Bitcoin Price Update for August 31, 2016 

Market Commentary (BTC): 

Although things were looking pretty good yesterday for near term bulls, the market once again turned south following a tag of the 580 $ resistance area.  Now price is sitting back down in the 570 - 575 $ area where it has felt so comfortable for over a month.  We are not expecting any action in the market until later in the weekend going into early next week, therefore we remain neutral on a market that is stagnant and indecisive at current levels.  We will continue to remain patient overall given a still mixed bag of technicals and some waiting time until the next fundamental catalyst (Bitcoin Core 0.13.1), however we are willing to hold our small VST ProTrade long for the time being.

Today we revisit the 6-hour chart for a look at the short to medium term prospects.  We can see that price remains flat within the pivot area, and also continue to hug volume profile PoC, while market structure vacillates between bullish and bearish.  Also note that trading volumes remain anemic and volume profile looks relatively thin on either side of the current trading range, however the A/D line is still slowly pressing to the upside so it appears as though there are still buyers around current levels. Additionally, SCMR continue to paint mixed signals as we had a potential upside reversal that was cancelled a few bars later, but now we have a re-confirmation of the reversal although there has been no follow-through in price action yet.

Moving on to momentum we can see that the near term EMA's are almost completely flat, the 200-period SMA is still bearish, and PPO is close to signaling slightly overbought conditions despite practically no movement to the upside so far this week.  Finally, we can see that Willy and RSI both failed to push sustainably above their respective centerlines, while MACD continues to dance around it's zeroline as well.  None of these indications are all that encouraging, at least not from a near term perspective, so for now we are expecting more of the same until we get closer to the holiday weekend. 

Considering how tight the market is coiling right now, and has been for some time, we think that when a break of the symmetrical triangle/consolidation range materializes it will send some shockwaves of volatility through the market.  The key levels to watch are now 540 $ on the downside and 630 $ on the upside, so keep an eye out for a break of one of these levels over the next few weeks.  A break lower would likely take us down into the MT ProTrade add zone just below 500 $, while a breakout higher would likely send prices up to more significant resistance in the form of the OTE short zone around 700 $.  For the time being, however, we continue to sit on the sidelines in order to wait for more favorable setups.

GLGT!

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Market Commentary (BTC):  

Despite still being trapped within the 565 - 585 $ area, price is slowly moving up to the top of that range as expected.  While follow through on this move has been anemic, we think price action will pick up if the 580 $ resistance level can be broken on decent volume.  We say this due to some emerging technical signals on the medium term chart, as well as the fact that Bitcoin Core 0.13.1 (which will contain SegWit code) is now over 30% complete.  Even though we are still in the final days of the summer doldrums, we think this combination of positive technicals and fundamentals could give the market some juice to the upside.  To find out where we might be heading, lets turn to the 12-hour chart below.

We can see that price remains firmly within the symmetrical triangle, as well as the pivot area, and is sitting right on top of the volume profile PoC.  Also note that SCMR painted a confirmed upside reversal yesterday, the first since June, and despite no new dynamic support yet we can see dynamic resistance slowly weakening over time.  Additionally, market structure is starting to come in slightly more bullish and the Vix is indicating that an increase in volatility is likely nearing, therefore we think a move up into the volume profile notch around 600 $ is a possibility over the next week or so.

Having said that, we still have mixed signals coming from momentum and volume which is why we are not ready to call a breakout rally imminent just yet.  Notice that Willy is heading back to the downside despite the possible reversal in price, RSI has not been able to break above the 50-line, and the 9/18 EMA cross remains flat for the time being.  We can also see that MACD has finally jumped over the zeroline although without much fanfare, while the A/D line continues to slowly press to the upside. While we think a move higher is more likely than not, we don't think it will be very large in magnitude considering the mixed oscillators as well as the heavy resistance overhead in the form of SCMR, OTE, volume profile, and the 200-period SMA.  Getting through 630 $ will still be a very tall task for the bulls, but 600 $ is a more realistic possibility.

Overall we continue to slowly move into the bullish camp given we now have a short term risk/reward profile that we can live with, which is why the new VST ProTrade was issued.  Despite this tempered positivity, unless price can breakout of the larger triangle that we remain in between 540 - 630 $ then the market will stay in this sideways consolidation, albeit with a bit more volatility, going into September.  We are still hopeful that we get another shot to add to longs down in our buy zones, but for now this small long scalp will have to do.

Thanks! AKWAnalytics and S3052

Bitcoin Price Update for August 29, 2016 

Market Commentary (BTC): 

Once again no surprises over the weekend as price remains locked in a tight consolidation, although we did get a small break from the 570 - 580 $ range when price dipped into the mid-560's over the weekend.  With a new range in effect from 565 - 585 $ and considering we are going into a long holiday weekend, we think the price action will remain subdued over the course of this week.  Having said that, there are some early technical indications emerging on the shorter term charts that are signaling a potential move to the upside to test resistance at the top of the range.

With that in mind, lets move to the 6-hour chart below for a look at the short to medium term outlook. First of all, notice that price is still within the symmetrical triangle, as well as the pivot area, as it has been for some time, and it now appears to be trapped between volume profile PoC and the near term EMA's.  Speaking of volume profile, it continues to look relatively healthy compared to the longer term charts so perhaps a move up into OTE is not out of the question over the next few weeks, but for now this looks unlikely over the very short term. 

Moving on, we can see that SCMR is painting neutral candles following a "confirmed reversal up" candle late in the weekend which has not yet been voided despite little progress to the upside.  Additionally, Willy has reversed back to the upside, RSI is back in neutral territory following a bullish divergence, and MACD and PPO are both showing signs of at least a local bottom around 565 $.  These are encouraging signs that could indicate a small upside bias this week, although we are still not buyers of coins at these levels.

Conversely, we have minor dynamic support sitting at the 554 $ low and resistance around 585 $, however major support is nowhere to be found while major resistance still hangs overhead at 600 $ and 630 $.  Also note that the 200-period SMA remains in a downtrend signaling the short term correction is still not over, while the EMA's flatline around current prices telling us there remains indecision in this market. 

While we are not expecting a significant move beyond the 565 - 585 $ range in either direction over the course of this week, we do think a move up to test that 580 - 585 $ area is a distinct possibility.  Perhaps when we get back to business next Tuesday following the Labor Day holiday in the US we can breakout of this range to test our 545 - 555 $ buy zone or the 600 - 630 $ resistance area.  Until then, we remains patient and neutral.

Remember, in a trendless and contracting market, which we are currently in, buying the dips and selling the rips remains the most relevant strategy for short term and more risk-seeking players.  That said, we remain on the sidelines at current levels considering we want to add to long positions at more favorable risk/reward levels.

GLGT!

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Bitcoin Price Update for August 26, 2016  

Market Commentary (BTC):  

As we head into the final weekend of August, the market remains stagnant around the 575 $ level. Despite a few pops up to resistance at 580 $ and a few dumps down to test the bottom of the range at 570 $, for the most part the market has been steadily trading sideways for pretty much the entire week. We think this period of extreme inactivity will give way to more volume and volatility within the next several weeks, which is likely not what traders want to hear, but the market just does not seem ready to resolve out of this area yet.  Until it is ready, price will remain trapped in a series of ranges, the most relevant of which now sits between 570 - 580 $.  

Before signing off for the weekend we want to take a look at the daily chart for a a view of what the market has done throughout the summer.  First of all, we can see that price is still right in the middle of a symmetrical triangle consolidation off of the June highs, and is also stuck between a large demand area and a pivot zone from the June lows.  Also note that SCMR is still painting neutral candles and dynamic resistance continues to build at 630 $, although the flattening EMA's and still bullish 200 SMA are signaling that this indeed remains an extended sideways consolidation within a bull market.

Moving on to momentum and volume, notice that Willy and RSI are still chopping around in no man's land while MACD tries to break the zeroline following a substantial bullish divergence on the recent low's below 500 $.  Additionally, PPO is still showing bottoming conditions, although not as strong as a week or two ago, and the A/D line remains in an uptrend despite a small roll over the past few days.  Finally, exchange volumes continue to wane and multiple volume profile notches still exist both above and below the market.  This is telling us that we may have more time within this consolidation while price discovery continues, with the short to medium term volume bias being to the downside considering the large gap between 480 - 550 $.

Generally speaking we remains neutral and patient while price flatlines around 575 $.  As was the case last weekend, we are not expecting a significant move above or below the current trading range, although spikes are possible, however we would continue to play the near term by buying the dips and selling the rips while we wait for the market to come back down into our buy zones.

Have a great weekend!  GLGT!

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Bitcoin Price Update for August 24, 2016 

Market Commentary (BTC): 

As the tight, sideways chop persists through the majority of this week due to mixed technicals and relatively boring fundamentals, we want to take a closer look at what the market is doing within the multiple consolidation patterns price is stuck in on multiple timeframes.  It has been tough to get a good gauge on the market following the Finex bottom and subsequent bounce, and it still is, however more encouraging signs continue to emerge as we press on in this still contracting 570 - 590 $ range.  With that in mind let's move on to the updated 4-hour chart below for a look at the short term technicals.

We can see that price was able to breakout of this specific symmetrical triangle, although price remained heavy and the apex was quickly tested.  Now the market is riding the triangle uptrend line despite neutral SCMR candles and new dynamic support around 570 $, however there remains significant resistance overhead in the form of the medium term OTE short zone and the minor supply area which has already rejected price at 585 $ a couple of times.  Throw in the fact that the 9/18 EMA cross has flatlined and the 200-period SMA remains bearish and falling around 600 $, and we still have a thoroughly confusing market on our hands for the time being.

Having said that, notice that Willy and RSI are recharging nicely down at the centerline despite a stagnation in price, as is the Stochastic, however the CM PPO is still showing slightly more overbought conditions than we would prefer.  Finally, volume profile looks healthy around current levels although work still needs to be done below the market while trendline and OTE support still sits between 500 - 530 $, but we still have a rising A/D line and low trading volumes so perhaps price remains elevated for now. 

Generally speaking we are still in the camp that a bullish resolution is coming in the next month or two. This is particularly true considering that it seems we are now in the middle of the traditional pre-bitcoin rally altcoin pump, which still gives the charts some time to align themselves prior to that upside move. Despite some early positive signals on the shorter term 4-hour timeframe, the longer term charts are still not there yet.  While we think a move up to test 600 $ and maybe even 630 $ over the next 5 days remains a possibility, we are not betting on it just yet as you can see by the ProTrade levels below.


GLGT!

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Market Commentary (BTC): 

Despite the fact that the bitcoin price was able to push up to the 590 $ near term OTE short zone resistance yesterday, a failure to break above there caused another overnight selloff back down to 580 $.  Now we are once again treading water around 585 $, as we did for most of the day yesterday, although we will say that a series of higher lows over the past five days still has us leaning slightly bullish for the time being.  While we are skeptical of a breakout above 600 $ in the next few days, we do think the bulls make a run for it by the end of the weekend.  Another failure there would likely mean we revisit the lower half of the 550 - 600 $ trading range, but as per the ProTrades below we would be buyers of that dip.

Today we want to return to our favorite medium term chart to see if we can glean any clues as to timing and directionality of the next move.  We can see below the SCMR is trying to paint green candles but there are some neutral ones scattered in there as well.  Also note that dynamic support is still building around 570 $, which is also where a volume profile mini-PoC sits, and is right in the middle of the current pivot zone.  Additionally, the 9/18 EMA cross is starting to turn back to the upside, the 200-period SMA is still rising but will be resistance on the way back up, and there is a large volume profile notch that needs some filling in just above 600 $. 

Moving on to momentum and volume, notice that Willy is above the centerline but is rapidly approaching overbought territory while price remains relatively flat, RSI is above the centerline as well but has stalled out, and MACD remains pinned near zero as the MA's continue to flatten.  Additionally, despite the fact that the A/D line is still generally trending slowly higher, we have seen a slight dip over the past day or two which indicates there could be some distribution happening in the upper half of the aforementioned 550 - 600 $ trading range.  Finally, exchange volumes remain unimpressive signaling a lack of conviction from either the bulls or the bears for the time being. 

Given a mixed technical picture and poor seasonality we think the market will continue to chop around between 570 - 590 $ through the middle part of this week.  That said, we think there is a decent shot at an upside test of 600 $ prior to a move back down to SCMR support at 570 $ early next week.  While the dog days of summer press on, we remain neutral and patient at current levels considering price action is anemic and risk/reward profiles are unattractive on both sides of the market.

GLGT!
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Long Term Outlook (UP AS LONG AS 315 $ HOLDS):

Following the Bitfinex fiasco a few weeks ago, the market has been in a period of stagnation in terms of both
fundamentals and technicals. More broadly speaking, the financial markets are still in the “dog days of summer”
(aka, summer doldrums) which are characterized by low volume and low volatility, and which are caused
primarily by wealthy vacationers stepping away from the markets. More specific to bitcoin, the halving has
been properly digested so far, Seg Wit and other code improvements are slowly rolling out, and price is around
where the market seems to think fair value currently is. While we are expecting a least a few more weeks of
sideways consolidation, we remain of the mind that an upside resoltion is coming as we move into Autumn.

When we began working up the charts earlier we were surprised by how resilient and supportive
the weekly chart below looks. SCMR is still not painting any red candles and dynamic support
continues to build just below 400 $. It also appears as though the market is forming a bullish pennant
pattern with the recent low coming in on a bullish volume divergence. Speaking of that 465 $
low, notice that it was right in the OTE long zone, right at the top of the demand area, right on the
uptrend line, and right on historical resistance turned support. This 450 - 465 $ area is strong.

Conversely, Willy remains relatively overbought, RSI looks heavy, MACD has dropped below the zeroline, and the
9/18 EMA cross contiues to flatten. Additionally, despite pressing to the upside in a firm uptrend, the 200-week SMA
is still all the way down near dynamic support at 360 $, which is also the bottom of the downtrend pennant channel.

While we cannot technically rule out a test of the high 300’s $ at some point, we think it remains very unlikey and we
would be strong buyers of that move. The more likely path over the next few months in our opinion is a continuation
of the sideways consolidation between 450 - 700 $ prior to an upside resolution going into the end of the year.

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Bitcoin Price Update for August 19, 2016 

Market Commentary (BTC): 

Incredibly, the bitcoin price simply refuses to move from this 570 - 580 $ range as both bulls and bears get immediately spurned on any minute move in either direction.  Going into what may be the slowest trading weekend of the year seasonally speaking, we are watchful but not optimistic about a breakout of this range.  The lack of fundamental catalysts combined with still mixed technicals means that we must remain neutral and patient going into next week, although we do think a move out of the larger 555 - 600 $ trading area is coming in the next week or two.  Until then, though, we remain on the sidelines.

Today we take another look at the 6-hour chart for the short term overview since we will be covering the medium and long term outlooks in the full report on Monday.  We can see that price has truly flatlined around 570 $ which is where volume profile PoC is sitting, as are both the 9 and the 18 EMA's.  Also note that SCMR is painting all neutral candles now as indecision remains prevalent, and we are lacking in dynamic support and resistance anywhere near current levels.  As long as price remains within the light blue pivot area, risk/reward will continue to be unfavorable for all but the most nimble range traders who can buy the dips and sell the rips within this near term 565 - 575 $ zone.

Getting to momentum and volume, notice that Willy is moving swiftly to the upside despite little progress in terms of price, RSI continues to struggle at the centerline, and MACD remains pinned near zero. Additionally, volume profile remains very porous both above and below current prices and trading volumes continue to be anemic, although a still rising A/D line indicates that perhaps there are more buyers at these levels than meets the eye. 

Finally, OTE long zone support down just below the medium term uptrend line around 500 $ continues to be our preferred reload zone, however we would still be interested in taking a shot on the long side in the 540 - 550 $ area as per our VST ProTrade.  Conversely, significant SCMR dynamic resistance still hangs overhead around 630 $ so that is where we would be taking profits on any long positions.

While it may seem as though this consolidation will never end, we know from experience that just when it looks the most hopeless is when the market starts to move.  We still prefer the idea that we head slightly lower out of this range first before eventually resolving to the upside, but at this point it is pretty much a waiting game until we get technical confirmation one way or the other.

Have a great weekend!  GLGT!

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Market Commentary (BTC):

Not much to say this morning given the markets are fully in the grip of the summer doldrums. This period of extreme stagnation prompted us to go back and take a look at what happened last summer around this time, and indeed the same conditions were present then prior to an upside resolution later in the Fall. While we cannot guarantee that this same outcome will materialize again this year, we think there is a fairly good chance that something similar does occur (at least in terms of a breakout in one direction or the other). Seeing as though we are still in a slow period as far as fundamentals go, we remain primarily focused on the technicals for the time being.

We return to the 12-hour chart for another look at the medium term setup. There is no doubt the the market is currently locked in a period of indecision and uncertainty seeing as though price has been trading within the light blue pivot zone all week (only a ~25 $ range), and remains firmly in the middle of the symmetrical triangle. Also notice that SCMR has been vacillating between red and blue candles, those being bearish and upside reversal signals respectively, while dynamic resistance overhead at 600 and 630 $ both slowly loosen their grip on the market.
Moving on, we still have a minor OTE short zone sitting between 580 - 600 $ while the OTE long zone remains down around the 500 $ level, which is also still the top of the major demand area. Not only that, but price remains stuck trading around this volume profile mini-PoC that lies between two large notches, although the A/D line continues to press slowly to the upside indicating buyers remain at these levels. As far as momentum goes we are getting mixed signals as well considering Willy has pulled back nicely, RSI looks like it has bottomed near term, and MACD is poking its head above the zeroline.

Despite the possibility of a quick washout back down into support in the low to mid-500's $, where we still want to be buyers, we think the market may turn more bullish than many are expecting over the next week or two. The small but effective Adam & Eve double bottom that appears to be materializing around the 560 $ level is making us slightly more bullish than we were earlier in the week even in the face of a very murky short term technical outlook. We would not be surprised to see the action pick up slightly over the weekend as we slowly move out of the dog days of summer, and we now have a slightly more bullish bias so take that for what its worth.

GLGT

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Market Commentary (BTC): 

The waiting game persists as the bitcoin markets continue to compress during this slow summer trading season.  Despite the possibility that we could remain locked in the 550 - 600 $ range for a few more weeks, this newer 570 - 580 $ range will likely break sometime this week or this weekend.  While the technicals are still not all that helpful in terms of directionality, from a market makers perspective the struggle to make profit in these tight conditions is very real.  In light of this near term uncertainty we want to stay neutral and patient at current levels, although we are still in a "buy the dips, sell the rips" mentality until further notice.

Today we zoom in on the 4-hour chart below given it has been awhile since we have taken a serious look at shorter term technicals.  The first thing to notice is that we have another working symmetrical triangle on this timeframe in addition to the longer term charts, which continues to squeeze price into the current 570 - 580 $ range (and is also where volume profile PoC is and hence where near term fair value is). 

Also note that there is a new minor pivot area from 555 - 570 $ which should provide some support on dips, and SCMR is once again painting neutral/mixed candles following a few days of bullish price action earlier this week.  Finally, the OTE short zone continues to sit right overhead between 585 - 620 $ while the major OTE long zone still lies between 500 - 520 $, not to mention that volume profile leaves much to be desired, all of which is telling us that even a break of the current trading range might not catalyze a very large move this time around.

Momentum and volume are also telling a confusing story considering Willy is heading higher but is hitting centerline resistance, RSI is heading down to test the 40 level, and MACD continues to stagnate around zero.  Additionally, the 9/18 EMA cross has flatlined at current prices and the 200-period SMA remains bearish, although conversely the A/D line is still healthy and trading volumes are slightly more bullish now than they were earlier in the week.  For the time being price will stay within the 570 - 580 $ range until we get a move above or below there.  Our thinking for the time being is that we could move down to test the lower triangle trendline around 560 $ before finding support once again and then attempting to move above 580 $.

All said, we remain buyers down in the 540 - 550 $ area for a shorter term scalp trade, as well as down in the 500 $ region for a longer term play.  Having said that, until there is some conviction on one side or the other, the bitcoin markets will remain stagnant in a large, extended consolidation between 450 - 700 $.  We still think an upside resolution materializes in the latter part of this year, however at this point we are relegated to sitting on the sidelines waiting for the market to come to us.

GLGT!

https://www.bullbearanalytics.com/free-reports/bitcoin-price-report-for-august-17-2016