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Economy / Speculation / Heading for the cliff.
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on: January 21, 2016, 12:06:28 PM
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I am a huge fan of changing ones perspective (at least from time to time). While we have a certain kind of group think in this forum (I guess no one would deny this  ), this post is not about the "internal" evaluation of bitcoin. It is about the wider (public) audience. In my post in late October - I wrote about the re-(e)valuation of bitcoin due to be positively featured by The Economist et al. After 3 month of price swings around the $380 mark, we are now entering the critical phase of finished (public) opinion building and decision making (e.g. UK gov https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4sm5LNqL5j0 the IMF http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/sdn/2016/sdn1603.pdf and PBOC http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-currency-digital-idUSKCN0UY1JT). According to my price targets I issued in November (must buy zone after first correction $320, must buy zone after second correction $400), it's now the time for me to issue a cliff warning for our fellow citizens, as I am expecting the prices to collapse in dollar terms starting in early February.  If my prognosis is right expect taking out the old ATL within 60 days.  PSA: If you want to play it safe. Wait until the $500 mark is cleared. BTW: The block size fork is a red herring to divide and distract the community members. It will be solved in one way or another - and it's completely priced in at todays prices. In the case of a fork expect huge amounts of cash sitting on the sidelines stabilizing the price! |
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Economy / Speculation / A friendly reminder...
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on: January 13, 2016, 12:08:10 PM
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according to plans.... first "real" correction is on the way.
Show is over for now. We'll go back to ~$300 and building a plateau there; Price will oscillate between $300 and $400 while slowly creeping up to around $450 until jan/feb. From there, we will start the rise far beyond the ATH.
PSA: I call anything below $320 a must buy.
$300/320 is the target - after that we'' see an oscillating price up to $450 till jan/feb. - it'll feel more or less like sideways.
Sub $400 is the new MUST-BUY zone.
RIP bulls.
$380 next - rally in february ...we're going to enter part II very soon: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1231855.msg12828528#msg12828528 |
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Economy / Speculation / Best of 2012 - sentiment analysis
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on: October 17, 2015, 02:23:20 PM
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6/29/12 The bubble has popped, slow decline to $3 on the way6/20/12 What's causing the recent bitcoin price increase?5/27/12 Trading volume of BTC/CNY is risingFor more go to section 255+ of THIS board Edit: Just realized: This was the time, when I started to invest in BTC.
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Economy / Speculation / I really like how calm the forum is!
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on: July 12, 2015, 05:59:54 AM
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We reached a new state of mind with absolute calmness. Even right before the next big increase, I see only few bulls that are overly euphorical. Every wish for appreciation is gone. This is the perfect basis for something big. This video shows exactly what was neccessary for many of us since the top in November 2013. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=92i5m3tV5XYIt will be even more valuable to you in the upcoming euphoria phase. I recommend you to watch it at least two times a day. Once you start trading/watching the price and once you (try to) go to bed. |
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Economy / Speculation / Waiting for the crash
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on: May 29, 2015, 09:23:55 AM
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For me, it feels a lot like 12/31/1999. Everybody was so curious back then. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_2000_problem"What do you think will happen? Maybe all the lights go out at midnight! Are there emergancy plans?" It was a great disillusion, when it became clear that nothing - not a thing went wrong on that day. Well, nice party anyway. J.Lo even wrote a song about it: "Waiting for tonight the crash."  Will we see a crash? IMO: Well maybe, if btc-e shuts down, okcoin is announcing insolvency and bitlicense kills the marketplace in NY. |
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Economy / Speculation / Bold statement: Next target is low ~$700s (Awaiting scream of laughter)
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on: April 30, 2015, 11:35:06 AM
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We'll see some more hovering around the 200-300 level in the next weeks. After that we'll be reaching ~$700 (quite fast) followed by a correction to the low ~$400s. After that we'll have a boring, but stable time till mid 2016. Good for merchant adoption and inviting your friends to the party,... This is a speculation based only on gut feeling and some minor observations. Let the shitstorm begin! |
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Economy / Speculation / This forum is not an indicator for the real sentiment anymore.
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on: April 25, 2015, 07:30:36 AM
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All of us love to play bull or bear games. I am intrigued by it myself. Nevertheless, the market has matured. If bulls are talking "bullstalk" in here it doesn't matter besides bears in this forum feel reinforced, that the dowtrend will prolong. I think this is a fallacy. I find it kind of fascinating, that almost all great forecasters I have great respect for see a continuing downtrend. Knowing, that they have a big number of interested followers. I am quite sure, we have seen the low of this bearmarekt already in january. This, my beloved bullfriends does not mean we are seeing any bubbles soon. I kind of agree with master luc, that we could establish a very long sidewards movement, which could easily take more than one year from where we are now. This will greatly help the bitcoin ecosystem to flourish more and more as a payment system (cash in vs. cash out in balance + newly mined coins absorbed). It would be very daunting for get rich quick bulls. It will be boring for shorters and traders will call bitcoin a fad because of the lacking volaitility (we already see this now!). For the bullunatics, it might be even harder to see bitcoin going sidewards for such a long time (with no indication, that it could rise ever again), than hoping for the break of the downtrend and an immediate bubble. Happy boring markets! tl:dr; no price action for at least one more year. bitcoin becomes useful for users and boring for speculators. |
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Economy / Speculation / Is there an influence of the Mt. Gox payout on the markets?
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on: April 22, 2015, 02:14:20 PM
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The payout of creditors is fixed at $483/bitcoin +6% p.a.
If one wants to hold bitcoin after the payout (I assume most of the creditors are not going to liquidate their bitcoin holdings). Lower bitcoin prices are in ones favor, as the total claims will be calculated in $. Read: If the bitcoin price crashes even further this is good for Mt. Gox creditors, who want to be refunded in bitcoin (firm believers).
If (instead) one is afraid of higher prices (fewer bitcoin refunds), there are basically to options one can take part in now:
a) suppress prices (this is more a whale thingy)
b) hedge against higher prices (basically buy the expected refund now).
As prices are calculated in $ there seems to be no incentive for people with fiat in gox to play the market atm.
Might this be the reason, we are not seeing any significant price action for quite a time.
Personally, I'd like to see lower prices at around the payout. I am afraid whales are not strong enough to hold the price down till the payout. And if they fail, it easily could lead to a front-runner effect. The first, who hedges against higher prices hedges the best.
Could you please check, if there is a fallacy in my thinking?
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Economy / Speculation / Perception is everything (DD press release)
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on: March 22, 2015, 11:50:31 AM
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 "It was a 'long' and painful haul for U.S." John Doe told the DD (Doellardesk.top for reference) today. "But we never feared uncertainty and doubt. One could say. We never lost our 'trust in god'."
With a lot of self-confidence - investors like John are stating they are back on stage. The capitulation (high trading volume on 'all' major exchanges) in late 2013 could prove him right. His remarks are highly appreciated and patronized by the so long FED up community.
Asked by DoellarTelegraph media outlet John's wife respondend: "The year-long downtrend is over! For more than one year, we are on a steady rise. Yes. We had to tighten our belts. But now: What stops US from shooting for the moon? Once people 'get' the benefit of paper and and numbers (combined) trust comes back and prices will soonTM follow suit. It feels good to be part of this endeavour. On a vessel heading for an off shore safe haven and a brighter and safer future for U.S. all - each and every day - for ever and for always. Even my mum sees this once in a lifetime NewDawnTM investment opportunity on the horizon. Have a look at these hand-crafted, green paper wads. How can one not love them. Even better! Look at these powerful and sexy males on each of them. It makes the collection of PANINITM stickers unneccessary." Jane is sure. More and more useful applications will be found to improve 'her' already perfectly slim and handy paper numbers in the future, making everyones investment even more valuable.
In the meanwhile, there are also some cautios voices stating the decline in volume over a 16 month period rouses doubt over bulls capabilities. Odds might change (fast) in favour of a prolonged bearmarket.
Statistics show. The grand majority (99,9%+) share the perception of John and Jane. May the fortune be with the Does. tl:dr; Why Did People Believe The Titanic Was Unsinkable?Edit: It seems some people don't get my sense of humour. Kicked some of the TM and made US more clear. |
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Economy / Speculation / Today I bought out of greed.
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on: February 12, 2015, 03:20:53 PM
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At these prices, I feel more comfortable buying than selling. If prices will fall, I will buy more.
My plan: For every week bitcoin is under $250 I will exchange coins worth $1000.
How many dollars will I spend? Any guesses?
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Economy / Speculation / I have a bad feeling (we might 'never' see this cheap coins again) :(
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on: February 08, 2015, 11:56:42 AM
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After a long and bumpy decline for almost 14 month, I might be finally wrong with my expectation of coins around $120. -> This would have given me the opportunity to reach my intended bitcoin holdings.
Wish I had bought more at $160. Am I to late to the party?
For some more days I will try to stay calm. No buying, just observing. Something is in the air.
What do you think? How are your feelings at your current dollar (long) vs. bitcoin (long) positions?
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Economy / Speculation / Yes, I care for the price of bitcoin. (Explain how you feel).
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on: February 01, 2015, 10:36:11 AM
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Stage 13?? We could be at 9 or 10 as well! We are going down. Step 9 or 10 is about where we are. However I doubt even the next crash is the bottom. Exactly what is the point? Who cares where we are anymore? Clearly not you, because you aren't signed in to an internet forum concerned with bitcoin, and posting on the forum specifically designated for speculating. OH WAIT. I think this forum doesn't represent honest feelings and therefore sentiment can only be answered from one's own perspective. Nevertheless I'd like to ask you to share your current feelings with us. For me - bitcoin is like a ticket for the best rollercoaster of our times. It's fun and stress at the same time. Can not say for sure, if I am at stage 5, 11 or 13. My feelings are (damn) to volatile to work as a 'real' store of value  . Recently, I even thought about shorting it (for the first time) to $120 (as I still see more downwards pressure rolling in). But: Somehow, I am to frightened, we might have seen the end of the downtrend and I might fuck up big time. Maybe someone feels familiar with this state of mind and is comfortable with sharing some insights, too. I might also wait for $120 to come and then buy some more coins. FYI, my break-even point is around $80. I increased it though from $5 in 2012, when I got involved for the first time. More or less my whole trading history: Bought @5 Sold @45 Bought @70 Sold @260 Bought@130 Sold@1200 (lost approx. 50% in Mt. Gox) Bought @610, @$450, @$340, $160 and soon to come $120 (?) Most important: - I am comfortable loosing it all.
- Bitcoin enables societal change, even if it is not successful as a coin!!! (ask yourself what was your motivation to get into Bitcoin and what a societal change seems worth to you).
- More so, I believe it's all about a binary outcome (might turn out this is not true), even if in the end it will be totally different from what we expacted it to be in the first place.
What I quite firmly can state now: bitcoin certainly is not meant to be for a quick buck. IMO, Satoshi new well about the hypecycles 'he' will produce. All the people complaining about the volatility and buil-in (high) inflation don't seem to get, that it is the downs, that make bitcoin the 'fairest' coin in the long run (hence acceptance from the wider public) despite many people will miss the chance to get-in and complain afterwards (but they know, they could have --> and this gives it legitimacey!) I want to believe: Some of them might be even long-time lurkers in this forum. But maybe they are simply "agenda-bulls". (See first line of the post). Thanks to sgbett for posting his current state of mind here https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=941152.0 |
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