Bitcoin Price Update for September 30, 2016 

Market Commentary (BTC): 

As we approach the end of the week, as well as the end of September, bitcoin's price continues to stagnate in the 600 - 610 $ range much the way it has over the past few weeks.  We still think that we get a breakout in one direction or the other-other the next several days, however we are less convinced of an imminent upside break given that we think there is now a greater likelihood of a washout move lower prior to our move up into the 620 - 630 $ resistance area.  Despite this change to the forecast we will stay in the VST ProTrade off of the 596 $ level until the market tells us it is ready to head lower by stopping us out at the new 600 $ stoploss level.  As we have said many times throughout the week, we feel pretty good about our positioning for now regardless of short term directionality.

Moving on to the technicals, we can see on the daily chart below that price is still treading water inside the large symmetrical triangle it has been trapped in for months, as well as inside the pivot area that it has been flirting with for weeks. Also note that SCMR is painting neutral candles on what continues to be a contraction of price action, and we still do not have any semblance of strong dynamic support or resistance near current levels.  Adding to the confusion is a flatlined 9/18 EMA cross and a still bullish and rising 200-day SMA, both of which continue to tell the story of an extended bull market consolidation.

Getting to momentum and volume, notice that Willy is already approaching oversold territory despite the stable price, RSI is chopping around the 50-line, MACD is at its zero line, and PPO is still neutral. Additionally, trading volumes remains very anemic and volume profile is still showing some rather substantial notches, however the good ole A/D line continues to push steadily to the upside signaling buyers remain in this region. 

The mixed nature of the short to medium term technicals is what is giving us pause regarding a breakout rally materializing right from these levels over the next day or two.  We think a minor washout down into the 570 - 590 $ range, which is where the ST OTE long zone, triangle uptrend line, and volume profile all reside, would set the market up nicely going into October.  A quick tag of this area prior to a move above 610 $ would recharge all of the indicators and would create one final touch point in the triangle formation before departing from it altogether.

As previously mentioned, despite this slight change in forecast, we want to let the market tell us whether we are right or wrong.  We have raised our stop-loss level on the active VST ProTrade to the 600 $ level so that we can exit with a small gain if necessary.  If not, and our original call for a weekend rally does indeed materialize, then we will already be in the trade so there will be no love lost.  Regardless, our general approach of buying weakness down into the mid to high 500's $ while selling strength up into the 620 - 630 $ area remains the way to play this market in our opinion until we get clearer signs that this consolidation is truly nearing its demise.

GLGT!

https://www.bullbearanalytics.com/

Chart: http://imgur.com/VyUK0Az

Market Commentary (BTC): 

No surprises this Thursday morning as bitcoin seems to be following our roadmap from earlier in the week, at least so far.  Our hunch was that the market remains flat going into the latter half of the week, but also that volatility would pick up as we moved into the weekend considering the market is simply too constricted right now to remain in this tight 600 - 610 $ trading range.  While it is still tough to get a good read on directionality, we remain in the bull camp for the time being due to the technicals which we will get to below.  Having said that, regardless of which way it breaks over the coming days, we still do not see price extending beyond the 570 $ level to the downside or 630 $ to the upside. 

Speaking of technicals, today we show the 4-hour chart for a look at the shorter term setup so that tomorrow we can focus on the daily chart in order to put everything into context.  First of all we can see that price is in yet another symmetrical triangle consolidation, in addition to the ones on the higher timeframes, and is very close to reaching its apex (~ October 1st) which means a breakout move is nearing. Also note that SCMR is painting neutral candles while we chop around between 600 - 610 $, dynamic support and resistance are nonexistent around current levels, and market structure is mixed to say the least. 

Moving on to momentum and volume, we can see that the 9/18 EMA cross has almost completely flatlined while the 200 SMA is still tracking withe the triangle uptrend line, both of which now sit just above the near term OTE long zone between 590 - 600 $.  Additionally, the momentum oscillators remain very mixed given that the Stochastic is moving lower while RSI and Willy drift slightly higher, and PPO is neutral once again following slightly overbought conditions earlier in the week.  Finally, trading volumes remain unimpressive and there is still a large volume profile notch between 570 - 590 $, however the A/D line continues to pick up steam to the upside which tells us that buyers are still accumulating rather heavily in this area.

For the time being we are sticking with our call for another day or two of sideways action followed by a move out of the triangles to test more substantial support and/or resistance zones.  We continue to suspect that the move will be to the upside considering the longer term charts are becoming more attractive while the A/D line on the nearer term charts continues to rise.  This is good news for our ProTrade longs, although as previously mentioned we would be surprised to see a move beyond the 620 - 630 $ area over the course of the weekend. 

If things go the other way, however, we will get stopped at breakeven on the VST trade so that we can preserve capital for redeployment down in one of our longer term buy zones.  All things considered, we still like our positioning going into what should be a relatively volatile weekend regardless of which direction the market decides to head, so for now we will sit tight and stay patient.

GLGT!

Chart: https://www.bullbearanalytics.com/free-reports/bitcoin-price-report-for-september-28-2016

Bitcoin Price Update for September 28, 2016 

Market Commentary (BTC): 

Bitcoin just can't seem to get out of the way of this 600 - 610 $ trading range, not for the time being at least.  Despite the fact that we don't yet see the impetus for a significant move in either direction at this time, we do think the technicals are telegraphing at least a minor breakout from the current restrictive trading area.  While we cannot rule out a break to the downside, we think it would be limited to our 570 - 580 $ buy zone.  Conversely, we do think an upside breakout is more likely, but again would be surprised if the bulls can push price up through multiple resistance levels in the 630 - 680 $ area prior to an indicator recharge going into October.

Getting to the details of the analysis, we can see on the 12-hour chart below that price is incredibly close to breaking above the symmetrical triangle downtrend line which would resolve us out of the pattern. Notice how price is temporarily suspended between the triangle trendline and the pivot area on neutral SCMR candles and mixed market structure, telling us that there is not much more room to run sideways at this time.  Additionally, SCMR is painting a double confirmed reversal following the cancellation from last weekend, typically a very powerful near term bullish signal, and the near term EMA's are trying to tick up slightly.

Moving on to momentum and volume, we can see that the oscillators remain mixed given Willy is moving up towards overbought territory while RSI continues to wander aimlessly around in no man's land, not to mention the fact that PPO is neutral but close to overbought and MACD continues to flirt with the zeroline.  Regarding volume, the A/D line remains in an uptrend while global trading volumes continue to rise, however volume profile still leaves much to be desired considering the notch between 580 and 600 $ as well as how thin things get outside of the value area.

As we head into the latter half of the trading week, there are a few things to keep in mind.  First of all, if the bulls can get through futures settlement tomorrow night while keeping price elevated above 600 $ then we will feel pretty good about our ProTrades going into the weekend.  Practically speaking, any noticeable upside movement from here should spark a FOMO rally as we break above the triangle formation, however the previously mentioned 630, 650, and 680 $ levels will all prove very difficult to push through. 

Having said that, we still have a tight stop on the VST trade in case things turn south unexpectedly, although we would not view this as such a bad thing either considering it would give us a chance to reload in the more attractive buy zones we have been mentioning for weeks.  Either way, we feel we are well positioned as we progress towards what could be a relatively volatile weekend.

GLGT!

Market Commentary (BTC): 

Bitcoin remains in the 600 - 610 $ range as the dull month of September approaches it's end and the new, more volatile month of October gets underway over the weekend.  While we are not expecting a sudden bout of volatility, we do think it will slowly creep back into the market as we get deeper into the month.  Until then, however, we think price action will remain subdued with the market staying within the 590 - 610 $ range, which is also where the symmetrical triangle trendlines are currently sitting.  As long as we stay in this area there won't be all that much to do on the trading front, although as this range tightens the likelihood of a breakout in either direction inevitably increases. 

Speaking of directionality, lets take a look at the 6-hour chart below for a glance at the short to medium term technicals.  As previously mentioned, price is still in the triangle consolidation off of the regional highs, and is also back in the upper half of the pivot zone.  Also notice that SCMR is painting neutral candles once again following what is still an active confirmed upside reversal, and we now have a fairly strong area of dynamic support sitting between 590 - 595 $.  Finally, the near term EMA's are still bullish for the time being, and the 200-period SMA is still pretty flat but is slightly bullish and supportive around 590 $.  This 590 $ level is now crucial considering it is becoming a confluence area which includes the triangle uptrend line, the 200 SMA, and the top of the OTE.

Moving on, we can see that the momentum oscillators remain mixed given that RSI and MACD are currently stuck at their centerlines, Willy is chopping around in no man's land (lockstep with price), and PPO is still neutral.  Additionally, trading volumes are picking up while the A/D line continues to push steadily to the upside, although there is also a large volume profile notch down between 575 - 590 $ that still is begging for some attention.  Despite a small technical bias to the upside, we think there are at least a few more days of sideways action.

To reiterate what we have been saying for the past few months, we think this period of stagnation remains an extended bull market consolidation which implies an eventual upside breakout above the ~800 $ regional high.  While we are not expecting this move to materialize over the next week, we do think that over the next few we could start to see some progress up and out of this range.  Having said that, there are still a bunch of resistance spiderwebs between 610 - 700 $ that should prove to be difficult to get through which is why we are still relatively cautious for the time being.

GLGT!

https://www.bullbearanalytics.com/

Bitcoin Price Update for September 26, 2016 

Market Commentary (BTC): 

Bitcoin is back in the 600 - 610 $ range following a short stint in the 590's $ last week.  Despite what looked like favorable conditions for a downside continuation into our longer term ProTrade buy zones, this outcome never materialized as bulls moved in quicker than expected.  Now we are back to playing the waiting game with the market given the near term forecast remains rather uncertain, although we think we are still well positioned currently regardless of where the market heads over the course of this week.  We will stay long in the VST long trade, and will stay ready to catch more substantial dips if they materialize.

Despite the fact that it looks like we may be in store for a bit more choppy consolidation, we do think the market is getting ready to make a move in the not too distant future.  Looking at the 12-hour chart below we can see that price remains within the symmetrical triangle that has been active since June, and we are now back above the pivot zone which provided support last week.  Also notice that SCMR has painted a confirmed upside reversal after a cancellation printed over the weekend, and we are finally getting bright green candles once again.  We also have active OTE long and short zones both above and below the market, as well as triangle trendline support and resistance that is closing in on price.

Conversely, the momentum oscillators remain rather unimpressive considering Willy and RSI are still chopping around in no man's land while MACD attempts an anemic push over the zeroline.  Additionally, the near term EMA's are still flat, the 200-period SMA is bearish and pushing lower, PPO is no longer showing buy signals, and market structure remains mixed.  Regarding volume things are looking a bit better given total exchange volumes are showing a small buyers breakout overnight and the A/D line continues to push to the upside, although volume profile still looks unattractive seeing as though there remains a large notch sitting just above PoC between 570 - 620 $.  The lower end of this range is still where we want to be longer term buyers, but for the time being it looks like it could be a struggle to get down there, which is why we are adjusting our VST ProTrade slightly to allow for more upside.

Generally speaking we remain longer term bulls on bitcoin, perhaps even more so now than a few weeks ago ("longer the base, higher in space"), but as has been the case over the past few months we are still in a waiting period.  We cannot rule out additional spikes into the mid to high-500's $, which is why our other ProTrade long setups remain in effect, however we realize that we may not get another shot down there prior to a breakout above 610 $ so for now we are comfortable holding the VST position above that level.

GLGT!

https://www.bullbearanalytics.com/

Bitcoin Price Update for September 23, 2016 

Market Commentary (BTC): 

While the bitcoin price remains in the 590 - 600 $ range that we identified yesterday, there have been some interesting developments on the slightly longer term charts that we think are worth noting.  We still think that a final washout down into our VST buy zone is possible, however it is looking less and less likely with each day that goes by in which price is above 590 $.  At this point we are almost ready to start nibbling longs down around current levels in case this thing starts pushing to the upside over the weekend, although we will wait to add more substantial positions until we we get down into the more favorable 570 - 580 $ region.

As is typically the case on Friday, we like to take a look at a more medium term chart in order to gain some context going into the weekend.  We can see on the updated daily chart below that price is still inside the symmetrical triangle, and is now below the light blue pivot area.  Additionally, SCMR is still painting primarily red candles, although we do have a potential upside reversal working today, and market structure remains relatively bearish so we want to stay somewhat cautious for the time being. Also notice how price is below the flatlined EMA's while the 200-day SMA continues to push to the upside, now sitting around 545 $, which could cause a squeeze if they continue to converge.  Despite these rather mixed signals, we do see some more bullish evidence which we discuss below. 

First of all, the triangle formation is nearing its apex so we know a breakout resolution is coming within the next 4 - 6 weeks and we still prefer the upside.  This preference is due to a number of factors, one of which is a steadily increasing A/D line that has been in an uninterrupted uptrend since June, and another is the fact that the momentum oscillators are bullishly recharging despite little movement to the downside in price.  Also notice that PPO is back to neutral from overbought, MACD is still bullishly divergent, and there is alot of technical confluence, and thus support, between 500 - 580 $.

While we are currently not expecting a selloff all the way down to the low-500's $ at this time, we are still hopeful that we get a shot to reload in the slightly lower ST ProTrade buy area between 570 and 580 $. Having said that, we are getting a creeping feeling that we might not get another chance down there before the market tests higher levels once again, which is why we want to try to catch a small long scalp around current levels (much like we did with our previous VST PT).  Generally speaking we think the market is getting close to breaking out of this multi-month consolidation, but there are likely a few more weeks of chop before we get the impulse move we are looking for to catalyze the next leg of the bull market.

GLGT!

https://www.bullbearanalytics.com/

Bitcoin Price Update for September 21, 2016 

Market Commentary (BTC): 

"It moved!  I think it moved!"  At long last, after 10 days of being trapped in the 600 - 610 $ range, the market is finally moving out of this area to explore other levels.  Due to the fact that there were multiple failed breakouts at 610 $ it made sense to us that the bears would try to take it lower prior to any further upside movement, hence why we rightly took off the VST ProTrade yesterday near the highs and why we are hesitant to re-buy at current levels. Now that we have some fresh powder to deploy when the time comes, we can remain patient for price to come down into the areas that we feel are more attractive from a risk/reward perspective.

Having looked at the longer term charts earlier in the week and the short term chart yesterday, today we want to focus on the medium term via the 12-hour chart below.  We can see that price is still inside of the symmetrical triangle, and as expected is now coming down off of the upper trendline.  Speaking of that descending trendline, notice that SCMR dynamic resistance is now painting overhead around 610 $, right where the final breakout failure occurred. SCMR is printing red candles now as well, not a great sign, although price is already in the pivot area so some near term support is now emerging. Additionally, the EMA's are now bearish, as is the 200 SMA, and volume profile could use some action in the 580 - 600 $ area (mainly at the lower end of this range).

On the other hand, the momentum oscillators are telling a slightly different tale considering Willy is getting awfully close to officially oversold, RSI is still choppy but is trying to base, and MACD is once again painting a bullish divergence.  Additionally, PPO is now neutral which tells us that this is not a very emotional market, and the A/D line is rolling over but remains at relatively elevated levels.  Given we have a short term OTE long zone right around volume profile PoC between 570 - 575 $, we think this is a more attractive area for a long trade than current levels are.  Such a move would further recharge the indicators, would test SCMR dynamic support, and would allow price to stay within the triangle consolidation thus keeping our forecast for an eventual upside resolution intact.

Having said that, if the market decides to selloff a bit more than expected, then the lower OTE long zone and top of the major demand area around 520 $ would likely be the next stop in our opinion, and we would be buyers of that move as well.  Finally, if the bulls are able to take back control then they still have a ton of resistance to get through before FOMO kicks in.  610 $, 630 $, and 650 $ should all prove to be quite a test, so we do not think a powerful move to the upside is in the cards for bitcoin just yet. We will remain patient and neutral for the time being.  Stillllll waiting...

GLGT!

https://www.bullbearanalytics.com/free-reports/bitcoin-price-report-for-september-21-2016

Trades from the past week:

1) ProTrade closed for profit overnight: 1.)  **Bitcoin ProTrade - Very Short Term [ENTERED @ 596.55 $; CLOSED @ 608.75 for +2.05%]**: We have closed our LONG off of the 596.55 $ level at 608.75 $ for +2.05% profit.

2) ProTrade: **DASH ProTrade [ENTERED @ 0.180; CLOSED @ 205 on 9/13/2016
for +13.89] - We closed our LONG position off of the 180 level at 205 for a 13.89% profit since our entry on 9/7/2016.
 
Market Commentary (BTC): 

Bitcoin simply refuses to budge from this near term 605 - 610 $ trading range which is making us rethink our current ProTrade position off of the 595 $ area.

Ideally we would have seen a move up above 610 $ already, at least to test the OTE short zone at slightly higher levels between 615 - 620 $, however the bulls just do not have enough juice to push through all of the sellers that are capping the market around current levels.  While we are not expecting a huge dump to the downside if price does indeed start moving lower, we do think a selloff down into our ST ProTrade buy zone is very possible over the next week or two.  For this reason, plus the technical ones explained below, we are taking off the VST PT long in order to preserve capital for more favorable levels.

Given that we have been focused on the medium to long term forecast over the past few days, today we want to revisit the 4-hour chart for a look at the shorter term technicals.  First off, we can see that price is still stuck between supply and demand areas, and is now sitting right on top of the volume profile PoC (a critical level).  Also notice that SCMR painted a bearish pivot candle yesterday for the first time in a few weeks although we are now back to neutral, and dynamic support and resistance both continue to elude the market during this time of stagnation. 

Moving on, we see ample evidence that a pullback is becoming more likely the longer we remain in this tight trading range.  Willy is very close to officially overbought despite stagnant price action, RSI continues to chop around in no man's land, the Stochastic is rolling over out of overbought conditions, and PPO is neutral but is almost giving us a sell signal already.  Additionally, price is now below the 100-period SMA while the near term EMA's continue to flatten out, and the A/D line has taken a slight hit to the downside for the first time since early last week. 

While we are not seeing anything in the way of immediate sell signals on the charts just yet we do think there is still some work to be done to the downside prior to the upside resolution, therefore we have closed our VST ProTrade long at 608.75 $.  Why?  There is a massive volume profile notch sitting right around where the OTE long zone is currently, and this is also a region where the pivot area and the 200 SMA will both provide additional support (confluence area).  Although it may seem like a substantial dump on this lower timeframe, a move back down into the 580 $ area would barely be noticeable on most of the charts we showed yesterday in the BBB Report.  This is why we feel comfortable waiting for the market to come to us rather than chasing the market higher or risking capital on a risky short with a mediocre risk/return profile.

http://bullbearanalytics.com/

Long Term Outlook (UP AS LONG AS 350 $ HOLDS): Fortunately for some and unfortunately for others, the market is back to its stable ways as indecision and distraction continue to weight on the market. A few weeks ago the distraction was Monero, this week it is a bug in the new Ethereum client that sent ETH hash rate and price down substantially overnight.

Regardless of what the cause, the technicals have been steadily signaling this type of sideways action for quite some time, and are now starting to resemble other consolidation periods fractally so at least we have a notion of where we are headed, generally speaking. Having said that, we want to make sure we are in tune with the market by taking a look at the long term timeframe today via the monthly chart below.

First of all, the rounded bottom at 150 $ and the bullish market structure since then should both be extremely encouraging for longer term bulls. Not only that, but it appears as though we have a working Cup & Handle with support at the uptrend line which is a bullish continuation pattern. Finally, SCMR is painting bright green candles in addition to strong dynamic support at 350 $ meaning that as long as we hold above there then the bulls will remain in control. On the other hand, Willy is getting awfully close to overbought, RSI is pulling back but remains bullish, and MACD is rolling over slightly for the time being.

Additionally, volume profile is still rather porous although we are back inside the value area, and the A/D line remains steady despite lackluster price action and low trading volumes over the past few months. All told, the chart is giving mixed signals for the shorter term outlook but remains bullish over the long term.

Patience and neutrality will continue to be our defenses for the time being, although we are still buyers of dips down into our ProTrade long zones.

https://www.bullbearanalytics.com/

Bitcoin Price Update for September 16, 2016 

Market Commentary (BTC): 

Bitcoin is still within a few pennies of what the price was when we issued our update yesterday, which is pretty incredible considering OKCoin futures settlement occurred overnight last night.  Despite some choppy volatility in those specific futures markets, the other major exchanges took everything in stride to remain within the tight 605 - 610 $ range.  While this may not seem like a big deal as a singular event it does add to the growing pile of evidence that this market is preparing for a move, a move to the upside in our opinion.  Both the technicals and fundamentals a aligning going into this fall which will be a recipe for some big moves over the coming months.

Today we take a look at the daily chart for a look at the medium term setup going into the weekend trade.  We can see that price remains in the symmetrical triangle, and is still flatlining just above the bottom of the pivot zone.  Also notice that we are stuck between the 9 and the 18 EMA's, the 200 SMA continues to trend higher, and price is currently still in a volume profile notch area that could use more exploration.  These mixed signals are showing indecision and a lack of conviction on either side of the market so we don't think we are ready for a breakout just yet, although we also don't think it is too far off considering momentum is recharging with little to no reaction in price.

Getting to said momentum, we can see on the oscillators that there is still some work to be done to the downside, however they are awfully close to testing support at their respective centerlines.  Willy and RSI are staying fairly flat in the upper half while MACD has already crossed over its zeroline, and PPO is showing some slightly overbought conditions although they are dwindling as we speak.  Additionally, SCMR is still painting neutral candles, new dynamic support and resistance are nowhere to be found, and the A/D line continues to press to the upside despite lackluster exchange volumes and price action over the course of this week.

For the time being the market doesn't seem to be giving us any immediate clues that a dump is imminent which is why we are holding strong in the VST ProTrade.  Despite tightening our official stoploss level just a tad, we still think there is a pretty good chance of a retest of the 620 - 630 $ area over the weekend prior to a failure move to the downside into our ST buy zone.  On that note, we also think there is a possibility that we see a move down into the MT PT zone between 480 - 500 $, but we are not counting on it at this point. 

Having said that, we think the odds are much more in favor of a spike tag of the 570 - 580 $ area that gets bought up quickly, rather than another grind lower into medium term support.  Price action should be interesting and revealing early next week which is why we will issuing a full BBB report on Monday.

GLGT & Have a great weekend!

Bitcoin Price Update for September 15, 2016 

Market Commentary (BTC): 

Once again we are left with little to talk about in terms of price action in the bitcoin markets given they continue to stagnate in a contracting range which now sits between 605 - 610 $.  While this may be frustrating for shorter term traders, we think it is setting the market up for a much more substantial move as we creep into autumn.  Also, despite a fairly broad range of spot prices on the major BTC exchanges, the majority of them are currently higher than the Stamp price (even BTC-e) which confirms our upside bias for the time being.  Throw in what are some approaching positive fundamentals in the form of SegWit via 0.13.1, Lightning Network developments, and RootStock for smart contracts, and we think the market is getting primed for a test of the upper 600's $ in the not too distant future.

Not only are the fundamentals turning slightly more positive over the next few months, but the technicals are also telling us that something is brewing under the surface.  We can see on the 12-hour chart below that while price remains in the large symmetrical triangle consolidation, the failure to breakout did not lead to a major selloff down to the lower ascending trendline.  Also notice that SCMR is still not painting red candles despite some minor price pressure and somewhat bearish near term market structure, and no new dynamic support is building while strong resistance still hangs overhead.

Moving on to momentum and volume we can see that Willy is finally coming back down while RSI holds the centerline, MACD is flatlining along with price, and PPO is back to neutral from slightly overbought. Additionally, the 9/18 EMA cross is now neutral as well, and the 200-period SMA remains in an uptrend but will continue to act as near term resistance due to positioning.  As far as volume goes, the A/D line is still steadily climbing to the upside, exchange volumes are falling again, and volume profile remains porous between 580 - 600 $, as well as below 565 $.  While we do not want to read too much into this considering what we see as an emerging bullish setup, it is important to note that a selloff down into our ST ProTrade buy zone is still a definite possibility. 

With that said, we still want to remain firm in our VST PT long off of the 596 $ level along with our breakeven stoploss in order to manage risk in this environment.  While we do not want to reload there before unloading our current position, we would be willing to add to the MT PT down in our ST buy zone, so we will be watching this closely as we head into the weekend.  Ideally, price would rally to test the 620 - 630 $ area again which would give us a chance to exit the VST trade, followed by a retracement down into the 570 - 600 $ range going into next week which could then reverse quickly and head up into the mid to high 600's $ (MT OTE short zone) in fairly short order.  This may be asking for a bit too much, however this is the roadmap we are traveling with right now so take it for what its worth.

GLGT!

Chart: https://twitter.com/BullBearAnalyst/status/776458850979418112

Bitcoin Price Update for September 14, 2016 

Market Commentary (BTC): 

Not too much to comment on regarding price action this morning seeing as though the market remains stuck in this 600 - 610 $ near term trading range.  Despite the fact that the charts look pretty good from a shorter term perspective, the longer term technicals are still exhibiting some extended conditions which could use further correcting.  Having said that, we continue to want to be buyers of dips down into our ProTrade zones considering all signs are still pointing to this being a bull market consolidation.

Moving on to said charts, today we take a look at the near term setup via the 4-hour below.  We can see that over the past month or so the market has been inclined to be bullish, even though we had a washout last late last weekend.  Notice that price was traversing along an old uptrend line that when broken sent price back down to sub-600 $ levels (albeit only for a brief period), although this was to be expected given momentum was overbought and divergent.  Also notice that SCMR is trying desperately to paint a confirmed upside reversal following last weekend's dump, but has yet to do so while candles continue to come in mixed and neutral.

As far as momentum and volume are concerned, we are still getting mixed signals from many different indicators which is a sign to us that the market is not ready to breakout or breakdown just yet.  We can see that Willy and RSI are in much healthier positions than they were in last week, however they still have some room to run to the downside.  Additionally, PPO remains bullish for the time being although the Stochastic is already almost officially overbought, and the 9/18 EMA cross looks to be bottoming while the 200 SMA remains in an uptrend following a reversal to the upside.  Finally, the A/D line somehow continues to press higher despite the recent choppy conditions and mixed trading volumes which tells us that players are still accumulating here, however there is still a huge volume profile PoC centered around the 590 $ level so we would not be surprised to see a revisit of these lower levels prior to a longer term resolution.

Overall we remain fairly bullish considering we are still in the VST ProTrade with a target up around 620 $, however we want to keep a tight leash on this trade in case price action turns against us leading up to OKC futures settlement late tomorrow night.  If a selloff materializes then we can get out with a small profit and try to reload down in the more favorable 575 $ area, but if not we are ready to hold the VST PT as long as the market has its upside bias.  Longer term we remain outright bullish which means we will continue to be strong holders of our MT position off of 480 $.

GLGT!

https://www.bullbearanalytics.com/free-reports/bitcoin-price-report-for-september-14-2016

Bitcoin Price Update for September 13, 2016 

Market Commentary (BTC): 

The bitcoin bulls continue to defend the 600 $ level, a good sign considering this is an overbought market, although the lack of a continuation up into what has been stronger resistance in the 620 - 630 $ is mildly disappointing up to this point.  Having said that, it does not appear to us as though either side really has an advantage in this environment, fundamentally or technically, which is why we think we could continue to chop around within the symmetrical triangle consolidation for the remainder of the week (at least).  This would allow the oscillators to recharge and would likely lead to more pronounced squeeze conditions, both of which would be supportive of a move higher in the not too distant future.

Today we revisit the daily chart for a look at the entirety of the current triangle formation.  We can see that despite the rally up to 630 $ last week, the bulls were still unable to break above the descending trendline and now we are pulling back to the middle of the pattern once again.  Also notice that price is still in a pivot area which is keeping things elevated, and SCMR is painting neutral candles with dynamic support building at 570 and 594 $.  Additionally, the 9/18 EMA cross is still bullish but is losing steam, the 200-day SMA remains in an uptrend, and we are currently in a volume profile notch area that could use some more attention.

Moving on, we can see that momentum remains a concern considering Willy is still overbought, RSI has rolled over, MACD is testing the zeroline again, and PPO is flashing minor sell signals.  On the other hand, note that the A/D line is still climbing higher throughout this period of consolidation which confirms our thesis that this is still just a large shakeout within a broader bull market. For the time being we remain long in the VST ProTrade, although we are raising our stoploss to above breakeven, with a target back up near the upper triangle trendline which now sits between 620 - 625 $. 

Generally speaking we are bullish going into the Fall, however we think there is a good possibility of another dip or two lower prior to an upside resolution out of this triangle.  We hope to take the VST PT off soon on a bounce so that we can deploy fresh capital if/when price comes back down into our still active buy zones.  Remember, given we are already long off of 480 $ in the MT ProTrade, we are simply trying to add some alpha to this play which is why smaller position size and a quicker trigger finger are probably the right way to approach the shorter term setups.

GLGT!

https://www.bullbearanalytics.com/

Bitcoin Price Update for September 12, 2016 

Market Commentary (BTC): 

As expected, the market indeed took a leg lower over the weekend following what was a feeble attempt to break sustainably above the 630 $ resistance level on volume.  Clearly the market is trading primarily according to technicals considering this latest failure at a key confluence area, not to mention the fact that the dump yesterday was catalyzed by price action and not fundamentals or news.  In light of this, we want to make sure we take advantage of the opportunities presented by a market that is in tune with the charts, which is why we have entered the VST ProTrade and are waiting with fresh capital in case price makes one final leg lower into our 570 - 580 $ buy zone.

Moving on to the currently all important technicals we can see on the 12-hour chart below that the symmetrical triangle remains firmly intact, particularly now that we have another touch point on the descending trendline.  Also notice that the breakout failure materialized right around the 200-period SMA, as well as at strong historical SCMR dynamic resistance, both of which will continue to be trouble spots for bulls on the way out of this larger consolidation range.  Having said that, we do have multiple areas of relatively new SCMR dynamic support just below the market and it is still painting green candles despite the weekend breakdown below 600 $.

As far as momentum and volume are concerned, Willy is now coming down slightly out of officially overbought territory, RSI is testing its centerline, MACD has rolled over below zero, and the 9/18 EMA cross is close to turning bearish once again.  Conversely, volume remains fairly healthy considering that the A/D line is still steadily climbing to the upside, trading volumes are picking up, and price is in a wide volume profile notch that has been needing some attention for quite some time.  A basic recharge of momentum along with volume signs that buyers remain at these levels are likely all the bulls need to give the 620 - 630 $ area another go in our opinion, hence the VST ProTrade.

Overall we remain medium to long term bullish on this market which is why we want to continue to buy the dips, however we also think that downside technical pressure will have a significant influence on near term price action.  A move down to test SCMR dynamic support, volume profile PoC, the ascending triangle trendline, and short term OTE long zone all in our 570 - 580 $ buy area seems reasonable. Having said that, we are still staying long off of the sub-600 $ levels we saw yesterday in case the bulls decide they've had enough suppression.  Optimally we can take this VST PT off on a relatively small bounce from here in order to prepare to back up the truck on a move down into the sweet spot around 575 $.

GLGT!

https://www.bullbearanalytics.com/free-reports/bitcoin-price-report-for-september-12-2016

Bitcoin Price Update for September 9, 2016 

Market Commentary (BTC): 

The bitcoin price rally that we have seen over the past week has stalled in the 620 - 630 $ resistance area, although it is holding up much better than we initially expected.  While we are not ready to take the possibility of a deeper pullback off of the table, we do think that odds are increasing that we simply get a continuation following a short but necessary consolidation in this region.  That being said, we still favor a somewhat more substantial dip down into the 600 $ area which we would be buyers of due to a confluence of technicals around there.  Overall the market continues to look bullish, we just need a recharge to refill the tank for the next move.

We revisit the 6-hour chart today due to the fact that there are some interesting things materializing right now.  First of all, notice that price has finally broken above the symmetrical triangle downtrend line, and ever since has been following it to the downside as a test.  As long as the bulls can hold this line then the chances of a continuation higher increase significantly, however a break of it would likely lead to the pullback we have been waiting for.  Additionally, total volume and market structure looks fairly bearish at these levels despite SCMR continuing to paint bright green bullish candles.  Speaking of SCMR, new dynamic support continues to build below the market in our 590 - 600 $ buy zone, as well as down in the 570 $ area.  Both of these support zones are relatively strong compared to the old dynamic resistance at 630 $ so at some point we do expect it to break to the upside.

Moving on we can see that Willy remains in officially overbought territory, RSI is pulling back but has some room to run before testing the centerline, MACD is painting a nasty bearish divergence, and PPO is painting strong sell signals.  Conversely, the A/D line continues to press higher indicating that buyers are still adamant at these levels, and volume profile actually looks pretty healthy compared to what we were looking at last week.  Finally, the 200 SMA is still bottoming out but should provide support in the 600 $ area, while the EMA's remain bullish despite the recent pause. 

All in all, we have a rather mixed picture technically speaking going into this weekend.  There is a chance that the bulls hold the 615 $ level, where the triangle trendline is sitting, which would likely catalyze another leg to the upside late in the weekend going into next week (perhaps up to the 650 $ area).  Otherwise, we are expecting a small breakdown over the next few days which would lead price into our ProTrade buy zones that we have eyeing in order to add to our MT trade.  Either way, we feel ready to go with the flow of the market this weekend regardless of what materializes given our very favorable positioning from the early August dump below 500 $.

GLGT & have a great weekend!

https://www.bullbearanalytics.com/

Bitcoin Price Update for September 8, 2016 

Market Commentary (BTC): 

Another leg of the rally has taken price into the 620 - 630 $ resistance range at the top of the current symmetrical triangle formation.  This indeed confirms our upside bias but also reinforces the idea that the market needs at least a quick breather before making moves up into the mid to high 600's $.  The bulls have been fairly strong so far, which means we are not looking for a big move to the downside in the immediate future, but we still think that a test of the 580 - 600 $ region would be healthy and regenerative for a market that is currently stretched from a technical perspective.

Moving on to said technicals, we can see on the 12-hour chart below that price is now butting up against some serious resistance in the form of the descending triangle trendline, the 200- period SMA, heavy SCMR dynamic resistance, and a large volume profile notch.  Also notice that momentum is now highly overbought on this timeframe as well (in addition to the 6-hour chart we showed yesterday) with Willy and RSI officially there, while MACD struggles to find any juice above the zeroline.  All of these indication are concerning from a nearer term perspective, however it's not all bad news for the bulls over a slightly longer timeframe.

First of all, the A/D line remains in a slow and steady uptrend, a sign that some serious accumulation is and has been going on for quite some time below 700 $.  Additionally, SCMR is painting bright green candles meaning price action still favors the bulls, and pattern-wise it looks even more likely that the Elliot Wave ABC correction has played out which would mean that the lows are in for this mini-consolidation cycle.  Finally, volume seems to be confirming upside bias as well considering yesterday we saw an encouraging small volume breakout on total exchange volume.  This tells us that global interest in the bitcoin market is reemerging following what has been a historically slow summer for price action.

It should be clear that we remain medium to long term bullish on bitcoin with the expectation of a breakout to the upside above 700 $ by the end of this year at the latest.  Despite the need for a pullback over the near term in order to recharge the oscillators and put in a cleaner double bottom, we would be unequivocal buyers of that dip in order to pad our MT ProTrade position off of the 480 $ level which we are still holding.  We think this is the beginning of another exciting period for the still dominant cryptocurrency, although a bit more patience is required before getting too bulled up just yet.

GLGT!

https://www.bullbearanalytics.com/free-reports/bitcoin-price-report-for-september-8-2016

Bitcoin Price Update for September 7, 2016 

Market Commentary (BTC): 

The bulls have so far been able to successfully defend the 600 $ level, rather surprisingly, although price is now in an area in which it will be tough to continue higher without some sort of a recharge of the technicals.  We are starting to think that what has been a nice little 5% rally off of the 565 $ double bottom is just the beginning of a much larger move to the upside, perhaps to test the top of the current trading range between 450 - 700 $, however we also think that the indicators need a near term pullback in order to sync up with the higher timeframe charts.

Speaking of charts, let's take a look at the 6-hour for an overview of the shorter term setup.  We can see that SCMR is still painting bright green bullish candles and is building strong dynamic support between 565 - 570 $, also where volume profile PoC sits, as well as around the 590 $ level (which is new).  We also have upside stacking in the EMA's in addition to a break and hold of a flattening 200-period SMA which now sits around the top of the pivot area at 600 $.  Lastly on the bullish side of things, the A/D line is confirming the move to the upside and exchange volumes are finally picking up, both of which tell us to continue buying dips.

On the other hand, we are currently running up against heavy resistance which makes a pullback around current levels more probable.  Notice that price is well within the OTE short zone, well outside of the volume profile value area, and is getting awfully close to the triangle downtrend line which now resides around 620 $.  Additionally, Willy is now officially overbought, RSI is as well and is painting a bearish divergence, MACD is rolling over back to the zeroline, and PPO is heavily overbought too. 

Considering the near term technicals in the context of the longer term bull market we think we are getting closer to the upside resolution we have been calling for for months.  That said we also think that a pullback is due in order to recharge the technicals, washout late longs, and give investors another chance to pick up coins sub-600 $.  We would be small buyers in in the 590 - 600 $ range, and would come in with more size in the 575 - 580 $ area.

GLGT!

https://www.bullbearanalytics.com/

Bitcoin Price Update for September 6, 2016 

Market Commentary (BTC): 

And, we're back!  After some long overdue and much needed time off, we return with renewed invigoration and conviction regarding our recent forecasts.  Despite a continuation of the absence of fundamental catalysts, the technicals proved to be enough to spark a breakout from the previous 565 - 585 $ trading range as expected.  Now with price sitting just above 600 $ but just below the still intact symmetrical triangle, we stand at a critical juncture with regard to where we might be headed over the course of the next few weeks.  So, without further ado, let's take a look at the daily chart below for a classic medium term view of the current state of the market.

We can see that indeed price is now near the upper bound of the triangle consolidation that the market has been stuck in for almost three months, which means that multiple resistance areas exist right overhead in the form of the pivot area and the downtrend line.  Also notice that SCMR is still painting some dynamic resistance around the key 630 $ level, although we finally have new support at 565 $ along with green candles and a myriad of reversal signals.  Additionally, we have some decent market structure to work with following a small Adam & Eve double bottom in the 560's $, and we continue to watch a still intact Elliot Wave ABC correction.

Moving on to momentum and volume we can see that Willy and RSI are now firmly in uptrends despite rapidly approaching overbought territory, MACD is picking up some steam above the zeroline, and PPO is now neutral but trending higher.  Not only that, but the near term EMA's have crossed over bullishly and the 200-day SMA has held as support while continuing to press higher, signaling we are still in a bull market.  Finally, volume is not as bullish as the other indications considering that there remain multiple large volume profile notches both above and below that market that could use some work, not to mention exchange volumes remain anemic, however the A/D line continues to indicate that buyers are still outpacing sellers even at these levels.

From a longer term perspective bitcoin remains in a wide consolidation range between 450 - 700 $ as players continue to position for the next substantial move.  While our call for a rally up to resistance going into this week was the right one, we also realize that there could be some minor downside from here if we stick to our roadmap from last week.  One final downside washout back to support at the bottom of the triangle between 550 - 570 $ would allow us to jump back in once again for what we think will be at least a test of 630 $.  This would also recharge the momentum oscillators which would greatly increase the chances of moving above 630 $ once we are able to get there.  At this point, there just might not be enough left in the bulls' tanks to push through such heavy resistance on the first try.

To sum up, we are staying generally bullish but near term cautious.  Dips can continue to be bought, and now that we have confirmation of upside bias we can put a little more juice in these trades than we have been for the past several weeks.  Things should be getting exciting again soon in Bitcoinland (at long last!).


GLGT!

https://www.bullbearanalytics.com/

Bitcoin Price Update for September 2, 2016 

Market Commentary (BTC): 

As we have been forecasting all week, bitcoin has indeed remained trapped in the 565 - 585 $ consolidation zone (and within that primarily in the 570 - 580 $ area).  Yesterday we saw a small test of the lower end of that range, and today we are making moves back into the mid to high 570's $.  While we cannot rule out a spike in volatility over the next few days, we think most of the action will materialize later in the long weekend (Sunday going into Monday).  Despite the fact that the technicals still are not all that clear on directionality seeing as though this flat market has transitioned into indecision, we still see no reason to change our generally bullish bias going into Autumn.

Speaking of flat technicals, let's take a look at the 6-hour chart once again for an idea of where we may be heading over the next 24 - 48 hours.  We can see that price remains in the symmetrical triangle however it is slowly creeping down to the lower trendline over time.  Also, SCMR is painting yet another upside reversal candle, but is once again price having difficulty following through on any pick up in volumes.  Also note that price is still pinned to the large volume profile PoC while the A/D line continues higher, and it appears as though the bulls are trying to put in a rather elongated double bottom around 565 $.

Moving on to momentum we can see that Willy and RSI are gaining some strength following bullish divergences over the past week, MACD is still flatlined around the zeroline, and PPO remains neutral. Finally, the 9/18 EMA cross is almost complete flat as well, and the 200-period SMA continues to press lower, now sitting in the heart of the near term OTE short zone.  Considering what is still a rather convoluted technical picture over the short to medium term, we remain hesitant to move back into the market in size on the long side prior to a clearer signal on a break of the current trading ranges.  Until then, we will remain cautiously long in our VST ProTrade and comfortably long in our MT ProTrade.

Optimally we would like to see the market move up to our VST exit target over the next few days prior to a washout back to the downside which would allow us to add to our longer term trade.  Despite this apparent bullishness on our part, we realize that the current extended consolidation off of the 780 $ highs could have alot more room to run until the market starts to trend again.  Ultimately we are still in a large 465 - 700 $ range, which allows for trade flexibility although keep in mind that trading large ranges is often harder than it looks or seems. 

Finally, we will be out of pocket for the next few days due to the Labor Day holiday in the US, however we will issue email and Slack alerts if warranted by extreme price action. Also, AKWAnalytics should be available on Slack during the morning hours over the weekend, but if not please leave a DM and he will get back to you asap.  Thanks and have a great one!

https://www.bullbearanalytics.com/

Bitcoin Price Update for September 1, 2016 

Market Commentary (BTC): 

As we start to wrap up one of the slowest weeks in bitcoin's history in terms of price action, we continue to sit patiently in our long positions.  Despite the possibility of a breakdown out of the medium term triangle consolidation, we still like the risk/reward profiles present in our VST and MT ProTrades. Having said that, we are currently not expecting any substantial increase in volatility over the next few days but we do think it will pick back up as we head into the latter half of the long holiday weekend.  As has been the case for months, our bias remains to the upside, however we fully acknowledge the possibility that a dump down to the 500 $ area is possible prior to another test of the upside, which is why we are keeping tight stops on the shorter term trades.

Moving on to the technical details, we can see on the daily chart below that indeed the symmetrical triangle remains in full effect and price remains right in the middle of the formation.  Also notice that price continues to hug the volume profile PoC despite large notches on either side it, and the SCMR upside reversal candle painted a few days ago remains intact as well (although it has been flirting with a cancellation so we are not out of the woods just yet).  Speaking of SCMR, note that neutral bars are still coming in and we still do not have even minor dynamic support other than at the 525 $ level going back to June, so conviction is low on both sides of the ball.

As far as momentum and volume, it should come as no surprise that Willy and RSI are still chopping around in no man's land while MACD and the EMA's continue to flatten out.  Additionally, PPO is still showing weak buy signals while the A/D line continues to move slowly to the upside on low exchange volumes, telling us that there is at least some weak demand still at these levels.  Finally, the 200-day SMA remains in an uptrend thus confirming the longer term bull market and its lengthy consolidation, however multiple support and resistance areas both below and above the market will likely keep price range bound for the time being.

Generally speaking we continue to think there is a chance of a breakout from the triangle over the weekend and going into early next week, although we would be surprised to see things go beyond the OTE zones noted on the chart even if that materializes.  Until then, however, the 540 $ support level and the 630 $ resistance level remain the ones to watch for potential breakouts.  Until one of those key areas is tested the market will remain stagnant and, frankly, downright boring.

GLGT!

https://www.bullbearanalytics.com/