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181  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: Black Arrow X-1 and X-3 (not modded by Black Arrow) Thread on: August 29, 2014, 02:16:41 PM
People say they are calling their lawyers, but nothing ever comes of it.  Apparently nobody wants to sink their teeth into Black Arrow for the bitcoins they haven't spent. 

It's basically a total loss for a lot of people who are still waiting and may never get anything.  A lot of vocal folks who say they are going to do something about it, but haven't.


It may look that way, but it is not the case.

The wheels turn slowly but they are turning.


People that want to see something done should also be doing something.  The more complaints that are filed the more seriously this will be taken by the people in Hong Kong and China.

Simply because there is not a lot of talking here doesn't mean there is nothing going on.  There is plenty moving around on this, however, working with government agencies and lawyers half a world away takes time.  They have their processes also and aren't going to step outside them for a handful of bitcoiners.

Everyone affected must file complaints, China doesn't fuck around, if they receive sufficient complaints to draw their attention, the provincial government has the authority to go after BA directly. Thr first step is everyone absolutely must let Hong Kong know that this company is doing fraud over the internet registered in their jurisdiction.
182  Economy / Scam Accusations / Re: Black Arrow 28nm 100Ghash Bitcoin ASIC from $0.49/GH/s on: August 29, 2014, 02:24:44 AM
I've seen consumer alerts on the Consumer Council's site for companies with 70 complaints.  I do not see Black Arrow listed.

is it possible that not even 70 people filed a complaint against Black arrow after all of their actions against customers and all of this time.

the council does take action, will visit the business if it does not respond,  and has legal actions at it's disposal, but they're not going to do much if people don't actually let them know there is a problem.

stop waiting for 'someone else'

they're fucking YOU.  do something about it.




Maybe we can buy their email list like others already?

Then we could notify everyone of the complaint procedure one-shot.
183  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 27, 2014, 04:18:48 PM
it's about the time to go back to $4xx now

Does it ever get tiring being a twat?
184  Economy / Speculation / Re: When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD? on: August 25, 2014, 06:11:22 PM
Can you list your assumptions?  For starters, are you assuming constant power production and constant power price?  Because neither of those will hold whatsoever on the timescales you're talking about.
It is not a perfect model by any means that is why I called it "rough 'back of the envelope' estimates" .  All values static and based on "today's" numbers:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=694401.0

The rising worldwide power production will "help" us use a lower percentage of the overall power production.
The rising cost of power will "help" us use less power.

The hidden assumption that everything except electricity is free causes this model to overestimate energy consumption by at least a factor of 3-4 if not more based on current costs. The fixed costs in mining are way too high to justify electricity consumption alone as the criteria for profitability. While it's true that an existing operation with money already sunk in capital expenditures is going to be closer to the assumption of this model as far as the cutoff point to stop operating specific equipment, the bitcoin price has to plausibly cover fixed costs for a new operation and not just electricity. In the realm of even just hobbyist basement type setups, it's almost inconceivable that mining equipment would ever even come close to energy cost - equipment cost parity over its entire marginally-profitable lifetime, until some point in the non-foreseeable future where improvements in equipment efficiency radically stagnate.
185  Economy / Scam Accusations / Re: Black Arrow 28nm 100Ghash Bitcoin ASIC from $0.49/GH/s on: August 25, 2014, 09:33:56 AM
Is this address from the website remotely legit?

5A03, Building 1, Huangduguangchang, Yitian Road, Futian District, Shenzhen, Guangdong, P. R. China, Postcode: 518048

Reason I'm asking is that I'm going to send out a batch of complaints shortly to every relevant jurisdiction, and it has come to my attention that Shenzhen has had some pretty strong consumer protection laws since early 2013, and if they receive a significant number of complaints, the city itself has the authority to bring suit against them in the interest of consumers. Shenzhen is not some third-world backwater with no consequences.

There might even be some delightful surprises, for example wouldn't it be a shocker if say we were to find out that this operation isn't even properly licensed?
186  Economy / Scam Accusations / Re: Black Arrow 28nm 100Ghash Bitcoin ASIC from $0.49/GH/s on: August 24, 2014, 11:00:10 PM
I'm saying screw it and filing with the consumer council and contacting attorneys, as it seems BA is simply ignoring the CC anyhow, so something will have to be done formally.

What's great though is that by ignoring complaints filed through the consumer council, BA is already doing the heavy lifting for us in proving malice.
187  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 24, 2014, 09:54:27 AM
Absolutely false on its face.

All trade is by definition positive sum, and a market is merely the aggregation of all trades. This arises because the preferences of individual participants are not monolithic.

The whole anti-TA strain I can understand is very compelling from a sense of misguided skepticism and not wanting to be made a fool, but all of these knee jerk non-criticisms transparently come out of a lack of understanding of what TA even is in the first place.

Imagine this scenario:

10 men are locked in a room. They are given different quantities of 2 assets each. They start exchanging those 2 assets among them, effectively creating a 'market' and determining a 'price' of asset A measured in asset B and viceversa.
This price is recorded day by day, and a graph drawn on the wall of the room.

Now, as times goes on, 9 of these 10 men start seeing things in the graph. They seems to fool themselves into thinking that somewhat future prices are determined by previous ones. They take rules and compasses and start identifying 'trends' and 'patterns' in the graph. They think: "price has gone up for the last 3 days, it is more probable that it will go up today, instead of going down". They completely forgot the base mechanics, as you recall correctly: trades and trades alone determine price.

The 10th man, more wise, don't believe this mumbo jumbo. He understand the mechanics. He also know, now, that another mechanic has been added to the game: beliefs.

So at the start of the day he buy a bit of B, fooling the others into thinking: "see? what did i told you? trend is up". And they buy, and buy...
It is at that point that our trading hero sell.

So, while these 9 men think they are smart because they can see 2 moving averages cross, the other one fool them. A lot.

After a year the room is unlocked. Every pieces of A and B are in the pockets of our hero. The others pockets are empty.

Here endeth the lesson.

That's not a lesson, that's reinventing the wheel from scratch on the basis of no direct knowledge of the subject, to create some perverse "lifeboat ethics" thought experiment deceptively designed to vaguely produce the outcome that you want.

The real way to learn about this subject is to learn about this subject, and then produce critiques later from a position of knowledge instead of a position of sophomoric generality.

Here's a lesson for you: the way that you define what a market is at the beginning is a cargo-cult definition that does not subsume the primary conceptual features of what a market really is, but just shows the consequent trappings of how a market looks. And at the very beginning of the second paragraph you just go ahead and assume what you're trying to prove, which again, is a problem that won't go away here.
188  Economy / Speculation / Re: It isn't possible for Bitcoin to go to $0 on: August 24, 2014, 07:04:42 AM
Not only is it possible for Bitcoin to go to $0, it is inevitable. Do you think bitcoin will exist in a trillion years time?

That would depend on conflating the conditions of no one remaining in existence to perform a valuation and valuation actually be performed at $0. Like the difference between {} and 0.
189  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 24, 2014, 04:32:34 AM


Absolutely false on its face.

All trade is by definition positive sum, and a market is merely the aggregation of all trades. This arises because the preferences of individual participants are not monolithic.

The whole anti-TA strain I can understand is very compelling from a sense of misguided skepticism and not wanting to be made a fool, but all of these knee jerk non-criticisms transparently come out of a lack of understanding of what TA even is in the first place.
190  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 22, 2014, 08:35:44 AM
China central bank has a new ban coming soon, under the name of "anti money laundering" because ALL chinese exchangers are using "illegal coupons through 3rd party" to deposit/withdraw, they can't do it legally because ALL chinese banks REFUSED to work with them months ago, it's like central bank saying to exchangers: "You have been warned not engage in any bitcoin business since long time ago but you carried on regardless, so don't blame me if i kick your ass hard time by time"

This is pure fantasy designed to appeal to complete lack of understanding of the Chinese AML regime and the purview of PBOC as opposed to MIIT.
191  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 21, 2014, 03:48:18 PM


That man was a disaster! Western civilizations downfall is partly this mans fault.

The more I think about it, the more I cannot find a single modern nightmare problem that Richard Nixon did not have a gigantic hand in. Although I do agree, Churchhill is a huge racist imperialist dick.
192  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 21, 2014, 09:17:09 AM
Can we touch US$585 today?

For the 3-day SAR?
193  Economy / Scam Accusations / Re: Black Arrow 28nm 100Ghash Bitcoin ASIC from $0.49/GH/s on: August 20, 2014, 05:16:30 AM
Is it possible this is just another Zifkin operation? I mean for all we know this Sovu guy is just a fugitive with his name on a holding company obviously designed for criminal purposes. We have evidence that someone did some press last fall to promote this scheme under the criminal alias "Alex Berk", which frankly is such a ridiculous load of Where in the World is Carmen Sandiego bullshit it's almost comedy. All we're actually hearing from are three fake and/or anonymous entities that we know nothing about. They're EXACTLY following the Zifkin plan leaked by PG to a T.

The only question that's really up in the air at this point is whether Matt Carson and this "Stuart" guy from the UK are in on the con game, or whether they're just useful idiots getting played. The take on this scam is probably good enough that it's worth running their reputations to the ground, not that Matt Carson wasn't already a known scammer to begin with.
194  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin bubble to occur late August/early September on: August 19, 2014, 07:31:25 PM
Prices are soon to fall again and already said time and time again over different section here too that price will eventually fall into the mid $400s before even climbing back up to high 700-800 area... Should see a few more drops in the 500s to 470s areas and possible to 300 mark depending on the last part of this month and 2nd quarter of next month.

Looks like my prediction from my quoted post is about right and people never listen to me. I did warn for this that it was going to happen back in mid July. I know where it is currently going to go to and its not looking good. Eventually mid SEP towards Nov is when it will begin to recover. Enjoy the low prices.

November is when the last bubble started. If we don't see a bubblish scenario, people might leave the market looking for easy money somewhere else, so there is a chance that things won't be better at November

Could be that people are leaving the market for now. Not sure where else 'easy' money is.
In an efficient market there is no "easy" money as there is enough information to know what will likely impact prices in the near and medium term future. In order for anyone to make any serious ROI they will need to invest a lot of time in doing research and monitoring various markets for potential opportunities.

There is literally nothing about this statement that makes sense other than briefly defining an efficient market.

First off, this is nowhere close to remotely being an efficient market. Secondly, assuming an efficient market, the second statement about making "serious ROI" by "invest[ing] a lot of time doing research" is EXACTLY the contraction of the efficient market claim in the preceding sentence!
195  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 19, 2014, 06:03:40 AM
you have no credibility unless you tell us who you "used to be"  which I notice you declined to do...nor the names of the people flocking to you for advice... everything that comes out of your mouth and that of your sockpuppets is total crapola.

if you absorb views from an evil dummy you have only youself to blame, i think.  just ignore and save us all some grief.  would you listen to 'freddy kruger'?  

For a moment I thought you had written "freddy krugman" and that actually sounded scarier to me.
196  Economy / Scam Accusations / Re: Black Arrow 28nm 100Ghash Bitcoin ASIC from $0.49/GH/s on: August 18, 2014, 07:57:41 AM
I'm going to lay out very clearly and logically why this entire thing stinks and is a scam from top to bottom, even though there is at least some evidence that there is some effort to actually deliver a product here. To any of the schadenfreude "preorderlol you're dumb" crowd, that's nice you're more than welcome to feel good about yourselves.

A pre-order does not mean that Black Arrow has zero responsibility for delivering and gets to do whatever they want as they please whenever they want.

The agreement Black Arrow entered into with us was predicated on a set of representations of the project made by Black Arrow at the start, specifically that there is a design that BA is producing that meets certain specifications and requirements, and that the organization has the ability and intention to produce the ordered end products and services within roughly the agreed upon timeframe. Of course it's reasonable then in this framework for the delivery date to be an estimate, because of course there are going to be some unforseen issues in producing the end product.

Now once Black Arrow in the eleventh hour announced the original delay, we were no longer under the same agreement that we originally consented to, because in failing to produce a design that met the agreed upon specifications, we were no longer customers of the original project. It is at that point that BA is obligated to contact their customers to determine if they still want to be involved in the new terms of what they are producing, and offer either some kind of discount or enhancement of product, or a full refund if the customer no longer wanted to be part of this modified project that they did not agree to in the first place.

By failing to conduct themselves in a way that honors the way that they represented the original agreement, Black Arrow committed fraud by going ahead and using customer funds to produce a later and different fab than what was originally agreed. BA has an obligation to sort out this situation prior to going ahead and producing the fab. Just because a customer pays a company for a product or service, does not suddenly mean that the company is entitled to go ahead and force the customer into something that the customer never agreed to.

Now that we are faced with an even greater delay since BA received the finished fab than the original delay in the first place, we have to recognize that BA misrepresented their capability and willingness to actually honor delivering a finished retail product. Literally every single thing that BA said in order to solicit orders, which is well-documented even within this very thread, has proven to be a false misrepresentation of the facts of their conduct and performance.

This entire history of changing the agreement unilaterally without the consent of their customers means that the original agreement is long gone, and BA's unwillingness to recognize that reality means that as customers our only recourse is to bring this situation to legal channels where BA will finally be forced to liquidate their fraudulently-acquired assets and compensate customers for what they've cavalierly done without consent. As long as BA continues to maintain their perverse interpretation of the terms of the original agreement, i.e. that estimated delivery date means that they get to do whatever they please whenever they please, then there is not going to be any recourse in attempting to deal with BA (as though one could even actually contact them ever about it anyway!).
197  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 17, 2014, 04:03:54 AM
I'm not expecting another major wave of buying until tomorrow or even later..

It would be nice to see the price settle and gain support here

what happen next when price stabilize on low volume? if you don't know then you must be new here!

Stabilization at no volume is the same as no noise when it is night and there is no one to make noise because everyone is sleeping

If the price falls in a forest and no one is there to trade, does it make a sound?
198  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: Black Arrow Customers - Consumer Complaints Links on: August 16, 2014, 05:02:49 AM
Matt Carson / Minersource is not remotely a good actor in all of this, he previously went by the handle borito4 and is a known scammer on this board. Unfortunately if I had known that's who he was, that would've even prevented me from ordering directly from BA. We don't yet know the extent to which he's in on this, but the china trips suggest it's really deep, so if you are in a position to go after Minersource via the US FTC, go hard no matter what bullshit his "lawyer" says to intimidate you.
199  Economy / Scam Accusations / Re: Black Arrow 28nm 100Ghash Bitcoin ASIC from $0.49/GH/s on: August 11, 2014, 05:48:38 PM
The asshole criminal Sovu decided that he was going to troll ecointalk today, and the nonsense he has to say us funny, I highly recommend checking it out.
200  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 11, 2014, 05:54:41 AM
So by the Chinese numerology / homophone reasoning, for us the numeral 1 should make us think of victory, 6 some happy fun time, and possibly 8 is positive if you're hungry.
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