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Question: How far will this leg take us?
$110K - 9 (8.3%)
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$130K - 17 (15.7%)
$140K - 9 (8.3%)
$150K - 19 (17.6%)
$160K - 2 (1.9%)
$170K+ - 33 (30.6%)
Total Voters: 108

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26837769 times)
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August 31, 2025, 02:25:48 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1), d_eddie (1), yslyv (1)

MSTR will definitely NOT be joining the S&P500 this session. This is public information

Can you link a public source?

Josh Mandell thinks otherwise:

https://www.fxstreet.com/news/will-microstrategy-join-the-sp-500-big-bets-bigger-risks-202508260825

I am kid of torn: on one hand, some moves MSTR made suggests that they think they might be included.
On the other hand, a company is rarely included almost immediately after qualifying.

I didn't place any bets in either direction recently, but I already have a small MSTR long and a larger STRC long.

 According to Cointelegraph, the snub is already in - https://cointelegraph.com/news/robinhood-strategy-shares-dip-miss-sp500-inclusion

Jesse Coghlan Aug 26, 2025
  "Shares in trading platform Robinhood Markets and Bitcoin treasury firm Strategy fell in after-hours trading on Monday amid a broader market dip after missing out on being included in the S&P 500..."

 My understanding is that the DJI and S&P will not make surprise announcements of inclusion at meetings but will issue a press release with the details and date of the inclusion though so... I don't know if that can be considered a snub.  Maybe Mr. BTCETFInvestor has other information though.
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August 31, 2025, 02:28:07 AM

MSTR will definitely NOT be joining the S&P500 this session. This is public information
Can you link a public source?
The official S&P Dow Jones Indices press release from August 25, 2025

Good: an official statement that does not explicitly deny inclusion, but implies or suggests no inclusion. An even better reply would have included a link.

https://press.spglobal.com/2025-08-25-Interactive-Brokers-Group-Set-to-Join-S-P-500,-Talen-Energy-to-Join-S-P-MidCap-400-and-Kinetik-Holdings-to-Join-S-P-SmallCap-600


Looks like you were able to dig it out yourself which was available a few days ago!  Why be an asshole because I didn't provide you a link?  You expect others to do research for you? 
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August 31, 2025, 02:28:47 AM

MSTR will definitely NOT be joining the S&P500 this session. This is public information
Can you link a public source?
The official S&P Dow Jones Indices press release from August 25, 2025

Good: an official statement that does not explicitly deny inclusion, but implies or suggests no inclusion. An even better reply would have included a link.

https://press.spglobal.com/2025-08-25-Interactive-Brokers-Group-Set-to-Join-S-P-500,-Talen-Energy-to-Join-S-P-MidCap-400-and-Kinetik-Holdings-to-Join-S-P-SmallCap-600


 So at least they won't be joining the S&P500 before Sept. 4th (monday being a holiday so no time for a press release)
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August 31, 2025, 02:30:49 AM

MSTR will definitely NOT be joining the S&P500 this session. This is public information

Can you link a public source?

Josh Mandell thinks otherwise:

https://www.fxstreet.com/news/will-microstrategy-join-the-sp-500-big-bets-bigger-risks-202508260825

I am kid of torn: on one hand, some moves MSTR made suggests that they think they might be included.
On the other hand, a company is rarely included almost immediately after qualifying.

I didn't place any bets in either direction recently, but I already have a small MSTR long and a larger STRC long.

 According to Cointelegraph, the snub is already in - https://cointelegraph.com/news/robinhood-strategy-shares-dip-miss-sp500-inclusion

Jesse Coghlan Aug 26, 2025
  "Shares in trading platform Robinhood Markets and Bitcoin treasury firm Strategy fell in after-hours trading on Monday amid a broader market dip after missing out on being included in the S&P 500..."

 My understanding is that the DJI and S&P will not make surprise announcements of inclusion at meetings but will issue a press release with the details and date of the inclusion though so... I don't know if that can be considered a snub.  Maybe Mr. BTCETFInvestor has other information though.

d_eddie  couldn't be bothered to go find it!  Roll Eyes 
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August 31, 2025, 02:50:01 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

MSTR will definitely NOT be joining the S&P500 this session. This is public information
Can you link a public source?
The official S&P Dow Jones Indices press release from August 25, 2025

Good: an official statement that does not explicitly deny inclusion, but implies or suggests no inclusion. An even better reply would have included a link.

https://press.spglobal.com/2025-08-25-Interactive-Brokers-Group-Set-to-Join-S-P-500,-Talen-Energy-to-Join-S-P-MidCap-400-and-Kinetik-Holdings-to-Join-S-P-SmallCap-600


Oh, but I assumed everyone already knew that.

This does not prevent MSTR (or HOOD) from entering SP500 at all because IBKR entered because Walgreens went out of public markets (got privatized).
These kind of changes can happen literally ANY time.
When we were discussing Sep 5, I assumed that we were talking about quarterly re-balancing.
I am still saying that there is NO public info about that.
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August 31, 2025, 02:52:08 AM

MSTR will definitely NOT be joining the S&P500 this session. This is public information
Can you link a public source?
The official S&P Dow Jones Indices press release from August 25, 2025

Good: an official statement that does not explicitly deny inclusion, but implies or suggests no inclusion. An even better reply would have included a link.

https://press.spglobal.com/2025-08-25-Interactive-Brokers-Group-Set-to-Join-S-P-500,-Talen-Energy-to-Join-S-P-MidCap-400-and-Kinetik-Holdings-to-Join-S-P-SmallCap-600


Looks like you were able to dig it out yourself which was available a few days ago!  Why be an asshole because I didn't provide you a link?  You expect others to do research for you? 

A bit harsh for a newbie.
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August 31, 2025, 03:01:15 AM


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August 31, 2025, 03:17:32 AM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (3), Hueristic (1)

MSTR will definitely NOT be joining the S&P500 this session. This is public information

Can you link a public source?

Josh Mandell thinks otherwise:

https://www.fxstreet.com/news/will-microstrategy-join-the-sp-500-big-bets-bigger-risks-202508260825

I am kid of torn: on one hand, some moves MSTR made suggests that they think they might be included.
On the other hand, a company is rarely included almost immediately after qualifying.

I didn't place any bets in either direction recently, but I already have a small MSTR long and a larger STRC long.

 According to Cointelegraph, the snub is already in - https://cointelegraph.com/news/robinhood-strategy-shares-dip-miss-sp500-inclusion

Jesse Coghlan Aug 26, 2025
  "Shares in trading platform Robinhood Markets and Bitcoin treasury firm Strategy fell in after-hours trading on Monday amid a broader market dip after missing out on being included in the S&P 500..."

 My understanding is that the DJI and S&P will not make surprise announcements of inclusion at meetings but will issue a press release with the details and date of the inclusion though so... I don't know if that can be considered a snub.  Maybe Mr. BTCETFInvestor has other information though.

d_eddie  couldn't be bothered to go find it!  Roll Eyes 

 d_eddie is very intelligent and very exacting when it comes to language.  I have a feeling he was prompting you for precision and clarity but without the benefit of non-verbal cues in this text-based world, misunderstandings occur.  I don't want to tell you how to feel about anyone in particular in this forum but while we may have our quirks, we're all pretty good shits in the grand scheme of things.
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August 31, 2025, 04:01:14 AM


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August 31, 2025, 06:01:15 AM


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August 31, 2025, 07:39:07 AM
Merited by d_eddie (1), AlcoHoDL (1)

It's normal for Bitcoin to go up and down. I won't get away with FUD on this dip, I am accumulating rigorously for 200k.
You have been holding back some money for this?
The signature campaigns, they help people like me to keep buying whether it's bearish or bullish.
Not everyone is as rich as you are JJG. The 65$ per week from campaign means lot to me.

It's not so much about quantity, but instead that you seemed to have had been proclaiming to change your accumulation approach based on our current dip situation.

Within reason I can understand that a person who is still accumulating may try to time the buys, so for example, if he is buying every week, then he tries to catch the dips for each of the weeks.

On the other hand, if the guy who is still accumulating is holding back value to buy on dips and not buying regularly, then that seems another story.

I understand that some guys do not have great cashflows, so they might not have a lot of money to work with, yet there shouldn't necessarily be an assumption that any guy is particularly rich even if some guys might have had concluded that they had gotten through their accumulation status at earlier times.. so in that regard, I am trying to just respond to your statement.. and maybe I find it a bit problematic if 1) guys might still be accumulating bitcoin regularly but stating that they are buying more on dips, and/or 2) some of these same guys might be buying now with expectations that they are going to sell if the BTC price doubles... since they are thinking about buying back cheaper

But even if we go with your forum registration date and we might presume that you are getting close to six years accumulating bitcoin, there could have had been times that you were able to accumulate a lot and then hang onto your coins rather than selling them with expectations to buy back cheaper...

Even if you had been accumulating bitcoin for nearly the past 6 years at $50 per week, you might have had invested around $7k into bitcoin by now and you might have around 0.2 BTC.. which would not be a bad place to be, but steill seems that more bitcoin might need to continue to be accumulated.. and yeah, I cannot see any justification for selling even though there may be preferences to attempt to be aggressive now. and then maybe less aggressive if BTC prices were to get to $200k or more within the coming 3-6 months?.. .. It is kind of difficult to say, since having a BTC price run in this calendar year seems like it could be possible, but then it starts to feel strange to be expecting the run might continue in 2026 - well that is if any current run continues to feel like it is somewhat suppressed.

And then are you planning to sell at $200k?  for 2x profits on some of your latest purchases? 
I haven't sold all my hodlings though I cash out some of my BTC for necessary needs. 

I know you do seem to think about these matters differently from me, even though of course you are the one who has to live with the consequences and you seem to believe that buying and selling at the same time is a healthy way to treat your BTC accumulation journey..

It can be difficult to really get ahead in bitcoin if you are failing./refusing to let your bitcoin holding ride for a while and to compound in value a few times before getting overly excited to shave off profits.  That's been my observation - so in other words usually any new buys should ride at least 4 years, and perhaps better yet if new buys are able to ride a couple of cycles, maybe 8-ish years or more.

But yeah, guys can do what they like. 
I know the more you hold, more you will get. I am planning to sell some of my holdings for 200K while rest of it will have to wait for at least 4 or more years.

Doesn't that sound a bit strange to you?  You are selling while are still accumulating.

And, sure maybe that will work for you since you are planning to sell with an expectation of being able to buy back more with the same money that you received from selling it.

Personally, I don't consider that to be a good strategy for guys who are still accumulating, even though I understand that guys do it and attempt to do it, and some of them are able to do o.k. with such a strategy and others would have had been better off to just stay focused on BTC accumulation.

You are taking chances, but it is possible that it could work out for you.  Perhaps.

Yet at the same time, if a guy is still in BTC accumulation phase, he is more assured to continue to increase his stash if he just stays focused on buying and perhaps to find money from other places when he wants to buy things.. . but yeah opinions will differ regarding these kinds of matters regarding the hows and the amounts to play with when trying to catch waves.

I am happy I added over 1000 in 107 and 108 dip.
Still dca mining 0.001+ btc a day.

between the dca mining stack to trezor
the buy the dip PayPal
and the buy ladder on kraken

I am growing the stack.

That part is good... but you are ONLY a temporary grower, since you never saw a 60% price increase that did not get you sufficiently excited to nearly blow your whole wadd (referring to selling whatever gains you had gotten).. which is part of the reason that maybe you should be grilled like WatChe (or was it another member?)?

Here is grilling question. During this cycle (within the next 3-9 months-ish):  "how much of your BTC stash that you have today (and maybe still have at $120k?) do you expect to still have when (if?) the BTC price reaches $200k, $250k?  $300k?  $400k? Would you have any of  your stack left if the BTC price were to reach $500k?

I already gave my answer... which was that I probably would still have close to 97% of my stash if the BTC price reaches $500k in the coming 3-9 months, yet at the same time, I am not sure if I should be proud of my own situation, since I probably have to figure out ways to try to sell more if the BTC price were to go up to such price levels this cycle.

Each of us should have some ballpark ideas about where our stash would be under such scenarios that could happen, and in the past 9-ish months, I have changed my quantities at least 3 times, and I still have ONLY gotten to about 3% sales all the way up to $500k.. and I am not really proud of that even though that seems to be how my system is mostly working out.

I feel like this dip was either to liquidate leverage before the big move up, or somebody knowing MSTR isn’t getting announced as joining the S&P500 this coming Friday. We’ll find out Friday I guess, but it seems pretty obvious this dip is a massive insider trading fraud if MSTR doesn’t get included.
MSTR will definitely NOT be joining the S&P500 this session. This is public information - not insider only! Why do you think 'this dip is a massive insider trading fraud if MSTR doesn’t get included' [in the S&P500]?

That is a pretty strong assertion, which I think that many folks are thinking that MSTR has pretty good chances of being added to the S&P 500 this week.. so yeah, it would be good to know your sources for your theory that "everybody knows," if any.

Leonard Cohen probably has better sources than you (RIP Leonard)

I suspect a lot of the recent selling volume was major mining operations selling some retained BTC to cover operating costs and to extend their operations.  

It is good to have an alternative theory, yet I had not heard that miners are selling.

I have heard  that OGs are selling. which is even a questionable theory why OGs would need to sell so many coins.  I do like to the paper coins theory personally, though I don't really have any evidence for that.. yet sometimes momentum can just be exacerbated by FUD to get newer entrance scared to buy and/or to sell what they got.. and the FUD will work at least for a while.. and in that regard, momentum can draw further momentum.. for a while..

This dip is just a little fall-off, not a deep crater! It's to be expected, so why does it bother some people.

It's like a little breeze suddenly coming up on a completely still day. That's not a shocking event, so why is a little insignificant dip shocking?

Some here are beyond strange...

Well, that part is correct.  We have ONLY had about 14% drop so far, so such a drop does not even seem very BIG in the whole scheme of things... yet every cycle we have decently sized drops from time to time, and guys do end up getting emotional about the drops, so there is nothing new in regards to some guys seeming to overreact.. and get all worked up about it and proclaim bitcoin is dead. the bull market is over..  blah blah blah.

My biggest concern is the ample discretion allowed for the decision. More than anything, MSTR might be deemed not to fit the description of an IT company anymore.

That is true.

MSTR seems to be converting into more of a financial (BTC specific - which might not even be a "recognized" category yet?) company rather than an IT company.

MSTR will definitely NOT be joining the S&P500 this session. This is public information
Can you link a public source?
@d_eddie - The official S&P Dow Jones Indices press release from August 25, 2025, announced that Interactive Brokers Group would be joining the S&P 500, with NO mention of MicroStrategy, which strongly signals its exclusion from being included.

Not that something can't change at the very last minute...but it doesn't look like it's going to happen.  

One key for Strategy was that BTC kept its head about $98.8k which it has, so there may be a 'bit' of magic in the air, but at the time of the official S&P Dow Jones Indices press release it did not look promising for Strategy to be included...    

This makes more sense as compared to your initial "everybody knows" claim. I am sure guys are not very confidence about your claims in recent times, for "reasons."

[edited out]
Looks like you were able to dig it out yourself which was available a few days ago!  Why be an asshole because I didn't provide you a link?  You expect others to do research for you? 

Oh gawd...  Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

You want to come back and play hard ball?  That did not fare too well for you last time.

But hey whatever, try again. I thought everyone is being pretty nice to you, considering your recent history.. or even lack of history, since you seemed to have taken liberties to delete a good number of your recent titillating (if "we" might be so generous?) posts in this thread.

[edited out]
d_eddie  couldn't be bothered to go find it!  Roll Eyes 

Deflect much?

Last I checked a person who provides seemingly contrary claims should provide some evidence for those claims rather than just making such claims and seeing what happens.

Seems to be similar to your earlier issue, except your earlier issue involved making shit up and post it as if it were your own.... still not quite a settled matter (or any kind of slam dunk in your favor since you also chose to destroy evidence (if I might be so bold? hahahahaha).


I get the impression that BTCETFInvestor does not consider himself any kind of a newbie in the traditional sense of newbie whose actions can be reviewed, since he likely exists in such a fantasy way as to perceive himself as a wrongly persecuted victim... which is part of the reason that he still seems to have a chip on his shoulder rather than apologizing to several of us (and perhaps the whole thread?) for his earlier conduct.
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August 31, 2025, 07:55:45 AM

As I’ve been saying for months now, the announcement date for the next S&P 500 rebalancing will be September 5th. That is when we find out if Strategy will be included. Nothing has changed.
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August 31, 2025, 10:10:10 AM

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it is what it is. Happy sunday everyone!
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August 31, 2025, 10:31:12 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), psycodad (1)

MSTR will definitely NOT be joining the S&P500 this session. This is public information

Can you link a public source?

It not he a Ham radio guy?

..-. ..- -.-. -.- / -.-- --- ..-


It certainly not a scrap wire collector that sells CAT 5 cable to a scrap yard guy!

Maybe next time you can get some good stuff like 4/0 or 500 MCM with a some copper weight rather than that little small gauge stranded stuff. 

I don't remember philipma1957 mentioning what type of Ethernet Copper Cable he has, it could be cat6/cat7/coax... can't just keep jumping to conclusions.

$7,500 profit is nothing to laugh at, copper is copper... 4000lbs (2-1 ratio) of CAT6 copper is just as good as 4000lbs of 500MCM copper...

BTW, excellent way to make new friends and win people over! doing a great job!
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August 31, 2025, 10:33:51 AM
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it is what it is. Happy sunday everyone!

definitely the six leg octopus scares me!... trivia, did you know a octopus has 3 hearts!

(just done a 12hour drive playing trivia from YT to stay away!)
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