[XMR] Monero Speculation

[N-rG]

The chart can trick.

From 200 to 180 are 10% looks heavier than from 100 to 90 but are also 10%. When I start to go long/short the first day i was mostly in the red zone...with some money in it is sometimes not easy to not close. But than I just come back and remind myself, that i had a good reason to do so or so. So i usually stick to it.

For me im totally fine when the price would fall to 90 or 85 i'm not concerned about that. (My last average was ~102 in buy). tbh i actually would enjoy it cause there is another chance to make a good hit to cheap coins.

Is there actually something similar structured like crowdfounding/kickstarter for XMR projects?

Something where I can see which projects for XMR are planned/in progress (movies, websites, GUI etc.) and need either financial suppor or man power?

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[smooth]

Is there actually something similar structured like crowdfounding/kickstarter for XMR projects?

Something where I can see which projects for XMR are planned/in progress (movies, websites, GUI etc.) and need either financial suppor or man power?

Yes, the Forum Funding System in forum.getmonero.org

[BitcoinNewsMagazine]

Every trader has losses you just need to learn from your losses to improve your entries and exits. Trading is an art and not everyone can be a success at it just like few can paint well enough to make a living off it.

The best strategy for someone new to trading is to go long on an established strong trend up. Don't try to catch a falling knife or short. Always use a stop loss and let your winners run. When there is a strong trend in progress you just want to take a piece of the pie and get out before the trend reverses.

It is much more difficult than that, i bought at 0.0114 thinking it was on the way up(broke my rule of not buying above 0.011) and not much later the price fell below my buy-limit which felt horribly, every-time i don't stick to my rules i end up losing money. I would say trading is very much about discipline and impulse control which i still lack(still i am doing ok).

Right now Monero is definitely not in a strong trend up, just take a look at the daily chart. Use a 200 MA to judge whether an asset is in a bull or bear market long term. Check different time frames also.

If you look at the trend you notice that each new peak is less deep, you just have to have patience and not do stupid mistakes(luckily i only had 0.48 BTC left to spend).

Now the bottom has moved up to 0.011, i did go long with my XMR for a small interest,i still think the medium term is up.

Try reading Trading in The Zone sometime.

[Hueristic]

Shit, dropped $1500 on the tables last night. Should have bought and stayed home!

One time on my birthday I lost like $500 playing Blackjack,
drove home drunk as fuck to get more money,
went back to the casino and lost another $500.
Not my best birthday lol.
I guess Im just lucky I didnt get caught driving drunk. Really stupid move on my part. 

Shit I hear ya! Glad you didn't get busted or get in a wreck. Weird I've only been pulled over drunk once and Got let go because I walked the line on my hands but I was speeding my ass off! Good thing I was drinking gin and he couldn't smell it.

Dropped anther 6 or 700 today. DOH I quite for the weekend.

[adolf512]

I guess my real mistake was not going all in earlier(when the price was below 0.0106), i simply kept to much BTC(0.4) reserved for bids that never got filled and realised my mistake too late, trading with limited funds can be very frustrating. It is frustrating that my profit on XMR(if i would be stupid enough to sell now) isn't as large as it should be but i guess it is a price you have to pay to learn(the hard way).

In any case it is now obvious that people are willing to buy at higher and higher price now, the buy support after a drop is returning earlier each time.

[TrueCryptonaire]

There is a way to solve the price volatility problem to the vendors.
Whenever they get paid x amount, they open a short position of x amount. When the escrow is released they close the short position. If the price of Monero has risen, the escrowed amount has risen but the short position is offsetting it. If the price of Monero has dropped, the escrowed amount of Moneros has dropped in value but the short position has risen and thus offsetting the price drop.

Therefore, there is no need to worry for the vendors... Monero economy has currently all the components for all the market participants to play around.

[CoinCidental]

There is a way to solve the price volatility problem to the vendors.
Whenever they get paid x amount, they open a short position of x amount. When the escrow is released they close the short position. If the price of Monero has risen, the escrowed amount has risen but the short position is offsetting it. If the price of Monero has dropped, the escrowed amount of Moneros has dropped in value but the short position has risen and thus offsetting the price drop.

Therefore, there is no need to worry for the vendors... Monero economy has currently all the components for all the market participants to play around.

its only a matter of time before XMR reaches another ATH
a lot of people are happily taking this opportunity to add to their stack (me included )

[freedomgo]

There is a way to solve the price volatility problem to the vendors.
Whenever they get paid x amount, they open a short position of x amount. When the escrow is released they close the short position. If the price of Monero has risen, the escrowed amount has risen but the short position is offsetting it. If the price of Monero has dropped, the escrowed amount of Moneros has dropped in value but the short position has risen and thus offsetting the price drop.

Therefore, there is no need to worry for the vendors... Monero economy has currently all the components for all the market participants to play around.

its only a matter of time before XMR reaches another ATH
a lot of people are happily taking this opportunity to add to their stack (me included )

I guess the current price is already a gift and if this is not manipulated, how do you call it?

Whales are already making good money due  to the panic selling and I just hope we will be back on top before the end of the year. I receive an advise from someone that I should but XMR now so I did.

[CoinCidental]

There is a way to solve the price volatility problem to the vendors.
Whenever they get paid x amount, they open a short position of x amount. When the escrow is released they close the short position. If the price of Monero has risen, the escrowed amount has risen but the short position is offsetting it. If the price of Monero has dropped, the escrowed amount of Moneros has dropped in value but the short position has risen and thus offsetting the price drop.

Therefore, there is no need to worry for the vendors... Monero economy has currently all the components for all the market participants to play around.

its only a matter of time before XMR reaches another ATH
a lot of people are happily taking this opportunity to add to their stack (me included )

I guess the current price is already a gift and if this is not manipulated, how do you call it?

Whales are already making good money due  to the panic selling and I just hope we will be back on top before the end of the year. I receive an advise from someone that I should but XMR now so I did.

i wouldnt call it manipulation
i think XMR is a solid coin to hodl at this price
and make 200-300% in the future
oasis market panic is over and done with now and people are still buying it
because it will be used in the future ,maybe  for privacy, ransomeware and other dark markets .......

[TrueCryptonaire]

There is a way to solve the price volatility problem to the vendors.
Whenever they get paid x amount, they open a short position of x amount. When the escrow is released they close the short position. If the price of Monero has risen, the escrowed amount has risen but the short position is offsetting it. If the price of Monero has dropped, the escrowed amount of Moneros has dropped in value but the short position has risen and thus offsetting the price drop.

Therefore, there is no need to worry for the vendors... Monero economy has currently all the components for all the market participants to play around.

its only a matter of time before XMR reaches another ATH
a lot of people are happily taking this opportunity to add to their stack (me included )

Me too, just added 2 more bids and to little higher prices (currently 5 bids waiting for the people dump in case bitcoin rise might cause some kind of FOMO among the Monero community).
I see the future of XMR pretty bright. Dark markets in general are interested in Monero, but also I see it has a great potential to be a tax haven... But that probably requires some mainstream marketing which can be achieved by pumping the price up, up and up.

[Stringer Bell]

There is a way to solve the price volatility problem to the vendors.
Whenever they get paid x amount, they open a short position of x amount. When the escrow is released they close the short position. If the price of Monero has risen, the escrowed amount has risen but the short position is offsetting it. If the price of Monero has dropped, the escrowed amount of Moneros has dropped in value but the short position has risen and thus offsetting the price drop.
...

I believe the original SR had such a system in-place. A seller of goods could "Lock In" an exchange rate, for a particular deal, if they were worried the rate would move against them and make the sale unprofitable. This feature was there fairly early on. Before there were several advanced markets where a trader could do this, SR made it possible for anybody to do it without needing to know what long/short even means.

Perhaps some of today's markets have incorporated this too? I wouldn't be surprised if they haven't, the price of BTC is actually considered pretty stable now. If no such hedging system exists, perhaps they should look at it again - for Monero now especially. I'd say this is one of the big reasons larger traders aren't adopting it right away, the volatility compared to BTC. If they could hedge against the price volatility, same way SR1 made it possible, it would make accepting XMR a no-brainer.

When SR was just getting started, Bitcoin's volatility was worse than Monero's today - we had moves between $1 and $20 for a while, despite this, the demand was so strong a vibrant dark-market was created. In it's wake, hundreds of new markets formed to fill it's place.

SR was way ahead of it's time, looking back on it now..  Great community vibe back then too, that was all killed, not unlike the FUD/troll attacks on the community we've seen on bitcointalk, attempting to make the place hostile and divided.. We must remember what is truly important; Crypto money provides a path to real financial freedom, freedom from central bankers and other organized financial crimes which have been legitimized. Such games are not possible when you play on our system. BTC and XMR can worth together masterfully to help the people reclaim what's rightfully ours. A fair playing field, that is all.

[Stringer Bell]

"New financial technologies such as bitcoin may become increasingly attractive to investors as a protection against central bank low- and negative-interest-rate policies that threaten capitalism, according to billionaire bond manager Bill Gross.

Policies by the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan and European Central Bank are destroying historical business models that foster savings, investment and economic growth, Gross, who runs the $1.5 billion Janus Global Unconstrained Bond Fund, said in an October investment outlook released Tuesday.

He said that as investors lose faith in the system, they will increasingly seek havens."

Full Article:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-04/janus-s-gross-says-bitcoin-blockchain-may-counter-central-banks

[boestin]

Any advice on buying Monero at this point, will it do another 10X?

[Shiroslullaby]

Yes, as sad as it is, Monero will definitely be used for future ransomware payments.
I expect the same for any coin that gets decent traction and has strong privacy features.
There have been ransomware operations earning upwards of a million dollars a month in payments.
That is a lot of new customers buying coins if they shift to Monero.
As much as I hate it, we will probably profit because of the innocent people being forced to buy Monero to unlock their files.  

There is a way to solve the price volatility problem to the vendors.
Whenever they get paid x amount, they open a short position of x amount. When the escrow is released they close the short position. If the price of Monero has risen, the escrowed amount has risen but the short position is offsetting it. If the price of Monero has dropped, the escrowed amount of Moneros has dropped in value but the short position has risen and thus offsetting the price drop.

That's actually genius.
I always wondered what people who had a lot of money in escrow did to secure their funds against a loss.

[adolf512]

Any advice on buying Monero at this point, will it do another 10X?

yes it sure can https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h_-kB3pasZs especially if we get som good news, but the price short term can change in any direction. I guess a lot of people want to get rid of their xmr now and the buy-support is not that strong above 0.011 , hence the low price(i make almost no profit if i sell now).

I will probably not long xmr again, i prefer being able to sell if the price is very likely to go down(after a peak).

[CoinCidental]

There is a way to solve the price volatility problem to the vendors.
Whenever they get paid x amount, they open a short position of x amount. When the escrow is released they close the short position. If the price of Monero has risen, the escrowed amount has risen but the short position is offsetting it. If the price of Monero has dropped, the escrowed amount of Moneros has dropped in value but the short position has risen and thus offsetting the price drop.

Therefore, there is no need to worry for the vendors... Monero economy has currently all the components for all the market participants to play around.

its only a matter of time before XMR reaches another ATH
a lot of people are happily taking this opportunity to add to their stack (me included )

Me too, just added 2 more bids and to little higher prices (currently 5 bids waiting for the people dump in case bitcoin rise might cause some kind of FOMO among the Monero community).
I see the future of XMR pretty bright. Dark markets in general are interested in Monero, but also I see it has a great potential to be a tax haven... But that probably requires some mainstream marketing which can be achieved by pumping the price up, up and up.

I wouldnt worry about mainstream marketing ....these things have a way of sorting themselves out
i would say the XMR community is only second to eth and when we get a  GUI and some quick wallets
more people will start keping their money safe from prying eyes .......
new Dark Markets will keep popping up like mushrooms  
monero would make a very suitable coin for gambling games in areas where gambling is not permitted by law
there is also the possibility of price rises from stolen and hacked bitcoins being turned into XMR etc
XMr is one of the (few) coins that actually has a bright future ......

[Anon136]

Yes, as sad as it is, Monero will definitely be used for future ransomware payments.
I expect the same for any coin that gets decent traction and has strong privacy features.
There have been ransomware operations earning upwards of a million dollars a month in payments.
That is a lot of new customers buying coins if they shift to Monero.
As much as I hate it, we will probably profit because of the innocent people being forced to buy Monero to unlock their files.  

Is ransomware really that bad? I mean its better to have to pay some dude a few thousand dollars than to have your major competitor silently monitoring your network activity for years, or silently scooping up confidential customer information, or nickel and dimeing for years office space style. The extortionist is discovering your vulnerabilities for you so that you can patch them (if that be through social engineering it makes no difference). Firms hire pen testers and pay them up front. How different is this really except you pay the pen tester on the back end?

I actually sold bitcoin to an institution that had its database encrypted with ransom ware. The hacker only wanted like 600 bucks. For a big institution. It was really a pretty reasonable fee for uncovering a vulnerability.

I know, I know. It's basically the business model of governments. Provide service without asking if anyone even wants the service then unilaterally decide the price afterwards. Im not justifying it. Its not a good thing. It's still wrong. I just wanted to point out that they are actually providing a useful service.

[N-rG]

btw (offtopic but important):
https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/56fv7h/the_monero_stackexchange_needs_you_only_10_days/

[bobabouey2]

There is a way to solve the price volatility problem to the vendors.
Whenever they get paid x amount, they open a short position of x amount. When the escrow is released they close the short position. If the price of Monero has risen, the escrowed amount has risen but the short position is offsetting it. If the price of Monero has dropped, the escrowed amount of Moneros has dropped in value but the short position has risen and thus offsetting the price drop.
...

I believe the original SR had such a system in-place. A seller of goods could "Lock In" an exchange rate, for a particular deal, if they were worried the rate would move against them and make the sale unprofitable. This feature was there fairly early on. Before there were several advanced markets where a trader could do this, SR made it possible for anybody to do it without needing to know what long/short even means.

Perhaps some of today's markets have incorporated this too? I wouldn't be surprised if they haven't, the price of BTC is actually considered pretty stable now. If no such hedging system exists, perhaps they should look at it again - for Monero now especially. I'd say this is one of the big reasons larger traders aren't adopting it right away, the volatility compared to BTC. If they could hedge against the price volatility, same way SR1 made it possible, it would make accepting XMR a no-brainer.

When SR was just getting started, Bitcoin's volatility was worse than Monero's today - we had moves between $1 and $20 for a while, despite this, the demand was so strong a vibrant dark-market was created. In it's wake, hundreds of new markets formed to fill it's place.

SR was way ahead of it's time, looking back on it now..  Great community vibe back then too, that was all killed, not unlike the FUD/troll attacks on the community we've seen on bitcointalk, attempting to make the place hostile and divided.. We must remember what is truly important; Crypto money provides a path to real financial freedom, freedom from central bankers and other organized financial crimes which have been legitimized. Such games are not possible when you play on our system. BTC and XMR can worth together masterfully to help the people reclaim what's rightfully ours. A fair playing field, that is all.

Hedging is not without cost or risk.

In the 2013 journal, Ulbricht comments on 03/24/2013 that he had been “been slowly raising the cost of hedging”, suggesting he was trying to discourage use of it. On 04/10/2013, he writes “some vendors using the hedge in a falling market to profit off of me by buying from themselves. turned of access log pruning so I can investigate later. market crashed today.” This suggests he was no longer keen on the hedging system and was planning on scrapping it anyway when the vendors began abusing it, the market crashed (increasing losses), and then on top of that, the account was drained by what he believed was the DEA (see the journal & spreadsheet entries) a month later.

https://np.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/2tgymg/silk_goxed_how_dpr_used_mtgox_for_hedging_lost_big/

[CoinCidental]

btw (offtopic but important):
https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/56fv7h/the_monero_stackexchange_needs_you_only_10_days/

joined!