There is no nobel price for economics.. there is only a price sponsored by a huge bank in sweden named after nobel
1. You are correct, there has never been a "nobel price" for economics, only a price "in memory of Alfred Nobel". The reason is that Nobel himself didn't think the field of economics was WORTHY of any price. Seeing the current state of economic theory it's hard not to agree with him. 2. If it WAS a Nobel price it still wouldn't mean anything. It just someone somewhere decided to give you some money. See some of the recent "peace price" awards for examples (Obama and the EU!? Really?). People put way too much emphasis on being "accepted" by authority. 3. Getting the price is no proof you're not a blithering idiot, see Paul Krugman. 4. Even if Shiller's price was legitimate, it doesn't mean he'll be correct about everything he'll ever says. Smart people are frequently wrong, as proven by the fact that smart people frequently DISAGREE about almost everything. They can't all be right. It's prize, damn it. You americans totally forgot engrish by now. I was always told there was a price for everything |
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Dammit when will we see the 700s again. Everyone knows that this is the fair value of bitcoin at the moment, yet we remain in the 800s.
Source? Everyone - obviously..... |
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i think it's definitely a fund buying coins
If I was a fund and wanted to buy coins, I would not choose an exchange where they are 15% more expensive... nor one where I could not get my customers fiat out if I had fund redemptions... |
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C'mon whales! Can you crash Bitcoin to $550 or let it go to the moon already?
This is so boring, no one is making real money in a sideways movement (850-950), this is getting worse that one "Tired of $140" thread as far i remember, should we start a new "Tired of $900" one?
Patience is a virtue! In 2 weeks time thinks should be a bit clearer. I still believe there is money waiting on the sidelines. Yeah, there is a lot of money just waiting the 'right' moment to buy or get in. But mathematically there are not enought coins for all of us waiting the price to touch the 200 daily MA (aka bubble finally deflated) with a little fiat to spare, so what to do? I pretty much preffer the price collapsing and bubbles deflating in a month that those long and painfull declines. Charts and candles looks bullish on day/3 day/week timeframes but it is getting sooo slowly. And i'm pretty sure once we reach $1100 again bears will come out of the forest to make profits and bring us again to $850, again, soooo boring. Don't worry another 120 days or so of this inertia and this level will be the 200 day MA |
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my point being that one of bitcoin's price drivers is mistrust of the banking/financial system - As the Chinese financial system comes under stress even the average Chinese will find ways to buy assets outside the scope of that banking system, Exchanges or none. Gold, Real Estate and Cryptocurrencies, will all be options.
At the present there are far safer ways of getting out of the Chinese banking system via the black market in Hong Kong or Singapore. At leas then they are assured they get close to the original value back, with bitcoin there's a high risk of losing half your input in the coming weeks. Of course there are all those bribes and large bid/offer fees to consider - and it takes a lot longer, and the person you are using might just vanish with your money, but yes its a lot safer than bitcoin |
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Geologists say there is enough gold in the earth's crust and mantle to cover the surface of the planet eight feet deep. So much gold, yet in the history of man we have only mined around 9300 m3 of gold. About the size of big Ben. Just because things are in the mantle or even the crust. Doesn't mean we will ever get access to it, and if we did its would be so costly then yes gold would be a good thing to own. [/quote] A cube 21m x21m x 21m is the most common description (blame Wikipedia) The same article states that most of the gold in the planet is within the core (and therefore unobtainable at current tech levels) , that which is mined currently is widely to be considered the result of meteorite impacts. |
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BTC going to be 220,96$, just like it was before the fake chinese pump. before China the Price was indeed about 220 $. But now ex-China the Price has surged forward to about 900 $. Thats the marketprice backed by the USA and it shows the strenght of bitcoin. Why should it go down to the Price before China went into the market?We are not ex-China at all... Perhaps in two weeks from now. and what happens when Chinese Savings Trusts start going bust at the end of the month? There is a reason the Chinese have just had to put CNY255bn into their money market.
Your average Chinaman is not into bitcoin, they are mostly geeks/gamblers/upper class types. The average Chinese invests more in things like gold and housing, not bitcoin. my point being that one of bitcoin's price drivers is mistrust of the banking/financial system - As the Chinese financial system comes under stress even the average Chinese will find ways to buy assets outside the scope of that banking system, Exchanges or none. Gold, Real Estate and Cryptocurrencies, will all be options. |
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and what happens when Chinese Savings Trusts start going bust at the end of the month? There is a reason the Chinese have just had to put CNY255bn into their money market.
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luck fluctuation - BTC Guild have 3.365 THsh in their pool vs 14.1 Thsh total -> 24%, but have only mined 20% of blocks in the last 24hrs, looks like ghash.io are being lucky. But by all means panic and sell BTC. so how much THsh do ghash have in their pool? About 5100 Thash, or 36% - so yes they are being lucky at the moment I would guess it is people switching back from Eligius as Eligius seems to be a little unlucky at the moment, and BTCGuild charges to much in fees |
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luck fluctuation - BTC Guild have 3.365 THsh in their pool vs 14.1 Thsh total -> 24%, but have only mined 20% of blocks in the last 24hrs, looks like ghash.io are being lucky. But by all means panic and sell BTC. |
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Let us consider a miner looking today to buy new mining equipment. Our miner decides that their best mining option is a pre-order mining rig from KNC Miner, a Neptune (for our purposes our miner lives in the EU)
2nd batch Neptune costs $9995+VAT, -> $11,994 (VAT at 20%)
Our miner phones KNC speaks to them and hesitates a guess that the miner (a late 2nd batch order) will be delivered sometime in mid May (optimistic)
Our miner then looks at the growth of difficulty and estimates that mining power will continue to grow at an average of 1% a day between now and mid May (much lower than the current rate - optimistic ), meaning by 14th May difficulty will have reached 6,655,250,955, and in the first return period the Neptune will earn 3.17 BTC, the miner has free power.
The miner then assumes that difficulty will grow at a similar rate thereafter.
Therefore over its life the Neptune will earn 3.17/.1 -> 31.7BTC
The production cost per bitcoin is therefore $378.35 , the miner would not sell Bitcoin above this price
If the growth rate is 1.5% per day on a continuous basis the miner estimates the return will be approx 11.2 BTC over the life of the Neptune, the production cost per bitcoin (again free power) at his assumption is therefore 11,994/11.2, -> $1070.89
If the growth rate continues ad infinitum at the current rate of growth approx 1.8% per day, the return would be approx 6.2 BTC
-> $1,934.52 per BTC min sale price.
Two things -
1) this would only determines the price at which newly mined coins would be released to the market by new miners who take delivery of equipment in May - existing miners who have already hit ROI may sell at any price, but their share of produced coin will be declining.
2) on the 1.5% growth assumption we are adding 25,000 Thash every 11 days to the network by mid June, is that really likely?
All this really tells us is that there is a floor price below which newly mined coins will not be added to the market - this floor price is determined by expectation of Return/ghash in BTC and the cost/ghash in $ of the most efficient mining hardware.
This is not a floor on the price of bitcoin as supply from existing holders may still exceed demand.
As mining supply per week is a continuously shrinking % of the outstanding bitcoin stock shouldn't mining cost have less and less impact on the price of bitcoin?
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take your pick from these potential reasons
1) Chinese currency is not freely convertible - and there are limitations on how much can be moved out of the country by individuals (I think $50,000 equivalent a year). By buying bitcoin, transferring the bitcoin outside of China and selling for USD people were able to get around this cap.
2) Some suggest that the Chinese currency is overvalued against the USD and that the Chinese government may seek to devalue in some fashion - people fearing this want to move more of their savings out of Renminbi and into USD or alternatives like BTC.
3) A lot of people compare Bitcoin to gold, and people love to buy gold.
There are probably a lot of other reasons as well
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Interesting, but again since there are not really "bitcoin laws" yet, maybe
they do not have to follow standard procedure.
Its property - and they don't have the power to change the form of any other property to USD. They cannot sell a car for example as if found innocent they have to return it, the same applies here. |
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Does bitcoin contain features that make it a deflationary currency? Yes
This means that if Bitcoin was the only form of global exchange , and assuming that the global economy continued to grow then 1 Bitcoin would buy more goods next year than it does today.
So to maintain purchasing power one must spend bitcoin (if I do not my purchasing power increases)
If the global economy is shrinking, then one bitcoin will acquire less goods next year than it will now so to maintain purchasing power I must hoard bitcoin, not spend. -> negative feedback loop
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Negative interest rates. The deflationary nature of the currency will mean that rates will have to be negative in order for people to see a return if borrowing in bitcoin.
More likely in a bitcoin based economy people do not take on debt - which has massive implications for the global economy.
One of the primary problems of any deflationary currency is how to get people to spend them.
In a world where bitcoin is the only currency unit.
If the World's Total GDP grows -> Value of a Bitcoin grows.
So why would I spend a bitcoin if next year I can buy more with it? (the price of that new Ferrari in BTC will have fallen) This leads to no discretionary spending - people buy food and power and not much else. This leads to contractions in GDP - and prices rise.
The Equilibrium of this system then becomes no growth - World GDP static, because the incentive to invest and spend and develop is removed from the equation.
You can see this in the trading behaviour on the speculation forum, epitomised by the want moar coinz attitude of many of the traders.
If bitcoin does "win" eventually then owning 1 coin is enough to ensure that you and your successors will never want for anything.
These traders acquire/hoard coins never spending them always looking to acquire/hoard more. They are not investing BTC to make more BTC they are attempting to use fluctuations in the BTC/USD to acquire more BTC.
This attitude towards acquiring more coins is detrimental to the health of the bitcoin economy the interests of which are best served by a large well diversified group of coin holders, who actively use their coins to acquire goods rather than hoard them.
It is different to acquiring more fiat because we must contiually acquire more fiat to maintain purchasing power, with BTC to maintain purchasing power we must continually dispose of BTC.
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Don't understimate the utility value to the Chinese of Bitcoin as a method to convert CNY to USD and move it out of the country. Individuals are capped at USD 50,000 equivalent that can be converted in any year. Buying bitcoin with CNY, sending it to another exchange and selling to Euro, USD or whatever allows this quite effectively.
Other methods are very expensive and convoluted and involve doing deals with third parties who arrange for you to deposit money into a strangers bank account in China whilst having another stranger deposit money in your overseas account.
All in all using BTC is cheaper (although at 25% differential between Stamp and BTCChina that may not be true) involves far more time and has a much greater risk of your money simply vanishing.
Of course if this does get to large the Chinese government may choose to do something highly negative about it - but in the meantime enjoy the scramble.
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You are falling into the psychological trap of "needing to own whole bitcoins". Think of it as buying an mBTC for $2, not a BTC for 200. Time to change the exchanges so we buy mBTC and show mBTC in the wallets. Psychologically then the whole thing becomes much more palatable.
Normal people don't buy whole bars of gold (ingots) they buy by the ounce. Now we should buy BTC by the mBTC not by the coin.
Protip: 1000 mBTC = 1 BTC apologies I never was that good at that newfangled math stuff |
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You are falling into the psychological trap of "needing to own whole bitcoins". Think of it as buying an mBTC for $2, not a BTC for 200. Time to change the exchanges so we buy mBTC and show mBTC in the wallets. Psychologically then the whole thing becomes much more palatable.
Normal people don't buy whole bars of gold (ingots) they buy by the ounce. Now we should buy BTC by the mBTC not by the coin.
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