This will go out to all holder of MINE/SELL on Havelock, but I wanted to post it here as well. Just a short description of the End-Game, which is coming up within about 3-4 weeks.
To all holders of B.MINE and B.SELL:
Just a reminder from your friendly Fund Manager, twentyseventy, regarding BDD’s End-Game Scenario:
As of tomorrow, May 4, 2015, there will be approximately 25 Days of MINE Dividends remaining at the current level of dividends. The actual amount will depend on the difficulty change later today, the next difficulty change after that, and the amount of EXCH sold (and MINE/SELL pairs bought back, if any).
Everything in this notice is public knowledge, available via either the information in the Bitcointalk thread OP or via some basic math. I’m simply trying to ensure that those that hold MINE and SELL understand the ramifications of the end of this BDD Round before the End-Game later this month.
BDD is designed to let people speculate on the difficulty of the Bitcoin network. Those that believe that it will continue to increase at a significant clip should hold SELL, and those that believe that difficulty will not increase as rapidly should hold MINE.
Payouts to MINE or SELL in the form of dividends are how those who speculate receive the ‘answer’ to whether or not they chose correctly. MINE pays out daily dividends based on the difficulty until all funds are exhausted. SELL receives dividends when the difficulty increases to a point where there are more than 200 days of MINE dividends on hand, per unit. At that point, MINE’s position is relatively secure from a dividend standpoint, so SELL units receive the excess capital above this amount.
Q: What happens after the ~25 Days of Dividends are paid out to MINE?
A: The ‘End Game’ happens – this is described in the OP as the ‘End-Game via Decrease’. Daily dividends are paid out to MINE until there is no more capital for a full dividend; then, a final, partial dividend is paid out to MINE using the remaining funds (less than a full dividend). MINE will then have received all funds and all MINE units are bought back at 0. All SELL units are bought back for 0 as well.
Q: Is there a chance that there could be more MINE Dividend Days left?
A: Yes, but a small one. In order for there to be more dividends paid out, the difficulty would need to increase (increasing the total dividend days, but decreasing the payout). Sales of EXCH and buybacks of MINE/SELL pairs can increase this amount, but only very slightly.
Q: How can I estimate how much I will receive for each of my MINE units?
A: Since it’s extremely probably that the End-Game via Decrease will happen, meaning that MINE receives all funds and SELL receives 0, you can look at the NAV/U posted daily in the bitcointalk thread. The NAV/U is the value of all the assets divided by the number of total units available (Net Asset Value per Unit). You should NOT purchase shares of MINE on the market for a price above this number!
Q: What will happen to my SELL shares?
A: Your SELL shares will be bought back for 0. Because the Difficulty has been decreasing or stagnating, SELL will not receive anything(*) further - this is why the market price of SELL has decreased so rapidly over the past few months. Those that have paid attention have seen that MINE would soon be receiving all remaining payouts and SELL would not receive anything further.
Q: Is there any chance that my SELL shares will pay a dividend at all? (*)
A: (*) There is a non-zero chance that SELL will pay a dividend again, but it is extremely small (less than 1% in my opinion). It would require multiple consecutive high-percentage increases in the difficulty over the next difficulty periods. SELL shares should be practically valued very near, if not at, zero.
I hope I’ve helped answer some questions you may have. Again, this should not have been a surprise to anyone that understands BDD, but I wanted to ensure that there would not be a big shock to anyone when the Round ends in about 25 Days.
I am considering starting a new BDD Round after this one has closed out; I’ll be sure to make an announcement if so.
If you have any questions, drop by the BDD Bitcointalk thread or email me at
bitcoinderiv@gmail.comhttps://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=430137.0 Happy speculating,
twentyseventy / 2070
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