CampBX just shot to $7.24/BTC on low volume.

That's a t-shirt.

Spain to Request EU Bank Aid Soon: ECB Official (over the weekend)

Exposure. Without awareness, an idea doesn't spread. Some businesses may reject Bitcoin, but others might investigate and possibly embrace it - not necessarily in a mining capacity. As a technology-savvy business owner, I would be interested in a method that could generate additional income using the equipment I already have.

Only 36 hours until I upgrade from 2.4.1 to 2.4.2 - it will then be a continuous 30 day run

A major factor for the popularization of Linux in business environments was unsanctioned admin/user installation at workplace data centers and workstations.

Yes and no. As always, what we end up with will be more complex than it appears. There is an incentive structure that makes Bitcoin appealing no matter what stigma is projected on it.

Very similar to tax havens and countries friendly to international business corporations or trusts, there will be regions that openly offer the flexibility and freedom to use Bitcoin without backlash. Much discussion has been made about how Bitcoin reduces 'friction' in finance. When benefits and 'a better way of doing things' become apparent, they will eventually be adopted even in spite of opposing pressure.

There might always be VAT and government interference, but legislation can only delay or mask beneficial ideas and practices. No gathering of politicos can wave their collective magic fountain pen wands and make Bitcoin disappear any more than they've been successful at making Bittorrent vanish, because time is not on their side.

This may be about as good as it gets for covering PM shorts.

The markets are calling Bernanke on his bluff in this high-stakes poker game. Only ~$30 down on a major announcement Ben, really? Weak. And no real confirmation from other fiat? Sad.

Even though the house has the keys to the vault, it's way outnumbered by the players.

As tvbcof pointed out, credit has been given where due.

With a stable supply and a stable environment, gold does phenomenally well as money. The same applies to crypto-currencies, especially static-supply variants like Bitcoin that can do well in both growth and post-growth economies. In a relatively static growth system, it would be very difficult for wealth disparities to arise, and any disruptions would spread quickly until they become normalized.


Yes. Although redistribution may be more likely to occur in a market-force capacity because of that increased mobility.


Growth potential is still effectively unlimited.

cjdns?

One more thing to watch: the gold-silver ratio has now failed a third attempt to breach the 56-57 range high established in September 2011. Continued breakdown of the ratio will be a very good sign.

That hasn't worked so well with I2P & Tor - and those are just the two most popular darknets. Deep packet inspection isn't effective for detecting properly encrypted tunnels, and is incapable of operating outside of its own network reach. Encrypted traffic can be made to look like HTTPS and a direct connection can be avoided by adding proxies.

I wonder what your definition of 'wrong' is.

The Australian dollar experienced large-scale accumulation on its decline. After a week it dipped 300bp then rose the same amount to form a V bottom on the dailies, and with very few along for the ride.

Statistical concentration of capital is an overweight position and ripe for reversal. Within two days of the linked post, the dollar and the long bond slowed their ascent while gold shot up almost $100.

GLD statistically oversold means that there isn't much downside left. Where are we now? From 152, GLD rose to 159.

TLT flashed a warning on June 1st and is now down a hefty 5 points from that peak.

Brent crude is back over $100 and NYMEX is sure to follow, as accumulation is occuring here as well.

Phenomenal post! Thanks for sharing


Not at all! As Murphy suggested at the end of the discussion, future economies and growth will be unrecognizable.


The way Bitcoin is structured allows for development/growth (to use Murphy's terms) in a way so totally foreign to contemporary views that any lack of a deep understanding leads people to think it's a scam, when a decade from now we'll be laughing at how anyone could've even entertained that thought.

There's also a historical pattern in which slowing or stagnant growth builds pressure until a new direction for growth breaks out. Going the 'space cadet' route means it's likely that humanity will approach the limits possible on Earth, then expand outward from there - like the surface area of the light bulb to a body, activity from Earth will spread to other planets.

As long as we don't send ourselves into oblivion first

The end result remains the same.

Out of the four options, I would personally go with 1+2 with selective exposure to 3 and a token (disposable) amount in 4.

Another thing you can do without increasing Bitcoin exposure is invest with a project on the lending forum. Most are affiliated with Pirate's business and offer very high rates of return. After your initial investment has grown (maybe doubled), you can withdraw your capital and let the excess continue to grow.

If you want to avoid the excessive uncertainty surrounding Pirate's business, I recommend hashking's offering, which is backed by an established real-world business. The rates of return are more reasonable and/or stable.

You might be better off just keeping most of your bitcoins liquid for now, though - wait until a major event and then deploy after things have settled down for a while.


Go big or go home

Oh I was using dilution in regard to global usage of the dollar, not monetary inflation. Much like the Gox share of BTC trading has declined (dilution of the market by number and quality of competitors eroding Gox' share), usage of the USD around the world is declining relative to other currencies. Inflation is one reason for that decrease in usage.



Questions arise: to what extent will exploitation occur vs long-term productive enterprise, and by whom? Exploitation tends to result in difficulties later on, making continued exploitative activity more costly than more equitable ventures. Africa has been on China's & South American nations' radar for some time, with a lot of wealth engaged in such long-term dealings.

If you left the hedge on, you could've at least done well with the spread when the miners rise faster than gold

Jim Rickards says it best.


Once you start pulling the derivative thread, the whole illusory system comes unraveled...

In what market do you expect USD will be diluted, traditional markets, or Bitcoin? I see a spillover effect from USD to other currencies. In looking at the overall trend formed by the cyclical dollar strength patterns, I agree that the dollar will be diluted more than others (in both traditional and Bitcoin markets), largely because of its periods of relative strength and compliance efforts.

The only point I was making is that comparing a single position with an aggregate holding is misleading. You responded to silverbox's update on GLD with a GLD/GDXJ combination (in response to whether you covered or not, which is all well and good - but you are upside down with GLD alone) - not a valid comparison without noting the disparity. A system with integrated graphics could be compared to one with a discrete GPU, but it wouldn't be meaningful without noting the contextual distinction.

Yes I'm splitting hairs here a bit over a semantic issue, but I'm glad you had a hedge in place. I'd be even more glad for you if you had physical metal

The dilution of USD is a global effect, and I think inevitable that it's being reflected in the Bitcoin environment. Definitely a good thing for Bitcoin - increasing global mindshare with decreasing USD-exclusive exposure means that Bitcoin will be on the receiving end of wealth flows from multiple sources.

Gox may see a similar decrease in USD flows, but the overall BTC market share depends much more on policy. The recent AML/KYC moves have been very discouraging.