I think we can safely see now (in 2020), how money supply inflation directly affects asset prices, including Bitcoin.

 

Interesting work!

I would normally agree, but this person may actually be right this time. There's a lot of evidence to support 5k by next week, including the amount of price compression that has been going on over the last 5 trading periods. However, that same compression can also be fuel for the bulls to push price into 11k.

One thing is clear, we will know which side wins very soon. I think in about a week, maybe 2.

Good traders are popular because they offer great trading advice... great traders are unheard of because they take their own advice.

I wonder how much of this (BTC dominance dropping) has to do with taking advantage of 2017's tax code... total crypto market cap is still relatively high at over $500 billion as the price of BTC falls.

http://fortune.com/2017/12/21/bitcoin-tax/

If the logic is true, then we will see that change on New years. Also, could mean another day of selling.

I have to admit that I was wrong about the CME closing negative every day last week; it actually closed positive on Friday. While this does affect the direction of the trend from what I originally thought (yes I know, obvious now, but...), it doesn't change my opinion that the futures market has influence over spot. Here's why...

These past 3 days, following Friday's close, just saw price rotate around the futures close price of $13800 (Bitstamp), in a range of +-$1500 (between $12500 and $15700), and last night (Futures Tuesday open) we started pushing higher FROM $13800 to continue Friday's move higher from the low of $11k. It's almost as if the past 3 days were meaningless, just waiting for futures to open again.

Also note how the price went from the all time high at $19666 exactly when the CME opened at 6PM on the 17th, to being driven down every single day throughout the week as futures were trading, until Friday.

Yes, I admit that I was wrong about today being a negative day, based on my false perception that Friday closed negative as well. However, I really do think the CME has an affect on the spot market. Whether or not it is a direct affect, or one that is behind the scenes is definitely open to debate. But the evidence is clear. IMO, I believe that we are finally seeing who controls these markets.

Anyway, I appreciate the feedback. Thank you.

Ever since the CME opened, we have seen negative days -- every day -- except a day on which the CME was not open (Saturday the 23rd).

The CME resumes trading in 30 minutes. I suspect we will see another negative day.

Right on schedule. Damn.

Price hasn't broken the ATH, but I wouldn't say that we're still in a bear market. IMO, we have been back in an up-trending bull market since after the first half of 2015...

The EW structures also meet the common definition of a fractal. Fractals are natural, mathematical patterns of evolving symmetry found in nature...

In my opinion (which I would love to write a thesis on one day), human behavior seems to derive from a fractal thought process, and thus price movements are also fractal. If you look at the human brain and how it functions, much of it is symmetrical, self-similar, and recursive (see 'The Fractal Brian Theory' by Wai Tsang); I think this is why we see fractal patterns manifest in price discovery.

Based off personal experience, there are lots of securities that display these properties (especially intraday), but some are more apparent than others. Bitcoin has one of the most apparent fractal structures, IMO. Maybe because it has the least amount of artificial market-moving influences (like central bank or government policy).

This past year's gradual bullish sentiment (and where I think we all know we're headed) got me to thinking of old times when Masterluc said this crazy thing, and it made a lot of people upset...




Had to dig it up... but I remember the exact comment when Masterluc became bearish, almost 3 years ago... 5 days after the ATH made on November 30th, 2013.

I remember because the next projected dates he said were so far away away, and at the time seemed so ridiculous...



But if Masterluc was going to be proven right about the top (which he later was), then I suppose it wasn't such a crazy timeline...

This was followed by an epitaph of the historical first wave...




But it wasn't all bad.

Later on August 19th, 2015, Masterluc had become a bull again...





And about 5 days later, the price bottomed out at $200...

and has not touched it since.


Masterluc has done lots of great short-term analysis in-between and since these posts, but I remember these comments being distinctly different as a shift in his long-term sentiment, and ultimately they stuck with me... especially when they were accurately reaffirmed everyday thereafter.


I just wanted to put this all together somewhere for posterity, because it really is quite an impressive series of long term calls. And I'm sure for a lot of us who have been here as long as Masterluc's thread has existed (and his old one too), we know these things... but I guess what I'm trying to say is...

Masterluc has a record of missing long-term high's and lows by roughly 5 days, give or take. So why are we even bothering to listen to this fool?

What a garbage thread.

$700 for the top of 'b'?

Always have my eye on this thread ;-)

I'll be completely honest, on its own, NIRP presents a very valid use case for Bitcoin.

How about these futures markets, eh? Crazy ride right now... those Brits sure are causin' a bit of a ruckus :-)

I wonder how much the halving had to do with the run-up in price. Bitcoin investors know that if the price isn't at a certain level, Bitcoin's mining incentives are slightly compromised, thus so is bitcoin. And this being a highly speculative investment, perhaps these heavily invested groups are simply attempting to save the value of their large Bitcoin portfolio by investing more into it?

Makes sense on paper, probably what happened, but we'll never know for sure.

Also, I'm happy to see that you are commenting a little more, lucif I am usually disengaged with Bitcoin in general when you're not around.

S&P, sorry for confusion.

If S&P breaks 1935, we will see 2000 again.

I'm playing it safe on BTC and waiting on the side with USD... global markets are entering the bear cycle down and I think people will sell, not buy BTC.

Of course, the last thing lucif posted was a prediction that we are entering the largest upward wave, so I could be completely wrong.

support here at 1900

US equities are at an interesting technical support level... could be a very bad month.

I forgot about this thread  

Good shit for reviving this guys

OK. So after reality decided to come back, this ended up just being a huge wick on my charts... albeit, enough to have briefly lost faith in my own TA.

Faith *slightly* restored.... but I agree with Luc, that was insane.