Bitcoin Forum
May 09, 2024, 08:11:30 PM *
News: Latest Bitcoin Core release: 27.0 [Torrent]
 
  Home Help Search Login Register More  
  Show Posts
Pages: « 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 [44] 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 »
861  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 23, 2012, 04:23:31 AM
Except when it lands on green.

That's getting hit by 2011 AG5 Smiley
862  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 23, 2012, 04:12:06 AM
One of particular note:  Political leaderships vs. the populations.

It is not a stretch in my mind to imagine the political leaderships of many important nation states finding that they have more in common with one another than they find with their own increasingly unruly underclasses...and much less to fear.

Yes, if communication among populations has increased, you can assume it has changed for the upper echelons too.
863  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 23, 2012, 04:08:01 AM
oh silverbox,

BTC 5.16,  gold 1559

This is like betting on black and red at the same time in roulette: you're going to win no matter what Wink
864  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 23, 2012, 03:45:30 AM
it was both.  the US excessively printed but we were able to get away with it b/c we were the centralized custodian of everyone's gold (only we could count it realtime). we were able to get away with years of inflation throughout the 1960's to fund the Vietnam war.  over time other countries caught on to what we were doing but probably didn't want to bother with coming to get their gold b/c it IS too heavy.

finally, France couldn't take it any longer and demanded their gold when the excesses could no longer be ignored.  then we defaulted.

this is why Bitcoin would be so superior.  with a keystroke the BOP could be settled nightly.

France was invaded during WWII, as was almost the entirety of Europe. Russia was perceived to be a looming menace in the period afterward. Would you want to cash out your bank account and keep it at home with a mob of thugs eyeing you from across the street?

Granted, transatlantic shipping always carries some risk, but the deliveries were made without event to the west. Any number of vessels were capable of carrying nearly all of Europe's gold in one run.

Today, dozens of supertankers are capable of transporting every above-ground ounce in the world with plenty of room to spare across the Atlantic in less than a week, and around the world in less than a month. As foolish as that would be, the capability is there - and not much slower than air freight. We may as well be arguing about China's woes in obtaining a measly 60+ tons.

And don't forget about teleportation! It may never be possible for complex organics, but a single atom is conceivable. But by the time that's feasible, we may have more pressing concerns Smiley
865  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 23, 2012, 12:44:26 AM
I disagree with your disagreement  Wink The abandonment of the gold standard was redemption issue -- i.e. excessive printing --  not a centralization problem.  French moving their gold back was just an failed attempt on gold suppression scheme: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_Gold_Pool

Leaving gold with Fed has always been more of a political gesture than logistic issue, even today much of the Germany and Chinese gold are still left with NY Fed, you think because it's too heavy?

The big gold cube might fall to the center of the earth because it's so heavy. Like the missing pyramids. You don't know about them? That's 'cause they sunk!

I still don't understand why you need to move gold around on a daily basis -- gold/silver certificates work just fine, as long as there's convertibility.

Yup. The dollar is a claim on the nation's accumulated wealth, held mainly in the form of gold. Without convertibility, you may as well have bought shares of a company that the company refuses to recognize.
866  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 23, 2012, 12:21:57 AM
So then gold is obviously radically undervalued..  160,000 per ounce please..

Us phyzzz holders can only hope. Please hold the war, famine, and roving gangs Smiley
867  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 23, 2012, 12:20:10 AM
how likely is it for the Internet to go down?  wasn't it designed to withstand a nuclear war?
To the extent that it would not support a reliable Bitcoin network operating at scale and under attack by the owners of significant chunks of the global network infrastructure...it's almost a certainty.
no way.
Watch and learn then.

The damage need not come from physical sources.

BLACK DETH OF TEH INTERWEBZ!!
868  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 23, 2012, 12:17:26 AM
how likely is it for the Internet to go down?  wasn't it designed to withstand a nuclear war?

a gold layer adds too much complexity, ironically.

It isn't likely, but the possibility remains - localized disruptions are more likely. The financial system is too crucial to modern life to leave to chance.

Seatbelts are annoying, cumbersome, and can cause more harm than help if used improperly. But in a rollover accident, you'll be glad you weren't ejected and crushed or dismembered.
869  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 23, 2012, 12:12:40 AM
Corrected for inflation, fuel costs twice what they were back then. And U.S. international trade is now about 50 times what it was back then. So we're talking about a multiple of 100 times the cost of doing business that way compared to say, 1938.

What about increased carrying capacity, range, and fuel efficiency?
870  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 23, 2012, 12:08:16 AM
my point is you don't need gold.  Bitcoin can serve as a reserve standard beneath a fiat system.

chodpaba's point about an abstraction layer wouldn't apply to Bitcoin b/c settlement could occur instantaneously btwn countries.

I agree that gold wouldn't be necessary, but it provides that final bit of protection. One of Bitcoin's main vulnerabilities is the communications infrastructure. If that's incapacitated in a major way, even temporarily, transactions using Bitcoin would be burdensome at best without some system developed for easy offline non-digital exchange.

Having gold available would be the safety net that allows things to keep going more smoothly and reliably than any centrally managed interim solution. We all grumble about saving for a rainy day when we could make use of it now, but we're awfully glad we have it when it's needed.
871  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 23, 2012, 12:02:00 AM
Okay, you're starting to make some sense. So, you propose that Bitcoin and PM's should be a high-volume trading pair.

Effectively. Gold as a relatively stationary reserve distributed globally; Bitcoin as a trinary money.

I use the term trinary because Bitcoin satisfies Triffin's dilemma, acting simultaneously and indefinitely as a Store of Value and Means of Exchange, with the resulting effect of being a reliable Metric of Value.
872  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 22, 2012, 11:41:04 PM
So kick up the value of gold to match the worldwide economy/developement level...  Its just a means to keep score, if that much weight of gold is required to settle up for smaller transactions obviously the value of gold is too low..  Oh wait we have.. gold is 1600 an ounce now, not 30.. Wink

Right now the battle is to control the majority of all available gold supply. As long as there is still physical present that can be extracted from current holders, and no other catastrophic catalysts occur, the game continues. Basically, anyone who can be persuaded or forced to sell his physical holdings is a target and will be squeezed until there is barely any but direct mine supply available from mining operations that can't be nationalized.

That's when revaluation is guaranteed. It's a possibility at any point from now until then - the probability just increases until that limit is reached.

The concern that tvbcof expressed about excessive concentration is real and valid. If there is too great a centralized holding of gold, whatever authority has it will wield an undue amount of influencing power. Yet again, that's where Bitcoin comes in Smiley
873  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 22, 2012, 11:27:28 PM
there is no way to take delivery of pm's on a global scale expeditiously.  that's the point.

How much gold do you need? How many gold dealers are there around the world? Don't they generally have several dozen to a few hundred ounces available most of the time, even in poorer countries?

Do you walk around with wads of cash in your pocket, just in case you need to buy a condo on a whim? Why would you have to do the same with gold?

If I want to transfer my gold assets from Calgary to Quito, I can contact my gold dealer and have him get in touch with a Quito dealer. If he has a contact there already, great - there's a trusted network already set up. If not, he can inform the Quito dealer how much I purchased and then digitally exchange the balance using a contemporary currency.

When I go to Quito, I can either pick up my metal from the dealer there or keep it there in storage for a fee if that service is offered. Either way, my gold has moved without moving. If I need to move tons at a time, there would simply have to be larger nodes involved as close as possible to the destination.

In a stable worldwide economy, moving that much around would be exceedingly rare, especially with gold revalued into the tens of thousands of dollars level. How often would most people need to transfer an ounce at a value of an average American's yearly salary. Using Bitcoin instead of fiat for transfer would be more reliable, safer, and definitely faster for large amounts.

A global financial system with gold integrated into it is viable now just using gold dealers - not even banks. The physical asset doesn't have to move but locally!

The scale you are talking about is personal spending, not large-scale international commerce.

See the bolded parts.

Using gold as a reference/reserve and marking to market daily as the Euro does, trends can be spotted quickly. It isn't necessary to transfer gold back and forth constantly, only at thresholds - e.g. BoP settlement is initiated at 5% of GDP. That could take months or even years. With daily feedback, the sample size should be great enough for financial firms to take rapid corrective action by slowing investments in less effective ventures while increasing others.

In concert with Bitcoin, balance of payments transactions could actually be conducted daily. This way, there would be an imbalance in the ratio of Bitcoin to gold present between two separate entities (banks, corporations, nations, etc). Failure of a cryptocurrency is necessarily greater than that of gold (at present), so there would be a somewhat greater risk to holding Bitcoins over gold. This incentive would spur the primary Bitcoin holder to acquire more gold.
874  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 22, 2012, 11:17:24 PM
lol, what you want every transaction to be in physical?  You can't have some in physical and some in papar??  Roll Eyes

That's the thing though. Once you add that abstraction layer you can not prevent it from becoming fractionalized.

This is where Bitcoin comes in. Rather than being restrained in the physical space but unrestricted in the financial arena (leading to fractionalization), with Bitcoin there are limits in both the physical and finance. Fractionalization can then only occur outside of Bitcoin, allowing for a steady ratio between gold and Bitcoin, unfettered by fiat issues.
875  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 22, 2012, 11:10:53 PM
there is no way to take delivery of pm's on a global scale expeditiously.  that's the point.

How much gold do you need? How many gold dealers are there around the world? Don't they generally have several dozen to a few hundred ounces available most of the time, even in poorer countries?

Do you walk around with wads of cash in your pocket, just in case you need to buy a condo on a whim? Why would you have to do the same with gold?

If I want to transfer my gold assets from Calgary to Quito, I can contact my gold dealer and have him get in touch with a Quito dealer. If he has a contact there already, great - there's a trusted network already set up. If not, he can inform the Quito dealer how much I purchased and then digitally exchange the balance using a contemporary currency.

When I go to Quito, I can either pick up my metal from the dealer there or keep it there in storage for a fee if that service is offered. Either way, my gold has moved without moving. If I need to move tons at a time, there would simply have to be larger nodes involved as close as possible to the destination.

In a stable worldwide economy, moving that much around would be exceedingly rare, especially with gold revalued into the tens of thousands of dollars level. How often would most people need to transfer an ounce at a value of an average American's yearly salary. Using Bitcoin instead of fiat for transfer would be more reliable, safer, and definitely faster for large amounts.

A global financial system with gold integrated into it is viable now just using gold dealers - not even banks. The physical asset doesn't have to move but locally!
876  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 22, 2012, 10:55:49 PM
What, you want a law saying its legal tender for all debts public and private??  Go to Utah Wink  

It doesn't take long to convert paper gold/silver to fiat..  Its functionally the same as currency.

Too hot Smiley

It doesn't take long, but it generally can't be exchanged directly. That kills the convenience factor.
877  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 22, 2012, 10:37:47 PM
that is best handled by a modernized gold ratio system integrated with the fiat system.

Uh isn't that what we already have?? lol

the ratio is like the spot price yo... (+~3% if you want to take delivery)

Yes, but it's officially treated as a tradeable asset, not a currency. Treating it as a currency would be very simple in practice.
878  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 22, 2012, 10:34:35 PM
If you do not physically control it you do not own it. If you are given something to represent the value of it you have exchanged it for that representation. Somebody else controls the actual, physical metal.

879  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 22, 2012, 10:29:38 PM
In order for any of that to happen you really must have a banking system set up to serve a functioning economy with the use of the metal. Which is where Utah has thus far fallen short, which will relegate the use of PM's there to the role of a novelty.

there is no way today's modern economy or banking system could function with a gold standard.  you couldn't move the metal fast enough. 

centralizing it at the LBMA or Comex introduces all sorts of accounting problems.  once you have a fiat representation of the metal the very function of the gold reserve can be manipulated.

Centralization does introduce additional risks. Decentralization, just like with public banking, modifies the incentive structure at a cost of redundancy. The greater the number of relatively equal participants, the harder it is to game the system. It's easier to work with the system than force it to submit. Distributed storage of gold at local or regional public banks would be the same as distributed fiat holdings, with the same effect.

Gold alone cannot be divided to a high enough degree. Fiat alone, in the hands of a central and insulated authority, cannot be prevented from diluting to too high a degree. Neither can be used alone in the context of growing human social structures. Of course, Bitcoin is proving that it can take the place of both, but in reality there is going to be a transition period - that is best handled by a modernized gold ratio system integrated with the fiat system.
880  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 22, 2012, 10:18:46 PM
It is cute that you would link to Investopedia in order to put some authoritiative weight behind your opinion.

I don't care what you think is 'cute'. You didn't provide a definition yourself, so unless you're going to do so, troll elsewhere.

No, monitization in this case would make gold and silver subject to the same kind of controls that are now placed upon currencies. And it would most likely mean that governments would confiscate a goodly chunk of them as occurred in 1933. In order for any of that to happen you really must have a banking system set up to serve a functioning economy with the use of the metal. Which is where Utah has thus far fallen short, which will relegate the use of PM's there to the role of a novelty.

Yes, liable to taxation, etc. So what? The supply cannot be fabricated the fiat is, which means theft is not possible in the manner it is with a strictly fiat system. Nor does it imply confiscation. And it certainly isn't as though the banking system is incapable of accommodating another foreign exchange unit, because that's all gold's representation would be - another currency. Stored in a vault, the amount digitally credited to an account, digitally accessible, and digitally transferable regardless of where the metal is stored.
Pages: « 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 [44] 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 »
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!