It's been a while since I've updated this data and I'm far too lazy to overlay the price chart anymore. Most of us old-timers have the price chart inscribed on our retinas anyhoo! In short, ATHs don't interest me as much as bottoms... I do like me firm bottoms!  These charts indicate the number of days between the LAST time BTC dropped down to the specified price targets: doublings on the first chart, orders of magnitude (10x) on the second. For example, it took 248 days between the last time it was (hopefully ever) $32k and $16k. Or ~3.5 years between the $10k and $1k bottoms. The bars in red are rough (recent-average) forecasts. No way do I consider this TA, so feel free to offer your own prognostications! Will May of next year be the last time it ever drops below $65k? Sooner? When $100k bottom, 2024!?? Bottoms away! Mt Gox and Bitstamp data |
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https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/24/business/media/facebook-leak-frances-haugen.htmlMs. Haugen, in our phone interview, also resolved a minor mystery: whether she’s quietly relying on the financial support of Pierre Omidyar, the eBay co-founder whose groups started working with her in October, as Politico first reported.
The reality, she said, is that she has her own financial resources, and has accepted help from nonprofit groups backed by Mr. Omidyar only for travel and similar expenses.
“For the foreseeable future, I’m fine, because I did buy crypto at the right time,” she told me.
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Why do you think the Texas GOP bringing a bill to secede from the United States is a bad idea?
Good luck with that, we all know what happens to those that stand up to the man. They done it once already. Didn't work out so good. They will eat their own first. https://twitter.com/i/status/1337835480101122050 |
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Cognitive dissonance:
The state of having inconsistent thoughts, beliefs, or attitudes, especially as relating to behavioral decisions and attitude change.
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yeah, 20% LTV (relatively safe) is "just" 4.59%, but opportunity zones are a bit beyond my comfort level, but maybe I should just research it more, there is one within 5 min drive.
They're pretty widespread and varied and, yes, definitely require DYOR. https://opportunitydb.com/funds/ |
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EDIT2: Also, someone also questioned whether I'm black and libertarian, while having such a confusing stance on being comfortable paying the requisite long-term capital gains tax.
I can understand the confusion, but, while being one who believes in Liberatian ideologies about The United States, I'm also pragmatic to understand that we live in a system, and I need to abide by the rules.
Capital gains taxes are only requisite if you sell, Bob. Taking debt-free fully-collateralized loans, gifting to charity, setting up inheritance trusts, investing gains in opportunity zones, selling less than very generous NIIT cutoffs, moving to Puerto Rico, etc. etc. are all possibilities in the exact same rulebook, but result in more money going to family and causes we may actually identify with versus willy-nilly donating it to our government's system of black hole spending. None of this should be counter to Libertarian thinking, am I wrong? I understand that the sheer mental load of tax planning may be, well, taxing... But the system also provides an army of professionals to help with that, in the way of accountants, lawyers, and financial advisors. And they cost a helluva lot less than 23.8%. Some of them may even be friends and family. Libertarian even. With qualified help and fore-thought, you, too, could have your cake and eat it. And maybe even sleep. Nom nom. Zzzz. PS. Cheers to being a fellow POC raised with values by loving parents and working hard in life to overcome systemic racism. Although I happen to believe luck and appearance play more of a role than hard work in being "successful". |
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Or maybe, just maybe, there are just better hobbies out there for you, Bob? You’ve already won this game. Don’t just go back to bed, wake up and go win at another game. Buy a vineyard or something. I did. Without selling a single fracking sat.
Maybe, just maybe, I'm living life on my terms, having a blast, and know that I hold more BTC in reserve than I could reasonably spend in my lifetime. I'm not wired to dump more BTC than I need to attain specific goals. It turns out I oversold a bit this last round, and am now going slightly insane with part of the unallocated windfall. Also, I'm not wired to try to game the tax system. I don't like creating more work for myself (jumping through hoops in avoidance of paying tax). If dumping BTC at levels I'm comfortable with, and paying Uncle Sam their 23.8% of flesh is the cost, so be it. I have lots of flesh. Sue me. Time is the currency of wealth, my friend. Our days only grow shorter. Spend them wisely. And sleep. |
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I think you need another hobby, Bobby. Maybe an outdoor one, far far away from screens and buttons. I mean no disrespect, but I’ve always been somewhat perplexed by your trading activities. I have the opposite problem from you. I avoid paying any more taxes than I have to, so I’ve actually never sold. Borrowed against, yes, but never sold. When I die, my heirs will assume my date of death cost basis. My charities can ignore any cost basis while I’m still alive. A charitable remainder trust or even Opportunity Zone investments (of which there are many in Texas; Dallas even) could help defer, minimize, or eliminate capital gains taxes. And there’s always Puerto Rico calling. But still, I have never sold. Because I have faith that tomorrow’s price, at least historically, is more likely to be up than down, especially time-averaged. Sure, some years I have had to squint and extend my time averaging window by a LOT. But hey, patience has paid off so far, although I’ve only really been playing this game since triple digit days. You could have avoided paying NIIT by selling less, way less, while still enjoying a respectable income. You could have taken out loans against your corn and watched those loans shrink to relative dust as the price of corn inexorably marches on. The ironic part is that as an Obama-bashing, psilocybin tripping, gun-toting, supposedly black ultra-conservative, you have paid more to the good ol’ US of A government coffers in taxes than most people have even dreamed of investing in corn. Myself, an unapologetic progressive ugly libtard clean to the bone, is pulling every (legal) trick in the book to hang on to every damn sat I can. Even dying if I have to. I’ve even risked earning about 20% of my stash in interest over the years, the ultimate form of DCA. Not your keys, not your Bitcoin yeah yeah yeah, but crikey people, we’re already full-throttled on speculative risk, what’s a little custodial risk while we’re at it? I’ve never gone all in and randomly execute full balance withdrawals just so they never get too used to mine being theirs. Back in the day, some semi-respectable bearers doled out upwards of 15%! That’s still a decent 7.5% if you only went half in. Besides the irksome risk of total loss, the shittiest part of earning interest is admittedly the fecking taxes, but this is small price to pay for continuing to grow your corn, especially in down years. Plus the interest I’ve earned has been more than enough to compensate for the interest I owe on my corn-collateralized loans. While the time averaged price of Bitcoin marches on to the beat. I see you sleeplessly beating yourself up for selling low and buying higher. Maybe stop selling so much? Do you really have that much more faith in your conventional investments than corn? Do you really need that much more stinky fiat? Maybe you are just addicted to buying? Maybe you sell just to have the means to buy again? Even with 23.8% taxes, even with massive stimuli and inflation and government spending, you still sell into fiat, only to buy back less corn at higher prices at 4 in the morning? Why, Bob, why? Why did you sell so damn much in the first place? What are all these alluring... reasons? Have you somehow secretly lost faith, or perhaps never really trusted in the future of corn? Do Elon Musk and Warren Buffett whisper sweetly in your ear, “Buy TSLA, buy BRKA, give US your dirty fiat!” Maybe that sweet, sweet baby-faced Elon promises a better moonshot for you?  Or maybe you just love the smell of burnt popcorn and fiat in the morning? Or maybe, just maybe, there are just better hobbies out there for you, Bob? You’ve already won this game. Don’t just go back to bed, wake up and go win at another game. Buy a vineyard or something. I did. Without selling a single fracking sat. |
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Cryptic dreams abound...
Planning for my imminent
Boating accident
Sunday #haiku
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People said Covid-19 is under control in Australia. Stay save WO brothers.  Until there is pandemic all countries will have to be careful. 1000 daily infected for a 25 million country is not something catastrophic. Lets see how they did/will tackle the second wave. That might be true if infection rates were linear, but they're not. They're exponential. An illustration of the crushing power of exponential growth: Duckweed can double its surface area every day. If it takes 30 days to completely cover a pond, on which day is the pond half covered? Answer: Day twenty-nine.There are many parallels to the network effects of bitcoin in terms of adoption, hashrate, and sometimes price. |
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Breaking News: Bill Clinton went to Jeffrey Epstein's island with 2 young girls, Virginia Giuffre says.  Impeach him! |
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He seems to have lived his life on his own terms. That alone deserves respect.
Too bad he gave up on reality and started drinking the Kool-Aid. Happens to a lot of successful people, they think that just because they are successful at one thing they are experts in everything. There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there always has been. Anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means " my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge." Isaac Asimov (1980) |
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Bought a used truck many many years ago for $5K in btc, it would now be worth > $150K.
I've got a $1500 Instant Pot. Cooks great! Also got a $700 PS3 game. Still playing! Fricking purse.io. |
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This is bullshit. The fair price of bitcoin is $12,500.
SOMA.
Well look who the badger dragged in! Welcome back. Tip o' the hat, xhomer. Your millinery prowess is still very much appreciated! Love all the new additions. |
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This is bullshit. The fair price of bitcoin is $12,500.
SOMA.
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This twitter dude, recently quoted by smartcomet, has some other interesting charts: https://twitter.com/CL207Introducing Marketcap/GoogleTrend ratio.  Bitcoin is in the stealth phase of its bull run. Usually public interest do not pick up until the previous all-time high has been smashed.  Expanding pain.  This meme... Strikes again.. he said 9200 July...  This could actually be true. Someone pointed out to me that low 9000 is the maximum pain zone for both bulls and bears.  |
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