able to wait until the damned debate is over to at least allow for an actual appearance that the actual dweeb is typing the actual dumb thought dweeb tweets.

hahahaha

You cannot wish the BTC price direction (well maybe you can? as an exception to the general rule... hahahahaha). 

Instead, there would be an acknowledgement of where we have been and where we might be likely to go.

The sentiment has been pretty negative in the past 24 hours or so, but still we have not gotten back down to the $10,138 low from 10 days ago.  Bullish?  I wonder.

Sometimes we just have consolidation in a range, and no one really knows for sure which way the price is going to break (when it does), and at some point, the margin trading in stacking up on each side to help to cause some fuel for the opposite direction, but then now we have some potential disabling of Bitmex which may well affect some of the BTC price motivating dynamics in terms of price - including likely lesser profits from betting down (even though surely there are other financial "down-betting" vehicles, besides Bitmex, out there too).

One funny thing that sometimes happens would be a kind of disruption and taking advantage of some kind of strange event (such as the Bitmex disabling situation) that causes the market to react in the opposite direction... we saw that with silk road in late 2013 and we saw that with chinese freezing of their exchanges in late 2016.

Remember also the bitfinex "hackening" situation in August 2016... which may be more timely parallel in BTC's 4-year cycle (to the extent that such cycle exists).  That Bitfinex situation took a few months to resolve.. or at least to bring some clarity back to the BTC market.

Odds of death would probably be closer to 1/50, maybe even quite a bit greater than that for someone who is in such age group.. maybe even other underlying health factors that might not be being disclosed, also.

On the other hand, if we assume he gets the best of treatment (not blood letting because we are in "modern times"), maybe the odds would lower to something in the 1/100 to 1/200 arena... but 1/10,000 odds seems way too low.

Regarding your second question, of course, you are not serious... should not be treating trolls as if serious, even on the face of the question it could hardly be serious.



Actually, you might be correct that he does not actually have it.  It could be a sympathy play.

If he does have it, personally, I would not assume that he is as healthy as he proclaims himself to be.

You are not referring to my "conservative" prediction, I hope, and trying to suggest that I am waffling or becoming more conservative because of fear in regard to some short-term bad newses?

In spite of the short term bad newses (ie bitmex situation), my overall framework has actually become more bullish (at least I have been thinking about this for about week or two), as I attempted to outline in the post to say that I have tentatively moved my BTC price appreciation expectations from 5.5% to 12%.

By the way, I did think about you too, Biodom because increasing BTC price appreciation expectations from 5.5% to 12% .. also has significant, meaningful and material impacts upon things like retirement and various underlying presumptions of passive income and thresholds for reaching fuck you status...

Increasing BTC price appreciation expectations from 5.5% to 12% will significantly bring down the capital requirements for reaching fuck you status..... but surely, if some aggressive withdrawal abilities are expected, then maybe there would be some needs for maintaining a greater cushion, too?

So instead of having a withdrawal rate of 4% per year, the withdrawal rate could be moved up to something like 8% per year.

You did not even like my reliance on a 4% per year in order to maintain passive income status, so surely, you will be more bothered by a doubling to an 8% per year withdrawal rate... and so I will concede that even for me, it is feeling a bit aggressive.. and I am going to play with it for a bit of time to see if I can make it work... it is a kind of bitcoin exception.. that may not end up playing out, empirically.. I will play with it for a while in any upcoming hypothetical...

Good news for uie pooie the persistent party poop is that if you used to need $6 million of capital to maintain your passive income expectations (based on a 4% withdrawal rate), you could figure out ways to reduce that down to a $3 million principle based on an 8% withdrawal rate and still find it workable to achieve your income expectations..

hahahahaha

I don't expect you to go down into accepting these concepts (including a possible doubling of your withdrawal rate) without a fight.  

Oh yeah... also, in regards to 1) Plan B's stock to flow, 2) 4-year fractal and 3) s-curve exponential adoption based on metcalfe and networking principles, those ideas are still in the background and likely pushing BTC UPpity on an ongoing basis and they persist to cause bullish ideations, but I would not believe it prudent to structure base finances around them in any kind of meaning and substantial way - though good, for sure, to have a plan in case that outrageous shit were to end up happening.. and really, the models do not really cause them to be lessening in likelihood, even if there might be some short-terms feelings of set back and even if we were to get some kind of correction down to BTC's 200 week moving average (of $6,800) or something seemingly outrageous like that.

A bit far into the future.

I hate to be a fuddy duddy, but I will make a relatively conservative BTC price prediction for that date that is somewhat in my ongoing practices to keep my expectations somewhat low....  

On that same note, in recent times, I have decided to move up upon my earlier bitcoin investment thesis, which was to anticipate and plan around a 5.5% per year price increase, and I have decided to tentatively move that BTC price appreciation expectation up to 12% per year.  This is NO small deal, and perhaps many people are going to conclude that I am too pie in the sky.. so maybe that is why I used the word, "tentatively."

Of course, historically, those of us in bitcoin for a while have experienced that some years have been better than others, but if we average out Bitcoin's overall performance, we have gotten pleasantly surprised by its ongoing outperformance of all other asset classes... at least asset classes that are used for storage of value... and perhaps no asset classes can proclaim to be nearly as liquid as bitcoin... even though some of bitcoin's liquidity is being threatened with the Bitmex situation.

I am thinking that I can conservatively estimate that from here on out I can expect an average return on my BTC of at least 12% per year (upped from 5.5%), and I am going to reframe my future cashflow plans around such revised bitcoin price appreciation thesis.

Accordingly, a conservative BTC price indicator is the 200 Weekly moving average which is currently at nearly $6,800.

Therefore, I will expressed a combined guess for September 30, 2021 that:

1) BTC's 200-Week moving average will be at least $7,616 ($6,800 + 12%) -

and

2) BTC's street price will be at least  $12,008 ($10,721 + 12%) .

I know.. seems easy to meet these expectations, but I really feel uncomfortable with underperformance or not meeting expectations, so I would prefer to meet or exceed expectations rather than NOT.

Again... even though there is some conservativism, here,... at least on a somewhat brighter note,  I have decided to move my average per year BTC price appreciation expectations up from 5.5% to 12% - which likely has some amount of bullishness contained therein, even if today we had been hearing about somewhat debby-downer Bitmex newses.

Yes, curious one. There will be.  

Hopefully, you are still pee paring ur lil selfie for such party, including pee paring ur lil selfie for UPpity.

Such party has been delayed by approximately two weeks.^tm 

You heard it here, first.

Whoaza!!!!!!

That mustn't be yours truly...    

Surely, you mustv'e been referrening to some udder peep.  

See proposed change above.


That assertion might have some truths to it.  

Pics of those teeths tend to present admireably as:  BIG, scary and organized.


The other three Bitmex representatives who were charged gotta be feeling some kinds of pressures, currently.  I would imagine that they have decent amounts of moneys that they can spend on attorneys, and they may even be able to garner some sympathy donations, too (from the bitcoin community, and perhaps even some shitcoiners might be willing to send value in such legal defense direction, too).


ditto

So, currently, Bitmex is processing withdrawals in a way that is more regular than regularly?

In other words, we (royal?) do not need to worry about the earlier fear expressed by WhalePanda that was reflected in your earlier post (depicted below)?

No.


Well, whenever you are writing further on this particular topic (perhaps in the form of a tome or treatise? - #nohomo), hopefully you keep in mind practicality of regular joes - reminds me a bit of how trace mayer used to recommend people hold their keys.. ... Yeah, right, works for technical geniuses, but not necessarily for regular joes.

In other words, not everyone is ready, willing and able to learn, even if they might meet part of that formula.. they need all of it... including the action and even time components.

Not everyone is as technical as you, and the fact of the matter remains that the vast majority of regular joes (and the jane or two that is in this space) need to have simple as fuck.. and prefer to have simple as fuck.

In recent times, I had been making some changes to my security and back up.. and while I was making such changes, I had to make considerable adjustments that kind of caused rethinking and re-jiggering of the whole previous plan(s)... almost like a shit-ton of make-shift work.... and surely, even causing me to consider some future changes that I am going to make again, "when I get a chance."

The shit continues to be complicated as fuck, even when putting time into various systems that are in place and even changes that take place from time to time, and sure, Shamir secret sharing is somewhat new too, at least in terms of some hardware wallets just starting to allow for that function.. and some people have older devices (and systems too, such as paper methods)

Yes... of course (well duh), our lil buddy gonna cross $11k, but BIG question seems to be "when?"

Also, is $11k even within any kind of realm of meaningful interest?.. In other words, reaching or breaching $11k to the upside seems to be currently within the realm of mostly noize.

Aren't we more interested in "when" BTC might be crossing its most recent medium term local high of $13,880?  Or getting close to such medium local term high in order to cause such $13,880 to be inevitably crossed?

I am actually thinking that BTC price have to get meaningfully above $13,880 (maybe even supra $15k, or maybe $14,250 would be enough?) in order for us to really get excited about such $13,880 being breached to the upside.

Yes.  Very nice reminder Karartma1... I may have seen that previously, but I am not sure, so it was good to watch it again.  I started to listen at a faster speed, but the content was so good that I had to slow it down to 1x (maybe it was just my brain is getting MOAR slower). 

In any event, a great youtube link to another moving presentation from Andreas that puts a lot of bitcoin paradigm shifting consideration matters into an interesting and relatively concise perspective in a bit over 30 minutes.

Thanks for that further elaboration..   Sometimes it can be so hard to keep up with all things going on, and also are we looking at the comparison of apples to apples or is there some other thing that might have been changed in the comparison data.

You are likely correct that removal of Square from this particular presentation would likely make the data more straight forward, since in this thread you seem to want to focus on the BTC activities (maybe acquisition, holding and liquidations) of Grayscale.

Also, previously, I did appreciate seeing the Square information, and even the comparison of the BTC acquisitions / holdings of Square and Grayscale.

I wonder if there is a thread or a location in which the BIG daddy HODLers are being compared and shared - and sure that data is likely all over the place - because there are BIG ones, but then those BIG ones change relative to one another too with the passage of time.. and also, sometimes it is quite difficult to know the actual number of coins that they are holding or acquiring and if their proclamations of their holdings and acquisitions are accurate also.

Even with Grayscale, I have seen questioning of the accuracy of their data but also if they might be able to do things behind the scenes by proclaiming that they are doing one thing while doing something else... Of course, some heavily regulated companies might be worried about getting caught doing those kinds of things - even though we know in traditional financial industries (or even non-financial industries that end up having fiduciary duties), on a likely too common basis, BIG companies get caught doing things that they were NOT supposed to be doing.

How come I am confused by your chart?

Are you saying that the "official numbers for the third quarter" have not been released yet, and that is why all of the third quarter boxes are NOT filled? 

Surely, you have not gotten the square numbers yet, which would go in some of the 3rd quarter boxes.

Maybe it is just me?

You are killing it... capital no capital.....  well surpassing a .21BTC threshold - a kind of ball hogging - which is surely more than the world average.. all in one buy.  1/100,000,000 of the total BTC supply.   

Further, I was becoming envious that nullius was getting so much of the word-counting attention, but I am glad that you reserved a wee bit attention for yours truly.   

Ironic seeing you here, jonoiv.... especially a bitter no coiner like ur lil selfie, and pity the fool like you who was actually watching the BTC price in mid-March 2020 and surely had opportunities to buy back some or all of the BIG stash (.5BTC-ish) of coins that you sold at $6k-ish in April/May 2019.

Strange also that you still have hopium in current times....

I will concede that your wishes for DOWN are not impossible, but the odds seem to be growing more and more against you with the passage of time, sorry to say.. that.. sucks to be uie.

Maybe you did not get the memo?

It has been pretty rare that bitcoin prices go below its 200-Week moving average.

In April/May 2019 when you sold your BTC stash at $6k, the 200-week moving average was just getting up to $3,600, so you did have some arguable chance of being able to buy those BTC back at or below that $6k selling price, but part of the difficulty that came thereafter was a continued movement of the BTC price up through the following months.. and BTC price just continued to be reluctant to fall, even below $7,000 for any kind of meaningful amount of time.

Surely, you got a lucky break in March 2020, but you did not appreciate such lucky break.

In March 2020 BTC's 200 week moving average was merely approaching $5,500, so when the BTC price actually dipped down below that $5,500 at various times for close to a whole week - with even close to an hour below $4,400 and a few minutes dipping to $3,850, you did have a chance to buy back because admittedly, you were watching the BTC price during that time... but part of the problema was that you were waiting for more and MOre and MOAR... and more did not come.

In recent times, BTC's prices are tending to gravitate up.

We also have an issue of the longest streak ever in BTC prices closing above 10k on the daily and over 65 days now.

Furthermore, BTC's 200 week moving average is starting to approach moving up nearly $100 per week, and as I type this post BTC's 200 week moving average is getting close to $6,800 - so becoming more and more difficult for you to buy back your sold coins for anything close to your $6k-ish sales price.

If you want to get out of your no coiner status and share with some of us coiners in the hedging and other likely upcoming profits that come with HODLing bitcoin, you may need to buy some or all of those sold BTC back at a higher price than $6k prices, and seriously, the truth of the matter is that you may even have difficulties getting those coins for 4 digit prices - though surely quite a bit better odds of getting 4 digit BTC prices than hoping for anything approaching $6k and moreso below $6k.

I am thinking also that you may be better served to change your already clown-ish looking avatar, soon.

Something like the below, might be an illustrative upgrade.. - a kind of bitter and sweet all rolled into one:

I am starting to suspect that many of us should be sticking our tongues out at V8, since he has mostly been in party pooper mode, recently.  

Can't have no fun round that guy, whether pet-related or otherwise.

I'll start:



Looking at you V8 #nohomo