Hopefully, no one is in crypto.  That would be retarded.


You sound distracted.  Airdrops.  Who needs that?

I do agree with the idea of figuring out how to hold bitcoin privately (if you might be thinking that bitcoin might be relevant to discuss).  You did not even mention bitcoin in your post... yet anyhow an open source wallet is not bad to get to know, even though some guys might get started buying on an exchange first, and they might not know about wallets in the vary beginning, so they likely will have to learn about various wallets and perhaps make a choice in regards to which wallet to use.. .. regarding the various shitcoins.. that sounds distracting and perhaps better to discuss shitcoins in some other thread... even though there are some wallets that are bitcoin only and there are some other wallets that also include shitcoins, even though wallets might have more vulnerabilities if they are used for shitcoins, too.. .depending on which shitcoins..

I have frequently thought that it is better for a person to controllably lose his cool every once in a while, so that character does not work very well for a person who is always losing their cool

If you are constantly losing your cool, then when you lose your cool, it has no power.

So similarly with language, if you are person who never swears (or infrequenty swears) then it will be more effective when you do decide to swear if you can do it in a controllable way.

Guys get in battles frequently on the internet, and some of the battles can last for quite a long time.  Usually the guy who really loses his cool loses the fight - yet on the other hand, if someone just fakes losing his cool, then he is not really losing his cool.

Frequently it is possible to tell the difference when a guy has really lost his cool versus that he is just throwing out some expletives for the mere sake of emphasis (and/or provocation purposes).

Some of us will purposefully provoke the other side of the argument in order to contribute to their losing their cool. . which if you may recall the battle with BTCETFInvestor a week or two ago... when he flew on a few rages and then he seemed to have had enragedly deleted a large number of his then recent WO thread posts, he lost his argument and also he likely lost a lot of credibility at that time (whatever he had left).  There were several members in this thread who were taking his side of the argument prior to his having had lost his cool in such an obvious way.


 Any of us can lose our cool and/or go overboard in our interactions with other forum members, so surely this thread is more than 10 years old, so a person who is brand new to it or maybe had not been participating, he might need to give some time for guys to get used to him.. .and I am not even going to concede that guys are hostile to newbies unless the newbies come out playing hardball... and we are not in the physical world where someone can just come out swinging and knock out the BIGGEST guy in order to gain credibility.  I doubt it works so much like that, even though some newbies might come to the thread with a certain hostility like BTCETFInvestor did after he got caught with some questionable posts that just got worse and worse if he might have just apologized from the beginning and said that they were not his own pictures but that he had a HAM setup that was similar to that.


I am not sure if the goal is to bring people together unless we might share some ideas - maybe starting with bitcoin but also if there is some need try to stay somewhat substantive, so if someone comes and they are pushing some alternative agenda.. or maybe if they are battling with other participants for no reason or they are making shit up.. or they are not responding well to allegations that they made shit up, then those could be interpreted as somewhat hostile acts.


You are correct, and it is not good for a newbie to put himself in the middle of the scene.. even though many guys here love technical geeks such as ham radio operators or even guys who have other technical backgrounds and they might be able to share a few stories (that are not made up).


A bit of a surprise for sure.


There is usually a need for some endurance.. since even Jorge Stolfi had a bit of endurance for like a year or two... before he finally abandoned us.

And, there likely needs to be some substance behind the cute face too... at least a bit of substance.

Stofli was a bitcoin naysayer and even a no coiner hater, yet BTCETFInvestor claimed to love bitcoin, even though he claims to ONLY own bitcoin spot ETFs rather than actually owning bitcoin, which might put into question the extent that he knows bitcoin beyond his attempts to get price exposure.


Do you think that our odds for further down in September might be lessened if August had started out around $113k and ended slightly below $108k (something in the ballpark of a 4.5% drop)? 

Theoretically it could be easier for September to end up from $108k, even though sure we have right around 14% in total to make up for if we want to get to another ATH, to the extent another ATH is still in the cards for September, October or perhaps later this calendar year (referring to 2025)?, but yeah we should not necessarily start counting our chickens too prematurely.

I was thinking about other kinds of examples where saying fuck you goes wrong where the deliverer of the message was not in a solid of enough position to follow through with the intent of his message.  Fuck you JJG Thursdays seemed to go wrong for other reasons.

I used to love the idea of having my own day, even if there was a bit of negativism contained therein, but maybe I was either not cooperating enough or maybe I was cooperating too much.

That's a tough sample of an example.

What is the deal with not really being hated enough? Inability to get consensus around the message.

I am pretty sure that BTCETFInvestor would have loved to have had his own day like that.. . .yet he is a bit of an ambiguous character in this whole scene.. which almost causes me to speculate that he might be engaging in his various drama pieces on purpose.

For some reason, he wants and needs attention, yet at the same time, he does not know what to do with such attention when he gets it...

It might be the the line from "A few good men" .  

Jack Nicholson directing his statement at BTCETFInvestor:  "You know son.  You cannot handle the truth."    

Frequently, actions speak louder than words.


One of the difficulties can be to perceive the situation very well when caught in the emotion of it.

I have had some real world battles, and frequently, the opposition attempts to make the battle personal.. especially if they are on the losing end.

You do seem to be emotionally invested in this supposed battle more than many guys here, even though surely you have been stirring up some guys to potentially get emotional... .. but you seem to be showing your emotions way more than other guys here.


You are going to "teach us a lesson."  Oh my.. you sound dangerous .. hopefully you keep yourself restrained to internet posts.. .. but you might be starting to feel desperate, no?


I have my doubts about your version of events, even though you are still wanting to paint yourself as a victim in regards to your WO relationships up until now.  How can there be an "us" if you are perceiving our relationship as lopsided?


Down before up can be quite dangerous in times like these, especially if guys either sell or they hold back buying sufficiently/adequately based on such down before up ideas that may or may not end up playing out.


What you say makes sense, so at some point you might transition from accumulation and then into maintenance and then into some variation of liquidation.  I recommend sustainable withdrawal rather than depleting your principle.. and yeah of course, it would seem best at some point to graduate out of accumulation stage.. and I thought that you had previously mentioned 5 years, but that was a few years ago.. so it could be problematic to keep mentioning 5 years and never really get into a transition.

"We" historical bitcoiners are not any kind of monolithic force, and there are all kinds of things that we might want including growth of bitcoin, number go up and various financial freedoms, and each of us will prioritize these matters differently including not necessarily considering there may be trade-offs and challenges from one versus another, not that "we" can choose who comes to bitcoin even if "we" likely have been soliciting everyone to come to bitcoin which entails costs (and benefits)..

Whether bitcoin would have had still  gotten to $100k without Saylor/MSTR and/or shitcoins and/or various financialization products and/or without Larry Fink et al are stories that we cannot really know beyond speculating about it and hopefully not trying to act like we know it all merely because we have a mirror that we can look into and see what was back there.. we still have to speculate about the importance of causal relationships... and hey, of course, we can tell ourselves whatever story we like about where we are at, how we got here and where we might be going based on our assessments (which we might not even be correct about any of those assessments, but still think that we know it all merely because we have  been observing 10 years or more , which may well be 9.5 years longer than an overwhelming majority of others).


Personally, I have no problem with newcomers, yet it is not like we have to go out of the way to kiss their asses merely because they might have a fresh and/or different perspective... especially if they lie and seem to argue for the mere sake of it with their sensitivities and likely fantasy perceptions of self-importance.

Guys here don't even always agree on things and we have different points of view and different ways of presenting matters, and sometimes even bad manners, so there is even a certain level of tolerance for newbies to challenge our frameworks and/or presentation..

Ongoingly BTCETFInvestor seems to want to want to battle, and he may well be doing it on purpose to distract us from more important topics...  

There have been a few interesting contributions that he has made so far, but yeah, he also seems to be unable to let go of some of the personal angle and mostly focus on substance.. not that we are going to completely forget the personal angle,  but the personal angle is likely way less important than what BTCETFInvestor continues to make it out to be.


People may well not agree with Phil on a variety of topics, yet I doubt that any of us have any real suspicions that Phil is purposefully deploying fakety information.. and/or just making shit up and/or getting fotos from the web and presenting them as if they were his own, which seems to be your area of expertise, BTCETFInvestor.


I am sure many of us are not even close to as smart as you.

You have shown yourself to be quite intelligent, especially relative to several of us in this thread.  We even have some (at least one) self-proclaimed retard.  A bitcoin retard, at that.

Go figure?


What else could any of us want?  

A witnessing of the assertion of fuck you status in the wild - even though surely some guys don't really seem to understand the different levels of fuck you status and so sometimes they don't apply their own perception of contextual fuck you status in a very fitting way.

I recall some guys coming to this thread (and other parts of the forum) proclaiming that they had to go back to work because they pulled the fuck you lever too soon.. and surely many of us likely realize that there can be some real world costs (sometimes irreversible) when guys burn bridges and there is really no real justification for such course of action.

Young folks do that frequently and set their future path, when they may have all kinds of opportunities, but then they end up working dead end jobs until their death and become burdens on people who surround them and on the society in general.  It can be sad to come across these kinds of folks in the real world.

I know a person in my real life in which I am frequently saddened to meet up with him, and sometimes he even scares me since I sometimes consider that maybe I have told him too much, even though sometimes I will make some offers to help him to help himself... but he has a lot of pride too, which is also part of his problem, so it becomes more and more difficult for him to get higher paid positions and/or even to keep the manual labor positions that he continues to get into his late 50s and his health is not even doing that good, either... but yeah part of my point is that the earlier he was in his life he could have had potentially changed his trajectory.... but now it is getting to the point that he might not be able to work, even though he proclaims he will keep working until he keels over, not that he has a choice anyhow...or that he is likely to get lucky (like win the lottery - not that that would help) to potentially get himself out of his own problematic mindset that also has action-based follow throughs on a fairly regular basis.


The internet is real.

But, yeah, thick skin is important, including sometimes choosing ways to let certain topics lie, especially if they might not be going in your favor.. and you don't even necessarily need to admit that you were wrong.. even though sometimes it could be helpful to deal with reality rather than digging oneself in deeper and deeper and deeper, without there being any kind of reason to engage in such, absent just pride.. which surely nearly everyone has pride and/or an ego... and sometimes we have difficulties to control our own ego and/or pride.  I am not going to proclaim to be anything close to a saint in that regard.

By the way, Richy.. .. one of the angles of your advice seems to be that BTCETFInvestor had not figured out to put it into a reasonably functional context, with a certain amount of follow through.. Let's take your own fuck you example from 2017-ish, when you took your marbles away and said that you weren't going to play anymore...

It can be difficult to apply fuck you without consequences, and there can be a certain level of fall-out.. including that some folks just keep on bringing it up... so sure, it might kind of work to say fuck you once in a while, but there can be relatively long term consequences, that surely may not even be that important in the whole scheme of things.  Some folks can apply fuck you better than others in certain contexts, especially if they have shown some historical proof of work.

Remember Adamstgbit's fuck you?  He was quite respected around here, and he could still come back and receive a lot of praise, but at some point, he just went down the road of continuously saying fuck you, which may well could have had been a sign that he was getting too emotional, and I am sure that his choices had real world negative effects on him, even though you are proclaiming that the internet is not real.. but adams' way of dealing with his forum membership was real and quite greatly squandered.. at least from my perspective.

Of course, there are many other examples in which fuck you has gone wrong, and other instances where it ends up working itself out, especially in cases that members are able to and potentially have contributed over the years...so they might not be liked and/or correct in all areas, but if they have also made decently good forum contributions, other members may overlook their flaws and perhaps even some of their confrontational approach.  I have both going on in my own personality and my forum history.. and sometimes any of us might say things and/or do things that have negative consequences.. and sometimes we might not want to say what is our bottom line or how far we might be willing to argue certain points. .which may or may not end up hurting our reputation and/or how other members perceive us.

You seem to be describing a kind of noise area in which it hardly makes any sense to attempt to draw significance to BTC price moves within a noise area.

In other words, if we attempt to think more broadly such as is a new ATH going to come first or is $100k going to be tested.

Either could happen,  yet  it seems that any bouncing that we might be doing allong the way is either hardly important or it can be attempted to be described within a theory about whether up or down is more likely.

Another thing is that we likely remain in a bull market which causes up to be more likely than down (which is kind of the meaning of a bull market), so in order to get down rather than up, there needs to be some kind of compelling reason that overcomes the upward thesis.. whether it ends up being merely a short term correction within a bull market or a transition out of the bull market.


Depends on where you actually are at rather than where you merely perceive yourself to be.


These are not all or nothing arrangements, so even if there are trends in one direction or another there is still quite a bit of variety happening within bitcoin holders and the trends of holders to spend and/or to hold.. and yeah fewer circulating coins has its own effects on price that is not necessarily a bad thing and does not inhibit future abilities to use coins, yet if no one is ready, willing or able to transact with others de to physical or psychological incapacitations then that would take away from aspects of bitcoin power and value proposition in the peer to peer sense..

And, not only are institutions, governments and/or status quo rich folks hodling bitcoin, there are certain trends to try to disinincentivize and inhibit ways that individuals can hold their bitcoin and directly transact.. which surely is a power of bitcoin and does not even necessarily need everyone transacting directly on it to still empower folks in that direction.. so powers that be are likely still quite scared of the ability of individuals to transact anywhere in the world and with anyone without getting prior permission and/or sometimes difficulties to monitor specifics of those transactions.  Scary, but ongoingly powerful.


These kinds of stories are frequently common in bitcoinlandia, where the proposition is framed as if it were inevitable but it might not even have greater than 49% odds of happening anywhere close to the downity proposition... but sure, it might be helpful to get a few more folks to sell their coins at or near the bottom of a local correction or alternatively to help to stimulate some further correction... perhaps? perhaps?


Something is wrong with your dates and your BTC prices.

It would have had been better to buy BTC at any time in 2015 or any time in late 2022 (after June 2022), yet surely bitcoin is not as exciting as lugging around 10k-ish pounds of copper/wiring.

But yeah sure you are free to have fun and keep yourself busy in various ways, and sometimes you are even providing a good service to the world.  We cannot have everyone getting richity rich by sitting on their butts and merely accumulating and/or hodling the cornz.  

One of the advantages of asymmetric information for many of us longer term bitcoiners is that we ended up profiting quite stupendously in several ways, and yeah maybe it is unfair and maybe we have gotten lucky in several regards, yet it also can be quit gruelling and frustration provoking to both keep building and HODLing bitcoin while putting up with various uncertainties, too.. since even having asymmetric information, it is not a slam dunk outcome.. since we also need to secure our coins and don't put them with risky third parties.


Poor widdo ting-i-lie.

By the way, you are going to have a hard time getting ahead with both a victim mentality and also an ongoing desire to get folks here to accept your various ongoing wrong frameworks and seemingly persistent lack of humility.


Don't let the door hit you on the way out, if we were to be so lucky in these here parts that you would actually leave, since it seems that you are not even trying to get along with  your varlious predecessors..

And, yeah, predecessors do not have more rank or more voice than you, but it still might be helpful that you might figure out some ways to take some hints.. whether they be subtle or not so subtle.. since I doubt that any of us are out to get you and you are kind of wearing on folks who tend to have a lot of patience (even if it might seem to your naive lil newbie perspective that they don't have patience and/or sufficient tolerance for arrogant newbies like ur lil selfie).

We are talking about bitcoin here in this thread, so I am not sure why you consider mentioning "a coin" as if you were on topic, which you are being vague and you might be referring to shitcoins rather than bitcoin, and if you were referring to bitcoin, then why didn't you just say bitcoin?

Maybe you don't know the difference between bitcoin and shitcoins, and so you think that they are all the same thing?

Hopefully you can figure out how to learn about bitcoin first so that you don't get mislead into some crap and then start talking like you know about crypto when you don't even know what bitcoin is.

Of course, you have to figure out how you want to balance out matters for yourself. 

There are many folks who blindly suggest that emergency funds should be 3-6 months, yet they really seem to be talking about back up funds rather than emergency funds, since emergency funds don't tend to be as flexible as reserve funds.. ..

So sometimes it can be difficult to get into too much strictness when it comes to how guys might categorize or distinguish levels of funds that they might want to try to keep no matter what, and so for example, at what point would you stop buying bitcoin, perhaps once your back up funds get to a certain level you are realizing that you are getting down to the last of your funds, and so you don't want to get that low and you know that buying bitcoin is not an emergency that you can use such funds, but you could use reserve funds to buy bitcoin.. so you would have some kind of a line in your head regarding how much funds are the ones that you replace right away if they get used up.. ..

The more cash you are holding also, then the more it is not working for you... and so even you, I_Anime, even if it took you a bit of time after your forum registration to get serious about your bitcoin accumulation, we know that if you had started accumulating bitcoin as aggressively as you could have had in late 2022, then you could have had built up a decent sized bitcoin stash by now, and since BTC prices have gone up more than 5x since late 2022, there may be ways that you could end up considering that you don't need as much cash because a portion of your bitcoin is also serving as your emergency funds.. and yeah, it is not good to use your bitcoin as your emergency funds, but as you build wealth you have way more options regarding what to do and you might have portions of value in all kinds of place that you would be willing to draw upon.

And, surely if bitcoin goes into a long drawdown then in those times you would prever to be more in cash rather thna bitcoin, yet there can be a bit of an advocacy here to not be trading with your bitcoin, yet you can still weigh your priorities by how much cash you are holding versus how much bitcoin and those ratios might change the more and more bitcoin that you hold, you might come to differing kinds of conclusions regarding how you are holding various kinds of value including various kinds of cash.


It could take a guy a year or two just to get his emergency funds up to 3 months of cash, especially if a guy might have only started out with a couple of weeks of cash, and then maybe if he is ONLY investing/saving around 10% of his income, then if he has to split that 10% between investing into bitcoin and having some extra cash (back up funds), then that is ONLY 5% to each.. and it surely does not need to be exactly equal, since we can decide how fast to build each and recognize the tradeoffs that we are making in regards to differing kinds of scenarios that could happen while we are building up where w are comfortable being and our comfort might change both as we build up our investment (and our back up funds) and as we go through some ups and downs in the market and figure out how we are going to treat those ups and downs.  Yeah, sure we could just buy the same amount of dollars in BTC every week no matter what, but we can also choose how much of cash cushion that we want to let ride as well and if we are making extra BTC purchases or if we are purposefully holding back some funds... and yeah, many times, I argue that beginners should not be thinking about these price and/or profits matters, yet the more and more we invest in bitcoin and we build to strengthen our cashflow management systems/practices (and back up funds) the more we begin to be informed by what we had built in the context of the rest of our 9 individual factors. ..


Guys could end up getting themselves into pickles based on their management of their cashflows and perhaps their choices to allocate more into bitcoin rather than cash, but if they end up making some mistakes or even suffering from some bigger issues of loss of income and/or increases in expenses that last way longer than expected or they are more severe than expected, then they could end up being kind of fucked for their failure to adequately prepare... and surely some younger folks will blindly take risks without even realizing that they are taking risks, and even some older folks will get too greedy, and then they fail to adequately prepare for scenarios that were well within foreseeable territories.

Each of us has to pay the consequences if we end up overdoing our aggressiveness, and surely sometimes if we overdo our aggressiveness, our mistake might not be really big, and then other times we might end up making quite large mistakes with cascading negative consequences that come from our bad choices and lack of preparedness.  I am not going to say that I know the answer for sure regarding how each of us might strike our balances and how much might be too much in one direction or another, sometimes we can experiment with a certain level of building our bitcoin and our emergency funds,  and then see how that level makes us feel during certain periods that our cashflow might be changing or the bitcoin price might be changing, and sometimes we might realize that we have to hold more cash or that we are keeping too much money in cash.. so we might not realize right away, yet if we are trying to do our best under the circumstances, then surely we have room to maneuver in either direction, so sometimes, we would have to go greatly overboard in one direction or another before we end up greatly recking ourselves if we end up making mistakes.


Of course, I was making a slightly different point, which is if we are investing by DCA through 4-10 years or longer, then some of our earlier bitcoin purchases would have been more than 4 years old by the time we are 4 years into investing into bitcoin, yet if we keep investing then each time we buy more bitcoin, then those newer purchases should be made in consideration of planning for 4-10 years or longer for any of the new purchases.

so maybe by tthe time we are in bitcoin for 10 years we are going to have had invested in bitcoin over those 10 years and we have bitcoin from 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 etc.. so then the older purchases have already gotten past their 4 years or longer , but the newer ones have not.

Surely how you treat your bitcoin investment is going to be different once you had already been investing for 10 years and hopefully you had been improving your bitcoin management and your cashflow management through that time, and you might even have a variety of ways of calculating how to use your bitcoin and how you treat them based on when you bought them.  Of course, you also might have ways of calculating your whole holdings too as compared with your individual tranches of bitcoin, depending on when you might have bought different tranches, whether you were buying weekly or if you had a certain amount of irregularity.

Think about the guy who bought every week for 10 years, he would have had 52 purchases per year and 520 purchases over 10 years.. but yeah, sometimes the records also might not be so clear, so maybe some coins are kept in cold storage, yet some other coins are kept on exchanges and perhaps some other coins you might keep in a way that you can transact with them (such as putting some of them in a lightning network wallet).

It's not so much about quantity, but instead that you seemed to have had been proclaiming to change your accumulation approach based on our current dip situation.

Within reason I can understand that a person who is still accumulating may try to time the buys, so for example, if he is buying every week, then he tries to catch the dips for each of the weeks.

On the other hand, if the guy who is still accumulating is holding back value to buy on dips and not buying regularly, then that seems another story.

I understand that some guys do not have great cashflows, so they might not have a lot of money to work with, yet there shouldn't necessarily be an assumption that any guy is particularly rich even if some guys might have had concluded that they had gotten through their accumulation status at earlier times.. so in that regard, I am trying to just respond to your statement.. and maybe I find it a bit problematic if 1) guys might still be accumulating bitcoin regularly but stating that they are buying more on dips, and/or 2) some of these same guys might be buying now with expectations that they are going to sell if the BTC price doubles... since they are thinking about buying back cheaper

But even if we go with your forum registration date and we might presume that you are getting close to six years accumulating bitcoin, there could have had been times that you were able to accumulate a lot and then hang onto your coins rather than selling them with expectations to buy back cheaper...

Even if you had been accumulating bitcoin for nearly the past 6 years at $50 per week, you might have had invested around $7k into bitcoin by now and you might have around 0.2 BTC.. which would not be a bad place to be, but steill seems that more bitcoin might need to continue to be accumulated.. and yeah, I cannot see any justification for selling even though there may be preferences to attempt to be aggressive now. and then maybe less aggressive if BTC prices were to get to $200k or more within the coming 3-6 months?.. .. It is kind of difficult to say, since having a BTC price run in this calendar year seems like it could be possible, but then it starts to feel strange to be expecting the run might continue in 2026 - well that is if any current run continues to feel like it is somewhat suppressed.


I know you do seem to think about these matters differently from me, even though of course you are the one who has to live with the consequences and you seem to believe that buying and selling at the same time is a healthy way to treat your BTC accumulation journey..


Doesn't that sound a bit strange to you?  You are selling while are still accumulating.

And, sure maybe that will work for you since you are planning to sell with an expectation of being able to buy back more with the same money that you received from selling it.

Personally, I don't consider that to be a good strategy for guys who are still accumulating, even though I understand that guys do it and attempt to do it, and some of them are able to do o.k. with such a strategy and others would have had been better off to just stay focused on BTC accumulation.

You are taking chances, but it is possible that it could work out for you.  Perhaps.

Yet at the same time, if a guy is still in BTC accumulation phase, he is more assured to continue to increase his stash if he just stays focused on buying and perhaps to find money from other places when he wants to buy things.. . but yeah opinions will differ regarding these kinds of matters regarding the hows and the amounts to play with when trying to catch waves.


That part is good... but you are ONLY a temporary grower, since you never saw a 60% price increase that did not get you sufficiently excited to nearly blow your whole wadd (referring to selling whatever gains you had gotten).. which is part of the reason that maybe you should be grilled like WatChe (or was it another member?)?

Here is grilling question. During this cycle (within the next 3-9 months-ish):  "how much of your BTC stash that you have today (and maybe still have at $120k?) do you expect to still have when (if?) the BTC price reaches $200k, $250k?  $300k?  $400k? Would you have any of  your stack left if the BTC price were to reach $500k?

I already gave my answer... which was that I probably would still have close to 97% of my stash if the BTC price reaches $500k in the coming 3-9 months, yet at the same time, I am not sure if I should be proud of my own situation, since I probably have to figure out ways to try to sell more if the BTC price were to go up to such price levels this cycle.

Each of us should have some ballpark ideas about where our stash would be under such scenarios that could happen, and in the past 9-ish months, I have changed my quantities at least 3 times, and I still have ONLY gotten to about 3% sales all the way up to $500k.. and I am not really proud of that even though that seems to be how my system is mostly working out.


That is a pretty strong assertion, which I think that many folks are thinking that MSTR has pretty good chances of being added to the S&P 500 this week.. so yeah, it would be good to know your sources for your theory that "everybody knows," if any.

Leonard Cohen probably has better sources than you (RIP Leonard)


It is good to have an alternative theory, yet I had not heard that miners are selling.

I have heard  that OGs are selling. which is even a questionable theory why OGs would need to sell so many coins.  I do like to the paper coins theory personally, though I don't really have any evidence for that.. yet sometimes momentum can just be exacerbated by FUD to get newer entrance scared to buy and/or to sell what they got.. and the FUD will work at least for a while.. and in that regard, momentum can draw further momentum.. for a while..


Well, that part is correct.  We have ONLY had about 14% drop so far, so such a drop does not even seem very BIG in the whole scheme of things... yet every cycle we have decently sized drops from time to time, and guys do end up getting emotional about the drops, so there is nothing new in regards to some guys seeming to overreact.. and get all worked up about it and proclaim bitcoin is dead. the bull market is over..  blah blah blah.


That is true.

MSTR seems to be converting into more of a financial (BTC specific - which might not even be a "recognized" category yet?) company rather than an IT company.


This makes more sense as compared to your initial "everybody knows" claim. I am sure guys are not very confidence about your claims in recent times, for "reasons."


Oh gawd... 

You want to come back and play hard ball?  That did not fare too well for you last time.

But hey whatever, try again. I thought everyone is being pretty nice to you, considering your recent history.. or even lack of history, since you seemed to have taken liberties to delete a good number of your recent titillating (if "we" might be so generous?) posts in this thread.


Deflect much?

Last I checked a person who provides seemingly contrary claims should provide some evidence for those claims rather than just making such claims and seeing what happens.

Seems to be similar to your earlier issue, except your earlier issue involved making shit up and post it as if it were your own.... still not quite a settled matter (or any kind of slam dunk in your favor since you also chose to destroy evidence (if I might be so bold? hahahahaha).


I get the impression that BTCETFInvestor does not consider himself any kind of a newbie in the traditional sense of newbie whose actions can be reviewed, since he likely exists in such a fantasy way as to perceive himself as a wrongly persecuted victim... which is part of the reason that he still seems to have a chip on his shoulder rather than apologizing to several of us (and perhaps the whole thread?) for his earlier conduct.

Again that word.  Crypto.

How the fuck do guys not know? or they just do it on purpose?

Either way doesn't come off as acceptable from the perspective of this peep.


Gosh Phil.

Don't you consider that you should not let yourself get to such a situation in which you are overly prepared for down rather than up?.

I hate to sound patronizing, but I have to ask if you have actually learned from your most recent experience?   which involves selling too much too soon and/or failing refusing to buy at earlier times?

Which is it?  Emphasize buying more all of the time or emphasize buying the dip?

And, which kinds of investors are talking about?

How is this emphasis on buying the dip going to work for you?  Give some specifics?


You are talking about long term as a whole cycle?


I am not going to proclaim that profit is irrelevant, and I can understand that if you buy 0.5 BTC for an average of $110k (that would be $65k), that would be better than buying 0.433 BTC at an average of $150k (that would also be $65k).

At the same time, if we have a guy who might be investing over 4-10 years or longer, there may also be some advantages to be ongoingly buying rather than fucking around waiting for dips that might not happen.. so a guy who buys bitcoin regularly, persistently, consistently and perhaps somewhat aggressively, he might end up putting more money into bitcoin, and he may well have more bitcoin, but they ended up costing him more than the guy who was frequently strategizing dips that may or may not happen.

Of course, we can frame our hypotheticals however we like and you can still tell me that your guy who is waiting to buy more aggressively on dips is still regularly buying, then maybe it is not a big deal, yet I have my doubts about how well these ideas will work - meaning the ones that involve supposedly buying more aggressively on dips, especially for newbies who may well hardly have any clues about what is a dip and what is not a dip.  There are already plenty of guys who have spent plenty of years in bitcoin who have hardly any clue if we are in a dip or not and if the dip is going to keep dipping.  I would largely include myself in such camp, which maybe is why I tend to be so critical of guys proclaiming to have it all figured out regarding how supposedly the best strategy for accumulating bitcoin is to be buying more aggressively on dips.

You have been registered on the forum since January 2025, and so did you start buying bitcoin before that? or did you just start buying bitcoin in January 2025?  Maybe you can explain how your experience had been working in that regard? and how you might think that whatever you did might be generally applicable, or are you telling us how to accumulate bitcoin based on what you should have had done rather than what you actually did?


I largely agree with your sentiment, and surely there can be somethings that guys might splurge on, yet be otherwise frugal..

And, surely when we are in our earliest of stages of our investment building there tends to be more value for frugality.. and so yeah, it could make a pretty damned BIG difference for a guy who figures out a way to invest 25% of his income into bitcoin as compared with the guy who merely does 10%. 

The guy investing 25% would have had taken 4 years to invest a whole year's income into bitcoin, and the guy with a mere 10% investment rate is going to take 10 years to invest a whole year's income into bitcoin.

I am not criticizing 10% since I think that is good, yet I am largely trying to assert that being able to figure out ways to be more aggressive within the income that you are able to accumulate, then real BIG differences can come from the progress.. and for a lot of folks it is not going to be easy to go from 10% to 25%, and some folks might not be able to do it.. .  For example, a single person who is ONLY supporting himself, would likely have a lot of latitude in regards to how much he is suffering and/or if he might be ruining his social life with his extremeness in frugality as compared with someone with a family who might have to get consent from folks who are dependent on his providing a certain level of income.  Sometimes a spouse could be completely on board to run a tight budget and to invest high percentages of the budget into bitcoin.


I get your point about the set it and forget it, even though I personally had preferred to execute my weekly buys manually... .. but yeah you can really be correct about the pay off that might not be realized with so much passage of time.

On another note, I have frequently considered that manually employing DCA buys provides a way to attempt to be more aggressive with buys and to push limits, yet even a person who has a weekly budget that might allow for $50 to $150 weekly bitcoin buys, he may well just let $75 stand and then monitor if any of his accounts are needing to be adjusted or to make additional buys from time to time if he has extra money besides his $75 weekly buys.  I also am a little skeptical the waay that exchanges batch their DCAs to take place at the same time, so there likely could be some front running of those batched buys on a daily basis that exchanges likely skim fractions of a percent each time.. which adds up over years... even though in the whole scheme of things it might not really be that big of a deal since there are advantages to set it and forget it.


The last I checked, there were 52 weeks in a year, so $10 per week would be $5,200 in 10 years.  Sure a minor detail but an important one to consider for guys who are investing weekly rather than monthly. 

There are 4.33 weeks in a month on average.  Let's try to not be overly sloppy with our counting, even though sometimes we round off, and surely a guy who started out with $10 per week might be investing $100 per week by the time 10 years pass... but we still will use round-about ballpark ideas.. but there is a difference if a guy might be budgeting to buy bitcoin every week and maybe adding to his emergency fund every week, then if he actually does $10 per week into bitcoin and then another $5 per week into his emergency fund, then on average that would be $43.33 + $21.65 = $64.98 for the month rather than $60.., even though in February it would end up being closer to $60 rather than $65.

By the way, many of us may have had jobs that pay every 2 weeks, yet several of our bills might be monthly, so many times we can feel good about those months that we are paid three times rather than two times.. Twice a year they happen for folks who are paid every two weeks.


I agreed with everything you said CageMabok, until you said that there was value in learning about shitcoins.  Hopefully you are careful in that.. since it tends to be important to put shitcoins into a box in which their is a presumption that they are shit, so if they are going to prove that they are anything other than shit, then there is going to be a relatively high bar...

Sure, sometimes out of curiosity there can be reasons that some of us might get lured into looking at some aspect of shitcoins, yet the more important thing is keeping our eye on the prize and learning various bitcoin-related matters first and then also looking at shitcoins in light of bitcoin in order to try to figure out what they are trying to accomplish in various ways that they might be similar and/or different and many times just having some ideas that proof of stake is retarded should be able to help us to eliminate almost all of the shitcoins, and their need to have a token rather than building and/or linking to bitcoin can also help us to continue with our skepticism in regards to who they are trying to enrich with such token issuance and frequently obscurity and/or convolution regarding their token(s). 

I am not suggesting to be blind to shitcoins, yet there are also ONLY so many hours in the day, too... and bitcoin is a bit of a handful in and/of itself, including the various ways that bitcoin has to interact with various shitcoins and various third-party custodians and attempting to sort out ongoing questions/concerns that any of us might have in regards to whether governments, institutions, financial institutions, and/or status quo rich folks are our friends or our enemies in regards to these matters.  Bitcoin is largely for anyone and everyone, yet at the same time attacks upon it might not always be clear, even divisions from within bitcoin circes likely has plenty to potentially pay attention to rather than getting distracted into shitcoin nonsense, too.


I am not opposed to lump sum, but many times people do not have lump sum, except once in a while.

yet if you are suggesting a strategy in which you invest lump sum and then you wait for dips and just let your lump sum grow, so then you are creating lump sums by waiting, I have my doubts about that kind of a strategy being effective, even it it might help to make people feel good, but if the BTC price goes shooting up and you are just letting your cash pile up, then you might have reluctance about not catching the unexpected up-spurt int he BTC price, which surely has happened fairly frequently in bitcoin's history and I see no reason that it is going to stop happening.

Welcome to the pushups thread and pushups - whether you choose to do them every day or not.  I think that many of us started out with small amounts of daily pushups and worked our way up to larger amounts of daily pushups.

They still hurt for me after 573 days of doing them, and there have been plenty of times that I did not want to do them and/or that I thought that I was getting pains in various parts of my body that did not even seem to be directly connected with pushups, but what else could it be?

At the same time, there are still several ways that I can measure my improvements, and I think that my muscle mass is probably improving.. for sure my strength and abilities to do pushups has improved quite a bit over the past year and a half.

It is pretty well known that as we get passed a certain age (perhaps mid-40s and perhaps older for some) it becomes more and more difficult to actually add muscle mass..

So there still can be some advantages in doing pushups on a regular basis (whether daily or not) for guys starting to get into their elder years (and maybe even better than cardio in some ways) in order to prevent the loss of muscle mass.. which can likely help with the performance of quite a few daily activities whether being able to be somewhat self-sufficient and/or just to not be too dependent on others in certain areas..

You are communicating your ideas in a very confusing way SPIDERMAN008.

I think the punchline is that you are saying that poor people need to DCA, which is likely the correct answer but not really for the reasons given.. since you are trying to suggest that poor people cannot afford to lose money - even though we know that there is absolutely no guarantee in bitcoin, and each of us, whether rich or poor should be investing with money that we can afford to lose.

If we cannot afford to lose the money then maybe we don't have enough discretionary income to be investing into bitcoin.

When we invest into bitcoin, then maybe we try to do everything as best as we can, and we lock up money for 4-10 years or longer.. and in order to not panic we should be ongoignly buying bitcoin within our budget, and maybe the BTC price drops 80% or more, and hopefully we keep on investing, even though it is scary to go through such volatility.  Hopefully we are studying bitcoin as we continue to invest into it, whether we are investing $10 per week or some other amount.  We study to see if there might be any reason that we might discontinue.. .and yeah, maybe it is more painful for a poor person to come up withe $10 per week, and they have to deal with their circumstances... since yep there are some folks who might have $2k per week of discretionary income per week,  and they decide to invest $500 per week, and they really are detached from the $500 per week because it is extra money and they have plenty more money to spend every week on whatever they like, even if they might be taking 25% of their discretionary income to invest in bitcoin, and maybe the poor person is taking close to 100% of his discretionary income and the poor person is struggling to put $10 per week into bitcoin.

The poor person is likely going to have to be more organized and make sure to build an emergency fund, and the rich person might already have thousands of dollars in the bank in the event that there is a shortage of funds any week or any months, he also has some other investments, and he could easily get a loan from a bank or maybe mom/dad or his uncle will spot him $20k in the event that he really runs into trouble with his cashflows.  The poor person does not have such resources and/or options, so he is working on trying to get to a place to have more options, so that perhaps after 20 years investing into bitcoin at $10 per week he had invested $520 per year and $5,200 after 10 years and $10,400 after 20 years, and surely it could also be that the poor person might have been able to improve his discretionary income by increasing his income and decreasing his expenses, yet he still has to deal with what he has got and he might not be in a position to improve his discretionary income.


Many of us consider that it is not necessarily a good idea (especially for poor people) to try to change his level of aggressiveness based on perceptions of a BTC price dip.

But, yeah, of course, people can do whatever they want, even dumb things, yet it seems way better for regular people to be striving towards making sure that their cashflow management is in good order and to try to figure out some way to invest into bitcoin regularly (such as weekly if possible), persistently, consistently, ongoingly and perhaps as aggressive as they can within their budget... so if they are poor maybe they ONLY have around $250 per month of income and if they are frugal maybe they can squeeze out $10 per week for bitcoin investing... there might be some weeks that are more difficult than others, and the person just has to figure out how much to prioritize investing in bitcoin versuss maybe just keeping some of that money in cash since maybe they have some irregularities and they cannot necessarily buy every week and they have to see how much money they have left at the end of the month prior to being able to make their (periodic) BTC investment.


I just went back and looked. It appears that the offensive/shilling post was deleted by a moderator (or maybe by the poster himself?). 

That post was pretty blatant in regards to its shilling of a shitcoin and disrespectful for not even attempting to relate their post to the topic of the thread, yet sometimes some of those kinds of posts are allowed to stay...

If there is a pattern of that kind of posting from newbie members, then sometimes they will get banned or suspended.

I was wondering how you were going to deal with the back dates of data in the tables.. Think about it, you have 15 tables..

And, as far as the dollar/bitcoin pairing of the daily trade-weighted average, the updated results were all contained in one posting and all of the dollar amounts between place 47 and 54.

At the same time, we filled in $112k during that no daily update period....

Looks good.  

I think that bitcoinity.org was down around 4-ish days.

Maybe LoyceV did not need to provide any link within his post, since every single forum post (including this one) has the "Report to moderator" link contained within it at the lower right corner.  All you have to do is look at the right lower corner of any post.

For my own entertainment purposes, I will look at the threads that you linked later.

It is not easy to give suggestions that blanketedly apply to all circumstances, like a one stop approach that covers all scenarios, since there tends to be quite a bit of importance in keeping some level of cash on hand, there also may be circumstances in which it pays off for guys to keep more of their value in bitcoin and to use their bitcoin as an emergency fund, so maybe they only keep 1-2 months in cash rather than a full three months or more, yet the surely run the risk that if bitcoin dips for extended periods of time and they are experiencing extended periods of time situations in which their expenses are exceeding their income, then they are having to make up for the money they lost from having to tap into their bitcoin.. yet one of the reasons that very rich people do not need to think about emergency funds is because they have all kinds of assets to choose from, and so even if their monthly expenditures are $20k to $40k or more, they may well have a variety of asset that they could draw upon in order to cover those monthly expenses even if one or two of their cashflow sources were to dry up.

So relatively poor person has to figure out how to balance based on his own circumstances, and if he is brand new to bitcoin, maybe he has some debt and some irregularities in his income and/or his expenses, yet maybe he is only in the practice of holding 2-6 weeks of back up funds, so as he starts to build his bitcoin investment, it might take him several weeks until the size of his bitcoin investment is the same as his back up funds, and then as he starts to grow his bitcoin investment and his back up funds, he might be comfortable growing his bitcoin investment 2x or even 3x faster than his back up funds.

So let's say that the guy had monthly expenses that are around $1k and a monthly income of around $1,700, so he tends to have around $500 per month that he could invest into bitcoin, and when he got into bitcoin, he already had $800 in back up funds, and so maybe he wanted to grow the backup funds to be the same as the bitcoin investment, so maybe it takes him 8 weeks to get the amount he invested into bitcoin to be the same as his back up funds. 

After 8 weeks both his back up funds and his amount invested into bitcoin are each $800.. and sure bitcoin prices might have had gone up and down during that time, but he keeps investing into bitcoin, and so he would rather grow his bitcoin rather than his back up fund, and he understands the risk that if he runs out of back up funds for any reason, then the next thing that he is going to tap into is his bitcoin, but he recognizes the risk and he decides that from here on out, he is going to invest $80 per week into bitcoin and $20 per week into his back up funds, and if there is ever any reason that he has to tap into his back up funds, then he will try to replace them more rapidly, and so if he is targeting to get his back up funds up to at least 3 months of his expenses, it may well take him 110 weeks to get his back up funds up to that $3k level (which is $2,200/20) - which is right around 2 years, and by the time he gets his back up funds up to $3k, maybe he will have to consider if his expenses are sill $1k per month or have they changed.  Of course, his income and his bitcoin stash may have changed too.. since he had invested right around $9,600 into bitcoin during that time (which is $80 x 110 = $8,800 + his initial $800).  maybe bitcoin is performing well and his investment is up or maybe it is not, but he has found a system that is acceptable for him, and he can make adjustments in the event that his income might change from time to time or maybe if he gets bonuses from time to time or maybe he suffers from extra expenses from time to time.

I recall when I first got started in bitcoin, there were like 3 years that portions of my bitcoin holdings were in the negative, so even though there were coins that I bought at higher prices like $1,100, and there were coins that I bought as low as $200, I knew that I needed to try to keep a kind of balance that was comfortable for me since I did nt want to be forced to sell any bitcoin, even though maybe I could sell some of them that were in profits, if push were to come to shove.. so I tended to always make sure that I had various other places that I could draw upon during periods that my expenses were more than my income.  But there were also some times that I might have received some extra cash inflow, and I might have had taken some chances to put a little higher proportion into the bitcoin than I put into the back up funds... so there sometimes are chances that guys are willing to take that have risks if they are not able to keep their cashflow coming in or they run out of back up funds to cover all of their expenses. 


That is a good example because some kinds of choices that we have are not easy, and we might have some income generating assets, like a cow, but then sometimes the income generating assets are also generating more expenses than their income, so they become difficult to maintain, or we might have to get through periods in which the cashflow is not good, and perhaps at some point, we run out of resources and we are left with difficult choices, perhaps choices that we did not want to have to take.

The thing with bitcoin is that it is not likely to produce any income until a couple of cycles or longer down the road, so any additional money we put into bitcoin, we should be expecting to mostly see locked up for 4-10 years or longer.. which is part of the justification to have other sources of back up funds and/or to maintain enough of a cash cushion so that we do not necessarily need to sell any of our bitcoin. and sure it might not be the end of the world if we do have to sell a little bit if we make some mistakes as long as the whole matter ends up sufficiently balancing out that we had recognized our risk and we considered that whatever we were doing with our balancing of back up funds and our continuing to invest into bitcoin is not getting into territories of overdoing it and getting ourselves into a pickle.

I recall around 4-ish months in early 2015 where I was not able to buy much if any bitcoin, even though the BTC price was very low during that time.  I had bought bitcoin throughout 2014 when BTC prices were higher and then I also bought some more in late 2015 after I got through my cashflow difficulties, yet there was right around 4 months that I was not able to buy any bitcoin, but I did not sell any either.. So there is a bit of an accomplishment in not selling bitcoin during the time that the BTC price was down, yet if there might have been some circumstances (such as if I had either gotten into a car accident or some similar matter, and I might have had been forced to sell some of my bitcoin, which sometimes we might end up in a situation where we are depleting the funds that we have available, and if we experience further loss of income or greater expenses, we might be forced into an even more difficult situation depending perhaps on how we had been dealing with cashflow and/or investment choice matters up until that point in time).

 
Sometimes we might mix up terms, and frequently I suggest that back up funds is a generic term that covers both emergency funds and reserve funds.

And sometimes we might treat our emergency funds like reserve funds, even though emergency funds should be a quantity of funds that we will not tap into and/or we won't let our back up funds get any lower than that amount, absent an actual emergency.  So we likely are no longer buying bitcoin by the time that we are either tapping into our emergency funds and/or if we have depleted our reserve funds.

Frequently we suggest to build up our emergency funds to 3 months of our expenses, yet if we are new to bitcoin and we are still building our emergency funds, we may well end up treating our emergency funds like reserve funds until they get to an adequate size, such as 3 months of our expenses.

Usually we would not consider buying bitcoin as an emergency, so if all of our back up funds are getting to an uncomfortable level then we stop buying bitcoin until the emergency funds are up to enough of a size, and maybe we have to figure out ways to build back up our emergency funds as soon as possible if we had run into a situation in which we ended up depleting them.

We might not necessarily agree what to call them or how to treat them or under what conditions they might be triggered, yet any guy who has an income that generates discretionary income, he would spend from his discretionary income before tapping into any back up funds and if he has any extra discretionary income, then he can choose to consume, invest or to put that extra discretionary income into his back up funds.

You get yourself in trouble Wind_FURY because you tend to speak in absolutes and then you end up waffling on what you had said.

Earlier you were saying that you were waiting for long term cycle dips before you buy bitcoin, yet not too many people are on board with that kind of an approach, and perhaps not even you are believing in that kind of an approach since if you really think about the matter, you were already employing your approach to bitcoin in 2019-ish when you started this thread and when you more aggressively started to buy bitcoin, even though you were registered on the forum for 3 years earlier, but you were not buying at that time, you were waiting.. and sure you got the post 2017 dip, but you probably would have had been better off to be buying from the start in mid to late 2016 when bitcoin prices were between $400 and $900 rather than waiting until the post 2017 correction, when bitcoin prices barely got below (or stayed below) $4k for very long.. So you end up buying 5x to 15x higher, even though you rationalize that you were buying on the dip.

Then recently you get it in your head that bitcoin is going up a lot in the near future, so you are back to your April 2019 mentality to buy every dip because in your head, the BTC price is going up... .. which sure it might be true.. but guys still might ONLY be so limited in how aggressive that they can become, since maybe some guys have been following this thread and/or various DCA practices for 1-3 year or maybe even longer, and they have already figured out that there is quite a bit of advantage to already ongoingly employing aggressive buying and there is no need to change their level of aggressiveness even more merely because there had been a 10% to 14% dip in BTC's price.

So then in more recent times you are getting excited again about our various dips, and you are proclaiming that guys should increase their level of aggressiveness to buy the dip and you even put a timeline on when the dip will happen and when it will recover.. which did not seem to go to well with guys here, so then you start to revert back to saying that bitcoin prices are going up sooner or later (even if your timeline ends up being incorrect), so sure you might be correct, yet you are still wanting to argue that guys can rest assured to increase their level of aggressiveness to buy the dip.  Maybe you cannot help yourself? You get excited, and sure you likely are not incorrect that the odds for up seem greater than the odds for down, yet we still don't know, and so it makes it difficult for any of us to be doubling and/or tripling down on these current dips rather than trying to protect ourselves in terms of our own finances and psychology - things within our control.

It seems that the pushback that you are getting are both in regards to the specifics of your earlier timeline for dips and recovery and then also newbie guys seem to be less receptive to the idea of significantly changing their level of aggressiveness based on both uncertainties regarding the dip but also that changing their aggressiveness levels might otherwise screw up their cashflow management practices and/or systems.  So it seems to be somewhat counter productive for guys to be changing aggressiveness levels based on BTC price moves (and speculation) rather than perhaps changing aggressiveness by knowable, such as how strong their cashflow management systems are.


Usually open source wallets are better than wallets controlled by exchanges.  You are hardly getting any advantage in putting your coins on an exchange wallet as compared with an exchange, since exchange wallets are most likely closed source so they could have back doors for monitoring and potentially access to contents.  Each of us needs to try to figure out our level of privacy and security and surely if we are barely starting out, we might not need to spend a lot of time figuring out wallet matters, yet the more value we build up into bitcoin the more we likely need to improve our privacy and our security.

There are a variety of websites that could help and sure some of them are lying or not very well informed about the topic:

I think that the bitcoin hole website is a good website that lists mostly open sourced hardware and software wallets and shows a lot of the features that mostly bitcoin wallets have.

https://thebitcoinhole.com/hardware-wallets

There is also athena alpha that rates some of the top bitcoin hardware wallets (even though some of the hardware wallets also include shitcoins):  https://www.athena-alpha.com/crypto-wallets/compare/#


There are many normal people who might spend 30-40 years or longer working to build up a retirement and to hope to get to fuck you status so that they don't have to work anymore, but they can still maintain their prior standard of living - or perhaps either to improve it or not to greatly decrease in their standard of living.

So it can be quite difficult to figure out where to put one's value, and even though bitcoin is not guaranteed to do better than other places, there surely seem to continue to be good odds that guys who are investing into bitcoin may  well have decently good chances to reduce their time to get to fuck you status in half or perhaps less than half - such as 15-20 years or less.. which surely would be a better thing, if it is possible and if guys don't screw it up by being overly risky in their approach to bitcoin.

Of course, in bitcoin's earlier years, there have been guys who had been able to reach fuck you status in less than 10 years, yet it may well be more difficult to accomplish in less than 10 years for guys starting out from the beginning and without any other investments, absent some abilities to either frontload their investment or being able to invest on the more aggressive side, such as greater than 25% of their yearly income without recking themselves.  .. so frequently my own suggestion revolves around guys trying to invest as aggressively as they can without recking themselves, and it is up to them to figure out where that line is, since sometimes if they cross too far over the line there might not be recovery (or at least recovery might be extremely painful).

I have several technical home monitoring things that I attempt to do remotely when I travel, yet if I have people enterring then I might turn some of the privacy things off.

Nonetheless, I have a few technical set ups, yet either I am not sophisticated enough, or I don't spend enough time focusing on certain kinds of issues that I want to resolve to be able to handle them remotely or to be able to figure them out... and some of the stuff is kind of bitcoin related, but I don't sufficiently understand how to do some things remotely, like running a server and/or some of the mining connections remotely (though the miners are just the small ones like BitAxes and variations of small potatoes).

Another thing that is less technical is a heater yet with a smart thermostat that I have. I have three smart thermostats that go to different locations (different kinds of heaters).  On some of them, sometimes I have to restart the heater when it is not working, so on one of them, I set up a camera so I can see whether the pilot light is on, and if the temperature is below the threshold, I have to manually restart the HVAC system with a separate smart switch that I have set up, which usually will get it to work after one or two tries.  At the same time, there have been some times where my smart thermostat had lost its internet connection, which usually is enough to go and manually (and in person) restart the thermostat, and if I am not there, then I have to have someone else enter and restart the thermostat, since I have not set up an ability to remotely restart the thermostat.

I have had times where the restart of the thermostat does not work in order to get the thermostat back online (connected with me), so I have to go back and physically be present so that I can reinstall the thermostat software from my phone and my remote app.. which kind of causes me to wonder if maybe  I should just buy another brand of smart thermostat from another company if I cannot figure out how to get the thermostat to remotely get back online and then I have to make a trip to get the thermostat back online so that I can see what it is doing.  One good thing, so far is that the thermostat will continue to work at whatever its last settings were.  I just become no longer able to remotely adjust it.

I have some other remote access and monitoring like devices, such as door locks, motion sensors, door open/closed sensors, temperature/humidity sensors, lights (usually hooked up to smart plugs, but some are hooked to smart switches), cameras, and surely these various products are not without difficulties to keep going... Several use batteries that could run out of charge.


You have ONLY been registered on the forum for less than 2 years, so I have difficulties imagining that you would have had reached over accumulation status yet, unless you seriously front-loaded your bitcoin investment in 2023 when you first registered on the forum.

Let me do a quick look and see if you had invested around 2.5 years of your target income level in September/October 2023, then perhaps that could be justification to stop regularly accumulating BTC - since the price largely went shooting up from the end of October 2023.  That would be enough to achieve your target as long as you would be starting to employ your withdrawals in about late 2027.

It seems that if you had invested around 5x of your annual target income in that September to October 2023 period, then you would have been currently within grasp of being able to start cashing out at your annual target rate within  order to be within grasp of starting to be able to cash out at your annual targeted rate within about 3-ish months.

By the way, the 200-WMA is greatly underperforming where I thought it would be by now, so I had the 200-WMA marked to be at nearly $69k by the end of November, yet how it has been performing over the past 3 months, in the remaining 3 months it is on track to ONLY reach right around $56.5k by the end of November which largely could be problematic if the BTC price wants to come back and retest the 200-WMA in some kind of a timely and cyclical manner, which I cannot see happening unless the blow off top becomes much greater than how it has been doing recently..

Maybe if we could at least get a blow off top of supra $150k and maybe close to or higher than $180k might help these matters to pull the 200-WMA up higher.  I thought that I had been being reasonably conservative in my 200-WMA projection, yet it seems that for this most recent 6 months, as I type this post, the 200-WMA is merely on-target to go up around 19% (38% annualized) rather than the 44% (88% annualized) that I had projected for this current 6-month period that we are in the midst of.

Of course, we have to attempt to roll with the punches and let the 200-WMA land where-ever it is going to land, and I am not personally projecting the 200-WMA into the future with an expectation of wishing BTC's performance but instead trying to attempt to project its future based on its historical performance.. which yeah, surely I understand that is not any kind of precise science, but it still would be nice to get somewhere in the ballpark of correct.

September to December are slow months for who?  In bitcoin?  or other places of relevance?

And why do the months matter, exactly?


You think that we need to assess bitcoin strategic reserves and also things going on in shitcoins in terms of how we might assess what may or may not happen with bitcoin?

I understand tht there was some ambiguity in this topic in terms of governments involving themselves in bitcoin reserves, and then it seems to have had expanded to talking about bitcoin treasuries being adopted by companies, and so then now you want to suggest that shitcoin pumping, and sure there are shitcoin strategic reserves being proposed by various companies as well, and perhaps infiltrating into government  discussions and quasi-governmental actions to the extent that Trump seems to be using various shitcoins as as kind of grift. which overlaps with various stable coin legislation to the extent that any of us can keep track and to try to keep these matters sorted.. since even though some bitcoiners are wanting to keep bitcoin distinct from various shitcoin and/or stable coin activities, there does seem to be quite a bit of overlap, even though it would be hard to imagine that various shitcoin treasuries and/or even goverments getting involved in shitcoins would not end up resulting in their own ways of recking themselves.



I guess right around 216 BTC if they lump sum buy right now, but if they spread out their buys they might not be able to get 200 BTC.

That is right around the amount that Luke Dashjr had said that he lost from his personal wallet, even though he had been screaming poverty, with 200 BTC does seem like a good stash for 10 or more individuals to split up.


I had seen that table previously, and I had not realized how conservative the numbers are as compared with my latest fuck you chart shows the 200-WMA to be $883k by the end of 2037, and the above table only shows about $369k for spot price numbers..

Their numbers start out more bullish than mine (but then they are using spot price rather than the 200-WMA, which tends to be a bottom price), and then my numbers catch up with theirs around 2031 and thereafter my numbers greatly surpass their numbers.

I surely will agree that it is not easy to determine something like BTC prices 12 years into the future, yet I bet my numbers are going to be closer (especially once we get out to the end of their table in 2037) though I am guessing within mine too.

You are correct to point out the issue ZeroVinsonN since each of us should be striving to set up our finances and our psychology in such a way that we are not feeling urgent about money, and we should be attempting to put cash cushions between our bitcoin and our weekly/monthly expenses so that we may well not need to sell any bitcoin for 4-10 years or longer after we buy them.  

Once we establish a large enough bitcoin stash, then perhaps at that point, we might start to sell bitcoin from time to time, yet if we build our bitcoin stash, it would most likely take longer than 4 years before we might start to feel that we might be in a position to start to be able to sell some bitcoin, even if we might have had gotten to overaccumulation (and/or front loaded our bitcoin investment) earlier in the process.

It may well be that Youngrebel is thinking about bitcoin as a trade rather than as an investment, so bitcoin becomes more scary when it is considered in that kind of a way - especially since bitcoin tends to be so volatile, which is another one of the reasons that frequently we need to build a cushion of funds between our regular money for expenses and our bitcoin that hopefully we are building until it gets to a large enough status that we might start to feel comfortable selling some of it from time to time.  

Guys who consider bitcoin as a trade might never get to status of feeling comfortable with their bitcoin because they are ongoingly considering when to get in and/or when to get out.


I reported that cited post for being off topic and not even attempting to relate the information in the post to bitcoin, yet I am not sure if the mods will delete the post or not..

Usually if a member is shilling something off topic, it is not good to quote them (to give them more eyes on their post), even if you are stating opposition to their post.