The Despondancy Stage

[NotLambchop]

...
It's moved far away from the ideals and beliefs of the initial user base to groups of people looking to abuse it for monetary gain...

I hope you're not suggesting that a portion of Bitcoin's userbase is motivated by  ...greed?  Unthinkable!
Is there no limit to human depravity, using Bitcoin as if it was real money?!  For monetary gain even?!!1!

[1714909199]

1714909199

[1714909199]

1714909199

[NotHatinJustTrollin]

What has happened between then and now is a shift in the people involved in BTC.  It's moved far away from the ideals and beliefs of the initial user base to groups of people looking to abuse it for monetary gain.  Obviously there are still new comers interested in the tech, but I would guess a majority are looking for a way to bank $$$, not BTC.

So we are in the good ol' "people buying and HODLING expecting 1 gazillion per coin thanks to greater fools are saints and are in for the ideals but the people dumping or shorting because they expect the price to go down are evil and greedy".
I see...

The "to the moon" mentality has been around for a long time...

[dropt]

What has happened between then and now is a shift in the people involved in BTC.  It's moved far away from the ideals and beliefs of the initial user base to groups of people looking to abuse it for monetary gain.  Obviously there are still new comers interested in the tech, but I would guess a majority are looking for a way to bank $$$, not BTC.

So we are in the good ol' "people buying and HODLING expecting 1 gazillion per coin thanks to greater fools are saints and are in for the ideals but the people dumping or shorting because they expect the price to go down are evil and greedy".
I see...

You weren't here then so I don't expect you to understand that that's not what I mean. 

It's easy to walk around with your shit brush and paint it all brown, and to be honest that's exactly what I expect from you.  Just to share: it wasn't just "people buying and HODLING expecting 1 gazillion per coin", in fact the early "pioneers" if we can call them that spread their BTC wealth quite willingly.  There were BTC bounties offered for development and technical assistance.  There were faucets that gave multiple coins away.  People mined at a financial loss and were more than happy to do so.  There were countless other things going on that were all reflective of people sharing, building, and growing BTC because of the ideas behind it at the time. 

But I digress.  You weren't there, you didn't witness it, and thusly I don't expect you to be cognizant just how much this "community" has changed.

[NotLambchop]

^Yep, when BTC was worthless, it was passed around freely, like shitcoins of today.
Now that it's actually worth something, the same BTC "Pioneers" suddenly tightened their purse strings  Err...  I mean far as passing the coin around--they still brag about their mad wealth & teh Lambos bought.

P.S:  I've been around this community for quite a while, and it was *ALWAYS* full of scumbags, second-rate hustlers & first-rate suckers.

[NotHatinJustTrollin]

What has happened between then and now is a shift in the people involved in BTC.  It's moved far away from the ideals and beliefs of the initial user base to groups of people looking to abuse it for monetary gain.  Obviously there are still new comers interested in the tech, but I would guess a majority are looking for a way to bank $$$, not BTC.

So we are in the good ol' "people buying and HODLING expecting 1 gazillion per coin thanks to greater fools are saints and are in for the ideals but the people dumping or shorting because they expect the price to go down are evil and greedy".
I see...

You weren't here then so I don't expect you to understand that that's not what I mean.  

It's easy to walk around with your shit brush and paint it all brown, and to be honest that's exactly what I expect from you.  Just to share: it wasn't just "people buying and HODLING expecting 1 gazillion per coin", in fact the early "pioneers" if we can call them that spread their BTC wealth quite willingly.  There were BTC bounties offered for development and technical assistance.  There were faucets that gave multiple coins away.  People mined at a financial loss and were more than happy to do so.  There were countless other things going on that were all reflective of people sharing, building, and growing BTC because of the ideas behind it at the time.  

But I digress.  You weren't there, you didn't witness it, and thusly I don't expect you to be cognizant just how much this "community" has changed.

Oh I see you are talking about the REALLY old days. People became greedy with the first 2011 bubble or even before, as soon as some understood that this thing could be pumped&dumped.
Sure I know that Gavin donated 10k BTC to a faucet, that early miners had no idea what these funny tokens could become, sure I know.

But when blind greed is involved, things can shift quite quickly. And they did.

PS: How do you know where I was during BTC early days?

[inca]

sure - always more down

Thanks for the analysis.

OP I have to say I find your posts highly refreshing. I think it is worth pointing out that the 'float' of coins moving the price up and down is tiny compared to the vast majority of coins which are 'held' by people like you and me who actually believe in the technology. We are what give the commodity value.

Whilst there may be one or two honest bears on here who believe that bitcoin is destined to fail, almost everyone else without exception is simply trying to buy back in at a lower price or actively shorting the commodity, whilst dishonestly talking it down for manipulative purposes. Nothatinjustrollin is a fine example. Lets be honest none of us would want to meet up with any of you in real life.

I'd like to meet you in real life... to smack you upside the back of your head for lending your coins out on Finex 

I kid 

Ha

Yes, it was a phase. Eventually fear of exchange failure got the better of me.

[oda.krell]

Its very simple.  The price is depressed by 3600 new coins per day.  And no it doesn't matter that exchanges are doing tens of thousands of trades per day -- most are likely the same coins passed between the same traders.  It doesn't matter that miners often hold.  If they weren't holding mined coins they would have been buyers.

Creating the next wave will be actual use or fear-driven diversification.

By actual use I don't mean another exchange.  I mean remittance, changetip, to a lesser degree credit card replacement (since the benefits are minimal, esp if you don't already hold BTC), and most importantly new uses.

Diversification is not happening much now because most people are momentum buyers and central banks are mostly keeping a lid on things.  So there is less reason to diversify out of fiat currencies, and BTC is not perceived as such a great choice even if you wanted to.
 
This could change if we have a few months stability or a gradual rise.  But again, this will be hard at 3600 coin inflation per day.

Fuck yes. Finally a post worth reading again in all this troll garbage. (Yours is worth reading as well, OP, but you know that.)

There's momentum overshoot, to the up and downside, just like in any market. Then there's the Bitcoin typical iliquidity of the very market that determines "the price", mainly because of two reasons: hoarding, and the unusually high counterparty risk with our existing exchanges. Then there's quite a bit of an effect of savvy traders' driving the market in this direction or that (within certain limits). And then there's whatever adoption as a medium of exchange adds a certain minimum valuation through usage.

But at the end, it's mostly about the inflation. ("Boooh. Don't call it that! Bitcoin is sound money!") Whatever price emerges at the end of the day, after all the above factors are included, times 3600 has to be put up by someone. (Actually, quite a bit more than 3600 lately because of the lagging difficulty adjustment. Closer to 4100 per day last year.)

So, we wait for 2017.

Or maybe not. As the wise oracle user who's been absent for a long time now pointed out, there's an interesting dynamic about how the market prices in the decline in the growth of the monetary base. Some anticipation effect of the reward reduction is likely to click at some point with a continued decline in price (which is itself reducing the effect of the 3600 coins per day, all else equal), most likely generating a rather sharp effect on price.

I consider 2017 a hard limit for our bear market, but probably the 'click' will take place before.

[Biodom]

Its very simple.  The price is depressed by 3600 new coins per day.  And no it doesn't matter that exchanges are doing tens of thousands of trades per day -- most are likely the same coins passed between the same traders.  It doesn't matter that miners often hold.  If they weren't holding mined coins they would have been buyers.

Creating the next wave will be actual use or fear-driven diversification.

By actual use I don't mean another exchange.  I mean remittance, changetip, to a lesser degree credit card replacement (since the benefits are minimal, esp if you don't already hold BTC), and most importantly new uses.

Diversification is not happening much now because most people are momentum buyers and central banks are mostly keeping a lid on things.  So there is less reason to diversify out of fiat currencies, and BTC is not perceived as such a great choice even if you wanted to.
 
This could change if we have a few months stability or a gradual rise.  But again, this will be hard at 3600 coin inflation per day.

Fuck yes. Finally a post worth reading again in all this troll garbage. (Yours is worth reading as well, OP, but you know that.)

There's momentum overshoot, to the up and downside, just like in any market. Then there's the Bitcoin typical iliquidity of the very market that determines "the price", mainly because of two reasons: hoarding, and the unusually high counterparty risk with our existing exchanges. Then there's quite a bit of an effect of savvy traders' driving the market in this direction or that (within certain limits). And then there's whatever adoption as a medium of exchange adds a certain minimum valuation through usage.

But at the end, it's mostly about the inflation. ("Boooh. Don't call it that! Bitcoin is sound money!") Whatever price emerges at the end of the day, after all the above factors are included, times 3600 has to be put up by someone. (Actually, quite a bit more than 3600 lately because of the lagging difficulty adjustment. Closer to 4100 per day last year.)

So, we wait for 2017.

Or maybe not. As the wise oracle user who's been absent for a long time now pointed out, there's an interesting dynamic about how the market prices in the decline in the growth of the monetary base. Some anticipation effect of the reward reduction is likely to click at some point with a continued decline in price (which is itself reducing the effect of the 3600 coins per day, all else equal), most likely generating a rather sharp effect on price.

I consider 2017 a hard limit for our bear market, but probably the 'click' will take place before.

honestly, i really don't get why people are focusing on 3600 number so much. Yes, someone has to buy these coins, but it is a puny number (The equivalent of $828K). Are you saying that 828K selling is depressing the bitcoin price? If so, bitcoin is punier than I thought. In addition, a measly $2K investment by 360 people on earth populated by 7 billion will devour these few coins.

I think that much stronger flows are probably initial (early) BTC wallets selling. These can really provide a downside.

[NotLambchop]

...
honestly, i really don't get why people are focusing on 3600 number so much. Yes, someone has to buy these coins, but it is a puny number (The equivalent of $828K). Are you saying that 828K selling is depressing the bitcoin price? If so, bitcoin is punier than I thought. In addition, a measly $2K investment by 360 people in 7bil earth will devour these few coins. ...

It's either a lot or a little, but it's still 12%.  12% of total coins in existence had to be bought up in 2014 to keep the price steady.

[oda.krell]

honestly, i really don't get why people are focusing on 3600 number so much. Yes, someone has to buy these coins, but it is a puny number (The equivalent of $828K). Are you saying that 828K selling is depressing the bitcoin price? If so, bitcoin is punier than I thought. In addition, a measly $2K investment by 360 people on earth populated by 7 billion will devour these few coins.

I think that much stronger flows are probably initial (early) BTC wallets selling. These can really provide a downside.

No, not 'selling', like what happens on the exchanges. The actual need to find ~1 million USD per day in fresh capital. Or, you know, closer to 2 million the months before. Or almost 4 million even earlier.

We had an inflation of almost 13% last year. How would this not have an effect on price, when taking place together with a correction turning into a full blown bear market?

Here's the simple argument why it has to be that way. If there were upwards of 1 million USD per day fresh capital coming in each day, the only reason we could still be declining in price would be if all the exchanges would be running some gigantic manipulation game to keep price down (fractional reserve plus shorting could do that, perhaps). I consider that a lot less likely than the absence of a million dollar coming in per day.

EDIT: Sloppy reading on my side. Your argument is that old coins cashing out add to the effect. I doubt that, days destroyed and large very old wallets being untouched aren't supporting that idea, afaik.

[NotHatinJustTrollin]

Yep supply keeps steadily increasing as miners print money are awarded for all the electricity they're wasting hard work.


But you wanna know something even more amazing? The amount of fiat sitting on exchanges has been consistently, steadily and relentlessly decreasing for more than a year, and it's not getting better.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=934650.msg10248181#msg10248181

How do you like that?
Go figure that shit out.



Price goes down? Gotta be them savvy daytraders screwing with our investment Goddamnit!

[Biodom]

...
honestly, i really don't get why people are focusing on 3600 number so much. Yes, someone has to buy these coins, but it is a puny number (The equivalent of $828K). Are you saying that 828K selling is depressing the bitcoin price? If so, bitcoin is punier than I thought. In addition, a measly $2K investment by 360 people in 7bil earth will devour these few coins. ...

It's either a lot or a little, but it's still 12%.  12% of total coins in existence had to be bought up in 2014 to keep the price steady.

correct, but the $$ numbers are tiny right now, 2014 is long gone (it was more like $3-4 mil a year ago). If the number of users is increasing, such small flows are not a problem. My point is that it was most likely not these tiny flows, but rather much larger flows form earlier adopters.
EDIT: I see that OP provided an argument that this is not the case.
I make no bullish or bearish argument here.

In my opinion, sometimes markets represent just some random walk on trend and, as we know, the longer any trend continues, the more likely it will continue in the immediate future (this is true).
Witness priceline decrease to $6 (split adjusted) from $900 in 1999-2000 and then back to above $1000, or Akamai from $300 to below $1, back to $58. Yeah, i can rationalize this ad hoc, but could you predict $1 when it was at $300 and $60 when it was $1-probably not. If I could, i would have been probably close to a billionaire right now.

If someone suggested that the sharp decline in bitcoin price has made its future more uncertain, I would probably agree with this argument.

[sgbett]

I'm considering possibilities, not posting forgone conclusions.

I observed a change in my sentiment, I questioned why, I remembered something I read about that. I dug it out and posted it as a take on what it could be.

What I noticed was that instead of reading the OP  and considering it on its own merits, a small cohort of people immediately jumped in and posted exactly the same things they posted on every other thread all day long.

Can you explain why I am suddenly no longer worried about it going lower, even though now it feels more hopeless than ever. Before on every run up I was hoping that "this was the end" stages 6-10, but inside I think I knew that we had a long way to go and that it probably wasnt. Every 'calling the bottom' thread was just a manifestation of hope, pleading for it to be so.

Every big selloff, I hoped that was the captulation that had to happen, but again I kind of knew that it wasn't convincing enough.

Now things have changed. The move on the 15th look like it could actually be a capitulation bottom. Since then the general flavour of price action looks to have changed. Firstly the mini-run up. We haven't seen anything like that for a while. The sell of afterwards looks to me like profit taking and not continued downward momentum. Volume trailing off again. In the past its looked different, half hearted upward moves, with consistently petering volume. Selloffs follow, trend resumes.

Now I don't expect bears to change there tune at any time. To stay true to form they have to go through the painful steps 14-17.

It feels like I've done my time, and so now I hand the uncertainty and indecision over to the bears. Whilst I patiently wait for what will come next.

Bitocin isn't broken, the market price at any given point during its adoption is only of interest to traders:

No, the majority of people responsible for those price increases (and consequent dumps) don't seem to care about using bitcoin or how many bitcoin they have, they care about how many dollars they are gonna get when they dump higher (or how many dollars they get when they close their shorts).

I don't usually respond to troll accounts, but I will this one time.  The rises might be from traders who don't really care about bitcoin, but the majority of Average Joe retail buyers would LOVE and envision a future world where the bitcoin they bought not only continues to rise in value relative to fiat currency, but they can also exchange it DIRECTLY for everything in life (goods, services, rent, utilities, gas, food, car, travel, etc.)  THAT is what the Average Joe wants bitcoin for, they don't really want to just exchange it back for more fiat currency.  That defeats the whole purpose in their eyes.

I agree with 'Trollin. the pumps and dumps are speculative. I agree with Torque. Some people aren't traders. Both can be true, just because speculators speculate on the price of something it doesn't preclude the possibility that the thing itself might actually have some value.

I am definitely one of the 'morpheus meme' types. I don't buy BTC to flip for profit. I bought because I believed in it, I still do. All I have to do is manage myself and my emotions and stay calm whilst the rest of the market gyrates. Such gyration is understandable *if* this is actually the new paradigm that it could possibly be.

For those who insist on reading my posts as recommendations to buy, I'm at a loss. I've made it clear countless times that what I post on speculation is just an idea, not a guarantee. I think out loud, I am not afraid to be wrong, and I take actions based on the premise that I probably will be such that if I am I don't lose.

So if anyone wants to make that wrong assumption about what I have done, and then extrapolate that into "how you feel making all them loose" then I can only feel embarrassed for how badly you've misjudged the situation.

As Oda says posting about how my buy in price is single digits will only get backlash, I wouldn't do that. I couldn't anyway, as its now negative $xxx! So please enough with the "losses" posts. Not being *able* to lose is the only thing that allows me to maintain an objective view on whether I should sell.

I shouldn't. Neither should anyone else that only invested what the could afford to lose and correctly said goodbye to every cent they swapped for magic BTCeans right at the start. If it goes to zero I have no sympathy for you, even if you disregard all the premiers as being trollposts (I don't they have there opinions, I have mine) then you should have paid attention to one of the biggest permbulls that has said on many occasions it could go to zero. Caveat Emptor.

Also, don't trade, especially not emotionally. See figure 1.

NB: I break this rule occasionally to sell on the way up, and buy on the way down. Formulaically, without jeopardising the principal BTC sum (and always later regretting the buys that came too early, but never regretting the sells made near the top).

I can very easily imagine a failure scenario and know exactly what where that leaves me. Can any of you permabears actually imagine a 'worldwide adoption' scenario and how that might unfold? and, what effect that would have on you? Would you ever capitulate buy, at which point would you turn your amateur hour psychology tools on yourself and realise that the dissonance was in the mirror all along? Whats your plan for coping with the trauma of missed opportunity, because that could be almost suicide inducing in some - given the temper tantrums y'all have when anyone dares to post suggesting that "price might go up"!

You know uber bears, either could happen. You don't have any idea which it will be, neither do I. Confirmation bias will be your undoing. Things happening that point to less *speculative* price action are all well and good. What does it say about the actual adoption of the technology. Can that continue without fundamental growth in value, that won't necessarily manifest itself as a result of a run up on bitstamp, but perhaps once BTC can be used in the form of a currency collapse whereby the dollar price starts to shoot up but the BTC price stays the same. Such that exchanges are pulled along by real world value and not the other way round like it is at the moment.

[8up]

THIS exactly describes my feelings, too. I feel so understood. Thanks, sgbett.

While I was worried at $350 it could go down even further. Down down down or less doesn't seem to be painful anymore - I don't care how deep in the ass it might go.  Actually I even hope to see $120 - just for the lulz.

BTW: Is the fog liftig? Actually, Bitcointalk seems more rational the last days (or is it just my perception!?). It seems, as if if people are spot on, in what they think and articulate. I even began enjoying reading here (first for a long long time).
 

[manis]

Dunno about anyone else but thats where I am!

For me its characterised by all the fear of price drop having gone, and an increasing sense of apathy. I log into BTC and can barely be bother to click any threads any more.

Everyone's seen the chart obviously...

http://optionalpha.com/the-14-stages-of-investor-emotions-and-trading-psychology-10433.html

I think this one is also a good match, in that stage 13 looks really familiar!

Stage 13?? We could be at 9 or 10 as well!

[TheWiseandUnwise]

Dunno about anyone else but thats where I am!

For me its characterised by all the fear of price drop having gone, and an increasing sense of apathy. I log into BTC and can barely be bother to click any threads any more.

Everyone's seen the chart obviously...

http://optionalpha.com/the-14-stages-of-investor-emotions-and-trading-psychology-10433.html

I think this one is also a good match, in that stage 13 looks really familiar!

https://i.imgur.com/eVpYdfxl.gif

Stage 13?? We could be at 9 or 10 as well!

We are going down. Step 9 or 10 is about where we are. However I doubt even the next crash is the bottom.

[oda.krell]

I can very easily imagine a failure scenario and know exactly what where that leaves me. Can any of you permabears actually imagine a 'worldwide adoption' scenario and how that might unfold? and, what effect that would have on you? Would you ever capitulate buy, at which point would you turn your amateur hour psychology tools on yourself and realise that the dissonance was in the mirror all along?

Great post overall, but that part stands out. Game, set, match, Mr. Bett. Or Gbett. Or something like that.

[Erdogan]

Nice thread.

To everybody who think the bear market will continue, but still bitcoin will come up again:

Waiting is loosing.

To profit from your vision, you have to get in before the herd, not after.

[Ultros]

Always comforting to see a few honest and straightforward people are still active on this forum. Thanks for this refreshing thread.

[8up]

Dunno about anyone else but thats where I am!

For me its characterised by all the fear of price drop having gone, and an increasing sense of apathy. I log into BTC and can barely be bother to click any threads any more.

Everyone's seen the chart obviously...

http://optionalpha.com/the-14-stages-of-investor-emotions-and-trading-psychology-10433.html

I think this one is also a good match, in that stage 13 looks really familiar!

Stage 13?? We could be at 9 or 10 as well!

We are going down. Step 9 or 10 is about where we are. However I doubt even the next crash is the bottom.

Exactly what is the point? Who cares where we are anymore?