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1  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 28, 2024, 01:32:40 PM
Go buddy GO!





Firewall observed.
2  Economy / Economics / Re: MicroStrategy Buys $250M in Bitcoin, Calling the Crypto ‘Superior to Cash’ on: October 28, 2024, 05:58:11 AM
Saylor has converted his class B shares, which had 10x votes per share, to class A shares. Saylor went from about 52% of the voting power to 'just' 9.9%. That is a major change and people are speculating why. It might be because only class A shares are added to the market cap which helps reaching the Nasdaq100 inclusion threshold. And maybe removing a barrier for S&P500 inclusion? I can't imagine Saylor to jump ship at this stage now that the company is getting momentum, guess we will learn more during the earning calls (October 30).




EDIT:
Quote
@BenWerkman
[...] After further discussions we have concluded that the wording “were able to be acquired” is not indicating conversion in the past tense, but the possibility of conversion in the future.

So while the filing was for “Class A Common Stock” it appears to be indicating possible total, and not current actual Class A holdings total.

Apologies for the false alarm, it appears the vote is still fully with Saylor at the moment.
3  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 25, 2024, 05:27:14 AM
[...] Saylor is just another sociopath CEO who happens to like Bitcoin. Can't support him under any context as I don't think we as a society should strive to emulate his behavior. That's one of the worst aspects of Bitcoin: the pedestal-ing of scumbags simply because they like the orange coin. Sometimes capitalism gets it wrong.

Also I'd venture to guess that still most people don't know who he is.


Yeah. Fuck Saylor and his worthless shit company. I'd rather HFSP than joining that fiat system exploiting cult.
4  Economy / Economics / Re: MicroStrategy Buys $250M in Bitcoin, Calling the Crypto ‘Superior to Cash’ on: October 21, 2024, 05:21:39 PM
^ I am happy to report their holdings increased with 17.66% in the meanwhile.
5  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 16, 2024, 05:20:02 AM
I wonder where the $3k, $10k, bear boys at while looking at $67k now.


They have joint the $300 and $1000 bears, an ever expending wild park.
6  Economy / Economics / Re: MicroStrategy Buys $250M in Bitcoin, Calling the Crypto ‘Superior to Cash’ on: October 13, 2024, 04:38:46 PM
When Michael Saylor started buying bitcoin I think many of us doubted whether he was a madman or a genius. Well, it seems that as time goes by, the latter seems to be the case. And even more so when you see him repeating that he will keep buying no matter what, whether the price is high or low. What he's going to do is buy bitcoin and buy bitcoin and keep buying bitcoin.
Yes the continues buying of bitcoin now making him to think that, it is time for him to establish bitcoin Bank but Craig Wright accused him of betrayal of the principles of bitcoin and whY are the principles of bitcoin. Bitcoin was not meant to be centralized system but a decentralized system so if Michael Saylor established Bitcoin bank then there must be an centralized system from his end though bitcoin itself is decentralized but the bank will be has centralized like other exchanges. And really bitcoin doesn't need Bank and self custodial wallets are okay with bitcoin. If Michael Saylor established bitcoin Bank then people's bitcoins can be confiscated which is not part of the principles.
And as of September 2024,  Microstrategy company has hodled 252,220 BTC, which is equivalent to $15 billion.

Craig Wright Slams Michael Saylor’s Trillion-Dollar ‘Bitcoin Bank’ Ambition


Seems this guy disagrees: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2500.msg34211#msg34211
7  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 13, 2024, 05:46:07 AM
Something interesting...MSTR is up 14% today while bitcoin is up 6.2%.
Overall, MSTR owns 15.85 bil worth of bitcoin, almost all on borrowed money (spent 9.9 bil), but has a valuation of 42.26 bil, which is 2.67X their bitcoin value.

Essentially, at the current MSTR price, it would be at NAV when btc is at $167.6K.
Therefore, does MSTR, in fact, point to a current "expectation" of the near term btc price?
Maybe, but 2.67X is somewhat crazy...maybe someone is gamma -squeezing it's stock?

Perhaps the best play would be to own bitcoin and 'short" MSTR using 2Xbearish MSTR ETF (MSTZ).
This ETF completely crated lately, perhaps indicating a bargain?
In any case, imho, it could be used for hedging your long btc position and nothing else, essentially.

Not an investment advice!


You are not the first coming up with this idea. I wonder how Kerrisdale is doing with MSTR at a fresh ATH.

https://www.kerrisdalecap.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/MicroStrategy-MSTR.pdf

Well, the strategies outlined were different: he was talking about actually shorting MSTR and I was describing buying the 2X reverse ETF (that would increase 2x the MSTR's presumable decline toward NAV).

That said, it is entirely possible that btc would go to 150-160K shortly and close the NAV gap for MSTR.
It's just paying 2.6-2.7 bucks NOW for something that has $1 value strikes me as an aberration or collective insanity, but, sure, it might continue for a while.
However, as the link you posted suggests, the NAV gap would most likely to halve toward 1.3X.
Today, buying MSTR at $212.5 is essentially the same as voluntarily paying $155K for 1 btc.
The enterprise value of MSTR (non-bitcoin part) is about $10/share (as it was at this level, split adjusted, for years before trasformation to bitcoin holding company)

Finally, it was just a theoretical construct...I remain just long btc and ignore MSTR "funnies" for now.


Not here to make a case investing in Microstrategy and would recommend the self custody of your bitcoin. At the moment a premium is justified though; if you bought MSTR in January this year you now own +24% more bitcoin per share. That trend, next to a number of other factors, is worth a premium. How much and for how long is what the market is trying to figure out.
8  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 12, 2024, 08:12:24 PM
Something interesting...MSTR is up 14% today while bitcoin is up 6.2%.
Overall, MSTR owns 15.85 bil worth of bitcoin, almost all on borrowed money (spent 9.9 bil), but has a valuation of 42.26 bil, which is 2.67X their bitcoin value.

Essentially, at the current MSTR price, it would be at NAV when btc is at $167.6K.
Therefore, does MSTR, in fact, point to a current "expectation" of the near term btc price?
Maybe, but 2.67X is somewhat crazy...maybe someone is gamma -squeezing it's stock?

Perhaps the best play would be to own bitcoin and 'short" MSTR using 2Xbearish MSTR ETF (MSTZ).
This ETF completely crated lately, perhaps indicating a bargain?
In any case, imho, it could be used for hedging your long btc position and nothing else, essentially.

Not an investment advice!


You are not the first coming up with this idea. I wonder how Kerrisdale is doing with MSTR at a fresh ATH.

https://www.kerrisdalecap.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/MicroStrategy-MSTR.pdf
9  Economy / Economics / Re: MicroStrategy Buys $250M in Bitcoin, Calling the Crypto ‘Superior to Cash’ on: October 08, 2024, 06:42:31 PM
Indeed, the job description doesn't quite fit Andreas his profile.

The Manager of Bitcoin Advocacy will play a key role in advancing MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin development and advocacy initiatives. This individual will lead the planning and execution of our annual Bitcoin conference, lead internal and external bitcoin education initiatives for corporate adoption, and drive overall advocacy efforts to strengthen the company’s leadership in the Bitcoin community. They will work cross-functionally to leverage partnerships and contribute to innovative marketing campaigns. They will also help to set up a DC-based hub for bitcoin community interactions. We are looking for a passionate individual to join our Bitcoin team and spearhead our efforts in event management, education, and advocacy.
10  Economy / Economics / Re: MicroStrategy Buys $250M in Bitcoin, Calling the Crypto ‘Superior to Cash’ on: October 07, 2024, 06:05:47 AM
^ Sauce:


https://www.microstrategy.com/careers
https://jobs.smartrecruiters.com/MicroStrategy1/744000018431507-bitcoin-advocacy-manager
11  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 06, 2024, 07:51:10 PM
Guys, can you recommend bitcoin related materials that are suitable for beginners? I recently met a man who wanted to invest and asked me for advice. I told him about Bitcoin and he decided to invest a significant amount. But he needs more information.


Have him spend the initial 10000 hours of mandatory reading https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=252510;sa=showPosts


Alternatively: https://vijayboyapati.medium.com/the-bullish-case-for-bitcoin-6ecc8bdecc1
12  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 06, 2024, 07:46:33 PM
Two sure things in life ... taxes and death... deal with it.


Except it is not. It is just that most people somehow like to stay where they grew up and pay generational wealth for the 'convenience'.
13  Economy / Economics / Re: MicroStrategy Buys $250M in Bitcoin, Calling the Crypto ‘Superior to Cash’ on: October 03, 2024, 06:08:38 AM
The flippening: $MSTR > $GBTC. Microstrategy currently company #281 if it already were in the S&P500.

14  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 13, 2024, 06:23:33 PM


Weak sauce TBH.


15  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 13, 2024, 01:35:41 PM
Imagine owning more than 1% of the supply and keeping them at Coinbase.


Sauce?
16  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 11, 2024, 05:34:06 AM

But hey no worries, Apple is here to save us all with new product announcements! A new iPhone 16 somethingbillion on the way! Oh yay!

I wonder how that Apple Vision Pro VR headset is selling...like hot cakes I bet.   /s   Roll Eyes





I doubt anybody who owns IPhone 4s are still using it
But people still using Bitcoin.
Sigh

  I still use my iPhone 4S every day.   I've had to change the battery twice and most of the apps complain they require an update but on attempting an update, I'm informed that my current version of iOS needs to be upgraded which of course is impossible since Apple doesn't support their hardware beyond whatever arbitrary date they decide it has become obsolete.  The browser works but many sites no longer display properly; HackerNews still shows up fine though.  Candy Crush finally died a couple of months back and it will only prompt me to update now which I cannot do so while tptb are trying their damnedest, I am not deterred.  I just switched to Bejeweled for entertainment.  Mostly I use it to listen to my buddy George Noory on talk radio when I can't sleep - fortunately, the TuneIn Radio app still works fine and without ads.  Okay, it's not perfect but it's good enough.



Why did you get an iPhone 4S for more than 150 bitcoin while the XS 'only' costs you 0.15? That is the problem with these Bitcoin OGs, they completely lost touch with reality.
17  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 07, 2024, 07:05:04 PM
[...]
i would be having 1000k cash and 90 coins now at 53k

this would mean after cap gains I am at

800k and 90 coins.

I could buy 11 back at 583k

giving me 101 coins worth 53k

plus 217k cash.

so do you want 101 coins worth 53k and 217 cash or

100 coins at 53k


So I can tell you some people are stressed that they choose to hodl at 73k and not sell some.

[...]


You know what is much worse? Sell some at $73k and it just continues to go up. I'd much rather deal with a temporary blip in the price than missing the unlimited upside. You will be wrong one day and never see those coins back again. So unless you are in a real need for some dollars, I honestly wouldn't know what to do with them. Stare at the numbers in your banking app slowly shrinking away into nothingness?
18  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 06, 2024, 05:50:22 AM
Bitcoin is now older than the stock market.


https://x.com/corybates1895/status/1831842100603965819
19  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 26, 2024, 05:03:19 AM
Do not DCA visualized.
(But do not FOMO lump sum either.)

20  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 12, 2024, 08:11:52 PM
Guys, we got passed EmptyGox without barely an abrasion. It has been hanging over the market for 10+ years and I have lost count how many times some Gox FUD has hammered the price down during the decade. That page has turned now, forever. Hugely bullish.
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