Here is a special Bitcoin technical update,given the very strong, but potentially overheating trend.
Keep up the great work! Donated 5btc  One quick question, when do we know if it has clearly broken out of the price channel? If we keep in this price channel the market really cannot move to $5 till July... |
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I think that there is redistribution of wealth with deflation too, to the money owners from everyone else.
In the case of price inflation the redistribution is from the money owners to everyone else. If the price inflation is caused by monetary inflation, most gains of the redistribution goes to the first receivers of the new issued money, since don't suffer the price inflation when they first spend it.
In the case of a currency run, other currencies (or other forms of money) holders also gain. For example, when the dolar collapses, owners of precious metals will enjoy a big wealth transfer.
Yes, that is because an 'investment' in the economy money is the same as an 'General Investment' in the entire economy. Think of it as a weighted basket investment in every venture in the entire economy... That is what money is. When somebody 'makes' money, they are getting this investment for no-cost (theft, or predetermined inflation). When the money supply is fixed, that means that the only way to get such an 'investment' in the economy is to buy if from somebody in the economy. The 'wealth redistribution' is a fury then also. As the only reason that a 'money holder' is getting more wealthy, is because the entire economy is getting more wealthy. (if there is no monetary inflation). The only way that this 'money holder' can get money, is to trade it for goods and services. (being part of the economy) |
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New update CHK@cGrwEuDePcxiE9QVcvarJ3gL5CfNSiI14W-GBGZIDng,6XIDHP7m3MP3E-t8q4-7b-AomM4qwPqHFyzO-zw4oN8,AAIC--8/bitcoin_wiki20110430.7z |
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The mystique of Satoshi thing is good for the bitcoin, within 12 months we'll see the question growing in the media "Who is Satoshi?"
Who is John Galt? |
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Check it out! USK@fhPDBxP3nusIatIHk076GYmov05n2zIDlG6L8pySdIs,Q7R9g4ZW7JNE4ouuvbtClAdt2mvZZbIWPIX~DhYiJY8,AQACAAE/Bitcoin/0/ Hope to update it soon! |
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If you always execute faster than the other guys, it doesn't matter what kind of NDA they have with their employees. They're screwed either way.  There is nothing wrong about keeping a secret until you are ready. Often if things are made public too early, then everyone gets a bad impression and are hard to convince once it is ready to use. |
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Agreed. But I think price deflation can lead to miss-allocation of resources too. For example, a business closed when it would be profitable without price deflation
Both ends of the business are effected by price deflation/inflation. All other things equal, the business should maintain the same profit margins. (Income and Costs decrease at the same rate) With price inflation, that means that either the economy is getting smaller. Or there is a redistribution of wealth... Both of those make otherwise profitable business unprofitable. With price deflation, that means that the economy is growing. (Or people are saving for future hard times). Either the business must be unprofitable and is made redundant by competition. Or is deemed 'not important' by the community v.s. saving for the future. |
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i assume you're referring to the Depth Table? i can see that but there are no links or buttons that allow or even imply an ability to cancel an order. i'm using Mac OSX Snow Leopard. anyone else with same problem?
The only browser that is stable with MTGox is Firefox. |
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They need to accept Bitcoin donations!
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If I was a miner, I would be planing to make my own rules... The question is if the other miners will accept my blocks or not. It comes down to at some point the miners adjusting their rules for maximum profit, while not getting rejected by the rest of the network.
What we need is a proper game theory analysis of Bitcoin fees, the rules that miners can set, and the risk of getting your block rejected.
If Bitcoin becomes the dominant monetary system, then very very low fees might still be very safe. We just don't know yet.
Edit:
I put 10 BTC down for a game theory analysis of the Bitcoin fee system as it stands v.s. a system where there is no 'fixed' block limit. Only what the other miners choose to accept. Must be peer reviewed.
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You are bidding for one soul nice and ripe and 28 years old.
I wouldn't want to own another persons soul, even if somebody paid me for it. |
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The current breed of stock generators, generate continuously, and only ignore a block if it is deemed illegal.
When transaction fees become the main incentive to generate a new breed of generators will be developed that will maximize the profit made. One of the features of this bread of generator is that certain 'rules' will be voluntarily agreed upon, some will not accept blocks that have two many low fee transactions, and will wait for blocks that have only higher fee transactions.
The risk of a generator who accepts too many (new) low fee transactions is that the most of the network will ignore and orphan it's block.
This is an interesting, market based solution. Generators can stop competitors from undercutting them, by "voting" out blocks that don't adhere to their own customized rules. I'm not convinced that it is sustainable. It looks like a problem for game theory. If generators get too greedy, accepting all transactions, They run the risk that most of their peers will reject their hard work generating a block. If they reject blocks that their peers have accepted, they'll waste time working on a smaller block chain. If this sort of thing works, then miners should be doing it now! This will stop the spam problem: If miners start rejecting blocks that are too generous to spamers, we shouldn't need a block size limit. I suppose, though, that the block size limit IS an implementation of a voluntary rule. Though a rather primitive one, it's sufficient for now. Perhaps miners will converge to using an optimal rule, similar to what I've described and I'm trying to preempt this development. This definitely looks like the problem of finding an "optimal strategy" in game theory. The cartel will naturally charge as much as the market can withstand: If there is a serious thread from double spending then the market will accept higher fees. If there isn't much of a threat to double spending, then the transaction cost will and should go down to virtually zero. |
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This has already been talked about here: https://www.bitcoin.org/smf/index.php?topic=1847.0To summarise, the miners will from some sort of self-regulating cartel to make sure that the fees don't go to 0. The cartel will reject block that have too many 'free/low-fee' transactions in it. The will set their own rules like: A transaction that has a fee less than 0.0001 BTC must wait at least 4 blocks before being accepted. If the cartel becomes too profitable, some members will leave it and accept transactions under their own rules. Overall, it should work out that the system naturally balances to the security required by the network. |
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When my projects are made public, I'll pay you (or one of your writers) to write a well-researched article on my projects. You could (should) make profit of this.
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This poll is much harder. I'm bookmarking $20 for January next year.
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unfortunately, the US gov't will set a higher std for BTC and laundering vs the USD. the will use the anonymity argument against BTC while the real reason will be to protect the USD franchise.
Bitcoin will be taken up by the markets that get the most benefit from it. Markets that have high overheads using fiat money will have a much larger impulse to move to Bitcoin than those that operate relativity freely. Money Laundering, Drug Trade, Assassinations, Tax Avoidance, Internet Payments. All have a high overhead, these will be types of things that move to Bitcoin with the most vigour. Naturally. Decriminalize victimless crime. Eliminate positions of power without production.
Correct, the reason that Bitcoin will be used by these things is because there is a market for it. Without prohibition (except Assassination), the market doesn't need to be opaque. Without prohibition, there wouldn't be much of a primed market for Bitcoin, It would be much harder to have made it popular. In many ways the Cat is out of the bag; the horse has bolted. Welcome to the wild west, didn't the 'wild west' get it's name from being Wild? |
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2 BTC sent! |
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Either Bitcoin Reaches $10 this year, or it never dose.  |
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There is lots of confusion about this topic from Keynesian 'economists.'
The ‘deflationary spiral’ is a real condition that affects the fiat reserve back system.
First you need to understand that there is no ‘money’ as an asset, but a whole lot of ‘IOU’s’ that we are trading. When the money supply is contracting (deflation) that means people are paying back their loans. (or saving).
The other thing is to understand is there is MORE loans out there than ‘money,’ so when people pay back their loans, the money to pay back the reaming loans becomes harder to find.
When the economy is booming or growing, more and more people take out loans to fund their future endeavours, thus increasing the monetary supply. Because the economy is growing, this masks the real inflation (of the monetary supply).
The deflationary spiral happens when people start saving because of a slowing or contracting economy. The money supply gets smaller as the loans get paid back, but because there is more loans that money, the total liquid money supply quickly gets smaller. Remember hording means the repayment of loans, meaning money is being destroyed. The loans get harder and harder to repay, and people start defaulting.
Thus in the current economic system, dollars will become very expensive stoping people spending, slowing the economy. Not because they are saving (for future spending), but because they are paying back their loans (so they don't have to pay interest).
Bitcoins are different. Bitcoins go up in value when the bitcoin economy grows, and go down in value when it contracts. Everything is the opposite to the fiat fractional reserve banking system.
Bitcoins ONLY deflate in value when the Bitcoin Economy is GROWING.
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