Thanks

Updated view:



My trading target was (ATH - 2%) that resulted in $1151 on Bitfinex from the $1175 high of December 2013 (similar price levels on other exchanges). Price is now below $985 which is just back within the channel and has already made a 50% retracement from today's low. My view is to acknowledge the significant piercing of the upper channel border with a likely retest of the high, probably in the form of a cup & handle. The question is: how long will that take?

The Gann chart shows an important period ending this month. In the prior period change from May 2016, there was a head-fake dip just before price took off. Price then rose while gyrating around the Gann 1x1 line, all within the channel from the ~$160 low. We're also at the third pair of the Gann chart, which has been pierced but not yet definitively exceeded. The next Gann period changes in October 2017 which could mark the end of the handle. It is difficult for me to find any point where Bitcoin would decline below $800 during that period; sub-$700 would fall out of the channel and seems an incredibly unlikely path.

With the recent high I've expanded the channel. The initial channel from the November 2015 high is the blue dotted line with shaded area, and the second one from the June 2016 high is the thin blue line. The dashed purple line is the midpoint of the latest channel currently at just under $910, which is barely less than the initial channel top line at $920. Back in June 2016 the initial channel was tested but not exceeded.

Bitcoin is behaving very similarly to equity markets, albeit with a lag. This is probably due to a spillover effect where capital flows into the largest pools first (major currency and equity markets) and as resistance builds there, excess then flows down to the next tiers - including Bitcoin. Observe that volume is still very low compared to what would be expected during major runs like this with only Kraken showing a significant spike in USD and Chinese exchanges being consistently high during 2016.

Martin Armstrong has stated that market behavior this month should provide perspective for how things will unravel. I think Bitcoin will continue to behave mostly in line with how Armstrong describes the flows into other major markets seeking relative safety and return. That also applies to other cryptocurrencies and, considering the size of those markets relative to Bitcoin, they should rise at a higher rate.

This is a critical period and, unless Bitcoin retests or exceeds ATH again, I will not be trading BTCUSD until buying in the $700-850 range. All of my trading is now going back to crypto-only, primarily BTC/ETH/LTC/XMR. I will reevaluate toward the end of January.

tl;dr: Unless situation changes before end of January, Bitcoin in 2017 is likely to form cup & handle - handle may take most of the year to form and will probably stay above $800.

The following was analysis from January 3rd.


Here is an updated chart.



The projection line tops out at about $1210 this week and $1250 by end of month. If the value doubles on a weekly basis, that is an immediate sell signal for me. It would have to approach $2000 in that case. Since we have not yet seen a spike in volume that would indicate trend exhaustion I consider that potential still in play.

Diversification assets in crypto, in order of preference:

• XMR
• LTC
• ETH
• ETC
• ZEC

Any others that are promising?

The vision appears symbolic, indicating that the gentiles or goyim were no longer unclean or abhorrent. I find that Paul's writings from 1 Corinthians 10:23 on are more relevant to this.


It is not the food that is a concern since Christ was sacrificed, but the respect and love for others that matters. This is much like inhaling a medium-rare burger in front of a vegan could be rude to the point of offense; consideration of others is the primary focus.

Much of the Old Testament, Deuteronomy in particular, struck me as a survival guide for a society. Numerous points of instruction were prudent forms of disease management and prevention considering the conditions of the time. I consider the change this way: with the practices ingrained in their cultural mindset and the people expanded in number, threats of eradication waned and the society as a whole matured to a point where it could be discerning with Jesus' guidance.

Bitcoin incorporates PoW as a method of verifying transactions and charges units within its own token system.

A better solution may be to charge PoW instead of units, similar to how spam messages are made costly. The PoW provided from the clients in order to have a transaction accepted onto the network is then used to verify blocks. Large-scale miners would no longer be necessary, replaced by pools instead; users then run dual-duty as clients and miners. There would also be no need to charge units for payment.

Essentially, the idea is: P2Pool meets hashcash meets blockchain.

Thoughts?

Thank you for the response. If that is Shelby's insight, I'm disappointed.

Please elaborate, particularly on the bolded section.

Damn the torpedoes!

This is the most focus and direction you've had in recent memory, and the most likely to gain traction rapidly. There may even be some insight gained while working on ACOIN that can be applied to the new PL and social platform. You can't be expected to do it all and you can still go the slow and steady route if this acceleration gives way.

Have you considered taking pictures of your essentials, food and whatnot, and asking for funding to cover them? I'm sure there are individuals interested in supporting real progress in this area.

Do you expect a basket of currencies as MA has suggested, or something else?


I came to the same conclusion. In addition, I would argue that anonymity must be incorporated or the system will suffer the same protocol attacks Bitcoin is currently experiencing. Even with anonymity it is possible that protocol erosion could occur.

A technical attack without anonymity could simply filter known addresses (and optionally, linked ones) at the centralised verification level, causing enough delay in transactions that participants will opt for a "new, improved version" that delegates power more directly to centralisation. With anonymity that isn't as easy, but there will probably be enough information gleaned through other methods to target the intended subject.

I'm left wondering whether a ZK routing method wouldn't be more effective. Of course, that might entail rebuilding the Internet as we know it.

That said, unprofitable PoW is currently be the best option enforcing skin-in-the-game.

Regardless of the truth you're trying to reveal, practicaldreamer has a point.


Indeed. The greatest problem is one of communication, wherein the kind of response elicited from your mother starts happening as a knee-jerk reaction. I've found the Socratic method to be far more effective than pressing an issue. Is everyone at the same level of awareness and understanding?


Thinking rationally is one thing - it's hard to act rationally when angry. Not that I've been able to handle that exceptionally well...

I missed your progress on this, and a cursory search didn't find much. Was there headway, or was your latter declaration final after testing different concepts?


Yes, when? Still waiting


Relevant:

Larry Summers to Speak about Bitcoin at Consensus 2016

TPTB, I assume you don't think the low is in yet after the Bitfinex dip to the mid-100s.

My interpretation of Socrates' forecast is that we may see a pop in gold to near last week's highs before month-end with a resumption of the downtrend thereafter, so it will be interesting to see whether gold follows Bitcoin's activity sometime in the next two weeks.

I've asked him numerous times and in different ways about forecasts regarding Bitcoin. He has variously responded with dismissal, ridicule and scorn. IMO he has probably done at least some analysis and may eventually relent on publicizing some results, but it's unlikely to be anywhere near as soon as we'd like. He seems to have softened his stance on Bitcoin somewhat to a more neutral view even though his statements indicate a distinct lack of understanding.

In addition, I inquired a few times about anomalies or the capability of Socrates to discern new technologies - essentially anything that could disrupt or interfere with the cycles being studied. Again, no direct reponse.

The aggrandized ego and hostility is one aspect of Armstrong's personality that I'm not fond of, though I can understand considering the circumstances he's been in.

Upon the 'Knowledge Age' arriving, what is an expected size of maximally-cohesive social groups and what are the relative ranges of expertise for each of them? Where does physical transportation fit, and to what extent?

I'm looking at side-chains as encapsulating cocoons or pods rather than pegs, since it seems that the value contained in each does have the potential of varying.

1 BTC -> PodA (1.0)

PodA has been instantiated with 1 BTC and is valued as such (this is similar to Proof-of-Burn so long as PodA exists). Now assume that demand for PodA increases by 50% which would value PodA at 1.5 BTC. This would mean that an additional 0.5 BTC is transferred to the PodA side-chain.

0.5 BTC -> PodA (1.5)

It's dependent upon simple demand (inflow) and supply (outflow). What's tricky is that this is all instantiated within a static parent supply (Bitcoin's 21mm divisible units).

The key to this working is the atomicity maaku mentions, otherwise the transactional barrier is no different from the Btcpay method in Counterparty.

Yes, when a market is experiencing increasing liquidity. Gold is not, so institutional pricing will remain elevated even during retail price declines -- accumulation is occurring during all phases.

Bitcoin is showing the growth stages. What if all 21mm units were already mined, bitcoins were familiar to all, and every other asset class was declining in real terms?

The transition I'm referring to is your suggestion that Bitcoin will win out in the end. I think nearly the rest of this decade will have to finish before there's a decisive shift.

Let's revisit a topic discussed (what seems like) ages ago.


Source

Source

Sound familiar? Replace Bitcoin Trust with China and it should.

The transition is in progress and far from complete; metals are still with us for years to come, whether we like it or not.

The difficulty and expense of understanding and securing bitcoins can be likewise exploited. Heartbleed is a perfect example of a fear trigger for many people.


Agreed, but memories fade quickly when fear and greed are involved. The real issue is the barrier to exit (entry must be as low as possible). As with GLD and SLV there could be redemption restrictions, perhaps when Bitcoin reaches five or six figures. It would be a small number of people able to raise $10mm to redeem 100 XBT at $100k each.


Yes, same as gold. Bitcoin then becomes an ideal tool for greater control rather than liberation. That isn't to say I think this is certain, as there's plenty more development to play out -- I just think Bitcoin is being infiltrated and usurped in potentially irreparable ways.


Of course, funds must flow in before flowing out (read: fleeced).

Derivatives are about to be unleashed on Bitcoin, so the problems gold has will become Bitcoin's. Yes it's becoming a big boy's game, and it'll be manipulated all the same.

The only difference is that investment must be saturated before it's fleeced. Bitcoin will have to go up a very long way until it's no longer the golden child of institutional giants.

Indeed, give credit where due. We're all in this together.

Big rises have yet to backfill. In order for the $1000+ high to fill, it would have to drop below $300, possibly as low as ~$160 before the trend reverses.

Of course growth rates may be enough to keep that from happening. If the ~$400-430 range holds through the supposed China deadline and the big investments start drawing in new usage, we could easily be headed back to the moon.

In short, April is going to be a pivotal month for Bitcoin (and gold, silver, bonds, nearly everything else). I think if a collapse doesn't happen here, we'll know whether Bitcoin will truly thrive by late 3rd to 4th quarter this year.