A little update on my Lightning Network venture.
My node has been running close to 3 years now. During that time, I've routed over 500 btc.
Here's some stats for the past 90 days
For the past 30 days I'm 0.009 btc in profits and in 90 days it's at 0.067 btc.
So is it fair to say n 1000 days and 500 routed btc made you over 0.200?..
IF SO IS it close to 0.5 btc
That would be around 1/1000 of 500 coins
While 0.2 would be 1/2500 of 500 coins.
I know you have an active ln node
Well, not really. The past 6 months have been far more active than the first two years.
F*ck it, full disclosure. Here's the stats of the node's lifetime
Total profit is 0.162 btc, as you can see in the graph. However, as you can see, most of the profit is made in the past 6 months. LN activity is growing.
Persistence pays off.
Thanks for running your node. All said, you may well had done more than $20k in labor (as your hobby), plus the capital you put up with equipment and with BTC.
Are you planning on selling on the way up between $150k and $200k and maybe higher? Will you still have BTC if the price goes to $300k? I anticipate that I will have more than 95% of the same stash that I have now if BTC prices go to $300k..and maybe that is not a good idea...
I've changed my mindset when it came to my investments, I've divided my DCA amount into two parts, one that I sell for profit and other that I hold for long term no matter what happens. Let's assume I'm doing DCA of $500 or $1000 into Bitcoin during the dips then instead of doing it in one part I'm doing it in two parts, one with which I take profits and the other for long term holding. For me those dips are just opportunity to add more Bitcoin to my stash, I'm not someone who sells his holdings when price goes under a correction. So even if Bitcoin goes all the way back to even $60k I won't be selling my holdings. But surely when market gets very bullish and makes a new ATH then at that time I do sell the 2nd part which's meant to take profits in order to be able to accumulate more.
Of course, you can ultimately do whatever you like. While 50% is better than what a lot of guys do, I still would suggest that if you consider yourself to still be in your accumulation phase that you should put more into your locked up funds, perhaps 75% or more. I personally suggest that guys do not fuck around with any more than 10% of their bitcoin stash, but yeah it would be hard to get you to move that far and if you have been having a positive experience with what you are doing, then perhaps you have figured out some kind of a selling ratio that actually doesn't cause all of your "trading stash" to be sold.
Maybe I should redirect my question?
If BTC goes to $300k, then how much of your trading stash will you still have? I understand that if you are getting paid on an ongoing basis, then any new money comes in 50% towards the investing side and 50% to the trading side.. so perhaps my question is that are your sell orders staggered enough that you are not overly selling too much too soon, since with bitcoin we have to assume that the overall slope of its price curve is upwards even though in the short term it can sometimes be difficult to measure, so we should be attempting to take that into account when we are selling (a relatively high percent 50%) one of the best (if not the best) of assets ever known to man.
When I referred to majority I was generally referring to the weak hands who can't hold their coins when they see market going down. Those weak hands in panic start selling their Bitcoin during the dips while the ones who understand the market buy those dips and hold their coins for better long term profits. Although, I'm firm supporter of long term holding but still it makes sense to sell some part of the holdings when profit is good and enjoy our life with the profit that we get. Life is short and so is youth, in old age even if we own $1 Billion or more than that we still won't get our youth and the enjoyment of life that we can in our young days.
One thing is figuring out some target and only selling after reaching the target or maybe ONLY modestly selling from time to time prior to reaching the target. If you are starting to sell prior to reaching your target, the you are likely selling out of one hand and buying from the other hand... So that part of selling while you are still accumulating does not make as much sense to me, even though surely it could make sense from time to time as long as such early (and premature) selling is not happening too regularly.
Aside from those, I believe at current market condition it makes sense to accumulate when Bitcoin dips below $100k, because anyone who has firm belief on Bitcoin will most probably find that as the best opportunity of his/her life because this will be most probably the last dip of this cycle and after it most probably there'll come another phase of bullishness and during that phase I believe Bitcoin could somehow cross $150k mark, most possibly it can.
I usually like to consider newbies, in their first cycle or so of being in bitcoin are accumulating all the time and no matter what and no matter the price, unless you are a newbie who is able to frontload your investment.. yet if you are just a regular investor who is mostly just investing off the discretionary income from your regular income, then you are likely going to spend at least a whole cycle and maybe even up to two cycles to build up a meaningful stash... Once your stash is meaningful, then you might start to be more strategic with your BTC buys and focus more on dips rather than ongoing regular buying.
I would not know exactly what amount of BTC accumulation constitutes meaningful... Perhaps a year or two of your salary or your expenses or perhaps your target income level... Surely even investing a year of your income into bitcoin, could take a whole cycle even if a person were to invest 25% a year in bitcoin, andx many people are not able to be that aggressive, but sure if you can, you would get to a year of your income invested into bitcoin after 4 years and then whatever appreciation or not that bitcoin had done during that time... and sure, it is possible that you might be in a good position at that point to start to focus on dips rather than ongoing buying.
However, most of us know that crypto market is quite unpredictable and anything can happen anytime. In that case the ones who've bought during the $80k's or during $70k's should most probably hold their coins for long term, at least for a decade or two.
I don't give too many shits about crypto, yet if we are talking about bitcoin, the unpredictability still has a framework of the fractal of the cycle, and also bitcoin is likely ongoingly in s-curve exponential adoption, so even if there is some short term senses of all over the place moves in the BTC price, we likely still understand that bitcoin's price is largely directionally upwards.. so yeah, we might not want to fuck around with the short term plays because the price can go all over the place on the short term and in unexpected directions too, yet we can still maintain a somewhat safe presumption that bitcoin's price dynamics is directionally heading upwards.. especially 4-10 years or longer...
and as you suggested we most likely would be considering more than 10 years as our timeline unless we were to have age and/or health considerations that might contribute to our not being able to plan for a 10 year or longer timeline, then we could be o.k. with 4 years or longer.. and otherwise, if a person cannot commit to 4 years, then they are trading (gambling) rather than investing, and I personally don't recommend trading bitcoin even though surely people do that... they can do what they like, even if I don't agree.
As a Bitcoin investors only those ones win who hold their coins for long term not the ones who don't hold their accumulation. I'm going to hold 50% of my Bitcoin stash for at least 10 to 20 years and most probably throughout all those years I'll be increasing the accumulation by doing DCA+DIP buying strategy.
Sure. A lot of that sounds good, even though 50% seems whimpy and imprudent on the investment side.. but hey it is better than zero, but you are probably going to do worse on the trade side - and you are diluting your investment side by allowing so much of your BTC to be fucked around on the trade side.. but hey in the end, you can do whatever you like, and then see how it turns out.. and we all know that turning back the clock is not possible once 4-10 years pass and you see your underperformance on the trade side.. yet sure, you have to live with whatever consequences that you bring to yourself with your allocation choices.
Let's assume I'm doing DCA of $500 or $1000 into Bitcoin during the dips...
Imho, you shall either use "buy the dips' or "DCA" methodology.
I am not sure whether the hybrid approach works.
DCA typically means that you buy daily, weekly, bi-weekly or monthly (as a paycheck or cash flow comes depending on how you get paid).
Well, I've modified the strategy according to my needs, instead of doing DCA buying each week, I save that money in stable coins and when market faces a major correction or dip and that happens every month, sometimes every week, I buy those dips.
As a trader I also open short trades when new ATH is formed because I've noticed that after a new ATH market somehow needs a correction. But, I open those short trades with 1x leverage and thus there's not much risk of losing those trades.
After being part of the market for many years I've formed my own strategies which have given me some good profits but of course there's no alternative of DCA. In the long run the ones who do DCA + Holding will make way more profit, but sometimes it's okay to have short term profits as well.
I usually suggest that newbies start with DCA only, yet after they start to get comfortable, they can maybe start to hold back something like 20% for buying the dip.. So they would DCA with the other 80% with their weekly or whatever buys and then hold back 20% for dips... so then week after week goes buy and the dip fund is growing in size, but yeah it takes 4 weeks for the dip fund to equal the same as the weekly buy, and sure, maybe 26 weeks (half a year) goes buy without any significant dip. Anyhow you can choose how much you hold back and how much dip you need to start buying.
And surely the longer you are in you might want to supplement with buying the dip.
Another thing that sometimes happens is that guys might come across extra cash every once in a while, so whenever a guy comes up with extra cash, then he would want to consider all three strategies of 1) DCA, 2) buy right away) and/or 3) buy the dip. He does not have to employ them all, even though all three should be considered.
Let's say that a guy had been buying bitcoin for 2 years with DCA at $100 per week, so over two years, he would have had invested $10,400 into bitcoin, yet if three times a year he gets some kind of bonus income that could be anywhere between $1k and $3k, then he can consider how to treat that money each time it comes in with consideration of the three categories and also considering how long he had already been buying bitcoin and also considering that fact that he is already DCAing $100 every week.
Of course, he could purposefully create a lump sum amount by reallocating from some other investments, or maybe he sells his house or car or maybe he inherits some money... so those should trigger the consideration of all three categories, and yeah, maybe I have been presuming that the guy had already built up 3 months of his expenses as his emergency funds, and he might have another 1-3 months of expenses for reserve funds that can be used for various purposes incluing buying the dip or maybe even saving to take the wife on a vacation or saving up for a bicycle for a kid or for a new cellphone/computer.
There is nothing wrong with having multiple kinds of funds and strategies, even though I am not much of a fan of trading with any more than 10% of your bitcoin stash, but hey whatver guys love gambling, and they can do what they like.
Let's assume I'm doing DCA of $500 or $1000 into Bitcoin during the dips...
Imho, you shall either use "buy the dips' or "DCA" methodology.
I am not sure whether the hybrid approach works.
DCA typically means that you buy daily, weekly, bi-weekly or monthly (as a paycheck or cash flow comes depending on how you get paid).
The hybrid method does work! I'm using it but the allocation of my income is 80% "DCA" and 20% "for buy the dips". So far, I have not missed out on anything, and I feel accomplished.
By the way if a guy is already weekly buying of BTC, then he is already likely to catch many dips, and he can also manually execute his weekly buys to potentially increase his chances of getting some level of dip, even though it can sometimes be difficult to completely get the dip.. and in the long run, it may not matter too much about whether guys are buying dips or not as long as they are regularly buying they may well end up in a better position rather than trying to figure out dips and maybe lapsing into waiting strategies rather than buying strategies.. but sure, yeah, guys gotta figure out these balances for themselves in terms of how much of one thing or another might help them to feel more comfortable with what they are doing.. and yeah, it does feel good to make your weekly $100 buy at $113k rather than at $116k, even though maybe it is not going to make a whole hell of a lot of difference in the whole scheme of things beyond just making you feel a little better for a short period of time.
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