^Okay, with all the discussion around AI generated content, I want to conduct a little test to see if you guys can discern AI from reality. Obviously, this is an informal test but here goes. (feel free to use one of those detection tools on it as well). It's not necessary for everyone to respond to this post - I'll update this post with an edit at ~2100 UST to let you know. Oh, regardless of what comes after this, I still love you JJG 
I just wanted to bring up a point about JJG's forum postings. Don't get me wrong, the guy knows his stuff and has some really useful insights. But seriously, he uses way too many words to make a simple point! I mean, come on, who has the time to read through a novel every time he posts something? It's like he's trying to show off how smart he is by using a million unnecessary words. Don't get me wrong, I appreciate a well-thought-out argument, but sometimes brevity is key.
#nohomoTo me it is more interesting why we think it is written by an AI or human, instead of using some detection tool. This would be an interesting school assignment @Homer . Why I think it is AI-generated: - It uses "don't get me wrong" twice in the same alinea, something humans get taught to avoid (re-using the same words). - "the guy knows his stuff and has some really useful insights" says exactly nothing, it attempts to disguise knowing any specifics about JJG. Except for the prompt it has been given that JJG uses lots of words trying to get a point across. |
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Just think about how many BTC that you might have had if you had been stacking in the last year gallianooo - rather than wishing for the BTC price to drop below $10k?
Its everyone wish that price of bitcoin fall so that we can accumulate Bitcoin. But the reality is whenever price go down there is so much fear and panic that not many accumulate. Right now everyone is wishing that Bitcoin may go down to 20k so that they can buy. Even if bitcoin go down to 20k in few days, these all desirous will start saying "stay away market is crashing". It really need balls to buy bitcoin on DIP. OG hodlers are indeed easy to spot:  |
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Of course, everyone gets a little bit cocky and smug when their BTC holdings are in profits If I own that many btc, I'll probably be shaking my hands off when it gets below 10% of my buying price You still seem to thinking about the whole matter incorrectly. Of course, MSTR and Saylor have a pretty good sized amount of their networth in bitcoin, but they still made a purposeful play (or several purposeful) plays in terms of how much of their assets (reserve cash) they were going to allocate to bitcoin, and in the beginning they had decided a percentage.. but then increasingly started to increase their percentage and also to use leverage... and it's not clear if the money from this purchase mostly came from excess cashflow (and therefore reserves) or if they were leveraging in some kind of a way by using more debt (which Saylor and MSTR do not seem to have any opposition to using various kinds of debt - and even creative debt instruments). and even those kinds of multiple profits does not end up happening in the short-term
He is probably not going to sell any of his holding on the next bull run supercycle or something. I dont know what his 'grand scheme' with all that bitcoins is but one of the option would be leveraging it in the future for huge amount of capital but even then Im not sure what he is going to do with all those money that he had piled up from accumulating bitcoins Saylor has become one of the more openly transparent persons about his (and his company's) plans regarding bitcoin, so there is no need for you to blindly speculate, unless you might be taking from some thing that he has said on the topic, and mostly many of us know (or anyone who has listened to/seen Saylor in an interview), he is planning on hanging onto the bitcoin forever.. and even to keep building his bitcoin holdings, so his actions seem to be largely consistent with his words. Another thing is that it might be reasonable to believe that he might be exaggerating his plan a little bit because he is not locked into "holding his bitcoin forever," but it also still seems better to at least have some kind of a clue regarding what Saylor is saying rather than just speculating.. so maybe you should go listen to some Saylor talks or research into the matter a wee bit MOAR better, arallmuus. Saylor does not seem to be secretive in terms of his statements about having ongoing bitcoin stackening goals. It is clear from their form-8k: On June 28, 2023, MicroStrategy announced that, as of June 27, 2023, MicroStrategy had issued and sold an aggregate of 1,079,170 Shares under the Sales Agreement for aggregate net proceeds to MicroStrategy (less sales commissions and expenses) of approximately $333.7 million. The holding forever intend may be genuine. MicroStrategy does however sell underlying stock to investors. (even attempting to time the market? as they did in the previous bull market when MSTR > $1k per share) |
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Seems buy the rumour sell the news still holds today, but only interesting for those day trading: - MicroStrategy BTC purchase announcements tend to be followed by short-term negative price action in BTC, as the market absorbs the fact that certain buy-side liquidity has left the market.- Since 2020, bitcoin has registered an average daily return of negative 2% on days of MSTR announcements. The average weekly return following MSTR's announcement is slightly positive. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/microstrategys-bitcoin-purchases-tend-short-142218974.html |
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250K?
It looks like PTB are infatuated with a newer toy aka AI (running NVDA to almost 1 tril in valuation).
To me, it makes it less likely for us to see growth from 26-27K to 250K in this cycle.
However, some upward pulse has to be expected and the value of btc in the fall of 2024 would probably determine how much running power it would have.
If only 50-60K by that date, then $120K would be the new ATH target and if btc is already at ATH by the fall of 2024, then we can, indeed, spike to 180K and maybe even 220-250K.
^ above is a pure speculation based on about 10 years of experience and not much else..I don't have a fancy trend graph to show (at least i did not make it yet).
Yes. No ATH this year but we will surpass $70k in 2024 or early 2025. Then all bets are off and we get a nice blow off top in 2025/2026 because we are still entitled to one from 2021. Easy peasy short squeezy. |
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Observing empty block!
~
How dare you!
It looks to be the usual problem: the empty block came too early (maybe seconds) after another block. You can see both with "10 minutes". (But yeah, you may already know all this.) 15 seconds apart. https://www.blockchain.com/explorer/blocks/btc?page=1 those times can be off by 20 seconds or more. Ie block could be 35 seconds not 15. But empty blocks have happened for years nothing new here. As rewards half in 2024 it will be a bigger deal by the time we are at 2032 we will have rewards of only 0.78125 btc if fees are running at 0.78 at this time an empty block will be an issue. I wonder if anything will be done by then. ... Bitcoins might cost millions of dollars each by then. An empty block could cost them millions. Just so there is no misunderstanding. An 'empty' block still contains the block subsidy. Just no transactions and therefore no TX fees. |
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I got it, but I am reconsidering even to have more than a current month expense in the bank.
You get 0% there and in a money market almost 5%.
I am sure that after I would post this, some money market would get off parity and money would flow backwards into the "safe" banks.
In fact, I penciled this scenario for sometime in the next 6-8 mo as banks cannot tolerate losing deposits to Treasury direct and money markets for too long. In my country banks don't pay anything on deposits. I'm not sure why but it's like that. They will direct you to put money in various instruments, some are very common, government backed, but you can't put more than less than 1BTC at current prices. After that we're talking life insurance, bonds stocks etc. But in the US banks pay something, and I was seeing that JPMorgan made tons of money lately, because they hiked the rates of mortgages like crazy, but increased the rates they pay on deposits to something ridiculous like 0.3%. If I was a customer I would be angry... Banks have multi year/decade bonds purchased during the zero interest era. When interest rates go up, the price of existing bonds goes down. The banks holding these bonds can't offer you a higher interest rate than the bonds on their balance sheets. Obviously people and businesses start taking their fiat out of the bank and put it into the current >5% yielding bonds themselves. This forces the banks to sell their bonds at a loss. People with money still in the bank then start to get worried and take their fiat out as well: a bank run leading to bankruptcy, which these days can happen within minutes/hours/days. TL;DR Buy bitcoin and be your own, full reserve, bank. |
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Haven't seen the 4th bear market report (22 pages) by Tuur Demeester shared yet. Worth a read since the previous three reports (2012, 2015, 2019) turned out to be quite prophetic. One conclusion is we are currently in the accumulation phase (price range $22k-$42k) until a new multi-year bull market pushes it well north of $120,000. IMHO it won't take long before all coins in the twenties are permanently sold and we are firmly back into the thirties. Time to HODL, sit back, and enjoy the ride. https://global-uploads.webflow.com/64146a6197229d65fe665d88/6447db3b49378e26a7154596_position-bitcoin-boom-adamant.pdfAnother conclusion is dollar-cost-averaging sucks vs. lump sum, something the royal we already concluded on the WO. For those in a hurry the first page with the conclusions:  |
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WO's 10Th Anniversary On 16th April 2013 @infofront created Wall Observer (WO), the most popular community thread on Bitcoin forums. This megathread enters its tenth year today. Big thanks to all the users who have made this megathread the biggest community thread to date. Today in this community thread we can learn a lot of important information about Bitcoin and beyond Bitcoin. Special thanks to all the users who keep serving this community thread with valuable information. Special thanks to [edited out] It was adamstgBit who created the WO thread. I hope he says hi when we (again) hit his long predicted magic number $32k. Edit: price breaks 420 once again, here what i have to say:  |
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Fucking conspiracy theorists.
Some dude i came to slowly build personal relations with over a couple of years now, and this is a rare type of event in my life, actively texted me today about chemtrails.
I was like "R U SERIOUS?!". I had these visual, clear words in my mind: "the show must go on. Always...".
After re-texting a few dozen lines of debunkenings and solid reasonings against various absolutely insane sub-theories and statements, i came to a conclusion:
There goes a friendship candidate.
Years wasted.
Go to Start (as in "Monopoly", the game)
I mean, i wouldn't agree to ban Telegram, WhatsApp and the likes, but these message groups avalanche in mobile social media clearly goes over the top of most peoples heads.
Still i got no WhatsApp, i am not in a single messaging group in other messenger apps, of which i only use one .more or less regularly.
I mean no offence here, but your attitude is juvenile. Who cares if your friend believes in chem trails or other obvious crazy conspiracy theories. Is he hurting anyone by believing in that? People believe in all sorts of sh1t, and so what, I bet you even believe in things others disagree with. Perhaps even some of your existing friends and family. And why try to debunk his crap? If someone thougt chocolate ice cream was the best but you thought vanilla ice cream was the best would you argue with them about that then cut them out of your life when you couldn’t convince them. Seriously, cutting people off because their thinking doesn't align with yours is exactly why the world is so god damn divided these days. Whatever happened to agree to disagree then continue on with things that you both agree. I actually have a friend who believes in more than just chem trails, he also believes in a flat earth, fake moon landing, mystical energy sources, and other crap. Yeah, I think he is crazy, but he is a nice guy and I enjoy his company. In fact, being that he is open to others ideas he is now also a bitcoiner. I have other acquaintances who are ardent no coiners and they are very unaccepting of others and other ideas. There are even people out there believing, more than a few, a guy resurrected from the dead. |
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Anyone knows the reason the $MSTR price is suddenly severely lacking the value of the number of bitcoin per share?
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None of that negates any of the points that I had been making... Yes, we know that lump sum will beat DCA so long as you buy in a dipping period as compared to buying in a peaking period, so what else is new? Part of the issue for any normie remains whether they have a lump sum to invest in the first place, which an overwhelming majority of normies do not have any lump sum.. [...] There might be more 'normies' than you think over the next years/decades with a sudden lump sum amount to invest. The wealthy boomer generation is getting old. For those it is good to be educated what the most efficient deploy of capital into bitcoin is. |
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If you are new to Bitcoin and/or visiting the WO for the first time: Please read the above post again and thank LFC later.
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