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41  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Oscar Awards 2018 Betting on: March 01, 2018, 12:52:48 AM
I've found this thread because I was looking for where can I bet on the Oscars, but ufortunately I can't access nitrogensports from where I live.

Since for some reasons I don't like using VPN, I want to ask you guys where else can I bet on the Oscars?


Bovada, Betonline are a few others that have Academy Awards props that also take bitcoin. Not sure about location restrictions based on where you are though...
42  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Adjusting your betting unit size based on your current bankroll - Sports Betting on: March 01, 2018, 12:46:13 AM
Hm, interesting thoughts here. Some people like (Bolt Brownie) adjust it on a per time basis roughly (like a month) and is more conservative about increasing his/her bet size secondary to a bankroll (BR) increase while more liberal in decreasing his wager in response to a decreasing BR. I like it.

Yeah, personally I think 10% is a bit much to be wagering on any event, unless maybe it's like the "lock of the century" (and even still, I had those lose before, haha). But it's up to each bettors preference, right?
43  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Sports betting Strategy -> Betting early vs. late on: March 01, 2018, 12:35:58 AM

Very bad idea.

Value is easier to be found when betting EARLY, simply because less bets have been placed, and therefore the odds are still not close to real probabilities of the different outcomes.

Pinnacle allows VERY HIGH STAKES close to the start of an event for a reason: because they know the lines are very close to the real probabilities of the different possible outcomes, therefore they will make money thanks to the margin applied on each odds.

When I was betting at Pinnacle, I found great value when they open the odds, especially in Davis Cup (tennis) and I remember they allowed me only 400 EUR stakes for one bet, not more until the odds dropped. Actually I could make the odds move by myself just with a bet of 400 EUR. It of course does not happen (on big markets) close to the start of an event.

It's extremely difficult to find a value bet close to the start of the event.

PS: Live betting is only recommended at Betfair Exchange, everywhere else they increase the margin on odds, which makes it impossible to get value.

To be honest, I think ReactorJuno hit the nail on the head. While ROI is probably the most effective marker of a bettor's long-term success, something that is often overlooked in our results-oriented mindset is that successful bettors in general CONSISTENTLY beat the closing odds, and that is something you can only do when you bet early. By the time the game starts, the closing line is the most ACCURATE line (factoring in lineups/injuries, volume and amount of bets from all others, etc), but if you can beat that line consistently, that is a good sign.

You won't ALWAYS beat it and sometimes you may unfortunately lock in a worse line (e.g. you take HOU -5.5 in NBA early on and then Harden randomly gets ruled out so it closes at HOU -2.5), but if with your modeling/knowledge of a particular sport you can identify which lines have value and bet them before they shift to the closing line, that is the mark of a long-term successful bettor.

I'm really not a strong math/stats person, but someone referenced me these articles from Pinnacle that I find pretty informative, hope you do as well:

https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/Betting-Strategy/what-distinguishes-winning-from-losing-players/6BT2G5BMD43MYSKT
https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/educational/beating-closing-line-profit-expectation/Y3U2RWVK4HCW76XU
44  Other / Off-topic / Re: Topic & Post Review (Specific Areas) - sMerit to give on: March 01, 2018, 12:12:32 AM
Glad to have you join the discussion! I enjoy hearing others' thoughts especially when it comes to growing my bankroll more effectively.
45  Other / Meta / Re: I've still got 80 sMerit to give away. on: March 01, 2018, 12:09:53 AM
Hopefully with our communal effort, it can return to that time soon. Thanks for sharing.

I agree, consolidation of threads would be nice (guessing it's the mods that do that?). Like in the "Beginners & Help" thread, maybe there can be a sticked post at top for newbies to introduce themselves if they wish. Seems like a lot of the posts recently in that thread are just that.

I think it's a shared responsibility with users though to at least do an honest search to see if a topic that is relatively recent already exists before creating a new one. Or reading the stickied posts at the top first before doing anything. They are stickied for a reason.
46  Other / Meta / Re: I've still got 80 sMerit to give away. on: February 28, 2018, 08:25:18 AM

I don't think you quite understnd the purpose of this forum. I'm here to learn about Bitcoin, and to talk about it. I don't work for Bitcoin Talk, but I would like to see the board go back to being a useful asset for Bitcoin. I'm not going to spend time trying to teach people how to rank up sso that they can spam the boards with a load of spammy promotions that clutter the board. If I give merit, it's because I've seen a post that I feel is helping to rebuild Bitcoin Talk.

btw. I put you on ignore for disrespect.

Have been lurking and participating at Bitcoin Talk for less than a year, tell us more about the golden days of this forum. Hard to imagine it without the "spammy promotions" to be quite honest, though that'd be quite nice...

A member here introduced me to "The Safelist" and "The Badlist" on badbitcoin.org as a useful resource in differentiating between credible and scammy crypto sites. Yes, Bitcoin Talk is on the former and not the latter, but I found its description pretty amusing:

"Bitcointalk The original bitcoin forum, but be very wary of posting, unless you have a strong constitution, and then only if you really like shedloads of abuse from arrogant halfwits. This is also a favourite haunt of the bitcoin thieves who like to announce their crooked schemes and catch the 'newbies' - Sad but true."

 Grin Cheesy

http://badbitcoin.org/safelist/index.htm
47  Economy / Services / Re: TRADE: sMerit for Info on: February 28, 2018, 07:25:47 AM
ETC information:

1) http://etc.today/#/

A useful newsletter that aggregates up-to-date information on anything related to ETC, which includes some of the articles already linked to you by others in the thread and others like:

ETC price predictions heading towards March 5:
https://www.cryptorecorder.com/2018/02/24/ethereum-classic-etc-to-hit-75-as-excitement-builds-towards-march-5/

Long term outlook for ETC:
https://medium.com/@pyskell/long-term-outlook-for-ethereum-classic-b6f1643f8f70

Feel it could definitely make your life easier in finding multiple articles for you streamlined in one location.

Hope this helps!
48  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: sMerit for art ! on: February 28, 2018, 06:55:42 AM
Thanks for this incentive, enjoyed creating this video regarding an IMPORTANT topic for all Bitcoin users, especially newbies (the importance of double checking those BTC addresses). Hope you find it educational!

https://streamable.com/x54l7

Open to any and all feedback you have  Smiley
49  Other / Off-topic / Re: Topic & Post Review (Specific Areas) - sMerit to give on: February 28, 2018, 03:07:47 AM
No worries, thanks for giving those threads a look!

Since I'm pretty interested in sports betting strategy and didn't find anything recent in bitcointalk, I started the following two threads:

1) Pros/cons in betting lines earlier vs. later (closer to scheduled start time):
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=3033400.msg31206049#msg31206049

2) Adjusting your betting unit size based on your current bankroll - Sports Betting (bankroll management)
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=3035512.msg31225418#msg31225418

Hope you'll join our discussion if you find either (or both) interesting!
50  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Oscar Awards 2018 Betting on: February 28, 2018, 03:01:36 AM
Yeah, the odds really aren't great, but I really consider it almost a 100% lock that he will win it for Best Director so if you can get an opportunity to grow your bankroll by 10% for (in my eyes) a near certain win, it's worth the risk for me, IMO. But I definitely can understand why others may take a pass on it, especially if they don't share my sentiment.

Yeah, I think Baby Driver has some good value over Dunkirk in that category for like 0.5 unit or so.
51  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Sports betting Strategy -> Betting early vs. late on: February 28, 2018, 01:54:22 AM
Live betting definitely is a whole different beast in itself, definitely.

I personally place wagers as early as possible in hopes of yield closing line value and +EV bets, but that's just my preference.
52  Economy / Gambling discussion / Adjusting your betting unit size based on your current bankroll - Sports Betting on: February 28, 2018, 01:51:49 AM
I personally use 2% of my bankroll (BR) as 1 unit for me (which I feel is the general standard), though I know others are more conservative and set it at 1% = 1 unit while others are comfortable being riskier in using 5% = 1 unit.

Haven't really seen any threads on this recently and I know BR management is pretty unique to each bettor, but I'm curious when the community here decides to pull the trigger and change your betting size based on your current sports betting BR (as the title says).

I've seen betters say that change should happen anytime your BR increases or decreases by 25%, others go as conservative as requiring a 50% increase while maintaining the 25% decrease rule.

Example: If someone changes their bet size at BR changes of 25% AND 2% = 1 unit for him/her, then starting with a $10,000 BR, this individual would continue treating 1 unit as $200 until the BR was at $12,500 or $7,500, at which point he/she would consider adjusting to the new BR.

Thoughts? The first few bets after a size increase always make me a little nervous, haha.
53  Economy / Gambling discussion / Sports betting Strategy -> Betting early vs. late on: February 27, 2018, 06:19:14 PM
For you sports bettors out there, do you prefer to lock in your lines early or closer to the scheduled start time?

Early:
- chance of yielding closing line value (CLV) in locking in a line that beats the market, giving you +EV bets

Late:
- more confidence in lineups, injury situations

I guess it depends on how confident your picks long-term will yield CLV based on whatever model/projections/analysis/tipsters you use. I imagine most casual betters just place their wagers closer to game-time, though they will never yield CLV.
54  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Oscar Awards 2018 Betting on: February 27, 2018, 05:58:00 PM
Thanks for starting this thread. Guillermo del Toro is a lock for Best Director, IMHO. Put some $ down on him before the British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTAs), but he strengthened his case as the runaway favorite when he took the award over Nolan (who is a British director).

Odds have definitely reflected that from the -200ish -> -1000+ drop since then, but I still think there is value there if you can find it at -1000 or less (Bovada, BetOnline) for a 10%+ ROI.

Coco is another lock, but the odds are ridiculous on that one now (like -4000, -5000 range).

BOL
55  Economy / Gambling / Re: FreeBitco.in - Win free Bitcoins every hour! on: February 27, 2018, 05:27:48 PM
Agreed, I think the referral shareback is key. It kind of comes down to how you set yourself apart from the rest of the pack. Sure, if you have a huge social media or blog following that may be enough, but referral shareback is a good alternative as a differentiating factor. The person who referred me offered 100% shareback on everything (dice rolls, daily interest, Hi-Lo game, though I never do the last one).

I use the faucet like a madman and I'm guessing he/she has accrued a decent amount of lotto tickets + RP in the short time I've been his/her referral. Especially on those multiplier days, haha.
56  Economy / Services / Re: open again: Merit System Upgrade in Altcoin Section: Receive Merit from me on: February 26, 2018, 08:12:26 PM
Not sure if this thread is still open and/or it has to be with Altcoin discussion specifically and/or it is only applicable to Full Members and above (which I am not), so I apologize in advance if it's not what you are looking for!

Please read my post history to maybe discover some interesting #knowledge, but here are a few posts:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=3021933.msg31084755#msg31084755
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=3018498.msg31074218#msg31074218
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=3005900.msg31073600#msg31073600

These two are on the same topic:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=3007976.msg30932005#msg30932005
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=3007976.msg30937395#msg30937395

Regardless of your decision, thanks for doing this! Happy to be a growing member of the bitcointalk community, which is awesome.
57  Other / Off-topic / Re: sMerit Post-Review on: February 26, 2018, 07:04:47 PM
Not sure if this is still going on (thank you for doing this by the way), but below are some posts to review if you are willing (some mine, some others' posts):

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=3021933.msg31084755#msg31084755
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1202855.msg31025762#msg31025762
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=3007976.msg30932005#msg30932005
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2896261.msg29847174#msg29847174
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2989761.msg30737168#msg30737168

Cheers!
58  Other / Meta / Re: TMAN's Level up challenge.-- UPDATED... on: February 26, 2018, 06:46:52 PM
Just saw this post, though I'm not sure if it is still going on. Think most of my responses on the forums have been thoughtful and detailed thus far - have a look.

Regardless of whatever you decide, thanks for your consideration!
59  Other / Beginners & Help / Reminder to new crypto users: Double, triple check addresses! A Lesson: Malware on: February 26, 2018, 05:50:43 AM
I'm sure this has been discussed at length in these forums before, but just a friendly reminder to double, triple check those BTC addresses whenever sending/receiving BTC (holds true for other crypto too).

Just had a friend who found out he lost 0.1 BTC while trying to withdraw from an online sportsbook to his wallet. Turns out he had malware in his computer that pastes a different BTC address than the one you copied. Trojans like CryptoShuffler and Evrial (which sells for like $27 US on the darkweb) target your computer's clipboard and once you send your BTC to the spoofed address, it's gone (remember, BTC transactions are irreversible). Malware like this can affect other crypto addresses (like litecoin, etc) AND even Steam items trade URLs. Scary.

Apart from the standard security stuff (anti-virus, anti-malware programs, always using VPN with unsecured wifi, making sure OS is always up to date, etc), I must admit I wasn't always very attentive to verifying the address I am pasting is the same one I copied, but hearing his story (and others' online) has prompted me to start confirming every. single. character.

Stay safe, friends.
60  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Bitcoin is a scam?! on: February 25, 2018, 11:38:44 PM
As people have stated, probably should just ask those people why they think it's a scam.

BTC has great monetary value, utility, and potential for further growth, but its value can be very volatile and unpredictable, especially in the short-term. One of the great strengths of BTC (the anonymity it affords) can also be used and seen in a negative light, as hackers/cyber-terrorists can utilize cryptocurrencies including BTC to fund their operations. Which is why the public perception and media towards BTC is not always so positive.

I am confident it is NOT a scam, but as with any relatively new commodity, it needs to be approached with thoughtfulness and planning. I was in your shoes not that long ago and there are many people in my life today that think I am a fool for getting into BTC. Nothing comes without some risk - this is true whether you invest in stocks, derivatives, real estate, etc.

Feel free to PM with any questions or concerns.
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