A brief discussion of Armstrong's latest crypto-related blog post: While he is certainly correct about the presence of thousands of coins being untenable from a human perspective, there is nothing preventing localized or private coin usage for small-scale purposes. This is especially relevant for machine-machine communication and transactions; while they would not carry much value outside of their local system, it could still be worthwhile in certain situations such as sensor networks. I think comparing Bitcoin to silver is borderline disingenuous. The former is a technology with properties of several asset classes while silver is a physical commodity material with monetary properties, not in itself a technology. This makes me think that Bitcoin would be more inline with NASDAQ or a tech stock, and comparing those does show similarities with an accelerated time-frame in the case of Bitcoin. The Socrates computer system has certainly been able to call the patterns, but the reasons for those patterns unfolding are not necessarily what Armstrong touts in his opinion. As he has stated so many times, human opinion cannot consistently describe markets - only an unbiased and objective computer has the potential for that. Perhaps Armstrong's perspective has been colored a bit too much by the existing paradigm of this world and led to his own bias. There's a good take from Daniel Jeffries on people accurately forecasting the future, but in exactly the inverse to what actually happens. A quote from that post: Visionaries see a future of telecommuting workers, interactive libraries and multimedia classrooms. They speak of electronic town meetings and virtual communities. Commerce and business will shift from offices and malls to networks and modems. And the freedom of digital networks will make government more democratic. Baloney. His biggest mistake is the sixth and final reason people are blind to the future. He took current inventions, air lifted them forward and imagined them as the solution to future problems. Wrong! Jeffries also correctly points out that the most significant advance of Bitcoin is it's functional implementation of triple-entry accounting, only the third advance in accounting for all of human history. Now read the following with that in mind: BitCoin is a trading vechicle. Trade it with that in mind ONLY. It will never replace the dollar, become a reserve currency, and it will not soar to $100,000. Those who believe such nonsense will be easily separated from their money. Trade it that way. Okay, we'll see...  Bitcoin is not just a trading vehicle even if it is behaving as such right now. It is also a highly tamper-resistant sequential-ordering chain, a cryptographic registry, a programmable contract platform - and the list goes on. That said, it certainly is not going to be a short-term process for Bitcoin to reach stratospheric levels or be established as a reserve currency; it may happen a lot sooner than many expect but it will still take years. Regardless of where it may go, the advice to never marry the trade is absolutely appropriate. |
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Quite aggravating. A curated filter mechanism would be preferable to banning, especially when the ban is arbitrary. Bitcoin is not a moderated system (yet) and the supporting communication channels also need to be free from authoritarian decree. I have not been participating on this forum for some time, partially because of the excessive noise and mod actions, mostly due to the fact that Bitcoin is now a mite boring. Good luck to all those still participating - may you spend ever more time enjoying life rather than starting at displays  |
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@miscreanity, imo all that you described is supports my logic on why Bitcoin’s (cryptocurrency’s) crypto winters are becoming longer in duration and less extreme in depth, i.e. speculation is gradually being supplanted by actual adoption.
When you mention Bitcoin in the context of this thread, are you referring to crypto in general? I agree with your assessment regarding the likelihood of a decline following this run up. It seems that you're also saying that the subsequent activity will be more turbulent, as investment in this sector becomes even more heated than during the prior subdued period - correct? As for 100k, I threw that out as a remote possibility for a spike high on overshoot. I do agree that the target of 40k is much more attainable in the near-term, although at the moment I have no charts to directly show such levels. My current charts top out around 20k. http://www.tradingview.com/x/kZTQwBYB/http://www.tradingview.com/x/0gb9bKRl/ |
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This isn't disputing your assessment, only contemplating how quickly widespread usage might occur and whether a major catalyst could be lurking. An adoption S-curve is not necessarily going to cause an immediate price move. These levels are certainly looking for a correction or at least a pause, though I wonder whether the recent ~30% dip in Bitcoin already cleared the froth.
So I'm left wondering... Bitcoin is a technology. The infrastructure is already in place for it to be used - smartphones. There are already existing paradigms that adults of all ages can use in order to make use of the system to make transfers.
Automobiles required roads, fuel and maintenance/repair support systems. The telephone needed vast stretches of cabling. The Internet required computers and communication hardware to be widely available. We are now in a period of Facebook, Instagram and WeChat where sudden and rapid user growth is a matter of software installation. The rails are already here, and general populations are starting to take interest.
Separately, what is the Bitcoin market value compared to the crypto economy as a whole? Will wealth held in Bitcoin simply spread to other crypto, simply shuffling the balance around? If so, is adoption better measured by the entire ecosystem?
Look at Litecoin now - launching while Bitcoin is stationary. If they keep popping off and Bitcoin starts waning, will awareness spread among individuals outside of crypto as they discover that there's an entire universe of investments that Bitcoin opened the door to?
Finally, which projects are close to active usage in existing environments aside from crypto? Ripple is certainly being made use of by banks; Stellar has its place as well as Iota... Bitcoin and Ethereum may take a back seat for a spell while more well-defined use cases run the show in the near-term.
Is this a hydra that will keep propelling crypto forward; when one lags, the others forge ahead? I am considering the potential that, even if Bitcoin stalls, the crypto economy as a whole may make new highs and continue doing so for some time.
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One of the most poignant aspects I've noticed is that sailors form a tightly-knit community no matter where in the world they are. Power boaters are the same as people on land - mostly unreliable and self-interested. Sailors have a different perspective; their pace of life is much more spiritual and self-sufficient. They will help almost without thinking, although they are far more rational than many people I know. Sharing with other sailors and protecting each other is ingrained. Almost like preppers at sea, but more practical and sane |
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His plan of action was to buy a live aboard sailboat and he's been living on one for the past 10 years. He also seems to be an engineer of some type and decided to try and design the ultimate but cheap quasi-house/sailboat that you can live on ($50,000 or something as a DIY kit). The boat is called the "Quidnon" and after a few years work just released a promo video for it the other day: http://quidnon.blogspot.com/2017/06/a-short-promotional-video.htmlKind of an interesting boat in terms of design decisions and look. It looks pretty ugly but has huge indoor room compared to normal boats and looks like it would instantly tip over in the ocean but he says he's tested them in simulation and it works good. I like the approach, and it would certainly be worthwhile to use for inner waterways and near-coastal travel. Blue water sailing or crossings would not be something I'd consider lightly, but the objectives of minimal maintenance with high reliability and simple operation make for a fantastic alternative to being stuck somewhere with a piece of real estate that could easily wind up forfeit due to jurisdictional insanity. Nice find. |
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For the immediate future, docking on large screens to do substantial work. I think non-technical creative production is likely to remain mobile and on varying size screens with a greater emphasis on physical controls and interfaces. Voice interfaces already work well enough for very basic purposes such as memos and short notes, simple instruction, etc. Those are largely traditional arrangements. Wearable augmented displays have not yet been sufficiently miniaturized and commercialized, but they offer far greater flexibility than a docking station. Magic Leap is making progress, although there are some small outfits that are pursuing healthy compromise solutions for a moderate cost and seem to be closer to production models. End result: some form of keyboard, perhaps foldable or rollable, combined with an AR headset and smartphone base.When laid out, the keyboard may act as physical feedback and a base for the AR system to render a desktop display of significant size while also providing creative content production ability. |
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- BTC operates independent of governments, central banks
For now... Agreed on all points so far. Looking at 2 scenarios, how will BTC react:
1) Massive economic shock / recession / stock market downturn
Would Bitcoin also see a large selloff as the old 'sell what you can, not what you want' meme is lived out?
Are enough people invested in BTC also heavily invested in the stock market, where a stock margin call would lead to a large dumping of BTC?
Would an initial dip be followed by a massive rise in this case (ala gold in 2008)
Would BTC be seen as a safe haven asset and see a tremendous inflow in during this kind of event? (seems possible based on Brexit, Trump).
2) Crack up boom. Dow hits 40,000 etc
Will this see Bitcoin also rise, as in all boats get floated?
Does BTC see its relevance wane, as the good times are here again?
In a shock, yes I see Bitcoin and crypto being liquidated to some extent. High volatility suggests the swings will be greater. Also yes in regard to aligning with equities - crypto has aspects of both currency and equities, so it seems very likely that it will perform as such. |
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MA's latest is on Bitcoin, where he likens the volatility of btc to the crash in mutual funds in the 60's (ie, funds dropped by 80% when the Dow dropped by 25%). He just sees it as an asset with high volatility and not a currency or store of value. But he also says that after the crash, the tech may be the future.
There will undoubtedly be more rises and falls but overall the cryptocurrency field is an entire ecosystem with myriad uses in so many other industries that looking at it as simply an asset class misses the big picture. The bitcoin unit is only part of the whole; without a thorough understanding of the system it can be difficult to assess it holistically. I think Armstrong may have stopped at a mostly superficial comprehension. Since Armstrong first started posting about Bitcoin, he seems to have changed his stance. It has been suspected that there wasn't enough data for Socrates to develop a high-confidence forecast. Whether that has changes, who knows? One thing to note is that Armstrong is calling for the DOW to rise significantly. If anything, crypto would be aligned with private assets and therefore rise along with equities in the near-term. Additionally, Bitcoin is a politician's wet dream: tracking and control with a keystroke. It appeals to all parties but will eventually trap users. |
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As for MA, take out his ECm & talk of super computers and his overall thesis on the collapse of government is quite common. Many macro guys have similar theories, just packaged differently. But to be fair, MA has been saying it a lot longer.
He has also been exceptionally accurate. One thing that has disappointed me is his assessment of Bitcoin, and cryptocurrencies in general. His latest post regarding Bitcoin indicates that he considers it to be just like any other single-class asset. I am left wondering whether he has genuinely studied the system to understand the intricacies and how it differs from any other asset, not to mention the scripting capabilities. |
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“The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated.”
The pattern for LTC is 25 times longer in duration than the corresponding pattern from March.
Thus we'll see a low of 0.0095 more than once before we will see a high 0f 0.05 later this year. Patience is a virtue but taking profits above 0.01 every time is for the wise.
I heard that many users of this forum are still looking for a decentralized forum alternative due to Theymos taking much BTC in donations and then never improving the software of the forum.
The end of this nonsense is near.
I have to wonder whether speculating in the speculation thread was what got you banned or if it was something you said that was a little too close to the structure of a behind-the-scenes plan? Will be watching price movement. Bitcoin and all of the majors (ETH, XMR, DASH, ZEC, DASH, XRP) are up except for LTC which appears to be inversely correlated. What's especially nice about that is that the possibility exists to remain entirely in crypto without having to jump out to fiat for large trading profits. Of course, chasing money is an annoying necessity that we could all do without... |
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I think a 2000-2500 target is possible with earlier levels among the 1500 to 1700 range, but beware current issues surrounding some exchanges. USDT is a questionable "asset" that is pegged to the US dollar. However, pegs inevitably fail. There has been as much as an 11% disparity between the value of USD and USDT which is highly disturbing - a peg is supposed to maintain 1:1 value. If it fails it may cause major issues with Bitfinex due to using USDT as its USD reserves, and lesser troubles for Poloniex which uses USDT but at much lower volume. If there is trouble at Bitfinex, the stresses may have been increased considerably due to rapid withdrawals from the cold wallet [1] during April. The cold wallet balance has been halved since then and might simply indicate trader jitters, but worries about Bitcoin exchanges have tended to be well-founded. With Bitcoin breaking out to new highs it seems sensible to me that it's worthwhile to simply hodl in a secure wallet. Should the need to sell arise, simply transfer the desired amount to an exchange. Whether you choose to take action or do nothing based on the above information is up to you; being aware simply helps in the decision-making process. [1] https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/3D2oetdNuZUqQHPJmcMDDHYoqkyNVsFk9r |
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Because Bitfinex is making news that they can pay back the former thefts which no one thought to be mathematically possible, so it means that Bitfinex is trying to raise confidence so more people will put their money there, so it indicates they need money. It also indicates they stole the money from Peter to pay Paul. The likely source of the money is perhaps coming from printing USDT out-of-thin-air.
The conversion of BFX tokens to shares of Bitfinex completed and was the catalyst for full token redemption on the exchange. Interestingly, the amount of capital raised is 54513657[1]. This number is quite close to the total authorized line and, since Bitfinex is associated, I have to wonder whether there's any connection. I've been opposed to the idea of a pegged unit well before Coinapult had its "locks" and still view such a system with suspicion for anything beyond very short-term utilization. [1] https://bnktothefuture.com/search/pitchesIs your thought process including the possibility that USDT was issued surreptitiously by paying USD to themselves, then traded to repurchase the BFX tokens which were subsequently redeemed for equity in Ifinex? With the final redemption of remaining BFX tokens by paying themselves. While it is true Ifinex is the parent company of Bitfinex, they are also a subsidiary of another company. DigIfinex is the name of this conglomerate, which has relations with RenRenbee Limited, Tether Holdings Limited, and various other Bitcoin corporations. No big surprises there, although it makes one wonder how useful ownership in Ifinex will be in the long run.  (chart of alleged corporate structure) So a possible scenario which could explain recent events is Bitfinex pretending to be blocked from sending USD so as to force those who want to trade BTC to USD to either trade for USDT or move BTC to an exchange which can do USD withdrawals. So if exchanges have fractional reserves of BTC, then Bitfinex for example could be employing the hypothesized USDT hoard to purchase BTC to maintain sufficient reserves for increased (possibly accelerating) BTC withdrawals. The rapidly accelerating BTC price over the past days concomitant with the widening USD/USDT spread could potentially be explained this way, combined with specifically timed miner manipulation of the public confidence leading to wild price swings. OKCoin blocked USD deposits, which could potentially have the motive of increasing perceived legitimacy of Bitfinex's claim, and more plausibly to block Bitfinex withdrawals in BTC from being exchanged for USD on OKCoin (since no new USD can enter to offer on bid) thus to keep more cows locked inside the hypothesized USDT slaughterhouse of this hypothesized speculative explanation. Knowing that Bitfinex is having trouble processing USD means that in order to leave the exchange, you must first buy a digital currency and move the money off. For most people, this is just easier than dealing with the current USD restrictions.
Although it's unlikely the bullish move is entirely due to users exiting the exchange, it likely plays a role and may partly explain why Bitfinex's price is so much higher than the other exchanges.
If Bitfinex and USDT default, would Poloniex also default? Thus far, the evidence presented by @tunctioncloud seems to suggest that Poloniex's exposure is small. But what if there is a generalized stampede of withdrawals from exchanges employing USDT as the only mechanism for trading BTCUSD pairs. Could there be a domino effect on Poloniex if Bitfinex defaults? I'm trading tokens on Poloniex so I am genuinely concerned. I'd appreciate all well reasoned discussion of this matter. I cannot rule out suspect activity on the part of Bitfinex through use of USDT. There are questions about Poloniex as well, though again uncertain about the veracity. I do not think Poloniex would default and the relative holdings of USDT are minor compared to other coins, the exchange being primarily crypto-crypto and explicitly showing USDT as such whereas Bitfinex only displays it as USD. Regardless, I am highly cautious at this point regarding having funds on exchanges. If Bitsquare had volume, I would certainly be using that instead of most others. |
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Because Bitfinex is making news that they can pay back the former thefts which no one thought to be mathematically possible, so it means that Bitfinex is trying to raise confidence so more people will put their money there, so it indicates they need money. It also indicates they stole the money from Peter to pay Paul. The likely source of the money is perhaps coming from printing USDT out-of-thin-air.
The conversion of BFX tokens to shares of Bitfinex completed and was the catalyst for full token redemption on the exchange. Interestingly, the amount of capital raised is 54513657[1]. This number is quite close to the total authorized line and, since Bitfinex is associated, I have to wonder whether there's any connection. I've been opposed to the idea of a pegged unit well before Coinapult had its "locks" and still view such a system with suspicion for anything beyond very short-term utilization. [1] https://bnktothefuture.com/search/pitches |
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have being played for just a few days.
is the game over lol?
Who knows? I'm displeased with the site being down for over a day now. At least Dwarf Fortress has a consistent UI... CK is gimmicky and disjointed with so many translations and obfuscations that it may as well be called Micro Manage Everything. At least the command window should be available at all times. Promising, but currently highly disappointing. |
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What is the EWO in your second chart ?
I'd assume Elliot Wave Oscillator. |
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BTC has been rising on declining volume. That indicates to me that this rise will not make it to a new ATH before it falters. I am sticking with my theory that BTC is range bound until Litecoin gets SegWit.
Yes, 1255-1275 is an area of significant resistance. The battle is at 1165 so I expect we can see a decline to around 1000-1100 if we don't get beyond 1280. Beyond 1280 the 1400-1440 range comes into play. This pullback has brought us back to the uptrend line, which I expected we would come back to test one more time and especially given BTC is up today.
Given the steepness of that uptrend line (on the right chart quoted below) we either have to fail and crash or start another leg up soon. Failing and crashing seems to not be very likely. So I say load up now on the LTC you want for the next run up. If that uptrend line holds, we have to be back above 0.009 within 6 days 0.011 within 2 weeks. So that is a minimum 40% increase in your BTC within 2 weeks if the uptrend line holds (which it has thus far throughout this crazy volatile rise).
Also today we broke out above that downward blue channel in the left chart quoted below!
Thoughts?
The BTCe charts are a little different but show long-term trends from a point when Poloniex was not the dominant LTC exchange. There is a long-term downtrend line that is now sitting at a little above LTCBTC 0.01 and had been breached on April 5-6th but not closed above on a daily basis. Once we close above that line there should be a run toward 0.015-0.02 and eventually ATH. On both charts, the downtrend channel has been broken out of. Now we just have to see whether we trend sideways for a bit like ETH or resume the uptrend. Speaking of ETH, it is only a few days away from a potential breakout, probably to the upside. |
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My new speculative theory is he wants us to feel like we are on a yoyo that he controls in order to incite the MOB to break out their pitch forks.
Litecoin hashrate seems to be varying widely. I have not done the math to see how much variance is attributable to the range.  |
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They will raise the transaction fees so high that your BTC isn't even enough to pay the transaction fee, so it will be impossible for you to spend them on chain.
What might that threshold be - 10 BTC, 100, 1000...? At the point where there may be only a few million Bitcoin-holding entities, wouldn't anonymity be broken due to blockchain analysis methods combined with the reduced user base? Or would agreements be adhered to at the top, creating a glass ceiling barrier to the Bitcoin billionaire gentleman's club? |
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