Gox must be loving this. So much money in fees made today...

Just to prove us all wrong, someone put a market order for 95. This could start an early rally...  

Wash, rinse, repeat.

this.

Yet there is still little play downwards with very low volume going on.
I bet someone bought back in at 92-93 and now is shitting himself again. Wash, rinse, repeat.

Also everyone's fiat is still in the exchanges.
Expect rally on Sunday morning and subsequent dumps in few hours.
It will be a slaughtering game. The lucky ones will get more fiat for next round. Others will bleed. Wash, rinse, repeat.

bar the Gox fees.
Statistically if we all kept doing market orders in a totally random fashion, the price would be stable IF there were no fees.
With fees and same probability distribution --> the price drop is directly proportional to the volume traded.

yokosan, is that you?

Feels good man!

Spambots or manipulator bots?

DISCLAIMER: most of my coins are going to stay in cold storage until November 2013. The rest is my play money and I converted it into fiat, but it is still sitting on the exchanges. I hope I am emotionally detached enough to make sense here.

Hi guys,

I asked this question in the wall observer thread before, yet I don't recall getting an answer (or maybe I skipped through the thread and did not see it). I'd like to know what's your take on the reasoning below.

My assumptions:
1. Fiat value of bitcoin = mining cost + speculation value added.
2. Half of all mining power is ASIC as of today
3. Cost of power worldwide is approximated with average cost in US (0.15 USD/kW)
4. Average hardware breakeven of 3 months (90 days) is reasonable to many.

Using the mining profitability calculator at http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/
- Leave default values (BFL Single SC) (hmm I know Avalons are less efficient, not sure about Asicminer)
- Find the cost in USD per bitcoin that gives hardware breakeven of 90 days -->12 USD/BTC (this could be even a higher-than-reality estimate as it assumes everyone is paid list price while I think people owning mining farms got discounts).
- Double that value to factor-in all non-ASIC miners: 24 USD/BTC

So even if I were to be wrong by a factor 2 (say 48 USD/BTC), we are in a bear market now and the speculation value is currently approaching zero or negative.
And that's why I sold my play money coins. They are way overvalued - we all know that since January - just the bull inside me had gone delusional and I was expecting the bubble to pop at 440$ so I missed. Of course I have the intention to buy back at the right price - AND GET MORE COINS  

NB1: OK OK I know bitcoin has intrinsic value because of many reasons - that's why I have cold storage.
NB2: Before you hit me with a stick, please remember this is the SPECULATION forum, and that's what I am doing - speculating  
NB3: Oh come on please save me from the xkcd picture "my hobby:extrapolating". Be original with your memes, ffs

I unfortunately disagree.  an exchange is not much different from a bank. With the difference that it's backed by no legislation to protect us.
Our Gox balance (fiat, btc) is money that Gox owes us. We are, in fact, Gox creditors. Guess what happens if Gox goes bankrupt...

Assumptions:

1. users will want to take their savings the f*ck out, for fear their assets will be frozen otherwise.
2. Most users are, at best, verified status so they can't take out more than 100 btc/day or 10000 usd or eur /day. And not more than 50000 usd or eur per month anyway.

Assumption 2 will slow down the exodus of cash/coins.

Scenario 1: people try to get their cash out. Lots of fiat is removed from the market. Queues for withdrawals go up to the roof, and so do withdrawal delays. The removal of cash from the market causes utter price drops.

Scenario 2: people try to avoid delays in scenario 1 and try to get their btcs out to a different exchange. Price spiking in the long term due to the race to buy btcs and get the f out asap. (Bit like bitcoin-24 last days before official news of bank account being frozen).

It looks very fast to me... 

Ffs. Can't sleep when it's so bumpy to watch.

92.5

Me starts wondering if in the next months we'll ever see the low 20's, like double of when the bubble started.

On a side note: in a way this is too exciting to watch and so addictive I can't sleep.
(And neither can a certain Finnish guy here who's been up almost all night in his timezone - no offence, I'm just saying, uh...)

Indeed it is  
It'd be  nice if it had a way to represent depth on the vertical axis.

I was thinking more like landscape mapping with different colours.
Then the evolution of the walls over time would become a valley (or a canyon) and the price would be a river flowing in it.

rpietila, out of genuine curiosity and my lack of expertise, how does Fibonacci analysis take into account psychologic factors, like the investment "memory" in picture below (which IMHO looks a lot like the 2011 crash):



What's your take on that?

Looks beautiful to me...

You actually do, if everyone's sitting on the fence.

Just wait. Not today.

I believe that
1. Most miners have held their coins since January. Recent trends might make them want to dump the 100k coins produced since.
2. Not profitable for a western individual miner (exception made for Icelanders who have near-free energy) but in the short term very profitable for Chinese people with know-how or for businesses and loaded tycoons who can buy the chips from Avalon in batches of 10000 or build their own.

Sent from my phone sorry for spelling errors